|
Discendo Vox posted:Does the report also doa premiums forecast? I hope that old people enjoy spending $40k per year on health insurance.
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 00:52 |
|
|
http://www.vox.com/2017/3/13/14907100/cbo-report-ahca-obamacare-replace-read Can read the CBO report in its entirety.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:18
|
|
|
Unfortunately it looks like the report projects a decrease in the deficit. I was hoping it would increase as that would piss off the conservative wing even more; they don't give a poo poo about people losing coverage.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:18
|
|
|
The CBO concluded that the heath care market would remain stable, premiums would increase until 2020, and decrease thereafter - but that the decrease is overall and old people would get the shaft compared to now. edit: note that it appears that the basis for that conclusion is mostly that insurers will offer shittier insurance that costs close to the new low premium credit amounts.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:20
|
|
|
HappyHippo posted:Unfortunately it looks like the report projects a decrease in the deficit. I was hoping it would increase as that would piss off the conservative wing even more; they don't give a poo poo about people losing coverage. Curious about the mechanism by which that works- mostly just cutting Medicare and company?
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:21
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Curious about the mechanism by which that works- mostly just cutting Medicare and company? It can be summed up in one line: quote:A reduction of $880 billion in federal outlays for Medicaid;
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:23
|
|
|
They also weren't able to dynamically score it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:23
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Curious about the mechanism by which that works- mostly just cutting Medicare and company? Medicaid, but yes. Cuts to Medicaid exceed the revenue lost in the tax cuts and credits. It's 1.2 trillion less in outlays and .9 trillion in reduced revenue
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:24
|
|
|
Both the NYTimes and the Washington Post are running with the 24 million number, for what it's worth. I expect that's going to continue to be the headline number.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:29
|
|
|
HappyHippo posted:Medicaid, but yes. Cuts to Medicaid exceed the revenue lost in the tax cuts and credits. Surprised they could find that much in Medicaid to cut, tbh.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:30
|
|
|
Also it's important to notice that if the Republicans do not gut Medicaid, they don't get the savings they need to get this through reconciliation.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:32
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Surprised they could find that much in Medicaid to cut, tbh. "By 2026, Medicaid spending would be about 25 percent less than what CBO projects under current law"
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:34
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:Also it's important to notice that if the Republicans do not gut Medicaid, they don't get the savings they need to get this through reconciliation. Methinks the largest lobby in Washington might not take to kindly to seniors losing coverage/getting the shaft.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:34
|
|
|
DandyLion posted:Methinks the largest lobby in Washington might not take to kindly to seniors losing coverage/getting the shaft. That's medicare. Medicaid is poor people, medicare is old people. Old people who are not yet old enough for medicare are really shafted by the change in the maximum ratio you can charge young people vs. old people in this bill and I think it sets up future medicare cuts by depleting the trust fund but doesn't do them here.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:35
|
|
|
My mistake, so hard to keep track of who Paul Ryan is trying to (not so) secretly euthanize these days.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:36
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Surprised they could find that much in Medicaid to cut, tbh. Not that surprising when you consider the GOP doesn't care about poor, old, or disabled people whom are the only ones using Medicaid. I'm more surprised they only cut 25%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:36
|
|
|
Azhais posted:Not that surprising when you consider the GOP doesn't care about poor, old, or disabled people whom are the only ones using Medicaid. I'm more surprised they only cut 25%. The only reason it's that little is because they delayed it because many red or swing states actually expanded medicaid and they need those voters to not realize they were had until after 2020.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:37
|
|
|
Petition to change the thread subtitle to "Who knew healthcare would be this hard?"
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:37
|
|
|
Does that CBO include the fact that no Actuary with at least two brain cells would sign a statement saying their rates are appropriate with those kinds of regulations? I sure as Hell wouldn't.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:37
|
|
|
24 million people. Jesus. ISIS wishes it could kill as many Americans as this plan will.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:39
|
|
|
CBO didn't project the new Medicare HI insolvency. Scalawags! Under ACA the Medicare HI trust fund is funded up to 2028. Was hoping to see what it would be with the repeal of the ACA taxes.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:42
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/SpeakerRyan/status/841388103529058304
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:47
|
|
|
Quoting yourself as attribution of a third party is pretty ballsy. Then again that gently caress has nothing to lose (unlike 24 million people)
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 21:50
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/841390305064693762
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:00
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:That's medicare. Medicaid is poor people, medicare is old people. Old people who are not yet old enough for medicare are really shafted by the change in the maximum ratio you can charge young people vs. old people in this bill and I think it sets up future medicare cuts by depleting the trust fund but doesn't do them here. Old people are mostly also poor though. Medicare does not cover nursing home care, only Medicaid does.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:07
|
|
|
It said by 2026 the premiums will be about 10% lower than the ACA projection, but that's a terrible comparison. Because the AHCA removes the essential health benefits, the benefits covered under the two different plans will be completely different. I'm convinced the CBO did not consult anyone with a strong understanding of the health insurance industry for this report.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:08
|
|
|
24 Million is low considering that the Republican's plans are to block grant Medicaid and then with each following budget reduce the block grant amounts. 24 million Holy Christ. I'm pretty sure that'd we would be even worse off than before Obamacare. quote:In total, CBO estimated that 52 million people in the U.S. would be uninsured in 2026 if the House bill became law, completely wiping out the insurance gains that have been made under Obamacare over the last seven years. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/cbo-gop-obamacare-repeal-plan-236007 Jesus loving Christ I can't imagine what would happen if 52 million people were uninsured. This would be devastating economically, socially, etc. Hollismason fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Mar 13, 2017 |
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:08
|
|
|
Reik posted:It said by 2026 the premiums will be about 10% lower than the ACA projection, but that's a terrible comparison. Because the AHCA removes the essential health benefits, the benefits covered under the two different plans will be completely different. I think it's more that the shifts involved are so complex and massive they didn't have time to calculate them- the economic effect analysis was left out.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:13
|
|
|
I don't see hospital shareholders being happy about this, and they're a pretty loud group.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:16
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:I think it's more that the shifts involved are so complex and massive they didn't have time to calculate them- the economic effect analysis was left out. If you're doing projections about health insurance and you don't project premiums, insurer paid amounts, and member liability amounts, you have no business doing those projections.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:17
|
|
|
This is measuring cost of medical insurance? So basically a 64 year old is going to have an increase of $12,000 if they make about minimum wage?
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:18
|
|
|
Lote posted:This is measuring cost of medical insurance? Because the percent of income calculations for the subsidies didn't look at age, just income, older people right got a TON of subsidies. Essentially they absorbed the entire 3 to 1 age curve in to the subsidies. Also, in that example the Cost Sharing Subsidies make that silver plan cover 87% of expected medical costs, but the AHCA plan would only cover 65%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:20
|
|
|
It's Trump & Co. so, what's the catch?  Are they opening up CHCs for religious chicanery, too?
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:21
|
|
|
Obamacare almost directly led to a growth in the healthcare industry employment http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/07/what-is-the-effect-of-obamacare-economy-000164 If 14 million people lose their insurance we will most certainly see a rise in unemployment.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:23
|
|
|
Hollismason posted:Obamacare almost directly led to a growth in the healthcare industry employment Here it is, for whoever asked
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:23
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Surprised they could find that much in Medicaid to cut, tbh. It's because they're massively reducing federal matching rates and placing the burden on the states, along with the block grant. This is basically going to gently caress Medicaid over pretty badly because enrollment eligibility is handled at the state level.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:25
|
|
|
Accretionist posted:It's Trump & Co. so, what's the catch? I believe that is all funding they're taking away from planned parenthood.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:28
|
|
|
Lote posted:This is measuring cost of medical insurance? That's a "net premium paid", so yes. The CBO (page 34) shows a 21 year old making 26.5k has current: 5100 premium, gets 3400 credit, thus is paying 1700 for insurance. AHCA: 3900 premium, gets 2450 credit, thus is paying 1450 for insurance. The 64 year old has a 15.3k premium now with 13.6k credit, vs 19.5k premium under AHCA, with a 4900 credit.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:29
|
|
|
The Phlegmatist posted:It's because they're massively reducing federal matching rates and placing the burden on the states, along with the block grant. This is basically going to gently caress Medicaid over pretty badly because enrollment eligibility is handled at the state level. You'll have situations like Texas where the cut off is some ridiculously low income amount I think it's less than 200 dollars. It's insane.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 00:52 |
|
|
Reik posted:I'm convinced the CBO did not consult anyone with a strong understanding of the health insurance industry for this report. Uh...  ?It would make sense that premiums are lower if some of hte costliest individuals are removed from the plans, that insurers offer lower coverage plans, and a myriad of other reasons. What hsould be hammered home, besides the loss of coverage, is that the 337 billion 'savings' to the federal government will likely have to be made up by the state and local governments, which results in higher taxes, increased cuts to infratstructure, educations, etc... and higher rates on things like licensing and the DMV - the things that impact people not affected by medicare/medicaid.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2017 22:30
|
|