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Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.
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Mar 4, 2017 23:52
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The best verse from the best book. But two words from it have been bugging me, time and chance. There is a hell of a lot of time and chance in play now.AstheWorldWorlds posted:I would prefer to discuss history, not fictional movies. If you want to discuss the Burma-Siam railway then I am open to that. There was nothing good or noble in that work, including the 100k+ it killed. Anything good out of that is merely incidental and to be taken in the context of thousands of humans bring ground up so a malevolent empire could have better communications to continue a campaign of murdering millions. It ( the movie) was a likely shared example that communicated the idea. I was angrier at you than I should have been, I had you confused with someone else. Cerebral Bore posted:I know I'm pointing out the obvious, but it's much easier to exploit someone if they think you are in it together. Being able to convince people that what they do has meaning is the most dangerous thing in the world. It's also fundamentally nesissary to any progress.
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Mar 5, 2017 05:08
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BrandorKP posted:The best verse from the best book. But two words from it have been bugging me, time and chance. There is a hell of a lot of time and chance in play now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGdhc9k07Ms&t=24s I can't stop laughing at the indignation that maybe, just maybe, one's occupation coexists alongside family, relationships, hobbies and yes faith, gently caress you D&D as tools to create a niche for one's self purportedly because Mike Rowe said a dumb thing. I strongly suspect those most strenuously voicing these objections have not done much volunteering work among marginal populations like the homeless, convicts, disabled, etc. The observation that the role of skilled work has been degraded by capitalistic pressures at all levels is a good and true one IMO, and it is my strong suspicion that trump's allure is conveying this sentiment to the halls of power, that if hard work is unappreciated at best and punished at worst and rewarded with the four ugliest words in the 21st century when someone above you realizes your skillset can squeeze a dime out of a nickel, then the effete shitheels in government who would dare tell us America Is Already Great can share a solidarity of misery if not a solidarity of class. quote:“There seems to be no effort to benefit from the knowledge and expertise of people who are here, who just want to help,” said the mid-level officer. Instead, they see the White House vilifying them as bureaucrats no one elected, and it all seems, the mid-level officer said, “symbolic of wanting to neuter the organization.” Yeah, welcome to the part of america that exists between Los Angeles and DC you loving jabronie. If you get a cat, then you get a scratching post and a litter box and a fishing rod mouse toy and you crack open the window in the summer so it can look out on the world not because of 19th century political writings about the obligations and ideologies of cat ownership, or 20th century writings about the econometrics of feline desire, but because cats don't really need a whole lot when you think about it and providing that keeps them from meowing at all hours and pouncing on your toes at 3AM when you're trying to sleep. When you have a shat-upon population you give them a place to live and food to eat and a worldly pleasure or three and a loving thing to do in this world or they start acting out and shooting guns where they should not and screaming filth at outgroups and casting misanthropic votes for political office if they bother to vote at all. Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Mar 5, 2017 |
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Mar 5, 2017 09:35
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Did the bible ever predict man creating robots and computers?
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Mar 6, 2017 00:13
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Willie Tomg posted:Yeah, welcome to the part of america that exists between Los Angeles and DC you loving jabronie. I was thinking recently about Trump's plan to cut billions from Federal agencies and give it to the military, and I realized it was a fairly straightforward redistribution of government spoils from liberal leaning well-educated white collar workers to conservative leaning men without college degrees. Seems like good politics tbh.
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Mar 6, 2017 00:16
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Helsing posted:Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. Whenever I read Ecclesiastes it has to be in The Message translation, it's my favorite text of all time (it's a comforting text in the era of Trump): Whatever turns up, grab it and do it. And heartily! This is your last and only chance at it, For there’s neither work to do nor thoughts to think In the company of the dead, where you’re most certainly headed. I took another walk around the neighborhood and realized that on this earth as it is— The race is not always to the swift, Nor the battle to the strong, Nor satisfaction to the wise, Nor riches to the smart, Nor grace to the learned. Sooner or later bad luck hits us all. For Mike Rowe: I turned my head and saw yet another wisp of smoke on its way to nothingness: a solitary person, completely alone—no children, no family, no friends—yet working obsessively late into the night, compulsively greedy for more and more, never bothering to ask, “Why am I working like a dog, never having any fun? And who cares?” More smoke. A bad business. A good reputation is better than a fat bank account. Your death date tells more than your birth date. You learn more at a funeral than at a feast After all, that’s where we’ll end up. We might discover something from it. So I congratulated the dead who are already dead instead of the living who are still alive. But luckier than the dead or the living is the person who has never even been, who has never seen the bad business that takes place on this earth.  that translation simultaneously is depressingly hopeless while the reader laughs at man's futile attempts to overcome absurdity. Who needs to read Camus, Sartre, etc. when you got good ol Qoheleth?
Confounding Factor fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Mar 6, 2017 |
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Mar 6, 2017 01:16
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People's need for a "loving thing to do in this world" is as nesissary to them as food or shelter. They will do things as desperate to get it as if they didn't have food. Fascism and racism are the equivalent of boiling leather and wall paper to eat. Well that's not fair to boiling leather to eat. They're more the last ditch desperate cannabalism. Our economic systems must account for this need. What has been bugging me is the widespread attitude of "lol nothing matters in D&D". The need for meaning, and something to do in the world, well one's giving a poo poo can contribute, can start, to meet that need in others. The response of hurr "protestant work ethic", to ignore this real need people have, and is part of what lets Rowe's list and even Trump's crap flourish. They are the garbage that people will fufill thier needs with if something healthy isn't availible.
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Mar 6, 2017 02:14
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BrandorKP posted:People's need for a "loving thing to do in this world" is as nesissary to them as food or shelter. They will do things as desperate to get it as if they didn't have food. Fascism and racism are the equivalent of boiling leather and wall paper to eat. Well that's not fair to boiling leather to eat. They're more the last ditch desperate cannabalism. Our economic systems must account for this need. It's true that people need something to do and the protestant work ethic isn't bad in and of itself. The problem is that this is used as an excuse to pay people starvation wages to generate profit for the rich. The protestant work ethic just justifies that people who are losing the fruits of their labor to somebody else for no reason other than "lol people like me own everything, what are you going to do?" should still work hard. It's a deliberate corruption of what is ultimately not a bad thing. Yeah people go crazy if they have nothing to do, no direction, and no meaning but American society has decided that you must justify your existence either by being rich or generating profit for somebody else who is. If you are neither of those then gently caress you buddy go die of exposure somewhere I can't be inconvenienced by seeing it happen.
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Mar 6, 2017 02:35
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BrandorKP posted:People's need for a "loving thing to do in this world" is as nesissary to them as food or shelter. They will do things as desperate to get it as if they didn't have food. Fascism and racism are the equivalent of boiling leather and wall paper to eat. Well that's not fair to boiling leather to eat. They're more the last ditch desperate cannabalism. Our economic systems must account for this need. The issue is which system harnesses that best: a system that forces people into jobs they aren't suited for just so they can survive, while fostering competition and insecurity in order to keep wages low while a few get rich. Or a system in which we impose rules to make sure all of us have a minimum standard of existence, while making opportunities for people to express their unique talents and thus enrich us all. Heaven only knows what talents capitalism has wasted by forcing people suited for one thing to do another, and thus heaven only knows the vast amount of wealth that hasn't been created due to capitalism's parsimonious allocation of capital into the hands of a few. The answer is rules that put capital into the hands of lots of people so they can create wealth pursuant to their individual talent. In the short run, I'd be happy with higher (much higher) taxes on the rich, and the redistribution of wealth (and hence power) to working people, who historically use it to educate themselves and increase standard of living for everybody. It makes a difference what policies are followed and progressive policies have cumulative effects. Little improvements over time have big consequences. I like the fact that our system allows for small businesses where people can use their talents in the way they want to produce real goods and services. But for that to work, we need to disempower large corporations and get more capital to regular citizens. Do that, in the long run you wind up with a more prosperous, more democratic, more educated population. It's actually not that hard policy wise (just tax the hell out of the rich and put that money in education and health care, etc). But the politics themselves are difficult and require a longterm effort. Confounding Factor fucked around with this message at 03:47 on Mar 6, 2017 |
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Mar 6, 2017 03:45
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Squalid posted:I was thinking recently about Trump's plan to cut billions from Federal agencies and give it to the military, and I realized it was a fairly straightforward redistribution of government spoils from liberal leaning well-educated white collar workers to conservative leaning men without college degrees. Seems like good politics tbh. it's not logical to think "more money for the military" means "soldiers will take home more pay", it never meant that
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Mar 6, 2017 10:13
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The terrible thing about the "Protestant Work Ethic" is that it says nothing about the idleness of the rich; only the poor. You are a horrible monster if you are poor and do not put everything you have into a lovely job that exploits every manner of your being. You are doing God's work if you are rich, show up to the office a couple hours a day to "make decisions", and otherwise let your vast sums of money compound while sitting in the bank or in stocks. These billionaires doing jack poo poo to advance human well-being, health, and knowledge through their minimal or complete lack of use of their own capital should be the true demons of the Protestant Work Ethic, yet, are considered saints for simply having vast amounts of capital.
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Mar 6, 2017 10:31
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Avalanche posted:The terrible thing about the "Protestant Work Ethic" is that it says nothing about the idleness of the rich; only the poor. Exactly, it's no coincidence that the people that bankroll Mike Rowe have sons and daughters that have never and will never do one of the jobs he constantly talks about.
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Mar 7, 2017 01:24
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Avalanche posted:The terrible thing about the "Protestant Work Ethic" is that it says nothing about the idleness of the rich; only the poor. God decides who is rich and who is poor. A person who is rich obviously must deserve it for some reason. A person who is poor obviously must deserve it for some reason. Anybody who is in charge of anything was also put there by God so we must do whatever they say. Unless they disagree with me. Then that person is the antichrist.
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Mar 7, 2017 01:31
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The method god uses to decide who is rich and who is poor is the same method he used to decide who was born a noble and who a peasant. Our method of equalizing should be the same.
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Mar 7, 2017 10:37
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Freakazoid_ posted:Did the bible ever predict man creating robots and computers? No, but I'm guessing "artisanal" is just a modern word for "ritualized", and that there were a lot of early shepherd boys who spent a long time dreaming of the hunt.
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Mar 7, 2017 16:31
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So should I be concerned that I am seeing reports of downturn in recourse extraction sectors of Africa's economy while I am also seeing German Manufacturing taking a hit?
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Mar 7, 2017 18:44
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Crowsbeak posted:So should I be concerned that I am seeing reports of downturn in recourse extraction sectors of Africa's economy while I am also seeing German Manufacturing taking a hit? You should. Also check the Baltic Dry Index. It's low as it's ever been.
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Mar 7, 2017 19:51
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I haven't seen anything about the CBO scoring the Republican healthcare replacement plan, but I cannot imagine it will be good for either consumers or for the insurance and medical provider industries at all. It's a huge, huge portion of the United States' economy, if it passes I can only imagine the repercussions that will resonate through the market, even if whatever lovely provisions don't go into effect until 2018 or whenever they feel like abdicating responsibility.
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Mar 7, 2017 20:03
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Ol Standard Retard posted:I haven't seen anything about the CBO scoring the Republican healthcare replacement plan, but I cannot imagine it will be good for either consumers or for the insurance and medical provider industries at all. It's a huge, huge portion of the United States' economy, if it passes I can only imagine the repercussions that will resonate through the market, even if whatever lovely provisions don't go into effect until 2018 or whenever they feel like abdicating responsibility. There's no way that what was revealed today will get enacted. It sets up a time bomb on a very, very short fuse because the correct strategy becomes to ditch health insurance, pocket the tax credit, and then only get health insurance when you need it and just pay the 30% premium, but pre-existing conditions will be covered. This strategy will create a situation in which only the extremely sick have health insurance, so costs will rapidly spiral to the extreme.
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Mar 7, 2017 20:08
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Twerk from Home posted:There's no way that what was revealed today will get enacted. It sets up a time bomb on a very, very short fuse because the correct strategy becomes to ditch health insurance, pocket the tax credit, and then only get health insurance when you need it and just pay the 30% premium, but pre-existing conditions will be covered. This was my reading of it as well, but your bolded statement is similar to what we all said about Trump's election and the Scalia replacement and the Bannon appointment etc. There's no limit to the depravity of the Republican Party in service of their personal financial goals, I just wonder if they're receiving enough furious, screaming phone calls from executives at Aetna reaming out their assholes for loving with their lil fiefdoms.
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Mar 7, 2017 20:10
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Dawncloack posted:You should. Also check the Baltic Dry Index. It's low as it's ever been. I'm not getting what you're implying here.
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Mar 7, 2017 20:13
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MiddleOne posted:I'm not getting what you're implying here.
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Mar 7, 2017 20:21
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Companies aren't shipping that much stuff at the moment, indicating that the economy isn't in a great state? Check the index, it's been hovering between 500-1500 since 2014 and right now it's approaching a 1000 again. For comparison, last year in February it hit an all-time low at 290. Again, what am I supposed to be seeing here?
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Mar 7, 2017 20:34
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I'm pretty sure they are deliberately trying to see if they can ram this through really fast before people notice. There is no CBO scoring yet, which is also a feature of their strategy. If they can pass it quickly by the time that scoring comes out it won't matter to them.
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Mar 7, 2017 20:56
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MiddleOne posted:Check the index, it's been hovering between 500-1500 since 2014 and right now it's approaching a 1000 again. For comparison, last year in February it hit an all-time low at 290. Again, what am I supposed to be seeing here?
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Mar 7, 2017 21:21
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Ever since 2008 happened I've been obsessed with the idea of timing the next crash and selling everything right before it happens. While I'm glad I didn't dump anything yet and got to enjoy the ill-gotten Trump stock market gains, I'm wondering if it's around time to bow out into cash for a bit.
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Mar 7, 2017 21:23
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call to action posted:Ever since 2008 happened I've been obsessed with the idea of timing the next crash and selling everything right before it happens. While I'm glad I didn't dump anything yet and got to enjoy the ill-gotten Trump stock market gains, I'm wondering if it's around time to bow out into cash for a bit. Yeah, timing is always difficult, I am continuing to watch unemployment data to see if the current trend holds.
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Mar 7, 2017 21:40
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MiddleOne posted:Check the index, it's been hovering between 500-1500 since 2014 and right now it's approaching a 1000 again. For comparison, last year in February it hit an all-time low at 290. Again, what am I supposed to be seeing here? A buttery pastry explained my point perfectly, that's what I meant. Am I wrong in thinking that it means trade is on the downswing? I seem to remember someone in this thread commenting that the shipping line in which they worked was going from global to regional. What do you think, though?
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Mar 7, 2017 21:48
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A Buttery Pastry posted:You aren't looking that far back. Where it's hovering now is around the floor it reached when the financial crisis hit, it has been significantly higher than that both before and after. (Though going even further back they return to somewhere around that floor again.) Didn't people mention earlier in the thread that some shipping companies probably won't be able to keep going at these prices? I've been talking about container lines, it is a different market. Bulk is breathing a little easier than it was a few years ago. It's not strong by any means. There are more and smaller carriers on the bulk side. When one fails it is not as big, a deal as a container line failing. But a demand drop would hurt bulk too.
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Mar 7, 2017 21:49
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call to action posted:Ever since 2008 happened I've been obsessed with the idea of timing the next crash and selling everything right before it happens. While I'm glad I didn't dump anything yet and got to enjoy the ill-gotten Trump stock market gains, I'm wondering if it's around time to bow out into cash for a bit. On the other side here, I wasn't financially secure enough to start investing money until maybe 6 months ago, and was initially holding off to see how the election goes. Now I'm just letting my savings account build up until everything falls to pieces and then get in when it's low (I don't care about being at the absolute low, just not at this high/unprecedented growth we're at). At least, that's the plan. I hope it's a good one but who knows
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Mar 7, 2017 23:34
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mitztronic posted:On the other side here, I wasn't financially secure enough to start investing money until maybe 6 months ago, and was initially holding off to see how the election goes. Now I'm just letting my savings account build up until everything falls to pieces and then get in when it's low (I don't care about being at the absolute low, just not at this high/unprecedented growth we're at). At least, that's the plan. I hope it's a good one but who knows I keep my wealth in arduinos and led strips.
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Mar 7, 2017 23:35
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mitztronic posted:On the other side here, I wasn't financially secure enough to start investing money until maybe 6 months ago, and was initially holding off to see how the election goes. Now I'm just letting my savings account build up until everything falls to pieces and then get in when it's low (I don't care about being at the absolute low, just not at this high/unprecedented growth we're at). At least, that's the plan. I hope it's a good one but who knows Market timing has been a losing strategy throughout all of modern history. Unless you have insider information that's illegal to act on, or are an incredibly successful / lucky researcher like the guy who popped lumber liquidators, you're better off assuming that the market will be higher in 30 years than it is now and just tossing your long-term investment money in.
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Mar 7, 2017 23:37
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Well, my problem is that I don't believe that to be true.
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Mar 8, 2017 00:10
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Twerk from Home posted:Market timing has been a losing strategy throughout all of modern history. Unless you have insider information that's illegal to act on, or are an incredibly successful / lucky researcher like the guy who popped lumber liquidators, you're better off assuming that the market will be higher in 30 years than it is now and just tossing your long-term investment money in. I don't think the gains of industrialization and then computerization across the entire globe will be repeated again, and I think it's pretty foolish to make an assumption along those lines. With the spectre of climate change and automation looming, assuming "normal" 7% annualized gains seems positively idiotic. The continued disconnect between equities and any economic index that relates to real people/consumers should also be worrying. Maybe you can dollar-cost average into the market over the next year or so, that wouldn't be so bad. But making a huge, lump sum index fund purchase now seems like a bad idea as the market is frothy with essentially no reason behind it.
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Mar 8, 2017 00:22
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Twerk from Home posted:Market timing has been a losing strategy throughout all of modern history. Unless you have insider information that's illegal to act on, or are an incredibly successful / lucky researcher like the guy who popped lumber liquidators, you're better off assuming that the market will be higher in 30 years than it is now and just tossing your long-term investment money in. Hm, I see where you're coming from, but I'm not worried about market timing with regard to removing my money later on, just my initial investment. This might be wrong, but let me explain my thinking: It took me a lot of work, time, and dedication to get to where I am, so I am a very risk-adverse with this chunk of money I have saved up, and I would like to get as much from it as possible. Call it sentiment. I frankly don't have confidence in the market (or the country). I see two main options 1) get in now and in 10, 20, 30 years++ i will be a multi billionaire i dont have anywhere near that much money, or 2) hold out a little while longer, get a small % growth in my savings account, see if the market collapses and then buy (at any point, doesn't have to be rock bottom) for a much better ROI on my initial investment - which took me a long time to get to. I admit there is some emotion here, and that it's not entirely logically but if I put my money in now and then I see in a couple weeks, or a couple months, that the markets are down 10, 20% I will feel like I made a mistake. I can also see where this idea breaks down, if the market doesn't collapse then I'm just gimping myself, so I've thought it through, at least e: quote:But making a huge, lump sum index fund purchase now seems like a bad idea as the market is frothy with essentially no reason behind it.
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Mar 8, 2017 00:30
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mitztronic posted:On the other side here, I wasn't financially secure enough to start investing money until maybe 6 months ago, and was initially holding off to see how the election goes. Now I'm just letting my savings account build up until everything falls to pieces and then get in when it's low (I don't care about being at the absolute low, just not at this high/unprecedented growth we're at). At least, that's the plan. I hope it's a good one but who knows I think the market is overpriced and crazy right now, but everyone who pulled out when Trump won the election or have been just sitting out probably lost out on 13% of gains in the last few months. The market could crash out tomorrow, or maybe they open up the floodgates on infrastructure projects and tax cuts and it streams forward another 20% before correcting. In the long-term you need to catch these upswings to counter the downswings you'll be hit by.
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Mar 8, 2017 04:29
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call to action posted:I don't think the gains of industrialization and then computerization across the entire globe will be repeated again, and I think it's pretty foolish to make an assumption along those lines. With the spectre of climate change and automation looming, assuming "normal" 7% annualized gains seems positively idiotic. The continued disconnect between equities and any economic index that relates to real people/consumers should also be worrying. I've been wondering the same thing, it seems unlikely the economic growth that underpins modern long-term investing advice (ie just buy a bunch of index funds) will be sustained over the next 30 years. I wouldn't be surprised if the long-term investment returns going forward fall well below the 7% historical norm. On the other hand, what else are you (a member of the global bourgeoisie) going to do with your savings? Stocks probably aren't going to do any worse than hoarding cash/gold/real estate as a long term investment.
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Mar 8, 2017 04:56
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Its almost like gambling on the market isnt a real long term retirement solution
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Mar 8, 2017 05:05
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Aren't near-term corrections only an issue if you're an aspiring day trader? Anyone who's worried that their timing is bad is probably motivated by the wrong ideas. Either you're investing over a long enough term the correction is meaningless, you're a trader who genuinely knows what you're doing, or Trump crashes the economy so hard that you wish you had something more to barter with than what the big people in the before-time called "money".
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Mar 8, 2017 05:13
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mitztronic posted:This describes my situation It's true and good advice, but you can't let your emotion rule your investing behavior. I recommend you get a copy of the book The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, your gut feelings are not your friend. You will never successfully time the market. Humans are naturally risk averse, but losses from missed opportunities are just as real as those from over-optimism. If you want to read about people who successfully bet against the market, read the Big Short, or just see the movie. Even with a market as ridiculous as the 2007 derivatives bubble, it required an enormous amount of research and/or a deep understanding of fundamental financial processes to understand how to make money off the collapse. And even when all the data was telling them to bet against the housing market, they came under enormous psychological pressure to ignore it. History tells us we mostly can't resist the pressure to conform. Just invest a little cash every month, good news or bad. Average out your risk and don't let your hunches and psychological hangups rule what should be a rational decision.
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Mar 8, 2017 05:20
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