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xthetenth
Dec 30, 2012

Mario wasn't sure if this Jeb guy was a good influence on Yoshi.

Sperglord posted:

Trump attacked Smart Commentators when it suited him, running for office mainly. Now, in office and beset by a thousand political problems, praise from Smart Commentators might sound awfully alluring. The domestic policy died with the Obamacare fiasco, so why not look abroad for praise and approval?

I mainly base it off a low opinion if Trump's internal consistency and his desire to appear tough at all times.

Also, the drone attack is brilliant. Which reminds me, I don't actually believe the Saudis when they say they intercepted all the Houthis ballistic missiles. Given the total incompetence of the rest of the Saudi military, I don't believe their missile forces are magically much more competent.

And, fixed patriot missile batteries are asking for sabotage or a highly maneuverable RV aimed at a fixed point.

You might be able to argue that the missile troops are somewhat protected from the more effectiveness draining forms of control and ensuring reliability, but that sort of tradeoff is corrosive.

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Sperglord
Feb 6, 2016

xthetenth posted:

You might be able to argue that the missile troops are somewhat protected from the more effectiveness draining forms of control and ensuring reliability, but that sort of tradeoff is corrosive.

The missile troops might be foreign contractors / under near direct control of foreign contractors. In that case, I would expect high performance. But, based on the rest of the Saudi military performance, one has to be cautious about taking everything at face value.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Sperglord posted:

Trump attacked Smart Commentators when it suited him, running for office mainly. Now, in office and beset by a thousand political problems, praise from Smart Commentators might sound awfully alluring. The domestic policy died with the Obamacare fiasco, so why not look abroad for praise and approval?

I mainly base it off a low opinion if Trump's internal consistency and his desire to appear tough at all times.

Also, the drone attack is brilliant. Which reminds me, I don't actually believe the Saudis when they say they intercepted all the Houthis ballistic missiles. Given the total incompetence of the rest of the Saudi military, I don't believe their missile forces are magically much more competent.

And, fixed patriot missile batteries are asking for sabotage or a highly maneuverable RV aimed at a fixed point.

Saudi air defense is actually its own separate branch and is generally regarded as the elite of their military. I will leave it to the individual to determine what he/she thinks "elite" is in the context of the Saudi military.

xthetenth
Dec 30, 2012

Mario wasn't sure if this Jeb guy was a good influence on Yoshi.

bewbies posted:

Saudi air defense is actually its own separate branch and is generally regarded as the elite of their military. I will leave it to the individual to determine what he/she thinks "elite" is in the context of the Saudi military.

That opens the possibility of being structured in such a way that they can be competent, I think. Also I think missile defense probably involves education and training that might let them use that as a means of getting them to be loyal to the status quo rather than the more institutionally damaging methods that armies see, somewhat analogously to the Egyptian use of the state bureaucracy to guarantee jobs for college graduates.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/850386466207387649

So I guess the question is did Russian air defenses shoot them down or did the TLAMs just break?

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

I imagine most were shot down. In 1999 many were nailed by manpads supposedly in flight. Outright falling from the sky onto a beach etc doesn't seem likely.

We'll just have to wait and see :(

Sperglord
Feb 6, 2016

hobbesmaster posted:

https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/850386466207387649

So I guess the question is did Russian air defenses shoot them down or did the TLAMs just break?

We need pictures first of the missiles, but if this was the first major employment of TACTOMs, then high unreliability wouldn't be too surprising.

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye


I'm glad to see a real life example of sagging landing gear as opposed to one of my models

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

*Autistic nasal snort*

I'm the obvious nose section of a destroyed Su-22 that was reported by the Russian MoD as a MiG-23.

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

This comes from Foxtrot Alpha

but

they are reporting that the strike *deliberately avoided* the Sarin store, as to limit casualties in Russian and Syrian personnel.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Wait were there Russian casualties? Because even for Russia signing off on the bombing of a couple of your dudes as the cost of doing business seems kinda cold.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?
You clearly need to read up more on how Russia/USSR has treated it's soldiers just as a matter of course.

Kesper North
Nov 3, 2011

EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

Godholio posted:

You clearly need to read up more on how Russia/USSR has treated it's soldiers just as a matter of course.

Yeah, they'll even blow up civillians in Moscow if it will serve political ends. Bombing a couple of their own troops is business as usual. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings

It sounds like the airfield is already operational again.

Meanwhile, the Russians have dispatched the frigate Admiral Grigorovich in the direction of the American destroyers that launched the strike. This is getting a little uncomfortable. Hope this strike was worth it. I'm not convinced.

https://news.usni.org/2017/04/07/russia-sends-frigate-mediterranean-following-u-s-retaliation-strike-u-s-destroyers-remain-station

What do we know about the Admiral Grigorovich? Is it a credible threat to two Arleigh Burkes? I'm guessing it's not, but I know nothing.

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

Kesper North posted:

What do we know about the Admiral Grigorovich? Is it a credible threat to two Arleigh Burkes? I'm guessing it's not, but I know nothing.

Not really a threat, but still armed to the teeth. Russia is putting cruise missiles now on everything that floats.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Yeah it's weird to send a frigate at two Destroyers. It's just going to stare at them and scowl pretty much.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 23, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

Sperglord posted:

The missile troops might be foreign contractors / under near direct control of foreign contractors.

I don't know the ends and outs of it, but I do personally know Patriot contractors and uniformed military who've been stationed there. It's safe to say that Saudi air defense is... not quite entirely an indigenous Saudi affair.

Doctor Grape Ape
Aug 26, 2005

Dammit Doc, I just bought this for you 3 months ago. Try and keep it around for a bit longer this time.

Dandywalken posted:

Yeah it's weird to send a frigate at two Destroyers. It's just going to stare at them and scowl pretty much.

Finally, context to this guy's Deviant Art: http://pookyhorse.deviantart.com/art/Scuttler-the-ship-331291454

Syrian Lannister
Aug 25, 2007

Oh, did I kill him too?
I've been a very busy little man.


Sugartime Jones
I wonder how many subs are lurking out there.

Kesper North
Nov 3, 2011

EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

Syrian Lannister posted:

I wonder how many subs are lurking out there.

LOL. Nice avatar/text/username.

Back Hack
Jan 17, 2010


Syrian Lannister posted:

I wonder how many subs are lurking out there.

Russian submarine fleet is in a very dismal state at the moment, likely not many.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

:wtc: Why did you have that bookmarked?

Somebody Awful
Nov 27, 2011

BORN TO DIE
HAIG IS A FUCK
Kill Em All 1917
I am trench man
410,757,864,530 SHELLS FIRED


He probably remembered it from the last time it got posted in TFR. :barf:

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Gervasius posted:

Not really a threat, but still armed to the teeth. Russia is putting cruise missiles now on everything that floats.

The two statements don't follow. A small fiberglass boat disabled the Cole. A modern warship with anti ship missiles and torpedos is a major threat to any ship.

If you mean "what happens if they attack the Burkes" then all 3 ships involve probably sink and the rest of us get to hail SS-18 Satan.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

hobbesmaster posted:

The two statements don't follow. A small fiberglass boat disabled the Cole. A modern warship with anti ship missiles and torpedos is a major threat to any ship.

If you mean "what happens if they attack the Burkes" then all 3 ships involve probably sink and the rest of us get to hail SS-18 Satan.

While I don't relish the particular problem solving and grievance settling track record of our current Commander in Chief, I do remind you that there have been incidents in the past where Russian forces directly contributed to the deaths of American servicemen in *deliberate acts of hostility*, and occasionally within international airspace and waters. Last I checked, the world did not perish in nuclear fire.

While a lost Burke would raise the tally far higher than the crew of an RB-47, EP-3, or spy ship would, the one thing the true 'owners' of this world don't want is something to come along and turn the money and power spigot off. Putin might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, but it doesn't mean much if he can't loving *spend* any of it or enjoy the power it gives him.

So - and this is *me* saying this - cut it out with the WE'RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIIE poo poo, because believe it or not, there are actually people who are unhinged enough on these forums to actually do something rash should things escalate, which they probably will.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Apr 8, 2017

JcDent
May 13, 2013

Give me a rifle, one round, and point me at Berlin!
Survivalist nutjobs? Or do we have national policy deciders on the forums?

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


JcDent posted:

Survivalist nutjobs? Or do we have national policy deciders on the forums?

:lol:

Deptfordx
Dec 23, 2013

Dandywalken posted:

I imagine most were shot down. In 1999 many were nailed by manpads supposedly in flight. Outright falling from the sky onto a beach etc doesn't seem likely.


The consensus seems to be they were warned the attack was coming, so presumeably this was the ideal situation from an Air Defence viewpoint.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
Still haven't seen evidence that any were shot down. There would be cam footage and wreckage.

We likely won't see official BDA but if that drone footage is authentic then you could count impacts. We know how many were launched.

E: lol at the news media being focused on stirring everyone up over the rare earths used in the missles and claiming we rely on China for our supply. Yeah, that's the strategic issue at play here. Way to deflect the issues.

Where is the outrage at Russia actively defending a regime that uses chemical weapons? Something internationally banned for 100 years?

Murgos fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Apr 8, 2017

brakeless
Apr 11, 2011

I don't think any, or at least a major number, of the Tomahawks were shot down. If you look at the struck airbase on a map, it's close to the Lebanese border and far away from the airbase where the Russians have their major presence. Given that the Syrian air defences don't exactly blanket the whole country either, I'd imagine it'd have been trivial to route the missiles away from any threats.

Here's an imgur album of images taken by ImageSat International. They count 44 targets, of which 15 are double aircraft shelters, so that's 59. They didn't upload all of the closeup comparion images, but there are other sources that show completely unharmed shelters and aircraft. I'd say most likely it was about 90 % hits and the Russians getting their disinformation in early because it's easy and free.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Shows what I get for jumping to conclusions! Those satellite galleries are excellent.

bloops
Dec 31, 2010

Thanks Ape Pussy!

Reported for poo poo posting

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

brakeless posted:

I don't think any, or at least a major number, of the Tomahawks were shot down. If you look at the struck airbase on a map, it's close to the Lebanese border and far away from the airbase where the Russians have their major presence. Given that the Syrian air defences don't exactly blanket the whole country either, I'd imagine it'd have been trivial to route the missiles away from any threats.

Here's an imgur album of images taken by ImageSat International. They count 44 targets, of which 15 are double aircraft shelters, so that's 59. They didn't upload all of the closeup comparion images, but there are other sources that show completely unharmed shelters and aircraft. I'd say most likely it was about 90 % hits and the Russians getting their disinformation in early because it's easy and free.

The ISI web page, which first posted the analysis, has been taken down.

But, lol, internet! Archived here: http://archive.is/zuxre

They counted 58 hits but two untouched bunkers. so, I'm going to guess 57 of 59? Somewhere in that range anyway.

Trampus
Sep 28, 2001

It's too damn hot for a penguin to be just walkin' around here.
Will the destroyers that launched the tomahawks have to go to a port to reload or do supply ships come to them?

Asking for a friend.

MrChips
Jun 10, 2005

FLIGHT SAFETY TIP: Fatties out first

Trampus posted:

Will the destroyers that launched the tomahawks have to go to a port to reload or do supply ships come to them?

Asking for a friend.

That's what oilers are for.

Tetraptous
Nov 11, 2004

Dynamic instability during transition.

Trampus posted:

Will the destroyers that launched the tomahawks have to go to a port to reload or do supply ships come to them?

Asking for a friend.


Interesting question. I believe the destroyers are Arleigh-Burkes, and the Tomahawks would have been fired from Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells. Apparently, at-sea reloading of VLS is not a thing, yet.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Tetraptous posted:

Interesting question. I believe the destroyers are Arleigh-Burkes, and the Tomahawks would have been fired from Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells. Apparently, at-sea reloading of VLS is not a thing, yet.

I'm sure I've seen pictures of that happening, with a commentary along the lines of "turned out to be far too bothersome for operational use, let's never do this again".

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

Cat Mattress posted:

I'm sure I've seen pictures of that happening, with a commentary along the lines of "turned out to be far too bothersome for operational use, let's never do this again".

I was actually wondering that with regards to large-ish Russian cruisers. They carry reloads for the long range SAMs, but having to visit Vladivostok to reload shipwrecks seems onerous.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Trampus posted:

Will the destroyers that launched the tomahawks have to go to a port to reload or do supply ships come to them?

Asking for a friend.

Yeah, they're simple to load in port since all you need is a crane and the loading collar. At sea loading from a supply ship is possible in calm weather. Doing an UNREP for tomahawks is more a wartime emergency thing though, since you're dangling a big fragile bomb over your head while doing it.



edit: For context, for those of you who aren't familiar with UNREPs.

here's one going wrong https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htpjDopOgac thanks to Boon:

(click through for full story)

Boon posted:

That said, we were in the SAG and our initial course (about 010) had us heading towards Iran with an oil field to our port beam. The CO was with the conning officer and I was managing the bridge.

[...]

Anyway, emergency breakaway now in full effect, we managed to level out but we have two lines over including amidships and we're probably at around 100-120 feet. That's where the video starts up. It was shot by the air crew who obviously had no loving clue what was going on until the word started to get passed over the 1MC.

[...]

We found out much later that on the final segment of our turn the oiler suffered a rudder casualty which caused them to continue over to ~275. I still get chills watching the video and I got chills writing that up. At the time I was pretty 'young' OOD still, far from getting my pin, and I was just glad I didn't completely poo poo myself. I should note that not only did that BMSN and BM3/SN get an award, but so did the under instruction master helm - who was given her master helmsman qualification that night.

e2;

BIG HEADLINE posted:

They did it during the Polaris days:

Thats not at sea reloading though, they're in a harbor loading from a tender, which is essentially designed as a FOB for submarines.
\/\/\/

M_Gargantua fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Apr 8, 2017

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Cat Mattress posted:

I'm sure I've seen pictures of that happening, with a commentary along the lines of "turned out to be far too bothersome for operational use, let's never do this again".

They did it during the Polaris days:



Kind of telling that it didn't extend to Trident.

That being said, this is what Rota, Diego Garcia, and Yokosuka exist for.

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Cabbage Disrespect
Apr 24, 2009

ROBUST COMBAT
Leonard Riflepiss
Soiled Meat

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