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Copy pasted from the GDT because I'm an idiot. So today, the Raptors won the game with a total of 10 assists and 17 turnovers. This leads to a few funny numbers questions. 1) What's the lowest assist total a team has had this year while still winning? There's actually only been one other game this year where the winning team scored 10 or less assists. The Bulls beat Utah back in November with 8 assists. 2) People talk all the time about point guards AST/TO per game ratio. What about team AST/TO for this season? I couldn't find that on BBREF so I made a quick chart.  I guess I probably shoulda cut off some digits but w/e. Raw assist numbers: Toronto comes in last with 18.3 a game. This is one APG behind second last ranked Pheonix Suns. Meanwhile, GSW averages an insane 30.3 assists a game, 5 over the second ranked Rockets. Assist/TO: Raptors are bad, but not dead last. If it's any consolation, the Suns and the Nets are kinda in a league of there on this one. Goddamn. No one thinks of Hornets as being in the Warriors league, but they're the only team sniffing their top ranked ratio. Of the teams in the bottom 8, only three are good: The Raptors, Jazz, and Thunder (sorry Atlanta fans). What I find slightly interesting is that they all accomplish having bad AST/TO in different ways. For the Thunder, that's the Westbrook effect. They play crazy wild basketball. He averages tons of assists (and tons of TO's), but I suspect that if you looked at the numbers of assists for teams minus their starting point guards the Thunder would be last by far. Meanwhile the Jazz play vintage slow basketball and let Hayward and Hill split the ball handling, with neither really being assist machines.Toronto plays much closer to the pace of OKC than the Jazz, but we don't have a crazy ball dominant point guard surrounded by turnover machines. So what are we doing? Well, you know my spiel by now and I can't quite find the Iso% numbers to back it up, but we're iso-ing a shitload through Derozan (and Lowry when he's around). Raptors draw an insane number of free throws, and that also skews assist numbers because assists that generate FT points aren't counted in traditional stats. But seriously -- We're barely trailing the Rockets in FT's made so far this year (by 13, both played 71 games) but per /100 possessions the team leads the league in FT's made, beating the Rockets by a solid .8 . Any ways, I'm pretty sure that teams that win by shooting FT's die in the playoffs, but Derozan was on fire tonight so he gets a pass from me.
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Mar 24, 2017 05:41
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WhyteRyce posted:Owners are fine getting paid off. Ok, so who is paying them off? It isn't Stern unless he really does have a secret slush fund that the owners completely ignore. So it's the lottery winner who is funding the bribe. Except when Cleveland wins the lottery, Chicago suspects them of paying off E&Y. When NO wins, Cleveland and Chicago both give them a long look. And they all stare at Philly when that happens. So are these teams paid off for their silence too? Sounds expensive, more-so each year. And what if both NO and Philly want to win it this year, who arbitrates? This starting to sound like a very unwieldy situation. Meanwhile Stern gets...what exactly? If an owner was demonstrably shown that another franchise being given the #1 pick and with certain scenarios playing out would grow the entire league over X number of years. If an owner saw more economic value added to his franchise if another team got the #1 pick I don't believe it's outlandish that they'd go with the option that'd get them more $$$ long-term. I didn't mean some guy in a trench coat carrying a briefcase to Cuban's office or a straightforward bribe. That stuff is small-time for a billionaire. Stern does his job and makes more $$$ for himself and his friends. I don't believe all the NBA owners are as adversarial with one another as fans are. This wouldn't be franchise vs. franchise it could be a lot more collusive in nature. Arbitration wouldn't be too hard. Thirty billionaires have the resources to access an amazing amount of market research that'd lead to a lot of compelling data (from all kinds of sources) concluding that NOP, PHI or another franchise getting the #1 pick would benefit the league the most in a certain way. WhyteRyce posted:Not all the owners are in on it? So like only Philly, Chicago, Cleveland, and New Orleans are part of this secret kabal? That's an...odd mix No, I'm not going that far and calling out all the recent drafts and teams. Basically CLE getting #1 three times in a four year interval is mathematically suspicious. An even funnier possibility is that the owner being given all the #1 picks could be left in the dark. Dan Gilbert wouldn't even have to know he was getting the picks for this to benefit his team and others. The less people that know the better. Classic plausible deniability.
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Mar 24, 2017 06:06
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Zogo posted:No, I'm not going that far and calling out all the recent drafts and teams. Basically CLE getting #1 three times in a four year interval is mathematically suspicious. The Edmonton Oilers won 3 straight lotteries and 4 in 6 years literally no one outside of the Oilers org wanted the Oilers to get McDavid
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Mar 24, 2017 06:21
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I don't think it's so much that you can't win by being a free throw shooting team in the playoffs, it's that you have to generate the sorts of fouls that refs are forced to call even when they're inclined to swallow their whistles. Derozan getting reached-in on or slightly bumped just stops being consistently a foul at some point in the playoffs. I don't really think that's super fair but I mean I would rather they call the games all year like the playoffs than the way they do in the regular season.
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Mar 24, 2017 06:39
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I feel like someone is trying to explain to me how their Rube Goldberg machine works by describing how some of the pieces theoretically operate. I also like how it's a dance between "not everyone is involved" and "all these owners actually get along and have data to agree on the big picture that brings them to a consensus"
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Mar 24, 2017 06:40
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attackmole posted:2) People talk all the time about point guards AST/TO per game ratio. What about team AST/TO for this season? Yea, GSW and CHO have two of the top ten best ratios since 1978: code:Nissin Cup Nudist posted:The Edmonton Oilers won 3 straight lotteries and 4 in 6 years The Oilers had a much, much better shot over that period of pulling that off. From what I've read these were their percentages for retaining the #1 pick from 2010-2012: 2010 .482 2011 .482 2012 .188 That's a 1 in 23 shot. Cavaliers were way lower than that. WhyteRyce posted:I feel like someone is trying to explain to me how their Rube Goldberg machine works by describing how some of the pieces theoretically operate. I also like how it's a dance between "not everyone is involved" and "all these owners actually get along and have data to agree on the big picture that brings them to a consensus" It's all just speculation on possibilities. Zogo fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 06:52
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the fix is in 
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Mar 24, 2017 06:52
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Also  at the idea of convincing Dan Gilbert he'd make more money over the long term via revenue sharing and TV deals for the league by letting Anthony Davis go to New Orleans vs. just getting him himself and enjoying all the direct Anthony Davis related revenue and benefits. It's like a reverse tragedy of the commons
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Mar 24, 2017 06:53
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WhyteRyce posted:Also That's why Mr. Comic Sans would be better off left in the dark.
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Mar 24, 2017 06:56
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Why would anyone want Cleveland to have anything nice, I'm not following your line of thought
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Mar 24, 2017 06:58
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It was pretty convenient that LeBron had a team with an all-star (and a rookie people would trade an all-star for) to go back to right around the time the two all-stars on his current team were slowing down.
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Mar 24, 2017 07:22
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Zogo posted:No, I'm not going that far and calling out all the recent drafts and teams. Basically CLE getting #1 three times in a four year interval is mathematically suspicious. Any given result of four lottery's in the low is mathematically improbable in retrospect. The highest result chance, that the worst team wins it each year for four years in a row is 0.4% and it just gets lower for any other combination. Sure, the chances of Cleveland winning it were low., but you can look at any given series of four winners and say "WOW THE CHANCES OF THIS WERE UNREALLY LOW" and you'd be right because any sequence of events is going to be a dumb low probability, people just notice when it's the same team. You know what, I'm bored. Let's play this game. The current NBA draft lottery odds were set in 1994. I'm going to look at every four year interval since then run the probability that it occurred. 1994-1997: 0.111% 1995-1998: 0.154% 1996-1999: 0.248% 1997-2000: 0.0337% 1998-2001: 0.0245% 1999-2002: 0.00965% 2000-2003: 0.0138% 2001-2004: 0.0786% 2002-2005: 0.0315% 2003-2006: 0.0312% 2004-2007: 0.00735% 2005-2008: 0.0000400% 2006-2009: 0.000140% 2007-2010: 0.000164% 2008-2011: 0.0000868% 2009-2012: 0.00699% 2010-2013: 0.00616% 2011-2014: 0.00101% 2012-2015: 0.00908% 2013-2016: 0.0166% So uh, I mean was it unlikely, yes, can we make fun of Cleveland, yes, but to call it mathematically suspicious is dumb. The most unlikely four year series was 2005-2008, where we have Bogut (6.3%), Bargs (8.8%), Oden (5.3%), and Rose (1.7%) drafted in succession. And I've never noticed that before, but goddamn the league managed to draft 4 injured wrecks in a row, cool. CRISPYBABY fucked around with this message at 07:38 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 07:33
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attackmole posted:So uh, I mean was it unlikely, yes, can we make fun of Cleveland, yes, but to call it mathematically suspicious is dumb. The most unlikely four year series was 2005-2008, where we have Bogut (6.3%), Bargs (8.8%), Oden (5.3%), and Rose (1.7%) drafted in succession. And I've never noticed that before, but goddamn the league managed to draft 4 injured wrecks in a row, cool. And in three of them, the real star ended up being the second pick (Aldridge, Durant, Super Cool Beas). Coincidence? Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 07:42 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 07:40
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I watched some 90's games after people were talking about it the other day. And drat, those teams would all get steamrolled by GSW/CLE/SAS. None of them would be used to playing all the way out to the 3pt line.
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Mar 24, 2017 07:48
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Spite posted:I watched some 90's games after people were talking about it the other day. There was a Malone/Stockton highlight vid posted here a few months ago and the level of defense is painful to watch. Basically every defender on Malone short of like David Robinson completely loses track of the play as soon as Malone sets a pick.
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Mar 24, 2017 07:55
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Zogo posted:If Sterling had said something like "freedom of speech etc. etc." it would've been a gigantic and ongoing PR disaster/fiasco for years. Hah, it's true. But if he'd been about his mental facilities and not a senile ol' weirdo he probably would have remembered who Magic Johnson was instead of ranting to his mix-raced mistress about bringing random "black guys" to his games lol that dude had gone cranky with age Dementia is a waking nightmare for the victim during their lucid moments when they understand they are losing their cognition, and a different sort of nightmare for loving relatives, fortunately Sterling probably doesn't have many of those. Maybe that son of his who shot one of his friends in the back with a shotgun over some d-list actress loved him but he ODed and died in their vacation home years ago. Dear God I pray every night that I may become rich some day.
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Mar 24, 2017 08:41
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Zogo posted:If Sterling had said something like "freedom of speech etc. etc." it would've been a gigantic and ongoing PR disaster/fiasco for years. I dunno. Cuban spent a while saying exactly this as loudly as he could and nobody really listened.
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Mar 24, 2017 10:31
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https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/845145986334801920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fnba%2F
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Mar 24, 2017 13:55
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Lockback posted:https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/845145986334801920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fnba%2F Ahh, now that explains why they lost to the Nets by 30.
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Mar 24, 2017 14:03
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attackmole posted:Any given result of four lottery's in the low is mathematically improbable in retrospect. The highest result chance, that the worst team wins it each year for four years in a row is 0.4% and it just gets lower for any other combination. Sure, the chances of Cleveland winning it were low., but you can look at any given series of four winners and say "WOW THE CHANCES OF THIS WERE UNREALLY LOW" and you'd be right because any sequence of events is going to be a dumb low probability, people just notice when it's the same team. Compounding all odds is spurious, you have to go bayesian and guns blazdieng to see what's up
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Mar 24, 2017 14:11
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Lockback posted:https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/845145986334801920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fnba%2F
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Mar 24, 2017 14:21
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This rigging poo poo so loving tedious
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Mar 24, 2017 14:35
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Spite posted:I watched some 90's games after people were talking about it the other day. Yeah but it's all about the rules. Some of those 90's teams would isolate and post up with relative impunity. Then you have a parade of dunks and foul shots. It's boring but effective. None of those 18-3 runs if it's a good team with a good coach. Now law of averages says the 3 still wins but consider a cold shooting night or being dominated on the boards and i'm not so sure.
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Mar 24, 2017 14:42
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Imagine LeBron in an era before the Mark Jackson rule 
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Mar 24, 2017 15:54
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Dejan Bimble posted:Compounding all odds is spurious, you have to go bayesian and guns blazdieng to see what's up I mean all the draws are independent probability events. Unless you wanna go bongo and create some bigass model getting the probability of teams staying in the lottery next year given a high lottery pick the previous year and condition over that.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:27
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90's culture would swallow current athletes whole. No way could they deal with the onslaught of movie deals and cocaine
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Mar 24, 2017 16:29
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Doltos posted:90's culture would swallow current athletes whole. No way could they deal with the onslaught of movie deals and cocaine Worrying about catching AIDs takes a lot of time and effort that could be spent in the gym.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:43
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Factoring in that Harrison Barnes has been the better ISO scorer this season, would you rather have Barnes or Melo on your team?
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Mar 24, 2017 18:36
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AggressivelyStupid posted:Imagine LeBron in an era before the Mark Jackson rule The best case scenario when playing Lebron is he goes into the traditional post, so sure.
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Mar 24, 2017 18:37
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Rick posted:The best case scenario when playing Lebron is he goes into the traditional post, so sure. Actually best case is a midrange jumpshot
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Mar 24, 2017 18:44
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Spacebump posted:Factoring in that Harrison Barnes has been the better ISO scorer this season, would you rather have Barnes or Melo on your team? I think the obvious answer is Barnes.
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Mar 24, 2017 18:46
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Spacebump posted:Factoring in that Harrison Barnes has been the better ISO scorer this season, would you rather have Barnes or Melo on your team? Lol why not use a useful player for a comparison
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Mar 24, 2017 18:47
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That depends, are we choosing a player for a basketball game, or to stake a claim on a mine in the 1800s?
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Mar 24, 2017 18:49
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Spacebump posted:Factoring in that Harrison Barnes has been the better ISO scorer this season, would you rather have Barnes or Melo on your team? I would have said Barnes before you said that
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Mar 24, 2017 18:50
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Zogo posted:When the Bulls got #1 and were able to select hometown hero Rose that was a little suspicious and tailor-made. Or when the Sixers finally got the #1 pick in exchange for firing Hinkie and hiring Colangelos.
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Mar 24, 2017 18:56
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If Adam Silver wants to help the Lakers he'll rig it so they fall 4 thus saving them from run by Lavar Ball for the next four years.
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Mar 24, 2017 19:00
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Spacebump posted:Factoring in that Harrison Barnes has been the better ISO scorer this season, would you rather have Barnes or Melo on your team? Given the age and salary Barnes for sure, but they both have the same TS% and Melo actually has a higher ORTG (Mostly because holy poo poo Barnes cannot pass the ball). Melo is the better shooter, now that Barnes isn't on that GSW team he is taking way less 3s at a way lower %. Melo is still a better Offensive focal point, but Barnes is way better defensively.
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Mar 24, 2017 19:02
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Rick posted:If Adam Silver wants to help the Lakers he'll rig it so they fall 4 thus saving them from run by Lavar Ball for the next four years. I want him to go to the Sixers just so I can watch the trainwreck collision between Lavar Ball and Philadelphia.
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Mar 24, 2017 19:06
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It would be funny if Lonzo Ball was the first pick whose draft position falls because teams don't want to deal with his dad.
Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 19:35
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Lonzo Ball needs to end up on the Bulls. There is nothing I want more than this front office to have to deal with someone like Lavar Ball. It would be the only way I could stomach a Butler trade.
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Mar 24, 2017 19:40
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