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Which Thread Title shall we name this new thread? This poll is closed. |
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| Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce |
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44 | 21.36% |
| ScotPol - Unclustering this gently caress |
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19 | 9.22% |
| Trainspotting 2: Independence is my heroin |
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9 | 4.37% |
| Indyref II: Boris hosed a Dead Country |
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14 | 6.80% |
| ScotPol: Wings over Bullshit |
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8 | 3.88% |
| Independence 2: Cameron Lied, UK Died |
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24 | 11.65% |
| Scotpol IV: I Vow To Flee My Country |
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14 | 6.80% |
| ScotPol - A twice in a generation thread |
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17 | 8.25% |
| ScotPol - Where Everything's hosed Up and the Referendums Don't Matter |
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15 | 7.28% |
| ScotPol Thread: Dependence Referendum Incoming |
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2 | 0.97% |
| Indyref II: The Scottish Insturgeoncy |
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10 | 4.85% |
| ScotPol Thread: Act of European Union |
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5 | 2.43% |
| ScotPol - Like Game of Thrones only we wish we would all die |
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25 | 12.14% |
| Total: | 206 votes | ||
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forkboy84 posted:Hopefully the SNP test her on this. If she bends, great. If not, hey, I'm sure that'll convince a few waverers to lean towards the independence side, with the Scottish Parliament being overruled by Westminster etc etc. Easy narrative to spin In terms of winning, I'm not certain now was the right time to be gearing up. I think this allows an easy narrative of "Being told what to do by Westminster" which will gain waverers, whilst allowing Sturgeon to ensure that the next time she asks, she's set to go. It might, just maybe, get a couple concessions from May about Brexit too.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:03
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forkboy84 posted:Hopefully the SNP test her on this. If she bends, great. If not, hey, I'm sure that'll convince a few waverers to lean towards the independence side, with the Scottish Parliament being overruled by Westminster etc etc. Easy narrative to spin Potentially, but if May is sensible then she briefs about accepting the Scottish peoples right to choose once all the facts are on the table and the importance of not rushing, stressing that this isn't about refusing but about timing. Most of the media will probably run with that as a story making May look balanced and reasonable. The fact it contradicts her Brexit stance will be brushed under the carpet again.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:14
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forkboy84 posted:Hopefully the SNP test her on this. If she bends, great. If not, hey, I'm sure that'll convince a few waverers to lean towards the independence side, with the Scottish Parliament being overruled by Westminster etc etc. Easy narrative to spin It's also a really, really well worn narrative. I'm not sure how much impact another 'Westminster grievance' will have.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:21
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Tiran Dirth posted:Potentially, but if May is sensible Ah, I see the problem here. Pissflaps posted:It's also a really, really well worn narrative. I'm not sure how much impact another 'Westminster grievance' will have. Grievance politics never go out of style.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:37
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May's gambling the house on Brexit being a success, it seems.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:56
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Given the dire predictions for the outcome of Brexit what constitutes a 'success' is quite a low bar. The gamble is more that Brexit isn't as deleterious as many expect.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:59
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Leggsy posted:May's gambling the house on Brexit being a success, it seems. Whose?
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Mar 16, 2017 18:12
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Pissflaps posted:Given the dire predictions for the outcome of Brexit what constitutes a 'success' is quite a low bar. The gamble is more that Brexit isn't as deleterious as many expect. It will be called a success regardless and lots of people will believe it to be so regardless. Path of least resistance.
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Mar 16, 2017 18:59
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https://twitter.com/mrdissent/status/842411474429566976 Another day of fun! Apparently the Scottish Tories pushed for Theresa May to take the hard line on this, on the basis of focus-grouping which suggested 'now is not the time' was a successful meme for them. Ruth Davidson had previously articulated the view that Westminster should not block an independence referendum requested by the Scottish Parliament. Are they hedging their bets on the simple majority which polling suggests doesn't want another referendum soon? Many pro-independence supporters would agree due to the lack of consistent pro-Yes polling, but that doesn't mean they would support Westminster blocking a new vote, even less that they would vote against independence. The SNP position that they would be willing to accept a compromise deal on Europe rather than call for another independence vote has been consistent since the EU vote last year but is now being reported as a 'climbdown'. Pro-indpendence dissent over the issue of EU / EFTA membership is also being played up in the press but I'd expect the consensus to be 'get the hoose noo, argue about the wallpaper later' when it comes down to it (Jim Sillars notwithstanding; apparently his defection was a 'major blow' to the independence project despite the fact he only has one vote in any future referendum). People have asked about the rationale for the timing. It's based on the UK government's own timescale and position statements from the EU. The idea is to have a vote when the debate is finished but before the machinery goes into motion, potentially making it more difficult or impossible for Scotland to join the EU / EFTA. It's quite the spectacle: each side is pretending to be the most reasonable whilst simultaneously facing each other down in what looks sure to be the first real constitutional crisis of the devolution era. https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/842415773075283968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Judging from the responses so far it's the Nationalists who are where they want to be today, immediately ahead of their conference, and with the Parliament sure to back them next week. O and the 'Article 50 bill' got Royal assent today, was apparently a thing. E: changed 'independence' to 'another independence vote' for clarity. Juliet Whisky fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Mar 16, 2017 |
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Mar 16, 2017 19:26
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Juliet Whisky posted:The SNP position that they would be willing to accept a compromise deal on Europe rather than call for independence has been consistent since the EU vote last year but is now being reported as a 'climbdown'. For Scotland in the uk? Sure. For an independent Scotland? No way. That's new.
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Mar 16, 2017 19:54
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Pissflaps posted:For Scotland in the uk? Sure. For an independent Scotland? No way. That's new. Yes that was not deliberate, changed it, cheers for pointing it out.
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Mar 16, 2017 20:13
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https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842372721522675712
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Mar 16, 2017 21:18
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mehall posted:In terms of winning, I'm not certain now was the right time to be gearing up. That was my initial feeling too, but I think actually it's good to get it out there. That Sturgeon was going to call for another referendum sooner or later due to Brexit was obvious, and getting it in now, as well as trying to hold it before the UK leaves the EU, means that the government has to actually talk about what Scotland's place in a post-Brexit UK would look like. It also means that the choice is between two different flavours of radical change - there is no status quo vote this time around. I'm sure that May would much rather have continued ignoring the other three countries that make up the UK and just focusing on English issues, but that's not going to work if she has to fight an IndyRef at the same time as doing Brexit negotiations. If Scotland remains in the UK then we won't have been forgotten in the negotiations, and if it leaves then it'll be doing so with eyes open. As opposed to post-Brexit when the pressure is off and May can just say "everything will be great, stick with the status quo".
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Mar 16, 2017 21:30
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Sturgeon has played a blinder so far but I thought today's line about sealing the UK's fate was a poor one. It's hardly in line with their democratic stance to date. Sounded very one party state. People don't like things being presented as a done deal.
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Mar 16, 2017 22:03
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Zalakwe posted:Sturgeon has played a blinder so far but I thought today's line about sealing the UK's fate was a poor one. on the other hand, they do. it shows clear leadership in these rocky times. but yeah. so far Sturgeon has done well, if nothing else the prospect of another Scottish indy ref will keep the tories mindful that they need to get a decent deal for Scotland as well during the negotiations, which may well work out better for the rest of the UK as well.
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Mar 16, 2017 23:12
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JFairfax posted:but yeah. so far Sturgeon has done well, if nothing else the prospect of another Scottish indy ref will keep the tories mindful that they need to get a decent deal for Scotland as well during the negotiations, which may well work out better for the rest of the UK as well. Expecting the Tories to be mindful of other countries or anyone that would be hindered by their incompetence is a very amusing thought. Because that would mean that they would give at least a tiny amount of poo poo in what they have been doing. So any deal with the EU with Scotland won't happen.
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Mar 16, 2017 23:45
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If the Tories are sensible then they will at least find a few scraps of meaningless but nice-sounding concessions on their brexit plans so that they have something to point at and repeat endlessly in interviews so that it sounds like they give a poo poo, but then if they were sensible they probably wouldn't be pursuing Hard Murderdeath Obliteration Brexit from a result of 52/48
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Mar 16, 2017 23:55
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Zalakwe posted:Sturgeon has played a blinder so far but I thought today's line about sealing the UK's fate was a poor one. I don't think Sturgeon has played a blinder. I think she's had to ask for a referendum, and I think May has had to say no. Extreme0 posted:So any deal with the EU with Scotland won't happen. There has never been the slighest possibility of a unique EU deal with Scotland different to the rest of the UK while Scotland is a part of the UK. It's an utter fantasy.
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Mar 16, 2017 23:59
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Pissflaps posted:There has never been the slighest possibility of a unique EU deal with Scotland different to the rest of the UK while Scotland is a part of the UK. It's an utter fantasy. Naturally.
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Mar 17, 2017 00:03
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Pissflaps posted:I don't think Sturgeon has played a blinder. Gosh, there's a shocker.
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Mar 17, 2017 00:27
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Pissflaps posted:I don't think Sturgeon has played a blinder. I think she's had to ask for a referendum, and I think May has had to say no. Are you suggesting that May vetoed the referendum?
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Mar 17, 2017 00:35
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Are you suggesting that May vetoed the referendum? No.
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Mar 17, 2017 00:40
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Are you suggesting that May vetoed the referendum? Lol
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Mar 17, 2017 08:45
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Pissflaps posted:I don't think Sturgeon has played a blinder. I think she's had to ask for a referendum, and I think May has had to say no. In the other thread you have argued consistently that opposition parties should using their soft influencing power more. I completely agree. I also don't think you will find many better examples of a party doing so than the SNP over the last few days. They have no actual power to do anything on this issue, yet the media narrative for days has been "Sturgeon has UKGov on the run" to the point it bounced the Telegraph into an awful attack piece that even they had to pull the headline of. They've even managed to get coverage on the tax issue where Labour failed to land a blow. Time will tell what the long term implications of the last few days are but they get nothing more than what they're got they will have done well with nothing.
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Mar 17, 2017 08:58
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Zalakwe posted:In the other thread you have argued consistently that opposition parties should using their soft influencing power more. I completely agree. I agree with this, even though, as the guardian pointed out, the SNP basically couldn't lose with this announcement, at least in the short term: either they get the thing they (ostensibly) want, or may/the Tories compound their image as stubborn arseholes determined to drag everyone kicking and screaming into a hard brexit. One thing that's also come out, and which helps bolster the independence argument, is that the Tories, even the Scottish ones, seem to have no idea how holyrood differs from Westminster (or at least pretend to): they keep mentioning how the snp's minority government means there's no mandate for a referendum, straight up ignoring that there's more than one pro Indy party. I can see why their doing it, to try and make this all about the SNP, but it's flat out wrong, and helps add to the image that the Tories simply don't know or don't care about anything beyond their own narrow horizons.
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Mar 17, 2017 09:37
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Zalakwe posted:In the other thread you have argued consistently that opposition parties should using their soft influencing power more. I completely agree. You won't find me describing the SNP as anything other than a very well run, well lead and disciplined party. But I do think that on this Sturgeon's actions have been dictated by events - there was always going to be another demand for a referendum after the vote last year, and with the calls for one sooner rather than later growing louder and the SNP conference imminent, I'm not sure how much choice she had. Maybe I'm wrong and this fresh democratic outrage will drive people to seek independence but with the majority of Scots not wanting a referendum within the next two years, if at all, Sturgeon is starting to look a bit tantrummy and I'm not sure it'll do anything other than reinforce existing opinions.
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Mar 17, 2017 09:45
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Niric posted:One thing that's also come out, and which helps bolster the independence argument, is that the Tories, even the Scottish ones, seem to have no idea how holyrood differs from Westminster (or at least pretend to): they keep mentioning how the snp's minority government means there's no mandate for a referendum, straight up ignoring that there's more than one pro Indy party. I can see why their doing it, to try and make this all about the SNP, but it's flat out wrong, and helps add to the image that the Tories simply don't know or don't care about anything beyond their own narrow horizons. They are on new ground as Holyrood opposition, and May has a reputation for being very controlling. They might be about to have a recurrence of Labour's branch office problem. For example why deploy David Mundell so much over the last few days when Ruth Davidson must be infinitely more popular? Maybe they are trying to protect her but I doubt it.
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Mar 17, 2017 09:47
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I'm officially moving back to Edinburgh in 4 weeks time 
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Mar 17, 2017 10:11
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Lord of the Llamas posted:I'm officially moving back to Edinburgh in 4 weeks time Why would you move to England?
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Mar 17, 2017 10:31
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https://www.ft.com/content/e248b414-0a37-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43quote:Scotland could abandon currency union with UK, says Alex Salmond better late than never I suppose
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Mar 17, 2017 10:59
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That goes without saying though - leaving the UK means 'abandoning a currency union'. It was only nationalists who insisted that there would be a currency union following independence.
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Mar 17, 2017 11:01
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Pissflaps posted:Maybe I'm wrong and this fresh democratic outrage will drive people to seek independence but with the majority of Scots not wanting a referendum within the next two years, if at all, Sturgeon is starting to look a bit tantrummy and I'm not sure it'll do anything other than reinforce existing opinions. Whether bounced or not though she has done well. Re. long term impact I'm not sure either. Personally I was dead against independence last time but I'm not sure how I'd vote given the chance this time. The thought of Scotland being tied to Brexit, this Tory Government and the depth of xenophobia in the electorate that voted for it (although arguably that attitude is not their fault, they are still responsible for their actions) has me wavering. My Facebook wall suggests a lot of my other friends don't agree however, and they were in Scotland when the last vote was held while I was not. The counterpoint is that if Scotland were to become independent the short term economic shock would mean that people die. I am usually a big fan for voting for what is put in front of me, not what might happen, however this time there are simply too many unknowns to do that. The long term performance of Scotland vs. the UK is almost impossible to predict. There is one (almost) golden rule, when you ask people to vote twice in a short space of time you tend to get the same answer back with interest. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 12:01 on Mar 17, 2017 |
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Mar 17, 2017 11:57
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Zalakwe posted:There is one (almost) golden rule, when you ask people to vote twice in a short space of time you tend to get the same answer back with interest.
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Mar 17, 2017 12:15
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jBrereton posted:Since the last vote was a 15 point collapse in the Remain camp relative to the start of the campaign we'll have to see what that implies for this one. The point is that has happened now and it wasn't enough, how can you re-motivate those people and change even more minds this time? There is lots to be cheerful about in the independence camp at the moment however if that's your bent you shouldn't lose sight of the fact a second referendum will be a huge challenge. Change vs Status Quo and people have had a lot of change recently.
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Mar 17, 2017 12:25
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e: nevermind
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Mar 17, 2017 12:27
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To be fair that is the nationalist's central argument: the status quo has gone so it's a choice of two new alternatives. Which is why they need the referendum sooner rather than later, before a new status quo is established.
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Mar 17, 2017 12:29
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Lord of the Llamas posted:I'm officially moving back to Edinburgh in 4 weeks time I've been here a couple years now and still love it, having been a country bumpkin all my life. Sometimes I worry about Glaswegians and their inferiority complex.
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Mar 17, 2017 12:29
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Zalakwe posted:Change vs Status Quo and people have had a lot of change recently. big scary monsters posted:the choice is between two different flavours of radical change - there is no status quo vote this time around.
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Mar 17, 2017 12:43
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Lord of the Llamas posted:I'm officially moving back to Edinburgh in 4 weeks time Time for a goonmeet again?
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Mar 17, 2017 13:07
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bitterandtwisted posted:I've been here a couple years now and still love it, having been a country bumpkin all my life. Sometimes I worry about Glaswegians and their inferiority complex. I've lived in Glasgow for more than a decade and I still worry about Glaswegians' complexes. I wouldn't say it's inferiority though, that implies a level of self reflection and self criticism which I've yet to come across...
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Mar 17, 2017 13:09
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