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araeris posted:B&R list update announcement is on Monday. Presumably everything was finalized last week. Felidar Guardian is infinitely more likely to eat it than Saheeli is; which is a shame because the Guardian / Oath of Chandra interaction is legitimately neat.
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Mar 11, 2017 16:17
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araeris posted:B&R list update announcement is on Monday. Presumably everything was finalized last week. Copy cat combo is making standard worse but the rest are just "good" cards.
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Mar 11, 2017 16:18
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My prediction is either cat or saheeli or nothing, and those two only because they don't want it overshadowing Amonkhet. They might equally not do that now, and instead do it at the Amonkhet B&R update to avoid shaking up the format unnecessarily. Banning anything else would be a really bad sign, none of this format's problems are things that banning individual cards is going to solve.
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Mar 11, 2017 16:31
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They shouldn't ban good cards imo, just broken cards, which describes neither Scrapheap or Ballista
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Mar 11, 2017 16:35
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They're not going to touch standard for at least two years. In modern they will maybe bam some fast mana.
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Mar 11, 2017 16:38
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Soul Glo posted:They shouldn't ban good cards imo, just broken cards, which describes neither Scrapheap or Ballista I don't think anything needs to eat a ban right now.
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Mar 11, 2017 16:39
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Lets ban fast mana in modern. No reason all these tier 2 and 3 decks needs to be playable.
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Mar 11, 2017 16:45
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I would like to see Felidar and Ballista go. Ballista is simply too good/universal of a card, and banning it would force decks to play more in their colors. (I hate every artifact set)
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Mar 11, 2017 16:51
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DangerDongs posted:I would like to see Felidar and Ballista go. Ballista is fine. It doesn't need a banning What we need is graveyard hate and lightning bolt.
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Mar 11, 2017 17:07
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I wouldn't be surprised if nothing got changed for modern
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Mar 11, 2017 17:11
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Other than scrounger and torrential gearhulk, what requires graveyard hate in this format? Neither of these are completely ruining the format. Emrakul is gone. I don't think Walking Ballista is breaking the format, but it really is insanely good for being colorless.
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Mar 11, 2017 17:12
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I highly doubt they ban Saheeli. If anything goes it's the cat, I bet. Scrounger could easily get wrecked also but I'll be fairly surprised if it does. I'll be fairly surprised if anything more than just Guardian does actually, that would be a TON of cards banned for standard, the most in what, 15 years?
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Mar 11, 2017 17:19
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My guesses are: Standard: Nothing Modern: Mox Opal Legacy: Wait. That's a format, still?
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Mar 11, 2017 17:23
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Wurzag posted:I wouldn't be surprised if nothing got changed for modern Same, it's been pretty healthy around me and I haven't looked at recent tourney results closely enough to say what should be banned. Sickening posted:Lets ban fast mana in modern. No reason all these tier 2 and 3 decks needs to be playable. I think banning some fast mana in Modern is on their to-do list, but they're looking for a reason to do so. From my perspective Wizards of the past few years hasn't really wanted fast mana to be around in any form- rituals, mana dorks, Sol lands and the like. Maybe this is obvious to others but I'll bet someone at Wizards has been tasked with keeping an eye on Gifts Storm in Modern, waiting to see if it gets "too good" before they ban another ritual.
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Mar 11, 2017 17:26
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It's more that there's no response, no counterplay. You have to pay a ton of mana to get rid of a 3/2 for good by using cards that don't really hurt any of the other threats - Winding Constrictor dodges death by Brutal Expulsion, for example - or play Anguished Unmaking on their 2 drop and lose 3 life anyway. You can't deactivate Delirium so once it's on they get extra value on their flayers and grafwidows. And there's no way to stop Torrential Gearhulk's 2-for-1. There were graveyard decks in RTR standards, which had Rest In Peace. It took Scavenging Ooze to stop Deadbridge Chant decks, and Whip lists still existed with Scooze. Graveyard strategies are harder to defeat than that. Cremate wouldn't hose Torrential Gearhulk and Delirium into oblivion but it at least would let you do something.
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Mar 11, 2017 17:27
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C-Euro posted:Same, it's been pretty healthy around me and I haven't looked at recent tourney results closely enough to say what should be banned. Wizards also didn't want efficient removal to be around for the last few years and that design decision did wonders for them.
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Mar 11, 2017 17:31
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Imo, the combo's being banned, and I can imagine something like Scrounger eating a bullet on similar grounds to Reflector Mage. (And who wouldn't mind Gideon going away? tbf, he'll likely overshadow Amonkhet's Gideon).
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Mar 11, 2017 17:45
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Rinkles posted:Imo, the combo's being banned, and I can imagine something like Scrounger eating a bullet on similar grounds to Reflector Mage. (And who wouldn't mind Gideon going away? tbf, he'll likely overshadow Amonkhet's Gideon). I think the people who bought Gideons would mind that immensely
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Mar 11, 2017 17:47
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In my deck last night I was playing Sigarda in the side and it hoses Ballista so much, most times I ever had to play against it I would kill it before it got to 4 counters and Sigarda saved me from taking damage to the face in games vs. Mardu and GB
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Mar 11, 2017 17:47
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TheKingofSprings posted:I think the people who bought Gideons would mind that immensely Yeah, there was a degree of unmarked internet sarcasm there
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Mar 11, 2017 17:48
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Lottery of Babylon posted:I don't think so? I figure there are (56 choose 7)/(60 choose 7) ways to draw an opening hand with zero of your four Leylines, so the probability of drawing at least one Leyline in your opening hand is 1 minus that number. Then square it because you have to do it twice. You're not counting replacement I don't think. No one uses choose notation when figuring out card odds, it's always hypergeometric. 60 population, 4 successes, 7 samples...
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Mar 11, 2017 18:17
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Banning something now would be dumb. Standard is going to suck for a while regardless of bannings. Of course no one but the people playing fevered visions are trying anything except vehicles, bg or cats.
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Mar 11, 2017 18:19
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Soul Glo posted:They shouldn't ban good cards imo, just broken cards, which describes neither Scrapheap or Ballista  I would have agreed in the past but the reflector mage ban still points at a more aggressive thought process and now I don't really have an idea of what's getting bant
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Mar 11, 2017 18:20
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:You're not counting replacement I don't think. No one uses choose notation when figuring out card odds, it's always hypergeometric. 60 population, 4 successes, 7 samples... I did it a different way and got the same result. You are calculating the chances of no leylines drawn at all first: (56/60, chance of drawing any non-leyline card)*(55/59 chance of drawing any non-leyline card, factoring in one is missing)... = chance of NO leylines 1- chance of NO leylines = chance of 1 or more leylines chance of 1 or more leylines * chance of 1 or more leylines = chance of 1 or more leylines in two consecutive games. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(1-((56%2F60)*(55%2F59)*(54%2F58)*(53%2F57)*(52%2F56)*(51%2F55)*(50%2F54)))%5E2
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Mar 11, 2017 18:24
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Errant Gin Monks posted:Banning something now would be dumb. Standard is going to suck for a while regardless of bannings. Of course no one but the people playing fevered visions are trying anything except vehicles, bg or cats. I just completely disagree with this. The makings of a good format are there without a 2-card instant win combo suppressing every single midrange and control strategy Fundamentally, Cat Lady is just not an interaction they've been ok with in standard for many years. I'll be shocked if it's not banned, especially after the explicit admission that it was an accident.
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Mar 11, 2017 18:33
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Rinkles posted:Imo, the combo's being banned, and I can imagine something like Scrounger eating a bullet on similar grounds to Reflector Mage. (And who wouldn't mind Gideon going away? tbf, he'll likely overshadow Amonkhet's Gideon). Scrounger won't get banned. It is too important to keeping aggro alive in the format, especially after they banned Copter, they need an artifact two drop and at least it requires you play black mana. Gideon is good but not even close to ban worthy, and promotes the same creature strategies they want to be in the format. Just rip off the band aid and ban Felidar nobody wants that combo around forever and it has the same problem as Reflector Mage which is it makes creature based strategies look bad. When you cast a 5 mana 8/8 and your opponent bounces it and then your next turn you have 2 of them in your hand it's that 'feel bad' magic they specifically want to avoid. Felidar goes in exactly one deck, and other than Saheeli dropping in price and the combo exiting the format nothing gets too disrupted, and potentially some new midrange decks emerge. Scrounger is a vital tool to beating control as aggro, makes exiling clauses matter, is a maindeck all star in zombies and mardu vehicles and sees sideboard play in BG. Speaking of standard as a whole I think it is bad the deck to beat is a 3 color aggressive deck that's quite challenging to play and play against, and it's also the most expensive deck in the format but I don't think banning it is an answer to those problems.
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Mar 11, 2017 19:00
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Errant Gin Monks posted:Banning something now would be dumb. Standard is going to suck for a while regardless of bannings. Of course no one but the people playing fevered visions are trying anything except vehicles, bg or cats. I think they'll ban the cat, but the only way they could realistically improve Standard through bannings would be to ban Winding Constrictor, Felidar Guardian, Aetherworks Marvel and Heart of Kiran, and they aren't gonna do that. The cat does nothing good for standard beyond make several decks completely non-viable because they can't interact with the combo.
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Mar 11, 2017 19:04
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As long as they don't ban any of the 3 fog spells I'm good
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Mar 11, 2017 19:19
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TheKingofSprings posted:Wizards also didn't want efficient removal to be around for the last few years and that design decision did wonders for them. I'm not saying that they're right to cut fast mana out of the game, it's just the trend that I've noticed.
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Mar 11, 2017 19:23
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TheKingofSprings posted:Wizards also didn't want efficient removal to be around for the last few years and that design decision did wonders for them. I think the idea was to cut "unfun" stuff out of the game but the problem is that lots of the threats they design are unfun.
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Mar 11, 2017 19:37
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80s James Hetfield posted:As long as they don't ban any of the 3 fog spells I'm good Don't hold your breath. That deck has wrecked enough havoc on three LGS for long enough.
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Mar 11, 2017 19:42
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I'd be legitimately surprised if anything is banned for Modern. The only thing that's popped up as a major threat is Death's Shadow, and that won't eat a ban because there are too many 1 mana kill spells for it. I'm more interested in what could possibly be unbanned. There's obviously been lots of discussion about Jace, but but I don't think control needs another toy. I'd like to see BBE, just to see how Jund would change because of it.
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Mar 11, 2017 19:52
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Angry Grimace posted:I think the idea was to cut "unfun" stuff out of the game but the problem is that lots of the threats they design are unfun. What is actually fun about Magic? For me at least it's not the combat.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:00
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TheKingofSprings posted:What is actually fun about Magic? I can only assume they thought playing a cool dude and having it eat a Hero's Downfall was "unfun." I don't get why that's a card that rotated to begin with rather than seeing an almost immediate reprint given they were planning to print Gideon the second it rotated.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:07
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Angry Grimace posted:I think they'll ban the cat, but the only way they could realistically improve Standard through bannings would be to ban Winding Constrictor, Felidar Guardian, Aetherworks Marvel and Heart of Kiran, and they aren't gonna do that. If Amonkhet really has good cards that dish out -1/-1 counters, that'll take care of the Constrictor problem. I could live with seeing Heart go and them just admitting further they hosed up on vehicles.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:09
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Angry Grimace posted:I can only assume they thought playing a cool dude and having it eat a Hero's Downfall was "unfun." I don't get why that's a card that rotated to begin with rather than seeing an almost immediate reprint given they were planning to print Gideon the second it rotated. Because they were "reprinting" it in Ruinous Path. It fits the set better but obviously awaken being upside at 7 mana isn't worth losing instant speed. Hero's Downfall is also a little bit oppressive in that expensive planeswalkers are less viable. You can certainly make the argument that it creates interesting deck building choices between it and Murder that simply wouldn't exist with Downfall in the format. I just hope they don't go crazy, ban the Cat or nothing at all. Once you start getting rid of pieces like Scrounger, Gideon, Heart of Kiran or winding Constrictor you don't know what type of format you wind up with, and banning the chase mythics is just not good for standard. I'd have them announce that the Cat is going to be banned as soon as Amonkhet is legal, I feel like that's the best compromise that can be had given the state of things.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:42
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Marketing New Brain posted:Because they were "reprinting" it in Ruinous Path. It fits the set better but obviously awaken being upside at 7 mana isn't worth losing instant speed. Hero's Downfall is also a little bit oppressive in that expensive planeswalkers are less viable. You can certainly make the argument that it creates interesting deck building choices between it and Murder that simply wouldn't exist with Downfall in the format. I stopped reading when you said hero's downfall is oppressive.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:45
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Sickening posted:I stopped reading when you said hero's downfall is oppressive. Yeah to planeswalker design. . . .is that controversial? They have enough time balancing them as is, downfall just makes you not want to put planeswalkers in your deck, which is bad for business.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:54
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Marketing New Brain posted:Yeah to planeswalker design. . . .is that controversial? They have enough time balancing them as is, downfall just makes you not want to put planeswalkers in your deck, which is bad for business. I am pretty sure planeswalkers still saw a healthy amount of play the entire time it was in the format. Having good answers for good cards isn't oppressive.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:56
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Sickening posted:I am pretty sure planeswalkers still saw a healthy amount of play the entire time it was in the format. Having good answers for good cards isn't oppressive. It was in the same set as Elspeth, Sun's Champion, who was a domineering force for her tenure.
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Mar 11, 2017 20:59
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