Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce

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Which Thread Title shall we name this new thread? This poll is closed.
Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce	44	21.36%
ScotPol - Unclustering this gently caress	19	9.22%
Trainspotting 2: Independence is my heroin	9	4.37%
Indyref II: Boris hosed a Dead Country	14	6.80%
ScotPol: Wings over Bullshit	8	3.88%
Independence 2: Cameron Lied, UK Died	24	11.65%
Scotpol IV: I Vow To Flee My Country	14	6.80%
ScotPol - A twice in a generation thread	17	8.25%
ScotPol - Where Everything's hosed Up and the Referendums Don't Matter	15	7.28%
ScotPol Thread: Dependence Referendum Incoming	2	0.97%
Indyref II: The Scottish Insturgeoncy	10	4.85%
ScotPol Thread: Act of European Union	5	2.43%
ScotPol - Like Game of Thrones only we wish we would all die	25	12.14%
Total:	206 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Coohoolin posted:

What's so insane about letting EU citizens resident in Scotland vote?

Case in point.

# ? Feb 25, 2017 16:27

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# ? May 19, 2024 09:42

Coohoolin: Aug 5, 2012; Oor Coohoolie.

Jedit posted:

Case in point.

Again. I'm not an EU citizen.

# ? Feb 25, 2017 16:31

dadrips: Jan 8, 2010; everything you do is a balloon; College Slice

Extreme0 posted:

In all seriousness I wouldn't mind because it would be amusing karma for the Tories not giving EU nationals the vote because they knew they would likely stop Brexit. Otherwise I would be against having it solely Scots only. Fair's fair right?

The Tories being xenophobic populist arseholes is no excuse for the SNP or the wider pro-independence movement to embrace ethnic nationalism. The moment that Scottish independence becomes rooted in ethnicity and not self-government, it deserves to be smashed into a thousand pieces. It's already a shame that there's a small minority of folk who genuinely hold anti-English beliefs, which is both a) monumentally stupid and b) damaging to the argument that an independent Scotland would be inclusive.

# ? Feb 25, 2017 16:58

Coohoolin: Aug 5, 2012; Oor Coohoolie.

Hahaha obsessed.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 13:05

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

Better he attacks me than another young black woman.

Nice to get such publicity though. Hopefully he'll do one on Hillsborough.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 13:09

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Jesus that's tragic.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 13:41

Gonzo McFee: Jun 19, 2010

Seek help, flaps

# ? Mar 1, 2017 13:57

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

I did - the doctor told me that it was a good point and a few tweets over a couple of years isn't something to worry about.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 14:08

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

I thought about giving coohoolin a hard time for posting stuff from wings, since he swore he'd give it up after learning about Stuart Campbell's Hillsborough stupidity. But honestly I'm glad you did!

You need to stop reading wings through, because even ignoring that stuart campbell is an obnoxious idiot, it's loving awful

# ? Mar 1, 2017 16:29

cargohills: Apr 18, 2014

There was a Wings post about the Scottish Young Labour committee speaking out against Kezia Dugdale and the comments there were some of the best I've ever seen so I like Wings now.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 16:52

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Niric posted:

I thought about giving coohoolin a hard time for posting stuff from wings, since he swore he'd give it up after learning about Stuart Campbell's Hillsborough stupidity. But honestly I'm glad you did!

You need to stop reading wings through, because even ignoring that stuart campbell is an obnoxious idiot, it's loving awful

Yeah. It's reassuring Pissflaps is just as creepy & dull on Twitter but Wings is pish and Campbell is a twat.

Anyway, in more important news

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/836946407202385920

# ? Mar 1, 2017 17:17

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

forkboy84 posted:

Yeah. It's reassuring Pissflaps is just as creepy & dull on Twitter but Wings is pish and Campbell is a twat.

Ironic considering the sheer quantity of posts you make about me.

forkboy84 posted:

Anyway, in more important news

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/836946407202385920

It's an amusing coincidence.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 17:22

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Pissflaps posted:

Ironic considering the sheer quantity of posts you make about me.

It's an amusing coincidence.

14A: 12 introduces the beginning of the end, heralded by that wings man, spin and leaving us for another xenophobe.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 18:12

Cerv: Sep 14, 2004; This is a silly post with little news value.

forkboy84 posted:

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/836946407202385920

lol

in more serious news, the economic state for independence continues to be a worry
https://www.ft.com/content/9ca2e846-fe82-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

quote:

Ahead of the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, Paul Marsh and Scott Evans of London Business School compiled a Scotsie 100 index of quoted companies domiciled north of the border, and backdated it to 1955. They found that Scottish stocks performed broadly in line with UK stocks until late 2007. Thereafter, they�diverged sharply, thanks mainly to the near collapse of RBS. With RBS (and HBOS, before its merger with Lloyds) stripped out, Scotland outperformed the rest of the UK from 1955 to 2014. Scots shares returned 12.9 per cent a year against 12.6 per cent for �rUK� (rest of the UK) stocks.

Prof Marsh and Mr Evans have updated the index. The headlines are the same: Scottish shares have underperformed rUK ones by a large margin. RBS is still a big factor. But look at what happens when RBS is removed. Since September 2014, returns on Scottish shares have lagged behind the rest of the UK � even with the deadweight of the bank cut loose. This is partly down to share price falls at asset managers�such as Aberdeen and Standard Life.

The performance would have been worse still without investment trusts. These closed-ended funds were pioneered in Scotland and they now account for about a quarter of the market value of the 20 biggest Scottish companies (against a fifth in 2014). They have also beaten non-Scottish trusts by about 6 percentage points since 2014.

Even this apparent triumph is not all it seems. Lift the lid on�Scottish Mortgage, a top-performing trust that is set to enter the FTSE 100 index at the next review: seven out of its top 10 holdings are US-listed technology stocks. The sterling value of these holdings has risen sharply as the dollar has strengthened. The moral of the story seems to be that investing in Scottish companies need not be a disaster � but it is what they do outside Scotland that counts.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 23:43

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

I feel a bit bad for David Mundell, at least for a Tory. Dude was looking forward to hanging around on some back benches and not making much noise about anything of import and then as luck and FPTP and a (couple of) referendum(s) would have it he now has to look remotely charismatic in front of a camera on behalf of an entire party. Poor chap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLhZiEaefmw

# ? Mar 4, 2017 00:35

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Sturgeon: Autumn 2018 'common sense' for indyref2 :siren:

I'm honestly surprised by this. Even with the caveats and the fact that the SNP wanting another referendum is self evident, I didn't expect sturgeon to take a position about timing, even a tentative one, until polls were much more obviously shifting. The timing seems strange, albeit it's hard to know when the interview was recorded or if the SNP knew when it was likely to air They presumably don't want it to get buried, but coming in the middle of the budget coverage seems likely to downplay it. It also seems like an attempt to continue the "we should stay in the EU" narrative, which I'm not convinced is a winning one by itself, so partially districting from a not exactly popular budget and the potential to hammer the tories both on lack of public spending AND on hitting "small businesses" seems a mistake.

quote:

Scotland's first minister has said autumn 2018 would be a "common sense" date for any second independence referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon continued to insist, however, that no final decision had yet been made on holding such a vote.

In a BBC interview, she said she would take things forward at "the pace that I think is right for the country".

Ms Sturgeon has previously said another referendum is "highly likely" following last year's Brexit vote.

Scotland voted by 62% to 38% to remain inside the EU, and the Scottish government argues that access to the single market after Brexit is vital to the country's interests.

Scottish ministers have put forward proposals they claim could achieve this, but have accused the UK government of "intransigence" on the issue.

SNP economic spokesman Stewart Hosie told BBC Breakfast: "The key thing is will the UK government really embark on this hard Tory, cliff-edge Brexit - and we fear they will.

"And secondly, will they actually accept, into the UK negotiated position, the very sensible suggestion put forward by Nicola Sturgeon... if they reject it out of hand then, as the First Minister has said previously, it does make a second independence referendum more likely."

He also agreed with Ms Sturgeon that autumn 2018 "might make sense".

In a recent speech in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said a second independence referendum may become a "necessary"way of protecting Scotland's interests.

Interviewed by BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg for a BBC documentary to be broadcast on Thursday, she gave her clearest indication yet about the possible timing of such a vote.

Asked if autumn 2018 was a likely date, she replied: "Within that window, of when the outline of a UK deal becomes clear and the UK exiting the EU, I think would be common sense time for Scotland to have that choice, if that is the road we choose to go down."

Asked if that meant she was not ruling out autumn 2018 as a possible date, she said: "I'm not ruling anything out, I'm going to continue to take things forward at the pace that I think is right for the country."

Analysis by BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg

At Westminster and Holyrood in recent months there's been a building sense that Nicola Sturgeon has made up her mind to call a vote.

If she is now willing to discuss the timing of a second vote in public, consideration of another independence referendum is far beyond the hypothetical.

The crucial facet of that calculation is that the SNP believes its best chance of winning is before the EU negotiations are complete.

But also, it's up to the Westminster government to permit another referendum. There are huge risks for them in denying it, but ministers in London certainly would not grant a vote at the time of the SNP's choosing without a fight.

Scotland voted to stay part of the UK by 55% to 45% in the 2014 independence referendum.

Ms Sturgeon's predecessor as first minister, Alex Salmond, has already predicted that a second independence referendum would take place in autumn next year.

While the SNP does not hold an overall majority at Holyrood, it could count on the support of the Scottish Greens if the Scottish Parliament voted on holding a new referendum.

Permission to hold such a vote, however, would have to be granted by the UK government at Westminster.

Prime Minister Theresa May has so far declined to be drawn on whether her government would allow a second referendum.

'Deeply irresponsible'

In her speech to the Scottish Conservative Party conference earlier this month, Mrs May accused the SNP of being "obsessed with its own priority of independence" to the detriment of devolved public services like education and health.

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said: "Nicola Sturgeon has just admitted what everybody already knew - that the SNP is hell-bent on taking Scotland back to another divisive independence referendum and will use any excuse to do so.

"She knows that a referendum would inflict further damage on Scotland's economy. It is therefore deeply irresponsible for the first minister of Scotland to cast this cloud of uncertainty over our future.

"She needs to put the country first for once. People in Scotland don't want a second referendum, and the SNP doesn't have a mandate for one. Rather than cast our future under further doubt, Nicola Sturgeon needs to act like a first minister, provide some certainty for Scotland, and rule it out."

# ? Mar 9, 2017 09:25

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

A referendum too soon would most likely result in a defeat. I can only imagine this date has been floated to appease nationalists who demand that another referendum takes place at all, in the hope that events conspire to turn more people Yes/Leave.

What this would mean for Scotland's EU membership would be interesting as surely this would mean independence after the UK has left the EU.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 09:58

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Pissflaps posted:

A referendum too soon would most likely result in a defeat. I can only imagine this date has been floated to appease nationalists who demand that another referendum takes place at all, in the hope that events conspire to turn more people Yes/Leave.

What this would mean for Scotland's EU membership would be interesting as surely this would mean independence after the UK has left the EU.

When do you think would be best to run another independence referendum, from the perspective of Nats?

# ? Mar 9, 2017 10:48

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

forkboy84 posted:

When do you think would be best to run another independence referendum, from the perspective of Nats?

I think any shock to no voters from Brexit has already been absorbed, with people now preparing for the hardest of Brexits. I think the process of negotiation will harden attitudes on both sides rather than pushing a significant number of people from one side to the other.

I'd say the months immediately following the 2020 Tory election victory would be optimal.

Though of course anything can happen in 18 months - autumn 2018 may prove to be the perfect time. Or it might not. It's a gamble and this is the last throw of the nationalist dice.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 10:56

Leggsy: Apr 30, 2008; We'll take our chances...

STV poll: Half of Scots would vote for independence

quote:

Half of Scots would back independence if a fresh referendum was held tomorrow, a poll for STV News has found.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos MORI, has shown a rise in support for independence as the Prime Minister prepares to trigger Britain's exit from the European Union later this month.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said a fresh referendum, following the UK-wide decision to leave the EU last year, is "highly likely".

The SNP leader has also described a referendum held in autumn 2018 as being in a "common sense" time period during the negotiations between London and Brussels.

Among those polled who said they know how they would vote and are very likely or certain to vote in an immediate referendum, 50% said they would vote Yes to independence while the other 50% said they would reject independence.

Ipsos MORI last polled Scots on the subject six months ago, with support for independence rising by two percentage points during the period.

...

Ipsos MORI also asked Scots how they plan to vote in May's local government elections.

The SNP are set to pick up almost half of first preference votes (46%) giving the party a 27-percentage point lead over the second largest party, the Scottish Conservatives, on 19% Scottish Labour polled just 17% in third. At the last local government elections in 2012 the party finished second with 31% of the national vote.

The pro-independence Scottish Greens (85) also look seat leapfrog the Lib Dems (6%) into fourth place in terms of first preference votes. Scotland's only pro-Brexit party, UKIP, polled 3%.

Interesting stuff, although Ipsos have been more favourable to the SNP in polling as of late. I still stand by that if the SNP break 40% in first preferences on the actual day then that would be a truly jaw dropping result.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 11:03

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

I think that if there's another referendum the result will be closer than Brexit.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 11:23

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

I imagine UKIP might actually start getting the odd council seat or two at those numbers. Not enough to actually do anything but I'm sure they'll claim they're winning over the populace. Also glad to hear the Scottish Greens are apparently on 85 percent, all hail king patrick

# ? Mar 9, 2017 12:10

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Pissflaps posted:

I think any shock to no voters from Brexit has already been absorbed, with people now preparing for the hardest of Brexits. I think the process of negotiation will harden attitudes on both sides rather than pushing a significant number of people from one side to the other.

I'd say the months immediately following the 2020 Tory election victory would be optimal.

Though of course anything can happen in 18 months - autumn 2018 may prove to be the perfect time. Or it might not. It's a gamble and this is the last throw of the nationalist dice.

You're probably right. We're not getting automatically into the EU whatever happens, so rushing to hold the referendum before Brexit actually happens is pointless.

Also, the Greens beating the Liberals to become the 4th party in Scottish politics is absolutely a huge positive.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 12:43

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Leggsy posted:

STV poll: Half of Scots would vote for independence

Interesting stuff, although Ipsos have been more favourable to the SNP in polling as of late. I still stand by that if the SNP break 40% in first preferences on the actual day then that would be a truly jaw dropping result.

It wouldn't really be jawdropping, since it would be a near repeat of the 2016 Holyrood results, as mentioned before:

Niric posted:

While that's historically huge for the SNP in council elections (and utterly, utterly dismal and humiliating for Labour given their historic dominance of councils in particular), it's not actually much removed from the 2016 Holyrood elections for the SNP, Tories or the Lib Dems. I know council elections are bit different and. 2012 council elections didn't quite map to the 2011 Holyrood elections, but it's worth noting that this was mostly only true for the SNP (32% council, 44.5ish% Holyrood); Labour, Lib Dems and Tory vote shares were all only a couple of % between the two. So I think it's a fairly plausible poll, even if lower turnout might actually suit Labour for once.

For reference, here's the 2016 results:

Constituency vote shares:
SNP Scottish National Party 46.5%
LAB Scottish Labour 22.6%
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.0%
LD Scottish Lib Dems 7.8%
GRN Scottish Green Party 0.6%
OTH OTHERS 0.5%

Regional vote shares:
SNP Scottish National Party 41.7%
LAB Scottish Labour 19.1%
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.9%
LD Scottish Lib Dems 5.2%
GRN Scottish Green Party 6.6%
OTH OTHERS 4.5%

[Edit: wrote this quickly just as I got a bunch of work dumped on me, so came across as needlessly narky originally!]

Niric fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Mar 9, 2017

# ? Mar 9, 2017 13:24

Extreme0: Feb 28, 2013; I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!

I would think that holding a referendum before Brexit is a bad idea if you want to showcase the amount of damage it can cause, especially when it's being navigated by nasty idiots.

2018 gives at least campaigns almost one year and a half to do their thing unlike Brexit which was only three months.

forkboy84 posted:

You're probably right. We're not getting automatically into the EU whatever happens, so rushing to hold the referendum before Brexit actually happens is pointless.

Also, the Greens beating the Liberals to become the 4th party in Scottish politics is absolutely a huge positive.

We would not be getting into the EU automatically anyways since a referendum for joining the EU is required anyways.

Pissflaps posted:

I think that if there's another referendum the result will be closer than Brexit.

The Brexit result was pretty close anyways.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 19:49

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

Yeah I mean Brexit was close but this will be closer: like Quexit close.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 19:52

Fiction: Apr 28, 2011

I'm still down for the pan-Celtic union of Ireland, NI, and Scotland when Brexit goes fully tits up.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 19:55

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Fiction posted:

I'm still down for the pan-Celtic union of Ireland, NI, and Scotland when Brexit goes fully tits up.

What about the Welsh? And the Cornish? And the Bretons? And Galicia if you really want to stretch things to the point of absurdity?

Honestly, I'm not sure I see the point in a pan-Celtic union. It's not as if more connects us culturally to the Irish than the English at this point. Nah, Irish reunification combined with Scottish independence is the perfect solution for my former neighbours when I lived in Kinning Park. These were people who'd fly a UVF flag out their window all summer. Politics purely to spite the Orange Order & their ilk is fine by me.

# ? Mar 9, 2017 20:06

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

Pissflaps posted:

Yeah I mean Brexit was close but this will be closer: like Quexit close.

The referendum to ban portmanteaus ending in -xit, however, will pass in a landslide.

# ? Mar 10, 2017 01:45

Extreme0: Feb 28, 2013; I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!

Angepain posted:

The referendum to ban portmanteaus ending in -xit, however, will pass in a landslide.

No it won't. People still use Gate for anything controversy wise and the public are wrong about everything.

# ? Mar 10, 2017 04:38

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Extreme0 posted:

We would not be getting into the EU automatically anyways since a referendum for joining the EU is required anyways.

Unless you think the people who voted to stay in the EU would suddenly not want to be part of the EU after voting to leave the UK because it left the EU, we already had that referendum.

# ? Mar 10, 2017 08:50

Extreme0: Feb 28, 2013; I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!

Jedit posted:

Unless you think the people who voted to stay in the EU would suddenly not want to be part of the EU after voting to leave the UK because it left the EU, we already had that referendum.

All countries that have joined the EU have had a referendum at some point. It wouldn't surprise me if we had one regardless.

# ? Mar 12, 2017 01:49

Cerv: Sep 14, 2004; This is a silly post with little news value.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/12/mhairi-black-may-quit-depressing-parliament-after-single-term-as-mp

it's not normal to be talking about quitting only 2 years into being an MP is it

# ? Mar 12, 2017 21:46

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

It's not. Sounds like she didn't get the right careers advice.

# ? Mar 12, 2017 21:55

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

it sounds like she's just not committing at this point to running again for westminster in three years, which I think is a bit less extreme than talking about quitting. from what i hear westminster is pretty terrible so i can sympathise

# ? Mar 12, 2017 22:02

big scary monsters: Sep 2, 2011; -~Ｓｋｕｌｌｗａｖｅ~-

I hope she stands again, she's my MP and I've been pretty happy with her work in Parliament. Voted mainly Correctly, given some good speeches, generally seems to care about what happens to Paisley and be keen on the right sort of stuff.

# ? Mar 12, 2017 22:08

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

How's her constituency work?

# ? Mar 12, 2017 22:24

big scary monsters: Sep 2, 2011; -~Ｓｋｕｌｌｗａｖｅ~-

I've not had a reason to visit her surgery myself but she seems to be active in the constituency and brings up its interests in the House.

# ? Mar 12, 2017 22:36

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Lots of speculation over this today:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/841193369799950336

quote:

This morning, I'll make an important speech in Bute House ahead of the triggering of Article 50. Follow @ScotGovFM from 11.30am for updates.

Various places and people assuming it's a second indyref announcement, but no one appears to have a source to back that up yet

# ? Mar 13, 2017 09:27

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# ? May 19, 2024 09:42

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

I'd have expected it to say 'announcement' if it was.

I expect further superlatives about how much closer, inevitable and more imminent a second referendum is if Scotland is now.

Though it does highlight the corner she finds herself in.

# ? Mar 13, 2017 09:32

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