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Which Thread Title shall we name this new thread? This poll is closed. |
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| Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce |
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44 | 21.36% |
| ScotPol - Unclustering this gently caress |
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19 | 9.22% |
| Trainspotting 2: Independence is my heroin |
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9 | 4.37% |
| Indyref II: Boris hosed a Dead Country |
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14 | 6.80% |
| ScotPol: Wings over Bullshit |
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8 | 3.88% |
| Independence 2: Cameron Lied, UK Died |
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24 | 11.65% |
| Scotpol IV: I Vow To Flee My Country |
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14 | 6.80% |
| ScotPol - A twice in a generation thread |
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17 | 8.25% |
| ScotPol - Where Everything's hosed Up and the Referendums Don't Matter |
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15 | 7.28% |
| ScotPol Thread: Dependence Referendum Incoming |
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2 | 0.97% |
| Indyref II: The Scottish Insturgeoncy |
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10 | 4.85% |
| ScotPol Thread: Act of European Union |
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5 | 2.43% |
| ScotPol - Like Game of Thrones only we wish we would all die |
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25 | 12.14% |
| Total: | 206 votes | ||
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Looking forward being courted by Theresa May for my vote in the upcoming IndyRef. Suggested policy: if Scotland votes remain every eligible voter gets to slap a member (of their choice) of the Tory cabinet.
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Mar 15, 2017 00:35
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| # ? May 12, 2024 09:58 |
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I think if polling continues to show that Scottish opinion is against another referendum, and if there was one Scots would vote no, it won't be difficult to decline a request for another referendum until after Brexit. The SNP themselves have legitimised the use of public opinion being a deciding factor in their latest manifesto. I think Nicola may have got this one wrong.
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Mar 15, 2017 00:40
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I just can't decide who to use my slap on. Boris Johnson is an obvious choice of course, and I'm sure that would be fun. But Chris Grayling has a face custom designed for slapping. It'd be dynamic. Jeremy Hunt seems like a good candidate on paper but I feel like it'd be ultimately unsatisfying, like slapping a cool, damp flannel. Phil Hammond could be alright I guess, his face looks like it probably has some nice elasticity and you'd get a decent expression, but tbh I only really have an intellectual dislike of him, it's not so visceral. Really a tricky one, shame IDS isn't in cabinet any more.
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Mar 15, 2017 00:49
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big scary monsters posted:I just can't decide who to use my slap on. Boris Johnson is an obvious choice of course, and I'm sure that would be fun. But Chris Grayling has a face custom designed for slapping. It'd be dynamic. Jeremy Hunt seems like a good candidate on paper but I feel like it'd be ultimately unsatisfying, like slapping a cool, damp flannel. Phil Hammond could be alright I guess, his face looks like it probably has some nice elasticity and you'd get a decent expression, but tbh I only really have an intellectual dislike of him, it's not so visceral. Really a tricky one, shame IDS isn't in cabinet any more.
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Mar 15, 2017 00:50
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Rounding out the polling for the night we have: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/841799493259538436 So a swing to Independence in the SSAS, a swing to no in Yougov and no change in Survation. Back to the good old days of polling
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Mar 15, 2017 00:56
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jBrereton posted:No love/hate for Rees-Mogg? Not in Cabinet, and anyway I don't think he's on the same level as the others. I mean his views are awful and he's a Tory MP, but I don't think he's a really terrible person so much as an idiot.
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Mar 15, 2017 00:58
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Leggsy posted:Back to the good old days of polling Polling for 2014 was accurate and these polls all agree that independence continues to be a minority preference.
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Mar 15, 2017 01:09
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big scary monsters posted:I just can't decide who to use my slap on. Boris Johnson is an obvious choice of course, and I'm sure that would be fun. But Chris Grayling has a face custom designed for slapping. It'd be dynamic. Jeremy Hunt seems like a good candidate on paper but I feel like it'd be ultimately unsatisfying, like slapping a cool, damp flannel. Phil Hammond could be alright I guess, his face looks like it probably has some nice elasticity and you'd get a decent expression, but tbh I only really have an intellectual dislike of him, it's not so visceral. Really a tricky one, shame IDS isn't in cabinet any more.
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Mar 15, 2017 01:15
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Pissflaps posted:Polling for 2014 was accurate and these polls all agree that independence continues to be a minority preference. They did converge in the end but on the actual road to the referendum we got some widely divergent figures, which is what I was highlighting in my post. EDIT: FWIW Curtice averaged the polls out to 47% and that's about where I feel support for independence is now. Leggsy fucked around with this message at 01:24 on Mar 15, 2017 |
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Mar 15, 2017 01:17
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Pissflaps posted:I think if polling continues to show that Scottish opinion is against another referendum, and if there was one Scots would vote no, it won't be difficult to decline a request for another referendum until after Brexit. The SNP themselves have legitimised the use of public opinion being a deciding factor in their latest manifesto. I for one am shocked that you think calling for independence is a bad idea, Mr British Nationalist
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Mar 15, 2017 01:19
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forkboy84 posted:I for one am shocked that you think calling for independence is a bad idea, Mr British Nationalist Of course it's a bad idea, most people know this.
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Mar 15, 2017 01:30
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Those 'The snp wants to leave the uk over eu membership but not actually join the eu' rumours are becoming louder https://twitter.com/simon_telegraph/status/841912584731283456 Tbh, if true, it seems they haven't learnt the lessons of the last referendum. They're going to try to promise everything to everyone.
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Mar 15, 2017 09:50
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Pissflaps posted:I think if polling continues to show that Scottish opinion is against another referendum, and if there was one Scots would vote no, it won't be difficult to decline a request for another referendum until after Brexit. The SNP themselves have legitimised the use of public opinion being a deciding factor in their latest manifesto. The No lead in November 2013, when the referendum was officially called, was considerably higher than it was by September 2015. If this is their starting point they're in much better shape than last time.
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Mar 15, 2017 10:16
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oops, this was supposed to be in the UKMT
LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Mar 15, 2017 |
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Mar 15, 2017 10:33
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Lord of the Llamas posted:The No lead in November 2013, when the referendum was officially called, was considerably higher than it was by September 2015. If this is their starting point they're in much better shape than last time. This doesn't appear to address any point I made in my post that you quoted. Yes, 'yes' polls higher than it did in 2013, but it's polling no higher than in 2014 - and crucially, its polling as a minority preference.
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Mar 15, 2017 10:37
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Pissflaps posted:This doesn't appear to address any point I made in my post that you quoted. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/841929311540125696
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Mar 15, 2017 10:54
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I'm still not sure what points you're addressing but that certainly is a data point that shows a minority of people want the uk government to agree to a second referendum.
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Mar 15, 2017 10:58
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Pissflaps posted:I'm still not sure what points you're addressing but that certainly is a data point that shows a minority of people want the uk government to agree to a second referendum. It also shows that it's a minority preference for the UK government to not agree to a second referendum 
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Mar 15, 2017 11:10
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I have to say that as someone who voted No last time but is very much thinking about switching to Yes I think a solid commitment to join the EU is a requirement. I just don't think trying to peddle the soft line to appease the Yes/Leavers is ultimately going to work. I also think before April 2019 is a mistake as well because we'll have no idea at all about what sort of shape Brexit is going to take which will cast doubt on any promises or predictions made.
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Mar 15, 2017 11:13
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Lord of the Llamas posted:It also shows that it's a minority preference for the UK government to not agree to a second referendum Ok...so what?
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Mar 15, 2017 11:14
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Aramoro posted:I have to say that as someone who voted No last time but is very much thinking about switching to Yes I think a solid commitment to join the EU is a requirement. I just don't think trying to peddle the soft line to appease the Yes/Leavers is ultimately going to work. I'd think that's a pretty safe bet, Sturgeon's whole justification for calling a second referendum is the UK leaving the EU and Scotland voting to stay in it. She's been banging the drum of 'Scotland in Europe' pretty hard, it would be very odd for her not to commit to EU membership. I have to admit I find the timing a little strange too though.
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Mar 15, 2017 11:21
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Pissflaps posted:Ok...so what? You said polling shows that opinion is against having another referendum. It isn't. It shows it's close and/or inconclusive. What we do know is that the SNP fought the 2016 Holyrood election with a manifesto commitment to seek another referendum if there was a material change in circumstances. Which a looming hard Brexit obviously is. Regardless of the polling figures (which is a factor, but not the only factor in weighing up a possible referendum) the SNP would be breaking a manifesto pledge if they didn't seek a second referendum in these circumstances. I know manifesto pledges are so passé but you can't really argue against the SNP doing something they promised to do and that the outcome of a second referendum is a far from a forgone conclusion either way. big scary monsters posted:I'd think that's a pretty safe bet, Sturgeon's whole justification for calling a second referendum is the UK leaving the EU and Scotland voting to stay in it. She's been banging the drum of 'Scotland in Europe' pretty hard, it would be very odd for her not to commit to EU membership. EFTA would be a perfectly fine transitional arrangement that maintains most of the benefits of being in the EU (more than this Tory Brexit is going to get us) and avoids some thorny issues like joining the Euro.
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Mar 15, 2017 11:30
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Aramoro posted:I have to say that as someone who voted No last time but is very much thinking about switching to Yes I think a solid commitment to join the EU is a requirement. I just don't think trying to peddle the soft line to appease the Yes/Leavers is ultimately going to work. I agree. Appealing to the Jim Sillars of the world is an exercise in futility because there is so few of them. Scotland out of both the Union & the EU would not exactly be hosed, but i'd not be in a great place and there would have to be a lot of belt tightening. And honestly, the arguments for joining the EFTA seem really dumb. It's like being in the EU but without having a say in the rules that you have to abide by. There needs to be a solid commitment that membership of the EU will be an immediate short-term aim for an independent Scotland.
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Mar 15, 2017 12:06
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Pissflaps posted:Those 'The snp wants to leave the uk over eu membership but not actually join the eu' rumours are becoming louder All this rumour seems to be coming from the right-wing commentariat so I'm not 100% sold on it being the actual SNP policy. However, EFTA is definitely an option we should be looking at at least in the short-term, as the accession (for lack of a better word) criteria are far more accommodating and might get Scotland in the single-market faster than applying for full EU membership. EFTA would also allow Scotland to pursue a separate trade policy with the UK. Which would nullify concerns about Scottish trade being affected by a bad Brexit deal. It would be a bit of a hard sell to die-hard Remainers if the SNP did opt for EFTA. But I imagine if they did so, the calculation is they would pick up more soft "leave" voters than lose hard Remain voters, especially if they promise a referendum on EU accession down the line.
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Mar 15, 2017 12:10
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forkboy84 posted:Appealing to the Jim Sillars of the world is an exercise in futility because there is so few of them. http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/09/how-brexit-has-and-has-not-made-a-difference/ quote:First of all, we should note that it confirms a key but perhaps underappreciated finding of a number of polls on how people voted in the EU referendum: that a substantial minority of those who favour independence voted to Leave the EU. Panelbase report that 38% of 2014 Yes voters who voted in the EU referendum backed leaving the EU, little different from the 41% of No voters who opted to do so. Far from being united in their determination to keep Scotland in the EU, supporters of independence are divided on the subject, much like almost every other political party and movement in the UK. ... and a third of those who currently say they'd vote Yes: http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/03/the-legacy-of-indyref1-new-scottish-social-attitudes-report/ quote:According to the latest SSA survey, one in three (33%) of those who say they would now vote Yes to independence report that they voted last June to Leave. There is thus a risk that a referendum campaign that tied independence to being a fully paid up member of the EU could cost Yes the backing of some of these supporters.
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Mar 15, 2017 12:12
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LemonDrizzle posted:You're right, they only accounted for around 40% of the Yes vote last time... There's going to be tons of churn between the two camps; my French partner is totally sold on independence after Brexit and I'm on the fence, both having been absolutely safe No votes in the last referendum.
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Mar 15, 2017 12:43
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Papers are saying May won't allow a referendum before 2021, presumably to ensure she can destroy the entire NHS and not leave Scotland with its own piece. Requesting thread title change to Mad Macs 2: The 'Rood Warriors
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Mar 15, 2017 12:52
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Mar 15, 2017 13:16
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Lord of the Llamas posted:You said polling shows that opinion is against having another referendum. It isn't. It shows it's close and/or inconclusive. What we do know is that the SNP fought the 2016 Holyrood election with a manifesto commitment to seek another referendum if there was a material change in circumstances. Which a looming hard Brexit obviously is. Regardless of the polling figures (which is a factor, but not the only factor in weighing up a possible referendum) the SNP would be breaking a manifesto pledge if they didn't seek a second referendum in these circumstances. I know manifesto pledges are so passé but you can't really argue against the SNP doing something they promised to do and that the outcome of a second referendum is a far from a forgone conclusion either way. That's OK because I'm not arguing against the SNP attempting to secure another referendum - their manifesto made it open ended enough that they could have done so Brexit or no Brexit. What I did say was that in the absence of evidence of majority demand for a referendum, let alone evidence that any such referendum would produce a Yes result, it will not be politically difficult for May to defer any referendum until after the UK has left the EU. I've also said that Sturgeon may have made a mistake in calling for a referendum at this time. Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Mar 15, 2017 |
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Mar 15, 2017 13:31
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The EFTA thing is surely a joke? SNP are pissed the UK left the EU....and decide to have an indy referendum because of this change.....but don't necessarily want back into the EU? Undermines the whole rationale of re-running the referendum! If the EFTA thing is true, basically just a "gently caress the negotiation, we want out regardless" hissy fit.
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Mar 15, 2017 13:50
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Arkane posted:If the EFTA thing is true, basically just a "gently caress the negotiation, we want out regardless" hissy fit. That's snp.txt. The EFTA thing is not confirmed yet though if you read this from an SNP MSP https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/joan-mcalpine-westminster-not-work-10028258.amp you can see how the focus is being shifted away from it being about eu membership and towards it being the classic grievances about democracy. Expect the nationalist crowd to decide the EU is a bad thing after all within a couple of weeks. Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Mar 15, 2017 |
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Mar 15, 2017 13:51
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Pissflaps posted:That's OK because I'm not arguing against the SNP attempting to secure another referendum - their manifesto made it open ended enough that they could have done so Brexit or no Brexit. So you're just going to ignore the poll that showed a plurality wanting a referendum and the fact that it means May will have to veto something voted through the Scottish parliament. Well if you say so. As Brexit gets more chaotic Holyrood will just keep voting a referendum request through until May cracks.
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Mar 15, 2017 13:52
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Arkane posted:The EFTA thing is surely a joke? 1) Scottish voters who wanted to Leave may feel better about leaving for EFTA not the EU (madness but whatever) 2) It will diminish the "gently caress off there's no way you're getting into the EU" cry from Westminster 3) SNP voters who want to be In Europe will see it as more positive than the apparent trajectory the British government has in mind but more ~realistic~ than going straight into the EU
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Mar 15, 2017 13:53
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jBrereton posted:If and it's a big if the EFTA thing is true, it has a number of purposes, right: These people are idiots who need to be told why this is a bad idea rather than played to. Not convinced it'll actually happen anyway.
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Mar 15, 2017 14:01
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Lord of the Llamas posted:So you're just going to ignore the poll that showed a plurality wanting a referendum and the fact that it means May will have to veto something voted through the Scottish parliament. I'm not going to ignore it, but I am going to take it for what it is: a poll showing that only a minority of people in Scotland want another referendum, however the question is posed. If you read up on the process you'll understand there is no 'veto' for May to exercise. Constitutional affairs are a reserved matter: Holyrood is debating it next week, but no legislation will result enabling a referendum until Westminster itself legislates to give Holyrood the power over a matter normally outside its competency.
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Mar 15, 2017 14:13
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Pissflaps posted:I'm not going to ignore it, but I am going to take it for what it is: a poll showing that only a minority of people in Scotland want another referendum, however the question is posed. Having the constitutional right to reject something is literally what a veto is.
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Mar 15, 2017 14:26
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The question hasn't been settled, which Pissflaps would know had he actually "read up" on the process. http://www.scottishconstitutionalfu...ho-Decides.aspx
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Mar 15, 2017 14:29
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Having the constitutional right to reject something is literally what a veto is. A veto implies that in the there is an opportunity to reject something that otherwise will be passed without action. The SNP won't pass legislation for a referendum, then dare Theresa May to reject it. Well, they could, but then they'd be Catalonia and end up in court. Alertrelic posted:The question hasn't been settled, which Pissflaps would know had he actually "read up" on the process. This is a question that nobody is asking. I said the process has been settled: given its what happened for 2014, and the same process Sturgeon is attempting to follow now, I don't see any challenge to that. Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Mar 15, 2017 |
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Mar 15, 2017 14:31
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Pissflaps posted:A veto implies that in the there is an opportunity to reject something that otherwise will be passed without action. What a confusing mess of a post. So, in you esteemed opinion, can Holyrood pass legislation to have a referendum or not? ^^^ loving hell did you even read the link?
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Mar 15, 2017 14:35
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Lord of the Llamas posted:What a confusing mess of a post. I'm struggling to work out which part is confusing you. An attempt by Holyrood to pass legislation on a reserved matter without the consent of Westminster would amount to UDI.
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Mar 15, 2017 14:37
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