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Protests like these come around once a year or so and they usually fizzle out. I'd like to think that this time will be different, but alas... 
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Apr 9, 2017 07:10
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The protests in Caracas yesterday were a repeat of those earlier this week with a couple of notable events. Here are some pictures and videos. The video below shows protesters and National Bolivarian Police officers fighting on the Libertador avenue. A man is yelling “Malditos!” [“drat you!”] at the officers: https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/850759210140934145 Protesters receiving — and responding to — tear gas volleys: https://twitter.com/JRJSantaella/status/850822200231907329 Protesters attacked the Chacao offices of the Tribunal Supremo de Justicia (Supreme Court). As far as I can tell, the fire was contained to the entrance of the building and did not cause major damage: https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/850865845815230465 https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/850805351809261569 At some point, a large group of protesters was forced to flee from security forces by running alongside/across the Guaire river. The Guaire river is a heavily-polluted waterway that runs through Caracas. In the images below, note that the panicked protesters are still being shot at with tear gas: https://twitter.com/anak14/status/850786624925564928 https://twitter.com/DolarToday/status/850830227286745088 Protesters helping each other climb out of the river. Note the tear gas at around the 1:00 mark: https://twitter.com/NuevaVzla_/status/850802895780020225 The men recording this video says, " Look at this! Look at this. Our students escaping through the Guaire from these oppressors. Look at this. And [the authorities] do gently caress all except shoot more gas. There’s lots of money for gas": https://twitter.com/elsabonin/status/850883857733832704 Another notable event was the fact that security forces attacked governor Henrique Capriles' offices. They fired tear gas into the building and caused a small fire that did not appear to result in major damage. Capriles was in the office at the time of the attack: https://twitter.com/VotoPorVzla/status/850818183242149888 https://twitter.com/VotoPorVzla/status/850807198485807104 beer_war posted:Protests like these come around once a year or so and they usually fizzle out. I'd like to think that this time will be different, but alas... Labradoodle posted:This is probably going to be an unpopular opinion, but I'm actually not devastated about this. I mean, ideally the government wouldn't bar anyone from running in elections but Capriles has already served two terms as governor of Miranda and ran twice as a presidential candidate. In any regular country, his political life would already be winding down and his party would be pushing new candidates. However, he's still the preferred candidate for presidential elections, even a year ahead of the actual schedule. We see the same thing with last week's Supreme Court madness. The Supreme Court issues two rulings that effectively kill the National Assembly. This was an unprecedented disaster in the history of Venezuela. Maduro comes out on TV two days later and orders the rulings reversed: the next day, the TSJ -- tail between its legs -- follows the order. Again, we have a result (the rescinding of bad rulings) and a mechanism to achieve the result (an authoritarian order from the executive that demonstrates there is no separation of powers in the country). The result may be good, but the mechanism to achieve it is most certainly not good. Just as Maduro may order the TSJ to rescind rulings in the future that are good, the Comptroller General's office may one day decide to issue bans against politicians that we do like, so the precedent that this sets is dangerous and unacceptable. EDIT: I forgot to add that there was a bit of a scare yesterday over the fact that some of the crowd-dispersal agents used by security forces was red instead of the typically grayish white: https://twitter.com/GomezMarcos/status/850826901887361024 https://twitter.com/NTN24ve/status/850894785829257217 I read all kinds of reactions to the read gas: that it was some kind of knock-out gas, that it was tear gas with a colouring agent to stain clothes to make protesters more visible, etc. From what I can tell the red gas is probably some variation of CN gas (like Mace), whereas the ordinary tear gas is CS gas. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Apr 9, 2017 |
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Apr 9, 2017 14:42
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Chuck Boone posted:
As a Caraqueño this triggers me. El Guaire is really loving filthy with garbage and human excrement and has been so since I was a little kid. It's a silly point to make considering the context but it was the first thing on my mind when I heard people were jumping in. They are jumping in literal poo poo. Chuck, as always a big thanks for being so active in the thread and spreading the word about what's happening. I get my news from different sources and you always seem to be on top of things, and lots of times I hear about stuff from you first. Keep doing the good work.
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Apr 10, 2017 08:57
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Today was the fourth out of the last six days that Venezuela saw widespread anti-regime protests. Caracas saw the most unrest. The toll for the day in Caracas appears to be 57 injured (two seriously from tear gas impacts to the head) and 18 arrested. Some pictures and images from Caracas: Protest activity in the El Rosal neighbourhood: https://twitter.com/FMCenterNoticia/status/851479216956821504 In a regime first, a helicopter was used to drop tear gas on protesters. This happened in El Rosal. Note the tear gas canisters dropping from the sky as a helicopter flies over the scene: https://twitter.com/stalin_gonzalez/status/851520313854709769 The protest in El Rosal got a little too close to the building housing the Ministry of Penitentiaries. Throughout the day, armed men were seen on the rooftop of the building aiming weapons at protesters: https://twitter.com/RichardBlancoOf/status/851521872785264641 The picture below shows a closer shot of the one above (right - note the position of the flag relative to the man). It's hard to tell from the picture if that shotgun fires rubber bullets or lethal ammunition: https://twitter.com/runruneando/status/851575435980713988 Protesters in the Chacaito neighbourhood flee tear gas: https://twitter.com/FMCenterNoticia/status/851471984689131520 Protesters fleeing a volley of tear gas: https://twitter.com/CarlosPaparoni/status/851537081742622720 Two protesters fleeing from authorities cross the Guaire river, this time by crawling atop some kind of drainage pipe: https://twitter.com/CarlosPaparoni/status/851489154311618561 The video below shows National Bolivarian Police in action. The officers take a woman down and then pepper-spray her in spite before just walking away from her: https://twitter.com/paolucci40/status/851430571087724545 The Francisco Fajardo highway in Caracas drowns in tear gas: https://twitter.com/unidadvenezuela/status/851489388865474564 This video was taken by a freelance journalist (Roman Camacho). It shows protesters on the receiving end of tear gas canisters and rubber bullets. The way they whiz by is surreal. Roman was hit in the leg by a tear gas canister here and suffered a broken shin bone: https://twitter.com/RCamachoVzla/status/851547149989031942 This video was recorded in Mañongo, which is close to Valencia. It's hard to tell, but I think that we're hearing automatic weapon fire in this video (both because of how quickly in succession the shots come, and from the screaming of the crowd in response). My grandmother lives in Valencia and every time I see a video from around there my heart sinks: https://twitter.com/YourAnonVzla/status/851510708315598848 At one point, a clinic in the Las Mercedes neighbourhood of Caracas got hit by tear gas: https://twitter.com/delsasolorzano/status/851502786026065920 A newborn baby had to be rushed from the scene, presumably after suffering tear gas inhalation. The man recording says: "Look at this! This is Venezuela! This is what we Venezuelans are living through. gently caress!": https://twitter.com/HaslerIglesias/status/851535458727337985 This is now the most unrest that the country has seen since 2014 (EDIT: I was looking through some old videos and this might not be true. There was lots of unrest in May and June of last year, as well). This week is a holiday in Venezuela (it's Holy Week), and the opposition is calling for more demonstrations throughout the week. Hugoon Chavez posted:As a Caraqueño this triggers me. El Guaire is really loving filthy with garbage and human excrement and has been so since I was a little kid. It's a silly point to make considering the context but it was the first thing on my mind when I heard people were jumping in. They are jumping in literal poo poo. I hear you. I have vivid memories of being in my parent's car driving down the Francisco Fajardo and looking into the Guaire like it was a monster. You'd see all kinds of stuff in there: mattresses, floating islands of garbage heading downstream, etc. And I'm happy to hear that you find the thread informational! Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Apr 11, 2017 |
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Apr 11, 2017 00:46
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Russian state oil company may take control of Citgo Oh, Venezuela-chan 
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Apr 11, 2017 14:57
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Two people have died as a result of the unrest over the last twelve hours or so:
This short clip has been making a splash on social media. The banner reads "#WeDon'tSpeakBadlyOfChavezHere". It's part of a campaign by the PSUV to get people to stop talking badly about Chavez in public places and at their work: https://twitter.com/monicacorrales/status/851600729576013824
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Apr 11, 2017 16:02
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quote:DolarToday ® ✔ @DolarToday Does Bestial mean something different in Venezuela? Because Bestial to me means something great and this tweet becomes really dark.
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Apr 11, 2017 16:07
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Mans posted:Does Bestial mean something different in Venezuela? Because Bestial to me means something great and this tweet becomes really dark. "Bestial" can be used to describe something good or bad. It literally means "savage" but you can use it to mean roughly "of great magnitude" in the way that we say "awesome" in English. So you can say something like, "La emboscada fue bestial" [The ambush was savage/brutal] or "La fiesta fue bestial" [The party was awesome/incredible]. In the tweet that you've quoted, they're using the word in the negative sense. DolarToday is 100% anti-regime, so there's absolutely no chance that they'd glorify violence against protesters.
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Apr 11, 2017 16:13
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Maduro just showed up in the Bolivar state for some event that was transmited through a cadena. The last couple seconds of the broadcast are telling, though, it shows Maduro entirely surrounded by his security detail as he speeds through a crowd, trying to wave, but the crowd is trying to pelt him with eggs or some other stuff. You can tell this wasn't planned because of the swift cut, and how his detail climbs onto the car after he gets hit https://twitter.com/rociosanmiguel/status/851930935444602881 It's really amazing that he thought this would be a good idea considering the last time he tried to do something like this it was in Villa Rosa, where he got mocked and ridiculed by the entire town, and that was during a far quieter time in the country.
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Apr 12, 2017 01:05
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Maduro deserves to go through some severe beating and have a stick inserted into his anus just like they did with Gaddafi when he was captured by Libyan rebels back in 2011.
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Apr 12, 2017 01:40
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Holy smokes! He almost got lynched! This video from the crowd is insane! You can see the crowd is 100% out for his head. They're throwing garbage at him and jeering him and someone is yelling "drat you!": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHxujUOjC2M EDIT: I'm not sure how true this is, but word is that Maduro was in Bolivar state (Ciudad Guayana, to be exact) because he came back from Cuba through there (he'd been in Cuba the whole week). The story is that he came back to Venezuela via Guayana because his people were concerned because coming in to Caracas from Maiquetia, which is where the main international airport is, would be too hot right now. EDIT 2: Maduro almost got Ceausescu'd tonight. This video shows the moment that the angry crowd starts rushing the platform Maduro was on. It was total chaos. The dude just barely made it out alive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRtEa1NwOxg Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 03:07 on Apr 12, 2017 |
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Apr 12, 2017 01:49
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Apparently, there are also several spontaneous protests in western Caracas tonight. I live near Miraflores but I'm not there tonight and I'm reading about clashes with the national guard in a couple of areas near home. That's in the middle of easter in Venezuela, a holiday during which protests usually die down. If this is any indicator, the huge protest on Wednesday next week is going to be a turning point.
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Apr 12, 2017 05:19
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poo poo man, is this how it begins? Is poo poo about to go down? Because I'm getting a different feeling about this round of protests (safely here in Madrid) than any that came before, and I don't think Maduro is gonna react well to all of this. My mom's dog just died and she's in a bad shape so I was considering going, but it might not even be able to.
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Apr 12, 2017 07:41
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Hugoon Chavez posted:poo poo man, is this how it begins? Is poo poo about to go down? Because I'm getting a different feeling about this round of protests (safely here in Madrid) than any that came before, and I don't think Maduro is gonna react well to all of this. sounds like it. the judiciary stuff has shown that the regime doesn't give a gently caress about democracy or the people and the rulingyparty elite are living in bullshit rich tankie fantasy world while people kill each other over fruit trees. Chuck Boone posted:Holy smokes! He almost got lynched! it wouldnt surprise me if he trys to call in the army soon.
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Apr 12, 2017 13:09
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Hugoon Chavez posted:poo poo man, is this how it begins? Is poo poo about to go down? Because I'm getting a different feeling about this round of protests (safely here in Madrid) than any that came before, and I don't think Maduro is gonna react well to all of this. Like Camus said, “There is so much stubborn hope in the human heart". I'm feeling it right now. Yesterday's near-miss for Maduro is another chunk off the facade that the Bolivarian revolution has any business running the country. The event is also evidence that all that bravado and theatrics isn't fooling people anymore. I hope Maduro is in a place right now where he's thinking twice about showing his face in public. There's still lots of time for the opposition to completely ruin this, so we have to be ready for the possibility. It's easy to see the regime announcing the date for regional (or even presidential) elections as a way to cool things off. Or, worse yet, striking some kind of deal with the opposition to really sit down now at the dialogue table and really try to talk things out. The regime could release a couple of political prisoners, and we'd have Capriles telling protesters to go home like he did at the end of October last year. This is distinct possibility. It might destroy the opposition once and for all... but now I'm getting too far off into conjecture. There are more protests planned for tomorrow, and the PSUV is holding its own demonstration on Saturday. I think there will also be a big protest on Friday, and Labradoodle mentioned one on Wednesday -- I'm losing track of them myself, but that's a good sign. Like Labradoodle said, there were spontaneous outbursts of protests in Caracas and other cities all through the night. In Caracas, there were protests in Petare and La Vega, which are arguably the poorest areas of the city. Petare last night: https://twitter.com/Tony_Penta/status/851968401593569282 https://twitter.com/DisipR01/status/852118692175507456 And there was looting and unrest in La Vega: https://twitter.com/Imag3n/status/852149423568191488 https://twitter.com/enpaiszeta/status/851988535066468352 https://twitter.com/AndresGirott/status/851992516639551488 Also, a colectivo armado [civilian pro-regime armed group] attacked opposition demonstrators in Barquisimeto, Lara state last night. A protester named Miguel Angel Colmenares died after being shot 11 times. The death toll from the last two weeks of protests now sits at 4.
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Apr 12, 2017 15:20
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Hugoon Chavez posted:poo poo man, is this how it begins? Is poo poo about to go down? Because I'm getting a different feeling about this round of protests (safely here in Madrid) than any that came before, and I don't think Maduro is gonna react well to all of this. Ceausescu, Nguma, Doe, Qaddafi, etc. ended up either shot by their own military/security forces flipping, or killed by opposing compatriots under arms once their security details bailed. Firstly, a lynching isn't necessarily the only way out of this mess (although I have very little faith in the OEA, UNASUR, MERCOSUR, or the UN), but there could hopefully still be a way out that minimizes bloodshed. Secondly, to get to a lynching/firing squad situation, you're going to need substantial elements of the current oligarchic establishment to figure that things are so bad for them personally that getting rid of Maduro and some other scapegoats is the best way out (and even then, it could be a palace coup). The people at the top are not going to rock the boat unless they have a very coherent follow-through. They're doing just fine right now, even if 99% of the country isn't, that's why they're at the top.
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Apr 12, 2017 20:58
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Yesterday afternoon, Aristobulo Isturiz (former VP, now Minister of Something or Other) was on TV doing damage control on the San Felix incident. Isturiz explained that the crowd that attacked Maduro on Tuesday had been overwhelmed with love for their dear leader. Isturiz said that people were in fact throwing things like tomatoes and baseballs at Maduro, but that the items contained messages for the president. Here's a video of Isturiz's explanation along with my translation: https://twitter.com/diegoscharifker/status/852245945962172423 (The caption for the video is pretty funny: "Not even the chair could support the magnitude of that lie. Aristobulo is shameless. Tomatoes, mangoes, don't make fun of the people's hunger gently caress!") quote:Isturiz: The hill was full of people, all over the hill. When these compatriots saw that the event was about to finish, they plunged forward and climbed over the fence [of the venue]. They were like an avalanche of ice, but with people going to Maduro. Look — at that moment, they were climbing over each other and everything. And they were giving Maduro things. I picked up a ball [stumbles out of chair] — excuse me — a Spalding baseball that they threw at the president, but it had a message on it: “Nicolas! Whatever”. I gave it to the president in the airplane. But, yeah, someone grabbed a mango and wrote, “President Maduro! Whatever, Nicolas”. A tomato. If the people are looking for any medium… Later in the day, Maduro said that the opposition had set up an "ambush" against him in San Felix, but that the townspeople had successfully "dismantled it". He thanked the people there for their "demonstration of love and support". Also yesterday, a pro-regime group burst into the Santa Teresa Basilica in Caracas mid-mass and started shouting slogans, interrupting the events. Scuffles broke out in the church, and the police had to come to forcibly remove the regime supporters from the premises. The Archbishop of Caracas, Cardinal Urosa, was punched and shoved by the pro-regime crowd which waited for mass to end outside of the church to harass people as they came out. Here's a video showing worshipers scrambling for the back doors as the regime supporters from in through the front entrance: https://twitter.com/Orion_fighter/status/852219638624788486 Fighting inside the church: https://twitter.com/aecarri/status/852245560375619584 Near the end of this video, the regime supporters start to chant, "Chavez vive! La lucha sigue!" [Chavez lives! The fight continues!]: https://twitter.com/VeneSysAlpha/status/852225380907986944 Opposition figure Maria Corina Machado was outside the church as people started leaving following the attack. She talked to an elderly woman who was inside when it all went down: https://twitter.com/malvapica/status/852261719174938626 quote:Woman: [The regime] doesn’t respect anything. [Unintelligible] has to be overthrown. We have to get right of these shits. Maduro is nothing but — please forgive my expression — a motherfucker. He’s a murderer. There was also another fatality in Barquisimeto on the 11 aside from Miguel Angel: a 14-year-old boy named Brayan Principal. Some media outlets are reporting that he was killed by a pro-regime armed group during a protest in his neighbourhood, while others are saying that a gang attacked his neighbourhood to steal some CLAP (subsidized food) bags that had just arrived for distribution. It's possible that the two stories could be true at the same time. Today is looking to be another busy day of protests, as the opposition has called for people to take to the streets in every electoral district in the country. Caracas awoke this morning with nearly 60% of its subway system shut down: 27 stations are closed. I'll be busy most of the day, but if the demonstrations in Caracas start to get ugly, this YouTube channel usually has live streams from the scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=channel?UCVFiIRuxJ2GmJLUkHmlmj4w Ghost of Mussolini posted:As depressing as it sounds, I don't see what is different this time from other times. Maduro had to cut his speech short and had to get chased out. Being a dictator and having the people hate you is neither new or necessarily bad. As long as Maduro/PSUV/Military elite can keep the essential functions of the state going, they're not specifically in a crisis situation in the same way that regular people are. A state, correctly managed (in the sense of protecting its elements of power, not actually running the country) is a lot more resilient than the average family. If the PSUV still controls the money flow, if the military brass is getting their cuts from the drug trade and the foot soldiers and their families are fed, then sadly Venezuela still has a lot of poo poo to get through. As encouraging as it may be, Maduro having to leave 15 minutes early and having a few eggs thrown at him doesn't change anything. The first is that the dictatorship appears monolithic (I think all dictatorships do). Dictatorships appear monolithic until it becomes obvious that they're not, because the army has decided to step in, or this or that faction has had enough with the leader, etc. There are divisions inside the PSUV that are not so obvious on its surface, and any event that humiliates or otherwise demonstrates that Maduro and the party are unpopular and that people would tear its leaders apart on the streets if they had the chance is a good thing because it could force people to make moves (either to defect with information, or make the decision to start working against the regime, etc.). In other words, what happened in San Felix is a good thing because it chips away at the (apparent) monolith that is the PSUV and its leadership. The event in itself may not have immediate consequences, but it could be one in a series of events through which we could eventually trace the collapse of the regime. The second is that San Felix shows that the culture of protest and collective displays of dissent is still alive in Venezuela. The protests that we've seen over the last week and a half show this as well. This is a good thing, because there are places in the world where that culture does not exist either because the regime is so entrenched and people are so afraid (North Korea), or because people are apathetic to politics and just can't be bothered to go out and protest (Canada and many other western liberal democracies). The Washington Post changed its motto soon after the Trump inauguration to "Democracy dies in darkness" to call attention to the importance of a free and independent press. I'd add that democracy also dies in silence when people, either from fear or apathy, do not protest collectively and publicly whenever their governments do wrong. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Apr 13, 2017 |
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Apr 13, 2017 13:36
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They are throwing baseballs at Maduro's head because they have some much love for him they don't know how to express it. The middle school crush theory of domestic approval.
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Apr 13, 2017 15:02
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Uhhh. I might be wrong but I'm inclined to suspect that literally punching the Archbishop of Caracas while invading his basilica is not such a good idea w.r.t. keeping one of the most powerful and influential organizations in South America and the world on your side.
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Apr 13, 2017 15:03
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There's been another protest fatality: a man named Gruseny Antonio Canelon. He died overnight from injuries he sustained during the repression in Barquisimeto on April 11. 12 people received gunshot injuries that day in the city. I dont know posted:They are throwing baseballs at Maduro's head because they have some much love for him they don't know how to express it. The middle school crush theory of domestic approval. Quorum posted:Uhhh. I might be wrong but I'm inclined to suspect that literally punching the Archbishop of Caracas while invading his basilica is not such a good idea w.r.t. keeping one of the most powerful and influential organizations in South America and the world on your side.
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Apr 13, 2017 15:25
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Chuck Boone posted:Yesterday afternoon, Aristobulo Isturiz (former VP, now Minister of Something or Other) was on TV doing damage control on the San Felix incident. Isturiz explained that the crowd that attacked Maduro on Tuesday had been overwhelmed with love for their dear leader. Isturiz said that people were in fact throwing things like tomatoes and baseballs at Maduro, but that the items contained messages for the president. 
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Apr 13, 2017 17:33
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Chuck Boone posted:Yesterday afternoon, Aristobulo Isturiz (former VP, now Minister of Something or Other) was on TV doing damage control on the San Felix incident. Isturiz explained that the crowd that attacked Maduro on Tuesday had been overwhelmed with love for their dear leader. Isturiz said that people were in fact throwing things like tomatoes and baseballs at Maduro, but that the items contained messages for the president. jesus, thats like trump level lovely spin right there.
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Apr 13, 2017 18:22
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How likely (or possible) is it that the PSUV try scapegoating Maduro to stay in power? Would it even work?
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Apr 13, 2017 19:52
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Achernar posted:How likely (or possible) is it that the PSUV try scapegoating Maduro to stay in power? Would it even work? I can see the PSUV ditching Maduro if at some point he becomes too toxic or as a last-ditch effort, but as time goes by, it seems less and less likely. I mean, if Maduro were to 'resign' now, he'd be replaced by the VP, Tarek El Aissami, who's been accused of being part of a major drug trafficking operation. That would only cement Venezuela's reputation as a pariah state, as would circumventing the constitution again to try and get someone else to fill in Maduro's seat. For the time being, Maduro will do. Sure, people hate him, but they've hated him for years, so what difference does it make? As long as the PSUV can continue looting the state, I don't think they care too much who's the figurehead anymore.
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Apr 13, 2017 22:28
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In terms of regime change, one thing I want to point out is that Mugabe is still in power in Zimbabwe.
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Apr 14, 2017 01:33
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Munin posted:In terms of regime change, one thing I want to point out is that Mugabe is still in power in Zimbabwe. Yeah, but Mugabe is the beloved freedom fighter who gave deliverance from white oppression (if only to replace it with identical black oppression but who remembers that). Maduro is the schlub who comes after Mugabe dies. Chavez would have weathered the current crisis far better, I imagine.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:28
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Saladman posted:Yeah, but Mugabe is the beloved freedom fighter who gave deliverance from white oppression (if only to replace it with identical black oppression but who remembers that). Maduro is the schlub who comes after Mugabe dies. Chavez would have weathered the current crisis far better, I imagine. I think another big difference is the unwillingness to even acknowledge there are problems in Venezuela by the government. Their story about the country is too different from what people observe on the ground for the average person to delude themselves about the situation anymore.
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Apr 14, 2017 14:36
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China can't handle democracy it's different culture! Jesus Christ this is depressing
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Apr 14, 2017 15:29
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caberham posted:China can't handle democracy it's different culture! Is this the message in the baseballs getting thrown at maduro?
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Apr 14, 2017 15:46
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caberham posted:China can't handle democracy it's different culture! whats this in responce too? also they tried. it just fell apart qucikly because of strong men dickheads and taiwan is republic.
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Apr 14, 2017 16:29
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Saladman posted:Yeah, but Mugabe is the beloved freedom fighter who gave deliverance from white oppression (if only to replace it with identical black oppression but who remembers that). Maduro is the schlub who comes after Mugabe dies. Chavez would have weathered the current crisis far better, I imagine. Mugabe is as bad as the people he replaced but he has a few things going for him that Maduro doesn't. Zimbabwe has lots of great farmland that they can use to support themselves and Mugabe has made an art form out of taking farmland from the latest people to fall out of his good graces and hand them to the new people he's trying to please, rinse and repeat for decades. Also Zimbabwe is way more fractured than Venezuelans are, and are more willing to risk getting screwed over if it means they might get ahead screwing each other over.
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Apr 15, 2017 05:42
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This poster loves police brutality, but only when its against minorities!
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Los Teques saw more unrest last night, including more looting and an attack against the Miranda State Police headquarters there. The PSUV is blaming the governor of the state, Henrique Capriles, for failing to get the situation under control and even being complicit in the violence. Capriles is saying that colectivos armados are being allowed to loot and attack state police/protesters with the consent of the National Bolivarian Police and the National Guard in order to create chaos in the state. The situation is messy, but it's worth remembering that the PSUV has removed opposition political leaders from office for "failing to control unrest" in their cities (Daniel Ceballos and Enzo Scarano). In another bit of news, El Nuevo Herald published an article yesterday that gave me nightmares last night. The article cites anonymous sources familiar with the case as saying that Maduro has been "shaken" by the international/opposition pressure on his regime over the past few weeks, and that he is desperately seeking a "truce" with the opposition. The truce would look something like this:
I can't begin to describe how offensive the idea of a deal like this with the PSUV is. Part of me refuses to believe that the opposition would be short-sighted and stupid enough to seriously consider something like this, but I think that realistically the idea isn't that far-fetched. It's really hard for me to put into words how repulsive this whole thing would be. If negotiations for this truce are in fact ongoing, the opposition is not only playing with rights that belong to every Venezuelan regardless of what Maduro decides he wants to concede, but it's also negotiating with a group of people who have burned them at literally every over negotiation that the two sides have ever had. If this news is is true and if the opposition does reach a deal like this with the PSUV, it deserves to get trampled out of existence alongside the regime.
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Apr 15, 2017 15:00
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That's about the most underwhelming deal they could possibly get. I mean, they're not really "giving up" anything except for regional elections, which were already supposed to take place. The problem is, we don't exactly know what the opposition is gunning for right now. Is the leadership in agreement this is the time for la Salida 2 and they're not going to stop until Maduro's out and we get general elections? Are they looking to replace the Supreme Court and the Electoral Council as well as get regionals underway? The latter is probably the best we're going to get unless something changes radically soon and the military decides it's in their best interest to look for a transition of power with someone that'll be lenient about their past looting. Then again, that's a best case scenario and I'm not holding my breath about it.
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Apr 15, 2017 16:10
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And in the next election, all opposition parties anyway will be banned since they "didn't register on time" or "didn't register properly" or whatever bullshit excuse gets pulled. I can't imagine the opposition not agreeing to Maduro's terms and then calling it a victory for democracy, because they've been loving idiots at every chance given to them by the people.
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Apr 15, 2017 21:32
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For what it's worth, Freddy Guevara (National Assembly VP and rising opposition star) denied the rumours of the truce negotiation today, and said that it would be "absurd" for the opposition to give up protesting if Maduro agreed to allow regional elections to take place this year. He also suggested that the news could have "leaked" as part of a PSUV plot to demoralize and fracture the opposition:quote:One of the tools that the government wants to us to demobilize [the opposition] and is foster distrust among us, and it has started to plant the idea that (…) if they call for regional elections then all of us will just go home and forget about the fact that there has been a coup d’etat in Venezuela. That is absurd! Guevara also said that the opposition would only stop protesting if the following conditions were all met: 1) The National Assembly gets all of its powers back, 2) All political prisoners are released, 3) The regime allows foreign aid into the country, and 4) The regime holds regional and presidential elections. He was adamant that all of above's points, not just one or three, need to be met. In another bit of news, there were demonstrations in cities around the world today in solidarity with the struggle against the regime in Venezuela. I was at the Toronto event and took these pictures:       And here are some images from other places around the world. Somewhere in Scotland: https://twitter.com/RedOrgBaruta/status/853261974406344705 Barcelona, Spain: https://twitter.com/GeraliRM/status/853276334826631170 London, England: https://twitter.com/RedesAyuda/status/853256500302753792 And Miami, which probably houses the largest Venezuelan population outside of the country: https://twitter.com/AlbertoRT51/status/853295265813585921
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Apr 16, 2017 01:54
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Supposedly, Maduro is ordering the military into the streets on Wenesday to counter the planned protests. This seems like a pretty big escalation-- has the military been used directly against protesters before?
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Apr 18, 2017 08:51
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Sun Wu Kampf posted:Supposedly, Maduro is ordering the military into the streets on Wenesday to counter the planned protests. This seems like a pretty big escalation-- has the military been used directly against protesters before? In 1989, the government at the time attempted to introduce an economic reform package (what we would call an austerity package today) that included things like cuts to social spending, privatization of state assets and an increase in gasoline prices. The announcement resulted in widespread looting and general unrest in Caracas. The government reacted by deploying the military to the city, resulting in anywhere between 300-2,000 civilian deaths. This event became known as El Caracazo, and was arguably one of the most pivotal events in modern Venezuelan history since it played a large role in motivating Hugo Chavez to take a stab at politics. In 2002, during the April 11-13 coup d'etat attempt, Chavez ordered the military to deploy to Caracas to suppress the unrest there. This attempt was not actually carried out, given the fact that 1) some of the military was involved in the coup against Chavez and refused the order, and 2) even the officers who were on Chavez's side refused to participate in El Caracazo 2.0. So, while Chavez gave the order to the army to suppress the protests, the order was not actually carried out. We'll have to wait until tomorrow. If there are National Bolivarian Armed Forces soldiers out on the streets, it'll be another painful step down the stairwell into the dark cellar that is authoritarianism, and it'll increase the likelihood that tomorrow's demonstrations will end in bloodshed. To go along with this, Maduro put on a show of force yesterday to honor the National Bolivarian Militia. The event took place in Caracas. Minister of Defense (and head of the army) Vladimir Padrino Lopez gave a verbose speech in which he stressed the military's "unconditional loyalty to the president". Padrino Lopez also said that violent repression of protests "cannot be called repression" because it's done in the name of "restoring public order". In other words, getting brutalized by thugs in uniform is O.K. as long as they're doing it to maintain the status quo. During the same event--which was 100% a show of force and intimidation with tomorrow's demonstrations in mind--Maduro said that he had ordered the expansion of the Militia to 500,000 service members, and that he had approved the money to ensure that every one of them got a rifle. The announcement has already been condemned by the UNHCHR and regional governments as a gigantic step in the wrong direction, since disseminating weapons to the citizenry during times of unrest and political tension doesn't tend to end well. Here are some pictures from that event. Maduro driving through a crowd of Militia service members: https://twitter.com/DolarToday/status/854087007664001025 A quick video showing more of the crowd: https://twitter.com/VTVcanal8/status/854004330688651264 Resting: https://twitter.com/hcapriles/status/854086888726171648 Many of the service members appeared to be old and/or women and/or not in the best of health. I'm not sure why this demographic is so prominent in the service: https://twitter.com/TroyanoPay/status/854084860520140800 Maduro also urged the militia, and his supporters in general, to take up arms if he's ever removed from power. He's said this in the past as well. Here's what he said yesterday: quote:If you see one day, or if you wake up one day and see news that the ultra-right wing’s betrayal has resulted in some kind of coup d’etat, come out as you did on [April] 13 [2002] to take total control of the Republic. Insurrection from all of the popular and military forces of the homeland! Don’t doubt it even for one second. My father's been saying this for years (and I may have brought this up in the thread before; if so, I apologize): "This is going to end in civil war. The civil war might last a day, or a week, or a year, but it's going to end in civil war". Here's a video of some militia dancing and clapping along to a military parade song that was remixed with some lyrics praising Hugo Chavez to lighten the mood a bit: https://twitter.com/ABenavidesT/status/853936307973873665
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Apr 18, 2017 15:09
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Thanks for the continuing updates Chuck.
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Apr 18, 2017 17:36
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Chuck Boone posted:My father's been saying this for years (and I may have brought this up in the thread before; if so, I apologize): "This is going to end in civil war. The civil war might last a day, or a week, or a year, but it's going to end in civil war". 1) The government seems to be in firm control of the military 2) The military have bought in and control several key state institutions 3) The government has created parallel militarized forces, and has increasingly militarised the police/gendarmerie, preventing one single center of armed power 4) There is no noteworthy opposition force that is both organized and armed 5) The region is stable and there are no overriding conflicts, ethnic or otherwise, ensuring intervention from an outside party Sadly there seems to be plenty of room for iron-fist repression, but I don't see a civil war on the cards
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Apr 18, 2017 22:22
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El Nacional published a really good article today in which it alleges that public sector workers are under an unprecedented amount of pressure to take part in tomorrow's pro-regime rally. Here is a rundown of the article I wrote for something else:quote:The allegation comes from Froilan Barrios, the head of an organization called the Frente Autonomo de Defensa del Empleo, el Salario y el Sindicato [Autonomous Front for the Defense of Employment, Salaries and Unions]. Ghost of Mussolini posted:Do you think that there is going to be an actual civil war? Is this something that people seriously believe, or is it more of just being overwhelmed by an extremely depressing situation? I think that what we are likely to see is an intensified version of the unrest of 2014, which was characterized by opposition and regime supporters killing each other around barricades. Approximately 40 people died in a period of about three months that year. Some of them were killed by official state security forces (National Guard, National Bolivarian Police); others were killed by pro-regime civilian armed groups (the infamous colectivos armados); others were killed by traps opposition protesters set at barricades. I don't know what the academic term for this kind of conflict is, but what I'm describing is a situation in which two sides of a political divide act violently towards one another, sometimes resulting in death. When I say that we could see an intensified version of this I mean that, given your points 1-3, the regime can likely rely on military/paramilitary forces to attack opposition supporters if the order is given, and it's plausible that at least some opposition supporters will react with force. We saw this on April 11 2002 at the Puente Llaguno in Caracas, where 19 people died in gun battles between government and opposition supporters. While a full-on civil war might be very unlikely, I can easily see small-scale but widespread skirmishes between opposition and regime supporters resulting in deaths lasting weeks or months. GlyphGryph posted:Thanks for the continuing updates Chuck.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:23
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