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Independence refers to correlation, or rather, the lack thereof. Ford + GM are not independent bets. Ford + Chiquita are.
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Feb 22, 2017 22:31
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Kk that's more or less what I figured I was just having trouble with my words this fine Wednesday 
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Feb 22, 2017 22:44
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Moridin920 posted:Do independent bets in this context mean bets made with independent strategies/reasons for making the bet? As in, if I think (purely for example) solar as an industry will improve and buy shares in 5-6 different solar companies based on that thesis, that's still just 1 independent bet - or am I misreading it? Yup, pretty much. Incidentally, this is why professionals usually hedge their market exposure. About half of the day-to-day variance of a stock is due to the market as a whole going up or down, and that variance is shared among all stocks. That dramatically lowers your breadth. The solution is to take an opposite position in an S&P500 futures (or ETFs), which cancels out the market movement, leaving the net returns on your stocks independent. (The downside to this is that the S&P500 tends to go up by 10%/year all on it's own. If you're market-neutral, then you obviously don't have that benefit)
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Feb 22, 2017 23:08
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Time posted:Also, with current case law, insider trading in the US is a lot more loosely defined than it used to be. Shadier funds will have a "social component" to the interview stage now where you log into LinkedIn for your interviewer and they cull your connections to be scored on a sliding scale Like, has this happened to you? I've never heard of this from anyone I know, but I'm not exactly in the same area.
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Feb 23, 2017 01:15
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ohgodwhat posted:Like, has this happened to you? I've never heard of this from anyone I know, but I'm not exactly in the same area. It did not happen to me, but I can name 5 or 6 places where I know for a fact it did happen. Current rulings mean Steve cohen wouldn't have had to plead out. It's a hosed up ruling
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Feb 23, 2017 02:16
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coffeetable posted:Quotin my own advice This second option fits, as it is more about learning for me. Is investopedia a good simulator compared to marketwatch in OP? I figure I'll do some more reading and such as I have no read anything you have listen, and grow some of my discretionary budget in an Index. Harry Potter on Ice posted:Why so many picks? Any specific sectors? Do you have any knowledge that would give you a slight edge? My sector of knowledge is in healthcare and information security (I do HIPPA compliance, so a mix of IT, auditing, and HR), and I would do most of my picks from those.
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Feb 23, 2017 05:28
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Covered half my TSLA short at 260.89.
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Feb 23, 2017 16:02
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ryanbruce posted:FSLR earnings come out and they beat expectations, stock goes up 1.5% AH. Wake up in the morning, it's down 5%. And subsequently dropped for almost a 9% loss by end of the day yesterday. And today is up almost 10%. 
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Feb 23, 2017 16:57
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Time for me to buy some additional NVDA.
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Feb 23, 2017 17:12
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Agronox posted:Covered half my TSLA short at 260.89. And out of the rest at 257.19. Turned into a decent little trade. I still think bearish is the way to be on this, but this is the kind of position you'd have to babysit and I don't really want to do that.
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Feb 23, 2017 17:35
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Josh Lyman posted:I swapped NVDA for AAPL on Friday. 
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Feb 23, 2017 19:03
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some_weird_kid posted:And subsequently dropped for almost a 9% loss by end of the day yesterday. And today is up almost 10%. I'm still down 11% so it's welcome to go up for a while longer, kthx
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Feb 23, 2017 21:43
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Hey all you FSLR/solar guys: are you still pessimistic future of solar energy, say in the next 6 months to a year?
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Feb 23, 2017 22:12
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I'm hopeful that Trump doesn't kill solar but with shenanigans like what Wyoming is doing, it's still on rocky ground. PS: Things you shouldn't do: Look back at old trades and regret opportunities. I bought my first AMZN at $309 and sold at 691 after the drop back in June. Never bought back in because I'm an idiot 
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Feb 23, 2017 22:32
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:Hey all you FSLR/solar guys: are you still pessimistic future of solar energy, say in the next 6 months to a year? Demand is good, pricing is bad for the panels. Someone is going to have to go belly up or demand is going to need to explode. I don't see this happening in under a year. I am talking utility sized installs not roof top. Even I am not crazy enough to invest in rooftop solar. I have some standards.
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Feb 23, 2017 23:14
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gary oldmans diary posted:sa told me to invest in halberd futures weeks ago and i didnt listen
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Feb 24, 2017 00:43
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Solar probably would have imploded last year if the tax credit wasn't extended. The problem is still pricing. A new natural gas plant or equivalent generating capacity wind farm are nearly the same price. No non-heavily subsidized power company can justify the price increase to go to solar for a large rollout.
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Feb 24, 2017 03:19
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The day after Trump was elected, I didn't buy prison stocks. In the 3 1/2 months since, I didn't buy prison stocks. I sold FCX earlier this week and didn't know what to do with the cash, but I didn't buy prison stocks. Then news came out this afternoon that the Trump DoJ is gonna grow private prisons, and I still could've bought in after hours, but I didn't buy prison stocks. Maybe I'll buy some prison stocks tomorrow.
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Feb 24, 2017 03:23
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Sunday, Trump will announce all those convicted of drug related offenses at the federal level will face the death penalty, sending private prison stocks plummeting.
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Feb 24, 2017 04:36
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zharmad posted:Solar probably would have imploded last year if the tax credit wasn't extended. The problem is still pricing. A new natural gas plant or equivalent generating capacity wind farm are nearly the same price. No non-heavily subsidized power company can justify the price increase to go to solar for a large rollout. Dude no, you have no idea what you are talking about whatsoever. I don't want to type a huge rebuttal out, just loving Google what you are talking about before you start talking. Josh Lyman posted:The day after Trump was elected, I didn't buy prison stocks. Those will be a really good short in about 3.5yrs. that is a horrific industry greasyhands fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Feb 24, 2017 |
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Feb 24, 2017 05:35
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So uh http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/320902-white-house-hints-at-crackdown-on-recreational-marijuana Weed stocks!
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Feb 24, 2017 10:59
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Short weed, long prisons. Reverse in 3 years. Is this the new chicken?
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Feb 24, 2017 15:46
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Into CXW, fully invested, 
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Feb 24, 2017 16:03
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Josh Lyman posted:Into CXW, fully invested, I try not to let my moral hangups mess with my business too much but the long play on CCA isn't a trade I'd be comfortable with looking at myself in the mirror.
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Feb 24, 2017 16:33
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It would need to be a huge potential upswing with insider knowledge for me to even consider buying prison stocks. Its basically the modern equivalent of investing in the slave trade.
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Feb 24, 2017 18:08
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Time is a flat circle http://www.itbusiness.ca/news/ibms-darkest-chapter-controversy-over-second-world-war/16394
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Feb 24, 2017 19:04
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Jesus, someone put this poor woman on suicide watch:quote:"we were not able to overcome the secular changes in the industry related to shopping habits. These changes appear to have had a bigger impact on our store business than we had expected. We recognize we need to make dramatic changes in how we operate the business.” —Macy’s CFO Karen Hoguet
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Feb 24, 2017 19:18
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The Macy's chart looks like a good predictor of major economic downturns. I'm only half joking.
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Feb 24, 2017 19:30
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Hey, Venda's back!
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Feb 24, 2017 19:49
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Solice Kirsk posted:Hey, Venda's back! Yup. The ban was worth it to make the front page joke directly to Lowtax. Classic poo poo.
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Feb 24, 2017 19:51
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orange sky posted:So uh God dangit Trumpster, weed is money! You love money!
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Feb 24, 2017 19:52
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Bought some VSLR @3.50 and some HASI @ 19.69
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Feb 24, 2017 |
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Feb 24, 2017 21:11
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VUZI is starting to finally make a step or two towards legitimacy. Their main smart glasses product got FCC certified in January, which was the last hurdle before they could launch. Today they're spiking up because Toshiba just announced they're commissioning Vuzix to develop a specialized version for them.
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Feb 24, 2017 21:48
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greasyhands posted:Bought some VSLR @3.50 and some HASI @ 19.69 Out of curiosity, what's the thought on VSLR? I admit I haven't looked at it since SUNE blew up.
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Feb 24, 2017 22:03
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greasyhands posted:Dude no, you have no idea what you are talking about whatsoever. I don't want to type a huge rebuttal out, just loving Google what you are talking about before you start talking. Actually, wind is currently the second cheapest based on eia data from 2014, behind natural gas. Wind costs have reduced every year since 2014, with some sources pointing to a 25% drop in one year. I know you've argued the long game for solar, I'm just curios what you think is going to fundamentally change on both the business side and consumer side that will make solar the preferred option and put it ahead of other, cheaper to build generation techniques.
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Feb 25, 2017 03:32
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zharmad posted:Actually, wind is currently the second cheapest based on eia data from 2014, behind natural gas. Wind costs have reduced every year since 2014, with some sources pointing to a 25% drop in one year. I know you've argued the long game for solar, I'm just curios what you think is going to fundamentally change on both the business side and consumer side that will make solar the preferred option and put it ahead of other, cheaper to build generation techniques. EIA data from 2014????? Are you serious? Do you have any idea what solar prices have done over the last 2 years? Solar is already coming in cheaper,unsubsidized, than both wind and nat gas. Solar is unstoppable at this point, the biggest problem is the panels are, for the most part just commodities(FSLR being the exception, and *maybe* SPWR's high efficiency panels) and the margins are going to be thin. I havent read this article, Ive gotta run but I googled real quick (which you obviously havent done) https://qz.com/871907/2016-was-the-year-solar-panels-finally-became-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-just-wait-for-2017/ greasyhands fucked around with this message at 04:12 on Feb 25, 2017 |
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Feb 25, 2017 04:10
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What you linked shows that it's cheaper in 30 countries. It isn't saying its cheaper unsubsidized. Example: China is making a huge investment in solar, but that doesn't automatically translate into an unstoppable train. I'm not saying its not going to stop coming down in price or the market will completely dry up, but there isn't anything there that's convincing me that publicly traded solar companies are going to become breakaway successes where money should be invested over other opportunities. As far as the eia source, the data relates to us solar companies which was published last month. Which directly relates to the topic at hand. The article you link deals heavily with carbon taxes as a factor of driving cost down, which is hardly solar standing on its own. I've googled plenty, but it's not on me to prove your point.
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Feb 25, 2017 04:31
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Non actual investment thoughts from an idiot: a lot of government policy goes into energy policy, and it has a big stench of weird ideology related to politics. The rational bet is solar energy, but you will probably lose money making that bet for a long time.
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Feb 25, 2017 07:47
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I've been long VSLR for a while and finally getting paid, but wonder why the stock is moving now
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Feb 25, 2017 15:48
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Investing in solar is kinda weird, anyways. The profit / revenue opportunity offered by solar is to the bottom line of utility companies, not top-line sales growth of panel manufacturers. It's like looking at the early internet boom and then investing in cable manufacturers because "they'll need a lot of cable". Sure... except it's mostly low-margin commodity crap. The real investment would have been with comcast / time warner, and if you were real sharp maybe you'd have seen what opportunities other companies could have with higher bandwidth and look into YouTube / Netflix. FSLR has a technology lead due to their manufacturing process, but it's still looking in the wrong place if you want make money, imo. Agnostically, who does solar benefit? Anyone who wants shitloads of cheap power. Who dat?
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Feb 26, 2017 00:44
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