Euro eulections

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vanity slug: Jul 20, 2010

u brexit ukip it posted:

There is still the PvdA option. They really like being in government and it's not like they have anything to lose at this point.

Jeoh posted:

e: wrt Dutch coalitions, PvdA membership just overwhelmingly (80%) voted against any coalition with the VVD, making VVD-CDA-D66-CU/GL much more likely.

# ? Mar 18, 2017 18:56

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:32

SixFigureSandwich: Oct 30, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Oh right, I missed that.

# ? Mar 18, 2017 19:06

Kurtofan: Feb 16, 2011; hon hon hon

confirmed: here are the 11 candidates for this year's presidential election (they had to get at least 500 signatures from elected officials each)

im not doing a big write up because theyre all loving bad

from left to right, top to bottom

-natalie arthaud, workers' struggle, far left

workers struggle is one of those revolutionary trotskyist party nobody vote for

-fran�ois asselineau, popular republican union, cooky

really popular with conspiracy types, thinks the media are against him, when in fact they just dont give a gently caress, claims to be the most popular party in france because his website got 2 million views or somescuh, wants "frexit "(his words) from eu, nato etc

-jacques cheminade, solidariy and progress, cooky

AGAIN this guy, third time he's candidate, more than any other candidates this year, his party is tied to the American LaRouche movement (conspiracy theory guys about the Queen, i dunno), famously wants to colonize the moon haha democracy is a joke.

-nicolas dupont aignan, rise up france!, right wing

small town mayor with a big eurosceptic streak, was allied with farage in the european parliament at one point, pretty much lepen light.

-Crooked Fran�ois Fillon, the republicans, right wing
the future ex-president de la r�publique won big at the right wing primaries but the FAKE NEWS media and the COMMUNIST judges can't accept that and invented this whole story about him giving a lot of public money to his wife for a fake job. instead of resigning like he probably should have he doubled down because his base is crazy. Big time lover of traditional marriage, slashing public spending (lol) and russia

-Benoit Hamont, socialist party, center-left
won the left wing primaries in a bit of an upset to the "socialist" establishement, benoit is a bit in a bind because his socialist buddies prefer the centrist macron while melenchon didnt want to drop down everything to help unify the left (such as it is). the left is hosed hosed hosed. at least benoit is kind of cool guy? big love of universal income and taxing the robots.

-Jean lassale, independent, centre right
originally a member of parliament for the democratic movement (which supports macron this year), lassalle decided to run because why not?? I think he's basque or something. seems to be running on a platform of traditional rural centrist but nobody cares

-Marine le pen, national front, far right

LE PEN *click*

wants to save western civilization from the eu, islam, loves putin, trump etc.. etc... pretty much certain to finish first of the first round, she's probably going to lose in the second because still seen as too fascist (for now?).

-Emmanuel Macron, on the move!, center

the luckiest son of a bitch in france imo, this beautiful banker is bag full of hot air responsible for some of the most disliked policies of the hollande goverment yet is leading the polls?? i guess he's got a modicum of charisma, his only saving graces and also the fact that his only real adversaries are a fascist and a deluded crooked politician. neoliberalism last hope

-Jean-Luc M�lenchon, Unsubdued France, left wing

M�lenchon is back with a vengeance and a newly named coalition of small left wing parties and the communist party. does a lot of weird poo poo like holograms at rallies and he has quite the following, he doesn't like the us very much but loves russia so the current situation must be weird rn for him. the french chavez (lol), he wants to usher in the sixth republic. the left is doomed because he and hamon weren't able to come to an agreement

-philippe poutou, New anticapitalist party, far left

perfect way to book-end this list is another revolutionary troskyist candidate because two is better than one, no? this guys is an actual factory worker, that's all i know. i think he's popular at my uni, so thats something but he's probably going to do one percent, so yeah

# ? Mar 19, 2017 00:24

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

Ideology aside, the problem with CU is that such a coalition would have the absolute bare minimum majority in both houses. Groenlinks would offer stronger margins. So fingers crossed for a "Groenrechts" coalition.

twoday has issued a correction as of 11:24 on Mar 19, 2017

# ? Mar 19, 2017 11:21

Philonius: Jun 12, 2005

twoday posted:

Ideology aside, the problem with CU is that such a coalition would have the absolute bare minimum majority in both houses. Groenlinks would offer stronger margins. So fingers crossed for a "Groenrechts" coalition.

That would actually be nice. I'd like a government with greater care for the environment than the VVD is likely to bring, but without some of the batshit insane economic policy that Groenlinks has been advocating. I mean, the world definately should stop burning coal, but unilaterally shutting down coal/oil/gas terminals in Rotterdam harbor will just tank the economy, while the rest of the world merrily carries on loving over the climate.

# ? Mar 19, 2017 12:56

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

And a strong role by d66 would help mediate the arguments between VVD and GL, though I imagine the negotiations would take a while, and I bet Jesse Klaver would be full of swagger and annoying as gently caress to negotiate with. It seems unlikely, but it's the best possibility, I think.

# ? Mar 19, 2017 15:20

Namarrgon: Dec 23, 2008; Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

GL and D66 together clamping down the worst parts of liberal lunacy would be a best realistic case scenario given the election outcome.

# ? Mar 19, 2017 15:22

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

The aquamarine coalition

# ? Mar 19, 2017 15:24

oliwan: Jul 20, 2005; by Nyc_Tattoo

D66 is a neoliberal party ffs, they are no better than the VVD.

# ? Mar 19, 2017 15:36

Martin BadClixx: Jul 14, 2012; ^{dada stijl}

Namarrgon posted:

Party overview;
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3795723&userid=144674#post470251212

Dutch Elections; outcome

So after a few days of drinking my sorrow away, it is time to show our foreign friends the results from the election last week. The good news; it is not worst case scenario. The bad news; we voted for the liberal status quo.

So again, there are 150 seats in parliament. The government is determined by a coalition of parties that together have at least 76 seats, but they'll aim for more just to be on the safe side. There's also a senate, but we'll leave that out for simplicity. Coalition negotiation is a whole separate topic off itself and can last anywhere between a few days to a hundred days or more. Elections determined that there will be 13 parties with seats in parliament.

So to recap; the current exiting government is VVD-PvdA (liberal-labour). From the votes, it seems that any majority coalition is going to need at least 4 different parties, which is insane and an almost guarantee this government is not going to make it 4 years.

So first things first, the Dutch Trump (Geert Wilders; PVV) did not become the largest party. This is great, because it means there is no negotiation pressure to give him an actual position in government. Apparently this was international news. Now if the PVV was of similar size as the VVD but slightly smaller, it is likely they would be invited by the VVD for talks. But as it stands, there are alternative choices here (CDA or D66) of similar size. In short; PVV will stay an opposition party and rant and rave about Muslims for at least another election cycle.

Second, the PvdA was absolutely gutted. Traditionally, it has been one of the consistently larger parties in Dutch politics, together with VVD and CDA. The PvdA, as a labour party, is perceived to have given in too much to liberal VVD. They also had their internal civil war where they ditched charismatic handsome Samsom for who-is-that-again? Asscher. Currently at 9 seats following last week, this is the lowest they have ever been and there have already been resignation. Probably did not help that even old PvdA ministers went on tv saying they were definitely not voting PvdA.

GroenLinks went through the opposite. They went from a large minor party to a decidedly medium-sized party and this is the largest they've ever been. Mostly thanks to their charismatic leader.

Although VVD is (still) the largest, it has to be taken in relative terms; they lost nearly a quarter of their seats. Mark Rutte will still be prime minster of course, which means a broad continuation of neoliberal policy, minus anything the other coalition parties will be able to negotiate for.

PvdD roughly doubled, although is still a minor party. Same for 50+.

DENK is a newcomer. A split-off party from PvdA, they focus mostly on Turkish-Dutch citizens. Being so new, it is difficult to estimate how they will actually behave because as we know political rhetoric is extremely unreliable. At face value, their program is not bad at all, though they are criticized as a proxy-party for Turkey/Erdogan, as a majority of Dutch Turks are pro-Erdogan.

Forum for Democracy (FvD) is a complete newcomer. Not a split-off as it the Dutch custom, but a result of an actual grassroots movement. It is unfortunate that they are alt-right redpillers. Not kidding.

What now?

Now we enter the tedious coalition negotiation process. Again; it seems there is no possible scenario with less than 4 parties, which is impractical at best. This is a vastly complex topic that encompasses leadership personalities, histories between the parties and ideologies that I won't go into in full detail, but just mention a few.

The most likely coalition now seems to be VVD-CDA-D66-X, where X is either PvdA or CU (intense christians). VVD and CDA would be natural allies, as CDA has been strongly indicating a more right turn, though there are rumours of personality clashes between the parties. D66 is much more progressive than CDA, but it seems like the only realistic option if the goal is to exclude PVV from government. SP is not going to join the coalition for sure and it would seem unwise for GroenLinks to do so, unless they want to get gutted like PvdA was. On the contrary PvdA would almost certainly kiss the VVD's shiny shoes for the scraps of a near-irrelevant ministry or two. CU might be convinced as an alternative for some token concessions like the government opposing euthanasia for the elderly.

I guess that means that we (the Dutch) will occasionally update this thread with major developments and when a government is finally formed. But it is not unrealistic the negotiations will last beyond the French elections at least, which is likely going to be the main focus of this thread.

I want to add that GL is also an option for the coalition. It would give more room in both houses. It does really depend on the major topics the upcoming government wants to adress.

Second, CU is actually a kinda social Christian party. Not the 'gently caress you got mine type' but they actually want to help the poor etc. Downside is that it is from a strict religious background, so pro life etc.

Third, i am pleasently surprised with the results. If anyone was expecting something better, lol

Edit: but a very good overview. GJ

# ? Mar 19, 2017 21:37

Martin BadClixx: Jul 14, 2012; ^{dada stijl}

oliwan posted:

D66 is a neoliberal party ffs, they are no better than the VVD.

Bel me maar als de revolutie begint

# ? Mar 19, 2017 21:43

Fallen Hamprince: Nov 12, 2016

so apparently the guy who attacked the cop at d'Orly was was high as balls on alcohol, weed and cocaine which is one way to get to paradise i guess

# ? Mar 20, 2017 02:39

Kurtofan: Feb 16, 2011; hon hon hon

Fallen Hamprince posted:

so apparently the guy who attacked the cop at d'Orly was was high as balls on alcohol, weed and cocaine which is one way to get to paradise i guess

radical

# ? Mar 20, 2017 08:42

Philonius: Jun 12, 2005

Have you ever waged jihad..... on weed?

# ? Mar 20, 2017 12:28

Bear Retrieval Unit: Nov 5, 2009; Mudslide Experiment

Philonius posted:

Have you ever waged jihad..... on weed?

Jeff Sessions is doing it right now.

# ? Mar 20, 2017 13:04

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

Everyone is so sassy and sharp on Monday mornings

# ? Mar 20, 2017 14:00

pinkacidbootson: Apr 8, 2011; Fun Shoe

Latest poll before the first debate tonight, which includes only the 5 main candidates:

The percentage of people asked who are 'sure of their voting intention' for each candidate:

Hamon 46%
Macron 51%
Fillon 53%
M�lenchon 57%
Le Pen 75%

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/presidentielle-macron-et-le-pen-au-coude-a-coude-hamon-decroche-1125327.html

Macron continuing to benefit from the shambles on the left and the right. Le Pen hasn't got much space to expand either.

# ? Mar 20, 2017 18:53

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

It's happening!!!

They are trying to form Groenrechts

# ? Mar 21, 2017 15:22

NihilismNow: Aug 31, 2003

Femke Halsema was liberal of the year in 2006 and Rutte wrote his Groenrechts pamphlet in 2008 so really it is long overdue. Embrace liberalism and face to bloodshed.

# ? Mar 21, 2017 18:46

Fallen Hamprince: Nov 12, 2016

Major development in the Fillon merdestorm. For those who don't speak French, the Fillons have now been accused by the National Financial Prosecutor's office of "escroquerie aggrav�e, faux et usage de faux", which if my high-school level French is correct means something like "aggravated fraud, forgery and usage of forgeries". The charges relate to inconsistencies in Penelope Fillon's time sheets when she was 'working' for her husband, investigators suspect the time sheets were falsified. I don't understand enough about the French legal system to really know but that sounds like it greatly increases the chances of one or both of the Fillons going to big boy jail.

# ? Mar 22, 2017 05:14

The Brown Menace: Dec 24, 2010; Now comes in all colors.

BUT HER TIMESHEETS

# ? Mar 22, 2017 09:19

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

Everytime I hear about Francois Fillon, I think about Francois Villon, the medieval French rapper.

# ? Mar 22, 2017 11:39

vanity slug: Jul 20, 2010

Wilders is being a little bitch about "MILLIONS OF PVV VOTERS BEING SILENCED" and now Schipper is going all "ya work something out and go full hitler again"

https://twitter.com/DenhartogT/status/844493898982588416

# ? Mar 22, 2017 12:03

Fallen Hamprince: Nov 12, 2016

Somebody stabbed a cop at the UK Parliament, looks like Corbyn finally snapped.

# ? Mar 22, 2017 16:29

Zikan: Feb 29, 2004

someone knocked over his prize jar of jam i see

# ? Mar 22, 2017 17:00

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

Fallen Hamprince posted:

Somebody stabbed a cop at the UK Parliament, looks like Corbyn finally snapped.

As of March 29th we will start the two year process of negotiations to remove this post from this thread.

# ? Mar 22, 2017 18:46

Fallen Hamprince: Nov 12, 2016

twoday posted:

As of March 29th we will start the two year process of negotiations to remove this post from this thread.

I oppose this move in principle but accept that it is the will of the posters, and will pressure the mods to ensure the best possible deal for them.

# ? Mar 22, 2017 19:32

Baloogan: Dec 5, 2004; Fun Shoe

invokin' article 69

ooooh yeah

# ? Mar 24, 2017 07:33

Fallen Hamprince: Nov 12, 2016

current labour status: EVERYTHING IS FINE

https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/847034268144558080

# ? Mar 29, 2017 11:40

Condiv: May 7, 2008; Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod

Fallen Hamprince posted:

current labour status: EVERYTHING IS FINE

https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/847034268144558080

Labor officials should probably stop intentionally stabbing their leader so they might be able to win, but then again centrists would rather lose to a fascist than let a leftist have any power

# ? Mar 29, 2017 16:06

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

Fallen Hamprince posted:

current labour status: EVERYTHING IS FINE

https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/847034268144558080

corbyn is ridiculously bad at leading labour

# ? Mar 29, 2017 16:24

Fallen Hamprince: Nov 12, 2016

Condiv posted:

Labor officials should probably stop intentionally stabbing their leader so they might be able to win, but then again centrists would rather lose to a fascist than let a leftist have any power

Great Corbyn would be fantastically popular if it weren't for those traitorous ~~shadow cabinet members~~ ~~MPs~~ voters

# ? Mar 29, 2017 16:50

Forums Terrorist: Dec 8, 2011

name who replaces corbyn

give specific names

# ? Mar 29, 2017 17:45

Forums Terrorist: Dec 8, 2011

because everyone else in labour is even more hopeless than he is, as shown by 2010 and 2015

# ? Mar 29, 2017 17:46

Condiv: May 7, 2008; Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod