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idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!

tiistai posted:

I could easily smash your blue if I was allowed to use red of my own :^) but this'll have to do instead: Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented. If you're pulling a Rudolf-Shannon-Kanon conspiracy out of thin air, don't expect me to take it any more seriously than small bombs.

Knox's 8th is a bit tricky to apply to me, since I'm not a detective in the story and can't uncover additional evidence on my own. The story isn't complete yet, so it is entirely possible that evidence of such a conspiracy will appear in the next post, before the conclusion is reached.

Nevertheless, let's say that this isn't going to happen. In that case, I'll use Occam's Razor to amend my conspiracy: Only Kanon and Shannon are involved. Rudolf's reaction is secondary; he only reacted because those two identified a knock even though one didn't exist. We already have been shown that those two will conspire with each other, so Knox's 8th doesn't apply. I can even offer a conjecture as to motive; if Kanon is, as I believe, the child that was supposed to have died, he would be interested in frustrating Natsuhi's inheritance in vengeance, and the letter is directly aimed at destroying it. (Unanswered question: how did he live? Was Nanjo on hand even back then? Kinzo has known him for a while. Why wouldn't he be returned to Natsuhi? That one's easier - Kinzo was a loving maniac and taking the opportunity to sneak the child away from him was probably best for everyone.) Shannon is simply helping him with his revenge plot; it has already been well-established that those two are close and that neither of them is particularly happy with their lot in life.

(In case there is someone unfamiliar with the term, "Occam's Razor" is a statement that one should tend to pick the idea that involves the fewest unknowns, often interpreted as the smallest number of people, moving parts, etc.)

Cyouni posted:

That one is simple, however - there's an hour gap between when Shannon/Kanon came in to serve tea, and when the knocking happened. Anyone in the guesthouse could have placed it between those times, and left before 24:00, thereby fulfilling the red truth about "no one in the mansion" and "at 24:00, these people were in the mansion".

I thought about this one a bit, but unfortunately, the statement you're alluding to is no one in the mansion placed the letter in the hallway. It doesn't say "nobody I said was in the mansion before", just nobody in the mansion, and it doesn't say "nobody placed it between time X and Y or at time Z", and it is further clarified to mean that they didn't do it at all, in any way, even accidentally. Combine that with It was impossible for anyone outside the mansion to influence anything inside the mansion around the time of the family conference. and the result is that neither anyone IN the mansion nor anyone OUT of the mansion could have placed the letter. This is what caused Erika's brain to blow a fuse. The only conclusion we can reasonably come to is that the letter was NOT placed in the hallway, and any appearance that it was is some sort of sleight of hand; the exact nature of that trick is debatable, of course.

Simply by the failure of this letter to exist in the hallway, etc.

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resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?
Yeesh. Complicated feelings for this one... peas hit it on the head: Erika may be an awful monster, and what she did to Cornelia is unforgivable, but her desperation to be "accepted" by Berne (and Berne's complete and obviously deliberate denial of it) was good for a laugh at first. But just like all the other instances of abuse and harm, our face gets rubbed in it until we become sick: she tries SO hard to streetch her little brain cells, and Lambda takes such obvious glee in shutting her down, that it becomes uncomfortable. The way she talks about being a piece that must be used- just like all that furniture poo poo in the first game- makes me think that she is yet another victim of abuse and pain, meant to show us yet another example of somebody who's been hurt so much she literally has no idea of how to do anything else... a vibe that even Kinzo has given me. I mean, she can still go to hell, but she just comes off as a sad, pathetic lunatic in that last scene... just like Kinzo in his mellower moments. Pain begets pain.

As for the central mystery... something does occur, but it relies on certain information that I don't really know is true and is contrary to previous games till now. But hey, I still got Battler as my avatar, so hell with it, here goes.

These explanations for how the letter and knock could have happened have already been established pretty well by Erika for the most part, so trying the same tack and going even more complicated would not seem to work (and the whole bit is stretching Knox' Rules to the breaking point already. I mean, an auto knocker? What would the point of such a thing be?) So let me go the other way, and point out that the only one with "detective authority", and thus an unjaundiced eye that cannot be fooled and an honest hand that cannot be turned to murder, wasn't there. She was in the guesthouse the whole time according to the red... which means the entire bit in the main house is now questionable, "suffused with the darkness of the witch," to use the games own phraseology. So with that in mind, there is a simpler explanation for all this, and peas hit on it in his last two points, so let me take it a bit further: why are we assuming that the knock and the letter are real? Why is the assumption that the entire scenario happened the way they said it did; why didn't someone just come in with the ring, give it to Battler, and concoct a story about a magic letter conferring the right of headship for the benefit of the stupidest sibling and his equally dim and flustered wife? Heck, with this explanation, we've also eliminated the contradiction of Natsuhi's call: if the whole room was in on it, they could have made the call to Natsuhi right there in the conference room, two birds with one stone. It's difficult to imagine Battler being privy to such a plan, especially how she defended Natsuhi so well a couple updates ago, but... that was before we knew of a couple of things: a) the new rule of "Detective Authority;" and 2) the Cliff-Baby. For my hypothesis to be true, they have to be in this room (and I think they were, because most* other candidates are dead or couldn't have done it), and Battler... fits that profile. It still makes me :pwn:, but the profile does fit... and it fits on Kanon and Shannon both as well.

So to make this official, repetition requested: The letter and the knock announcing it are things that really happened. And in their absence, I submit the blue: The letter and knock were fakes concocted by a person or group of persons in the conference room at midnight, possibly to provide an alibi for Natsuhi's call.

*It has been mentioned that Kumasawa is a drat good actress, so I cannot discount the possibility that it was her, as her actions are largely unaccounted for here.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

idonotlikepeas posted:

Knox's 8th is a bit tricky to apply to me, since I'm not a detective in the story and can't uncover additional evidence on my own.

You don't have to be inside a story for clues to be presented to you. We're not reading a Sherlock Holmes story here.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Only Kanon and Shannon are involved. Rudolf's reaction is secondary; he only reacted because those two identified a knock even though one didn't exist. We already have been shown that those two will conspire with each other, so Knox's 8th doesn't apply. I can even offer a conjecture as to motive; if Kanon is, as I believe, the child that was supposed to have died, he would be interested in frustrating Natsuhi's inheritance in vengeance, and the letter is directly aimed at destroying it.

This is what I mean, yes. You could argue that these are clues that have been presented.

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!
Sure, I get what you're saying, and you're probably right that I didn't sufficiently establish WHY I thought Rudolf might be involved (spoilers: I thought money). It's more a matter of caution against future stuff; if they'd asked us to solve this mystery before the last entry, without the benefit of all that red text, we would have come up with something totally different and, speaking for myself, I don't feel like I could be blamed for doing so. I don't think the presentation of the clues has stopped yet; I assume we'll get more red text about the murders, if not this, so please have a little mercy on those of us groping around for the truth. Without resorting to witches, we have to take a harder road. :)

(That said, and maybe this is an example of the game having no love or honor, but this red text doesn't even seem to allow for the presence of witches; it doesn't specify humans or anything like that when it says who couldn't place the letter. Phooey.)

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

idonotlikepeas posted:

Knox's 8th is a bit tricky to apply to me, since I'm not a detective in the story and can't uncover additional evidence on my own. The story isn't complete yet, so it is entirely possible that evidence of such a conspiracy will appear in the next post, before the conclusion is reached.

Nevertheless, let's say that this isn't going to happen. In that case, I'll use Occam's Razor to amend my conspiracy: Only Kanon and Shannon are involved. Rudolf's reaction is secondary; he only reacted because those two identified a knock even though one didn't exist.
There were two sets of knocks, and it appears as though everyone heard the second one. I'll also note that it's impossible for anyone in the dining hall to have made the call - we have a specific time for that (12:07 according to Natsuhi's clock), and we know everyone was there at that time.

idonotlikepeas posted:

I thought about this one a bit, but unfortunately, the statement you're alluding to is no one in the mansion placed the letter in the hallway. It doesn't say "nobody I said was in the mansion before", just nobody in the mansion, and it doesn't say "nobody placed it between time X and Y or at time Z", and it is further clarified to mean that they didn't do it at all, in any way, even accidentally. Combine that with It was impossible for anyone outside the mansion to influence anything inside the mansion around the time of the family conference. and the result is that neither anyone IN the mansion nor anyone OUT of the mansion could have placed the letter. This is what caused Erika's brain to blow a fuse. The only conclusion we can reasonably come to is that the letter was NOT placed in the hallway, and any appearance that it was is some sort of sleight of hand; the exact nature of that trick is debatable, of course.

Simply by the failure of this letter to exist in the hallway, etc.

tiistai posted:

It was impossible for anyone outside the mansion to influence anything inside the mansion around the time of the family conference.

And if you don't consider Gohda or Kumasawa to be people "outside the mansion" when they're placing the letter, no one in the mansion placed the letter in the hallway.

The red truth in this particular update is sort of weird. A lot of it seems to act more as compilations of previous reds, but in ways that also seem to compile far more than necessary. Things like this come up:

ProfessorProf posted:

"Please, allow me to speak. Before the family conference, Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa left the mansion and moved to the guesthouse."
"Please, allow me to speak. Of those who remain, only Krauss, Natsuhi, and Genji were in the second floor corridor, while all others were in the dining hall."
<snip>
"Maybe one of those not in the parlor: Krauss, Natsuhi or Genji, simply saw their chance right after that and placed the letter there. No wait, it should be possible for the people who supposedly went to the guesthouse too."
"We've heard that the mansion was locked and that no one outside could get in, but if someone pretended to have gone to the guesthouse and instead hid inside the mansion, it's perfectly possible that they could've placed the letter there."
"Allow me to speak. Blue truth, effective."

Despite the fact that the first red appears to deny it, the later blue of "someone hid and didn't actually go to the guesthouse" still seems to be effective as a possibility.

ProfessorProf posted:

"Not a single person in the dining hall... no, there's a simpler way to say it. Among all those inside the mansion at 24:00, not a single person placed that letter in the corridor."

This...

ProfessorProf posted:

In that case, the random location the letter fell to off the bottom of the serving cart couldn't be connected with the knock. For the letter to be found thanks to the knock, it would have to be reliably positioned 'on the other side of the door'. However, it was announced in red that no one in the mansion placed the letter in the hallway.

...later gets condensed to this, without any further clarification.

ProfessorProf posted:



"...For example, let's assume there was a device on the serving cart that 'drops the letter when it stops moving'. In this case, you'd think they could predict that the cart would probably stop just once when those two knock on the door to the dining hall, and by doing so, they'd be cleverly making it so the letter drops right in front of the door."
"But even this doesn't work, okay? The action of 'stopping the serving cart' would indirectly lead to 'placing the letter in the hallway'. That would mean Shannon and Kanon, who were pushing the cart, had 'indirectly and unintentionally' placed the letter there! So even this is no good! Furthermore, setting it up so that the letter peeled off with the passage of time would mean that the people pushing the serving cart had 'coincidentally and unintentionally' placed the letter there. Of course, this is also no good!!"
"Repeat it. 'At 24:00, only Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa existed outside the mansion'."

Like if someone in the dining hall had slipped out the window just at 24:00... and 'didn't exist in the mansion' at that time... With this wordplay, it might be possible to get around the red truth.

"...Repeat iiiiiit...? Even though I'm nice enough to give you all this red for free? Aren't you being a bit greedy? I'm not an idiot like Beato, so I won't go around saying everything my opponent tells me to repeat..."
"...I'll give you a full body massage in a bath with marshmallows and konpeito sometime soon. Enough to rub your skin off."



In other words, no matter how much they struggled, those 8 people, including Erika, could not have existed inside the mansion, much less in front of the door. And at the same time, no matter how much they struggled, those inside the mansion could not have existed outside the mansion.

Aside from the odd anomaly of there being 8 people mentioned outside the mansion, Bern also seems to consider "in the mansion" not including people who were "in the mansion before 24:00, and simply slipped out".

So for my theory, When "in the mansion" is used in the past update, it refers to the people mentioned as being in the mansion at 24:00. Therefore, it allows for the possibility of a person listed as being outside as 24:00 to be inside previous to that time, place the letter and knock, and then escape outside the mansion (perhaps through a window) before 24:00 occurs.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

idonotlikepeas posted:

(That said, and maybe this is an example of the game having no love or honor, but this red text doesn't even seem to allow for the presence of witches; it doesn't specify humans or anything like that when it says who couldn't place the letter. Phooey.)

Nah. The logic is that if it's impossible, it's because a witch did it.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


It is odd that they list 7 people who were outside the mansion and then talk about 8 people. Is that a typo, or are those 7 names actually associated with 8 people?


And I do like the logic that if no one out of the mansion placed the letter and no one in the mansion placed the letter, then the letter wasn't placed at all and was either sleight of hand or the events we saw were fictional (like witches).

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011
Wow, for all the scorn "small bombs" got, these characters are happy to throw out equally unlikely possibilities.

I'll steal peas'* summary, changing some of the red slightly to more closely match the exact wording (but after reviewing them I don't think it matters). We can simplify a little. The knock is harder than the letter, so forget the letter. A number of the statements are redundant as well.

idonotlikepeas posted:

1. Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa went to the Guesthouse before the conference.
2. Krauss, Natsuhi, and Genji went to the second floor.
3. All other characters are in the dining hall.
9. It is impossible for any character in the mansion to be the source of a knocking sound, which includes undetected people in the mansion.
11. At midnight, only Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa exist outside the mansion.
13. It was impossible for anyone outside the mansion to influence anything inside the mansion around the time of the family conference.
14. None of the characters misidentified something other than a direct knock on the door as a knock. Knocking is defined as someone standing in front of the door and hitting it with their hand.

Red 14 would seem to rule out any type of device, unless you want somebody to have cut off Kinzo's hand and use it to build an automatic knocking machine that pops out at midnight. Assuming "influence" includes direct, indirect, coincidental, accidental, etc, etc, then red 13 and 9 rule out all people (I guess witches aren't people, though I'd bet most native English speakers would say a witch is a "person" but maybe not a "human.") The only attacks I see are peas' suggestion of a lie in the evidence, or attacking the "midnight" statements. If you read the original story again, the knock came just a little before the clock struck midnight, and the door wasn't opened until a bit after midnight (the knock happens, people react, the tone happens, then they discuss who it could be). Maybe my cut down summary isn't good enough, if you want to attack the exact wording of each red statement.

I'll note that Natsuhi's caller produces much the same problems, because of red 13. The caller was on the line when everybody inside the mansion was grouped together, and now we're told it couldn't be anybody from the outside. The only holes I see there are for Genji himself to be the caller (he's inside the mansion and alone when he answers the phone), or an extra person hiding in the mansion, since we don't have red 9's sweep to include people who sneak in.

Hmm, that dining room should have multiple doors, even though the discussion is all about one door. There may be a loophole there.

* Your very user names say you don't like peas, and I call you peas. My apologies.

witchcore ricepunk
Jul 6, 2003

The Golden Witch
Who Solved the Epitaph


A Probability of 1/2,578,917
I agree with resurgam. None of that poo poo even happened: note that Lambda weasels around stating the fact of the knock itself in red.

I also will propose that, because Erika holds detective authority in this game, nothing that she does not witness firsthand is trustworthy. It's expanding on the hostage thread in the previous episode, which was stuffed full of magic because there were no surviving witnesses and/or the perspectives were of accomplices. Thus, Shannon and Kanon are seen together in the dining room as separate people. Thus, Kinzo is seen by Battler outside. Thus, the knock.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


The caller could be Krauss, Genji, or the call could have not happened. So far that part at least is easy to explain.

Also, weird verbal tics continue to be annoying. "Please, allow me to speak" in front of every sentence. Feh.

Qrr fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Apr 10, 2017

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011

Tender Child Loins posted:

I agree with resurgam. None of that poo poo even happened: note that Lambda weasels around stating the fact of the knock itself in red.

I also will propose that, because Erika holds detective authority in this game, nothing that she does not witness firsthand is trustworthy. It's expanding on the hostage thread in the previous episode, which was stuffed full of magic because there were no surviving witnesses and/or the perspectives were of accomplices. Thus, Shannon and Kanon are seen together in the dining room as separate people. Thus, Kinzo is seen by Battler outside. Thus, the knock.

But there are no mysteries, in the sense of a puzzle that the reader is supposed to solve. I have more than a little sympathy for your position, because the author sure doesn't care to make things clear, but I think he means for some bits to follow logic.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

resurgam40 posted:

So to make this official, repetition requested: The letter and the knock announcing it are things that really happened. And in their absence, I submit the blue: The letter and knock were fakes concocted by a person or group of persons in the conference room at midnight, possibly to provide an alibi for Natsuhi's call.

Tender Child Loins posted:

I agree with resurgam. None of that poo poo even happened: note that Lambda weasels around stating the fact of the knock itself in red.

I also will propose that, because Erika holds detective authority in this game, nothing that she does not witness firsthand is trustworthy.

Yeah, this seems the most parsimonious dodge here. If something is rendered impossible, it probably doesn't exist.

Though I'm not sure that we can count anything that Erika sees as trustworthy if we're trying to deny the involvement of witches. It would be like saying that Ronove is the detective, and we can only trust what he sees, while he's communing with literal witches and punching people to death with his magic hands. Erika is either insane or just talked with Bern though the medium of lightning. She's also used red text on the board. She's an avatar of magic outside of the meta-game. If Erika's in a scene talking to Bern, and everyone else can see her talking to someone not there, I'm not sure how we're meant to interpret that, if Erika's viewpoint is the objective truth. (Again, unless Erika is insane.)

E: Or it could be time for the resurrection of the trained non-human primate theory from the previous thread. Chimp-kun was the knocker. E2: Though I've tragically realised that that would be a violation of Knox's 8th. Goat-kun was the knocker remains valid however, as we have been properly prepared for his existence. E3: Though goat's don't have hands, violating Lambda's red. Foiled again.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Apr 11, 2017

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

CottonWolf posted:

E: Or it could be time for the resurrection of the trained non-human primate theory from the previous thread. Chimp-kun was the knocker. E2: Though I've tragically realised that that would be a violation of Knox's 8th. Goat-kun was the knocker remains valid however, as we have been properly prepared for his existence. E3: Though goat's don't have hands, violating Lambda's red. Foiled again.

My heart was hopeful, but then it was shattered. "Rest in peace, my beloved Chimpatrice" indeed. :rip:

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!

tiistai posted:

Nah. The logic is that if it's impossible, it's because a witch did it.

Sure. Beatrice tended to be more careful about saying "no human" rather than "nobody", though. Although maybe that's just a translation thing since we switched translators? Or maybe I'm just remembering it wrong.

Cyouni posted:

There were two sets of knocks, and it appears as though everyone heard the second one.

Hmm. Let's see:

ProfessorProf posted:



BGM: None

All of the servants tended to knock in a similar manner, so no one noticed anything strange. However, Shannon and Kanon turned around with surprised looks on their faces.

...The servants here today included the two of them, Genji, Kumasawa, and Gohda. Gohda had the midnight shift at the guesthouse. Kumasawa had gone to bed in a spare room in the guesthouse. They were in here, so Genji was the only person left, but they knew very well that Genji wouldn't knock like that...

"...Who is it? It's not locked. Just come in."

Rudolf didn't recognize the knock either. When he asked 'Who is it?', it became apparent that no one could tell whose knock it was... After that, the same *knock*knock* repeated just once more. Could it be that someone had their hands full... and was asking that the door be opened for them...?

As a slightly odd feeling began to encompass the room, the sound of the large clock in the hall could be heard. It was a sign that October 4th had ended and October 5th had begun...

The wording is a bit deceptive here, of course. A knock "could be heard" (but by whom?). It's said to be reserved, like a servant, but I think there's enough weasel room in these words to propose it was imaginary.

Cyouni posted:

I'll also note that it's impossible for anyone in the dining hall to have made the call - we have a specific time for that (12:07 according to Natsuhi's clock), and we know everyone was there at that time.

BurningStone posted:

I'll note that Natsuhi's caller produces much the same problems, because of red 13. The caller was on the line when everybody inside the mansion was grouped together, and now we're told it couldn't be anybody from the outside. The only holes I see there are for Genji himself to be the caller (he's inside the mansion and alone when he answers the phone), or an extra person hiding in the mansion, since we don't have red 9's sweep to include people who sneak in.

Hadn't thought about the caller, but yeah, that's a thing to ponder. If I proceed on the assumption that Kanon was the child, he'd have to have enlisted help from someone else outside the room to make the call happen at that time. Of course, I don't think anything about the call has been said in red, so we might be deceived about the precise timing by, e.g., a clock whose time had been adjusted.

BurningStone posted:

* Your very user names say you don't like peas, and I call you peas. My apologies.

Ha. It's the typical abbreviation; don't worry about it.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
I'd honestly prefer to avoid constantly pulling the "possibly didn't happen" card due to how boring it is, but it is a possible solution to this one.

CottonWolf posted:

E: Or it could be time for the resurrection of the trained non-human primate theory from the previous thread. Chimp-kun was the knocker. E2: Though I've tragically realised that that would be a violation of Knox's 8th. Goat-kun was the knocker remains valid however, as we have been properly prepared for his existence. E3: Though goat's don't have hands, violating Lambda's red. Foiled again.

Ah, but there's a simple answer. We know that the seagulls have been missing (as evidenced by their lack of crying), and Kinzo's body has never been seen. Ergo, it's Seagulls-kun, using Kinzo's body as a puppet to knock on the door.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Hadn't thought about the caller, but yeah, that's a thing to ponder. If I proceed on the assumption that Kanon was the child, he'd have to have enlisted help from someone else outside the room to make the call happen at that time. Of course, I don't think anything about the call has been said in red, so we might be deceived about the precise timing by, e.g., a clock whose time had been adjusted.

It's possible, but we know it happens soon after midnight, as evidenced by the main clock's bells at the time Genji announces the call. I don't think that could be delayed overly long.

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011
If the clock was off, even by a few minutes, it would break a lot of red. I don't like that because I don't know why a human would care about fooling people about the time the letter arrived.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

CottonWolf posted:

Though I'm not sure that we can count anything that Erika sees as trustworthy if we're trying to deny the involvement of witches.

The gameboard is only concerned with whether witches and magic were involved in the murders or not. Even if Erika were pronounced in red to be a witch herself, it doesn't matter since she had nothing to do with the murders because she's the detective.

If you want to deny the existence of witches altogether that's your headache :witch:

Qrr posted:

Also, weird verbal tics continue to be annoying. "Please, allow me to speak" in front of every sentence. Feh.

Those are less "tics" and more honorary forms of address etc. that are even more awkward in English. These are holy Heavenly inquisitor underlings after all, they speak super formally.

Dr Pepper
Feb 4, 2012

Don't like it? well...

In the original Japanese Dlanor's assistants speak so hilariously over the top polite it becomes convoluted.

Rody One Half
Feb 18, 2011

Gosh why do these pantsless nuns have to be so rigid

Zandar
Aug 22, 2008

Rodyle posted:

Gosh why do these pantsless nuns have to be so rigid

So it hurts more when Erika pushes them over

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Cyouni posted:

Ah, but there's a simple answer. We know that the seagulls have been missing (as evidenced by their lack of crying), and Kinzo's body has never been seen. Ergo, it's Seagulls-kun, using Kinzo's body as a puppet to knock on the door.

I see no flaws in this theory. Kinzo knocked, but Seagulls-kun was pulling the strings the whole time.

BurningStone posted:

If the clock was off, even by a few minutes, it would break a lot of red. I don't like that because I don't know why a human would care about fooling people about the time the letter arrived.

Ever since the red text in the third episode I've been sure that there's going to be some sort of "everything happened at a different time" twist. Thing is, it never requires a directly present reason if you hypothesise that the clocks were changed earlier.* The most obvious reason to do it is to provide yourself with an alibi for a different period of time when you're actually killing someone. So the fact that you have the letter arrive at a certain point and make everyone believe it appeared at a different time, could well be to draw attention you in at place Y at time X when in fact it was never time X and at time X you were really in place Z.

That said, I'm still broadly convinced by the "It never happened" theory. There was never a knock nor anyone hearing it. The narration (Lambda) was just lying.

*E: Because I was very vague here, to be clear, I mean if the clocks were changed earlier to present an alibi at some time in the future, any particular event need not be the event the time that the alibi was intended for. Change the clock in a room and it's off for all future events, not just the one that the perpetrator needed the alibi during. The clocks can be incidentally wrong.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 11:02 on Apr 11, 2017

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?


October 5th, 1986, 12:33 PM



"Yes, that's right. We did get fairly tired. We decided to take a short rest and then start up again."

To smoke out the murderer of the first twilight, Erika closely questioned everyone involved to check their alibis and evidence. To confirm these, she went around the mansion with them, and when needed, took several trips out to the guesthouse through all the rain. Her vitality was admirable. Though she was an uninvited guest, everyone had long since stopped feeling anything strange about the way she imitated a detective...



BGM: Organ Short #200 Million in C Minor

"It's useless. Whether alibis exist or not, she can't deny our existence. Kinzo escaped through the window and is now one with the mists of Rokkenjima. She most certainly won't be able to capture or deny him."
"When all's said and done, perhaps you could say he's escaped to the underside of the chessboard."
"In that case, maybe it would be appropriate to say he's been stowed away."
"...Come to think of it, about those corpses from the first twilight. They've been stowed away too, right?"
"Yes. They've been put away in my darkness between this world and the next."
"...And that detective wannabe won't be able to find them...?"
"Of course. It would definitely be impossible for a human. Want to check?"
"Just in case. And we also need to reexamine what Lady Bernkastel's goals will be from now on."
"If you know your enemy, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles."
"If you know the truth, you can win a hundred battles without fighting."
"Pukkukukukuku. My, my."

Gaap opened up a large hole in the sky and had it swallow all of them up. She invited Beato and Ronove to the gap between worlds where she had hidden the corpses...



In other words, it truly and literally was a place not of this world. In this place, questions such as 'Where is this?' and 'What time is it?' have no meaning. Every single place led to here, but no place could be reached from here. Furthermore, all times connected to this place, but no time could be passed to from here. In short, this place was just what they said it was: the underside of the chessboard. No, perhaps it would be most appropriate to call this the captured pile, where pieces that have left the game go...



BGM: Voiceless

The five pitiful corpses with their necks sliced open had been arranged neatly. Their eyelids were shut and their hands joined. Apparently, even Gaap had respect for the dead...

"Oh my. There are five sacrifices for the first twilight in this game? Not six?"
"Oh, it's you, Teacher. I was worried about where you'd gone. The game has already reached the first twilight, and as you see, the first victims have appeared. So, it's finally time. I'm getting all excited...!"
"I see. The you that is here looks to be in high spirits. I'm pleased."
"?? I've got high spirits and a captivating body! What else to like except a good disposition? Wahaha."

For some reason, Virgilia praised Beato for her high spirits. Though Beato was taken aback at such granny-like words coming out of Virgilia's mouth all of a sudden, she pounded her chest and answered.

Virgilia had been absent often during this game. She might even have been away from her seat when Battler solved the epitaph and during the uproar that followed. Apparently, she had been absent for so many critical points that she didn't really understand much about what had happened so far in this game...

"Right now, five corpses have appeared. As you can see, their necks have been slit."

George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, Genji. All five of them had had their necks sliced open by something sharp... The wound opened wider than their mouths, and made it feel as though they would no longer need their mouths to breathe.



"Hmm? Red? Well, there's no point in me holding out against you. That's right, At a glance, anyone could confirm that these corpses are dead, so it is absolutely impossible that they are just people playing dead."
"Why did Lia use the red...?"
"Who knows. However, she is always thinking of Milady. She's probably thinking of something that will benefit Milady."
"...Hmmm."

But they had hid the corpses here so that no one could use the red... Despite that, however, Ronove was right. Virgilia always thought of Beatrice first. The way that these corpses, which Gaap had gone to all the trouble of erasing, had now been confirmed with the red made a slightly displeased expression rise to her face. However, in the end she remembered that she was only a guest and shrugged.



BGM: Dead Angle

"Hmm. Since the epitaph has already been solved, this game of mine is different from usual. I now have serving and protecting Natsuhi as my goal."
"...How would concealing their corpses protect Natsuhi?"
"...We've more or less figured out what our opponents' moves will be. This is probably a trap made to corner Natsuhi. Most likely, they'll sort through alibis for the first twilight and find them for everyone except Natsuhi."
"Last night, Natsuhi-sama was the first to leave the family conference, and then rested alone in her room. Unfortunately, she has no alibi whatsoever until the next morning."
"By this point, it's impossible to deny Kinzo's existence. However, the enemy still has a single move that can cancel that out."
"I see. So they'll corner Natsuhi and make her confess that Kinzo doesn't exist."
"Yeah. The enemy is probably after something like that. By watching the movements of the pieces involved with the family conference, we quickly realized that Natsuhi was isolated, noticed that trap of theirs, and countered with this move."
"The corpses disappear! Everyone has alibis, and no one exists who could have moved them. Not only does this support the claim that a witch exists, it also throws doubt on whether they were actually corpses in the first place and just barely allows Natsuhi to escape being a suspect."
"In other words, it's possible for Natsuhi-sama to claim that the sacrifices of the first twilight were only playing dead."
"You mean, even though many people certainly confirmed their deaths in the cousins' room...?"
"Just confirming their deaths isn't even close to the red truth...! No matter how much everyone claims to have truly witnessed their deaths, the red truth doesn't exist in the human world!"
"Because the corpses don't exist, Natsuhi can discount their words as a mistake, a trick, or by saying that all of them were lying, and it's possible for her to do this over and over to buy time for herself."
"In the human world, which lacks the red truth, perpetual check is an effective move."
"An endless argument with both sides denying the other's claims. Not pretty."
"True. However, beauty is something to be found after we win. If someone who cannot achieve victory seeks it, it is nothing but a poison to them."
"They do say that might makes right. Wahahahahaha."
"And even if I don't think it's beautiful, those Voyager witches will probably like it and say it isn't boring..."
"...I see. I've managed to grasp the flow of this game. It seems that it will get quite nasty."
"We're fully aware of that. And we already know that Natsuhi is probably about to be lured into yet another trap."
"A trap?"
"Yeah. Someone Lady Lambdadelta created, who calls himself a man from 19 years ago, has already threatened Natsuhi. She was ordered to go into a closet in a certain guest room in a few minutes, at 1:00 PM, and hide there. Krauss was taken as a hostage, so Natsuhi can't resist."
"...I see. How relentless. Can you protect her?"
"Of course. After all, Natsuhi isn't the culprit. No matter how much she's treated as the culprit, both the truth and phantoms are on our side. There's no way we'll lose. *cackle* *cackle* *cackle* *cackle*!!"



BGM: Golden Sneer

"...Wh, what do you mean by that...?!! A, are you... saying that you suspect me?!!"
"You've told me that you left before anyone else, returned to your room, and didn't leave that room until morning. However, if you cannot prove that, it doesn't count as an alibi."
"Prove...?! How could I do that...?!!"
"It doesn't matter how. Objectively speaking, it'll all be fine as long as you prove that it was impossible for you to commit the crime. Everyone else is cooperating. I want you to stop being so unkind and give me your alibi along with proof too."
"...That's right. Almost the whole night is a blank space in time for Natsuhi nee-san. She might have left the conference by saying that she wanted to rest before us, gone to the guesthouse, and attacked George and the others..."
"Please don't be a fool!! Why would I kill George-kun, and on top of that, my own daughter, Jessica?!!"
"Calm down. We're all equally suspicious. It's sad, but we all have to prove our innocence."
"Yeah. We've been thinking frantically about how to prove our alibis for last night so that we could clear up the suspicion against us."
"I know you can't like being suspected, Natsuhi-san. If it frustrates you, then shouldn't your first priority be searching for some way to prove your own innocence...?"

The relatives spoke as though they were all under equal suspicion, but the mood about the place didn't feel so peaceful. Erika was still in the middle of confirming everything, but except for Natsuhi, who was uncooperative when it came to proving alibis, everyone else had an alibi which was reasonably credible. Only Natsuhi, who claimed that just being suspected was an insult, was uncooperative with Erika, and her position began to grow more and more perilous...

This parlor was no longer a place of comfort for Natsuhi. And the sound of the cup smashing had made that decisive.



"Oh, so what are you going to do about it? Show us some kind of alibi that proves your innocence."
"As if you could!! Give me George back, murderer!!"
"Stop it, Eva...! Natsuhi-san, you're probably a little tired too. Of course, so are we. Why don't we take it easy for a bit...?"
"...Seriously. We're a little too high-strung."
"Aunt Natsuhi... Where are you going...?"
"Searching for alibis or the culprit is truly laughable at this point...! When the typhoon passes and the police come, everything will be exposed to the light of day. There's no reason whatsoever for us to play detectives. Am I wrong, Erika-san?"
"Generally speaking, you're right. However, I have the authority to do this."

Who gave her that authority? No one asked. It was an authority given by words of power from a higher world, so the pieces weren't even allowed to doubt it...

"I'm leaving. I have no intention of going along with your pointless questioning before the police come. If you suspect me, feel free to do so. I'm counting on the police to clear away that suspicion."

...It may be a bit late to mention this... but wait, this happens every time. As usual, the phone couldn't connect to the police. Natsuhi said the police would come, but that wasn't exactly true. Strictly speaking, the boat would come tomorrow, and they would use the radio on that boat to contact the police.

Well, it's not like I'll let everyone live that long anyway. *giggle*.

"...Natsuhi-san, it's dangerous to be alone... Perhaps it would be better if you..."
"Why not let her? That might make for some excellent proof. If Natsuhi nee-san gets killed in her own room, that'll be excellent proof of her innocence."
"Quit it, Aneki. It's probably best if we all get a bit of rest. Our bodies won't last until tomorrow."
"If we're going to take a break, we still mustn't let our guards down, got it...? We might not make it through the night, much less tomorrow."
"...Aunt Natsuhi. If you're returning to your room, make sure you lock it tight. Close the windows and shutters too, and stay safe. I don't want to suspect anyone. And more than that, I don't want there to be any more victims."
"...Thank you, Battler-kun. Then I'll return to my room. Gohda, you're in charge now. I know this is a horrible situation, but make sure that the guests have everything they need."
"Y, yes, Madam... I shall do so..."

With everyone watching her, Natsuhi left the parlor.



BGM: At Death's Door

...Natsuhi... couldn't disobey because of the threat against Krauss, who had been taken as a hostage. Very soon, it would be that promised time, 1:00 PM. She was to hide for an hour in the closet of a specific guest room.

It was easy to suspect that this bizarre order was a trap to select her as the next sacrifice. She thought of various ways to resist, but all methods would be useless against a culprit who had a hostage and was observing her from close by... So Natsuhi could do nothing but obediently follow that order and then claim that she had been forced to do this for her husband's safety... When the promised time had drawn near, Natsuhi had intentionally acted annoyed and smashed the cup on the ground to give her an excuse for slipping out of the parlor.

At any rate, no matter how cowardly a trap it may be... I cannot disobey now. I am now the one who carries the burden of the One-winged Eagle. Now that my husband, Krauss, has been captured, I must protect that even if I need to eat dirt...



...Of course, I am prepared to do that. I am Ushiromiya Natsuhi. Even if I am not permitted to bear the One-winged Eagle on my clothes, Father gave me permission to bear it in my heart...

"..."

...I've managed to get this far by believably dashing away in a rage. So far... everything has gone well.



BGM: None

The servants are normally ordered to lock any unused rooms. What will I do if it's locked...? I dashed out pretending that I was returning to my room. Popping back and asking a servant to unlock this guest room would be obviously suspicious... If I can, I'd like to get this eerie hide-and-seek over with without anyone noticing.

In that phone call from the one who claimed to be the man from 19 years ago, he said that I would win if no one found out, but lose if anyone did find out. He said that my husband would be released whether I won or lost, but as a person with a hostage taken against me, I'd rather not lose... I don't like it at all, but I have to go along with this game.

When I softly gripped the doorknob, I could feel that it was unlocked. Did Shannon or Kumasawa forget to lock it after cleaning? Or did that man unlock it in advance...? That man... couldn't be waiting for me in this room, could he?



All that about hide-and-seek might have been just an excuse. I kept the fact that I was coming here secret, and all of the other people think I'm resting in my room. If I were to be killed in this situation, it might create a new baffling murder case, like an extension of the one which occurred this morning.

"...Th, that's just great. Perhaps this is a good chance to confront the culprit directly..."

Natsuhi had some experience with using a naginata, but only casually. Unlike Eva, she couldn't brag about being able to hold off any single ruffian indefinitely. As she was now, she had no realistic chance of challenging a man with malicious intent and winning.

"..."

She readied herself... and slowly opened the door. She couldn't just stand around in the corridor and risk being seen by someone...



All she could hear were the unsettling sounds of the wind and rain. At first, that seemed to be proof that no one existed to threaten her, but soon, it only made an uneasy feeling rise up inside her even more strongly than before...

The closet was just off to the side of anyone entering the room. Lined up inside it was a set of hangers for hanging coats on. This closet, which had nothing hanging in it, was large enough for even an adult to hide in...



She would have to hide quietly in here for an hour. The room had a wood floor, but something like a carpet had been lain in the closet. It seemed that sitting down wouldn't be a problem. She had been sure someone would be waiting for her in this room or that a strange letter would be lying in the closet. In the worst case, she had even imagined that her husband's corpse might be inside there. However, none of these things she imagined turned out to be true. The only thing there was a cold guest room and a lifeless closet which was silently urging her to go inside...

"...And he told me... to hide in here for an hour... He's making fun of me."

Natsuhi shrugged, turned around, then locked and chained the guest room door.



This surely must be a total victory in the hide-and-seek game against that mystery man. However, it was such an easy victory, it made her feel uneasy. Normally, this would be against the rules of hide-and-seek. Even if she had won, wouldn't this displease the culprit?

And now, everyone thought she had returned to her room. If they found a room with a chain set, that would make it an impossible closed room to them. Erika had dashed throughout the mansion to confirm alibis or something. If she noticed that the chain was set on this room, there would probably be an uproar which would end in them cutting the chain and searching the room. If that happened, Natsuhi would be found hiding in the closet right away. It would be easy to honestly confess as to why she had been hiding. However, that man had insisted that she not reveal that. If she did talk, she might be endangering her husband...

Thinking of it that way, the chain... no, even setting the lock might be a bad idea. That's right. This room was unlocked when I came here. If it were to suddenly become locked, it's conceivable that it might catch someone's attention. It's better if I don't do anything unnecessary... That man only told me to hide...



I hate doing it, but I can't disobey. I undid those two precious locks, went into the dimly lit closet filled with the smell of old wood, and managed to close the door from the inside. Pitch black. It reminded me of when I was young, when I used to hide somewhere and then surprise my mother, but that peaceful recollection wasn't enough to kill off my anxiety.

It really is pitch black. From here, I won't even be able to check my watch to see if an hour has passed. I'll probably need to open the door a crack every once in a while to let in enough light for my watch. For now, I'll crouch down here.

I thought about clutching my knees, but it hurt my back when I tried. I'm not as young as I used to be. Even though I was made to do a PE crouch in every PE class as a grade schooler, I now have to struggle just to sit down. Just crouching down here for an hour will probably hurt a lot...



I can't believe... I'll be hiding in the darkness for a full hour, with nothing to hear except the wind and rain. Ironically, Natsuhi had made Jessica do the exact same thing in the past. She had done it to scold Jessica's persistent bad habits and teach her a lesson when she was a little girl. She had thought that making Jessica stay put in the darkness would sprout a desire to reflect on her mistakes and that, this way, she would understand what she had done wrong.

...It almost... feels like I'm being made to do the same thing. If that's the true purpose of this hide-and-seek...

"...How naive of me."

This must be my naivety, the thought that if their goal is to make me repent, nothing will happen here during this hour... Uncertainty and fear of that man's shadow are not what I need right now. Will someone suddenly come to this room, open this closet, and do something horrible to me now that I've come here in total secrecy as promised?

That's what I should be worrying about. The culprit, or one of his accomplices, is very close by. If they weren't, they wouldn't be able to observe me so thoroughly.



BGM: Minute Darkness

The culprit hid an eerie card with Fall written on it in my room. My personal room is always locked. That trick wouldn't have been possible without a key. Instead of believing that they obtained the key when the servants weren't looking, it's much more realistic to assume that one of the servants lent the culprit a hand...

"But, wh, why... did they know that Fall is my favorite season...? It's creepy..."

The thought that this mystery man might be peeking into my heart sent goosebumps running across my whole body... It's true that I like Fall, but I don't say that out loud. I don't think anyone's ever heard me say it. If I asked even my husband what my favorite season is, he would probably be stuck for an answer.

...N, no. Just once, I told it to a single person... That's right. Shannon...



...So, the culprit, or one of their accomplices, has to be Shannon...!

"The fact that I like Fall can only be known by Shannon... In that case, this is clear proof that Shannon is involved...! That card with Fall on it is proof...! Incredible... Even though she's served the family for 10 years..."

I trembled and shook with rage. Didn't Kinzo once say that anger is the fastest sedative to cure fear and uncertainty? It's easy to tell the most fearful humans from within a crowd. They're always the first to get angry. I remember him telling me that. So I realized that this anger was a sign that I was actually frightened, and I tried my best to remain calm...

...However, this is a vital clue for turning things around. Shannon may not be reliable as a servant, but if she's an accomplice used by that mystery man, this might actually be convenient. A weak-willed girl. If I threaten her, she'll probably spill the name of the mastermind in an instant. I'll secretly tell the police about this. It might become a big clue towards arresting the culprit.

"...That card was probably meant to surprise me and control me, but he's actually dug his own grave."



This is unshakable proof that she's working with the culprit... Though I'd thought this time in the closet would crush me with uncertainty and uneasiness, it's actually given me the start of a counterattack. If I wasn't given this time in the darkness, I probably wouldn't have noticed this.

I'm almost grateful to the culprit for making up this foolish game. My mood brightened. I still can't guarantee that my husband is safe, but I'll definitely take him back and force the culprit to face judgment... I gripped my fists tightly, and further strengthened my resolve to avoid losing this fight at any cost...



BGM: Dead Angle

At that time, I heard the sudden sound of someone trying to force the locked door open, and my heart leapt.



The voice was Hideyoshi's. I heard a quiet voice, as though he was talking to himself, coming from what was probably the hallway. Apparently, he had thought it was locked and tried to unlock it, but had ended up locking the unlocked door instead. Once again, there was the sound of the lock turning, and now, the door opened with a faint sound...

...Why... is Hideyoshi-san in this room...?!



Then came what seemed to be the sound of him setting the chain. Don't tell me... Hideyoshi-san... is the mastermind...?! Or else, an accomplice...?! Is he planning to do something to me in this room...?

It would take some time to unlock the door from this side, much less to remove the chain. If Hideyoshi-san doesn't intend to let me escape from here, he won't give me enough time to undo the chain... In that case, if he opens the closet door... and sees me crouching here pathetically... just what kind of fearsome words will he say...?

I don't want to be found, I don't want to be found... I beg you, pass right on by the closet door... Please keep going into the center of the room...! My head was so filled with a throbbing sound that it felt like it was about to explode, and I almost missed hearing his noisy footsteps. So when I heard a clunking sound coming from the center of the room, I finally realized that he'd passed by the closet, and was deeply relieved.



As he whispered, he did something that made a clunking sound. He was probably closing the shutters on the windows. Just in case? In case I try to escape out the window...? No, that can't be it. That's right. When I left the parlor, everyone was talking about possibly taking a break. After all, several murders had occurred. And the weather was bad. There would be nothing abnormal about resting in a guest room here instead of returning to the guesthouse.

In that case, locking up and closing the shutters to guarantee safety was the proper course of action to take. When he finished closing the shutters, there was a *thunk* as though he had flopped over on the bed. It was surprising how much of the situation could be grasped just by the sound.

...What's going on here...?



BGM: None

No, that probably... isn't true. He probably planned on me hiding here, but Hideyoshi-san coming to take a rest here must have been outside the scope of his plan. Thinking about it that way, having him in the room might be odd, but it also might guarantee my own safety. Unlike his wife, Hideyoshi-san is the kind of person I can talk to. If Eva-san comes, things will probably get complicated. Maybe I should slip out of this closet now while he's still alone, reveal everything to just him, and ask for help... But if I do that, my husband might be killed... Until my husband is released, I shouldn't do anything rash... Should I go out and talk, or hide in here?

Moaning from my headache and biting my lower lip, I resisted the urge to crawl out of here... Even if I talk with Hideyoshi-san, I don't know where my husband is being held. I'm sure the traitor who's observing me is nearby. Just talking to him won't solve everything. I suspect that Shannon is the traitor, but that's no proof that Gohda and the others aren't. It's all useless... I guess... leaving here and confessing is too dangerous after all...

Eventually, I heard a strange, sobbing voice. Whose voice was it...?



BGM: Spiral

Hideyoshi, who had lost his only son, was finally able to shed tears and cry... now that he was all alone like this...

...Thinking that he needed to support Eva in her distress, he had acted as though he alone was standing firm. However, he had as good a right as anyone to cry. And now that he had found a place where no one could see his tears, he finally let himself do that... And I've... lost my daughter. I haven't seen her corpse with my own eyes, so it still doesn't really feel like she's dead. But if the one who carried her off was the culprit and he had some repulsive motive for doing it... just thinking about it makes it feel as though my chest will tear itself apart...

The reason I'm hiding in here now is that I'm thinking more about my still living husband than my dead daughter. But if I were given the chance, I'd be wailing at the top of my lungs too. However, I still can't let myself do that. It isn't because the man from 19 years ago told me to hide. It's because... I'm the final... head of the Ushiromiya family...



...At the very, very end, when it's all over... I probably won't be able to prevent his ascension as the head. And when everything regarding the distribution of the inheritance is revealed, the Ushiromiya family honor and glory passed down from Father... will plummet to the earth. So, I am the final head. Battler-kun will probably inherit the remaining wealth of the Ushiromiya family. However, its history and honor... will all end with my generation...

Therefore, I am the final head. I must not cry. Not yet. Until I get my husband back... and avenge my daughter, I will not be allowed to shed tears... In the closet, I silently hung my head as I listened to Hideyoshi-san's sobs...



BGM: Play

Huh?! My heart leapt. Hideyoshi-san, who must have been lying prostrate on the bed, made a sound as though he had bounded to his feet. D, did he notice me...?

"How did you get in here...? Wh, what's that...? W, wait a second...! Wai... ngahh, mmpph-"

He was clearly in a struggle with someone. Who could it be?! No, it doesn't matter who it is. It's probably the culprit, and they're probably trying to take Hideyoshi-san's life...!

Shouldn't I jump out of here and help him...? If I can't help him, shouldn't I call for help...? No, but... if I do something like that, I'll be questioned about why I was hiding here...! However, if Hideyoshi-san gets killed like this... No, now isn't the time to be saying that... At this rate, he'll certainly be killed...! I'll jump out of here and help him right now...!

Aaah, but if I do that, even if I can save Hideyoshi-san, I might be abandoning my husband's life. Hideyoshi-san's life and my husband's life. How sinful it would be to try and weigh those against each other...!!

At that time, there was a loud sound of the door opening and the chain being pulled tight. Someone was trying to open the door despite the chain being set.



"...Eva, aah, gwaaaaaaggghhhh...!!"
"Dear? What?! What's happening?! Dear?! Open up!!"
"Ggh, gggh... ggh..."
"Open up! Open up, dear!! S, someooooooooooone!!"

She opened and closed the door over and over again with all her might, but of course, she couldn't snap the chain. Eva-san called for help in a loud voice and raced through the hallway... By this time, the room had settled back into silence, and that earlier feeling of Hideyoshi being in a noisy struggle had disappeared completely. What's... going on here...?! So, right now, I'm in the same room as the murderer who killed Hideyoshi-san...?! In that case, the culprit should try to escape from the room as soon as possible, so why are they hiding in here...?!

I haven't heard anything... nothing that might have been the culprit who attacked Hideyoshi-san rushing away. No matter how much I strain my ears, I can't sense anyone in the room. In fact, it's so silent that it makes what happened just a second ago feel like an illusion.



I don't even know what I'm scared of anymore. If only I could just melt away into the darkness of this closet...! I mustn't remain in this room any longer. I get the feeling I have more to worry about than just my personal safety... But what should I do?! I don't even know if it's a good idea to leave this closet...!!

Eventually, the clamber of many rushing footsteps approached.

Quinn2win fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Apr 12, 2017

DentD
Aug 13, 2015

I can predict the future! And you're going to be OKAY.

ProfessorProf posted:


"Stop it, Eva...! Natsuhi-san, you're probably a little tired too. Of course, so are we. Why don't we take it easy for a bit...?"
"...Seriously. We're a little too high-strung."
"Aunt Natsuhi... Where are you going...?"


I think Rudolf morphed into Ronove again for a brief moment, Prof.

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?
8:30 AM is my favorite time of day now! I like to get to work early and get settled so I'll be ready :allears:

Natsuhi's life: still sucks. And now not only has another murder happened without an alibi for her, but she was forced into the same vicinity as the murder... at this point I'm just waiting for somebody to open the door and yell GOTCHA to make the misery complete.

So the only one Natsuhi told about liking fall was Shannon, eh? (And in red, too... I guess either anyone can use red now, or some helpful narrator is now infusing the red in anything helpful to give the story direction) This is more fuel for the "Shannon is involved somehow" fire, and lends credence to my idea that the calls were made, if not by her, than on information that she gave. I know I toot a couple of horns, and I'm sorry if it gets boring, but... looking at this from the realm of mundane possibility, Beatrice cannot be one person. That's where Occam's Razor leads me in this matter: if the murders are non-magical, then they have to have been done by conspiracy, and this scenario is no exception: Natsuhi was forcibly conscripted into it as a fall guy. But this conspiracy has a core, and that core is... This update points to Shannon, but with this new information presented of Cliff Baby, I find myself gravitating once again to my Kanon theory. I mean, if nothing else, It would certainly explain his distaste for Natsuhi and Krauss- and hey, apparently Jessica used to get locked up in a closet when she was young by Natsuhi as a punishment (loving hell, Natsuhi, that's terrible :smith: ) which I doubt would make Kanon very happy either. In fact I half wonder if maybe Jessica is alive somewhere and that she and Kanon are in on this together to gently caress with Natsuhi, only it was confirmed in red that she was dead.

resurgam40 fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Apr 11, 2017

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011
Ok, big change here. For the first time the game now cares about who. Up until now all the mysteries were about what was possible, but the finger never got pointed at anybody. And this episode we have Shannon accused by Natsuhi, and Natsuhi framed for Hideyoshi's murder. For all the trickery we've seen, nobody was ever framed before.

Shannon's accusation here means she's almost certainly innocent - the first suspect is never the real suspect. Unless the author is deliberately playing against that trope, of course. As was pointed out when it happened, there are only four seasons. It's easy to hide four pieces of paper in a room and then, when the target reveals the answer, direct them to the right paper.

Something I missed before: Natsuhi's caller was "created by Lambdadelta." Does that mean he doesn't really exist and is just noise in the story? Ericka was dropped on the board, as it were, for this game, and she clearly has a special status, crossing over between the human and witch worlds. Presumably the caller is the same way? At the least, I have to think it's a strong suggestion that the caller isn't a character we've had all along. He could also be immune to the "no person" red text.

By the way, has anybody speculated on the name Lamdbadelta? I'm sure if I start googling I'll be spoiled instantly. The delta symbol is usually used as change or difference, while lambda gets used for, well, too many things. Any ideas?

avoraciopoctules
Oct 22, 2012

What is this kid's DEAL?!

Just caught up with the LP again after a while of doing other stuff. It's definitely pretty cool to see how things have changed now that the murder island loop has gone slightly off-kilter. I look forward to seeing where Umineko goes next. Thanks again to ProfessorProf for taking the time to give us such a high quality LP!

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?

BurningStone posted:

By the way, has anybody speculated on the name Lamdbadelta? I'm sure if I start googling I'll be spoiled instantly. The delta symbol is usually used as change or difference, while lambda gets used for, well, too many things. Any ideas?

Higurashi spoilers:

The culprit of Higurashi, Takano Miyo, writes her name as 鷹野 三四, and bears an uncanny resemblance to Lambdadelta. 三四 is the kanji for the numbers 3 and 4.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

ProfessorProf posted:

Higurashi spoilers:

The culprit of Higurashi, Takano Miyo, writes her name as 鷹野 三四, and bears an uncanny resemblance to Lambdadelta. 三四 is the kanji for the numbers 3 and 4.

Which raises the question, why isn't her name Gammadelta? Unless I'm missing an obvious implication there.


BurningStone posted:

Shannon's accusation here means she's almost certainly innocent - the first suspect is never the real suspect. Unless the author is deliberately playing against that trope, of course. As was pointed out when it happened, there are only four seasons. It's easy to hide four pieces of paper in a room and then, when the target reveals the answer, direct them to the right paper.

Or she just told someone. I mean, as a thread, we've picked out enough evidence to indicate that she is involved somehow (though I still don't see her killing George), but this is at best circumstantial.

E:

BurningStone posted:

Ok, big change here. For the first time the game now cares about who. Up until now all the mysteries were about what was possible, but the finger never got pointed at anybody. And this episode we have Shannon accused by Natsuhi, and Natsuhi framed for Hideyoshi's murder. For all the trickery we've seen, nobody was ever framed before.

So, the question becomes, is this purely to sow dissent among the people left, before the killer picks them off one by one, or do they genuinely want Natsuhi to suffer? Motivationally, I guess I'm asking: Does it matter that it was Natsuhi? Or would anyone have served the same purpose, and Natsuhi was the easiest patsy?

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Apr 11, 2017

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

CottonWolf posted:

Which raises the question, why isn't her name Gammadelta? Unless I'm missing an obvious implication there.

Wikipedia says that "in the system of Greek numerals lambda has a value of 30".

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I'm an idiot. I was only reading it as 3 and 4 rather than together as 34.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


So presumably they're going to cut their way into the room and find a dead Hideyoshi and a very suspicious Natsuhi. And no one else.

Possibilities:
Natsuhi did it
Hideyoshi did it, either suicide or faking (probably not faking)
The door wasn't really locked (we just heard him locking it and Eva being unable to open it, plus however it eventually opens, but those could be lies)
Some kind of trap or accident or poison
???

We also have the question of how they directed Hideyoshi to that room. Maybe he tried lots of rooms and that was the only unlocked one. Or he was in on it, or he was blackmailed into going there, or someone recommended it.

Qrr fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Apr 11, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Qrr posted:

So presumably they're going to cut their way into the room and find a dead Hideyoshi and a very suspicious Natsuhi. And no one else.

Possibilities:
Natsuhi did it
Hideyoshi did it, either suicide or faking (probably not faking)
The door wasn't really locked (we just heard him locking it and Eva being unable to open it, plus however it eventually opens, but those could be lies)
Some kind of trap or accident or poison
???

We also have the question of how they directed Hideyoshi to that room. Maybe he tried lots of rooms and that was the only unlocked one. Or he was in on it, or he was blackmailed into going there, or someone recommended it.

Hideyoshi says "Who are you?", which indicates a person, rather than a trap. Or possibly a hallucinogenic drug, assuming that doesn't violate Knox's 4th. It also means that the person was either disguised, or someone we've not met. Either's possible. If the Kanon=Shannon theory is true, then we have a spare person (I don't think the Kanon=Shannon theory is true!), and otherwise someone's been dressing up as Beatrice in previous episodes, so disguises are definitely on the cards.

I'd go with the possibility that the murderer was in the room the whole time. Natsuhi didn't hear anyone enter before Hideyoshi, and Hideyoshi chains the door. (Assuming, as you say, that he did lock the door.) Therefore, if entry is impossible, they must have already been there.

E: Though Natsuhi doing it would be the ultimate narrator loving with us answer, and considering who the narrator is...

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Apr 11, 2017

MagusDraco
Nov 11, 2011

even speedwagon was trolled
It was the small bombs. They've become sentient.

Nah but really someone was probably hiding in the room before Natsuhi even came in there. Maybe under the bed or something.

thetruegentleman
Feb 5, 2011

You call that potato a Trump avatar?

THIS is a Trump Avatar!
If Shannon is involved, Kanon is almost certainly involved as well: that also means that George and Jessica are suspects, as both of them could easily be manipulated by the power of love. Better still, if the culprit knew about the gold, they could easily control the servants by either bribing them or claiming to be the head of the house thanks to "solving" the riddle.

Unfortunately, that means that almost half of all the people in the mansion could either be culprits, or facilitators *of* the culprit(s): throw in the fact that the servants can manipulate almost anyone, while and George and Jessica could do the same for their parents, and we have a huge circus of lies to contend with.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Qrr posted:

We also have the question of how they directed Hideyoshi to that room. Maybe he tried lots of rooms and that was the only unlocked one. Or he was in on it, or he was blackmailed into going there, or someone recommended it.

The directing question's harder. I mean, why was he crying? Was it because George is dead? Or was it because he's guilty, or was coerced into helping? I still think the "Who are you?" renders suicide unlikely. But if he'd been coerced in a similar way to Natsuhi, to come to that room, possibly after being forced into helping with the murders, everything makes sense. We already know there's something fairly sus about Hideyoshi from episode 3, so it's not impossible he's in on it.

I think you must be right though. No matter how, someone must have told him to go there. Otherwise, there was a chance he wouldn't go for alone time and everything's foiled.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Apr 11, 2017

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011
We've also been told he's going to be killed by a silver stake in the back. Makes anything but a planned murder hard to believe.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I'd not spotted that it was in the back. That's interesting. He was clearly looking at someone in the room. That implies an attack from the front. So either he fled, and they attacked his exposed back, there were two people in the room, and while one of them distracted him, the other attacks from behind, or it was added post-mortem. Or I suppose, he'd already been stabbed in the back when he came into the room, which explains the crying. If he was stabbed in the back outside, fled into the nearest room and locked in behind him, collapsed on the bed and started crying in pain/fear, and unbeknowest to him an accomplice was waiting inside to finish him off, that would work too. But at that point, presumably you'd pull the stake out.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


CottonWolf posted:

The directing question's harder. I mean, why was he crying? Was it because George is dead? Or was it because he's guilty, or was coerced into helping? I still think the "Who are you?" renders suicide unlikely. But if he'd been coerced in a similar way to Natsuhi, to come to that room, possibly after being forced into helping with the murders, everything makes sense. We already know there's something fairly sus about Hideyoshi from episode 3, so it's not impossible he's in on it.

I think you must be right though. No matter how, someone must have told him to go there. Otherwise, there was a chance he wouldn't go for alone time and everything's foiled.

I think there's decent mileage in "it was the only unlocked room". Then someone just needs to push him towards alone time, which is less obvious than pushing him to a specific room, and because they keep all their rooms locked (also, why the heck do they keep most of the rooms in the house locked? Weird), he'd only be able to go into that one.


As for someone hiding in the room and attacking him, I'm suspicious of it. It runs into the usual closed room issue - where did they go afterwards? Are they now hiding in the room? If so, when the other people show up at the room later, will the hiding person try to blend with them or will they keep hiding? Or is the room not actually closed somehow? Maybe they also ordered Natsuhi to lock the door after they leave and we don't get to see that part.

Really the easiest case is that Natsuhi did it. I imagine at some point we'll get red that says the didn't, but I'm not invested in defending her so why not go for the low hanging fruit. We already know that she's not a reliable narrator, what with talking to Kinzo and Beatrice.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

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Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Qrr posted:

I think there's decent mileage in "it was the only unlocked room". Then someone just needs to push him towards alone time, which is less obvious than pushing him to a specific room, and because they keep all their rooms locked (also, why the heck do they keep most of the rooms in the house locked? Weird), he'd only be able to go into that one.


As for someone hiding in the room and attacking him, I'm suspicious of it. It runs into the usual closed room issue - where did they go afterwards? Are they now hiding in the room? If so, when the other people show up at the room later, will the hiding person try to blend with them or will they keep hiding? Or is the room not actually closed somehow? Maybe they also ordered Natsuhi to lock the door after they leave and we don't get to see that part.

Really the easiest case is that Natsuhi did it. I imagine at some point we'll get red that says the didn't, but I'm not invested in defending her so why not go for the low hanging fruit. We already know that she's not a reliable narrator, what with talking to Kinzo and Beatrice.

I'll point out an interesting thing - he had a key and apparently expected the door to be locked. The question is if he's going to still have that key when his body's found.

"Who are you" might be Hideyoshi​'s reaction to hearing movement behind him in a supposedly locked room, and may not necessarily mean it was someone he didn't know.

Another interesting thing is that he apparently sees the Stake at some point in time.

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