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There were plenty of leftists who would prefer the south to be part of a unified Korea under the North's rule in the old days, particularly during the various southern dictatorships. That started to ebb away when democracy finally set in and general South Korean living standards really improved while the North started to crater, but there's still going to be some of the same old guard around now who want a dear leader.
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Feb 28, 2017 03:37
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Ragingsheep posted:Does the US even need to get involved in the defence of SK anymore? Not with ground forces except maybe as a tripwire. They only have 28k troops there anyway which in practical terms isn't going to do much.
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Feb 28, 2017 03:49
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fishmech posted:There were plenty of leftists who would prefer the south to be part of a unified Korea under the North's rule in the old days, particularly during the various southern dictatorships. That started to ebb away when democracy finally set in and general South Korean living standards really improved while the North started to crater, but there's still going to be some of the same old guard around now who want a dear leader. Wasn't a leftist congressman arrested and convicted for plotting with the north a couple of years ago.
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Feb 28, 2017 05:07
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Less plotting with and more taking huge bribes from (Cash rather than ideology) but yeah, some government guy in S.K got done two years back for espionage or having a shrine or something.Phlegmish posted:Haha, yeah. That's exactly the kind of thing they say. I've been here too long, I can't tell if that's sarcasm.
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Feb 28, 2017 06:42
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The US needs to be a stakeholder in so far as it wants to mediate some type of process of reunification. That would only be possible imo by a catastrophic inability by DPRK to manage its poo poo or some type of coup d'etat with the later probably being the better option. Otherwise China will take care of it at an oportune time, but tbh they are probably even more sympahetic to the South Koreans than to the North.
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Feb 28, 2017 06:58
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/836476454405820416 Dead dude is definitely and absolutely just a normal and regular NK citizen, honest
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Feb 28, 2017 09:08
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Unification is not good for China as the end game. See Vietnam unified by the communist government and immediately befriended with Soviet Russia and have geopolitical ambition. Of course China would never say it.
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Feb 28, 2017 10:59
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There was also the wikileak about how China could stomach a consensus where South overtakes the North when everything goes to poo poo, provided that the South would honor the trade agreements between North and China, plus that the american forces would remain outside of the northern parts of the unified Korea.
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Feb 28, 2017 17:15
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fishmech posted:There were plenty of leftists who would prefer the south to be part of a unified Korea under the North's rule in the old days, particularly during the various southern dictatorships. That started to ebb away when democracy finally set in and general South Korean living standards really improved while the North started to crater, but there's still going to be some of the same old guard around now who want a dear leader.
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Feb 28, 2017 19:34
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TenementFunster posted:what's the hangul for "tankie?" Not sure if it will display properly (and just my guess at a phonetic translation) 탄키 e: 더러운 외국인 입니다 karlor fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 28, 2017 22:27
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Auritech posted:Looks like there's a possibility one of the assassins may have been affected by the VX after all. On the plus side VX is reversible if you have an antidote on hand before it starts seriously wrecking you. On the minus side she may not have been picked up within the first few hours, and they flubbed saving Jong-nam, sooooo
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Feb 28, 2017 22:40
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Good news everyone! North Korea launches another missile, perhaps one that can reach U.S.
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Mar 6, 2017 03:18
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Which'll lead to greater anti-missile defense coverage, which China's just going to love.
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Mar 6, 2017 07:23
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WarpedNaba posted:Which'll lead to greater anti-missile defense coverage, which China's just going to love.
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Mar 6, 2017 07:52
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Der Kyhe posted:There was also the wikileak about how China could stomach a consensus where South overtakes the North when everything goes to poo poo, provided that the South would honor the trade agreements between North and China, plus that the american forces would remain outside of the northern parts of the unified Korea. Or the American forces could just leave the peninsula entirely?
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Mar 6, 2017 08:21
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Only way to test it that I can think off, by which time I don't think we'll like the answer either way.
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Mar 6, 2017 08:23
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KaptainKrunk posted:Or the American forces could just leave the peninsula entirely? Won't happen. US forces are in South Korea permanently as a way to check Chinese power in the region.
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Mar 6, 2017 09:02
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Of course it won't happen. That doesn't mean it shouldn't.
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Mar 6, 2017 09:07
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KaptainKrunk posted:Or the American forces could just leave the peninsula entirely?
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Mar 6, 2017 09:31
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If US has a real president, they probably can secure sanction from Beijing for a tactical operation to destroy NK's ballastic capacity only. But US has an imbicile running part time in White House. BTW where is that loving secretary of Exxon when the world needs him to haggle out a deal in korea peninsula? China is busy closing down Lotte group supermarket right now so Beijing is not going to do anything to either Korea. LOL nothing matters.
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Mar 6, 2017 11:21
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TenementFunster posted:aside from China getting so owned so easily with the VX thing being hilarious, does THAAD even loving work? It works, at least in that it can actually shoot down missiles of the types North Korea has. However, it could only intercept a ballistic missile coming down in its general area, doesn't have the range to hit anything flying in the closest Chinese airspace, and the RADAR is nothing special compared to the various similarly advanced long range RADAR systems already in use by South Korean and US Naval vessels and surveillance aircraft. It was probably selected over the more capable systems like the SM-3 (whixh is notably already in service by both the US and Japanese navies) for these reasons - it has zero impact on China unless China wants to drop ballistic missiles on South Korea. Not that this prevents China from complaining for political points or useful idiots from repeating it. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 13:53 on Mar 6, 2017 |
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Mar 6, 2017 13:49
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Warbadger posted:It works, at least in that it can actually shoot down missiles of the types North Korea has.
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Mar 6, 2017 14:15
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TenementFunster posted:aside from China getting so owned so easily with the VX thing being hilarious, does THAAD even loving work? It "Works" but its not a 100% guarentee, no Anti-Missile system is to be fair. South Korea and Japan were also considering the Aegis Ashore system with the SM-3 CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Mar 6, 2017 |
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Mar 6, 2017 14:15
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whatever7 posted:If US has a real president, they probably can secure sanction from Beijing for a tactical operation to destroy NK's ballastic capacity only. But US has an imbicile running part time in White House. I highly doubt China would agree to letting US forces carry out a "tactical" incursion or strike against North Korea.
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Mar 6, 2017 15:09
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Main Paineframe posted:I highly doubt China would agree to letting US forces carry out a "tactical" incursion or strike against North Korea. China will do it for significant concession in Taiwan (plus 100 millions investment in Trump Chinese real estate venture.)
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Mar 6, 2017 15:15
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Has Moon Jae-in publicly signaled his position on THAAD and relations with the DPRK as a whole?
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Mar 6, 2017 16:14
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whatever7 posted:If US has a real president, they probably can secure sanction from Beijing for a tactical operation to destroy NK's ballastic capacity only. But US has an imbicile running part time in White House. I do not believe that any military operation can be executed against North Korea that doesn't essentially cause the regime there to collapse. And when that happens, there will be almost certain occupation by South Korea and US forces to try to head off the sort of civil war that might happen. So, China would never back an operation to "just" hit some missile bases. They would know that it guarantees South Korean long term operations going on within North Korea. And if they're willing to have that, they'd probably prefer that the South Korean invasion would be the plan from the start. So they can arrange things like "Only South Korean troops within X kilometers of Chinese border" or protocols for how the Chinese will temporarily occupy the border region with North Korea to try to stem a tide of refugees.
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Mar 6, 2017 16:30
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fishmech posted:I do not believe that any military operation can be executed against North Korea that doesn't essentially cause the regime there to collapse. And when that happens, there will be almost certain occupation by South Korea and US forces to try to head off the sort of civil war that might happen. If any action were to occur, I guarentee China would be the first ones into North Korea to try to prevent US/South Korean occupation.
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Mar 6, 2017 16:32
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CommieGIR posted:If any action were to occur, I guarentee China would be the first ones into North Korea to try to prevent US/South Korean occupation. What do you base this claim on? Both the states and China seem extremely reluctant to even discuss how they would manage post-collapse NK.
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Mar 6, 2017 17:20
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Tias posted:What do you base this claim on? If China see's that North Korea is on the verge of a shooting war that the US/SK might be in, they'll gut North Korea and install a puppet before they let us touch North Korean soil.
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Mar 6, 2017 17:24
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I can't say with any certainty what China would do, but I think their most urgent priority would be to secure their border against a flood of refugees.
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Mar 6, 2017 17:44
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fishmech posted:I do not believe that any military operation can be executed against North Korea that doesn't essentially cause the regime there to collapse. And when that happens, there will be almost certain occupation by South Korea and US forces to try to head off the sort of civil war that might happen. You can't force a reign collapse with just surgical strike. Just look at Sadden. quote:So, China would never back an operation to "just" hit some missile bases. They would know that it guarantees South Korean long term operations going on within North Korea. And if they're willing to have that, they'd probably prefer that the South Korean invasion would be the plan from the start. So they can arrange things like "Only South Korean troops within X kilometers of Chinese border" or protocols for how the Chinese will temporarily occupy the border region with North Korea to try to stem a tide of refugees. Well I agree China is not going to back any actual invasion until they get Taiwan in exchange. But I think China can sanction a surgical strike for lower price. See in the event of an actual invasion China is not going to ask for SK guarantee. Chinese troop will actually go in to build up an "refugee safety" buffer zone 100-200 miles from the Chinese border. That's the only ways to guarantee defense in depth. When will the Chinese "peacekeepers" leave Korea will depend on when will the US troop leave Korea.
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Mar 6, 2017 17:51
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I can't imagine China approving of US aircraft bombing North Korean soil, no matter how "surgical" we claim the strikes are. Once the planes are in the air, they don't get any say in what we do or don't bomb, and there's no way such strikes would cause North Korea to be more stable, compliant, predictable, or friendly toward any of its neighbors. It's simply not worth the risks.
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Mar 6, 2017 20:45
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Main Paineframe posted:I can't imagine China approving of US aircraft bombing North Korean soil, no matter how "surgical" we claim the strikes are. Once the planes are in the air, they don't get any say in what we do or don't bomb, and there's no way such strikes would cause North Korea to be more stable, compliant, predictable, or friendly toward any of its neighbors. It's simply not worth the risks. So what's the alternative?
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Mar 6, 2017 21:17
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Nobody does anything and watches North Korea drunkenly stumble around. The status quo.
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Mar 6, 2017 21:22
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whatever7 posted:So what's the alternative? And that's exactly why the North has been free to develop it's nuclear program and missle program without harassment unlike Syria or Iran.
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Mar 6, 2017 21:22
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whatever7 posted:So what's the alternative? Either everyone does nothing, or China/South Korea/US finally forge a decision to depose the regime in the North and have South Korea take over with some level of temporary Chinese occupation in the border regions. Any sort of bombing campaign into North Korea results in a weird middle ground that will inevitably lead to the full invasion at some near point anyway.
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Mar 6, 2017 21:25
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North Korea demonstrates nuclear capability that can reach the US, gets more aggressive towards SK, shooting starts, US defends ally, LA gets nuked, NK gets nuked, China moves in... I'm probably wrong about that but when all the options are bad, that means the worst-case scenario is more likely to occur because none of the bad options are chosen.
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Mar 6, 2017 21:26
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Uncle Jam posted:And that's exactly why the North has been free to develop it's nuclear program and missle program without harassment unlike Syria or Iran. No, it has stayed the way it is because US policy makers are not willing to put enough chips on the table to deal. China is not going to be the one pick up the phone and raise the price becuase NK ICBM is not going to shoot China first.
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Mar 6, 2017 21:55
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whatever7 posted:So what's the alternative? The status quo, naturally. North Korea will continue to carry out their nuclear weapons program, and the US and China will continue to whine uncomfortably about it while doing nothing meaningful.
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Mar 6, 2017 22:03
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