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Moridin920 posted:What resources are so scarce that we couldn't support a global population of say 11b for hundreds of years at least? Piss and vinegar, there's a huge draw on the the current supply, especially after Brexit and this election.
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Feb 27, 2017 22:00
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trump can have my piss out of my cold dead micropeen
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Feb 27, 2017 22:01
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He'll just sell it a yuge markup
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Feb 27, 2017 22:06
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nigga crab pollock posted:It's already replacing some jobs and doing the work of a few employees so you could say it's already replacing jobs but those things rely on actual people being there for the workflow to function I'm aware of this, but I still believe that the tech required to seriously disrupt the labor market is a few decades away still. Point of Sale automation isn't even that strong currently and I won't be surprised if Wendy's kiosk experiment is a dud, much like the automats that popped up in the valley a few years ago and were mostly an annoying gimmick. I say this to reinforce my point that we've got some time on our hands to anticipate the labor struggles on the horizon and not simply wring our hands as if a robot already took our job and husband.
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Feb 27, 2017 22:17
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Go into a Panera and they have self-order kiosks and no one uses them, even when the line is like 5 deep. Self-checkouts are prone to theft and also requires people to stand there helping anyway, it reduces labor somewhat but not absolutely
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Feb 27, 2017 22:20
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I mean look at how much carwashes have impacted the spit and newspaper hobo cleaning services and sorority/fireman donation washes.
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Feb 27, 2017 22:23
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Spunky Psycho Ho posted:Go into a Panera and they have self-order kiosks and no one uses them, even when the line is like 5 deep. Self-checkouts are prone to theft and also requires people to stand there helping anyway, it reduces labor somewhat but not absolutely Tbf a lot of that is just people not being used to the new systems. The same thing happens around here in grocery stores and whatever; long rear end line of middle aged people for the cashier, basically no one at the self checkout except for younger dudes like me. Also the tech for the self-checkout theft is pretty drat slick nowadays, fwiw. You can still defeat it obv but you can also just shoplift before you get to the register. Example of some stuff they are using aside from just the schlub there monitoring all the self-checkouts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS3UNCLQlTg Toadvine posted:I'm aware of this, but I still believe that the tech required to seriously disrupt the labor market is a few decades away still. That said I still agree with this. e: apparently YouTube won't let that video play embedded but in case you just want a summary: it's software working with a camera to spot people doing most of the standard self checkout tricks and it can detect theft without someone actually sitting there watching the camera feed. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Feb 27, 2017 |
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Feb 27, 2017 22:25
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Dude if you wanna defeat the robots at the beginning you should be doing stuff like that, it's stage 1 in the battle
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Feb 27, 2017 22:27
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Personal anecdote: my dad got his vocational training in robotics maintenance and tech which was a very smart move for a man with limited options and lacking a college education. he observed the growing reliance on automated labor and thought it better to become a component rather than a competitor. At the end of the day though he's still labor and GM thought it best to move all their robots to Mexico and hire cheaper maintenance technicians down there 
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Feb 27, 2017 22:27
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my end goal is to be a robot
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Feb 27, 2017 22:28
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Toadvine posted:Personal anecdote: my dad got his vocational training in robotics maintenance and tech which was a very smart move for a man with limited options and lacking a college education. he observed the growing reliance on automated labor and thought it better to become a component rather than a competitor. Your dad is a racist that deserves to lose his job because robots anyway - posters here in the thread
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Feb 27, 2017 22:30
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PathAsc posted:So it's which one is delusion and which is pessimism? Looking at the rate of births worldwide, even just maintaining 1:1 births to deaths leaves us overpopulated enough to shorten our species time here due to resources (I don't mean oil) and less time for advancement. Assuming we can't reach a technological level to do things within possible relativistic and physical laws as we know them now is pretty pessimistic I'd say. But I wouldn't deny that possibility either. Why wouldn't we want to extend our total time to extinction, unless we really want to go against the nature of organisms to thrive and continue? It's hard to get people started learning how far the usual assumptions are off from reality. You like most people probably unconsciously assume humans basically breed at the same rate.  ...just try and not see some overall trends in there. This trend remains true inside countries, so imagine a fractal where upper-class America is in the deep red and immigrant-heavy zones are bright green. Essentially the more modern and likely to recycle a family is, the less babies they have. So the audience that you're trying to speak to and change, middle-class white-ish people, have been a dying species for decades. Worrying about the American Middle-Class Worker(tm) is looking for what we'll do after we're all already well and truly hosed. Even if you could solve the problems of the middle-class worker, which you can't, because you're not yet even in the ballpark of talking about the real problems at play. Spunky Psycho Ho posted:Go into a Panera and they have self-order kiosks and no one uses them, even when the line is like 5 deep. Self-checkouts are prone to theft and also requires people to stand there helping anyway, it reduces labor somewhat but not absolutely Yet like 2-3 workers at the counter and a few people in back will serve hundreds of people a fantastic variety of foods thanks to all the other automation you're ignoring. Moridin920 posted:my end goal is to be a robot I'd rather be a matrix, this is true. ...except on Free Martian Soil. Because down with the tyranny of EarthDome.
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Feb 27, 2017 22:33
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ME
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Spunky Psycho Ho posted:Go into a Panera and they have self-order kiosks and no one uses them, even when the line is like 5 deep. Self-checkouts are prone to theft and also requires people to stand there helping anyway, it reduces labor somewhat but not absolutely
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Feb 27, 2017 22:33
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Besides, again it doesn't really matter if automation fully replaces labor or not. You only need like ~20%+ unemployment for poo poo to start getting really bad in the broader economy whether you and yours have jobs or not.
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Feb 27, 2017 22:37
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lol just get into moving money around/owning stuff and you're set come robots or whatever
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Feb 27, 2017 22:38
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In these trying times we must look to that storied tome The Animatrix for guidance. The one about robots and how they stole the planet out from underneath us
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Feb 27, 2017 22:46
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Toadvine posted:In these trying times we must look to that storied tome The Animatrix for guidance. The one about robots and how they stole the planet out from underneath us poo poo let some bitch rear end robot come at me, I got a bag full of strong magnets to throw at him. loving weak rear end robots can even overcome magnetism without scrambling their dumb electric brains. Alternatively hole up in a room with a powered up MRI machine. Checkmate, automatons lol 
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Feb 27, 2017 22:52
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Cake Smashing Boob posted:lol just get into moving money around/owning stuff and you're set come robots or whatever Some of that capital has to be yours to begin with because tbh the robots are way better at this than humans ever could be and if you're just managing someone else's capital you'll get nixed. Sooner rather than later, in finance.
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Feb 27, 2017 22:53
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Perhaps the robots will form some sort of human charity where they give the excess earnings of their labor to humans out of the goodness of their robo-hearts
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Feb 27, 2017 23:21
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Polio Vax Scene posted:Perhaps the robots will form some sort of human charity where they give the excess earnings of their labor to humans out of the goodness of their robo-hearts I'm tellin' you, nationalize the robots and and supply them to companies in exchange for a fair labor value which then goes into a pool and is redistributed to the people as a guaranteed income. Every single person is in the 'worker's union' by virtue of the fact that they all own a stake in the labor and when the 'fair labor value' of the robot's work goes up they also get more money.
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Feb 27, 2017 23:26
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SpaceGoatFarts posted:sorry there's no future for you grandpa. The world belongs to nerds now In fifty years we're all gonna be considered old bigoted assholes because we want to deprive robots of the right to work our service jobs and pleasure our family members.
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Feb 27, 2017 23:31
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It's going to be a couple of capitalist dynasties and their political cronies set up as living gods, while the rest of us are stuck fighting each other for scraps/being stomped into the mud by hyper efficient robotic killing machines/killed for sport
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Feb 27, 2017 23:35
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Cake Smashing Boob posted:It's going to be a couple of capitalist dynasties and their political cronies set up as living gods while the rest of us are stuck fighting each other for the scraps/being stomped into the mud by hyper efficient robotic killing machines/killed for sport So like Elysium. Could be! Musk is already doing space poo poo... quote:In the year 2154, two classes of people exist: the very wealthy, who live on a pristine man-made space station called Elysium, and the rest, who live on an overpopulated, ruined Earth. Secretary Delacourt, a government official, will stop at nothing to enforce anti-immigration laws and preserve the luxurious lifestyle of the citizens of Elysium. fuckin' secretary baron trump the way this is going
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Feb 27, 2017 23:36
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revdrkevind posted:It's hard to get people started learning how far the usual assumptions are off from reality. You like most people probably unconsciously assume humans basically breed at the same rate. Actually, I look at the trends for this, and also data from later than 2007. It's not to be an rear end, but study up on this a bit more, even developed countries are seeing an upswing in birthrate again. It should even out and even dip into a loss per, but the problem again is we're already overpopulated and need to cut down sooner rather than later. That's not to say it won't happen, but why shouldn't we start an active role in adjusting like we've tried to do with climate change? Consumption is rising worldwide of resources, and a lot isn't getting recycled. Not exactly a good way to extend our time. E: forgot the goddamn link https://www.cia.gov/library/Publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html PathAsc fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 27, 2017 23:42
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PathAsc posted:That's not to say it won't happen, but why shouldn't we start an active role in adjusting like we've tried to do with climate change? Consumption is rising worldwide of resources, and a lot isn't getting recycled. Not exactly a good way to extend our time. I'm not certain which way I fall on that so let's just say for the sake of argument that you're right; what does "adjusting" look like exactly though? A lot of the proposed fixes for population don't really work. The devil is in the details. e: I will say that for a start we could stop teaching abstinence only and being such loving weirdos about giving people condoms, at least here in the USA. I doubt that would really have that much of an impact (if any) in global population numbers though. ee: please don't say bio-engineered retrovirus, that's my comedy option! Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Feb 27, 2017 |
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Feb 27, 2017 23:44
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I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the future tbh but that's probably because I plan on drinking myself to death in the next 5 years or so.
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Feb 27, 2017 23:46
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Also we should start eating people asap.
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Feb 27, 2017 23:47
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Moridin920 posted:So like Elysium. Yeah except directed by Verhoeven, and set to the tune of some fat sack of poo poo radio host KM Scorchio posted:Also we should start eating people asap. I can already see it in my minds eye. "Serve a greater purpose, feed the hungry, apply now at Future-Trump Human Resources Incorporated!" Cake Smashing Boob fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 27, 2017 23:49
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Cake Smashing Boob posted:It's going to be a couple of capitalist dynasties and their political cronies set up as living gods, while the rest of us are stuck fighting each other for scraps/being stomped into the mud by hyper efficient robotic killing machines/killed for sport the economy is literally rigged as a zero sum game by the rich and powerful to make this happen says complete idiot
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Feb 28, 2017 00:11
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PathAsc posted:Actually, I look at the trends for this, and also data from later than 2007. It's not to be an rear end, but study up on this a bit more, even developed countries are seeing an upswing in birthrate again. It should even out and even dip into a loss per, but the problem again is we're already overpopulated and need to cut down sooner rather than later. That's not to say it won't happen, but why shouldn't we start an active role in adjusting like we've tried to do with climate change? Consumption is rising worldwide of resources, and a lot isn't getting recycled. Not exactly a good way to extend our time. Garrett Hardin in The Tragedy of the Commons posted:Perhaps the simplest summary of this analysis of man's population problems is this: the commons, if justifiable at all, is justifiable only under conditions of low-population density. As the human population has increased, the commons has had to be abandoned in one aspect after another. This, in 1968. Probably talked about way before then, too. Unfortunately I think we're selecting for consciousness right now, judging by population growth stats but that might be culturally insensitive to say.
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Feb 28, 2017 00:12
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i might be wrong on the timetable but truck drivers will be one of the first big non min wage things automated out of existence i think. it will probably start with human operators assisting the driving of many driverless trucks simultaneously from some remote location then eventually be fully automated end to end.
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Feb 28, 2017 00:16
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That's a whole big rear end crock of some capitalist ideology for you btw.quote:Perhaps the simplest summary of this analysis of man's population problems is this: the commons, if justifiable at all, is justifiable only under conditions of low-population density. As the human population has increased, the commons has had to be abandoned in one aspect after another. lol quote:Individuals locked into the logic of the commons are free only to bring on universal ruin once they see the necessity of mutual coercion, they become free to pursue other goals. double lol cooperation is the ruin of Earth folks. Privatize everything! The solution to the tragedy of the commons is not to have a central regulator but instead to eliminate the commons! Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 28, 2017 00:21
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To the people arguing that the planet is already overpopulated, could you provide some links to nerds who have done the order-of-magnitude calculations? I've always figured that 7 billion was probably pushing it in the long-run; landfills and water resources have been stretched thin in a number of areas in developed nations. Running under the 10.5 bln assumption, this means that the remaining ~7bln or whatever industrialize and become consumers akin to us. That's probably going to result in a massive increase in resource consumption (if it does happen). I'm going to go do some research later, its been a looooong time since I crunched such numbers, but I gotta crush some nerds in collectible trading card game Magic: The Gathering first.
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Feb 28, 2017 00:25
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Moridin920 posted:I'm not certain which way I fall on that so let's just say for the sake of argument that you're right; what does "adjusting" look like exactly though? A lot of the proposed fixes for population don't really work. The devil is in the details. More research into contraceptives, a more direct and appropriate mandatory education on the result of copulation other than STD/STI, screening and licensing for child bearing. Cull the horrendously and irreversibly damaged fetus/newborn upon medical examination. Is it going to happen and work 100%? gently caress no, the retarded masses will scream about their rights and that Jesus says they have to have lots of little shits to preach the good word. Or that their precious ball of fuckflesh will totally bounce back with prayers. E: linking again because I forgot to up there https://www.cia.gov/library/Publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html PathAsc fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 28, 2017 00:25
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GREAT SATAN posted:This, in 1968. Probably talked about way before then, too. Unfortunately I think we're selecting for consciousness right now, judging by population growth stats but that might be culturally insensitive to say. I forgot this in that post, added it though. https://www.cia.gov/library/Publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html
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Feb 28, 2017 00:28
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Moridin920 posted:That's a whole big rear end crock of some capitalist ideology for you btw. it's super stupid yeah lol
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Feb 28, 2017 00:28
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PathAsc posted:More research into contraceptives, a more direct and appropriate mandatory education on the result of copulation other than STD/STI, screening and licensing for child bearing. Cull the horrendously and irreversibly damaged fetus/newborn upon medical examination. man say what you want about how retarded modern politics are at least they don't let specials like yourself anywhere near them
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Feb 28, 2017 00:31
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Moridin920 posted:What resources are so scarce that we couldn't support a global population of say 11b for hundreds of years at least? its not a matter of scarcity its how we extract, produce, distribute, etc. which is very difficult and complicated to do in a way that is sustainable for billions of people. Wow lately I keep remembering there are 7 billion people and it freaks me out. And like... it has doubled in the past 50 years. We better slow down soon.
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Feb 28, 2017 00:33
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My off the cuff idea is to give a gov't tax break or grant or stipend of some kind the older you get with no kids. Maybe a sliding scale based on amount of kids. That way there is economic incentive not to have kids which probably would work way better given human nature. You could argue that fucks poor people disproportionately ofc but to that I say a) we should alleviate poverty in the first place and b) this gives poor people a way to get more money. That would also require really good sex ed stuff and more funding for women's health stuff, because you can have all the economic incentive you want but if you can't put a condom on right and/or get family planning services then you'll probably have a kid. SHISHKABOB posted:its not a matter of scarcity its how we extract, produce, distribute, etc. which is very difficult and complicated to do in a way that is sustainable for billions of people. Wow lately I keep remembering there are 7 billion people and it freaks me out. And like... it has doubled in the past 50 years. We better slow down soon. I don't disagree with that, but that's a point against global capitalism more than a point against the size of our population. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 28, 2017 00:35
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Bulgogi Hoagie posted:the economy is literally rigged as a zero sum game by the rich and powerful to make this happen says complete idiot my 100% accurate vision of the future in no way relies on the economy being a zero sum game tho 
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Feb 28, 2017 00:37
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