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Will Perez force the dems left? This poll is closed. |
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| Yes |
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33 | 6.38% |
| No |
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343 | 66.34% |
| Keith Ellison |
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54 | 10.44% |
| Pete Buttigieg |
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71 | 13.73% |
| Jehmu Green |
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16 | 3.09% |
| Total: | 416 votes | ||
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JeffersonClay posted:Democrats should be pushing for the expansion of the welfare state. Programs like medicaid definitely help minorities (that's why they're vulnerable to the Southern Strategy). But there's no evidence whatsoever that the reason democrats lost this election, and former democratic supporters flipped to Trump, has anything to do with the size and scope of the welfare state that democrats were advocating. Well, you don't need evidence if you've already settled on an explanation before having any. Once you have your explanation, about how it was the devil herself, Hillary Clinton, then everything can become evidence if you're creative enough. Eat a mushy pear? This is why Hillary lost. Bernie would have eliminated bad produce.
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Mar 30, 2017 02:59
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Frijolero posted:Except there's no evidence that a majority of Trump voters were motivated by racism, and good evidence that they were motivated by Clinton being dogshit. Hey that's also why there was less turnout in parts of Michigan. https://www.google.com/amp/www.mlive.com/articles/19635829/detroit_flint_voting_muscle_we.amp Its funny effectronica demands evidence as all they do is pull everything out of their rear end.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:02
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JeffersonClay posted:Democrats should be pushing for the expansion of the welfare state. Programs like medicaid definitely help minorities (that's why they're vulnerable to the Southern Strategy). But there's no evidence whatsoever that the reason democrats lost this election, and former democratic supporters flipped to Trump, has anything to do with the size and scope of the welfare state that democrats were advocating. There is certainly evidence, however, that former Obama supporters flipped to Trump, because they felt they had a better chance at economic relief for their communities under Trump, than under Clinton. That is the argument you are facing.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:05
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey that's also why there was less turnout in parts of Michigan. https://www.google.com/amp/www.mlive.com/articles/19635829/detroit_flint_voting_muscle_we.amp Hm, and this wouldn't have anything to do with rampant GOP-sponsored voter suppression? That's not a tried and true Republican tactic, because they don't like know explicitly that reducing turnout esp. POC turnout favors them or anything. 🤔
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Mar 30, 2017 03:07
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stone cold posted:Not only that, but doesn't this data show us that we should be appealing to the people who didn't bother to vote rather than these racists? It seems very unlikely that they're ever coming back. This is just the last shoe to drop in the realignment that LBJ started. Majorian posted:The data you're citing is from before the election, and as you yourself have admitted, its conclusion about turnout was quite wrong. So I'm having trouble taking this Salon piece more seriously than Cohn's more up-to-date analysis. I don't care about the conclusion, I care about the data in those graphs and I wanted to cite them appropriately. I guess you're trying to argue that there's no correlation between liking Trump and actually voting for him? That seems pretty implausible. Is this the Cohn analysis you're referencing? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html?_r=0 If so, it doesn't dispute any of the argument I'm making. Majorian posted:There is certainly evidence, however, that former Obama supporters flipped to Trump, because they felt they had a better chance at economic relief for their communities under Trump, than under Clinton. That is the argument you are facing. There may well be evidence of that, but it hasn't been posted in this thread. The polling data I referenced does not support the conclusion that Obama to Trump voters were primarily motivated by desire for economic relief-- it indicates that their support for Trump was about racial animosity. JeffersonClay fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Mar 30, 2017 |
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Mar 30, 2017 03:06
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stone cold posted:Hm, and this wouldn't have anything to do with rampant GOP-sponsored voter suppression? Which was not in place in Michigan till after the election. Also lol @ jc admitteing to misunderstanding data.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:08
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey that's also why there was less turnout in parts of Michigan. https://www.google.com/amp/www.mlive.com/articles/19635829/detroit_flint_voting_muscle_we.amp Michigan has extensive voter suppression, including a hideously evil Voter ID law. gently caress you, you Nazi shitbird. Crowsbeak posted:Which was not in place in Michigan till after the election. You understand nothing about anything, you fascist pusbag. Your parents ought to be prosecuted for turning out such a dismal failure as you.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:09
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JeffersonClay posted:
No, what I'm arguing is that working with a small sample size, and not differentiating between Obama-to-Trump voters in one region, of one socioeconomic class, versus another, doesn't tell us as much as you think it does.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:09
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Brainiac Five posted:Michigan has extensive voter suppression, including a hideously evil Voter ID law. gently caress you, you Nazi shitbird. It was passed after the election, drama queen.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:10
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Crowsbeak posted:It was passed after the election, drama queen. Voter ID laws already existed. Your fellow Nazis tightened them up with glee after the election. Keep talking down to people who live in the state you're talking about, I'm reloading hahaha.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:12
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Brainiac Five posted:Voter ID laws already existed. Your fellow Nazis tightened them up with glee after the election. Keep talking down to people who live in the state you're talking about, I'm reloading hahaha. You're reloading what? Also want people to vote dem? Dont be a drama queen its rath unbecoming.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:14
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Majorian posted:No, what I'm arguing is that working with a small sample size, and not differentiating between Obama-to-Trump voters in one region, of one socioeconomic class, versus another, doesn't tell us as much as you think it does. I eagerly await the data supporting your counter-narrative. Crowsbeak posted:Also lol @ jc admitteing to misunderstanding data. Back to (intentional?) reading comprehension failures I see.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:15
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Crowsbeak posted:You're reloading what? Also want people to vote dem? Dont be a drama queen its rath unbecoming. I guess this is an implicit admission you were wrong while blubbering about t-t-tone. Hey, are you a Goering Nazzy or a Goebbels Nawzi?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:15
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JeffersonClay posted:I eagerly await the data supporting your counter-narrative. Hey you admitted you didn't care the conclusions went against your hilariously wrong claims. Also so has it been five pages of effectronica calling everyone nazis?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:18
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JeffersonClay posted:There may well be evidence of that, but it hasn't been posted in this thread. The polling data I referenced does not support the conclusion that Obama to Trump voters were primarily motivated by desire for economic relief-- it indicates that their support for Trump was about racial animosity. Actually, the data you posted lists trade policy, raising the minimum wage, and narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor as key issues for these voters as well. So once again, saying that support for Trump "was about racial animosity" is overly reductivist. Also, again, maybe this guy isn't the data analyst you want to be pinning your argument to: quote:What should Democrats take away from this election? The focus on voters who shifted from Obama to Trump is a distraction. They are certainly important, but Trump was far more effective at getting non-voters and lapsed voters out than he was at converting Obama voters.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:19
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It be nice to hear effectronica stone cold and jc explaining how they are going to get registered voters who don't vite to vote.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:21
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey you admitted you didn't care the conclusions went against your hilariously wrong claims. Also so has it been five pages of effectronica calling everyone nazis? I'm calling you a Nazi, because thanks to a dalliance with the Queen of Elfland where seven years passed in a single night I am only able to speak the truth. Majorian posted:Actually, the data you posted lists trade policy, raising the minimum wage, and narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor as key issues for these voters as well. So once again, saying that support for Trump "was about racial animosity" is overly reductivist. Do his conclusions pollute our precious bodily fluids and render the raw data inexact? Is there no depth to which the slime of the Bernies won't sink?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:21
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Crowsbeak posted:It be nice to hear effectronica stone cold and jc explaining how they are going to get registered voters who don't vite to vote. I don't know what "viting" is, does it have anything to do with viticulture?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:22
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Brainiac Five posted:I don't know what "viting" is, does it have anything to do with viticulture? How will you get registered voters who do not vote to vote. Also the only nazi thing I want is more highways.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:23
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Brainiac Five posted:Do his conclusions pollute our precious bodily fluids and render the raw data inexact? No, the raw data he's basing his argument off of is simply extremely limited, and the conclusions he's drawing from them are pretty dumb.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:24
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Crowsbeak posted:How will you get registered voters who do not vote to vote. Bake sales. Promising to shoot those young'uns who kept whining "Bernie would have won" at the Thanksgiving table. Attacking state-level voter suppression. Using the increasingly likely chance of Democratic control of Congress and the Presidency after 2020 to mandate election day as the first paid federal holiday in American history. Reviving good honest machine politics. Majorian posted:No, the raw data he's basing his argument off of is simply extremely limited, and the conclusions he's drawing from them are pretty dumb. What do his conclusions have to do with an argument based on the raw data?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:26
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Yeah machine politics was a disaster. Also Saint Bernard would have won and implemented full communism.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:28
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Crowsbeak posted:Yeah machine politics was a disaster. Also Saint Bernard would have won and implemented full communism. Okay, so you have no reply beyond parroting like an especially stupid mynah bird. Can I call the local zoo to have you picked up as a rescue animal? Your owner must surely count as abusive if he's teaching you Nazi theory.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:30
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Brainiac Five posted:What do his conclusions have to do with an argument based on the raw data? Again, it's a small data set that doesn't make any distinctions between regions, economic classes, etc. It's a poor use of data no matter which way you slice it.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:34
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Crowsbeak posted:Which was not in place in Michigan till after the election. sorry you can't read, dear quote:Poll workers in Michigan incorrectly told voters that they needed to show identification to vote. While Michigan does have a voter ID law, it does not require an ID to vote; instead, voters have the option of filling out an affidavit swearing to their identity. There are no hard data on how many Michigan voters were improperly turned away for lacking an ID.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:34
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Brainiac Five posted:Okay, so you have no reply beyond parroting like an especially stupid mynah bird. Can I call the local zoo to have you picked up as a rescue animal? Your owner must surely count as abusive if he's teaching you Nazi theory. Hey if he'd won we would be collectivizing the firm you work at right now. Also voter suppression affects elections by 2% . The fact dems have been falling in turnout in those states comes from lack of engagement not those laws.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:34
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Majorian posted:Again, it's a small data set that doesn't make any distinctions between regions, economic classes, etc. It's a poor use of data no matter which way you slice it. What do his conclusions have to do with an argument based on the raw data? You're refusing to answer this very simple question and it would be easier, for anyone with a soul, to admit you hosed up and move on. But you won't do that, will you Majorian? If you show weakness AshleyMadison.com wins. Crowsbeak posted:Hey if he'd won we would be collectivizing the firm you work at right now. Okay? Are you suggesting I'd be killed, or are you suggesting I own the company I work for (lmao), or are you simply a tattered wretch that's worse at presenting humanity than most chatbots? Crowsbeak posted:Also voter suppression affects elections by 2% . The fact dems have been falling in turnout in those states comes from lack of engagement not those laws. I didn't know that r/the_donald had talking points prepared on this already. You guys, not that I mean to imply your lives have any value, work fast. Brainiac Five fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Mar 30, 2017 |
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Mar 30, 2017 03:35
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey if he'd won we would be collectivizing the firm you work at right now. That surely would have zero impact in an election decided by 77k votes! 
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Mar 30, 2017 03:39
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stone cold posted:That surely would have zero impact in an election decided by 77k votes! Didn't help. But then it should not have been that close as the fact the deme have as i know from relatives who live all over Michigan. No voter engagement.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:40
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey you admitted you didn't care the conclusions went against your hilariously wrong claims. Also so has it been five pages of effectronica calling everyone nazis? The conclusion of the piece was "these graphs don't matter because turnout was more important than flippers" which we now know is wrong. I guess I shouldn't be surprised about your failures of reading comprehension anymore, though. Majorian posted:Actually, the data you posted lists trade policy, raising the minimum wage, and narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor as key issues for these voters as well. So once again, saying that support for Trump "was about racial animosity" is overly reductivist. What that shows is most obama supporters were concerned about those issues, that's not surprising. What we care about in that graph are the issues where there's a substantial difference between support for Clinton and trump among former obama voters who agree with the issue. Fewer former obama supporters who now support trump want to increase the minimum wage and reduce inequality than Obama supporters who support Clinton. So unless you're arguing that these people flipped to Trump because they opposed raising the minimum wage and reducing inequality, that argument fails. Trade policy makes sense, but the third graph shows that opposition to free trade was far less correlated to positive trump opinion than racial animosity. quote:Also, again, maybe this guy isn't the data analyst you want to be pinning your argument to: I addressed that when I posted it originally. That assertion is wrong, as we now know. I guess Crowsbeak isn't alone here.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:41
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Remind me, please, somebody, what 2% of 130 million~ is?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:41
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Crowsbeak posted:Didn't help. But then it should not have been that close as the fact the deme have as i know from relatives who live all over Michigan. No voter engagement. Really? Please tell me where your relatives live. Do you have their social security numbers handy?
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Mar 30, 2017 03:41
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Brainiac Five posted:What do his conclusions have to do with an argument based on the raw data? The raw data sample size is small, and it turns out it was inaccurate. It's not a very compelling argument, sorry.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:41
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I'm still eagerly awaiting the better data that will prove me wrong.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:42
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Turnout was down in those states and your Abuela didn't engage in it. You n fact when receiving warnings she ignored them. Hey look i get it more turnout means a less pro rich dem party and you're a greedy sociopath.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:43
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By the by, 2% of the people voting in Michigan in 2016 would be about 91,000 people. Trump won by less than 11,000 votes in Michigan. Majorian posted:The raw data sample size is small, and it turns out it was inaccurate. It's not a very compelling argument, sorry. Why did you bring up his conclusions to smear the interpretation based on the raw data, you weasel? Brainiac Five fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Mar 30, 2017 |
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Mar 30, 2017 03:44
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Crowsbeak posted:Turnout was down in those states and your Abuela didn't engage in it. You n fact when receiving warnings she ignored them. Hey look i get it more turnout means a less pro rich dem party and you're a greedy sociopath. This post is gibberish but I think you're calling me rich and refusing to tell me the locations of your fellow Nazi cloning experiments. Not a good look for you.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:45
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Crowsbeak posted:Turnout was down in those states and your Abuela didn't engage in it. You n fact when receiving warnings she ignored them. Hey look i get it more turnout means a less pro rich dem party and you're a greedy sociopath. C-SPAM is calling.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:45
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Brainiac Five posted:Really? Please tell me where your relatives live. Do you have their social security numbers handy? Detroit,Alma,Battle Creek, Lansing, near Traverse, and Marquetee. Also braniac Michigan doesn't have a population that large. JeffersonClay posted:C-SPAM is calling. Crowsbeak fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Mar 30, 2017 |
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Mar 30, 2017 03:46
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Crowsbeak posted:Detroit,Alma,Battle Creek, Lansing, near Traverse, and Marquetee. I need street addresses, SSNs, credit card numbers, and ha ha holy poo poo, Alma? loving Alma? You must be one of the whitest people on the face of the planet. Anyways, I'm amazed you can do math.
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Mar 30, 2017 03:49
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