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Concerned Citizen posted:i don't have an "ivory tower dc" viewpoint, because my career is spent actually managing ground operations that actually speak to voters face-to-face about what they care about. i have never even lived in dc. i think i have a pretty decent understanding as to what does and doesn't move voters given that i have actual statistical evidence to show my work has been successful in the past. But the voters care about yard sign, yet the campaign, and you, do not, so what value do you provide?
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Apr 9, 2017 19:12
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deadgoon posted:hello guys how does this 46 tweet tweetstorm make u feel: The Suck Zone: To be clear, Hillary did not lose
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Apr 9, 2017 19:12
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yard sign proponents are typical loving front yard elitists who are completely out of touch with those of us who rent apartments or don't have a front yard
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Apr 9, 2017 19:13
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logikv9 posted:yard sign proponents are typical loving front yard elitists who are completely out of touch with those of us who rent apartments or don't have a front yard I saw a few Hillary/Kaine yard signs hung up in various apartment windows, actually lots of them are still around.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:14
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Concerned Citizen posted:hillary deployed more staff and resources in michigan than both obama campaigns combined, by far. so you're just flat out wrong and don't know what you're talking about, per usual. She deployed so many resources to Michigan she was unable to campaign in Wisconsin. She also made sure LA got the resources it needed to win the swing state of California.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:14
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Mister Fister posted:If you're not even going to do the bare minimum, why should anyone vote for you? That is how you should be looking at it. sure, and the party has done research on whether signs are effective at moving voters. they aren't. they're "chum" - like buttons and bumper stickers, they bring people to campaign offices where they can be converted into volunteer shifts. they also make some political people happy. in general, yeah, you should have some yard signs just so everyone stops complaining about there aren't being any yard signs. but no, they don't win votes (directly) and never have.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:14
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Concerned Citizen posted:sure, and the party has done research on whether signs are effective at moving voters. they aren't. they're "chum" - like buttons and bumper stickers, they bring people to campaign offices where they can be converted into volunteer shifts. they also make some political people happy. in general, yeah, you should have some yard signs just so everyone stops complaining about there aren't being any yard signs. but no, they don't win votes (directly) and never have. Has the party done any research on running HIllary as a GE canidate? It might have helped.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:16
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etalian posted:She deployed so many resources to Michigan she was unable to campaign in Wisconsin. ???? quote:She also made sure LA got the resources it needed to win the swing state of California. she didn't run ads in la, she ran ads on national cable because it was cheaper.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:16
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ate poo poo on live tv posted:But the voters care about yard sign, yet the campaign, and you, do not, so what value do you provide? actually they don't so certain activists care a lot about yard signs, they aren't the voters you are generally worried about
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Apr 9, 2017 19:17
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What about when voters say they care about health-care and then Hillary makes sure it won't happen?
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Apr 9, 2017 19:18
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ate poo poo on live tv posted:What about when voters say they care about health-care and then Hillary makes sure it won't happen? yeah i guess if you cared about single payer then you'd be unhappy about that, not sure what that has to do with yard signs though
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Apr 9, 2017 19:19
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zegermans posted:It's more Michigan's more cousin-amorous communities were encouraged to vote in between heroin ODs. So what you're saying is that demographics will make it guaranteed that the Democrats will hold the white house forever?
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Apr 9, 2017 19:19
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Concerned Citizen posted:sure, and the party has done research on whether signs are effective at moving voters. they aren't. they're "chum" - like buttons and bumper stickers, they bring people to campaign offices where they can be converted into volunteer shifts. they also make some political people happy. in general, yeah, you should have some yard signs just so everyone stops complaining about there aren't being any yard signs. but no, they don't win votes (directly) and never have. So then, maybe, if you had some yard signs to get supporters excited and volunteer, tu abuela would've had a better chance of winning. You know, just maybe.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:20
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Nanomashoes posted:So what you're saying is that demographics will make it guaranteed that the Democrats will hold the white house forever? eventually, yes, white people are thankfully being genocided by attrition.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:21
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Concerned Citizen posted:yeah i guess if you cared about single payer then you'd be unhappy about that, not sure what that has to do with yard signs though My point is your ground operations seem to be completely ignored by the DNC or whatever shell company that actually runs the democratic party. So what value do you provide?
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Apr 9, 2017 19:22
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Concerned Citizen posted:sure, and the party has done research on whether signs are effective at moving voters. they aren't. they're "chum" - like buttons and bumper stickers, they bring people to campaign offices where they can be converted into volunteer shifts. they also make some political people happy. in general, yeah, you should have some yard signs just so everyone stops complaining about there aren't being any yard signs. but no, they don't win votes (directly) and never have. How often do you think it's a case where it's a surefire win vs. a close or close-ish race though? I wouldn't put too much resources for a democrat in a solid red state or district, that makes sense. How often do people sabotage themselves in close races and still win? That's the actual question you should be asking. Besides that, no TV ads, no signs, turning away volunteers, no heavy campaigning in those battleground states, that all adds up. But if you're asking me if Hillary lost because she's a bad candidate rather than signs, i'd obviously agree with that, no signs is just a symptom of Clinton being bad.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:24
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zegermans posted:eventually, yes, white people are thankfully being genocided by attrition. *republican policies and gerrymandering make it so that in the year 2053 black people now have negative votes* It's ok, demographics will carry us through this loss!
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Apr 9, 2017 19:25
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At her center Hillary is a just a weird test vat grown policy wonk that doesn't get the human aspects of politics.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:26
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Concerned Citizen posted:sure, and the party has done research on whether signs are effective at moving voters. they aren't. they're "chum" - like buttons and bumper stickers, they bring people to campaign offices where they can be converted into volunteer shifts. they also make some political people happy. in general, yeah, you should have some yard signs just so everyone stops complaining about there aren't being any yard signs. but no, they don't win votes (directly) and never have. well poo poo if that's what the party says, they've got this winning elections thing down to a science at this point after all
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Apr 9, 2017 19:29
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Concerned Citizen posted:on the other hand, no one actually gives a poo poo about plastic signs except for the people who want to put up plastic signs. Hillary Fan: We could make our base happy and signal we care, but would it stop racism? Would it stop sexism? Yard signs will never win you votes, but it sure as gently caress can lose you votes and make people think you're losing and don't care if you can't give them a sign.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:29
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Idk at this point it would be great for it to be a commoj thing to acknowledge hillary was a bad candidate who ran a bad campaign based on assumptions that this would be a regular cycle when it was clear that it was anything but, and maybe we should critically examine and take some lessons from that. sadly nobody in the broader dnc party apparatus seems capable of saying "yeah we relied too much on oir flawed Hadoop polling and based too many strategies on the flawed assumptions it generated", instead its Comey, misogyny, and russians all the way down. Just a lil contrition. Thats all.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:30
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etalian posted:At her center Hillary is a just a weird test vat grown policy wonk that doesn't get the human aspects of politics. It's been established that she's a lizard person
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Apr 9, 2017 19:30
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ex post facho posted:Idk at this point it would be great for it to be a commoj thing to acknowledge hillary was a bad candidate who ran a bad campaign based on assumptions that this would be a regular cycle when it was clear that it was anything but, and maybe we should critically examine and take some lessons from that. Better to blame external factors than even think about the obvious internal root causes for why she lost.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:31
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SKULL.GIF posted:like on the bus I see almost literally everyone using an electronic device of some kind that's linked to the internet The internet builds isolated echo chambers where people only ever read things or talk to people they already agree with, unless theyre a bunch of sad brains who like arguing on the internet with idiots. Other forms of media are becoming more and more differentiated to where you can go get your preferred flavor of news entertainment, but its not quite as extreme as the internet. This echo chamber isolation can convince people their dumb ideas are actually super popular, or that a bunch of derps spouting memes are vastly more powerful than they are. Or that 'brocialism' is a real scourge. zegermans posted:eventually, yes, white people are thankfully being genocided by attrition. For those wondering what 'alt-left' was supposed to mean (I liked ctrl-left better too, it was clever), this is it. zegermans and the rest of the dangerously woke are supposedly the dark mirror of Richard Spencer. But while Richard Spencer might actually convince someone to go out and hurt somebody else, zegermans is just a sad idiot word vomiting on the internet. Most of the alt-left are just sad idiot woke lords word vomiting with no real influence except with maybe some internet ''''journalists''''.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:34
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how did hillary lose with such bright people working on her campaign
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Apr 9, 2017 19:34
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errr zeg is much more on the hill has eyes than over the leftist moat to tilt at single payer windmills lol
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Apr 9, 2017 19:37
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etalian posted:At her center Hillary is a just a weird test vat grown policy wonk that doesn't get the human aspects of politics. Another thing that bothers me is where does the idea that Hillary is some kind of amazing policy wonk come from? She holds zero positions except that marriage is a scared bond between a man and a woman, super predators need to be brought to heel and that bombing/invading the middle east is good too. How can she possibly develop progressive policy from that? Everything else she has ever said was focused grouped and means-tested or sourced from a some lovely political think-tank to benefit her peer-group.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:37
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MizPiz posted:So then, maybe, if you had some yard signs to get supporters excited and volunteer, tu abuela would've had a better chance of winning. i mean the yard sign to volunteer conversion rate is really low. like 1 in 5 will convert to a shift at best, and of those less than half will actually show up to perform the shift. a lot of yard sign people see their sign as replacement for actual volunteering. regardless, the michigan program had more than enough resources to make gotv work in michigan. hillary got 2,268,839 votes. of those, maybe roughly 1/3rd would end up mobilization targets (the rest are base voters that almost always vote, so they're not great gotv targets since you would yield very few votes per door if you add them into the universe). so let's say 756k~ targets. of those, we'll say 90% are canvassable (which is very generous). so thats 681k~. michigan has no early vote so we'll say they're 100% election day voters. while a lot of those voters will live together, we'll say they're all in separate households so we have some extra room for error. now i want to have a decently robust gotv program, so we'll say 2 passes. 1.36~ million total attempts over 4 days. they had a (iirc) $1.7 million paid canvass. we'll ballpark leave 200k off for overhead. that leaves us with 1.5 million which at $15/h gives us about 33,300~ paid, 3 door shifts. that alone can do almost 2 passes even if they only averaged 35 attempts per, and the rest is divided among your 200 organizers. you're well into 2-3 million attempts in a well-run program. so basically they were so grossly over-resourced that they almost certainly could have done gotv in spades without a single volunteer. it was their own incompetence that caused them to fail to hit that mark. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 19:42 on Apr 9, 2017 |
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Apr 9, 2017 19:37
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaL11b-Lcso
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Apr 9, 2017 19:37
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ate poo poo on live tv posted:Another thing that bothers me is where does the idea that Hillary is some kind of amazing policy wonk come from? She holds zero positions except that marriage is a scared bond between a man and a woman, super predators need to be brought to heel and that bombing/invading the middle east is good too. How can she possibly develop progressive policy from that? Everything else she has ever said was focused grouped and means-tested or sourced from a some lovely political think-tank to benefit her peer-group. Also, why do hill shills give a poo poo about whether the president is the biggest wonk ever? I'd rather have a president with sound judgement, which hillary lacks. There are enough wonks working under POTUS.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:39
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Concerned Citizen posted:sure, and the party has done research on whether signs are effective at moving voters. they aren't. they're "chum" - like buttons and bumper stickers, they bring people to campaign offices where they can be converted into volunteer shifts. they also make some political people happy. in general, yeah, you should have some yard signs just so everyone stops complaining about there aren't being any yard signs. but no, they don't win votes (directly) and never have. Kinda wonder if a new set of political research is going to come out of this cycle based around herd effects. If no one you know looks like they're going to vote for a candidate, maybe you shouldn't vote for them either. Also I'm willing to bet a significant portion of political research is extremely garbage or based on outmoded theories, like any social science field - especially if they used big data without attempts to address context.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:39
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MaxxBot posted:The Jeb! EPA would be fully staffed with energy lobbyists but they'd be low-energy lobbyists.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:39
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ate poo poo on live tv posted:My point is your ground operations seem to be completely ignored by the DNC or whatever shell company that actually runs the democratic party. So what value do you provide? my job is to convince voters to turnout and vote for whatever candidate i'm working for, not to do survey research for the dnc. i'm generally pretty successful in that regard, so that is the value.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:40
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so jeb! is going to staff the EPA with former enron lobbyists?
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Apr 9, 2017 19:41
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mugrim posted:Hillary Fan: We could make our base happy and signal we care, but would it stop racism? Would it stop sexism? This probably is what i should have posted. This is a great way of putting it.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:41
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ex post facho posted:errr zeg is much more on the hill has eyes than over the leftist moat to tilt at single payer windmills lol The 'left' in 'alt-left' was intended by those who cooked up the term to refer to extreme left idpol positions. Nobody but centrist fucks gives a poo poo about the economic leftists
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Apr 9, 2017 19:41
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lol, sometimes it's easy to forget just how much Hillary got clobbered & hosed up until you see the map again
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Apr 9, 2017 19:42
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etalian posted:Trump won because he actually campaigned and managed flip safe blue states such as PA. nah, I think it's more that Hillary was really bad at actually campaigning In a lot of the swing states, dread abuela massively outspent the piss goblin and still lost because it doesn't really matter how hard you campaign if the campaigning you're doing is worthless dogshit the voters hate. even if she had campaigned in MI it probably wouldn't have changed a thing because her campaign message was so garbo that she got hardly any return on that investment of effort and money Mister Fister posted:It shows the lack of care they had for the rust belt states. If you see trump signs all over the places and none for clinton, it kinda shows the lack of enthusiasm of her campaign. Not to imply signs were the ONLY thing that was a dumb decision. The only time yard signs matter is if people start making their own, because that signals that people have enthusiasm People didn't lack enthusiasm for Hillary because she wasn't handing out enough yard signs and bumper stickers in crucial districts, they lacked enthusiasm for her because she was a notoriously bad public speaker who didn't really offer a vision for the country and expressed outright disdain for economic populism
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Apr 9, 2017 19:44
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mugrim posted:Hillary Fan: We could make our base happy and signal we care, but would it stop racism? Would it stop sexism? i mean i'm pretty sure the number of people who would decide not to vote for a candidate because they couldn't get a yard sign is absolutely, vanishingly small. if you're coming to an office in the first place to get a sign you're already a hardcore supporter.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:45
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Mister Fister posted:Also, why do hill shills give a poo poo about whether the president is the biggest wonk ever? I'd rather have a president with sound judgement, which hillary lacks. There are enough wonks working under POTUS. That's true too. Ideally the president should have good ideas like "single-payer healthcare is good," and "US led unilateral action should be avoided," Then the executive bureaucracy will figure out how to do it working within the constraints of the political realities of the time.
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Apr 9, 2017 19:45
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