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BarbarianElephant
Feb 12, 2015
The fairy of forgiveness has removed your red text.

Craig K posted:

My GOD my representative accidentally voting correctly for a bill for a change!

Try phoning him and telling him how happy you are about that. It seems to have an effect.

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Craig K
Nov 10, 2016

puck

BarbarianElephant posted:

Try phoning him and telling him how happy you are about that. It seems to have an effect.

he's getting Lots of Calls so i got the voice mail and left a message.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Craig K posted:

My GOD my representative accidentally voting correctly for a bill for a change!

e: what's Wal-Mart's opinion on this travesty that's how you can tell how he'll vote in the long run

I think he wants to run for president, and that means not getting dragged down by this osboros of terrible ideas.

BarbarianElephant
Feb 12, 2015
The fairy of forgiveness has removed your red text.

Craig K posted:

he's getting Lots of Calls so i got the voice mail and left a message.

Yeah, I never heard of anyone actually getting through. But filling up voicemail boxes seems to get registered somehow.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

trump is our closer, you guys

quote:

But NBC News reports that House Republicans are moving away from the bill:

Yesterday morning, we wrote that 17 House Republicans opposed or leaned strongly against the GOP health-care plan that’s scheduled for a vote Thursday. Then President Trump visited Capitol Hill and appeared to threaten GOP lawmakers …

After that visit, the number of Republicans opposing or leaning strongly against the legislation grew to 27, per NBC News’ count — when Trump and GOP leaders can’t afford more than 21 defections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...m=.b2ccced22af1

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe
Politico's sticking a :fork: in the bill:

Current vote count: Obamacare repeal would fail

House Obamacare repeal DOA in the Senate

Rhesus Pieces
Jun 27, 2005


What a loser! Can't close the deal! Sad!

Cant wait to see his reaction.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002


One thing that's not getting mentioned much is that some moderates are on board, but most are just in hiding and avoiding saying yea or nay. The freedom caucus is loudly saying they're opposed but the moderates aren't all on board, and will be very likely to flee if they think the bill is going down.

As always, when referring to Republicans in the house, "moderates" is a relative term with the air quotes around it.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Rhesus Pieces posted:

What a loser! Can't close the deal! Sad!

Cant wait to see his reaction.

man, let me tell you what a loser that paul ryan is. didn't support me. sad!

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
I hope they put it up for a vote and then it fails. I want to see Paul Ryan fall face first into a pile of dog poo poo.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Craig K posted:

he's getting Lots of Calls so i got the voice mail and left a message.

I've also been using Resistbot to send faxes. It automatically figures out your representative when you give it your street address.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

this will go well

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844594031892086784

Selachian
Oct 9, 2012

HappyHippo posted:

I hope they put it up for a vote and then it fails. I want to see Paul Ryan fall face first into a pile of dog poo poo.

I'm not going to believe it until the vote is actually concluded. I fully expect Ryan to pull a Tom DeLay and keep the vote open until like 5 in the morning while he tries to get the votes he needs.

The Phlegmatist
Nov 24, 2003

evilweasel posted:

man, let me tell you what a loser that paul ryan is. didn't support me. sad!

Watching Trump and Ryan repeatedly try to tie the other to the AHCA has been great. I imagine they'd try to coup Ryan if anyone else wanted to be Speaker but that job is pretty much a political suicide booth right now.

The MUMPSorceress
Jan 6, 2012


^SHTPSTS

Gary’s Answer

The Phlegmatist posted:

I imagine they'd try to coup Ryan if anyone else wanted to be Speaker but that job is pretty much a political suicide booth right now.

This is the only comfort I have about that gently caress being from my state. He is now doomed to go down in a Boehner-esque fireball. It's only a matter of when.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
Thinking it over, even if they don't have the votes they kinda have to hold the vote anyway, as embarrassing as it it, so that they can at least say they tried to do something. Can you imagine how the base would react if they never even held a vote? I think a good portion of them (between the moderates and the hard right) want to be able to say they voted for it going into the next election.

BirdOfPlay
Feb 19, 2012

THUNDERDOME LOSER

TyrantWD posted:

I think in the long run, its best for the Democrats, and the country, that the bill passes, people hate it, and then it gives the Democrats room to campaign on replacing Trumpcare with Medicare for all. The GOP are full of poo poo, but they are on the mark when they say Obamacare is collapsing. My brother's premiums (late 20s with no pre-existing conditions), with the maximum subsidy, are up to almost 350/month. Two more years of increases, and he is dropping out - as I imagine millions of others will. Let the Republicans own a healthcare disaster, use it to win back power, and then implement a real solution.

Why do people think this? My understanding of the bill is that the big, hurtful changes come in 2020 or just after, so no one will actually feel the pain until after the election.

Rhesus Pieces
Jun 27, 2005

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/844597772074536960

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in that room.

E:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/844602678965665792

- Risk single payer

:unsmigghh:

Rhesus Pieces fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Mar 22, 2017

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

The Phlegmatist posted:

Watching Trump and Ryan repeatedly try to tie the other to the AHCA has been great. I imagine they'd try to coup Ryan if anyone else wanted to be Speaker but that job is pretty much a political suicide booth right now.

Yeah there's literally no one else who can get 218 votes in the House to be speaker.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

HappyHippo posted:

Thinking it over, even if they don't have the votes they kinda have to hold the vote anyway, as embarrassing as it it, so that they can at least say they tried to do something. Can you imagine how the base would react if they never even held a vote? I think a good portion of them (between the moderates and the hard right) want to be able to say they voted for it going into the next election.

I agree. If Ryan doesn't have the votes tomorrow, he's not getting them. His only option at that point is to put the "nos" on record and hope they either absorb the blame, or the pressure forces them to change their mind and he brings it up again (though it is not clear to me he can, I'm not an expert on this procedure stuff. well, less "not an expert" and more "barely any knowledge").

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

The idolization of the free market as the answer to everything is so baffling to me. It's like you paid attention maybe for one month in high school economics and then never ever took in any other information about how markets work and their deficiencies and you actively reject anything that may refute your limited scope of knowledge.

Sir Kodiak
May 14, 2007


No Safe Word posted:

The idolization of the free market as the answer to everything is so baffling to me.

Establishing and expanding markets shifts power towards people with money, whether you're talking about healthcare in the United States or the spread of capitalism across the globe. This is appealing to people who have a lot of money.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

evilweasel posted:

I agree. If Ryan doesn't have the votes tomorrow, he's not getting them. His only option at that point is to put the "nos" on record and hope they either absorb the blame, or the pressure forces them to change their mind and he brings it up again (though it is not clear to me he can, I'm not an expert on this procedure stuff. well, less "not an expert" and more "barely any knowledge").

he can also leave the "vote" open for a ridiculously long time and attempt to wheel and deal on the house floor. i believe delay did this during the bush administration during a controversial vote and the vote wrapped up at 5 a.m. the next day. ideally president trump would be on hand to pressure lawmakers during this but since this would involve trump working more then his usual 6 hour work day it'll all be the house GOP leadership.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Inverted Offensive Battle: Acupuncture Attacks Convert To 3D Penetration Tactics Taking Advantage of Deep Battle Opportunities
I listened to Vox's "The Weeds" podcast for the first time yesterday (against my better judgment). You know it's bad news when Matt Yglesias is ranting about how incredibly stupid the Republicans have been in making GBS threads out this bill. Like, I've never heard him be this direct before. I'll enjoy it while it lasts, before he returns to his normal state.

HappyHippo posted:

I hope they put it up for a vote and then it fails. I want to see Paul Ryan fall face first into a pile of dog poo poo.

I fully expect the rest of his speakership to be a...what was the medical phrase again? "Persistent vegetative state"?:laugh:

Majorian fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Mar 22, 2017

Confounding Factor
Jul 4, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
https://mobile.twitter.com/Alyssafarah/status/844600543519686660

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

No Safe Word posted:

The idolization of the free market as the answer to everything is so baffling to me. It's like you paid attention maybe for one month in high school economics and then never ever took in any other information about how markets work and their deficiencies and you actively reject anything that may refute your limited scope of knowledge.

Most Americans haven't even taken a month of high school economics.

ozmunkeh
Feb 28, 2008

hey guys what is happening in this thread

"Truly Needy"

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Zikan posted:

he can also leave the "vote" open for a ridiculously long time and attempt to wheel and deal on the house floor. i believe delay did this during the bush administration during a controversial vote and the vote wrapped up at 5 a.m. the next day. ideally president trump would be on hand to pressure lawmakers during this but since this would involve trump working more then his usual 6 hour work day it'll all be the house GOP leadership.

I wouldn't be surprised if he tries, but I don't expect it. They're twisting every arm they can right now, if it's not twisted by tomorrow afternoon it's probably not getting twisted, especially because Ryan will start losing votes if it seems certain it will not pass.

Sloober
Apr 1, 2011
Being on the losing side is ANTI-GOP, that's why they invent a new side, or say that X wasn't actually on their side so they didn't actually lose

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

I think a lot of Republican representatives ideal situation right now is to vote for this bill as long as it fails.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
So when this bill fails miserably tomorrow who gets thrown under the bus first?

Sloober
Apr 1, 2011

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So when this bill fails miserably tomorrow who gets thrown under the bus first?

Who is the GOP establishment unhappy about?


It'll be them

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So when this bill fails miserably tomorrow who gets thrown under the bus first?

Nobody gets thrown under a bus since that implies there's going to be any sort of coherent plan to blame someone. Everyone's going to be trying to knife everyone else. Freedom Caucus trying to knife Ryan, Ryan trying to knife the Freedom Caucus, the Freedom Caucus trying to knife the moderates, and Trump trying to knife whoever seems vulnerable to make sure the blame isn't attached to him. Ted Cruz will be Ted Cruz and try to knife someone just for the fun of it. The Senate Republicans are the only ones who will probably emerge unscathed.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

So this is an interesting theory. The conservatives are rebelling against (in part) the refusal to gut the regulations about what insurance has to cover. Leadership says it's because those can't be removed through reconciliation. Here's an alternative theory:

In short, it suggests that maybe Republicans could attack those regulations in the same way they attacked the mandate: the mandate isn't removed (because it's not a budget item) but the penalty (paid to the government, ergo a budget item) is changed to zero.

quote:

Eliminating the essential health benefits was part of a leaked early repeal and replace proposal, dated Feb. 10. By the time leaders debuted the bill weeks later, that provision had been struck. Calling its removal “the biggest puzzle about Ryan’s Obamacare repeal,” Investor’s Business Daily reporter Jed Graham suggested the following:

The decision to preserve ObamaCare’s coverage restrictions may go a very long way in lowering the cost of providing subsidies under the American Health Care Act. That’s because, realistically, the only way that most low-income shoppers would be able to use their much smaller tax subsidy under the GOP plan would be to buy low-value insurance that isn’t available under ObamaCare and won’t protect them from a real health emergency.
In other words: If you loosen regulations, more people might actually find it worthwhile to use the dinky tax credits offered them to purchase dinky insurance, driving up the cost to the federal government. It’s quite the conundrum. Republicans want to deregulate, but they also feel they have to offer some refundable tax credit to sell the bill to moderates and the public. If they deregulate through law, though, the policy analyzers will show that more people might actually use the tax credit and the Congressional Budget Office spending score would blow up.

Arizona Rep. Trent Franks, a Freedom Caucus member who wants Senate Republicans to gut the filibuster if that’s what it takes to get their reforms through, told me Tuesday that this is indeed something leadership is worried about. (A leadership aide insisted that Senate reconciliation rules are still the reason they’re not addressing essential health benefits in this bill.) I had been asking him why, according to what he had heard, there was still so much resistance from leaders about doing whatever’s necessary to unlock their votes.

“I think there’s a secondary concern here,” Franks told me. He paused for a while. “I’ll go ahead, I haven’t explained this to anybody very much, I just don’t want to complicate this debate …”

But?

“I think there’s some concern on [the] part of leadership, that I fully understand, of seeing a tax credit get out of control. And they’re afraid that if you [take] away some of these mandates, that it will upset the CBO budget [score].”

In short: maybe the reason that it doesn't lower premiums is by design so those tax credits aren't usable.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_..._they_want.html

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches
The Hill's "no" count (as in, not including leaners) is up to 22. That said, the leadership seems to have at least some idea of who to target at the last minute to flip.

Sloober
Apr 1, 2011

eviltastic posted:

The Hill's "no" count (as in, not including leaners) is up to 22. That said, the leadership seems to have at least some idea of who to target at the last minute to flip.

Sounds like none of the counts are reliable since they report different numbers

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

eviltastic posted:

The Hill's "no" count (as in, not including leaners) is up to 22. That said, the leadership seems to have at least some idea of who to target at the last minute to flip.

They have managed to twist one arm, at least: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/barletta-supports-health-bill

Presumably they're also seeing who else they can buy off with the promise of a vote on a separate bill.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

and trump continues his unbroken string of closing the dea...

quote:

On Tuesday afternoon, Trump hosted more than a dozen members of the Tuesday Group, a moderate House faction, in the Oval Office for a lower-key lobbying session that involved Trump asking each person to relay their concerns about the bill.

Going into the White House meeting, Rep. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.) described himself as “a strong lean no,” citing a variety of concerns. “My views are based on fundamentals in the legislation,” he said. “I don’t see the lower premiums in this bill.”

After the meeting, he said his views had hardened: “I’m a no,” he told reporters.

oh

oh dear

Rhesus Pieces
Jun 27, 2005

https://twitter.com/nickbaumann/status/844642891909791744

lol

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FBS
Apr 27, 2015

The real fun of living wisely is that you get to be smug about it.

Do we have any idea what the vote should happen tomorrow (if they vote at all)?

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