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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Subjunctive posted:

On the other hand, who cares about paper losses if people aren't going to sell? If my house goes down to $500K, my property taxes and insurance will drop!

If everyone loses 50% overnight, you are still paying the same thing for property tax. If _solely_ your property loses 50% of your assessed value, you will pay 50% less taxes.

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Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

For someone who could actually truly afford their house a crash is just going to be sad but not hurt them in any way directly, they just won't have as nice of a retirement as they hoped. The problem is a shocking large number of people have bought far far more house than they can actually afford and are basing their entire finances and lives around the price going up forever. Also the crash will cause massive unemployment and economic problems since what, 40% of our economy is housing related now.

You've lost your job, your wife has been reduced to part time, and your 800k house could maybe get 600k but there's a massive panic of sellers so you might not even get that. You can't afford to ride it out because you have negative savings, you have no buffer, you have to sell within a couple months or you're hosed.

This is the point some of us might be able to maybe afford something, if we're still employed. It's also the point the government throws billions at the banks and passes laws protecting middle class homeowners from being foreclosed on to help create a "soft landing". People will support privatizing healthcare and selling off all public assets if it means keeping a 3 car roof in Langley over their truck equity.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Most of Canada has recourse loans, so if you're underwater and you sell well... :downs: If you suddenly can't afford the payments and are forced to sell, you will still be paying the difference to the lender.

Here is something some of you may want to look at https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/jufa/jufa_018.cfm

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Risky Bisquick posted:

If everyone loses 50% overnight, you are still paying the same thing for property tax. If _solely_ your property loses 50% of your assessed value, you will pay 50% less taxes.

Yeah, that's true.

Reince Penis
Nov 15, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Risky Bisquick posted:

Most of Canada has recourse loans, so if you're underwater and you sell well... :downs: If you suddenly can't afford the payments and are forced to sell, you will still be paying the difference to the lender.

Here is something some of you may want to look at https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/jufa/jufa_018.cfm

It's not a house of cards, it's a homeowner equity of cards.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Risky Bisquick posted:

Most of Canada has recourse loans, so if you're underwater and you sell well... :downs: If you suddenly can't afford the payments and are forced to sell, you will still be paying the difference to the lender.

Here is something some of you may want to look at https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/jufa/jufa_018.cfm

Only if they seek it, which didn't happen in the US for whatever reason

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice

mastershakeman posted:

Only if they seek it, which didn't happen in the US for whatever reason

Do you mean homeowners in the USA were selling instead of allowing their house to go into foreclosure? I have no idea why they would do this as they are then taking on the losses that the bank would otherwise incur. With a non-recourse mortgage the borrower can walk away - they lose their invested equity but they're not on the hook for any shortfall when the bank later sells the house.

e: oops, added missing 'non-'

Cold on a Cob fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Feb 24, 2017

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Cold on a Cob posted:

Do you mean homeowners in the USA were selling instead of allowing their house to go into foreclosure? I have no idea why they would do this as they are then taking on the losses that the bank would otherwise incur. With a non-recourse mortgage the borrower can walk away - they lose their invested equity but they're not on the hook for any shortfall when the bank later sells the house.

^

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Cold on a Cob posted:

Do you mean homeowners in the USA were selling instead of allowing their house to go into foreclosure? I have no idea why they would do this as they are then taking on the losses that the bank would otherwise incur. With a non-recourse mortgage the borrower can walk away - they lose their invested equity but they're not on the hook for any shortfall when the bank later sells the house.

e: oops, added missing 'non-'

no i mean that even though the lender got a judgment for the shortfall against the person, they never collected. I worked tens of thousands of foreclosure cases in the usa and only heard of it happening one time ever and that was a 'this time its personal' type case.

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender

quote:

I joined this group for perspective. Too many of my peers need a buoyant market to survive as they're not actually good agents. While I appreciate the alternative perspective, fear-mongering and opinion without facts don't help at all. Here's what I see:
Fear-mongering pessimists: "Sales are down 37% from last February!!" (true fact). Conclusion: "the market is falling!" (uneducated opinion)
Blind optimists: "Inventory is down 32% from last February!!" (true fact). Conclusion: "prices are going up!" (uneducated opinion)
Facts:
-Fraser Valley listings in February 2016: 2633; sales 1796
-Fraser Valley listings in February 2017: 1790; sales 1123
Actual difference in sale ratio: 5% (nothing worth writing home about)
The truth is, the market isn't crashing. And while it may begin to fall, the odds are not much greater than the odds prices may begin to rise. Cherry picking stats to bolster uneducated, preconceived opinions is "fake news." Both the pessimists and optimists are guilty of that.
Keep in mind that no matter how ludicrous it is to start predicting snow daily in Death Valley during the summer, one day eventually you will be right. It may take months or year(s) but you will eventually be right. It doesn't make you intelligent or smart. People have been predicting a Vancouver crash for over 25 years.....eventually it will crash. It may not be until 40 years in the future....who knows....but to constantly predict it without it's eminent arrival doesn't give us the right to gloat in self-satisfaction of finally being right after all our years of fear-mongering and being wrong.
I thank [group owner] for permitting both side in this forum, as it truly is eye opening but let's not loose sight of the truth and facts while trying to determine where our market is actually going.

:qq:

Reince Penis
Nov 15, 2007

by R. Guyovich
There was a pretty good takedown of the Greenbelt-is-restricting-supply argument today in the G&M

quote:

It’s in that context that Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO, probes the calls by some industry players to remove part of the Ontario Greenbelt, “as if that would be a magic bullet to slow the recent pace of home-price growth.” Mr. Kavcic says it’s unlikely that would be the case.

He points to speculation as a more likely cause of the spike in prices.

Many real estate industry players are pointing to a lack of supply in the market as the reason prices are skyrocketing. As buyers compete for the rare listings available, they bid prices into the stratosphere.

Mr. Kavcic says the lack of supply is partly down to a provincial government plan that has been shaping the expansion of Toronto and the surrounding areas since 2006.

At that time, the Ontario Places to Grow Act set targets aimed at containing sprawl. The plan stresses “intensification,” which means new and built-up areas are more likely these days to include townhouses, condos and infill houses. The traditional 50-foot-wide lot with a detached house that many buyers coveted in the 1970s and 80s is a relic of the past, Mr. Kavcic notes.

At the same time, the province designated a greenbelt that protects ecologically sensitive land around the region.

Contrary to popular belief, however, the area is not out of land, Mr. Kavcic says. There is still enough land to support 15 years or more of outward growth, according to some Neptis Foundation estimates, with only 20 per cent of that designated for development used up since 2006.

“Simply removing the Greenbelt, therefore, won’t bring any more supply to the market.”


Mr. Kavcic says intensification is a bigger issue because municipalities are approving more condos, semis and townhouses. Older detached homes are being torn down and the lots divided up.

I hope this can permeate the public consciousness by the next election.

e: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/torontos-runaway-housing-market-heading-toward-a-crash-economists-warn/article34109049/

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice

mastershakeman posted:

no i mean that even though the lender got a judgment for the shortfall against the person, they never collected. I worked tens of thousands of foreclosure cases in the usa and only heard of it happening one time ever and that was a 'this time its personal' type case.

Where was this, if you don't mind me asking? I know recourse mortgages exist in the USA but I've been lead to believe they are fairly uncommon.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Cold on a Cob posted:

Where was this, if you don't mind me asking? I know recourse mortgages exist in the USA but I've been lead to believe they are fairly uncommon.

Illinois, Chicagoland and outlying areas. They're not uncommon at all, the judgments just aren't sought. Probably because bankruptcy would get you out of almost every one of them, but even when rich people (i.e. R. Kelly) owed a few million no one bothered to collect

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I have enough for a down payment on a gorgeous 20 acre parcel on Lasqueti, I could pay it off inside of 15 years and live my hermit dream on the only island in BC which is still full of hermits instead of rich fucks.

The urge to go full retard, it is killing me. :negative:

Wasting
Apr 25, 2013

The next to go

Rime posted:

I have enough for a down payment on a gorgeous 20 acre parcel on Lasqueti, I could pay it off inside of 15 years and live my hermit dream on the only island in BC which is still full of hermits instead of rich fucks.

The urge to go full retard, it is killing me. :negative:

If I weren't tied down to a specific location for work, I would do exactly this. Just not on the west coast

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

quote:


B.C.’s empty home problem moving beyond just Vancouver

Empty homes aren't just a Vancouver problem any more. They are a problem throughout B.C. – some municipalities more than others.

New data from Statistics Canada's 2016 census shows that the story varies from region to region, with Delta seeing a major increase and New Westminster enjoying a significant drop.

"We are struggling to figure out what [the data] is telling us, and what it means, but what makes it even more interesting is the real estate market has been very active in the City of New Westminster, and we've seen significant development and population growth," said New Westminster Mayor Jonathan Cote. "To me, it's showing that, for some reason, the investment in real estate here is being driven by those who actually want to live in the community, as opposed to external factors that might be buying strictly for investment purposes."

New Westminster, one of the region's densest municipalities, saw a 24-per-cent decline in the number of empty homes in the 2011 to 2016 census period. Pitt Meadows saw a 45 per cent drop; Langley a 14 per cent drop; Port Coquitlam and Port Moody also saw small drop-offs. Those regions are filling up instead of emptying out.

Meanwhile, Delta saw a 79-per-cent increase in empty or non-resident occupied homes, followed by White Rock at 35 per cent. Burnaby, North Vancouver, Richmond and Coquitlam also saw significant increases. Vancouver saw a 15-per-cent increase in empty and non-resident units.

A "non resident" home is defined as either empty or occupied by a foreign or temporary resident. But most often, the units are empty. Of all the homes in the region that fall into the category, 87 per cent are unoccupied, according to an Urban Futures report.

Part of the empty-home problem is speculative buying, which can take the form of a flip, a property to be held, or used as short-term rental, such as Airbnb – as opposed to a dwelling that doubles as an asset over time. In Vancouver's downtown – where Coal Harbour is 22.2-per-cent empty or non-resident occupied, and the census tract east of it is 18.2 per cent – the effect of short-term rental and seasonal use is probably playing out. But other, less obvious Vancouver neighbourhoods also show signs of emptiness.

The Marine Gateway neighbourhood has a 24-per-cent non-resident rate, as does Joyce-Collingwood, which is an urban-oriented transit hub. There are 609 empty or non-resident units in Marine Gateway and 791 such units in Joyce-Collingwood neighbourhood, which is Vancouver's densest neighbourhood. That translates into 24.4-per-cent non-resident homes.


The census data was analyzed and compiled by Andy Yan, the director of Simon Fraser University's City Program. Mr. Yan has been studying the empty and under-used homes trend for the past nine years.

"Speculation is one of our prime suspects," says Mr. Yan. "We don't know why, but we know it's concentrated in a few neighbourhoods."

For many, empty or under-used homes are tangible proof of the commodification, or financialization, of housing. There are those who will argue that an increased supply is necessary to subdue the market, to remove the pressure of scarcity. However, housing markets in what Mr. Yan calls "hedge cities," such as Vancouver, are fuelled by an unprecedented wealth coming from outside. Without addressing the speculative nature of the market, how much effect will supply have?

Mr. Cote says the majority of buyers in New Westminster are from Vancouver.

"Density is an ingredient in this question but there are other factors at play on how a neighbourhood functions, at least according to my definition of what a thriving neighbourhood looks like," says Mr. Cote. "An empty high-rise tower or half-empty high-rise tower is not going to have a lot of vitality for the neighbourhood.

"We are very dense, and densifying significantly, but obviously that densification in terms of land use is translating into people living in the units … the reality is, even without the 50-storey towers, New Westminster is one of the more dense communities in all of metro Vancouver."

Assistant professor at SFU's School of Public Policy, Josh Gordon says the numbers probably show the migration patterns of young families.

"It appears that some suburban municipalities have seen falling rates of non-resident occupied units as young families move away from the more expensive central areas in search of affordable housing options," he says. "So, while the more expensive areas see an increase in non-resident occupied housing, some cheaper areas experience the opposite pattern. I wouldn't ascribe this dynamic to any local policy initiatives, though, at this point."

United Nations rapporteur on adequate housing, Leilani Farha, has completed her report on the financialization of housing, which she presents to the UN on Wednesday. She began her research when attending a housing conference in Vancouver last summer, where she saw the impact firsthand. She can't speak specifically about Vancouver, but she can speak about the huge crisis that is the buying of residential properties for capital gain. It is no small irony, for example, that the new president of the United States has made his fortune in residential real estate, or that his newest chief adviser is also the chief executive officer of The Blackstone Group, the world's largest residential real estate private-equity firm. In her paper, she says that Blackstone purchased $10-billion (U.S.) worth of American homes that had foreclosed after the economic downturn of 2008 and 2009. Blackstone now manages $102-billion worth of property.

In the first quarter of 2015, limited liability companies made 58 per cent of all property purchases in the United States, worth more than $3-million, mostly in cash.

The report also notes that when remote investors own rented homes, money flows out of communities, adding to the concentration of global wealth. Airbnb has contributed to "escalating prices of housing and changes to the make-up of neighbourhoods," without any benefit to the local population.

"Part of what this report is trying to say is that we need a whole lot more than just building. We need a bigger shift, something much more fundamental," she said in a phone interview. "It's very clear to me that not only are we not building for low income people – I'm not sure we're building for people.

"We are building for corporations, for investment, for secure investment, for return on investment. It may ultimately be about the wealth of a few people, sure, but this is not people driven."

Housing is especially not people-driven when there are no people living in the units.

"While I do find many cities are very closely allied with developers, part of that is based on their lack of a funding base, so they see this as an opportunity to have money flow to the city. What I find concerning is that investment in existing housing does not flow to the community, especially when that investment is a vacant owner. They don't live there. So how does that exactly trickle down to the local community? It doesn't. The person isn't even there to go to the local grocery store to buy anything. They aren't using services. The unit is empty. So in those cases, how is that affecting or benefiting the local community?"

Mr. Yan's data, and Ms. Farha's UN paper, aren't attempting to provide definitive answers, but rather, are the start of a conversation, they both say.

"One would think that when it's such a huge part of the world's economies, [residential real estate] would be the subject of debate at a high level," says Ms. Farha. "Where is that conversation happening? So far, it's not."


Some areas have been heavily targeted by speculators, and have population declines, while other areas that have seen redevelopment, such as Mount Pleasant, don't show the same effect. I hope someone does deeper research on this topic. It would be interesting to know why this happened.

No doubt when the big Marine Gateway projects were approved by council I'm sure the councillors made little speeches about how they were adding more badly needed residential units to the city and were creating a new neighbourhood. What actually happened though was that many of those units were purchased for investment purposes and Vancouverites chose to move to New West and Langley instead. The city needs to know what went wrong here. Was there some technical aspect of the project itself that lent itself to this conclusion, or was some level of investor action inevitable and it happened to concentrate itself at Marine Gateway due to marketing choices or some other factors?

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender
Once again New Westminster proves its rental housing policy is an answer to Burnaby's feckless mayor stating that it's not his problem.

quote:

“Somehow this is the local government’s fault?” Corrigan objects. “You can’t magically manufacture social housing out of nothing. If the federal or provincial governments, who have all of the assets, aren’t paying... [that’s] the public making choices.”

Go gently caress yourself, Derek.

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost
The most FYGM of mayors. At least Gregor pretends to give a gently caress.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
actually municipalities can't do anything about housing stock. people in this very thread have told me so.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

The Butcher posted:

The most FYGM of mayors. At least Gregor pretends to give a gently caress.

Reminder: The BCNDP support Corrigan and his housing policies because our left wing are literally the worst.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Femtosecond posted:

No doubt when the big Marine Gateway projects were approved by council I'm sure the councillors made little speeches about how they were adding more badly needed residential units to the city and were creating a new neighbourhood. What actually happened though was that many of those units were purchased for investment purposes and Vancouverites chose to move to New West and Langley instead. The city needs to know what went wrong here. Was there some technical aspect of the project itself that lent itself to this conclusion, or was some level of investor action inevitable and it happened to concentrate itself at Marine Gateway due to marketing choices or some other factors?

I've actually spent a fair bit of time in Marine Gateway because my girlfriend used to live there. The tenants/owners are terrible and common spaces like hallways, etc started to look like poo poo within one year of the building opening. It essentially has no amenities and strata fees are low so I imagine they'll just let it get shittier and shittier.

re: 'investments', there were huge lineups at presale (this was about 3 years ago, now), all units sold out instantly, and it was mostly Chinese people looking to buy. Basically what it was like for any condo presale in Vancouver 3 years ago.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Speaking of Marine Gateway and transit oriented development projects.

quote:

Liberals pursue density at transit hubs as answer to the housing crunch

The Metro Vancouver housing affordability crunch was one of the biggest B.C. news stories of 2016 and triggered Premier Christy Clark’s most dramatic policy moves of that year.

Clark initially resisted intervening in a red-hot housing market that saw an explosion in home prices, driving the cost of a detached home beyond the reach of non-millionaires.

But as home prices went up, Clark’s approval ratings went down. Faced with an election in spring, she suddenly revered and executed a bold intervention.

Last summer’s 15-per-cent tax on foreign home buyers cooled off the highest end of the market. Then Clark rolled out $700 million worth of interest-free loans for qualified first-time homebuyers (foreign buyers excluded, of course).

On the surface, these aggressive moves seem counteractive. One was meant to cool off buyer demand, while the other is meant to simulate it.

Either way, the Liberals seemed pleased with the way both programs were received by voters. But the housing issue is still a tricky one for the Liberals as Clark prepares to hit the campaign trail is search of another election win in May.

For one thing, the price of Metro Vancouver housing is still sky high, though some analysts predict a softening this year.

And then there’s the missing piece of the Liberals’ agenda: How to increase more housing supply.

Last week’s B.C. budget featured few new housing initiatives, though Finance Minister Mike de Jong repeated a now-familiar theme: the need to get more homes built more quickly and put up for sale.

“We can’t just focus on getting more people into the market,” de Jong said. “On its own, without adding to supply, that’s just going to drive prices higher.”

How is the government going to get more housing on the market? By pressuring municipalities to speed up building approvals and allow increased density — like taller condo towers — along transit routes.


The government is unhappy with what it views as the slow place of municipal building approvals. One of the government’s prime culprits? The City of Vancouver.

“They’re really slow — they’re known for it,” Housing Minister Rich Coleman told me. “I was talking to a builder and he told me just the building permit takes nine to 12 months to get. Not just the zoning or the development permit, just the building permit.”

The government released a list of six Lower Mainland municipalities that have a combined backlog of more than 100,000 proposed housing units (see breakdown below).

Some of the homes on the list are waiting for municipal zoning approval. Others are waiting for building permits. Still others are in the “concept planning” stage.

The City of Vancouver doesn’t like being singled out.

“The fact that they’re including ‘concept planning’ in their data tells you all you need to know,” Kevin Quinlan, chief of staff to Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, said in an email.

“That’s when a developer has initial conversations/proposal to the city. There’s nothing to approve at that point. It’s like saying there are 25,000 new babies waiting to be born and you include people who are thinking about buying a crib.”

Quinlan said the city is actually processing record volumes of new building approvals, pointing to nearly 26,000 new housing starts in December alone.

But de Jong said the government is developing a plan to get municipalities moving faster.

“We want to engage with communities to say how do we do this better, faster, more efficiently together,” he said, adding that the government might be willing to provide additional resources to municipalities to speed up building approvals.

Meanwhile, the government also wants to see more high-density building near transit stations, especially along Vancouver’s proposed Broadway SkyTrain extension toward the University of B.C.

Coleman said transit-linked densification will hinge on talks among the government, municipalities, TransLink and real-estate developers.

“It makes sense to put density around SkyTrain,” Coleman said. “You don’t build a $2-billion transit line and not have the population to support it.”

The government is considering a “transit-supporting levy” on developers to help pay for the expanded transit services. It would work this way: In return for a municipality allowing taller apartment towers near a transit hub, the developer would contribute cash to the transit expansion.

“Let’s say you’ve got density of 100 units on a piece of property,” Coleman said. “If they up-zone for another 50 units, would the developer consider investing in transit in that area? It just makes sense.”


But this has both developers and municipalities feeling nervous.

The idea “sounds like a complex new way for Victoria to impose the entire cost of transportation investment on municipalities,” Vancouver Coun. Geoff Meggs wrote in a blog post.

Meggs points out that municipalities already collect “community amenity contributions” from developers to pay for parks, community centres and child-care centres near new housing developments. He worries the provincial government is cutting in on municipal turf.


Developers, meanwhile, are concerned about new costs that could inflate housing prices.

“In principle, it makes sense that new development should contribute to the cost of new transportation needs — but costs always get passed along,” said Anne McMullin, president of the Urban Development Institute.

“It makes housing more costly.”

She warned that if the new costs are too onerous, developers would build elsewhere, defeating the purpose of the transit levy.

With municipalities and developers both wary, Christy Clark might avoid taking any more bold housing action — until after the election, if she wins.


Meggs is right in that the provincial government is simply trying to come up with a way to download more of the costs of public transit onto municipalities. The CoV already does exactly what Coleman describes, but the revenue from that upzoning goes toward public amenities such as parks. The province wants to take this revenue stream away.

If Marine Gateway is any indication these overbuilt condo projects will be bought by investors, be left half empty and they'll do nothing to improve the vacancy rate and lower rents.

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


Yeah, but think about how much money they'll make for investors.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/trump-tower-developer-girds-for-controversial-vancouver-opening/article34138655/

quote:


Trump tower developer girds for controversial Vancouver opening

Joo Kim Tiah takes a breather during a hectic day, reflecting on the long journey to get to the controversial grand opening of Trump International Hotel & Tower Vancouver.

The president of developer Holborn Group is doing some inspections as workers put the finishing touches on the 63-storey high-rise.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who visited the site as a businessman as it began construction in 2013, predicted back then that the luxury condo and hotel tower bearing the Trump name would be a “fantastic success.”

Fast forward to 2017, and Mr. Tiah is preparing to welcome two of Mr. Trump’s sons – Donald Jr. and Eric – to ceremonies on Tuesday that will mark the $360-million building’s official opening.

“It’s taken too long actually, but I’m very excited,” Mr. Tiah told The Globe and Mail, as he stood on the front steps, with the TRUMP sign above his head. “My vision is all coming together, so I’m very happy.”

Mr. Tiah, 37, is also chief executive officer of Malaysia-based TA Global Berhad, which owns the tower that it jointly developed with Holborn. He comes from one of Malaysia’s wealthiest families – his parents are TA Global’s co-founders.

The manager for the 147-room hotel is the Trump Organization. The U.S. President recently handed over control of the company to his sons.

“We are pacing ahead of our budget in terms of hotel bookings. It has been very positive – not just people from overseas but even locals,” Mr. Tiah said.

The Trumps are proud of their hotel-management licensing agreement with Holborn, though for many Vancouver residents, the Trump brand name is an unwelcome addition to the downtown skyline.

Back in late 2015, during Mr. Trump’s quest to become the Republican presidential nominee, civic leaders began lobbying Mr. Tiah to drop the Trump label from the condo and hotel building. Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson has described Mr. Trump as “hateful” for his comments about Muslims and Mexicans, while another local politician said the high-rise would be a “beacon of racism.”

Mr. Tiah is undeterred by critics. “I guess that I can understand. I can see their point of view. But we make it very clear that we’re here to open a hotel, the best hotel,” he said. “There is a big difference between politics and business, and we just don’t get involved with all that stuff. It has nothing to do with us.”

The twisting tower, designed by late Canadian architect Arthur Erickson, is targeting wealthy clientele. A high-end Chinese restaurant, Mott 32, has a menu with decadent offerings such as braised whole dried fish maw with oyster sauce for $880 and whole suckling pig for $395. In the third-floor nightclub called Drai’s, a swimming pool will be covered during evenings to serve as a dance floor.

There is also “The Spa by Ivanka Trump” – which the U.S. President’s oldest daughter helped design. In her role as an executive vice-president of the Trump Organization, Ms. Trump visited the Vancouver site in 2013 and 2014.

Long before Mr. Trump became U.S. President, all 214 Vancouver condo units that were marketed sold by early 2016.

The hotel rooms are part of the first 22 floors, while the condos start on the 23rd floor. Three penthouse condo units, which had assessed values of $11.5-million, $13.7-million and $14.6-million last summer while still unfinished, have not been listed for sale yet.

“The Trump brand has always been good, always been great, even prior to him being the President,” Mr. Tiah said. “When we signed this deal, he had no political aspirations at that point in time. I think the brand is in good hands. It is going to be a good brand for many, many years going forward.”

But critics abound, saying they are worried about potential conflicts of interest between the U.S. President and his worldwide business holdings.

Shari Mountain, a 20-year-old Vancouver event manager, believes the Trump name is toxic. “I’m not a fan. It’s not the most ideal situation,” she said in an interview Friday as she walked by the building. “There is so much controversy in America about Trump and I would much rather not have that kind of world come to Canada.”

Two anti-Trump protests are planned in Vancouver for Tuesday, and she hopes to attend one of the rallies.

Nevertheless, Vancouver is a favourite destination for well-heeled travellers, including those who support Mr. Trump or others who are politically indifferent, said Andy Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program.

“Even though there are some people who will never set foot in Trump tower, there will be many, many others who will,” said Mr. Yan, an urban planner. “There are many wealthy residents and hotel visitors, and that flies in the face of the hippie, granola-eating stereotype. It’s the duality of identities in Vancouver.”

god, brent jang you're loving worthless. lose your fucing job already

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/could-slowing-retail-sales-burst-canadas-housing-bubble/article34138893/

quote:

Could slowing retail sales burst Canada’s housing bubble?

A Conference Board of Canada report concluded that record household debt levels will slow domestic consumer spending, and since the bulk of this debt is mortgage-related, I went in search of a connection between the housing market and consumer spending.

The past 17 years has seen a close relationship between retail spending and housing prices. If it holds, this might be bad news for indebted homeowners.

The chart compares the year-over-year change in domestic retail sales (using a six-month moving average) with the annual change in the Teranet-National Bank Home Price Index Composite 11. Correlation calculations support the thesis of a consistent relationship between the two measures. The data alone does not, of course, prove a causal relationship such as “housing prices drive consumer spending.”

The final portion of the chart shows a distinct divergence between home prices and retail spending. The housing index continued higher while year- over-year sales growth flagged. It’s possible, but not guaranteed, that the Conference Board’s contention that the Canadian consumer is tapped out and looking to repay debt rather than spend, is set to extend to the housing market. If consumers are scrimping at the shopping mall, it’s not a huge jump in logic to assume they are increasingly not inclined to take on mortgage debt to buy a home.

The implications of the chart are open to interpretation to some extent, but there is cause for concern, in my opinion. Falling interest rates between the fall of 2013 and mid-2016 made it easy for Canadians to add debt. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield, on which mortgage rates are based, fell from a high of 2.2 per cent in September, 2013, to a low of 0.49 per cent in February, 2016. This trend made monthly mortgage payments lower and helped spur the housing boom.

The reverse process – rising interest rates – is now evident and mortgage debt is getting more difficult to service. The five-year bond yield has climbed to 1.1 per cent and major lenders are slowly raising mortgage rates.

The real test will come if domestic economic growth picks up and retail spending doesn’t. This would be a clear sign that Canadians are tightening their belts and repaying debt, and falling demand for housing would threaten to put the real estate rally in reverse. Foreign investment in sufficient scale, of course, could hide this trend by replacing waning domestic housing demand.

There are many ways things could play out – retail spending, for example, could start a recovery that closes the divergence on the chart and makes rising home prices more economically explicable – but the relationship between retail-spending growth and national home prices will remain an important indicator to watch.


namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://business.financialpost.com/p...iness-to-retire

quote:

After losing everything in Fort McMurray fires, engineer mulls his readiness to retire — maybe to far north

Situation: Ft. McMurray resident who lost his house wonders whether he can retire in the far north

Solution: Add up company pension, savings, government benefits and check tax rates

The Ft. McMurray fires last year destroyed the home of a petrochemical engineer we’ll call Herb. At age 58, his $400,000 home and three of his four vehicles — two trucks, a snowmobile and an all-terrain scooter, were turned to steel skeletons. His financial assets, a total of $718,300 are intact. He has no debts. He is renting a home until his house is rebuilt. The rent is paid by his insurance company. In financial terms, his risks are well managed. What is uncertain is how his retirement will work if, as he wishes, he moves to the far north, perhaps to the Yukon.

Close to ending his career and almost ready to build a new life in retirement, Herb has to struggle not just with his future income, but also with settlement of a large insurance claim. His good fortune is that he still has his job, adequate insurance for his devastated house, and hefty financial assets. His ill fortune is that, in spite of his financial security, he has to rebuild almost everything material in his life. It is an arduous challenge.

He will eventually get a new home, then put it on the market which will be short of housing for many years. His employer provides defined benefit pensions. His real estate, when rebuilt, will amount to just 35 per cent of his net worth. His expenses are modest, he is a meticulous record keeper, and his career is flourishing. However, with his life still partially in ashes, he needs a sense of direction for his financial assets and retirement in 2017.

“My defined benefit pension plan has several options,” he explains. “Which do I choose? Do I need to delay my retirement for half a year to ensure that my finances are solid for the debt I carry and any truck loan I may take out?”

Family Finance asked Derek Moran, head of Smarter Financial Planning Ltd. in Kelowna, B.C., to work with Herb. “The problem is not financial security,” the planner says. Herb has that with his $7,950 monthly income after tax. Rather, it’s the retirement plan. Before the fire, Herb figured he would quit at before August 2017, during his 57th year. We have to review the numbers to ensure it will still work in his 58th year at the brink of retirement.”

Herb has a hefty cash balance of $40,000 for various costs on his line of credit he expects his insurer to repay. The conflagration sharpened his planning for retirement and for his own mortality. Herb wants $10,000 a month in retirement before tax. Company defined benefit pensions will get him part of the way there. The rest will be up to Herb and his investments.

Pension structure

Herb’s company pension income will be $6,731 per month composed of $5,881 for the base pension and $850 from a bridge to 65. After 65, other benefits kick in that raise the pension to $7,108 per month. That’s $80,772 before 65 and $85,296 after 65.

Herb will also have Canada Pension Plan benefits which, as of 2017, add up to $13,293 a year. Conservatively, allowing for retirement at 58 with CPP benefits beginning at 65, he can count on 90 per cent of maximum benefits or $11,964 a year, total $97,260 a year at 65. He will get full Old Age Security at 65 at a 2017 rate of $6,942 per year, but lose most of it to the clawback which starts at about $74,000 and takes 15 per cent of OAS benefits over that level.

Herb’s $718,300 of financial assets including $40,000 cash, have a combined yield of 4.8 per cent before tax and inflation. If the taxable investment account, which adds up to $520,000, grows at 3 per cent after inflation and is annuitized to be spent in full over 32 years to age 90, it would generate total income and return of capital of $25,500 per year for 32 years beginning in his 58th year. His $140,000 RRSP accounts invested and paid out with the same assumptions would generate $6,866 each year. His Tax-Free Savings Account funds, with an expected balance of $52,300 after 2016 withdrawals are restored in 2017 just prior to retirement or in 2018 when retired, would, with the same assumptions, generate $2,565 each year to age 90.

The sum of these income flows net of TFSA payments would be $113,138 before tax to age 65 and $117,662 after 65. TFSA payouts would add $1,283 a month. He would lose most OAS benefits to the clawback before 65 and virtually all benefits after 65. He would have exceeded his $10,000 per month target retirement income before and after 65.

Using the $113,138 pre-tax figure before 65, Herb would have a 25 per cent average tax rate and be able to keep $84,306 plus the untaxed $2,565 TFSA payments for a total, after-tax income of $86,136 or about $7,200 a month. After 65, the same calculation based on $117,662 pre-tax gross income would provide $7,460 per month.

Herb’s plans to have a home in a town in the far north. His Ft. McMurray home, when rebuilt, can be sold and the $400,000 price applied to his retirement property.

“I think Herb’s finances will take him through retirement with no problems, save that he will have to pay high northern prices for some things such as long flights to warm places, if he chooses to go to them, and fairly high costs for food and some supplies far from major centres,” Moran says. “The fire actually helped him to clear out possessions and to clarify his life. With solid pensions, hefty savings, and the possibility of living with predictable costs, he should have the retirement he wants.”

Loose ends

There are unknowns in the outlook, Moran notes. Herb is an outdoorsman and relishes small town life and the extended winter of the north. On the other hand, access to southern services, foreign travel and even some products shipped long distances from southern suppliers will add to his costs. He has sufficient resources to make a go of retirement in Alberta or points farther north, but it would be wise to take an extended vacation at his preferred latitude to make sure he really want to make it permanent. It’s a great life, but it is not for everyone.

Herb could hedge some medical costs if he buys critical care insurance or long-term care coverage. The costs vary with waiting periods for some programs and there are caps on other programs. On the other hand, he has substantial cash, no family and could, if necessary, afford a good deal of excellent care, Moran notes. What he needs is to ensure he has a will to deal with his assets at death and a medical directive to ensure that his wishes if he becomes very ill are carried out, Moran adds. He should also review his will to provide for a use for his estate when he passes away, Moran suggests.


get hosed herb

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

just more economic slack for the housing market to pick up

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Shari Mountain, a 20-year-old Vancouver event manager, believes the Trump name is toxic

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

I love it how Mr Tiah talks exactly like Donald Trump.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Go look up event planner Vancouver on linked in. Came up with 4000 hits last time I tried

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

I mean this stereotype aside,

quote:

At age 58, his $400,000 home and three of his four vehicles — two trucks, a snowmobile and an all-terrain scooter, were turned to steel skeletons.

Herb actually doesn't seem that deserving of the CanDebt thread honours. $700k in the tank at 58, DB pension, and retiring to some god forsaken shithole further north of Ft Mac, he's actually in a pretty decent position. Not great, but not bad.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

The Butcher posted:

I mean this stereotype aside,


Herb actually doesn't seem that deserving of the CanDebt thread honours. $700k in the tank at 58, DB pension, and retiring to some god forsaken shithole further north of Ft Mac, he's actually in a pretty decent position. Not great, but not bad.

Yeah, Herb has done pretty solid milking the unbelievable good fortune of his generation compared to most of his peers. The only thing which annoys me is that he is apparently unable to realize this and thinks he's not in a solid position.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
That's because Herb probably thinks that his peers, like him, don't have any debts either and have paid everything off.

My mom is like that; I tell her that her neighbors have loans on their cars and she's like "what no, people don't actually do that, do they?"

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Herb saves $4k a month, I think he's gonna be fine.

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

I wish I was Herb except in the cold wet Maritimes instead of the frozen cold North

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://twitter.com/RobynUrback/status/835533894111932417

on the upside the heating bill is cheap

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
You can't even put a "modern" sized house on that lot! :wtc:

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/brace-for-a-sell-off-in-canadian-bonds-because-a-sea-change-is-coming-bmo-warns

quote:

Brace for a sell-off in Canadian bonds because a sea change is coming, BMO warns

Investors should brace for a sell-off in Canadian bonds because the country’s economy is doing better than most people think, according to BMO Capital Markets.

A shift in the perception of Canada’s economic performance, which could begin as soon as April, will send tremors through the markets for government bonds maturing in two to 10 years, Benjamin Reitzes, a senior economist at BMO, wrote in a report dated Feb. 23. BMO doesn’t see the Bank of Canada increasing interest rates before July 2018, yet Reitzes says investors will start pricing in monetary tightening much sooner, sending bond yields higher and prices lower.

“A sea change in the perceptions around Canada is coming, and the persistent bias to be long Canada could catch investors flat-footed,” Reitzes said. “The narrative remains skewed toward potential easing, and ‘when will Canada stumble?’ That’s consistently been our view as well, until now.”

Canada’s economy began its recovery from a downturn in the middle of last year after the wildfires in Alberta. The job market has posted its strongest six-month run in 15 years, BMO argues. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will have to take account of that change too, albeit not at the bank’s next rates meeting on Wednesday.

“It’s going to be hard for Poloz to sound consistently dovish when the economy is evolving as expected, or better,” Reitzes said. “The change of tone won’t come next week, but it could come as soon as April.”

Sell Fives

To best protect against the sell-off, investors should unload five-year bonds or interest-rate swaps and replace them with similar-maturity U.S. securities. Another option is to sell Canada’s five-year bonds and buy the 30-year securities, which won’t be as negatively affected by the sell-off, according to BMO, a unit of Bank of Montreal.

Bonds sold off worldwide in recent months in what was the largest rout in the market for decades. Canada’s government securities outperformed as investors bet the country’s sluggish growth justified low rates. While the Bank of Canada appears on hold, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates in December and seeks to increase them further this year.

Canadian government bonds have lost 0.7 per cent since the end of October, compared with a 2.2 per cent loss for U.S. Treasuries and a 4.6 per cent decline for government bonds worldwide, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index. There’s about a 31 per cent chance the Bank of Canada will increase rates by the end of the year, according to overnight index swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The consensus among economists remains that the next hike is a long way off, and markets have been consistently more dovish than the economist view,” Reitzes said. “Both factors suggest there’s room for a deeper sell-off.”

Bloomberg.com


oh well lol

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://vancouversun.com/news/national/b-c-a-battleground-for-lawyer-loophole-cases

quote:

B.C. is the front line of a developing skirmish between federal Finance Department officials and Canadian lawyers over rules designed to fight money laundering.

In a Supreme Court of Canada ruling in 2015, lawyers won an exemption from reporting requirements that apply to other professionals, such as bankers and real estate agents. The ruling was based on concerns about lawyer-client privilege. B.C. lawyers argued they protect confidentiality while counteracting money laundering risks by policing themselves.

But a growing chorus of international critics say Canada’s lawyer loophole is unique among developed countries, and leaves a dangerous gap in the federal government’s money-laundering defences.

“The law societies claim to have rules in place to prevent money laundering but they are weak, non-transparent and almost never enforced,” said Adam Ross, the author of a recent Transparency International report, which pointed to lawyers and money laundering risks in Vancouver real estate.

“Unless the law societies demand more of their members and start enforcing those rules, billions of dollars will continue to be washed through lawyers’ trusts accounts without any consequence,” he said in an interview. “So far, we’ve seen that self-policing doesn’t work.”

Lawyers must make annual reports of trust account activity to show they comply with B.C. Law Society rules, spokesman David Jordan said.

Trust accounts can be audited if the Society spots indicators of non-compliance in these reports, and trust accounts are also subject to random audits, he said. The society also has rules against large cash transactions, and has cited six lawyers since 2004 for handling cash transactions of over $7,500, according to Jordan.

Sources in Ottawa say the Finance Department is working on legal amendments that would bring Canadian lawyers into the national anti-money laundering system.

The department won’t disclose details. Changes would likely demand more from lawyers in the reporting of potentially suspicious transactions, but it is not clear how amendments could work around the issue of client confidentiality.

“There must be a solution where lawyers are held to higher standards of due diligence and anti-money laundering compliance without compromising attorney-client privilege,” Ross said.

Meanwhile, the B.C. Law Society is hearing what is believed to be the first case alleging that a member allowed a legal trust to be abused through suspicious transactions from offshore.

The Law Society alleges West Vancouver lawyer Donald Gurney allowed $25,845,489 in offshore funds to pass through his trust account between May and November 2013, without providing substantial legal services. It’s alleged Gurney did not ask where the money was coming from, and accepted it “without making reasonable inquiries about the circumstances, including the subject matter and objectives of the retainer,” Jordan said.

“When they fail in that obligation (to protect legal accounts against abuse) there must be robust professional discipline with a view to ensuring public confidence in the profession and its ability to regulate itself,” the Society’s counsel told the hearing panel.

Gurney’s lawyer, however, argued there was no evidence of nefarious transactions in the case, and that B.C. lawyers have no responsibility to investigate the sources of funds placed in their accounts beyond what theirs client tell them. The outcome of the case could clarify the boundaries of B.C. lawyers’ responsibilities to the public and likely will influence the Finance Department’s efforts to bring lawyers into the suspicious transaction reporting system.

Another anti-money-laundering expert, former RCMP unit leader Kim Marsh, said he believes many B.C. lawyers are “wilfully blind” to the origins of offshore cash flooding through legal trusts and into real estate.

“I think a lot of trust accounts in B.C. are used as flow-through accounts,” Marsh said.

Marsh said offshore investors use flow-through accounts as “a conduit to move the money into another location or investment; and what better conduit than a lawyer’s trust account? It’s a big red flag in offshore banking when money just goes in and out of an account.”


Details alleged in court filings for another case appear to highlight some of the issues that the Financial Action Task Force, a Paris-based intergovernmental group, asked Canada to address in a 2016 report. Its report pointed to concerns with offshore investment in real estate and the services provided by Canadian lawyers, such as placing wire transfers in trusts and creating investment vehicles that can shield true ownership of property.

The case, proceeding through separate but related B.C. Supreme Court civil actions, involves prominent Richmond real estate and immigration lawyer Hong Guo.

Documents filed in B.C. Supreme Court allege that about four years ago, Guo’s Chinese investor clients used her legal trust to wire tens of millions from offshore into Guo’s accounts. Next, various B.C. shell companies either incorporated or owned by Guo were used to invest the funds in various land and resource deals, according to legal filings.

In the largest deal, Chinese investors bought three properties on Richmond’s Minoru Boulevard in 2013 for a condo development. According to allegations in legal filings, the condo development stalled for financial reasons. The investors had difficulty getting enough money into B.C., legal filings say, and they struggled to find lenders in B.C. because “the whole transaction looked suspicious.” In connection to the financing difficulties, Hong Guo “admitted to sending false disclosure information to the prospective lenders in the Minoru Deal,” legal filings allege.

When the development failed to proceed, some investors wanted to sell the Richmond properties quickly and get their money back, legal filings say, but others wanted to hold the land. These investors are now fighting each other in B.C. courts to prove who invested funds for the deal.

Guo and her business associate Allen Sun are also locked in several court battles over these deals.

In one court action, Allen Sun questioned who really owns the $20 million wired into Guo’s legal trust to invest in the deal. One of Guo’s Chinese clients, a man named Zhongping Xu, claims that the $20 million belongs to him. But records filed in court by other investors say most of the $20 million came not from Zhongping Xu, but from a Chinese man named Li Zhen, and two Hong Kong registered companies known as Sparkle Long and Double Wealth International.

Allen Sun’s lawyer questioned Zhongping Xu in court about the source of funds.

“It says all of these balances were received from Li Zhen … who is Li Zhen?” Sun’s lawyer asked Xu, according to examination transcripts, while showing him Guo’s trust account records.

“My friend,” Xu answered. “And what was his involvement in … any of these companies? Was that your money that was being funnelled through Li Zhen?”

“I don’t want to answer because I don’t want to talk about my money,” Xu responded. “It doesn’t matter where it is from. The source is from Hong Kong, that’s my business.”

“Was it transferred to Ms. Guo’s account from China?” Sun’s lawyer pressed, according to transcripts. “How did you get the $20 million you say that you have invested in this deal, from China to Vancouver?”

“I will not provide you with the documents in China,” Xu answered.

Legal filings from Allen Sun assert that “the money coming in for these deals was from a completely unknown source offshore,” and “there are hundreds of thousands of dollars which flowed into and out of Ms. Guo’s trust account to unidentified parties including $350,000 to Mr. Xu personally.”

In March 2016, in a B.C. Supreme Court order granting Allen Sun’s lawyer an opportunity to re-examine Zhongping Xu, Master Douglas Baker stated that: “It is my observation that when matters got close to the bone, so to speak, when significant issues (were asked) like ‘where did you get the $20 million, how did you get it to Canada,’ he does become, I think, the nice word would be ‘circumlocutory.'”

Also in the Richmond land deal case, Guo’s client Qing Yan has sued Zhongping Xu and Hong Guo.

Affidavits filed by Yan in the case say that in January 2016, before Yan sued Xu, the two investors discussed meeting in Macau or Hong Kong to resolve their differences in the Richmond land deal, and that scrutiny of regulatory authorities was a consideration.

“Mr Yan … using a third party transferee (you don’t have to show your face) so that actual payment will be in cash … the signing can actually take place in Hong Kong,” Zhongping Xu texted to Qing Yan, affidavits filed in B.C. Supreme Court say. “It’s better our future discussions take place either face to face or via WeChat! … If someone out of unfriendly intention complains to the regulatory authority, then it will lead to intervention, delay or termination!”

There is no indication that the B.C. Law Society is investigating Guo’s involvement in the Richmond land deal case.

In interviews with Postmedia, Guo insisted strongly that she and her clients have done nothing wrong in the contested Richmond land deal.

“Who is Li Zhen? I don’t know, I really don’t know what you are asking,” Guo said. “I’m just in the middle to help the two parties. I’m not benefiting. I don’t have any benefit from this deal, even a penny.”



oh so that's how all this works

guys, self regulation works and we can't possibly impose additional burdens on our venerated friends in the legal profession because that would be onerous and impede the growth of the middle class and small businesses

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Snuffman
May 21, 2004


I can't tell, is that a converted garden shed or really oddly shaped tiny-house?

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