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Congressional Representative and incumbent Republican Tom Price has resigned his seat to join Trump's team. It is predicted to be the most crowded and expensive election in Georgia history. If no candidate reaches 50 percent, the top two finishers, regardless of party, will advance to a June 20 runoff. We're looking at our first real opportunity to gain ground on the national stage and take a seat from the Republicans, and the candidate leading the charge seems pretty damned good. His name is Jon Ossof, and he seems like the right sort of guy. Here's a link to what I'm guessing is an AP article or a press release since like a dozen sites are running it unmodified. http://www.dogonvillage.com/2017/02...bid-in-georgia/ quote:A Georgia native who grew up in the Sixth District, Ossoff served Georgia as a national security staffer in Congress for five years before leaving government for the private sector. You can support him here: https://electjon.com/ He's not the only one running, though. On the Democratic side we have: - Ragin Edwards, sales senior manager - Richard Keatley, college professor and former officer in the Navy - Rebecca Quigg, physician - Ron Slotin, former State Senator and candidate for GA-04 in 1996 And then on the Republican side, we have: The likely candidates: - Judson Hill, former State Senator - Karen Handel, former Secretary of State of Georgia, candidate for Governor in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and a bunch of hopefuls. GlyphGryph has issued a correction as of 18:21 on Mar 3, 2017 |
# ? Mar 3, 2017 17:01 |
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# ? May 13, 2024 07:20 |
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This district is one of those southern, diversifying, high education suburbs that Donald Trump did very poorly in relative to other Republicans. Price won re-election by 23, Romney won it in 2012 by 23, but Trump won it by 2. It could be a major test case both A. if the current energy on the left is enough to drive turnout to start winning special elections (Delaware was hopefully a good sign here) and B. if these higher education, diverse suburbs in places like Georgia and Texas may flip Dem if the Gop brand can totally be tied to Donald Trump. Ossoff winning this race would be taken as a significant sign that the Democrats have a real chance to take the house, and put a lot more pressure on Republicans in congress now to break from Trump to try to save themselves. It could be a lot like Scott Brown in 2010, which was a precursor of the republican 2010 wave and sapped support from Obama for other legislation. Basically, it is potentially a Really Big Deal.
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# ? Mar 3, 2017 17:10 |
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This is how the GOP is coming after Ossoff: A GOP Super PAC already launched an attack on Ossoff trying to frame him as an entitled frat boy with no experience, and they claim they "... [have] more coming that is being prepped against Ossoff": http://www.npr.org/2017/03/02/518136415/attack-ad-marks-new-era-for-millennials-running-for-office He also doesn't live in the district currently (he grew up there and currently lives 10 minutes south of it) but plans to move back into it as soon as his girlfriend finishes med school at Emory. They moved there so she could walk to classes.
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# ? Mar 3, 2017 17:15 |
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good luck to the freshly scrubbed overachiever young dem hope nobody takes it too bad when he loses by 10 points to the zaxby's chicken mascot
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# ? Mar 3, 2017 17:50 |
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The Muppets On PCP posted:good luck to the freshly scrubbed overachiever young dem Didn't the last Dem running for this position lose by 20? Isn't the district majority conservative? In that case losing by 10 would be an improvment.
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# ? Mar 4, 2017 14:49 |
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seen my words are backed with nuclear shitposts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4abVq2nyYg
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# ? Mar 4, 2017 15:39 |
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Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine.
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# ? Mar 4, 2017 18:05 |
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Trumpenproletariat posted:Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine. 'lets sit around and wait for something to happen before we do anything'
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# ? Mar 4, 2017 19:14 |
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Trumpenproletariat posted:Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine. lol sorry your life is hard
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# ? Mar 4, 2017 20:29 |
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Bip Roberts posted:lol sorry your life is hard It was pretty hard under President Obama, but since Donald Trump took over I found a great job within the fortnight. Trump don't waste no time in Making America Great Again.
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# ? Mar 4, 2017 21:54 |
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Seems like if any district is designed for Clinton's national strategy to work it would be this one, but I'm not sure how it'll turn out since he's just running against Trump enablers rather than Trump himself
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# ? Mar 5, 2017 00:41 |
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Badger of Basra posted:Seems like if any district is designed for Clinton's national strategy to work it would be this one, but I'm not sure how it'll turn out since he's just running against Trump enablers rather than Trump himself
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# ? Mar 5, 2017 00:48 |
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Trumpenproletariat posted:Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine. Not sure if you are aware but they are not just gonna go away. They are entrenched. But if we create a genuine progressive wave then we get the opportunity to create space they dont yet own, which weakens them in the process. The establishment absolutely does not want to see a massive wave expanding the Democratic party. Look at what that got the Rs - primaried leadership, tea party troublemakers, and a loose cannon as President that is making them all bend the knee despite their hatred of him. Putting the Democrars on the offense and giving them big wins is the absolute best way to weaken their leaderships grip on power. Because they may not win without us, but theres no way they are going to get out of the way.
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# ? Mar 5, 2017 00:49 |
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get that OUT of my face posted:if Ossoff were smart, he'd link his genera election opponent to the horrible policies that Trump and the GOP-majority congress want for the american people. and no, screaming "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA" is not one of them what % of the people in this district are actually opposed to those policies though, is what I'm curious about
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# ? Mar 5, 2017 00:52 |
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get that OUT of my face posted:if Ossoff were smart, he'd link his genera election opponent to the horrible policies that Trump and the GOP-majority congress want for the american people. and no, screaming "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA" is not one of them If he were smart he would build a powerful message and a narrative that casts himself as the hero capable of bringing about positive change, and simply use Trump as a point of contrast and a rhetorical wedge.
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# ? Mar 5, 2017 01:00 |
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Badger of Basra posted:what % of the people in this district are actually opposed to those policies though, is what I'm curious about GlyphGryph posted:If he were smart he would build a powerful message and a narrative that casts himself as the hero capable of bringing about positive change, and simply use Trump as a point of contrast and a rhetorical wedge.
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# ? Mar 5, 2017 01:45 |
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/country-club-republican-strikes-back_us_58caf59ce4b0ec9d29da2f19?wde428zl0ahhq6w29a New article about how the election go. Lots of money being poured in for sure.
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# ? Mar 17, 2017 03:46 |
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GlyphGryph posted:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/country-club-republican-strikes-back_us_58caf59ce4b0ec9d29da2f19?wde428zl0ahhq6w29a Hopefully a good showing the the dems there will convince the national level that the concept of "red states" is bullshit and that any state can be contested if they're willing actually contest it. I've said it on this subforum a hundred times and ill say it again, the only reason GA isnt a swing state is because the democrats are unwilling to turn it into one.
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# ? Mar 17, 2017 04:11 |
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Agean90 posted:Hopefully a good showing the the dems there will convince the national level that the concept of "red states" is bullshit and that any state can be contested if they're willing actually contest it. I've said it on this subforum a hundred times and ill say it again, the only reason GA isnt a swing state is because the democrats are unwilling to turn it into one. It might be that democrats are horrible. The "offensive": Honestly, how can you even remotely talk about "Offensive" when you continuously re-elect people like Wasserman, Pelosi, Schumer and the rest of the incumbent rot? Fog Tripper has issued a correction as of 22:31 on Mar 17, 2017 |
# ? Mar 17, 2017 22:17 |
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schumer at least shows some indication of knowing which way the wind is blowing. pelosi still defiantly insists that nothing is wrong
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# ? Mar 17, 2017 23:13 |
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Fog Tripper posted:It might be that democrats are horrible. ??? yes thats basically what i said
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# ? Mar 18, 2017 06:00 |
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The only thing being offensive is the Dems.
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# ? Mar 19, 2017 18:45 |
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https://twitter.com/stevesingiser/status/843838216184594432 New GA-6 poll has Ossoff at 41, Gray and Handel close for 2nd at 16. All GOP folks combined at just 48%. Seems pretty promising? GlyphGryph has issued a correction as of 18:30 on Mar 20, 2017 |
# ? Mar 20, 2017 17:17 |
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GlyphGryph posted:https://twitter.com/stevesingiser/status/843838216184594432 How does that seem promising? It seems like it suggests the GOP has more support than Ossoff. You're kidding yourself if you think that 100% of supporters for other democrats will vote for Ossoff. The democrats seem to be looking at a tea party-type problem here: democratic primary voters want a liberal, but a liberal may not be able to beat the Republican.
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# ? Mar 20, 2017 17:56 |
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Ogmius815 posted:How does that seem promising? It seems like it suggests the GOP has more support than Ossoff. You're kidding yourself if you think that 100% of supporters for other democrats will vote for Ossoff. The democrats seem to be looking at a tea party-type problem here: democratic primary voters want a liberal, but a liberal may not be able to beat the Republican. The GOP as a whole is polling less than 50% in a race that last went GOP by 61 to 38, and normally hovers around 65% support for the GOP. Ossof is already, individually, polling higher than any Democratic party candidate in the district in the last decade and a half (possibly longer, that's as far back as I checked). His party is polling higher than he is, and the Republicans are polling poorly. How exactly are you interpreting this where it isn't seen as "positive"? Even if he loses, these are big gains for the Dems and it is a very strong showing in an area that is traditionally hardcore Republican to see the Republicans failing to cross 50% support. GlyphGryph has issued a correction as of 18:36 on Mar 20, 2017 |
# ? Mar 20, 2017 18:30 |
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Ogmius815 posted:How does that seem promising? It seems like it suggests the GOP has more support than Ossoff. You're kidding yourself if you think that 100% of supporters for other democrats will vote for Ossoff. The democrats seem to be looking at a tea party-type problem here: democratic primary voters want a liberal, but a liberal may not be able to beat the Republican. I can't read the link because the site is down but if Ossoff is being sandbagged by a few Democrats, then the total Democratic share of the vote is higher than just his 41%. There is also the hope that Trump will be so toxic by the general election date that Republicans will actually defect like they did in '06 and he wouldn't need a lot of defections to carry him.
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# ? Mar 20, 2017 18:39 |
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There's another dem polling at 3%, so Ossoff is only 4 points behind if you assume both sides consolidate perfectly and turnout equally. If Ossoff has the enthusiasm advantage and Trump continues to poo poo the bed leading up to the general, he might actually win this. Even losing by 4 points in a core GOP district would be huge.
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# ? Mar 20, 2017 18:49 |
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If Republican voter turnout goes down and Democratic turnout goes up and outperforms the polls then it could actually be a genuine win, not to mention the possible effects of a second round. Not to mention it demonstrates that a simple, concise message on raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare coverage, and accountability in politics can play very well in districts that have been given up on by the consensus for years. Like he demonstrably does not have anything in his platform towards catering towards a red state demographic on social issues either. It's a perfect storm really because of Donald Trump's unpopularity in the district, shifting demographics, and the field not having a clear success to Tom Price, but its still something for any people trying to get more people elected on a progressive agenda should pay attention to.
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# ? Mar 20, 2017 20:18 |
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I guess my analysis of that poll is colored by my recent experience with elections. I now assume that democrats will loose every election until the votes are in and the D candidate has more of them.
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# ? Mar 20, 2017 21:43 |
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Ogmius815 posted:I guess my analysis of that poll is colored by my recent experience with elections. I now assume that democrats will loose every election until the votes are in and the D candidate has more of them. and sometimes not even then
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# ? Mar 20, 2017 22:59 |
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New polls: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/03/democrat-gaining-ground-in-georgia-special-election.html Ossoff is polling +1 against the most likely challenger, which is pretty huge
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# ? Mar 26, 2017 06:31 |
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Just throwing in some links to tweets from Nate Cohn about how the early vote is turning out in the GA-6th https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/846531645272403968 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/846892024146018304 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/847256025275269120 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/847257153450594305
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# ? Mar 30, 2017 02:40 |
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The fact that 2014 R turnout was still higher than 2017 D turnout so far kind of depresses me. What's it like to have a party that cares about midterms
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# ? Mar 30, 2017 02:56 |
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nachos posted:The fact that 2014 R turnout was still higher than 2017 D turnout so far kind of depresses me. What's it like to have a party that cares about midterms In all fairness, turnout for special elections are even lower than midterms. It's pretty nuts that dems are pulling midterm GOP level numbers for a 2017 special election
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# ? Mar 30, 2017 04:34 |
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HorseRenoir posted:In all fairness, turnout for special elections are even lower than midterms. It's pretty nuts that dems are pulling midterm GOP level numbers for a 2017 special election there are also simply more republicans than democrats
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# ? Mar 30, 2017 14:43 |
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more early voting data. higher turnout than 2014 so far https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/848200288863432704 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/848207577917870080 the question now is not if Ossoff will win the first round, but if he can get 50% and avoid a runoff
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# ? Apr 1, 2017 19:56 |
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how badly will him winning scare republicans?
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# ? Apr 1, 2017 19:59 |
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Jose posted:how badly will him winning scare republicans? Ossoff losing by 5 would freak the GOP out, Ossoff winning would put Republicans in defcon 1 "oh poo poo we're losing the house" mode. Tom Price won this district by like 20 points
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# ? Apr 1, 2017 20:11 |
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i swear to god if the dems don't properly take advantage of the kind of attitudes that are leading to poo poo like this race being as close as it is i am done with the party. they absolutely have to keep doing with other dems what they are doing with ossoff even if it's a district they likely won't win.
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# ? Apr 1, 2017 20:21 |
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# ? May 13, 2024 07:20 |
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financially racist posted:i swear to god if the dems don't properly take advantage of the kind of attitudes that are leading to poo poo like this race being as close as it is i am done with the party. they absolutely have to keep doing with other dems what they are doing with ossoff even if it's a district they likely won't win. lol yeah
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# ? Apr 1, 2017 20:26 |