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YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Ehud posted:

I will be happy if we draft some combination of LB/DE/CB in the first two rounds.

I hear Peppers if very versatile. Maybe you can trade your first and second round picks to move up and take him and have him play all three.

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Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

big money big clit posted:

I hear Peppers if very versatile. Maybe you can trade your first and second round picks to move up and take him and have him play all three.

:q:

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

he had it right at "no mock draft is legit"

mock drafts are dumb but it's fun to speculate

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

quote:

open up the Chiefs' offense

quote:

Alex Smith
:laugh:

Yeah lets draft a WR so Alex Smith can pass for 3500 yards and 15 TD's.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

TBeats posted:

he had it right at "no mock draft is legit"

mock drafts are dumb but it's fun to speculate

They exist only to take advantage of football fans' desire to create what if scenarios.

fan of the browns
Apr 6, 2012


my enemy...
the enemy of every human who has ever lived...
this is the life-force that watches over the Dinosaurs.
God, the Browns are gonna draft Trubisky and I'm gonna be so mad.

Flikken
Oct 23, 2009

10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

fan of the browns posted:

God, the Browns are gonna draft Trubisky and I'm gonna be so mad.

You know they want a hometown guy to replace Bernie. They will always try and do this.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
Are you suggesting Frye wasn't there on his own merits

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

fan of the browns posted:

God, the Browns are gonna draft Trubisky and I'm gonna be so mad.

Yeah the official twitter is just highlights of Mitch. I'm betting on a trade up from 12 to ensure they get him. (duh Myles at 1)

Abugadu
Jul 12, 2004

1st Sgt. Matthews and the men have Procured for me a cummerbund from a traveling gypsy, who screeched Victory shall come at a Terrible price. i am Honored.
I'd be p happy if we get Cook where we're at, but I doubt he's available then. Knowing TT, we pick defense even if he's there, and grab a RB in the 2nd or 3rd.

ShakeZula
Jun 17, 2003

Nobody move and nobody gets hurt.

Reminder everyone, there are only a few teams left in the Goon Draft, so come on down and sign up. Teams remaining as of this post: Arizona, Denver, Giants, KC, and Atlanta

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!
One of the several other Chiefs posters here should sign up. I am unreliable.

Wiccan Wasteland
Oct 15, 2012

Diva Cupcake posted:

Kiper Mock 3.0

28.) Dallas Cowboys Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan
Wouldn't this be a Jerry Jones type of pick? Peppers is one of the most well-known prospects in this class, but he's a tweener (5-11, 213) who's polarizing to NFL scouts. The team that drafts him will have to get creative and use him as a hybrid safety who can play the run and cover tight ends. Peppers could also be a great return man. He's a tremendous athlete (4.46 40, 35.5-inch vertical). And Dallas' secondary has been depleted in free agency -- Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox are all gone.

Does Mel Kiper watch any games in the NFL at all? The skillset of Peppers is the exact same as Barry Church, who was extremely limited in coverage and was relegated to being a "Box Safety" and situational Linebacker in some cases. Also, constantly throwing out "Wouldn't this be a Jerry Jones thing" is getting kind of old when it's apparent that he does not run the day to day operations of the team anymore.

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.

Ehud posted:

I will be happy if we draft some combination of LB/DE/CB in the first two rounds.

Here's the earlier round prospects they've met with so far:

http://walterfootball.com/ProspectMeetings/ByTeam
Jonathan Allen, DT/3-4DE, Alabama (PRO)
O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama (COM)
Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (PRI)
Jordan Willis, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Kansas State (COM)
Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA (PRO)
Chris Wormley, DE/DT/3-4DE, Michigan (SR)

They met with almost everyone that they drafted before the later rounds last year, with the exception of Laremy Tunsil for obvious reasons. You can probably put together a rough draft board based on it.

Hamhandler fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Mar 23, 2017

Eltoasto
Aug 26, 2002

We come spinning out of nothingness, scattering stars like dust.



WR Noah Brown ran a 4.55 at OSU's pro day, I wonder if that will be good enough for someone to take a mid-late round flyer on a big (6-2, 222) WR. Didn't have a great year, but the passing offense was pretty dysfunctional overall.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Eltoasto posted:

WR Noah Brown ran a 4.55 at OSU's pro day, I wonder if that will be good enough for someone to take a mid-late round flyer on a big (6-2, 222) WR. Didn't have a great year, but the passing offense was pretty dysfunctional overall.

Word is that he showed incredible hands, but I think the most critical part will be his 10 yard split, since he just sucked at separating early and had some of the most preposterous route trees for someone with his skill set this year.

spankweasel
Jan 4, 2006

Today on one of Denver's Sports Talk Radio shows, Mark Schlereth (noted 10th round draft pick in 1989) commented that Super Bowl winning teams don't have a lot of first round picks on them. I thought that sounded odd, especially with free agency in play since forever so I looked back at the last 10 Super Bowls:

SB 51 (Patriots):
8 - Michael Floyd, Nate Solder, Chris Long, Malcom Brown, Shea McClellin, Barkevious Mingo, Dont'a Hightower, Devin McCourty

SB 50 (Broncos):
9 - Peyton Manning, Vernon Davis, Von Miller, Shane Ray, Bradley Roby, Aqib Talib, Demaryius Thomas, DeMarcus Ware, Sylvester Williams

SB 49 (Patriots):
5 - Chandler Jones, Nate Solder, Darrelle Revis, Dont'a Hightower, Devin McCourty

SB 48 (Seahawks):
6 - Marshawn Lynch, James Carpenter, Russell Okung, Bruce Irvin, Earl Thomas, Percy Harvin

SB 47 (Ravens):
8 - Joe Flacco, Ed Reed, Jimmy Smith, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Michael Oher, Bryant McKinnie, Haloti Ngata

SB 46 (Giants):
11 - Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Jason Pierre-Paul, Mathias Kiwanuka, Aaron Ross, Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle, Prince Amukamara, Michael Clayton, Jimmy Kennedy, Kenny Phillips

SB 45 (Packers):
9 - Aaron Rodgers, Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, Charles Woodson, Nick Barnett, Justin Harrell

SB 44 (Saints):
9 - Jeremy Shockey, Charles Grant, Will Smith, Sedrick Ellis, Jonathan Vilma, Reggie Bush, Malcolm Jenkins, Chris McAlister, Robert Meachem

SB 43 (Steelers):
11 - Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holms, Heath Miller, Casey Hampton, Troy Polamalu, Fernando Bryant, James Farrior, Byron Leftwich, Rashard Mendenahll, Kendall Simmons, Lawrence Timmons

SB 42 (Giants):
6 - Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Mathias Kiwanuka, Aaron Ross, R.W. McQuarters

SB 41 (Colts):
11 - Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Tarik Glenn, Dwight Freeney, Anthony McFarland, Joseph Addai, Marlin Jackson, Rob Morris

What does this say? It seems that defensive first rounders are more represented, other than the offensive comedy of Colts in SB 41. They had first round picks at every single offensive skill position. Other than that, I don't really know. 5-11 players on each team seems to not be that many but I don't know.

When I started this I was using Wikipedia and manually looking up each name. When I got to SB 46, I found http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/2011_roster.htm which made this considerably easier than looking things up one name at a time :downs: I'm sure a name or two got left out here and there.... Sorry.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!
Seems like it'd be hard to have much more than ~10 first round picks on a team unless you make a point to go sign failed first round picks from other teams (they'd have to mostly be failed because generally no one lets their stars walk).

Just spot checking the 2016 AFC West:
KC - 9
Oakland - 9
Denver - 9
San Diego - 7

I think we're overthinking a dumb Schlereth point that the bulk of every football team in the world is made up of guys who weren't taken in the first round of the draft.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
Texans
JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Nuk Hopkins, Duane Brown, Kareem Jackson, Johnathan Joseph, Will Fuller, Kevin Johnson, Brian Cushing, Brandon Weeden (lol), Jadeveon Clowney,

So that's 11 first round picks and they drafted all but Joseph and Weeden. So kudos on first round drafting prowess, :lol: at all the other rounds

I think Schlereth was in a roundabout way making a good point, that championship teams find players in later rounds

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The way I've viewed it is, the core of SB winning / competing teams are made up of players in like the 3rd-6th years of their careers. Guys with the experience and knowledge of the game, but without the crippling wear and tear. This also corresponds to cheap years on their rookie contracts, or their early big payday years, where they're still (typically) earning that money. (and also probably setup so their cap hits are smaller then they should be)

This is why GM's are typically overrated or underrated, because their reputation only comes to pass 2+ years after they actually drafted those guys, and drafting is enough witchcraft that nobody is consistently good at it, you tend to have good years and bad years, and if you have a good QB and string a few good drafts in a short period, hooray you get to hopefully win a Superbowl.

QB's are also kind of a side thing, because the better your QB, the more you can get away with on the rest of your roster

First round picks are of course the most important players, but if you had 2 first round picks every round from 2010-2014, and hit on every last one of them, you'd still probably have less then 10 first rounders on your roster, because a bunch of those guys left in free agency because you couldn't pay them.

But yeah, talent acquisition is what matters, it's just harder in the later rounds of the draft / UDFA's and free agency.

I'd love to see some work comparing big free agency signings and performance compared to 1st round draft picks. I did some vague work that just looked at pro bowls // AV vs obvious busts and saw the results were fairly similar between the two, but free agents are far more expensive with shorter payoffs (as expected).

ulmont
Sep 15, 2010

IF I EVER MISS VOTING IN AN ELECTION (EVEN AMERICAN IDOL) ,OR HAVE UNPAID PARKING TICKETS, PLEASE TAKE AWAY MY FRANCHISE

Kalli posted:

The way I've viewed it is, the core of SB winning / competing teams are made up of players in like the 3rd-6th years of their careers. Guys with the experience and knowledge of the game, but without the crippling wear and tear. This also corresponds to cheap years on their rookie contracts, or their early big payday years, where they're still (typically) earning that money. (and also probably setup so their cap hits are smaller then they should be)

Not coincidentally, the 2006 Saints draft class prior to the 2009 Super Bowl is uniformly considered to be their best of all time.

Kalli posted:

But yeah, talent acquisition is what matters, it's just harder in the later rounds of the draft / UDFA's and free agency.

EDIT: But not impossible - as many UDFA players last 10 years as second round players. Mind you, there are only 32-ish 2nd round draft picks and hundreds of UDFAs each year.
http://www.footballperspective.com/are-there-more-first-rounders-or-undrafted-free-agents-with-10-year-careers/

ulmont fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Mar 24, 2017

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
"Starters should all be 1st or 2nd round picks. Backups can be 3rd rounders and rookies."
-Cleveland Browns forum posters

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







Michael Corleone posted:

"Starters should all be 1st or 2nd round picks. Backups can be 3rd rounders and rookies."
-Cleveland Browns forum posters

Oh man StartDerekAndersonTrumpMAGA posts on the Browns forum too?

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
Draft selections shouldn't be viewed on a round to round basis. The NFL trade chart is based off of overall picks, not round.

Figuring out how NFL GMs value players isn't a mystery. It's a combination of on the field talent with combine results. Players invited to the combine are a result of on the field play so GMs already tick that box, then they grab them based off of test results and injury risks. Starters can appear anywhere at any time because every guy who's even being considered in the draft is either a former elite HS prospect or someone who grew into an elite athlete in college. The talent level difference is tenths of a second.

Saying X position needs to be taken in Y round is always narrow-minded.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
https://twitter.com/PatDStat/status/845472048755433473

That must be a rough name to have as a football player

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

that's pretty bad but it's no guy whimper

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Some of you draft nerds might find this interesting: http://www.domeafavre.com/2017/03/24/packers-big-board-2017/

quote:

Here is how the board was made:

I made a master list of every player drafted by the Packers since 2005, the first year Ted Thompson drafted a team for Green Bay. This list was sorted into position groups. This is the position the drafted player ended up playing, not what position they played in college. For example, Korey Hall is listed as a FB, even though he played LB in college.

Averages, Minimum, and Maximum values were calculated from the players’ combine measurables. I needed consistency in my numbers, so I only used information from the combine instead of pro days, which could be unreliable. These averages for each position were then applied to the numbers from the 2017 draft class.

Immediately removed all players that were over or under certain minimums or maximums. Ted Thompson has proven that he only drafts players with certain base measurables. For example, I removed every cornerback under 5’11, because Thompson hasn’t ever drafted a CB that is shorter than 5’11.

The drills were then evenly weighted and combined to make an aggregate.

The aggregate was created by taking the difference between the players’ scores and the Packers’ average score for that position. If the players’ score is better than the average, then score is a negative value and vice versa.

The farther the score is from 0, the farther the players’ measurables are from the packers norm.

Negative numbers are considered “better,” as they are under the average score for that position.

Some drills were omitted completely as they were deemed not needed (bench press for CB’s was one example.)

Players were placed in rounds based on their projections from nfldraftscout.com

The link is for the Packers, but I imagine other teams with similarly long histories at GM could do something like this.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
They sure don't like Gareon Conley.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
The Ringer has a new mock up

https://theringer.com/ringer-nfl-mock-draft-version-2-6917921551d6

Texans take Kizer at 25. Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

Hahaha Tabor ran like a 4.77 at our pro day

zimbomonkey
Jul 15, 2008

Tattoos? On MY black quarterback?
If fournette is available at the end of round 1 like in that mock the Panthers definitely trade up to get him. Guaranteed.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Mitchell Trubisky for the Bills NOOOOOOOO THANK YOU.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The Bills desire to move on from Tyrod is even more confusing then Washington's refusal to sign Cousins last season.

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

Teams get weird about QBs.

No Butt Stuff
Jun 10, 2004

Mahomes to the Chiefs.

I guess I'm coming around to the idea, but I still don't really like it.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

No Butt Stuff posted:

Mahomes to the Chiefs.

I guess I'm coming around to the idea, but I still don't really like it.

If it works down the road--it definitely won't work fast--it will really work. The odds of that aren't particular good though.

But really he would just have to win one game as a Chief at any point to get that damned Todd Blackledge stat off the books.

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

Wet
The Chargers are not taking a guard with the seventh overall pick. This mock draft (and indeed all mock drafts) belongs in a trash can with trash

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Kalli posted:

The Bills desire to move on from Tyrod is even more confusing then Washington's refusal to sign Cousins last season.

If you can't find a way to get Walt Powell involved, not sure you're a real pocket passer.

purkey
Dec 5, 2003

I hate the 90s

Intruder posted:

The Ringer has a new mock up

https://theringer.com/ringer-nfl-mock-draft-version-2-6917921551d6

Texans take Kizer at 25. Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Jags taking Watson at 4? :what:

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a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
A right guard at #7.

Yeah ok

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