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  • Locked thread
Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?


BGM: Solitary Deep Sea Fish

Ironically, the witch had to prove that a human had committed the crime...

"...Still, this is getting pretty difficult. Until 3:00, Erika was in the lounge. And you have to pass through there to reach the second floor. In other words, she's practically like a manager for the guesthouse's second floor."
"...This may be trivial, but if it was possible for someone to go up to the second floor without Erika noticing, we should be able to prove that the crime was possible for anyone."
"It's probably possible for a human to climb up to the second story window if they really wanted to."



Of course, Beato had also thought of striking back that way. And Bernkastel must have thought this as well.

"Battler, Nanjo, Gohda, Kumasawa. We realize that the crime was impossible for all these people in the guesthouse. However, what about the people in the mansion?!"
"As I have already said, and as my master has even proclaimed with the red truth, I was in the lounge on the first floor of the guesthouse. And to reach the second floor, one must pass through the lounge. In other words, it was impossible to reach the second floor without me seeing it."
"And what if that wasn't impossible? For example, what if someone placed a ladder against the outer wall of the guesthouse and snuck in through the second story window?! There must be a way to reach the second floor without passing through the lounge! This way, it was possible to reach the crime scene without you seeing it...!"

Beato finally struck back. Before now, she had let Erika take total control and attack her with the red over and over. During that time, Beato's counterattacks with the blue truth had been few in number, even including this one...

"Of course, I knew you'd try saying that. I couldn't have my lookout in the lounge become meaningless. So first, I must prove that my lookout was perfect."
"...First off, because of how the guesthouse is constructed, it is impossible to reach the second floor without me seeing it from the lounge. There are no places under cover, and neither are there any physical or mental blind spots. My master, repeat it!"



"<Good>, my master! So, next is Lady Beatrice's theory that there might be a way to reach the second floor from the outside. This really is a problem. After all, there are trees that could probably be climbed, and someone could have used a ladder. We also can't be certain that crawling up the rain gutter would be impossible. But I can't let you do that."
"Hoh, you won't let me...? And how's that? Did you stay up all night circling the guesthouse?"
"No, you couldn't do that. You were in the lounge...! From the lounge, you can only see a small part of the outer perimeter through the window!"
"That's true. I couldn't prevent all methods of climbing up to the second floor from the outside. However, I was able to prevent all entry from the second floor."
"Prevent... entry...?!"
"...I had already foreseen this move. Frightening... and so persistent...!"
"Because of how the guesthouse is constructed, the only method of entry from the second floor is the windows. The locks? Not important at all. I only had to prove that none of the windows or shutters were opened even once."
"After I witnessed the location of the hidden gold, I returned to the guesthouse and immediately began severing all methods of entry to the second floor of the guesthouse that didn't pass through the lounge. Yes, it's exactly the same. No different from the rest...!"



"Well, I did have my swimsuit from when I drifted here."
"...You're insane... At a house where you were welcomed as a guest, you did something like that in the middle of the rain even though nothing had happened yet...?"
"For a normal human, it would certainly be an impossibly dubious action. However, she is the witch's piece."

In the middle of all that rain, Erika sealed all the windows from the outside... to create an alibi showing that no one could have snuck into the guesthouse from the outside. She climbed up the wall herself, and did that to all the windows on the first and second floor. No, to all things which could possibly have permitted entry. After hearing that she'd listened to the cousins' room all night long without sleeping a wink, even this new bizarre action didn't seem quite so impossible...

That had probably also... looked like a venomous spider. A disgusting spider crawling over the outside guesthouse wall during a storm...

"...You, just what do you... think of this Ushiromiya family...? Is this how you repay us for welcoming you as a guest...?!"
"To a detective, the Ushiromiya family is nothing more or less than the stage upon which the crime occurs. Before the outbreak of the crime, it was important for me to memorize the names of the characters, memorize the layout of the land, and prepare for the upcoming crime by devoting my time towards collecting and creating all possible alibis."
"From my perspective, detectives who don't prepare anything before the outbreak of the crime are pretty third-rate. After all, we all know that someone will die wherever we spend the night."
"...Furthermore, when the crime was discovered, Erika confirmed that none of those seals had been broken. That's why Erika wasn't the first one to reach the cousins' room when the corpses were discovered."
"Even without inspecting the corpses, she could be certain of several things thanks to the red truth. It was more important to check the seals and construct alibis."
"My master is perfect. All I did was prove everything perfectly by following my master's orders...!"
"Well done, Erika. My double, my piece...! What do you think, Lambda? Doesn't this prove that Erika's lookout in the lounge contains absolute reliability as far as constructing alibis...?"





BGM: Smile-less Soiree

"...Yeah, I acknowledge it. Erika, your seal is perfect. I'll acknowledge it in red. It was impossible to reach the second floor of the guesthouse without passing through the lounge, and impossible to reach it at all without Erika, who was in the lounge, knowing about it!"
"Thank you very much, Lady Lambdadelta...!"
"So, you know what's coming next, great Lady Beatrice! Therefore, the time of the crime is limited to the single hour between 24:00, when they were confirmed to be alive, and 1:00 AM, when our party in the lounge started!"
"Uu, gah... ah..."
"I've already said it, but at 24:00, I went down to the lounge, hit it off with Doctor Nanjo, and was engrossed by a discussion of the mystery genre in the archive until 1:00 AM."
"...It's a bit embarrassing, but I grew so engrossed with this discussion... that I wouldn't have noticed if anyone had passed through the corridor during that period. Quite a regretful mistake for a detective."

After doing all that maneuvering and setting up seals to guarantee a perfect alibi, she became too engrossed in a mystery discussion and left an opening...? Her relaxed smile was completely shameless, the total opposite of her words. It almost seems like it's the other way around. It's enough to make you think that this was an intentional trap... to make it clear to all that only Natsuhi didn't have an alibi between 24:00 and 1:00...



Her eyes clearly hinted that Natsuhi was the only one who fit this description...





It should have been a crime whose time and location were completely unknown during that long night. But because of the alibis Erika had constructed, it had been limited to the time period between 24:00 and 1:00. Erika left the cousins' room at 24:00. This is the last confirmation that George and the others were alive. And after the party in the lounge started at 1:00. it was impossible to reach the cousins' room by any method.

"...drat her, and from a mere human..."
"This is quite bad... The night has been sealed up into an hour, and at this rate, there won't be many suspect pieces left..."
"...drat it, Lady Bernkastel... Not bad at all..."
"Unlike Battler, I'm not an idiot. After this game's repeated five times, I have more than enough cards in my hand. *giggle* *giggle* *giggle* *giggle*!!"
"Then let us continue. Let's examine the alibis of the remaining suspects, the people in the mansion. After all, we only have to worry about the single hour between 24:00 and 1:00. That shouldn't be difficult at all."
"First, at 24:00. At this time, Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji are in the second floor corridor, and all of the others are in the first floor dining hall. This has already been shown by my master's red!"
"Yeah, that's right. At 24:00, Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji were in the corridor on the second floor of the mansion. The rest of them were in the dining hall on the first floor. And as you know, there was a mysterious knock, and a letter with the One Wing seal on it appeared. The discussion surrounding that continued on until 1:00. I will say it with the red truth. Of all the people in the dining hall, not one of them left the dining hall until 1:00 AM...!"





Since the time that the crime was possible had been limited to between 24:00 and 1:00... The adults in the family conference, who, as had been guaranteed, hadn't left the mansion between 24:00 to 1:00, all had proven alibis.

"...A, and how do you intend to prove that?! Erika's in the guesthouse! Did someone prove it by using one of your favorite seals on the dining hall door?! You have no convincing evidence or proof...!!"



This overbearing red truth hadn't only given alibis to the adults in the dining hall. It also gave alibis to Shannon and Kanon, who had come to serve tea, and even guaranteed that they never left the dining hall. In other words, the only ones who didn't have proven alibis... were three people: Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji...

No, there were only two left. If Krauss and Genji had their alibis proven, it proves that no one but Natsuhi could have been the culprit...!

"Let's do Genji next. He's a victim, but you can't deny the possibility that he committed the crime in the cousins' room and then was killed himself."
"And furthermore, while he was in the second floor corridor at 24:00, he then returned to the servant room to transfer the phone call for Natsuhi and was completely isolated."



"Which means that it was possible for Genji to commit the crime-"
"I'll say it in red. When Genji finished transferring the call, he immediately returned to the waiting room. That's just a cold, hard truth, without any evidence, proof, seals or alibis, got it?"
"Then, at 1:00 AM, there was another break in the family conference, and Rosa returned to the guesthouse. At that time... I'm truly thankful for your cooperation, Ushiromiya Eva-san. Please rise...!"



BG: Deep Blue Jeer

"She's the person who taught me how to make those seals. And she helped me to check the alibis of those people under suspicion...!"
"During the break at 1:00 AM, I went to Genji-san's waiting room and used the same seal as Erika-chan...! In other words, if this wasn't broken, it would mean that no one entered or left that room between 1:00 AM and the next morning...!!"



"Now, Kanon-san and Kumasawa-san. Please rise."

Kanon rose expressionlessly, and Kumasawa got to her feet timidly.

"In the morning, you two went to wake Genji-san because he had slept in, right? And at that time, you noticed that the door was sealed, broke the seal, and opened the door, correct?"
"...Y, yes. I thought it was some kind of prank."
"I didn't think deeply about it at the time."
"I'm not asking for your opinions. Just give us the facts. Did you break the seal and enter the room?"
""Y, yes...""



"During the short break at 1:00 AM, the first two to leave the dining hall were Rosa and Eva. Until Eva returned, everyone in the dining hall remained there. After seeing Rosa off, Eva went to the waiting room and sealed it. Of course, she did not enter the room at all at this time."
"This is all information gathered from the people involved. It isn't a red truth without a basis. It's a truth due to proper reasoning constructed from testimony. Not only testimony, but the limits of scientific investigations such as collecting fingerprints were used here."
"After all, Kinzo-san's study is a treasure vault with all kinds of chemicals! I obtained all sorts of results to create an ultimate truth, infinitely close to a red truth. This isn't a science mystery, so I'll spare you the details."

As Erika swaggered around the cathedral, she arrogantly touted her scientific knowledge. She had thorough knowledge of all the chemicals in Kinzo's study and had used them to conduct a scientific investigation, which had now been acknowledged and made into a red truth by Bernkastel. She didn't explain the details, but she had obtained results that were convincing even without the red truth.

Collecting fingerprints with aluminum powder. Component analysis of the mud under someone's shoe and various chemical reactions from the clinging rain water. Erika just walked into someone else's study several times and used several chemicals however she pleased, all without asking the family's permission. However, no one could fault her for this. The pieces couldn't hinder any action the detective might take for the investigation. That's the power of the detective's authority.

"...You act like you own the place... From now on, I'll tell everyone I meet. If someone claims to be a detective, never welcome them into your house as a guest."
"That's probably a good idea. Giving shelter to a detective is just about the worst omen of misfortune out there."
"...Because of this, it has been proven that it was only possible to reach Genji's waiting room and commit the crime between 24:00 and 1:00 AM. And furthermore, by Erika's investigation, it has been proven that it was impossible for Genji to reach the cousins' room."

It had already been made clear in red that, after transferring the phone call to Natsuhi, Genji had gone straight back to the waiting room. And because of Erika's scientific investigation, further red had been added, saying Genji never left the mansion after 24:00... Because of this, it's been made clear that Genji couldn't have reached the guesthouse, much less the cousins' room...







BGM: Patchwork Chimera

"...I... impossible... ahhh."

Natsuhi's mouth flapped open and shut like a suffocating goldfish. And that's an accurate analogy. Natsuhi's mind was blank and spinning out of control, and she felt as though she really would suffocate.



"F, fool!! Do I look like the kind of woman who would falsely accuse her husband?!!"
"...Beato. Natsuhi's denied it. I'll give you the same chance."
"...You understand, right? Or wait, don't tell me... You aren't going to take advantage of the fact that Krauss is missing to try and pull a Devil's Proof on me, are you...?"



"...Gah, ghh..."

Beato realized that they were rapidly approaching the end of this battle. Normally, these alibis of Erika's would still have many places that Beato could argue against using the blue truth. However, all of those alibis had been accepted by Bernkastel and Lambdadelta as red truth, and Beato no longer had any room to argue...

"...It's like... those witches are distorting things so that they match with an outline Erika's drawn up..."
"That's right. If the Game Master, Lady Lambdadelta, accepts a truth, its authenticity will not be questioned. The world that comes after will be formed based on the final remaining truth... This happens no matter how far this final truth is from the real truth."
"There's no way Uncle Krauss is the culprit. He's being held prisoner somewhere."
"...W, wait, we can't deny the possibility that Aunt Natsuhi was skillfully tricked into believing that during the phone call..."
"Do you suspect Natsuhi and Krauss, Battler-kun?"
"Well..."
"Erika's truth has been constructed in a cowardly fashion, but it is a proper truth. Though the witches did conspire with her, it has still been acknowledged as a red truth. In other words, it cannot be a fake truth built only on lies. This means that even Erika's truth makes sense. The truth about Natsuhi and Krauss being the culprits is also very possible. Though it is a mixture of truth and lies, it 'makes sense'."



"...No. I'll... trust Aunt Natsuhi... and Uncle Krauss. I realize that they're in some money trouble."
"But even so, I don't want to believe that they're the culprits. No, I can't believe it...!"
"On this game board, where the red is steadily cornering Natsuhi, how do you intend to let her escape?"
"I, I don't know... However, I seriously don't want to give up...! Aunt Natsuhi was just caught in a cowardly trap. Erika's reasoning has fallen for that trap completely...! So whether it's intentional or she's being manipulated, Erika is aiding the true culprit."
"...Erika has accused Aunt Natsuhi of being the culprit, but even if everyone here believes that, in fact, for that very reason, I want to be the one person who trusts Aunt Natsuhi...!"

If everyone believes it's her, will that become the truth? If everyone accepts a lie, will that become the truth? Must an honest person be dragged up to the guillotine, all alone and taunted by the liars?

"I... don't like it. If no one will believe Aunt Natsuhi, then I will...!! The real truth isn't something that's determined when everyone accepts it! It's something you find after thoroughly investigating both possibilities...! So this trial is a downright lie! This trial exists for no reason other than to set Aunt Natsuhi up as the culprit!!"
"...Beato is doing all she can to plead Natsuhi's case, right?"
"Wrong. Beato is trying to refute Erika's argument. She's just defending! You can't fight in this trial by simply resisting all of your opponent's claims. This is why Beato always cornered me in the past...!"
"She isn't going to beat Erika by finding flaws in her reasoning! She has to find a different truth and show Lambdadelta, the commander of this game... that her truth is more correct than Erika's...!!"
"Can anyone create a truth where Natsuhi isn't the culprit without violating the red truths that Lady Bernkastel has shown...?"
"...I, I don't know... But, as long as I don't believe that Aunt Natsuhi is the culprit, there's got to be a different truth!"
"It's even alright if the culprit for the crime was a witch. That's better than having Natsuhi be framed by an incorrect truth...!!"
"...So, no matter how much red truth you are shown, you won't believe that Natsuhi is the culprit, correct?"
"Yeah...! For everything, there should always be some people who believe and some who don't...! No matter how much evidence is stacked up against her, someone has to believe that she's innocent!"
"There must be several truths in the world that cannot be proven with evidence. I don't ever want to accept that something's true just because everyone says it is!!"



Is there some reason that you have to believe it?! Until you see the back of the moon with your own eyes, you can't deny either the possibility that nothing is there or the possibility of a thriving culture of space bunnies...! You should never assume something is the truth until you actually check it. This court is a malicious thing, trying to force a single interpretation on a truth that cannot be checked.

I believed there was a society on the back side of the moon!! But that was in elementary school, and I was made fun of and laughed at. So I thought it was embarrassing to think that a society lived on the moon... and I threw away that 'belief'. I'd been told by a book my mom read me that rabbits lived on the back side of the moon, so I'd believed that for a long, long time. But when everyone said that was wrong, I abandoned that truth without even trying to check it! Even without evidence, I abandoned the truth I believed in...!

And now, everyone is starting to believe that Aunt Natsuhi is the culprit. Even though no decisive evidence has been shown...! Even without evidence, Erika's words sound reasonable, so they're probably the truth...? And that's why you're throwing away your 'belief' that Aunt Natsuhi is innocent despite a lack of proof?!



"...Understood. Then I will give you just a single red truth. This is the single bit of power I will give you, now that you hold the will to fight in the truest sense."
"Power...?"
"By the name of the Finite Witch Virgilia. No, as the former witch Beatrice, I will grant you this red truth."

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tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica
Shame on you, anyone who even thought she might have been. Nappi would never kill anyone.

MagusDraco
Nov 11, 2011

even speedwagon was trolled
Guess it was Krauss then.

RedMagus
Nov 16, 2005

Male....Female...what does it matter? Power is beautiful, and I've got the power!
Grimey Drawer
I'm getting Phoenix Wright vibes from this scene. Sadly, Erika is no where near as awesome as Edgeworth.

lotus circle
Dec 25, 2012

Jushure Iburu
So don't worry

RedMagus posted:

I'm getting Phoenix Wright vibes from this scene. Sadly, Erika is no where near as awesome as Edgeworth.
Erika is more like Franziska von Karma on steroids.

bman in 2288
Apr 21, 2010

lotus circle posted:

Erika is more like Franziska von Karma on steroids.

And also less likeable. Which is kind of hard for someone like her.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
There still feels like there's a gaping hole here. At 1:00, Rosa is confirmed to have left the family meeting, and to have been there at all times prior to that. Erika insists that the murders happened prior to 1:00. Yet Rosa's body was found with the rest in the guestroom. So there has to be some flaw there, some path that allows for that to happen.

As a side thought, is there anything that specifically stops the detective from being the culprit if they're not the viewpoint character?

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

tiistai posted:

Shame on you, anyone who even thought she might have been. Nappi would never kill anyone.

Nappi?

Memorizing all the details that are being tossed around is pretty difficult, but it's interesting to find the red truth that has a little wiggle room to it.



This for example is not as solid a case against someone using a ladder from the outside of the mansion, only the inside.

Motive is also an issue too. I don't think that Eva would kill her own son, while leaving Battler alive because gently caress it why not. Rosa? Perhaps she might be willing to kill Maria because she longs for a world where having Maria isn't an issue, but not finishing off Battler still doesn't make sense.

That's why the culprit has to be someone who is following Beatrice's goal of saving Battler for last. Genji, Shannon, Kanon, and Kumasawa fit for people who are devoted to the legacy of Beatrice aka "gently caress up the Ushiromiyas". Murdering Hideyoshi is possible for either of those four people motive wise if they needed to pin the crime on Natsuhi.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


Cyouni posted:

There still feels like there's a gaping hole here. At 1:00, Rosa is confirmed to have left the family meeting, and to have been there at all times prior to that. Erika insists that the murders happened prior to 1:00. Yet Rosa's body was found with the rest in the guestroom. So there has to be some flaw there, some path that allows for that to happen.

As a side thought, is there anything that specifically stops the detective from being the culprit if they're not the viewpoint character?

Knox's 7th explicitly denies the possibility. Since Erika being the detective is said in Red, she cannot be the culprit. If you were thinking Erika murdered the people and is framing Natsuhi, I guess it's Game Over for you.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

Yeah, it's a cute nickname.


Cyouni posted:

So there has to be some flaw there, some path that allows for that to happen.

I lied, it's because Natsuhi really is the culprit here. Did you notice that Virgilia didn't specify that Natsuhi isn't the culprit for THIS crime in particular? That's right, it's just another meaningless, misleading red truth.

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!

tiistai posted:

Shame on you, anyone who even thought she might have been. Nappi would never kill anyone.

Tch.

ProfessorProf posted:

"...So you have finally... shown yourself. I still can't believe... that something like you really exists...But that isn't a problem. Both I, bearing the title of representative to the Ushiromiya family, and you, the one who claims to succeed the head of the Ushiromiya family, are here right now. At this point, whether you are a witch or not is a trivial problem!"



The gold butterflies slowly formed a human shape, which walked into the dim light...

Natsuhi readied the rifle, ...and glared. The witch raised her golden staff overhead, ...and laughed.

Natsuhi's finger, slowly squeezed the trigger...

Of course, I never considered her seriously as the culprit on this particular occasion.

I think my earlier theory doesn't contradict anything that's in red. (At least) one of the cousins faked their death. After the bodies were discovered, that person (or people) cleaned up. Later, once there are fewer seals on every goddamned thing, that person is killed by their confederate.

Of course, what Battler's saying is true, isn't it? It's not enough to just say "some person", we really need to be advancing specific theories. So let's do that.

What I've been trying to figure out from this particular entry is: why the gently caress is Eva involved in this? She's not going to just randomly tape up a door because some arrogant idiot in a weird dress asked her to. It's one thing to be allowed into various crime scenes by the authority of the detective, but inducing someone to actually help you investigate? That's another matter. This is obviously an attempt to frame Natsuhi, but to what end? Who wants that, and why? RIght now, there are two parties that specifically are out for Natsuhi's blood, and we've been introduced to both of them: one, the mysterious person from nineteen years ago. That person has a perfectly understandable desire for revenge. Two, the handful of adults that believe that Kinzo is dead need money. If they can get Natsuhi to admit that Kinzo is dead, they can inherit right now and solve their problems. They may be able to achieve this by isolating Natsuhi and pressuring her; once she's broken, they can demand the truth. For the moment, I'll proceed on the assumption that the child is Kanon. Let me posit the following:

Eva created a plan to discredit Natsuhi and regain the headship for her family. She enlisted Shannon and Kanon to help. Kanon has motivation of his own and Shannon seems to be willing to help him out, in general. Shannon also might be motivated by currying favor with Eva.
Kanon could have revealed Kinzo's death himself, but that wouldn't satisfy his need for revenge, so he went along with Eva's plan but planned to commit more murders than she intended.
Eva pressured George into assisting with the plan. He's in the cousin room, so he can murder everyone else and pretend to be dead.
Not every corpse has been guaranteed to have been a corpse at the time of discovery, nor every corpse to have been fully inspected by anyone at that time.
George killed the others, pretended to be dead, then helped with the cleanup. He also pretends to be the voice on the phone, using a disguised voice, whenever Kanon isn't available to do it. He is later murdered by Kanon, which satisfies the condition that all of the apparent victims are dead.
Hideyoshi also faked his death after chaining the door. The "nobody would mistake a corpse on examination" rule doesn't apply because Eva ensured she and Nanjo were the ones who "checked" the corpse, and then they moved it out of the room. Eva secured Nanjo's cooperation through bribery. Later, Hideyoshi is genuinely killed by Kanon too.
Erika is incompetent.

The only thing that feels iffy is George's participation, but remember that we were shown back in episode four that he would, if pressed, make the choice to take everyone's life but Shannon's (although he also tried to get out of that choice afterward). He might be pressured into agreeing to this if his marriage to Shannon was okayed. And in general I've been trying to find another side to him for a couple of episodes, so what the hell.

Fabulousvillain posted:

I like to think she does things like this everyday. Putting seals on doors to stores she goes to and listening through walls of hotel rooms instead of sleeping in them. Public bathrooms must be a nightmare.

She and Kinzo would probably have gotten along. He can jump out a third-story window and she can seal it up afterward with tape with an elaborate signature on it. I like that Erika refers a couple of times to the old Murder, She Wrote joke; everywhere Jessica Fletcher goes, someone dies, no matter how unlikely it is. In the real world, nobody would ever invite her anywhere!

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

oath2order posted:

Knox's 7th explicitly denies the possibility. Since Erika being the detective is said in Red, she cannot be the culprit. If you were thinking Erika murdered the people and is framing Natsuhi, I guess it's Game Over for you.

Right, it had both the "viewpoint character can't commit the crime" and "detective can't commit the crime" as separate sections.

Edit: It still occurs to me that they never actually cited Knox's 7th, and it'd be pretty witch-like to call out certain ones and ignore the others. Hmm...

The other note is that Erika physically cannot be correct here, since Rosa left the party at 1:00 to start moving to the guesthouse, and Erika claims that the murders must have happened before 1:00. Unless Rosa was literally a dead woman walking, this is impossible. So it theoretically happened between 1:00 and 3:00, which could have trapped the culprit there the whole time.

Genji died between 12:00 and 1:00, at which point the culprit moved to the guesthouse. It's possible this was a suicide, but unlikely.
So then there are two options - that one of the cousins/Rosa was a collaborator, but I'll deem that unlikely. It'd be veering too close to violating the red on it is absolutely impossible that they are just people playing dead.

I feel like to some degree, Bern/Erika are directing the game towards Krauss because they don't actually have an alibi for him.

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Apr 15, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

idonotlikepeas posted:

Eva created a plan to discredit Natsuhi and regain the headship for her family. She enlisted Shannon and Kanon to help. Kanon has motivation of his own and Shannon seems to be willing to help him out, in general. Shannon also might be motivated by currying favor with Eva.

Eva creating a plan to discredit Natsuhi is entirely believable. They really do seem to hate one another. It's not clear that simply by framing Natsuhi the headship would pass directly onto her family. Given that Kinzo's a crazy person, what would happen after that is entirely unpredictable. I'm fully on board the Shannon and Kanon being culprits train though.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Kanon could have revealed Kinzo's death himself, but that wouldn't satisfy his need for revenge, so he went along with Eva's plan but planned to commit more murders than she intended.
Eva pressured George into assisting with the plan. He's in the cousin room, so he can murder everyone else and pretend to be dead.

I think if this is the case, it's much more likely that Kanon was the mastermind and manipulated Eva into the initial killings. He holds all the cards here. We have to suppose that he told Eva about Kinzo's death for a reason. He gains nothing unless it furthers his revenge mission under the hypothesis that he's Natsuhi's abandoned child.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Not every corpse has been guaranteed to have been a corpse at the time of discovery, nor every corpse to have been fully inspected by anyone at that time.

Yep. This definitely seems important.

idonotlikepeas posted:

George killed the others, pretended to be dead, then helped with the cleanup. He also pretends to be the voice on the phone, using a disguised voice, whenever Kanon isn't available to do it. He is later murdered by Kanon, which satisfies the condition that all of the apparent victims are dead.

This is my biggest issue with this theory. If this is the case, why the hell didn't he kill Battler? If he's a) willing to kill Jessica and Maria, and b) the ostensible reason for the murders is to take back the headship for Eva's branch of the Ushiromiya family, not killing the new head is incomprehensible, especially when he's in the room with George (alive) and two bodies George he has just finished butchering. He can't have known in advance that Battler wouldn't notice till the morning, and if he'd noticed that night, everything would have collapsed.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Hideyoshi also faked his death after chaining the door. The "nobody would mistake a corpse on examination" rule doesn't apply because Eva ensured she and Nanjo were the ones who "checked" the corpse, and then they moved it out of the room. Eva secured Nanjo's cooperation through bribery. Later, Hideyoshi is genuinely killed by Kanon too.

This isn't outside the realm of possibility either. It certainly explains how Hideyoshi knew to go to that room. And it aligns with the fact that Hideyoshi and Eva seemed likely suspects in episode 3. We still don't know exactly how Eva survived into the Ange timeline, but if there were two parallel conspiracies and one of them took the other one out, that would explain why her family was all dead if she were the culprit.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Erika is incompetent.

Unfortunately, Erika appears to be highly competent at framing people!

whitehelm
Apr 20, 2008

Cyouni posted:

There still feels like there's a gaping hole here. At 1:00, Rosa is confirmed to have left the family meeting, and to have been there at all times prior to that. Erika insists that the murders happened prior to 1:00. Yet Rosa's body was found with the rest in the guestroom. So there has to be some flaw there, some path that allows for that to happen.

Erika is only saying that the culprit went up to the second floor before 1:00 because she was watching the stairs after that. The murders (or at least Rosa's murder) occurred after that, but the culprit in Erika's solution was already hiding somewhere on the second floor so they couldn't have an alibi.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

whitehelm posted:

Erika is only saying that the culprit went up to the second floor before 1:00 because she was watching the stairs after that. The murders (or at least Rosa's murder) occurred after that, but the culprit in Erika's solution was already hiding somewhere on the second floor so they couldn't have an alibi.

If we take Erika's statement and innocence as read, then the only person it could be is Krauss. From what I can tell, both sets of bodies were discovered at the same time, and the discoverers met up in the parlour area. Natsuhi had already been fetched by that time, so unless she made a mad dash from the guesthouse to her room in time to not get discovered, she's out even by Erika's logic. We know that they couldn't have left after 3:00, because spider-Erika was on the wall.

The only way the cousins/Rosa could be not-dead is if Nanjo were in on it the entire time, and if Battler and everyone else specifically did not look at the bodies when discovering them.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Cyouni posted:

The only way the cousins/Rosa could be not-dead is if Nanjo were in on it the entire time, and if Battler and everyone else specifically did not look at the bodies when discovering them.

Actually the narration implies that Battler at least looked at all of the cousins and Rosa. But given the ambiguity in the "at a glance" red text, I'm not sure whether that confirms their deaths or not.

E: I may as well quote the relevant scene:

ProfessorProf posted:



BGM: String Trio #600 Million in F Sharp Minor

"This is just too much... How... could anyone get away with something like this...?!!"

As they clung to Aniki's corpse, which would never wake up again, Aunt Eva and Uncle Hideyoshi cried.

"...That's enough. Do you think George-kun would like the two of you to see him this way...? Of course not...!"
"...Aneki. I know how you feel, but let's have Doctor Nanjo handle this..."
"You don't understand!! George was killed! George!! Geoooooooooorge, ugghaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh!!"
"Doctor Nanjo is right. We mustn't keep looking at George in such a state... This is for George's sake! We have to restrain ourselves for now...!"

When Aunt Eva tried even harder to cling to that corpse, Dad and Uncle Hideyoshi dragged her away and had a heated debate with her beside the wall...

"No, nooooooooooooo!! Geooooooooorge!! Doctor Nanjo! Help him!! If he's lost too much blood, do a blood transfusion!! George and I are the same blood type!! I beg you! Doctor Nanjo!!"
"...Eva-san. It pains me to say this, but your blood can't do George-kun any good now..."

Doctor Nanjo shook his head slightly, then nodded across to where I stood, giving me a signal. I softly pulled the blanket up... covering George-aniki's corpse.



Of course not... The large amount of blood which had poured out stained the bed a horrible red and black, and even covering him with the blanket couldn't hide the traces left by the blood which had leaked out. After all, there were even large, red-black stains on the blanket, and covering him with it made his corpse look even more gruesome... So I stripped the blanket off of my bed and placed it on top of the first one. But there were only two extra blankets. So if we covered one more of the corpses, we wouldn't be able to cover any more.

I feel bad about the ones we can't cover, but for some reason, times like these make me feel like muttering 'don't complain about it being unfair' inside my head...

"...Kyrie. Put blankets over all of them. Wouldn't want them to catch cold."
"...Sure."

Kyrie-san and I covered the other corpses up to their heads with their blankets, just like George-aniki's... So that they wouldn't have to undergo any more shame... with their terrible wounds exposed like this...



Jessica was exactly the same as George-aniki. Though she appeared to be resting quietly in the bed... her neck had been sliced deep and the wound lay open in a brutal way... And Maria was the same.

...Not only Maria. There was one more victim. Lying on the same bed as though they had been sleeping alongside each other... was Aunt Rosa. George-aniki, Jessica, Maria, and Aunt Rosa.



They had probably been like that since last night. I'd returned without noticing anything, gotten in bed, and fallen asleep... All of them had a horizontal cut across their throats. I had been... forced to see all the way... into the depths of those gashes in everyone's throats... At worst, the wound might have been deep enough to stretch halfway through their necks. If you tried to open it up, you'd probably be able to see that the gash reached all the way to the bone.

The only wounds were the single gashes on each neck. So if you just covered their necks with your hand, you might be able to persuade yourself that they were merely sleeping. But even so, this frighteningly deep wound... was incredibly... gruesome... There's no such thing as 'clean' or 'dirty' ways of killing. All methods of killing are equally brutal. But even so, this was horribly... brutal...

And... there was one more thing which adorned these brutal murders to make them even more unsettling.



It was drawn in a bright red paint which looked like blood and made it look as though some creepy ceremony had taken place in this room, with the four of them offered as human sacrifices...

It's all narrated in first person and George is described as George-aniki, which at least implies that Battler saw it.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Apr 15, 2017

Fabulousvillain
May 2, 2015
The only corpse that seems suspicious to me is Genji's since it seems like everyone just kind of accepted it without as much fanfare. I had a thought that Genji used Kinzo, or someone else's, corpse to fake his death and commit the murder. Erika's seals have all but solved that mystery. She's pretty competent at this detective poo poo, she's just so creepy and smug about it it's hard to route for her.

whitehelm
Apr 20, 2008

Cyouni posted:

We know that they couldn't have left after 3:00, because spider-Erika was on the wall.

There are other rooms on the second floor of the guesthouse besides Erika's and the cousin's. The culprit could've gone to the second floor before 1:00, killed Rosa between 1:00 and 3:00 and hid in another room, then just left after 3:00. Erika was only listening to the cousin's room at that point.

whitehelm fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Apr 15, 2017

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


Cyouni posted:

Genji died between 12:00 and 1:00, at which point the culprit moved to the guesthouse. It's possible this was a suicide, but unlikely.
So then there are two options - that one of the cousins/Rosa was a collaborator, but I'll deem that unlikely. It'd be veering too close to violating the red on it is absolutely impossible that they are just people playing dead.

Once again, that red was about corpses. None of the corpses were just people playing dead. Which is a useless tautology.

whitehelm posted:

Erika is only saying that the culprit went up to the second floor before 1:00 because she was watching the stairs after that. The murders (or at least Rosa's murder) occurred after that, but the culprit in Erika's solution was already hiding somewhere on the second floor so they couldn't have an alibi.

If the culprit was hiding on the second floor and Erika stayed up all night, where did the culprit go? How did they leave the second floor?

Rody One Half
Feb 18, 2011

I forget if y'all have previously seen what Virgilia is actually the witch of before now.

Fabulousvillain
May 2, 2015

Rodyle posted:

I forget if y'all have previously seen what Virgilia is actually the witch of before now.

It's been established that she was the previous Beatrice, but I don't think they have said if she has the Endless Witch/Golden Witch title. I may be misremembering but I think someone called her a Silver Witch or something.

whitehelm
Apr 20, 2008

Qrr posted:

If the culprit was hiding on the second floor and Erika stayed up all night, where did the culprit go? How did they leave the second floor?

I already answered that before you posted.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

whitehelm posted:

There are other rooms on the second floor of the guesthouse besides Erika's and the cousin's. The culprit could've gone to the second floor before 1:00, killed Rosa between 1:00 and 3:00 and hid in another room, then just left after 3:00. Erika was only listening to the cousin's room at that point.

That seems plausible, especially since Genji would already have been dead at that point and they could just unlock the rooms with his key.

Qrr posted:

Once again, that red was about corpses. None of the corpses were just people playing dead. Which is a useless tautology.

If we want to go that route, we must also start questioning the definitions of closed rooms, traps, and such, given those were never stated in red to be explicitly what they're referring to in past usages of the red.

thetruegentleman
Feb 5, 2011

You call that potato a Trump avatar?

THIS is a Trump Avatar!
I think you're right about Eva being involved, but it seems more likely that she was used by the killer to try and corner Natushi: if the culprit is one of the servants, they could have approached Eva and told her the truth about Kenzo being dead, and promised to help in proving it in exchange for money.

Also, since Erika admitted to learning the seal trick from Eva, it's now plausible that the culprit already knew the trick and utilized it; for example, if the culprit was working with Eva, they might have suggested that exact method as a way of cornering Natushi, and as a result, the seal trick would become entirely counterproductive. In fact, we should probably assume that the murderer not only knew about the trick, but was outright relying on it both to create an alibi and control people's movement.

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

Does this look like the face of mercy, kupo?
If Natsuhi is not the killer, and everyone else has an alibi, then we're left with only one scenario:
There were no murders that night.

...right?

lotus circle
Dec 25, 2012

Jushure Iburu
So don't worry
You forget the possibility that it was just a witch.

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011

tiistai posted:

It was confirmed right after Erika showed up that the number of the people on the island is only increased by one and that otherwise it's the same as ever. If you start supposing Culprit X here then you have to explain why it works for every episode. Also, the trial is far from over, don't worry about Kinzo and Krauss until they've been addressed.

You're making kind of a false equivalence here. There might be ways to work around a locked room murder, but using detective's authority to seal a room from the outside is a different matter altogether.

Kinda silly to return to this after another update, but it's been pointed out before that the red text about who's on the island is always worded very suspiciously. And we were just supposed to see that there's no red stopping Kinzo from being out wandering the island. You say we'll get there, so ok, we'll get there, but that checklist which is supposed to prove Natsuhi is guilty? It's so clearly wrong nobody should accept it for a minute.

You've hit on why I don't like Erika (besides being a horrible person). Before we've had the meta/discussion world and the real world and they were kept sealed from each other. We've been repeatedly reminded that "piece" Battler isn't the same as "meta" Battler. The actions taken by the real world characters have been reasonable for real world people. While we see many supernatural things happening in the real world, they're always debated, we're always asked "Did it happen that way?" The real story has to feel real, or the mystery breaks down into mush (as a number of people in this thread have complained).

And now Erika is running around the real world doing utterly bizarre things that nobody would ever do - and to absolutely no point. None of her actions matter, because it's only the red text that matters. If you want to solve the mystery/show Natsuhi's innocence, you look at the red text and completely ignore Erika.

I have to say, five arcs in, I can see that all that's going on is just a show to get Battler's attention. Beatrice is trying to get him to realize something, and I'm damned if I know what it is. We can guess, of course, and I have, but it's all pure speculation. Sooner or later this story is going to shift back to six years ago, right?

BurningStone fucked around with this message at 07:55 on Apr 16, 2017

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

Does this look like the face of mercy, kupo?
Seriously, though. So much of this red truth is devoted to establishing alibis. So we've got to accept them. And unless Krauss did it (doubtful), then we have to conclude that the people in thread shouting "PHRASING!" were absolutely right -- nobody would've mistaken the corpses for alive, because they were alive, there was no mistake.

But... that would seem to involve the culprit of this case being... everyone but Krauss and Natsuhi somehow???

Editing to add: Battler is the character whose viewpoint we can trust, supposedly, but that's meta-Battler. Not a piece-Battler that was under Bernkastel's control for the rest of the game. So we can't trust... any scenes from anyone? Or, more likely, we can trust Natsuhi scenes to an extent. Did she ever see either of the first two crime scenes? The bodies were gone by the time she got to the guesthouse. Did she go to check on Genji herself? If not, we have no credible witness to any body but Hideyoshi's.

curiousCat fucked around with this message at 07:57 on Apr 16, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Woo, ho boy, it took some pushing at the ends, but I've finally caught up. Too late for the end of the previous thread, but it looks like we haven't really gotten anywhere conclusive yet so prepare for a big theory dump.

First thing that's been bugging me, a bunch of people seem to have trouble remembering character's ages, so here's a handy chart:

George is 24
Battler, Jessica, and Shannon are 18 (Battler is exactly 18 years, 2 months, and 19 days old as of October 4th, 1986 incidentally)
Kannon is 16

None of this was stated in red, but until presented evidence otherwise I'll assume this basic biographical information is true. (And since it's been confirmed we need no further evidence to solve this thing, it's as good as red to me.) The big takeaway here is that none of them but George could be 1967-Beatrice's kid, and none could be Natsushi's cliff baby. Cliff baby could totally be 1967's kid, though, and just as dead as she is.

That out of the way, mystery time:

First up, Battler's Parentage

One thing I noticed from episode 4 that nobody seemed to pick up on is that fact that it's the only time in the series Battler refers to Kyrie as 'Mom'. EP 1 makes a big deal about how he thinks of her as a big sister, so I have to conclude that this change is a hint.
Around October of 1967 (busy year, that) a 21-year-old Rudolf was seeing at least two women, Kyrie and Asumu, and got both of them pregnant. Asumu was deemed a more politically advantageous wife, so he was compelled to marry her, probably against his wishes. Kyrie was either yakuza or had completely abandoned her family by this point so it isn't hard to see why Kinzo wouldn't like the match. The name Battler is picked out for Asumu's son. Come July 15 1968, Asumu's child is stillborn, so someone (probably Kinzo (Wouldn't put anything past him)) has him switched with Kyrie's son, who is now named Battler. In this scenario, Kyrie is probably the one Rudolf wanted to marry the whole time, which explains the quick turnaround on that marriage. Battler runs off and refuses to speak to his dad before the truth can be explained to him.

All of this doesn't really matter in the grand scheme. When Beatrice said the real Battler would remember his sin, it wasn't in red so it was just bullshit. She was sad that Battler didn't remember so in the process of taking her ball and going home she threw an irrelevant secret she knew about Battler out there to make him negate his own existence. This could mean she knows all the family secrets, but she could just know it by virtue of being the game master.

Next up Beatrice's Motive (Where Beatrice is the totally non-magical human culprit/mastermind, whoever they may be)

While a big deal is made about Beatrice having nothing to gain from the epitaph being solved, people do things they have nothing to gain from all the time, it's called altruism. So if she merely wanted someone else to gain something *cough*Battler*cough* it can still be said that she gains nothing. Furthermore, the Epitaph had been hanging there for at least 2 years, and nobody had yet solved it. (Ok, probably Beatrice solved it (after all the gold already belongs to her) but didn't want the gold/title so told nobody.) It has been proven that it can be solved in a single night -- Just from the existence of Furudo Erika this reasoning is possible -- so it stands to reason that if anybody who had already seen could solve it they would have already done so. And at game time, the only person seeing it for the first time is Battler. Therefore, When Beatrice challenged everyone to solve the riddle of the Epitaph, she believed that the only one capable of solving it was Battler. This gels with EP 3, Eva solving it would be a surprise, and not what Beatrice was going for, so the killings continue. Obviously singling out Battler in the challenge letter would be way too direct for someone who constructs an elaborate multi-dimensional closed-room murder as a love letter.

So why Battler, well on the balcony she indicates she wouldn't mind being his furniture. Translating from crazy witch speak, if Battler were the head she wouldn't mind serving the Ushiromiya. Conversely we can conclude that if anyone besides Battler were the head, she wouldn't want to serve. This line of reasoning suggests she is one of the servants, but I'll get there later.

So the other side of the scales is the murders, which aren't for revenge but are for Battler specifically. She doesn't enjoy the killing but does it anyway. Probably the hope is this will somehow prompt Battler to remember his sin? But that's a stretch. The most likely outcome of brutally murdering all of Battler's family is he gets pissed off and kills you. The flashing red before the final battle indicates this is exactly what Beatrice wants. His test in EP4 indicates if he remembers his sin he gets to be the head, which makes remembering = solving the riddle = being the head. So if one side is Battle is the Head and the other is Battler Kills Beatrice, we can conclude that if Battler doesn't remember his sin, Beatrice doesn't want to go on living and would rather die by Battler's hand. The rest of the family (save Maria, and her deaths are all pretty merciful) are poo poo so they all have to die to get this romanticized suicide-by-Battler, so be it.

All this amounts to this: Love and hate are two sides of the same coin, thus we can conclude that Beatrice is in love with Battler

Whew, almost there, time for the big one Who Is Beatrice
(tl;dr it's Kannon)

Just gonna launch right into this as it's mostly theory. First big leap: Kannon is trans, with some serious dissociative identity going on. For clarity's sake, only the Kannon persona will be referred to as he. During the 1980 family conference, 12-year-old Battler met 10-year-old Kannon. (He wasn't working there yet but he was still part of Kinzo's orphan brainwashing factory so there's no reason he could be on Rokkenjima for training.) Somehow, Battler learned about Kannon's secret desire to live as a woman and said something encouraging, supportive, and probably a little creepy. This gives Kannon the hope needed to seriously consider this desire. This is Battler's sin. Filled with this new sense of hope, Kannaon is inspired to confide in big sister Shannon. And then, after causing Kannon to fall in love with him, Battler loving disappears forever. Kannon's desire gets filed back under impossible dreams and unnecessary feelings for 'furniture'. Thus begins the creation of the Beatrice persona, modeled after the legend, a dumping ground for inconvenient feelings and desires, including a mountain of hatred and resentment for the Ushiromiya family and all their terribleness. Somewhere in here Beatrice née Kannon starts wearing a blond wig and a dress and having tea parties with Maria at the secret mansion while swapping spells for dealing with an unrelentingly lovely life including curses for punishing the wicked. Meanwhile the Kannon persona is just a big ball of nihilistic bitterness that doesn't even consider himself human.

Then one day it's announced that Battler will be returning after six years. Love and hate are inextricably entwined. A plan is hatched to bring Kannon/Beatrice either salvation or a merciful death, heaven or hell. Nanjo, Genji, and Kumasawa join up to make up for their complicity in the confinement and serial rape of at least one, possible two innocent women. Shannon helps because she's the best big sister ever. (Well, her only competition is Eva.) Thus begins the tale of the Golden Witch.


Broader observations in light of this theory: First off, the trans element isn't essential, just falling in love with Battler is enough to explain the witch persona being a woman Battler would find attractive. Second, Kannon is always the most violently, angrily opposed to Beatrice in the magical bullshit scenes; this represents the internal conflict going on inside someone in the process of murdering 15 people as well as Kannon's serious self-loathing. Third, this explains Kannon's rejection of Jessica because 1)"I'm already in love/hate with Battler" and 2)"Holy poo poo you wouldn't be asking me out if you knew the real me." Also explains his refusal to give his real name, would open several cans of worms if he told Jessica his real name is Beatrice.

Episode specific stuff:
EP 1: A lot of red is thrown out saying Kannon didn't die this way or Kannon didn't die that way. No red text is ever given that actually says Kannon died when he was stabbed in the boiler room.
EP 2: No Body. Kannon is Dead means the persona that is hesitant about this plot is done, probably died the moment they stabbed Jessica in the back. When "Kannon" shows up in the kitchen for murder, she's all Beatrice all the time.
EP 3: Faked death with Nanjo's help. Possibly spends the whole game hiding in the chapel while Eva tries to keep all the gold for herself, shows up at the end as Beatrice to shoot Nanjo in the face a lure Jessica away (who is blind so she can't tell 'Kannon' is wearing a wig and fake breasts.)
EP 4: No body, no death.

Other folks have already covered the more specifics of Kannon-as-Culprit so I'll just let those theories stand. (Also it's really late and I've been at this for like 2 hours.) Special thanks to whoever pointed out the strangeness of Kannon's first encounter with Battler in EP 1, which is when this theory really came together for me.


As for the case at hand, none of it really matters because it's just Lamdadelta trolling Beatrice.

So gently caress it, Krauss did it

MonsterEnvy
Feb 4, 2012

Shocked I tell you

curiousCat posted:

Seriously, though. So much of this red truth is devoted to establishing alibis. So we've got to accept them. And unless Krauss did it (doubtful), then we have to conclude that the people in thread shouting "PHRASING!" were absolutely right -- nobody would've mistaken the corpses for alive, because they were alive, there was no mistake.

But... that would seem to involve the culprit of this case being... everyone but Krauss and Natsuhi somehow???

Editing to add: Battler is the character whose viewpoint we can trust, supposedly, but that's meta-Battler. Not a piece-Battler that was under Bernkastel's control for the rest of the game. So we can't trust... any scenes from anyone? Or, more likely, we can trust Natsuhi scenes to an extent. Did she ever see either of the first two crime scenes? The bodies were gone by the time she got to the guesthouse. Did she go to check on Genji herself? If not, we have no credible witness to any body but Hideyoshi's.

We can trust Erika scenes apparently.

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

Does this look like the face of mercy, kupo?

MonsterEnvy posted:

We can trust Erika scenes apparently.

According to who? Erika? Bernkastel?

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

curiousCat posted:

According to who? Erika? Bernkastel?

Father Knox

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

BurningStone posted:

You've hit on why I don't like Erika (besides being a horrible person). Before we've had the meta/discussion world and the real world and they were kept sealed from each other. We've been repeatedly reminded that "piece" Battler isn't the same as "meta" Battler. The actions taken by the real world characters have been reasonable for real world people. While we see many supernatural things happening in the real world, they're always debated, we're always asked "Did it happen that way?" The real story has to feel real, or the mystery breaks down into mush (as a number of people in this thread have complained).

And now Erika is running around the real world doing utterly bizarre things that nobody would ever do - and to absolutely no point. None of her actions matter, because it's only the red text that matters.

Players affect the gameboard, nothing new or strange about this.

Erika's actions are what allows her to use red truth of her own via Bernkastel. There's no necessity for the witch side, Lambdadelta, to just give her free red regarding alibis without the seals and such. Perhaps Bern could've used those red truths she gave regardless of Erika, but like she said,

"...Yes, that's right. There's no need for us to show up for something like this. This is important precisely because a mere human like Furudo Erika will defeat you, Beato."
"...Because you'll be defeated by a human, we'll know. We'll all know that the fake witch who calls herself 'Beatrice the Golden' is nothing more than a sub-human phantom."

KataraniSword
Apr 22, 2008

but at least I don't have
a MLP or MSPA avatar.
I am my own man.

ZiegeDame posted:

Father Knox

The vaguely contradictory combination of the decalogue and the red text, yes. Erika is the detective, and according to Knox, not only can the detective not be a culprit, but any clues they discover must be presented for the reader.

The one point of contention on the reliability of her scenes is whether or not she actually spent all night listening to Battler breathing, and if so, why we didn't know about that before hand. :catstare:

BurningStone posted:

And now Erika is running around the real world doing utterly bizarre things that nobody would ever do - and to absolutely no point. None of her actions matter, because it's only the red text that matters. If you want to solve the mystery/show Natsuhi's innocence, you look at the red text and completely ignore Erika.

Bernkastel is a godmoding metagamer and uses Erika as little more than a direct mouthpiece, in other words. :v: So, you know. Nothing we didn't know before now.

KataraniSword fucked around with this message at 10:55 on Apr 16, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

KataraniSword posted:

The one point of contention on the reliability of her scenes is whether or not she actually spent all night listening to Battler breathing, and if so, why we didn't know about that before hand. :catstare:

I heard they edited out the adult content for the Western release.

curiousCat posted:

Seriously, though. So much of this red truth is devoted to establishing alibis. So we've got to accept them. And unless Krauss did it (doubtful), then we have to conclude that the people in thread shouting "PHRASING!" were absolutely right -- nobody would've mistaken the corpses for alive, because they were alive, there was no mistake.

Eh, I'm not sure about that. That's certainly one way of going about it, and it definitely makes sense as a solution, but it's also entirely possible that some of the red text for the alibis has loopholes in it that, given our collective incompetence, we've not spotted.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 12:17 on Apr 16, 2017

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


tiistai posted:

Players affect the gameboard, nothing new or strange about this.

Erika's actions are what allows her to use red truth of her own via Bernkastel. There's no necessity for the witch side, Lambdadelta, to just give her free red regarding alibis without the seals and such. Perhaps Bern could've used those red truths she gave regardless of Erika, but like she said,

"...Yes, that's right. There's no need for us to show up for something like this. This is important precisely because a mere human like Furudo Erika will defeat you, Beato."
"...Because you'll be defeated by a human, we'll know. We'll all know that the fake witch who calls herself 'Beatrice the Golden' is nothing more than a sub-human phantom."

Bernkastel is, of course, full of poo poo here, as usual. See the evidence:

ProfessorProf posted:

"Yeah, that's right. At 24:00, Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji were in the corridor on the second floor of the mansion. The rest of them were in the dining hall on the first floor. And as you know, there was a mysterious knock, and a letter with the One Wing seal on it appeared. The discussion surrounding that continued on until 1:00. I will say it with the red truth. Of all the people in the dining hall, not one of them left the dining hall until 1:00 AM...!"





Since the time that the crime was possible had been limited to between 24:00 and 1:00... The adults in the family conference, who, as had been guaranteed, hadn't left the mansion between 24:00 to 1:00, all had proven alibis.

"...A, and how do you intend to prove that?! Erika's in the guesthouse! Did someone prove it by using one of your favorite seals on the dining hall door?! You have no convincing evidence or proof...!!"



Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?


BGM: Patchwork Chimera

"What'll you do, Beato? At this rate, Natsuhi's in serious trouble, right? Will you accept the plea bargain? If you're willing to abandon this Ushiromiya family honor thing, Bern'll be kind enough to let you get off with a draw, okay...?"

Krauss is currently missing, and it is unknown whether he is alive or dead. Like Kinzo, he is no different than a 'cat in a box' that has disappeared into the mists of the island. A cat inside a box is unfixed, and no interpretation of it can be denied. It is the root of endless interpretations. The true source of the Endless Witch's power. In other words, no matter how much Bernkastel claims that Krauss is the culprit, she can't make that the sole truth.

In other words, the Krauss culprit theory and the witch theory can be in almost perfect balance. It would mean making the game a draw. This was cajolery... offering her a second chance if she abandons the honor of the family she swore to protect... and consents to a Fragment that stomps all over that honor.

There's no room for false confidence. For Beato, to lose is to die. In this game, she should always choose a draw unless she has an overwhelming advantage.

"...Mu, uu..."
"I won't allow you to treat my husband like the culprit!! My husband is the next head of the Ushiromiya family!! The only person who will inherit the glory of the Ushiromiya family! I will never let you treat him like a criminal...!!"
"...Are you sure, Natsuhi...? If you refuse to suspect Krauss, then... you'll be the only one left. Alibis have been proven for everyone else, in other words, Hempel's Raven...! Even without any evidence, it will be determined that you are the culprit...!"
"And so what if I'm the only one left?! I am Ushiromiya Natsuhi!! I will not run or hide! I am innocent!! And I am the representative of the noble head, with the One-winged Eagle engraved into my heart!! If you wish to insult me, go ahead! If you wish to ridicule me, do as you please!! No one can damage my honor with a mixture of truth and lies!!"

With a dignified voice, Natsuhi stated her case openly before the witches above her. However, this response of hers might have been exactly what Bernkastel had intended...

"...Natsuhi refuses the deal. And you, Beato?"
"...You understand, right? The instant Natsuhi is specified as the culprit, Lambda will make her verdict. As soon as that happens, the Illusion of the Witch will be denied, and you'll disappear into the mist. Do you plan to let Natsuhi's foolish bragging drag you down to the depths of hell...?"
"...Nn... gah..."



BGM: Kuina

"Both Lady Lambdadelta and Lady Bernkastel have boredom, not you, as their true enemy. They probably want to have this game repeat and play some more. If they see that you're willing to make a concession, they will most likely accept it gladly and move on to the next game."
"If we move on to the next game, then what will happen to the Natsuhi of this game... the Natsuhi of this Fragment...?"
"Now isn't the time to be worrying about that, right?! Natsuhi is just a piece! Even if she gets removed from this game, she'll show up again in the next one!"
"But you will not let that happen, Milady... I believe you know what Lady Bernkastel plans for this game. It's a more realistic goal to make use of that and aim for victory in the next game instead. Accepting Lady Bernkastel's deal might be our one and only good option right now...!"
"Throw away that useless pride of yours!! Neither Kasparov nor Deep Blue won every game! The person that wins more games wins in the end, right?! If a witch gets too attached to a single match, a single life, a single piece, that witch dies!!"



"I will not abandon Natsuhi! Why? Because if everyone else suspects Natsuhi, then someone has to believe in her! Because truth can only be found in the gap between those who doubt and those who believe...!!"
"I won't abandon her! Even if everyone believes that Natsuhi is the culprit, I will still claim that I, the witch, am the culprit...!! If I can't even make that claim, my existence isn't worth anything...!!"
"...I can't lose. The truth isn't something anyone gets to deny. When you doubt and abandon it yourself, it disappeeeeeeears!!"
"Is that your answer, Beato...?"
"Yeah, of course I refuse!! Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit!!"





"...Fool. I won't let you take that back, okay...? Here's what you get for being a quick-tempered moron. By the name of Bernkastel, Witch of Miracles, I speak with the red truth."



"N, no... D, dear, aaah... aaagghhhaaaaaaaaahhhh..."

Bernkastel's cruel and ruthless red blade gouged Natsuhi... It was... totally merciless... Natsuhi had been crushed with uncertainty, not knowing whether Krauss was alive or dead... but she had still been capable of believing that he was alive... And now, that hope ...that expectation... had been crushed... without any chance for a miracle...!!

She had thrown herself into this trap out of concern for her husband's safety. She had now lost her daughter and husband... and everything she had gained since marrying into the Ushiromiya family. No, even after all this, one thing still remains. If her husband has been lost, then right now, she is the last person who can protect the honor of the Ushiromiya family. She still... couldn't let it end here... Even wrapped up in so much sadness, Natsuhi would do all she could to protect that honor... with this final bit of strength...







BGM: Patchwork Chimera

"...Well done, Erika and Bernkastel! You've fully proven that the crime was impossible for everyone except Ushiromiya Natsuhi! Why don't I start reading aloud from the verdict."
"...At 24:00 on October 4th, 1986, the defendant, Ushiromiya Natsuhi, left before the others while pretending to return to her room to sleep, and murdered George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji one after another during the one hour period before 1:00 AM!"
"Let me add something on. Due to circumstantial evidence, include the murder of Krauss."
"Yeah, that's right. In this situation, it's unthinkable that anyone except Natsuhi could kill Krauss!!"
"A revision to the verdict! During the hour before 1:00 AM, Krauss, George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji were killed one after another! It's only possible for any of these murders to have taken place between 24:00 and 1:00! The only person without an alibi during this time was Ushiromiya Natsuhi...! From this point forward, the defendant will be treated as the true culprit."
"Furthermore, because it has been fully proven that the crime was possible for humans... Beatrice, the Endless Witch...!! This Court of Illusions hereby denies your existence!! You'll be given a chance to plead your case, but can you prove an alibi for Natsuhi? Or can you prove that it was possible for someone other than Natsuhi? If you can do that, Natsuhi will stop at being one shade short of absolutely guilty, and the denial of your existence will be put on hold for this game..."

If Natsuhi had an alibi, Beato would have shown it long ago. In fact, wasn't the whole point of that trap to make her lose her alibi...?



"...The truth is known only by the master of the night on this island, Beatrice the Golden. I am Ushiromiya Natsuhi! Now that my husband has passed away, I am the head of the Ushiromiya family!! My determination will not bend no matter how you try and humiliate me!"
"Why, you ask? It is because Father gave me permission to engrave the family crest of the One-winged Eagle into my heart...!! How do you intend to disprove the existence of this honor with your evidence and your alibis? You cannot!! The Ushiromiya family crest engraved into my heart is immortal!!"

...Now that Natsuhi and Beatrice had practically been placed on the guillotine, they cried out with all the strength of their determination... However, that did nothing except bring a cold smile to Lambdadelta's face. Erika had constructed a truth that Lambdadelta could accept. And no one could construct a more convincing truth to deny Erika's. In that case, the most convincing truth would swallow up everything else... and become the one and only 'truth'. Even if it happened to be different from the real truth.

The truth of those in the past is swallowed up by the truth of those in the future. This can happen even for a mixture of truth and lies. As long as everyone acknowledges it as true...!

"...Sheesh, stop howling already. I like it best when witches sob and beg for their lives when they're about to be burned at the stake."



"Wh, what do you mean...?"
"...S, stop it, Lady Bernkastel... Hasn't it already been overwritten with the truth you wished for...? That truth and Natsuhi's should be able to coexist... Please don't defile it, please..."





BGM: Spiral

When that heartless announcement was made... Kinzo stood up.

"Natsuhi!! You need not listen to this!! No one can defile the crest engraved in your heart!! That is yours alone!! Don't let your pride as the final family head be forgotten forever! Natsuhiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!"
"Just shut up and disappear. You miserable delusion of Natsuhi's."
"Nngggaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh!! You can't erase me! You can't erase my soul!! Not as long as the crest is engraved into Natsuhi's heart!!"



"Gwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhaaaaaaaahhhh, Na... tsuhi... nnggwoooooooooooohhhhhhh...!!!"

A bright red flash of lightning smashed Kinzo over and over again as he screamed. Then, he crumpled like a doll... and sat back down in his chair as though nothing had happened. The fierce emotion had left Kinzo's face. He had truly... become like a wax model. And so, he would never again share kind words with Natsuhi...

...That's right. The true Kinzo... never once trusted Natsuhi during his entire life. The true Kinzo... never once thought about allowing Natsuhi to bear the One-winged Eagle. Because, of course... Kinzo had already vanished before the start of the game. The Kinzo that appears in this game... is nothing more than Natsuhi's... delusion... Everything about this Kinzo, who believed in Natsuhi and entrusted her with protecting the family honor... was a phantom... created by Natsuhi...



"Wah... waaah..."
"...Natsuhi, don't cry. Kinzo... entrusted the Ushiromiya family... to you, right...?"

...No, he didn't. Not only did he not entrust her with that, he never said hello... or met her gaze even once...



Natsuhi's cry was a mixture of sadness and many other emotions... and it echoed throughout the cathedral... Natsuhi could no longer stop her tears. Some last, faint element that had cheered her up until today, that had allowed her to endure as an Ushiromiya, as the wife to the head's representative, and as the final family head... had been torn to bits... Natsuhi no longer... had anything left. Natsuhi could no longer allow herself to even call herself an Ushiromiya...

Those difficult days, those painful days. Those days where she still gave everything she could for the family she'd married into despite it all. The very few happy days among these. All of these flitted through her mind, one after another... and disappeared. All of those once beautiful memories... were then... crushed by Bernkastel's red truth, smashed to bits and scattered, plunged deep into her hands, and smeared red with sad blood...

...It was... the red of sadness and truth.



Lambdadelta... clapped. Then, a bit later, Bernkastel also clapped, looking pleased. The expressionless, wax figure-like audience followed suit, and the unshakable verdict was welcomed with a great applause...

And so, the 'truth' of this tale... was decided...



BGM: Discolor

And, with one exception, it has been shown that none of them have committed murder. And, the culprit is among these people.

"...Whoa, whoa. In that case, it's conclusive, isn't it...?"
"Unless the culprit is a witch who committed murder with magic, that is..."
"...It was you?! You killed George, killed my husband?! Why?!! Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?!!"



"..."

In a panic, and with a voice that really couldn't be called flowing, in a manner that was, to put it coldly, unsightly... Aunt Natsuhi denied the suspicion placed upon her... However, there was no longer any way around it...



Red-faced and tear-streaked, Eva walked up to Natsuhi... and grabbed her by the collar. Then, wordlessly, she slapped Natsuhi's cheek. Natsuhi, who had never been slapped in her life, was shocked by the taste of iron, which she was feeling for the first time. It turned into a scuffle between Eva and Natsuhi. Battler immediately tried to stop them, but Eva planted a sharp knee into Battler's gut and he doubled over.

"Give them back, give back George and my husband!! Why did you kill them?! You murderer, murdereeeeeeeer!!"

Sobbing, Eva kicked Natsuhi, who had fallen to the ground, over and over. Battler tried once more to cut in and stop them, but he was brushed aside, and after that, no one tried to stop them. Repeating her son and husband's names over and over, Eva kicked Natsuhi. And kicked her. Then she started grabbing whatever her eyes fell upon and throwing it. Natsuhi was hit with a steaming teacup, hit by a can of black tea, whose tea leaves fell out all over her. She was kicked, her hair pulled and dragged up, her cheek slapped so many times that it started to swell. No one tried to stop it. It wasn't because they were worried about Eva kicking them too. It was because they thought it an appropriate act of retribution for a person who had lost her beloved son and husband.

A proper... retribution. A proper... truth. Everyone in the parlor accepted that Natsuhi was the culprit... They accepted the truth Erika claimed. So it became a proper truth, and Natsuhi was designated as the proper culprit. She had already lost the husband and daughter who might have protected her, and even Kinzo, who should have given her a final bit of strength, had already vanished like a bubble in the ocean of illusions...

No longer... would anyone protect her. No longer... would anyone believe her.



Eva's shoulders heaved with her heavy breathing. Apparently, her anger still hadn't abated. Erika patted her shoulder and made Eva take a step back. Of course, this wasn't to protect Natsuhi from violence. It was to further humiliate Natsuhi, now that she had been branded as the culprit.



The 'why dunnit'...refers to the motive.

"If this was a third-rate mystery, Natsuhi-san would let out a high-pitched laugh about now, confess to the crime, and start telling the story of her sad past. Don't tell me you intend to make me explain that part as well?"
"...I am not the culprit!! Someone, believe me!! I just had my husband taken hostage, was threatened, and fell into a trap...!!"

Natsuhi, with her hair a mess and her face red and tear-streaked... protested to everyone, but no one met her gaze. Because it has already been resolved that Natsuhi was the culprit. Because Lambdadelta had acknowledged that the culprit of the tale was Natsuhi and woven it that way, none of the pieces would pay any heed to Natsuhi's... to 'the culprit's' words...



"Why can't you just call it my sin? Why must you suspect Natsuhi?!! Acknowledge me!! I committed all the crimes!! There's no way a human is the culpriiiiiiiiiit!!"

The Illusion of the Witch had already been crushed, and Beato's voice didn't reach anyone. The verdict had already been made. Everything had been decided.

"No one can hear you. You're a phantom, a mere illusion!"
"Go back to being a simple portrait! You're a faint phantom of a witch, born when Kinzo shared his illusion with his relatives!! That is the truth chosen by this world!!"
"So, great Lady Lambdadelta!! Now is the time for you to bury the ridiculous and foolish illusion that this witch claims is the truth...!!"



BGM: Kuina

"...I... am a witch... Even if Lady Lambdadelta doesn't acknowledge it... I'm a witch..."
"Oh, sure, but you wouldn't even be capable of believing that if I hadn't become your guardian in the first place...!! Yep, this is 'game over' for you. You will be buried in accordance with the rules of your game board. What happens to the losers in your game, again...?"
"Beato has already shown that clearly in a previous game. You get made into a mound of living flesh before being tossed into the goats' dinner party and getting chewed to bits."
"Now there's a fitting end for you, Beatrice. And I did come all the way here just to hear the death cries of one as haughty as you...!!"

One by one, a massive number of goat attendants slipped out from the shadows of the pillars and began to fill the cathedral. The goats paid no attention to Natsuhi, who was seated in the center, but the crowd completely enveloped her. From Beato's point of view up on the balcony, it probably looked like a huge boiling pot of goats.



"Yep. Our contract said that whenever you stopped entertaining me, you would relieve me of my boredom with your life!"
"Come, strip the title of witch from this woman and throw her into the pot of goats!!"

Suddenly, there were goats standing right behind Beato. They lifted her up roughly.

"Let me hear some nice screams. It's the wine you've been fermenting all this time."
"...Then perhaps refusing your request will be my final strike back at you..."
"Yeah! I made her say it! Uhihihahaaah!! The best screams always come from a girl who's just said some tired line like that."
"Fall! Beatriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiceeee...!!!"

The goats carrying Beato no longer viewed her as their master. After holding her above the pot of clambering goats, which were snorting heavily in anticipation... They threw Beato's slender body into the air. All at once, the squirming goats faced the heavens and raised their arms. It was almost as though they would be able to forget their pain for just a short while by devouring her flesh.

As she flew through the air, Beato tried to smile boldly, but it was so stiff that it seemed even more pathetic, greatly pleasing Bernkastel. When Beato fell into the pot, the goats caught her. Of course, they didn't do it gently. The arms of countless goats pulled at her flesh to keep it for themselves. They tried to tear her to bits. It didn't have to be flesh. Hair, fingernails, shoes, even bits of her dress worked just fine. The mouths of those goats were the gateway into hell. However, Beato was too big to enter into that gateway. So they had to chew and tear her into bits small enough to fit into it...!

...Beato let out a bold laugh. She laughed from inside the pot of goats. However, her expression was very different from the one she had wanted. It was an expression not of a witch, but of a single human yelling in her death throes.



BGM: None

Dlanor leapt forward, slicing all the goats in her path with a single flash of her longsword. It was a thin slice, like cutting through butter. The goats were surprised by Dlanor's sudden appearance and stepped back.

In the center, Beatrice cowered in tatters, sobbing...

"What's this supposed to be? Dlanor, Inquisitor of Heresy."

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012

wish Lowtax would get tired of YOUR POSTS

(n o i c e)
I just caught up to this entire lp (along with the last thread). Let me play catch up.

So Meta-Beatrice is afk'd so Lambdadelta and Bern decides to play a game of mystery vs fantasy. So Erika with her witch sponsor is trying to beat piece-Beatrice and Lambdadelta is just writing the story?

Kinzo is dead so mystery-side, Kinzo is Natsuhi's thoughts. This puts the amount of people to 17. Plus Erika which equals to 18. But since the detective can't be the murderer so basically 17 potential murderers.

Everyone has alibis etc etc but I think an important point of this update is that Bern basically confirmed the existence of a mystery 18th person with the red words that Krauss isn't the culprit and got murdered after the voice call. Isn't it Bern's responsibility now to explain the 18th person/mystery caller because they can now claim the 18th person is Beato and did all the murders?

lotus circle
Dec 25, 2012

Jushure Iburu
So don't worry
:drat:

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Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012

wish Lowtax would get tired of YOUR POSTS

(n o i c e)
also being a girl in umineko sounds like a poo poo deal.

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