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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Ryan's real dumb and let himself be put in this position, but he thinks he's smart enough to find a way out of it (he ain't, there's no such answer) I think it's less that he thinks he's smart enough to find a way out, and more that he's now desperate. Desperate people do stupid things, and at the end of the day ripping the bandaid off any faster isn't going to help Ryan. He might as well take every long-shot chance he can get because failure is going to be so devastating that it doesn't really matter if he ameliorates it a little. Assuming he can't get the votes, there is just no good option. Not voting on the bill destroys Republican credibility with their base. Absolutely destroys it. They asked for, and got, control of the government and can't even hold a vote. But holding a vote is just as bad. It will destroy anyone who votes in favor of it in 2018 who hails from any district less than like, 65% republican. This bill has 40% approval among GOP voters. You could not have a bigger millstone around your vulnerable and "only vulnerable in a wave" members if you tried. And those congressmen who don't take the bait and vote against it? Well, they may get primaried. They may lose because their dead-ender base is furious and won't turn out. There's just no good outs here for Ryan. McConnell has the best Senate map he could possibly dream of. To lose the Senate in 2018 Texas would need to elect a Democrat. He can afford these consequences. Ryan can't. So McConnell can just minimize the damage and ride out the storm and hope people vote based on something else in 2020, while hoping some other SCOTUS judge dies while he still controls the Senate. He doesn't care about the House, they'll pass their tax cuts, then be done with legislating for a decade.
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Mar 23, 2017 18:53
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mdemone posted:I can't decide whether I'm enjoying Ryan or Trump more in all this. Obviously Trump deserves so much more of an rear end-kicking than he'll ever receive, but there is just something about Ryan. I have this visceral disgust for the guy, like he's something I just saw crawl out of my sink. I don't think Trump understands what a gently caress up this all is, and I don't think he'd care if he did. Ryan, on the other hand, is radiating panic. If it didn't have a small chance of passing, it would all be quite entertaining, but we all learned not to gloat before the vote.
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Mar 23, 2017 18:54
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https://twitter.com/GlennThrush/status/844970082946158597 lol
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Mar 23, 2017 18:55
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GOD BLESS THE FREEDOM CAUCUS https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844969330316062722 sting, little scorpions, sting "oh, you'll give into our demands? uh, now we have more"
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Mar 23, 2017 18:57
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Yessss ha ha ha. I'll hold my unrestrained glee until it actually DOESN'T clear the House, though. Also this is putting into stark relief how loving evil/vampiric the HFC is ha ha ha
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Mar 23, 2017 18:57
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Flip Yr Wig posted:I don't think Trump understands what a gently caress up this all is, and I don't think he'd care if he did. Ryan, on the other hand, is radiating panic. If it didn't have a small chance of passing, it would all be quite entertaining, but we all learned not to gloat before the vote. https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844971757689823233 that is lower than W post-katrina
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Mar 23, 2017 18:59
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how the hell was he at 50-50 before
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Mar 23, 2017 19:00
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lol the freedom caucus keeps on giving https://twitter.com/GlennThrush/status/844972213619118080
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Mar 23, 2017 19:01
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Craig K posted:how the hell was he at 50-50 before iirc polling only "likely voters" (most approval ratings are all adults) along with the usual rassmussen house effect
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Mar 23, 2017 19:02
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Craig K posted:how the hell was he at 50-50 before It's Rasmussen, they have at least a +3 R slant. So this is even worse than it looks.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:02
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"Nancy Pelosi said it's a rookie mistake to schedule a vote before you have a consensus. How do you respond to that?" "I........thank you." lmfao
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Mar 23, 2017 19:03
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Haha the expert deal making ability of Trump everyone.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:03
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https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/844972862154948608
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Mar 23, 2017 19:05
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If they delay the vote too long, people will have time to read what's in it Can't have that, so they'll have to change it again before the vote
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Mar 23, 2017 19:06
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Im here for the lulz if they wont vote on the bill.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:05
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evilweasel posted:lol the freedom caucus keeps on giving They're bugeyed blood-crazed inhuman maniacs lol
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Mar 23, 2017 19:07
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Reporter: "What's the backup plan if it doesn't pass tonight?" Spicer: "It's gonna pass! That's it!"
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Mar 23, 2017 19:12
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evilweasel posted:GOD BLESS THE FREEDOM CAUCUS It's not over yet. There's still time to poison them with polonium.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:17
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Accretionist posted:It's not over yet. There's still time to poison them with polonium. polonium takes too long, but russia is also ok with acute lead poisioning
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Mar 23, 2017 19:24
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They'd have their votes if only they'd held the meeting on a fourth floor balcony. Rookie mistake!
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Mar 23, 2017 19:25
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Accretionist posted:Good thing they're legalizing ISP-sales of browsing histories. Activists can start buying congressmen's records. Can you FOIA request web search histories of Congress?
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Mar 23, 2017 19:26
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https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844978878091350016 freedom caucus working hard to make sure that their demands can't be met
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Mar 23, 2017 19:28
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evilweasel posted:https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844978878091350016 These people don't even know what it is they're cutting or why, do they.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:30
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Oxxidation posted:These people don't even know what it is they're cutting or why, do they. for SOME REASON republican legislators are very, very upset they have to pay for women's health care
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Mar 23, 2017 19:31
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Up to 16 non-HFC "no" votes: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/844980161552494598 It's hard to see anything that gets 80% of the HFC on board (which is what you need with only 8 votes to spare) at all, let alone without losing more votes
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Mar 23, 2017 19:34
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evilweasel posted:https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844978878091350016 Do some of them actually think their voters are going to...like this particular demand? 
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Mar 23, 2017 19:35
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evilweasel posted:for SOME REASON republican legislators are very, very upset they have to pay for women's health care Women are inferior and why should the Master Gender (and race) have to pay for anything for them
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Mar 23, 2017 19:36
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Majorian posted:Do some of them actually think their voters are going to...like this particular demand? Their top concern is not getting primaried from the right.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:37
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Don't worry guys Sean Spicer reassured us in no uncertain terms that the bill will pass and they don't need a plan B
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Mar 23, 2017 19:38
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we just don't want federal dollars paying for abortion or pregnancy or breast cancer dongs, though, all of the federal money needed for dong-related medicine, that's very important
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Mar 23, 2017 19:39
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Oxxidation posted:These people don't even know what it is they're cutting or why, do they. They've always wanted a full repeal. They've just been slowly moving the goalposts until they get it, while Trump ineffectually yells at them and Ryan crawls further and further into a net of barbed wire.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:39
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Majorian posted:Do some of them actually think their voters are going to...like this particular demand? Their voters only care if it pisses off liberals, which it would.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:39
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Majorian posted:Do some of them actually think their voters are going to...like this particular demand? It lowers premiums! When insurers don't have to pay anything they can have really low premiums!
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Mar 23, 2017 19:43
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Xae posted:It lowers premiums! Think of the profit when people pay you 100 dollars a month to not cover anything
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Mar 23, 2017 19:44
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Let's all remember the Republicans have no balls though and will roll over for some scraps in the end.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:46
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RocktheCaulk posted:Let's all remember the Republicans have no balls though and will roll over for some scraps in the end. Cool thanks for be low effort Nothing Matters post.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:49
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If Paul Ryan pulls this bill from being voted on tonight, I'm going to be pissed. I've already bought beer and chips.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:50
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RocktheCaulk posted:Let's all remember the Republicans have no balls though and will roll over for some scraps in the end. the HFC repeatedly refused to sign onto bills giving them 95% of what they wanted, forcing House leadership to get enough Dems on board that they got, like, 20% of what they wanted, during the Obama Administration it's sort of what they do
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Mar 23, 2017 19:51
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The HFC could have privatized Social Security, remember that. they are stupid.
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Mar 23, 2017 19:59
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Thank god they're so stupid and inflexible In, like, very specific cases.
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Mar 23, 2017 20:03
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