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He has the brains and body to get around it with time, but I'm confident that cannot happen without a total shot rebuild.
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Mar 25, 2017 07:23
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After watching UCLA-Kentucky last night, the first college game I watched all season, my definitive expert opinion: Lonzo Ball - great vision and passer for a college player, good size and length for a 1, his jump shot is janky as gently caress and there's no way imho he will be able to get it off consistently enough and quick enough to better than average from the NBA three range. It also holds back his ability to create his own shot because he doesn't have great athleticism to drive by NBA guards (though he did look a reliable and creative finisher at the rim when he got in the paint) and his handle is no better than decent. If he had a smooth and fast release that isn't as much of a problem as JJ Reddick, Kyle Korver etc. show where you snap off shots on catch and shoots, coming off screens, quick stepbacks etc. but because his shot is messed up he won't be able to do that when guarded tightly by superior athletes. His vision, passing and size alone makes me think his floor is starter level point guard, but unless he remodels his shot I simply can't see him being all-star level. At the moment he's a 6'6" Ricky Rubio with better rim finishing and not quite as good defence - which is a nice player but not a franchise player. De'Aaron Fox - looked great obviously, but the question is can he do it when he's not comfortably the most athletic player on the floor? He looked very quick and bouncy, but not quite Russell Westbrook/John Wall level to me, so he won't be able to rely solely on that in the NBA. Ran the pick and roll pretty well, his midrange game seemed alright, handle was generally solid but he did lose it a few times when driving. Kentucky don't really run anything approaching an NBA offense so tough to gauge how he could run the point. If he improves his outside shot and works on his dribbling skills then he will be a good 2-guard at the very least. Malik Monk - I was very impressed by him. Shot well coming off screens, catch and shoots, and was able to create his own shot when in possession too with some nice stepbacks, step throughs and hop steps. Showed great range, his shot is fluid, quick and repeatable. Didn't get frustrated when early on he barely touched the ball. Took shots intelligently and wasn't just bombing it even when he got hot in the second half. In the current NBA climate a player with a good, rangy jump shot who can create their own shot is gold dust. These are my snap judgement verdicts, please tell me how wrong I am.
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Mar 25, 2017 17:19
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tanglewood1420 posted:After watching UCLA-Kentucky last night, the first college game I watched all season, my definitive expert opinion: Rubio's handle was otherworldly by the time he was 16. Ball doesn't have the ability to just get whereever he wants, whenever that Rubio always had. Ricky with better finishing is a Jason Kidd level player, which Ball is not, yet.
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Mar 25, 2017 17:34
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I think these are decent snap judgements if you are only looking at offensive potential. Defensively Fox is clearly the standout of the three. Monk looked lost a lot of the time on switches and in general. I think Ball looked less athletic as you said, because Fox was playing very good defense on him. I still think Ball is probably the best overall prospect of the three (though it's closer than it was before), but this game solidified that I would want Fox over Monk on my team.
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Mar 25, 2017 17:54
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Ball has goofy mechanics but he can still reliably knock down shots if he's open which is still valuable. Rubio is a really bizarre comparison. Fox has looked a lot better for the last month or so but he's still the worst shooter of any guard in the draft and that's hard to work with unless you think he's Westbrook or Wall level athletic. I've probably been under rating him a bit but he's going to come out of the tournament overrated, I think MourningView fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Mar 25, 2017 |
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Mar 25, 2017 18:24
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MourningView posted:Ball has goofy mechanics but he can still reliably knock down shots if he's open which is still valuable. Rubio is a really bizarre comparison. I like Fox in the right situations. I'd take him on the Sixers.
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Mar 25, 2017 18:26
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This is like the draft of guys who would've had a lot easier time in the league ten years ago. Fox has like this amazing hand speed which makes him do some pretty crazy defensive things, but the NBA is a pick or screen league right now and there's just no way someone that size can fight through them. He's going to be one of the worst defenders in the league, and throw in bad shooting, and as fun as he is, poo poo is bleak for him. I dunno, maybe the fact that there's so many throwbacks entering the league, in a few years things will shift back in their direction out of necessity.
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Mar 25, 2017 18:32
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Rick and I already had an exchange about being terrified of Lonzo Ball for exactly the reason everyone saw last night. So I'm sorry the Lakers will end up with the third pick and draft him. His really smart passing will make some nice highlights though. He's more of a gamble than the athletic no skill centers and undersized pfs and the high skill medium athleticism medium length bigs later in the lottery. Dennis Smith isn't explosive, he's like a little hydraulic powered novelty man who shoots off the court and up to the rim. He's going to be an NBA bucket getter, and that will open up passing lanes, then he'll learn to be a pg, and in 3 years we'll laugh about how far he's going to slide in the lottery. All that handle that Ball doesn't have, Smith has, all the athleticism too. He's a good enough scorer that he'll figure out how to be at least an average 3p shooter. He has The Look when he's scoring. I like that he had the bravado to join a really lovely team with a random Turkish guy in hopes of making it the best NC team, even if it didn't work out because he doesn't make his teammates better and 0m3r Yurt7 didn't play well with him. Rick posted:This is like the draft of guys who would've had a lot easier time in the league ten years ago. Fox has like this amazing hand speed which makes him do some pretty crazy defensive things, but the NBA is a pick or screen league right now and there's just no way someone that size can fight through them. He's going to be one of the worst defenders in the league, and throw in bad shooting, and as fun as he is, poo poo is bleak for him. Yeah, so many FATALLY FLAWED guys, it's hard to see who'll shake out, so I'll just trust the length athleticism steals rubric. Josh Jackson is getting more athletic Jimmy Butler comparisons, but I think it's because Josh has consciously patterned himself after Jimmy Butler, they're both like 6'8 without extremely long arms. Jackson has more burst and more poppity pop. Jackson plays defense but Jimmy Butler was molded into a master defender by Tommy Thibodeau, but Jackson cares about defense, that's a good thing. I see him settling for fallaway midrange jumpers, and he makes them, but against NBA length, will he, if that's how you get most of your points in the NBA, you're really a superstar or bucket getting bench scorer only. He'll have to change the pattern of his game a bit. Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Mar 25, 2017 |
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Mar 25, 2017 18:37
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aBagorn posted:I like Fox in the right situations. I'd take him on the Sixers. He's an atrocious fit with our current roster. I see the intrigue in him to some degree but as a Sixer fan I want no part of him.
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Mar 25, 2017 19:21
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I honestly have no idea who the Sixers should draft if they don't get #1. Also, Dejan I have found myself super on the Dennis Smith bandwagon lately as well. It's like the lower people slot him in the media the higher I put him on my board. Rick fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Mar 26, 2017 |
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Mar 26, 2017 01:21
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Rick posted:I honestly have no idea who the Sixers should draft if they don't get #1. Ball or Jackson if it's 2-3. Monk, Tatum, or Ntilikina if they're in the 5-7 range.
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Mar 26, 2017 01:26
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Rick posted:I honestly have no idea who the Sixers should draft if they don't get #1. A defense with Embiid protecting the paint and Covington and Jackson guarding the wings, until Embiid's season ending injury, gets me excited.
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Mar 26, 2017 01:32
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Jordan Bell? More like Ben Wallace
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Mar 26, 2017 03:09
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More like Bill Russell
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Mar 26, 2017 03:15
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Redgrendel2001 posted:Ball or Jackson if it's 2-3. Monk, Tatum, or Ntilikina if they're in the 5-7 range. I'd take Smith or Fox over Monk, but yeah pretty much this. e: \/ yeah this is closer to the truth. they don't have any legit starter at 1-3 with the exception of maybe Covington if you value defense over everything else. It's almost a "can't miss" draft for them with the top 9 prospects being guards or wings aBagorn fucked around with this message at 15:22 on Mar 26, 2017 |
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Mar 26, 2017 04:32
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Rick posted:I honestly have no idea who the Sixers should draft if they don't get #1. They are literally filled with garbage at the 1-3 positions. they can draft almost anyone.
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Mar 26, 2017 12:16
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The Knicks have eight teams hovering around them. Nine games left with four of them against teams fighting for the playoffs and two of them fighting for playoff seeding. Give me Josh Jackson.
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Mar 26, 2017 19:12
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Doltos posted:The Knicks have eight teams hovering around them. Nine games left with four of them against teams fighting for the playoffs and two of them fighting for playoff seeding. they're going to win out just to gently caress with us
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Mar 26, 2017 19:37
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I didn't realize the Lakers pick could very easily turn into another Sixers pick if a couple of teams jump up. What happens if the Sixers get two top 5 picks?
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Mar 26, 2017 19:52
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2020 Sixers are great and Magic can't destroy the Lakers. Everyone wins. More specifically though, it's probably easier for the Sixers to draft someone like Monk who might have a pretty low ceiling but will probably be a decent reserve.
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Mar 26, 2017 20:50
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Spacebump posted:I didn't realize the Lakers pick could very easily turn into another Sixers pick if a couple of teams jump up. What happens if the Sixers get two top 5 picks? They draft two more guys who don't play for two years, trade Embiid for a sack of potatoes and max out Jahlil Okafor #trusthteprocess
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Mar 26, 2017 21:32
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C. Everett Koop posted:They draft two more guys who don't play for two years, trade Embiid for a sack of potatoes and max out Jahlil Okafor #trusthteprocess I think their decision to take Dario and let him develop over seas for two years worked out pretty well. Embiid is a risk you take every time.
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Mar 26, 2017 22:46
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Rick posted:2020 Sixers are great and Magic can't destroy the Lakers. Everyone wins. Yeah this. Though if I were running the draft board, and the Sixers got 2 top 6 picks I would still skip Monk and get the best PG and the best wing available on the board. E: or package one of the picks in a superstar deal
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Mar 26, 2017 22:58
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Someone in the NBA_Draft reddit is looking up Synergy stats if you have questions. He starts by detailing Lonzo Trier is the #2 P&R guy in the country. Which is cool but all the top pick and roll guys are not NBA prospects, hahah. So maybe the college P&R doesn't translate?
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Mar 28, 2017 03:47
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Rick posted:Someone in the NBA_Draft reddit is looking up Synergy stats if you have questions. He starts by detailing Lonzo Trier is the #2 P&R guy in the country. Which is cool but all the top pick and roll guys are not NBA prospects, hahah. So maybe the college P&R doesn't translate? Probably not because I imagine anyone that would be a credible threat in the NBA in the P&R can just beat their man and get to the basket in college regardless of any screen.
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Mar 28, 2017 05:42
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Not all the best college PNR guys are NBA guys, but all the NBA guys that were good at college PNR are good in the pros iirc
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Mar 28, 2017 06:52
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Which makes sense since it's not a dramatically different mechanic. It might be a moot point in Trier's case since at least today he seems to be strongly leaning towards coming back for his junior year, with the idea that a solid season and a draft that might be a bit weaker for wings next season will get him to the first round guaranteed money. There's even some chatter that Markkanen might stay, which seems insane. It's what his family at least is strongly pushing for.
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Mar 28, 2017 09:54
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I'd imagine you can be a great pnr player in college while being nowhere near an NBA athlete so that's probably why.
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Mar 28, 2017 14:31
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Somebody tell me I'm not crazy to think that a lot of Dennis Smith's issues can be fixed by nba coaching/a better supporting cast/giving a poo poo. Or is this me talking myself into him in case Philly doesn't get a top 3 pick?
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Mar 30, 2017 19:58
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Staying in school is stupid unless you are a proj 25+ pick with a weaker class next year. "But education!" You can pay for school with millions of $ if you flame out or when uou retire.
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Mar 30, 2017 22:55
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Ty1990 posted:Somebody tell me I'm not crazy to think that a lot of Dennis Smith's issues can be fixed by nba coaching/a better supporting cast/giving a poo poo. I tend to think so. You wouldn't be able to put so much pressure on him if you had shooters for him to pass to. The defense might take a long time I don't think it's hopeless. ButtWolf posted:Staying in school is stupid unless you are a proj 25+ pick with a weaker class next year. "But education!" You can pay for school with millions of $ if you flame out or when uou retire. I think the reason that Markkanen's family wanted him to stay was to establish life in this country which they were worried about. His family isn't poor which is part of the reason he went the college route instead of going European pro, so money wasn't the issue. But by most accounts he's been fine at assimilation and it was time for him to go out. Although man Arizona would have been loving stacked next season had his family prevailed.
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Mar 30, 2017 23:39
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wrong thread jesus christ
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Mar 31, 2017 01:19
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ButtWolf posted:Staying in school is stupid unless you are a proj 25+ pick with a weaker class next year. "But education!" You can pay for school with millions of $ if you flame out or when uou retire. To me it's always been go when your value is highest, so you can get as much as you can on that first contract. A guy who'd be a lower 1st rounder staying for a soph season in the hopes of moving into the lottery is always the example, but I always wonder if it'd be worth it for a late lottery-middle 1st guy to stay a year and try to get into the top 3, or if it's a case where if you're potentially lottery it's time to go.
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Mar 31, 2017 20:21
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Allegedly some of the players the Mavs are targeting include Fultz, Ball, Smith, and Ntilikina. I'm guessing Ntilikina is the most realistic player for the Mavs to get unless they move up. Where can I read too much about him?
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Mar 31, 2017 20:48
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Spacebump posted:Allegedly some of the players the Mavs are targeting include Fultz, Ball, Smith, and Ntilikina. I'm guessing Ntilikina is the most realistic player for the Mavs to get unless they move up. Where can I read too much about him? Draft express does a really good job covering Euro guys, I think
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Mar 31, 2017 21:26
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MourningView posted:Draft express does a really good job covering Euro guys, I think Specifically, check out the FIBA U18 tournament video from December.
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Mar 31, 2017 21:37
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Ty1990 posted:Somebody tell me I'm not crazy to think that a lot of Dennis Smith's issues can be fixed by nba coaching/a better supporting cast/giving a poo poo. Rick and I agree that this is the case. Philadelphia has 2 eventually good NBA starter caliber point forwards, so a scoring pg without great distributive instincts shouldn't be disruptive. Let him by the Kyrie to Saric or Gilles Bensimmons's Lebron. Redgrendel2001 posted:Specifically, check out the FIBA U18 tournament video from December. Ntilikina is sort of what they sold Dennis Schroeder as, despite Schroeder not being that and not ever showing it. That is to say, he's a very defensive minded player who actually will use his freakish arms to play tough d. Everything else is a work in progress, his quickness and athleticism aren't that impressive against Bundesliga players, so he might have a tough time. He's definitely more of a pure point in mindset, he doesn't want to attack the basket every time like Schroder and he cares about defense. His shot is improving but I don't know about it or his finishing against NBA length/speed. This is the reason he's falling to 10 or so in mocks, drafting him is drafting his body and defensive intensity and performance in u18, not his production in bundesliga or his athleticisms/elite skill. Defense first pgs who can guard both 1 and 2s can be valuable if they make threes. His ceiling on any team but the Mavericks is a very useful complimentary starter, like George Hill. On the Mavericks, with Carlisle, it's probably MVP
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Apr 1, 2017 00:35
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Dejan Bimble posted:
As a Mavericks fan, I've definitely upgraded my thoughts on him to "intrigued", based on the things I've read/watched. Though the Schroeder comps initially scared me all the way off.
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Apr 5, 2017 14:55
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I had a dream that the lottery went SAC->BRK->NOP->PHX->LAL And it was a perfect outcome in my mind.
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Apr 5, 2017 15:29
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Paul Zuvella posted:I had a dream that the lottery went SAC->BRK->NOP->PHX->LAL Is that ascending or descending order because I have some bad news for you if it's ascending.
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Apr 5, 2017 15:32
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