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Uncle Kitchener posted:Thank you. Question, would you consider LePen, Jarosław Kaczyński or Putin secular? No I'm not implying that you support them you might very well loathe them. But my question is this what makes their populism so different from the robber barons in the ME who has pretty much the same worldy reasons to hammer out that they are the appostoles of their nation/ummah/identity? Are one of the base bombastic narratives better then the other? Secularism stands for plurality, the horror of the 30 years war might have evocted its message, but gently caress me if humans haven't created more misery out fanciful belief that did not have anything about a deity in question.
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Mar 24, 2017 18:32
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Panzeh posted:The YPG is actually left-wing and espouses left wing beliefs while the other opposition never did. I never saw any left wing issues, iconography, or anything coming out of the opposition. They were bougie as gently caress. Thank you for the effort in making socialism into another braindead ego booster you loving Jacobin.
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Mar 24, 2017 18:45
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Panzeh posted:Do you want me to bring up examples where a no fly zone has preceded greater military involvement? Because Putins involement did, though not great....more medicore/bland, whimpering things along slowly....like they don't really give a poo poo.
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Mar 24, 2017 18:58
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Crossposting from the Trump thread. The former head of the CIA personally witnessed Flynn discussing with Turkish ministers how they could get their hands on the traitor Gulen: https://twitter.com/GrahamDavidA/status/845345841497985026
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Mar 24, 2017 19:49
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SDF continue to up their trolling game: https://twitter.com/abdullahawez/status/845300592952127488 quote:SDF spokesperson: we welcome SAA participation in Raqqa offensive because its a national army, but refuse Turkey because it supports terror. Attached to that is a tidbit of very interesting information: https://twitter.com/abdullahawez/status/845301422275088385 quote:SDF spokesperson to pro-Assad paper: our forces will reach borders of Raqqa city in 10-15 days - the full reports: http://alwatan.sy/archives/97056 Throatwarbler posted:There's little evidence so suggest the YPG are competent at anything other than telling their American masters which house to bomb. IS is the most competent force on the ground and they would have have defeated every other faction by now if it weren't for Russian and Iranian meddling. Human Grand Prix posted:I'm not so sure about that one bud. I highly doubt they would have defeated the YPG, and they probably would have entered a stalemate with the regime. The Syrian Army Airforce performs decently enough, which gives them an advantage. As for the SAA, "Lost Palmyra twice, maybe three times" is all that needs to be said. Certain branches may be competent (Tiger Forces, the guys in Deir Ez Zor) but as a whole the SAA is... pretty mediocre.
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Mar 24, 2017 19:50
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https://twitter.com/Nidalgazaui/status/845333882627117056 Every time.
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Mar 24, 2017 20:09
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Assuming the SAA hasn't gotten there by the time Raqqa falls, it really seems like that has to be the next SDF target.
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Mar 24, 2017 20:11
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Harakat Nujaba in Homs. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/845286410634625024
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Mar 24, 2017 20:11
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https://twitter.com/CT_operative/status/845322132590645248
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Mar 24, 2017 20:48
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Saladin Rising posted:Nice HD map of the Tabqa-Raqqa area: Everything the SDF is just a giant pincer movement  Only competent force in this entire war. They might really be able to sack Raqqa with nowhere near as much bloodshed that could have been imagined a few months ago. And if ISIS had any brains left they'd abandon the state project before it completely collapses and move on to whatever their plans might be for the future. Human Grand Prix posted:Another thing to highlight during this war is the absolutely insane amount casualties the Alawite community has taken. Aside from Assad, they seem to say very little. Yea, a minority population cannot sustain this level of warfare against the majority population. Assad's rule is finished and only the SDF offers a workable framework for Syria.
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Mar 24, 2017 22:13
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Brother Friendship posted:Everything the SDF is just a giant pincer movement What Exactly what kind of framework do you think they offer Syria as a whole, besides gently caress off from Rojava During some of their recent offensives local leaders in Raqqa refused to negotiate with the SDF because they believed it was too dominated by rival tribes, preferring instead to communicate directly with the YPG Note this is not meant as a criticism, but if you think the SDF is going to replace Assad somehow you should be able to justify your reasoning.
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Mar 24, 2017 22:25
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Squalid posted:What SDF is supported by powers (USA, Russia) that otherwise are opposed, meaning that they are a vehicle for cooperation for foreign backers. They have 'settled' the Syrian situation east of the Euphrates, which gives them a large and stable base of operations both civil and martial. They are, at least nominally, arguing for a workable democratic and non sectarian framework and what I've seen over the years supports that notion. They have grown so powerful that, aside from a Turkish intervention, they cannot be attacked by any of the other factions inside Syria. It's not perfect, but the SDF is the lynch pin of a realistic political solution. And I do not see any short term, medium term or long term stability that entrenches Assad in power. Even if the Assad regime is placed atop Syria how long will it be until it all falls apart? I just don't see any solution to Syria that doesn't involve the federalization of the provinces and the dilution of the power of Damascus, otherwise the country will get caught in the same mess a decade or a generation down the line.
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Mar 24, 2017 22:33
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ISIS can't really be said to be good at war. They may fight hard on the battlefield but in the course of doing so they have made a huge amount of enemies who are beating them everywhere. That is a key component of being a fuckup at fighting wars. It is the archetypal "won the battle, lost the war".
Torpor fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Mar 25, 2017 |
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Mar 25, 2017 00:17
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Torpor posted:ISIS can't really be said to be good at war. They may fight hard on the battlefield but in the course of doing so they have made a huge amount of enemies who are beating them everywhere. That is a key component of being a fuckup at fighting wars. It is the archetypal "won the battle, lost the war". They carved out an independent polity that spanned an international border, defeated every military force originally in opposition, and just now after three years finally starting to lose their geographical gains. They spawned allegiances who carried out mass murders in multiple nations from the ones they were in to the United States, and arguably reinvented guerilla/insurgency style warfare. Warfare isn't even their raison d'etre, it was a means to an end (a caliphate). They literally invented a short-lived new nation-state with its own government and propaganda - and yet they must have known all along the end would come. I guess my point is that you are way oversimplifying this.
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Mar 25, 2017 00:58
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Brother Friendship posted:SDF is supported by powers (USA, Russia) that otherwise are opposed, meaning that they are a vehicle for cooperation for foreign backers. They have 'settled' the Syrian situation east of the Euphrates, which gives them a large and stable base of operations both civil and martial. They are, at least nominally, arguing for a workable democratic and non sectarian framework and what I've seen over the years supports that notion. They have grown so powerful that, aside from a Turkish intervention, they cannot be attacked by any of the other factions inside Syria. All completely true, but nothing about the SDF as it exists now really offers a framework for ending the conflict. Ultimately as an extension of the YPG they suffer from the same problem you've identified in Assad's government, Syria's Kurdish minority can't, and shouldn't, control all of Syria. Until the SDf changes fundamentally such that it can act independent of the YPG there is no framework for a general peace. Honestly it's more likely cities like Raqqa will be handed back to the regime than the SDF will just keep rolling west once ISIS is defeated.
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Mar 25, 2017 01:25
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Squalid posted:All completely true, but nothing about the SDF as it exists now really offers a framework for ending the conflict. Ultimately as an extension of the YPG they suffer from the same problem you've identified in Assad's government, Syria's Kurdish minority can't, and shouldn't, control all of Syria. Until the SDf changes fundamentally such that it can act independent of the YPG there is no framework for a general peace. Honestly it's more likely cities like Raqqa will be handed back to the regime than the SDF will just keep rolling west once ISIS is defeated. But the SDF have already been dealing constructively with various communities? The Federation of North Syria now has lots of Arabic and Christian member localities. There are numerous tribes in Hasakah with a working relationship with their YPG neighbors. Every week, we see a new batch of Arabic recruits graduate to form a new local defense force. The Syrian Kurds can't control all Syria, because of course they shouldn't and can't, but nobody suggested that? What are Manbij, Raqqa countryside, Hasakah and Shaddadi if not areas where the confederal framework is currently offering a way for local communities to live together, without either the Assad despotism, the rebel chaos or the Daesh absolutism? That does not mean the Federation project as it stands (or the TEV-DEM, see the party registration thing) is perfect, far from it. But where else do we see peaceful handovers like this? https://twitter.com/_liberationnat_/status/835268523513425920 https://twitter.com/_liberationnat_/status/835270205152505856 Somewhere in Syria, a political and security solution was reached between ADP and TEV-DEM, without bloodshed or forced expulsions. That does not mean the balance between local autonomy and Federalist unity will be easy or quick, but at least it's a try. ecureuilmatrix fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Mar 25, 2017 |
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Mar 25, 2017 01:50
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Squalid posted:All completely true, but nothing about the SDF as it exists now really offers a framework for ending the conflict. Ultimately as an extension of the YPG they suffer from the same problem you've identified in Assad's government, Syria's Kurdish minority can't, and shouldn't, control all of Syria. Until the SDf changes fundamentally such that it can act independent of the YPG there is no framework for a general peace. The framework that is appealing about the SDF is that it approaches society with decentralized and democratic power structures that empower the population regardless of ethnicity, religion or gender. They have seemed fair in how they have treated those under their power, and even handed in how they've conducted themselves over conquered and occupied territories. They operate efficiently and bring stability in their wake without resorting to extreme violence and internal oppression, which makes them something of an oddity in the modern Middle East. I believe that the model they have established for themselves is the best alternative for Syria because the world is relative even while I accept it could be a bunch of bullshit I just drank the piss. Assad deserves no such consideration and has demonstrated at every turn why his rule must be systematically dismantled. I mean, lmao, the alternative is Captain Chinless and his adventures with meat hooks and mass graves so what the gently caress does Syria have to lose? quote:Honestly it's more likely cities like Raqqa will be handed back to the regime than the SDF will just keep rolling west once ISIS is defeated. Deir Ezzor would have fallen to ISIS during the last offensive if it weren't for the cooperation of the Kurds. Assadian resupply and reinforcement was based in Hasakah, which was allowed to stay Assadian hands after conflict erupted between the two parties last year and the SDF all but removed Assad's presence in Eastern Syria. From what limited I've read about Deir Ezzor it was a poor, rural and forgotten city of Sunnis for decades before the war. Then, in the pursuit of the 'Army in All Corners' strategy the Assadians clung on to it despite years of wild attacks and catastrophes. The city belongs to the people who live there and they should be allowed to determine their own fate: life under the regime or life under the SDF. You are right though, it will probably just be a bargaining chip for powers far greater than themselves.
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Mar 25, 2017 02:58
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ecureuilmatrix posted:But the SDF have already been dealing constructively with various communities? The Federation of North Syria now has lots of Arabic and Christian member localities. There are numerous tribes in Hasakah with a working relationship with their YPG neighbors. Every week, we see a new batch of Arabic recruits graduate to form a new local defense force. This is all well and good, but I just wanted to point out any dream of Democratic Federalism spreading across of of Syria is as of today pure fantasy and in direct contradiction to actual practice on the ground and public statements by the PYD. Perhaps if a great many things change, but nobody shout put hope in peace on a big stack of what-ifs. This article covers some of the issues the SDF has faced as they continue expanding into former ISIS territory: "Eastern Expectations: The Changing Dynamics in Syria’s Tribal Regions posted:Arab tribal leaders are divided, with a small number supporting the Kurds and most others opposed to them. Many local Arabs of tribal background fear the designs of the PYD and the Kurds and have been drawn to Operation Euphrates Shield, a Turkish initiative coordinating FSA rebel groups to keep the SDF and Kurdish forces from expanding west of the Euphrates River.57 At the same time, the Syrian regime, through its presence in the cities of Deir Ezzor, al-Hasakeh, and al-Qamishli, is maintaining ties with many individuals in sheikhly families, hoping to regain ground once the Islamic State is decisively weakened.
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Mar 25, 2017 04:06
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One thing that's going to be interesting to see with the apparent US loosening of bombing rules in Syria is unlike Afghanistan (and a lesser extend Iraq) Syrians have 6 years of experience documenting being bombed, so attacks where civilians are killed will be well documented. For example, with the Al-Jinah mosque bombing we have over 35 videos from the attack site, and multiple photographs, including the debris of munitions, victims being dug out of rubble, and multiple videos that give a full tour of the site. This also includes multiple witness statements to camera, and these are shared on social media pages that can be used to reach out to witnesses of the attack for additional material. So far we've spent the last week looking into it and found zero evidence to support the presence of Al-Qaeda militants, with witnesses being consistent about the victims being members of the local religious group and civilians, and saying the building attacked was a mosque. The main inconstancy is exactly how many bombs and missiles were used, but that's unsurprising considering the circumstances.
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Mar 25, 2017 10:44
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Brown Moses posted:One thing that's going to be interesting to see with the apparent US loosening of bombing rules in Syria is unlike Afghanistan (and a lesser extend Iraq) Syrians have 6 years of experience documenting being bombed, so attacks where civilians are killed will be well documented. For example, with the Al-Jinah mosque bombing we have over 35 videos from the attack site, and multiple photographs, including the debris of munitions, victims being dug out of rubble, and multiple videos that give a full tour of the site. This also includes multiple witness statements to camera, and these are shared on social media pages that can be used to reach out to witnesses of the attack for additional material. So far we've spent the last week looking into it and found zero evidence to support the presence of Al-Qaeda militants, with witnesses being consistent about the victims being members of the local religious group and civilians, and saying the building attacked was a mosque. The main inconstancy is exactly how many bombs and missiles were used, but that's unsurprising considering the circumstances. It would not shock me if that mosque was bombed because there was intelligence that the locals had a nickname for the guy who held meetings in that building and some DoD guy thought that was an al-queda leader. The US intelligence agencies are really really dumb like that.
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Mar 25, 2017 11:39
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DIsastrous TOW strike on government forces in Hama. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e0QaQIS1cY
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Mar 25, 2017 21:44
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God drat, how many got taken out by that, thirty? Reminds me of those schmucks crowding around a wall a year or two back that got TPK'd by a TOW. Weren't they also Govt? WarpedNaba fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Mar 25, 2017 |
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Mar 25, 2017 21:51
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WarpedNaba posted:God drat, how many got taken out by that, thirty? Yes. I'm not going to link the video because it's NMS. It's FSA taking out SAA with a TOW. Using a wire guided ATGM on infantry (assuming they've sighted it on an actual human) is just beyond all kinds of hosed up. Does no one in the ME have mortars? Because assuming the bad guys in both videos deploy armoured vehicles, why would you waste a TOW missile on a bunch of infantry that are in MG and mortar range. Anyway the only reason it wasted so many dudes is because they're clustered like that, which is stupid as hell in open flat ground with no cover in broad daylight. While at war. I mean, I'm so paranoid I won't sit in a restaurant or pub with my back to the door and I live in Canada ffs, how do you stand around in a goddamn field in sunshine in a combat environment? No snipers or spotters to identify a TOW nakedly set up on a roof? Any hint of awareness that people are out to kill them whatsoever.
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Mar 25, 2017 22:14
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Huggybear posted:Yes. I'm not going to link the video because it's NMS. It's FSA taking out SAA with a TOW. Using a wire guided ATGM on infantry (assuming they've sighted it on an actual human) is just beyond all kinds of hosed up. Does no one in the ME have mortars? Because assuming the bad guys in both videos deploy armoured vehicles, why would you waste a TOW missile on a bunch of infantry that are in MG and mortar range. Anyway the only reason it wasted so many dudes is because they're clustered like that, which is stupid as hell in open flat ground with no cover in broad daylight. While at war. The shot would have been from almost 4km away, no one in the targeted group could possibly have seen the shooter. TOW missiles are great weapons because you can get them for free from the CIA.
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Mar 25, 2017 22:18
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Throatwarbler posted:The shot would have been from almost 4km away, no one in the targeted group could possibly have seen the shooter. TOW missiles are great weapons because you can get them for free from the CIA. It looks more like 3k but w/e, a good spotter with binoculars could easily have picked up a TOW team setting up or at least shouted several warnings during the 12ish seconds of flight, hell even a mobile phone (which easily recorded the event from the same distance as the TOW) has decent magnification. I stand by my analysis that those dudes are terrible at soldiering.
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Mar 25, 2017 22:30
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WarpedNaba posted:God drat, how many got taken out by that, thirty? From my limited understanding these are anti armor weapons, not anti personal, so their explosive is designed to penetrate feet of armor by concentrating its blast so it punctures tanks like a spear. Anti personal weaponry would be designed to have a large spread. So while ATGMs are effective at long range strikes, they are not necessarily big killers. So maybe not dozens killed, maybe not even wounded, but that is a bloodier hit than anything we saw coming out of Aleppo last summer. Those soldiers were lined up against a wall for the most part, and only one landed in a crowd. This was a gathering of a hundred if not more soldiers. It's a side effect of new front lines I suppose, there was another instance were an Assadian officer drove into a rebel held town only to be gunned down. This is a regime friendly outlet, and they provide a tally of 5 killed and nearly a dozen injured. Just remember everyone lies about everything because this is the SCW. The videos are interesting on this page as well, especially the third which shows intense urban combat footage. I have no idea who is fighting or where or why  https://southfront.org/government-forces-recapture-more-points-from-terrorists-in-northern-hama/
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Mar 25, 2017 22:30
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Throatwarbler posted:The shot would have been from almost 4km away, no one in the targeted group could possibly have seen the shooter. TOW missiles are great weapons because you can get them for free from the CIA. It's the Saudi's providing TOW's to those groups for the most part. The US stopped as far as I know around the time Hazm collapsed and JaN captured the TOW's there.
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Mar 25, 2017 22:53
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Hama The rebel offensive in Hama is not yet over. The prize of Hama city, with its rich reserves of manpower and prestige, and the breaking of the Rastan siege almost seem within the rebels reach. The main defense line of Hama city has been punctured and now the rebels relentlessly attack the village of Qomhana, referred to by the Assadians as "The Mother of Resistance" for its thick layers of defensive lines and strong supporting positions in the mountains. Without the capture of Qomhana the rebels will be unable to press an attack against Hama city, and even with it they would still need to take the mountains east of Qomhana, which towers over the surrounding area and has long since been turned into a fortress by the Assadians. https://twitter.com/PetoLucem/status/845741266151378945 https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/845753757371633666 The real battle for Hama has now begun, and with it the last hopes of the rebellion against the regime. If the Assadians repeat their success of defending the initial withering blows of the rebels without losing critical territory such as Qomhana and the mountains to its east, if they can flood the area with reinforcements and rake rebel positions and supply lines with air power and artillery, they will break the back of the rebellion. If the rebels succeed in pushing into Hama, linking up with the Rastan pocket, it will be the biggest change in the war since the Russian intervention. Each side will pour themselves into this until there is nothing left but victory or death. There is no other choice.
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Mar 25, 2017 22:57
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Throatwarbler posted:DIsastrous TOW strike on government forces in Hama. from the other prospective 
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Mar 25, 2017 23:34
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The upside-down guy got a laugh out of me.
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Mar 25, 2017 23:44
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Stop saying Assadian
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Mar 25, 2017 23:58
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rear end struggle posted:from the other prospective I think this has been debunked as a photoshop. TOS-1 in action in Hama. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/845688327231750144
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Mar 26, 2017 00:30
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Volkerball posted:Stop saying Assadian News: https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/845745327298805760 quote:Syrian Democratic Forces fully captured Tabqa AirBase and al-Ajil https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/61go3s/sdfs_liwa_suqur_al_raqqa_our_forces_are_now_in/ SDF's Liwa Suqur al Raqqa: Our forces are now in full control of Tabqa Airbase. That's apparently the official facebook of Liwa Suqur al Raqqa, so yeah, looks like ISIS no longer controls Tabqa airbase.  E: More stuff from Tabqa: https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/845650737900273665 quote:SDF discovered an ISIS mortar shell manufacturing factory in the newly liberated village of Hamad Al Assaf. #Raqqa https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/61hw5d/sdf_discovered_an_isis_mortar_shell_manufacturing/ https://twitter.com/24Raqqa/status/845698439174348800 quote:A French army unit was seen by Jaabar N #Tabqa. The Unit is technical unit and experts to support the clashes near of #EuphratesDam. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Mar 26, 2017 |
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Mar 26, 2017 00:49
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Saladin Rising posted:What's a better term, Something that's an actual word people use.
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Mar 26, 2017 00:58
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Huggybear posted:I mean, I'm so paranoid I won't sit in a restaurant or pub with my back to the door and I live in Canada ffs See a doctor, for real.
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Mar 26, 2017 01:05
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Saladin Rising posted:What's a better term, "regime"? There's not really a good term for the motley collection of "SAA, NDF, Hezbollah, SSNP, Shia militias, Afghan militias, Russian forces, Iranian forces" and whoever else is fighting on that side. Anti-rebel?
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Mar 26, 2017 01:15
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Saladin Rising posted:What's a better term, "regime"? There's not really a good term for the motley collection of "SAA, NDF, Hezbollah, SSNP, Shia militias, Afghan militias, Russian forces, Iranian forces" and whoever else is fighting on that side. Assadist?
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Mar 26, 2017 01:34
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Fascist Animals is a pretty good descriptor for anyone who supports or fights for Assad.
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Mar 26, 2017 01:37
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Al-Saqr posted:Fascist Animals is a pretty good descriptor for anyone who supports or fights for Assad. it's not very specific though
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Mar 26, 2017 02:04
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Mosul operations suspended after hundreds of civilians killed in air strike. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/25/iraq-suspends-mosul-offensive-after-coalition-airstrike-atrocity https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...legedly-killed/
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Mar 26, 2017 02:09
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