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I have a potentially uninformed question. People always say that reunification would be bad, tens of thousands of uneducated North Koreans streaming into South Korea would wreck their economy for decades, etc. So, hasn't anybody planned for that? Does South Korea have an actual plan for what to do with North Korea after a war? Couldn't they just not immediately reunify? Something like, take over NK and run it for a bit like the Allies did to Germany, bring it up to a reasonable standard and then reunify when it won't be a disaster?
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Apr 14, 2017 02:43
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thats not what happened with germany but the claim in your first paragraph is premised on the only way the peninsula reunifies is through a war
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Apr 14, 2017 02:48
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Bringing North Korea up to a reasonable standard would take decades and cost a hojillion It might be one of the less worst outcomes, but still nothing reasonable people really want to touch if we can instead let the Kims keep their lovely little autocracy.
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Apr 14, 2017 02:49
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Bringing North Korea up to a reasonable standard would take decades and cost a hojillion yeah boy howdy i'm glad we're all in agreement that the reasonable thing to do is bury any sense of humanitarian responsibility and actively maintain a lovely little autocracy to save a hojillion dollars 
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Apr 14, 2017 02:52
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Jazerus posted:yeah boy howdy i'm glad we're all in agreement that the reasonable thing to do is bury any sense of humanitarian responsibility and actively maintain a lovely little autocracy to save a hojillion dollars Fixed, for you, my man.
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Apr 14, 2017 03:04
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Of course there's a plan, there's probably dozens of them for a whole range of possibilities, and provisions in place for some of the more likely ones. Even setting up money and stuff has been vaguely attempted although considering how much would be involved and just sitting there maybe not ever being needed, you can see how it hasn't gone far. Jazerus posted:yeah boy howdy i'm glad we're all in agreement that the reasonable thing to do is bury any sense of humanitarian responsibility and actively maintain a lovely little autocracy to save a hojillion dollars When it's that or potentially having hundreds of thousands/ millions of your people killed, it's not really so unreasonable. People in North Korea are living, even if it's not a life any of us would choose.
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Apr 14, 2017 03:04
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Guy Goodbody posted:I have a potentially uninformed question. People always say that reunification would be bad, tens of thousands of uneducated North Koreans streaming into South Korea would wreck their economy for decades, etc. Taking over NK and running it as a separate country would still wreck the South Korean economy for decades. Theres simply no wway around it - whoever ends up in control of North Korea has to bear the cost of providing for North Koreans' necessities and building a modern state there while also spending huge amounts on infrastructure and incredible amounts on skills and jobs programs for the entire population. Despite the huge amount of money spent on German reunification, former East Germany still has noticeable economic problems compared to West Germany, and the gap between the two Germanies was far smaller than the gap between the two Koreas. Sure, one can argue that that's a heartless argument, but South Korea doesn't even take care of its own poor, with low social spending and weak welfare programs. Main Paineframe fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Apr 14, 2017 |
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Apr 14, 2017 03:34
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So besides the satellite imagery of Punggye-ri, which has given false alarms before, I'm not sure why exactly we should expect the DPRK to conduct a nuclear test this weekend. The evidence seems to be the sat imagery, and that it's Kim Il-sung's birthday, but North Korea has not tested nuclear weapons around his birthday in the past. I'm also reading the Rodong Sinmun and ... nothing. And the last meeting of the Workers Party conference a few days ago made no mention of any upcoming nuclear displays. The focus has been on the economy and the big construction project in Pyongyang, which the DPRK is saying is the equivalent of 100 nuclear bombs. My suspicion is that they escalated with the ballistic missile launches in recent weeks and are now pivoting. Why? I have my suspicions. I may be wrong!
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Apr 14, 2017 04:08
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Guy Goodbody posted:I have a potentially uninformed question. People always say that reunification would be bad, tens of thousands of uneducated North Koreans streaming into South Korea would wreck their economy for decades, etc. South Korea has an entire Ministry of Unification that works towards planning this sort of stuff. However the only way we're going to see if their plans work is if their plans actually get put into practice. There's no way to avoid it being a massive drain on the economy of course. Running it like the Allies ran Germany is going to mean spending all the same money anyway, you don't save anything versus "reunification" sooner.
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Apr 14, 2017 04:55
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maskenfreiheit posted:Well that's one way to make their feelings about the birth of Seth Rogan felt: April 15th is Kim Il-Sung's birthday as well.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:04
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oldman posted:April 15th is Kim Il-Sung's birthday as well. yes this is the source of the joke
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Apr 14, 2017 06:25
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Jazerus posted:yeah boy howdy i'm glad we're all in agreement that the reasonable thing to do is bury any sense of humanitarian responsibility and actively maintain a lovely little autocracy to save a hojillion dollars An American invasion and regime change? China would love that.
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Apr 14, 2017 13:15
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so has stuff "calmed down" or is it still up in the air?
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Apr 14, 2017 13:17
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Wikkheiser posted:So besides the satellite imagery of Punggye-ri, which has given false alarms before, I'm not sure why exactly we should expect the DPRK to conduct a nuclear test this weekend. The evidence seems to be the sat imagery, and that it's Kim Il-sung's birthday, but North Korea has not tested nuclear weapons around his birthday in the past. Obviously it's not 100% definite - the level of hype is this time around is extra influenced by the prevailing situation in the region / Trump etc.
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Apr 14, 2017 13:28
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Halloween Jack posted:What's your proposal for reunification? Uh yeah, China would like that. Eliminates the ongoing refugee potential, keeps some dictator prince down the line from being a threat, and also ties up a substantial chunk of the American and South Korean militaries long term, as well as the South Korea economy. And eventually leads to a drawdown in troops in Korea overall both local and American. All of these things are beneficial to China for at least the medium term. The only other alternative would be China taking over, and then they have to spend the money instead, which they don't want, and they're effectively coming down to the DMZ to have American troops at the border anyway. Always remember of course, that everyone's preferred thing to do at the moment is to just kick the can down the road another decade and make it someone else's problem.
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Apr 14, 2017 14:47
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Wikkheiser posted:So besides the satellite imagery of Punggye-ri, which has given false alarms before, I'm not sure why exactly we should expect the DPRK to conduct a nuclear test this weekend. The evidence seems to be the sat imagery, and that it's Kim Il-sung's birthday, but North Korea has not tested nuclear weapons around his birthday in the past. Yeah I'm just gonna say you're wrong on this It's not like the Rodong Sinmun is an independent journalistic organization, so reading the tea leaves through them is a useless exercise. It's better to look at KCNA and read the leave through there Jazerus posted:yeah boy howdy i'm glad we're all in agreement that the reasonable thing to do is bury any sense of humanitarian responsibility and actively maintain a lovely little autocracy to save a hojillion dollars it's really easy to say this when the options range from "lovely" to "It'd be easier and cheaper to terraform Mars" Seth Pecksniff fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Apr 14, 2017 |
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Apr 14, 2017 14:49
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Just nationalize the chaebols, imprison their CEOs, and use their money to develop the North! Not rocket science. 
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Apr 14, 2017 15:37
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If a nuclear test doesn't happen, will Trump take this as evidence that his posturing and threats were successful and keep doing them?
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Apr 14, 2017 15:45
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chitoryu12 posted:If a nuclear test doesn't happen, will Trump take this as evidence that his posturing and threats were successful and keep doing them? He is not a clever or smart man, so yes also: https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/852888636706226178 here we go again
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Apr 14, 2017 15:55
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Ron Darling posted:He is not a clever or smart man, so yes WATCH KIM OPEN A loving ROAD
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Apr 14, 2017 16:04
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fishmech posted:Uh yeah, China would like that. Eliminates the ongoing refugee potential, keeps some dictator prince down the line from being a threat, and also ties up a substantial chunk of the American and South Korean militaries long term, as well as the South Korea economy. And eventually leads to a drawdown in troops in Korea overall both local and American. All of these things are beneficial to China for at least the medium term. China has said, as recently as yesterday, that the possibility of US troops on the Chinese border is completely unacceptable.
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Apr 14, 2017 16:05
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Ron Darling posted:He is not a clever or smart man, so yes this is going to be a new swimming pool or something
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Apr 14, 2017 16:13
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iSimian posted:WATCH KIM OPEN A loving ROAD I'd like to think they're actually taking them to the blast site to see it, but unfortunately it's probably some renovation at Kumsusan Palace of the Sun or some poo poo, or maybe watching Kim give veneration to his grandfather (which is probably likely tbh)
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Apr 14, 2017 16:14
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Lum_ posted:China has said, as recently as yesterday, that the possibility of US troops on the Chinese border is completely unacceptable. Yeah anyone who thinks China would be remotely cool with a US-occupied North Korea doesn't know anything about China.
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Apr 14, 2017 17:22
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Ewan posted:Expert trolls So wait, they are going to open a new road or building for the celebration instead of a missile test? And the USA just spend how many millions to divert the fleet to the area? Amazing.
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Apr 14, 2017 18:08
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Lum_ posted:China has said, as recently as yesterday, that the possibility of US troops on the Chinese border is completely unacceptable. What's the point you think you're making? There's literally nothing requiring the Americans to be on the border in the first place. Most of the troops involved in occupying North Korea will be South Korean, and it would be easy to ensure they're all South Korean for any long-term positioning near the Chinese border.
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Apr 14, 2017 19:07
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fishmech posted:What's the point you think you're making? There's literally nothing requiring the Americans to be on the border in the first place. Most of the troops involved in occupying North Korea will be South Korean, and it would be easy to ensure they're all South Korean for any long-term positioning near the Chinese border. By and large Americans have no way of being on the border right now. If South Korea unifies, there's really very little to stop the US from saying "Hey we'd like to look across the Yalu let a contingent to the border" Things don't necessarily have to be required for them to happen.
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Apr 14, 2017 20:23
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Found these gems in the massive Reddit NK thread:quote:Holy gently caress, the tensions in North Korea better not delay Super Mario Odyssey. then directly below (same poster): quote:I'm serious. Anything that happens to Japan will impact the video games and anime industry for many years to come, and it will be a huge blow to the worldwide internet culture.
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Apr 14, 2017 20:49
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Ron Darling posted:By and large Americans have no way of being on the border right now. If South Korea unifies, there's really very little to stop the US from saying "Hey we'd like to look across the Yalu let a contingent to the border" The South Koreans will stop any serious threat involved there (or I guess at that point, we just call them Koreans period).
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Apr 14, 2017 20:56
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Ideally any occupying force in North Korea would be a vast majority Koreans themselves. Hell, since the Korean War never ended an argument could be made that technically it would be a UN operation and you could get an occupying force made up of people from countries that aren't the USA, Japan, China, or Russia in order to keep the whole thing as politically neutral as possible (after said countries do all the heavy lifting of course)
Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Apr 14, 2017 |
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Apr 14, 2017 20:59
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maskenfreiheit posted:Found these gems in the massive Reddit NK thread: The body pillow industry can't take it.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:01
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Jazerus posted:yeah boy howdy i'm glad we're all in agreement that the reasonable thing to do is bury any sense of humanitarian responsibility and actively maintain a lovely little autocracy to save a hojillion dollars Reunification is a non-starter without truly massive international investment, but there may be ways to pursue unfucking the place without either reunification or forcible regime change, both of which are bad options (obviously the latter is probably worse). But there almost certainly aren't any fast ways, and may not be any reliable ones.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:03
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Reunification is a non-starter without truly massive international investment, but there may be ways to pursue unfucking the place without either reunification or forcible regime change, both of which are bad options (obviously the latter is probably worse). You can't unfuck the place without reunification, the division of the peninsula doesn't make any sense outside of what was supposed to be temporary post-WWII occupation to handle the power vacuum from booting out the Japanese. The only premise it still has to continue today is the continued presence of regimes that hate each other on either side of the border created from more or less the state-of-battle at the time of armistice in the 50s. Everyone involved when the first division was made in 1945, and the readjustment after the war in the early 50s, was under the impression that one side would quickly take over the whole thing, because the divisions we do have there make practically 0 allowance for two viable countries. Every other similar national situation got resolved to a single country eventually.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:20
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sincx fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Apr 14, 2017 21:21
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Deng Xiaoping was a giant murderous rear end in a top hat though so I'd like to think that the best outcome is someone better than him.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:48
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I really hope people on the SK side are aware that there's a new wildcard factor here and it's Trump. Imagine if this gets hot and Seoul is just having a normal day until artillery starts pounding the northern half of the city.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:58
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sincx posted:The best outcome is a North Korean version of Deng Xiaoping emerges and accelerates market reforms while freezing the nuclear program. Basically this. There was some hope when Un was crowned that he'd be this, what with the Swiss education and all, but he only did a splash of the former, the opposite of the latter, and chemical murdered the Nicest Kim in an international airport. 
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Apr 14, 2017 21:59
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fishmech posted:You can't unfuck the place without reunification, the division of the peninsula doesn't make any sense outside of what was supposed to be temporary post-WWII occupation to handle the power vacuum from booting out the Japanese. The only premise it still has to continue today is the continued presence of regimes that hate each other on either side of the border created from more or less the state-of-battle at the time of armistice in the 50s. They are basically two separate countries, there isn't really a previous similar situation.
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Apr 14, 2017 22:30
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Uncle Jam posted:They are basically two separate countries, there isn't really a previous similar situation. East Germany and West Germany: definitely not two separate countries somehow. Yeah right. Literally even created in the same way, too.
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Apr 14, 2017 23:13
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Acid Haze posted:I really hope people on the SK side are aware that there's a new wildcard factor here and it's Trump. Imagine if this gets hot and Seoul is just having a normal day until artillery starts pounding the northern half of the city. I think NK would only hit US military objectives and not civilian targets.
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Apr 14, 2017 23:19
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