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uncop posted:I don't trust Melenchon to have learned the Syriza lesson, that the only way to do credible leftist politics in the Eurozone is to switch currencies ASAP, start the exit process if the EU won't have it, and wipe your rear end with the Eurozone rules. It's also possible that he'd have to organize a purge of the Ministry of Economy (having monetarists as your primary source of economic advice is politically suicidal for any leftist) while resisting the allure to believe that Marxists know anything useful about how to organize an economy. I think Mélenchon has said that he wants to use the rules of the Stability Pact for toilet paper from day 1 of his presidency (and also cease to apply the posted workers directive) as a basis to renegotiate the EU treaties, and has been talking about a Plan B (leave the euro, seize control of the Banque de France, and institute capital controls) exactly because of the Syriza lesson. The thinking is that other member states would want to avoid such a scenario because of France's economic importance in the EU, thus giving him the leverage that Syriza didn't have. Of course Syriza realised that switching currencies would be an economic disaster and they probably didn't have the capacity to pull it off anyway. I'm not sure if Mélenchon would see it the same way.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:06
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Andrast posted:I don't think Hollande's backing is a positive thing Yeah I hope Hollande backs Macron; Macron has been desperately trying to pretend he had nothing to do with him.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:08
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Hollande offers his full support, which is technically asking you to support him and the crushing weight of his failure.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:16
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God a Le Pen Mélenchon standoff would be fun to see. Still not gonna happen.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:17
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Apparently the bomb that went off in Germany went alongside a letter containing demands to stop being involved in US military actions in Syria and close Rammstein airbase, which really narrows the perpetrators down to Literally Anyone Except Perhaps The Ghost of Helmut Schmidt (rip).
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Apr 12, 2017 11:19
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Pluskut Tukker posted:I think Mélenchon has said that he wants to use the rules of the Stability Pact for toilet paper from day 1 of his presidency (and also cease to apply the posted workers directive) as a basis to renegotiate the EU treaties, and has been talking about a Plan B (leave the euro, seize control of the Banque de France, and institute capital controls) exactly because of the Syriza lesson. The thinking is that other member states would want to avoid such a scenario because of France's economic importance in the EU, thus giving him the leverage that Syriza didn't have. At this point it feels like he's saying "stop pointing that gun at me or I'm going to try and grab it."
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Apr 12, 2017 11:19
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I'd laugh, but they kinda pulled the same "He's a blind idealist that will only bring ruin and debt" poo poo with Hamon and that turned out pretty well for them. Sure they had the assist from Valls and his clique of neoliberal dipshits on that one, but I see BFMTV and Le Figaro redoubling their efforts to make up for the fact Mélenchon isn't running alongside lying rat bastards.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:24
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double nine posted:God a Le Pen Mélenchon standoff would be fun to see. Still not gonna happen. I think it's the most likely scenario if Melenchon makes it to the 2nd round. Le Pen's vote share is the most static and it's hard to imagine a scenario where she is pushed into 3rd place. I feel like Melenchon is going to overperform his polling as his polling "fundamentals" (honesty, authority, stature bla bla bla) are good so late deciders are likely to break for him.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:35
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unpacked robinhood posted:Hollande looking like he's about to back Macron, what a disappointing idiot holland stealth supporting melenchon
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Apr 12, 2017 11:36
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ElNarez posted:I see BFMTV and Le Figaro redoubling their efforts to make up for the fact Mélenchon isn't running alongside lying rat bastards.  You don't say
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Apr 12, 2017 11:36
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Pluskut Tukker posted:I think Mélenchon has said that he wants to use the rules of the Stability Pact for toilet paper from day 1 of his presidency (and also cease to apply the posted workers directive) as a basis to renegotiate the EU treaties, and has been talking about a Plan B (leave the euro, seize control of the Banque de France, and institute capital controls) exactly because of the Syriza lesson. The thinking is that other member states would want to avoid such a scenario because of France's economic importance in the EU, thus giving him the leverage that Syriza didn't have. France is in a way better position to strong-arm the EU than Greece, like better by a scale of magnitude's.
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Apr 12, 2017 11:46
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Pluskut Tukker posted:I think Mélenchon has said that he wants to use the rules of the Stability Pact for toilet paper from day 1 of his presidency (and also cease to apply the posted workers directive) as a basis to renegotiate the EU treaties, ... I've got a bit of trouble understanding the part about the posted workers directive. From what I know from my in-laws as well a bit of quick googling, "applying the posted workers directive" means, that employees from country A (working for a company in country A), who are on work assignment in country B get at least the minimum requirements for work compensation etc. of country B, right? So if my employer from Slovakia would send me for a project to France, I'd at least be entitled to French minimum wage, vacation days, maternity leave etc, even if that's more than I usually get in SK? Which as far as I can see is a good thing for the workers ? Why would a leftist cease to apply that?
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Apr 12, 2017 11:47
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I'm going to start a noisepunk band called Le poo poo Storm uncop posted:I don't trust Melenchon to have learned the Syriza lesson, that the only way to do credible leftist politics in the Eurozone is to switch currencies ASAP, start the exit process if the EU won't have it, and wipe your rear end with the Eurozone rules. It's also possible that he'd have to organize a purge of the Ministry of Economy (having monetarists as your primary source of economic advice is politically suicidal for any leftist) while resisting the allure to believe that Marxists know anything useful about how to organize an economy. They simply called Syriza's bluff, telling them to try and exit if they dared and that theyd sabotage them if they did. The best case scenario would be several (preferably topographically adjacent) EU countries electing leftist governments and just seceding and immediately reforming into some kind of alternative EU institution with fair taxation policies and so on. If Europe just falls apart into different countries with closed borders again that's also going to be a big problem. Doing it together or threatening to do so unless the debts are canceled and labor and tax laws are reformed is probably the only way short of autarky and balkanization. Shibawanko fucked around with this message at 11:56 on Apr 12, 2017 |
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Apr 12, 2017 11:49
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goethe42 posted:I've got a bit of trouble understanding the part about the posted workers directive. Posted workers pay social insurance contributions in their home country (e.g. Slovakia), not in their host country. This makes them much cheaper. Also, posted workers are not necessarily going to be aware of what their rights are with regard to working time and vacation, while they may also be put in systematically lower pay scales than they would be entitled to based on their education and skills level. Companies from the core may set up phony temping agencies in Eastern European countries simply to claim that their employees from those countries are 'posted workers'. So there's a lot of potential and actual abuse and it's plausible that the PWD has served to undercut workers and hold wages down in some sectors in member states with more advanced social systems. So while it may possibly be a good deal for workers from Slovakia, it's not necessarily one for French workers. I am not sure if ditching the directive entirely is the best way to go but it certainly is in need of reform. Or at least member states should do a better job of enforcing their labour laws. MiddleOne posted:France is in a way better position to strong-arm the EU than Greece, like better by a scale of magnitude's. That is certainly true, but it's still not more powerful than Germany, let alone the financial markets. Pluskut Tukker fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Apr 12, 2017 |
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Apr 12, 2017 11:59
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Hambilderberglar posted:Le poo poo storm? I wonder what the Académie Française has to say about this. It should be written as one word and the french borrowing should have an e at the end, signed les immortels
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Apr 12, 2017 12:15
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goethe42 posted:I've got a bit of trouble understanding the part about the posted workers directive. When you hire a worker, you pay two things:
The idea is if you hire a posted worker, you pay wages according to the law of the host country, and welfare costs according to the law of the worker's home country. Now there are two interesting things with that scheme. Welfare costs in Eastern European countries are a lot lower than in Western European countries. So from the onset, even if you play by the rules and do pay the worker's full wage, you're still saving money through reducing your welfare contribution. Second interesting thing is that, well, each country's tax office is independent and they don't share their data. If you hire in France a Polish or Romanian worker and don't send the welfare tax to Poland or Romania, who is going to know? French tax office won't get welfare contribution but it's normal and expected, so they won't raise a fuss; Polish or Romanian tax office won't get welfare contribution but they don't even know their citizen got a job, so they won't raise a fuss either. Finally, as an added bonus: posted workers don't actually know the law of their host country. If the work week is 35 hours and the minimum wage is 9.76 per hour, but you get your worker to work for 50 hours per week for 800 per month, who are they going to complain to? They don't know they're massively underpaid. It's even better if they don't even know the language, so that if there's a work inspector who comes to check that the employer respects the laws, the posted workers will not be able to answer any question and so the employer's cheating will remain unaddressed. So basically, the directive isn't bad in its principle, it's bad in that it allows and encourages massive fraud; just like 99% of EU-mandated reforms. Agnosticnixie posted:It should be written as one word and the french borrowing should have an e at the end, signed les immortels I believe the literal translation "tempęte de merde" would be perfectly fine. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 12:20 on Apr 12, 2017 |
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Apr 12, 2017 12:18
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ElNarez posted:I'd laugh, but they kinda pulled the same "He's a blind idealist that will only bring ruin and debt" poo poo with Hamon and that turned out pretty well for them. Sure they had the assist from Valls and his clique of neoliberal dipshits on that one, but I see BFMTV and Le Figaro redoubling their efforts to make up for the fact Mélenchon isn't running alongside lying rat bastards. I don't think Hamon's relative unpopularity is the result of any smear campaign (I don't think anyone who was going to vote for him would take a Figaro columnist at face value anyway...). He's just a fairly bland candidate in an election where much more exciting (for better or for worse) options exist for the working/lower-middle class and leftie intelligentsia.
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Apr 12, 2017 13:23
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 Le Pen wins in a run off with MelenchonAnd then leftism finally dies 
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Apr 12, 2017 14:10
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I wish Hamon had been the ps candidate in 2012
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Apr 12, 2017 14:22
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Kurtofan posted:I wish Hamon had been the ps candidate in 2012 He'd have lost I reckon
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Apr 12, 2017 14:52
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I think the really weird things will start with the legislative elections. There are a lot of career politicians (like Copé and Royale) not getting in the election this cycle (it's pretty weird, it's like they expect something bad to happen) and some reaching old age. I am from René Dosičre's constituency and he is not participating in the race this year, despite years of great service and there will be some weak rear end candidates to replace him.
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Apr 12, 2017 15:04
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:
Elabe have polled that and he beat Le Pen 61-39 which is a bigger margin than Fillon in the same poll.
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Apr 12, 2017 17:53
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Toplowtech posted:I think the really weird things will start with the legislative elections. There are a lot of career politicians (like Copé and Royale) not getting in the election this cycle (it's pretty weird, it's like they expect something bad to happen) and some reaching old age. I am from René Dosičre's constituency and he is not participating in the race this year, despite years of great service and there will be some weak rear end candidates to replace him. Odds of having legislative elections in the event of a JLM or LePen victory are not THAT high anyway...
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Apr 12, 2017 18:15
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https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/12/borussia-dortmund-blasts-police-investigate-islamist-link-to-attack I know it is no laughing matter but "Islamist spectrum" is a weird choice of words *pictures a ten year old yelling about killing infidels on public transport* Mother: "I am really sorry, he has Islamism"
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Apr 12, 2017 18:18
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It is going to be a close race, hell even Macron seems to be slowly dropping in the polls.
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Apr 12, 2017 18:23
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DarkCrawler posted:https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/12/borussia-dortmund-blasts-police-investigate-islamist-link-to-attack "Islamic screeching"
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Apr 12, 2017 19:05
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http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2017/04/nightmare-optionquote:What if the French second round pits Mélenchon against Le Pen?  also ahahahahaha at citigroup putting fillon at 30% how are the british stupid enough to keep trusting betting markets to predict elections? icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 22:25 on Apr 12, 2017 |
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Apr 12, 2017 22:22
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Pinch Me Im Meming posted:Odds of having legislative elections in the event of a JLM or LePen victory are not THAT high anyway... I'm laughing at you real hard rn
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Apr 12, 2017 22:39
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icantfindaname posted:http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2017/04/nightmare-option The betting markets actually have Fillon's chances at about half that so gently caress knows how citigroup are modelling it. The dumbest thing in the article is actually this though: quote:Emmanuel Macron of the centre-left
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Apr 13, 2017 00:36
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The sad thing is, that's what they really believe.
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Apr 13, 2017 00:43
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I'm just happy that no matter whether he wins or not Melenchon has managed to give a bunch of hack journos conniptions.
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Apr 13, 2017 00:47
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The Economist is an embarrassment. It is so bad online.
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Apr 13, 2017 06:51
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Please don't spook the markets
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Apr 13, 2017 09:18
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It's bad form to spook your prey, makes a quick kill difficult.
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Apr 13, 2017 09:47
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His Divine Shadow posted:It's bad form to spook your prey, makes a quick kill difficult. Halal meat is butchered unsedated and the panic and pain supposedly gives extra flavour. Why not do the same to the markets? Extra bonus if you use the term Halal.
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Apr 13, 2017 09:54
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If you think The Economist calling Macron 'centre-left' is bad, get a load of this article in Politico describing IMF director Christine Lagarde's speech calling for help to workers displace by automation and globalization as her 'getting her socialist groove on".
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Apr 13, 2017 09:55
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Please don't scare the market otherwise all the imaginary money will evaporate and you'll have to bail them out, again
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Apr 13, 2017 10:24
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nimby posted:Halal meat is butchered unsedated and the panic and pain supposedly gives extra flavour. Why not do the same to the markets? Extra bonus if you use the term Halal. Stress hormones are actually healthy for you, who knew?
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Apr 13, 2017 15:57
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nimby posted:Halal meat is butchered unsedated and the panic and pain supposedly gives extra flavour. Why not do the same to the markets? Extra bonus if you use the term Halal. Because it's not the market that will experience panic and pain - just look at Greece who destroyed their financial markets.
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Apr 13, 2017 16:48
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GaussianCopula posted:Because it's not the market that will experience panic and pain - just look at Greece who destroyed their financial markets. France has a lot more sway over the market than Greece had.
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Apr 13, 2017 16:54
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