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If you're sensible about your capacity with regards to mortgage repayments (and this means factoring in our current historically low interest rates, and the fact that they will rise), and are buying something that you can live in for 10 years if necessary, then there isn't really such a problem with buying now.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:01
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Solemn Sloth posted:If you're sensible about your capacity with regards to mortgage repayments (and this means factoring in our current historically low interest rates, and the fact that they will rise), and are buying something that you can live in for 10 years if necessary, then there isn't really such a problem with buying now. Pretty much my thought process. We'd be paying the same in Mortgage for what we do in rent now, albeit moving 15-20mins further out of the city (Melbourne). No plans to flip the property, just owner occupy for the foreseeable future. And when the bust comes, which it will, still being able to afford repayments with an interest rate of say, 8% before we need to look at options.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:04
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Any major drop would be preceded by economic conditions that would dwarf the drop in housing anyway.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:15
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You saying it won't go until a bunch of people default?
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Apr 14, 2017 05:40
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I'm easily willing to believe the idea that the Coalition want the housing bubble to burst on Labor's watch and then they can blame them for it. Whenever the Liberals wreck things by stupid tax cuts that slash revenue and cause future budget problems, the effects are delayed enough to only be noticed once they are out of office. With practice they could very well get good at the timing of this.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:44
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Nibbles! posted:If you keep negative gearing it's not really a bubble in the traditional sense, invester money will always be pouring in. There was a column on the ABC that pointed out that because such a significant proportion of property owners are investors now the traditional ideas about what might cause a crash may not apply. For example, investors don't consider an investment property a home that you try and hold onto until you can't afford to pay the mortgage, for them it's about the same as a bunch of shares and if they think it isn't going to increase in value any more they sell and put their money elsewhere. If they see a scheme that grandfathers NG, and think it will cause house prices to stagnate and then slowly fall, they'll try to get in ahead and sell before they have to sit through 3 years of their asset not growing. Which is why I wonder if the bigger, institutional investors might be quietly moving their property on. We came within a whisker of having a Labor government who promised to grandfather NG in power, the polls are even worse now and blind freddy can see that negative gearing/CGTD is blowing up into a huge political issue which may not survive past the next election. Private investors may have drank too deeply from the koolaid for all this to register but maybe some of the bigger investors are taking a more objective view of it (or will soon). It's one thing to ignore APRA's and the RBA's warnings but once the ratings agencies and international banks start weighing in it might start to sink in that there is a bit of a problem brewing.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:58
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gay picnic defence posted:There was a column on the ABC that pointed out that because such a significant proportion of property owners are investors now the traditional ideas about what might cause a crash may not apply. For example, investors don't consider an investment property a home that you try and hold onto until you can't afford to pay the mortgage, for them it's about the same as a bunch of shares and if they think it isn't going to increase in value any more they sell and put their money elsewhere. If they see a scheme that grandfathers NG, and think it will cause house prices to stagnate and then slowly fall, they'll try to get in ahead and sell before they have to sit through 3 years of their asset not growing. Yeah, it's dangerous to underestimate how dramatically investor sentiment can swing. Negative gearing only works if prices are going up and sentiment is that they will continue to go up for the time being. If something triggers a switch in how people view the market then it could all come crashing down very quickly. Once it starts it'll be a self perpetuating cycle as it hits the wider economy which in turn forces more people to sell and further drives prices and the economy down. Of course, I have no idea what the trigger will be or when it will happen but the most recent monthly growth figures (19% in Sydney and 15% for Melbourne) are so ridiculous that I feel we are closer to the end than ever before.  I don't have the time to compare that to current property price graphs but I'd hazard a guess and say we are well into the delusion stage (with the brief period after the GFC where prices declined being the first sell off).
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Apr 14, 2017 06:11
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The difference with standard bubbles and our property market is that it isn't the inflated market itself people are trying to cash in on, it's the tax implications that are driving them to do it. Ours started out with the public cashing in, it was anyone with equity and tax to minimise that benefited from negative gearing. For the market to crash you need, for whatever reason, more people desperate to sell than there are buyers. At best negative gearing will be grandfathered meaning there's no reason to sell, investers will leave the market and all the desperate homebuyers will keep buying at whatever prices are.
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Apr 14, 2017 06:20
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AgentF posted:I'm easily willing to believe the idea that the Coalition want the housing bubble to burst on Labor's watch and then they can blame them for it. Whenever the Liberals wreck things by stupid tax cuts that slash revenue and cause future budget problems, the effects are delayed enough to only be noticed once they are out of office. With practice they could very well get good at the timing of this. If there's any thing the major parties will reach a bipartisan agreement on (other than sending refugees to torture island) it's doing whatever they can to keep the bubble from popping. Both parties are filled with property hoarding aristocrats and a market crash will wipe out their livelihoods, regardless of who takes the blame.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:08
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Nibbles! posted:For the market to crash you need, for whatever reason, more people desperate to sell than there are buyers. At best negative gearing will be grandfathered meaning there's no reason to sell, investers will leave the market and all the desperate homebuyers will keep buying at whatever prices are. On the one hand you're right, bubbles start for different reasons. On the other hand you're ignoring what a bubble is, the loss of rationality about investments and the loans made to acquire them. Buying a string of investment properties and banking up the loans for them is not an unusual situation in the current market. Negative gearing is only part of the story; the underlying problem is being able to make good on the loans. Grandfathering will only help some, but it won't solve the problems a burst bubble presents to the economy. The flow-on effects can be difficult to predict, but its bad news for everyone. I assume Dutton and friends will look after themselves and pretend to be sad. But geez, the anger over this will no less irrational than the bubble itself.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:19
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All property is theft so stop talking about loans for houses and just steal some. https://twitter.com/mickyb273/status/852744309665222656
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Apr 14, 2017 07:27
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Nibbles! posted:The difference with standard bubbles and our property market is that it isn't the inflated market itself people are trying to cash in on, it's the tax implications that are driving them to do it. Anything that causes prices and/or sentiment to fall will put real pressure on investors regardless of the tax benefits they get. This is largely due to the fact that without increases in value negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions quickly lose their appeal. There's no point in being able to reduce your tax by 10k a year if you are losing 20k a year in capital value. More so with rental yields being so low. Additionally, around 40% of investors (who make up something like 40-50% of all lending for property) are using interest only loans. That only increases the markets reliance on capital gains. When the capital gains stop and sentiment shifts then the investors will get out and the bubble will burst.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:29
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Nibbles! posted:The difference with standard bubbles and our property market is that it isn't the inflated market itself people are trying to cash in on, it's the tax implications that are driving them to do it. Negative gearing only makes sense if you can sell your property and make a gain though, otherwise people would be racking up any old tax deductible expense. As soon as investors think that house prices have peaked they'll be offloading them as quick as they can to make sure they maximise their gain.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:29
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Apr 14, 2017 07:31
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Backburner posted:Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has gathered all the backbenchers around the Liberal party room to regale them with an Easter tale of how the resurrection of a former leader saved all of humanity.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:53
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Dee Madigan would be so much cooler if she wasn't a Labor shill.
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Apr 14, 2017 08:43
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would
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Apr 14, 2017 09:30
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which one?
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Apr 14, 2017 09:33
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He'll let you know in his article in The Spectator next week
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Apr 14, 2017 09:42
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gay picnic defence posted:which one? Dane Cook 
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Apr 14, 2017 09:51
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Reports of gunfire at Manus Island https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/852826453540458498 https://twitter.com/themarkjacka/status/852827142295502848
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Apr 14, 2017 11:24
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adamantium|wang posted:Reports of gunfire at Manus Island ABC are saying that it looks like it is the Navy firing The ABC posted:Iranian asylum seeker Benham Satah said Australian security staff were sheltering inside the complex with the detainees.
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Apr 14, 2017 11:29
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ewe2 posted:Buying a string of investment properties and banking up the loans for them is not an unusual situation in the current market. Negative gearing is only part of the story; the underlying problem is being able to make good on the loans.
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Apr 14, 2017 11:35
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gay picnic defence posted:which one? The helicopter hovering just out of shot.
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Apr 14, 2017 11:39
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hiddenmovement posted:I'm keen on the Aussie dollar finally dropping down, but not a massive housing bubble crash. I'm keen on picking up a house at 10 cents on the dollar, and walking to the train station past the begging boomers now living in cardboard boxes, using what little is left of the meagre social services they've spent the last 4 decades voting to slash and shred.
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Apr 14, 2017 11:56
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This from the detained journalist: https://twitter.com/BehrouzBoochani/status/852835133677748225 Sounds like a loving invasion.
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Apr 14, 2017 12:04
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ewe2 posted:This from the detained journalist: 
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Apr 14, 2017 12:10
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https://twitter.com/shanebazzi/status/852841022144995328
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Apr 14, 2017 12:16
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ewe2 posted:This from the detained journalist: This is the missing tweet 
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Apr 14, 2017 12:19
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Finally, it's time for us to annex PNG.
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Apr 14, 2017 12:24
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It's not quite Trump tweets from last week but this doesn't seem to have aged so well either https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/849396043603218435
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Apr 14, 2017 12:25
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Why would the Papuan Navy do this?
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Apr 14, 2017 12:26
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Kurtofan posted:Why would the Papuan Navy do this? Soccer is srs bzns. Maybe the fact that almost everyone on PNG who isn't on the money train that has them there loving hates them being there had something to do with it too. Mostly it was probably just the soccer though.
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Apr 14, 2017 12:29
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Don't worry Wilson security will show us their humanitarian efforts and protect the refugees
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Apr 14, 2017 12:38
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Anidav posted:Don't worry Wilson security will show us their humanitarian efforts and protect the refugees They just turned up for the easy cash. I imagine any Wilson staff on site will be making GBS threads themselves at the idea of having to actually secure the place. Pay for security theatre, get security theatre.
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Apr 14, 2017 12:44
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Kurtofan posted:Why would the Papuan Navy do this? Have you never seen a soccer riot?
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Apr 14, 2017 12:50
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There is something deeply, darkly humorous about this https://twitter.com/AuskarSurbakti/status/852843213152858113
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Apr 14, 2017 12:52
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adamantium|wang posted:There is something deeply, darkly humorous about this YOU CANNOT BE SETTLED IN AUSTRALIA
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Apr 14, 2017 12:55
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adamantium|wang posted:There is something deeply, darkly humorous about this gently caress
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Apr 14, 2017 13:13
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adamantium|wang posted:There is something deeply, darkly humorous about this Make them throw one of their number overboard before any rescue ship allows a pick up. Then burn the boat.
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Apr 14, 2017 13:16
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