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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

lotus circle posted:

She has an ideal work-life balance that is highly respected.

Also, this...


...is the face of someone who loves their job.

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Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

CottonWolf posted:

The only people who could have made it are the cousins (we know there's a telephone in their room), or Kumasawa and Gohda (if they have telephones in their rooms). Everyone else has an alibi. Kumasawa was supposedly asleep, though that was never stated in red. We know Gohda didn't make the call the following morning, though that doesn't rule him out for the previous night. Genji seemingly looks like he could have done it, but considering that when Genji finished transferring the call, he immediately returned to the waiting room, he couldn't have possibly made it, because talking occurs after transferring, and he immediately did something else.

So if you could prove that none of them could have done it, you could also prove either the existence of an extra person, or the absence of a person from the dining hall, which would then break all the alibis. I don't buy any of the cousins as the caller just because how you you explain that to everyone else in the room. Kumasawa would have to use a voice changer, but that's possible, as is Gohda, basically as is.

Also, to update my (wholly unconvincing) Genji theory in light of the fact that all the murders were homicides:

Genji or the body that the personality Genji inhabits was never sealed in the waiting room after 1:00, and was placed there by Kanon and Kumasawa in the morning when the crime was discovered. He waited in the guesthouse overnight and was killed the following morning by Kanon or Kumasawa.

I still argue Krauss + someone is a viable option. Krauss was simply killed by whomever his partner was (or whoever) after that second call was made. Everyone but Krauss may have alibis for the first twilight, and Krauss may have died after that morning call was made, but that in no way stops Krauss from being the one responsible for the first twilight, and then being killed after that. There also haven't been any calls since then, so Krauss could very easily have been the caller.

And yes, Dlanor is great.

lotus circle
Dec 25, 2012

Jushure Iburu
So don't worry

CottonWolf posted:

Also, this...


...is the face of someone who loves their job.
Dlanor came to kill witches and drink tea, and tea time is over.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


CottonWolf posted:

Also, this...


...is the face of someone who loves their job.

When you love what you do, you never work a day in your life.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

CottonWolf posted:

Er... Well. Um. That's sure not how I expected that to go.

Did Virgilia set him up?

Set him up how? She held off on giving that red after Battler was already resolved to fight anyway.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Goddamnit Battler...


I'm starting to loose track of what his goal even is here. If he's permitted to say a witch did it without instantly losing, there's a pretty easy line here. If the blue doesn't have to be used to deny witches, but merely deny something, and while he needs proof to use the red but not blue, here's an easy one. From the time Hiedyoshi entered the guest room until the time he was killed, Natsushi didn't leave the closet for even a second, nor did she open the door in any way. Therefore, she could not have killed Hideyoshi. Even if she did kill the 5 during the first twilight, it was under duress , following orders from the mysterious caller, and that caller is the true culprit.

This doesn't exonerate Natsushi in any way, but it at least keeps the real players in the game.

But, of course, Battler is incompetent

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


ZiegeDame posted:

Goddamnit Battler...


I'm starting to loose track of what his goal even is here. If he's permitted to say a witch did it without instantly losing, there's a pretty easy line here. If the blue doesn't have to be used to deny witches, but merely deny something, and while he needs proof to use the red but not blue, here's an easy one. From the time Hiedyoshi entered the guest room until the time he was killed, Natsushi didn't leave the closet for even a second, nor did she open the door in any way. Therefore, she could not have killed Hideyoshi. Even if she did kill the 5 during the first twilight, it was under duress , following orders from the mysterious caller, and that caller is the true culprit.

This doesn't exonerate Natsushi in any way, but it at least keeps the real players in the game.

But, of course, Battler is incompetent

The second twilight didnt even factor into the Trial at all. Natsuhi was convicted because she is the only one that doesnt have a confirmed alibi for the first twilight murders.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

tiistai posted:

Set him up how? She held off on giving that red after Battler was already resolved to fight anyway.

She gave him a piece of red text she knew he would attempt to use. Whether or not she knew only witches were allowed to use it in the trial is the question. If she did, she set him up to fail, by vanishing when she knew she'd be required to announce it to the court. If she'd been there to say it, everything could have been avoided.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
I will point out that we've gotten a confirmation of Battler's sin, and as expected it's a promise he made six years ago that he forgot about. Still probably that one with Shannon.

Rody One Half
Feb 18, 2011

So now that Battler's dead, please enjoy the following there episodes, now entirely ‹good›.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Cyouni posted:

I still argue Krauss + someone is a viable option. Krauss was simply killed by whomever his partner was (or whoever) after that second call was made. Everyone but Krauss may have alibis for the first twilight, and Krauss may have died after that morning call was made, but that in no way stops Krauss from being the one responsible for the first twilight, and then being killed after that. There also haven't been any calls since then, so Krauss could very easily have been the caller.

That's possible, but only if Krauss and Genji are working together. Genji arrives to tell Natsuhi about the call when she and Krauss are together, so either Genji has to be in on it and is setting up for Krauss or Krauss didn't make the call.

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

ZiegeDame posted:

But, of course, Battler is incompetent

For loving real. I go away for one weekend, come back to find everything's hosed? Seriously?

But oath2order is probably right in that the Second Twilight and any arguments concerning it will be shot down, in yet another example of the "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose" bullshit that the witches love to sling around. This is particularly bullshit which rankles in this instance because if I recall, we can go even further back to disprove this, because by this game's very reasoning, there's another person without an alibi running around: Kinzo, a hale old man that apparently might still be alive, because it was proven that he could have jumped outside in a storm. This was proven as an effective blue truth, so it renders all or most of Erika's crazy bullshit due to the timeframe being set up, because it means there was a potential crazy old man running around between midnight and one... one who had enough time, for example, to slip anywhere possible within the guest house, before Erika's bullshit tape sealed the entrances. Could have come back before Erika did, in fact! Could have jumped in another window, because why not, and waited in the guest room for all the kiddos to stop playing trump, before knifing them. Maybe he joined in the trump- crazy old man remember: That's just our Kinzo! And HEEEY: it looks like the all the judges knew it too, because oh lookie who's absent from the roster- Kinzo, again. Didn't even mention him; he didn't even come up until he tried to defend Natsuhi... after which he was shunted off right quick by rear end in a top hat Bern, lest even Stupidhead over there remember any of this or think to bring it up.

But I honestly don't know why she bothered with the subterfuge, considering the rear end in a top hat at the helm is our Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could gently caress literally everything up? Why couldn't you have just languished in your stupid life elsewhere, and quietly died of cancer out of our sight that we might have been unburdened by your staggering incompetence!? ALL you had to do here was not have the memory of a loving goldfish for two loving seconds; ALL you had to do was notice the big-rear end hints Dlanor was dropping you, as well as the THING YOU YOURSELF loving DID yesterday! What is even the point of your unforGIVEably pathetic rear end!? You know what: gently caress you; I take back everything even vaguely supportive I've said of you because you deserve to be dunked on-by Beatrice, by Berne, by us in this thread! What a fool I am, to think there was anything good coming from you, to think this was a tragedy... It's NOT!! It's a COMEDY!! A comedy of the loving USELESS CUNTFACE Battler Ushiromiya and his toxic misadventures; Oh, BOY, I wonder how he's going to gently caress everything up for everybody today. It's FUNNY!!! YOU'RE funny, you stupid loving maggot, writhing on your pin. You DESERVE to be laughed at, even in your worthless death. Thanks for loving nothing, Battler, and rot in hell. :ptui:

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
^^^ :stare:

oath2order posted:

The second twilight didnt even factor into the Trial at all. Natsuhi was convicted because she is the only one that doesnt have a confirmed alibi for the first twilight murders.

Further proof that the Mystery side has utterly failed in their job to disprove witches. Calling the trial finished here is a total farce.

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Apr 17, 2017

lotus circle
Dec 25, 2012

Jushure Iburu
So don't worry
Resurgam, buddy, are you gonna be ok?

Rody One Half
Feb 18, 2011

Res

Calm down man, it's a video game

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!



:yikes:

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

Sorry dude

Nea
Feb 28, 2014

Funny Little Guy Aficionado.


Holy poo poo my dude

I'm so glad I gave you that avatar.

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!

ZiegeDame posted:

Further proof that the Mystery side has utterly failed in their job to disprove witches. Calling the trial finished here is a total farce.

It's a logically valid proof.

1. Several people were murdered.
2. Nobody, no entity, and no force aside from one of the people in the mansion or the guesthouse committed the murder.
3. All the murders occurred between times A and B.
4. All people in the mansion and guesthouse who were not murdered in item 1 have their whereabouts accounted for between times A and B, except one.
5. None of the people whose whereabouts are accounted for were in a position to commit murder between times A and B.
∴ The remaining person is the murderer, QED.

The only reason we can't run trials like this in the real world is that we don't have witches to guarantee stuff like item 2 (and if we did, we'd consider them untrustworthy - the red text gets us out of all that because it's a condition of the story that it is always 100% accurate, if sometimes deceptively worded).

You can't attack the structure of this argument, you have to attack one of the premises. Battler has been going after 4. We have confirmation of 1 and 2 in red. Assuming Battler didn't miss anything on the alibis, 3 is the only one we can reasonably attack, because the red text surrounding it allows wiggle room. I assume that Battler will realize that while he's slowly dying here or something. Or maybe someone will bust in and save him again.

Oh, on the topic of the ages, since I missed that discussion: I'm assuming Kanon is older than he appears/was represented as, as part of the theory about him being the presumed-dead baby. A childhood injury such as he might have acquired from that incident could explain him not growing properly (and he's specifically pointed out as being a bit frail early on).

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


idonotlikepeas posted:

It's a logically valid proof.

1. Several people were murdered.
2. Nobody, no entity, and no force aside from one of the people in the mansion or the guesthouse committed the murder.
3. All the murders occurred between times A and B.
4. All people in the mansion and guesthouse who were not murdered in item 1 have their whereabouts accounted for between times A and B, except one.
5. None of the people whose whereabouts are accounted for were in a position to commit murder between times A and B.
∴ The remaining person is the murderer, QED.

The only reason we can't run trials like this in the real world is that we don't have witches to guarantee stuff like item 2 (and if we did, we'd consider them untrustworthy - the red text gets us out of all that because it's a condition of the story that it is always 100% accurate, if sometimes deceptively worded).

You can't attack the structure of this argument, you have to attack one of the premises. Battler has been going after 4. We have confirmation of 1 and 2 in red. Assuming Battler didn't miss anything on the alibis, 3 is the only one we can reasonably attack, because the red text surrounding it allows wiggle room. I assume that Battler will realize that while he's slowly dying here or something. Or maybe someone will bust in and save him again.

Oh, on the topic of the ages, since I missed that discussion: I'm assuming Kanon is older than he appears/was represented as, as part of the theory about him being the presumed-dead baby. A childhood injury such as he might have acquired from that incident could explain him not growing properly (and he's specifically pointed out as being a bit frail early on).

You know, Peas, you're still missing the obvious solution.

Natsuhi is innocent because the people in the guest room were killed by magic.

The logic checks out!

Deckard6
Nov 8, 2012
Battler's failure here is because he's getting too emotional again. He's focused on countering individual Truths one at a time. So the Knox gang is backing him into a corner with each Truth until he finds himself out of perceived options.

He has a Red Truth at his disposal the confirms that the box he's found himself in isn't as solid as it looks. What he needs is some quiet time to parse everything, and come up with a complete counter Blue that circumnavigates of of Erika's nasty little Red barriers. Fortunately it seems he will have plenty of time while stuck on the end of that sword.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
Goodness, I see the thread's been lively today.

It's worth keeping in mind that mysteries are much easier to solve in four weeks as a 20-person team than they are to solve in four hours as a solitary dude whose family is being murdered in front of him repeatedly.

Yurigasaki
Feb 27, 2016

Lulu's so clever!

are

a--are you gonna be okay, my dude

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

It's okay, chill... (also watch your language) Sometimes characters are going to suck, but that's all according to the story. It's all just a story. Just think of this moment as something that allows an even cooler thing to happen.

For example, this:

Rodyle posted:

So now that Battler's dead, please enjoy the following there episodes, now entirely ‹good›.

I'm pumped about this. :madmax:

edit: I actually don't know for sure who killed anyone on the first twilight. Probably Genji because he was the only 'corpse' that was not inspected.

MonsterEnvy
Feb 4, 2012

Shocked I tell you
He is Battler. He is even falling to his emotions.

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!

oath2order posted:

You know, Peas, you're still missing the obvious solution.

Natsuhi is innocent because the people in the guest room were killed by magic.

The logic checks out!

In this particular case, that could actually be done, if Battler were willing to make that argument and if witches existed, which they don't. Magic lets someone bypass one of those seals to murder someone remotely by, e.g., summoning ridiculous bunny girls who can shoot magic arrows through solid objects. Except that Dlanor might still deny it: Knox's 8th states that clues must be presented. Have we seen any evidence that Beatrice summoned bunny girls to murder people, or can we suggest a reasonable motive for her to do so, especially given that the epitaph's conditions were successfully satisfied this time? Even in the fantasy segments she just sends Gaap to tidy up after the actual murderer. I'd actually like to see a version of a magical solution to this crime that still conformed to the red text, including the specific Knox rules that have been stated so far, just as a logical exercise. You know, to pass the time while we wait for Battler to see the actual solution.

EagerSleeper posted:

I'm pumped about this. :madmax:

I wouldn't mind seeing a detective series about Erika where she almost gets everything right except one tiny fuckup that pins the murder on the wrong person.

Actually, I recall an Ellery Queen story in which he did something like that. He does the whole parlor scene and everything. Except there's one more chapter after that, where a tiny bit of additional information shows that he got it wrong, and he finds the real criminal; it was a nice break from the form. (I won't name the story, to avoid spoiling it.)

thetruegentleman
Feb 5, 2011

You call that potato a Trump avatar?

THIS is a Trump Avatar!
Still a fair number of important thing being overlooked:

1. "Come on, Battler. Prove the red you have SHOWN. If you cannot, this is GOODBYE."
-This is proof that the Red Truth isn't absolute: everything Erika said that Bern refused to elaborate on (only restate in red) is actually very weak, and can thus can be negated if Battler can find a weakness. Since we know Natushi isn't the culprit, there must exist a greater truth he can use to do this.

-The phone is an obvious weak-link, because people other than Natushi have acknowledged that a caller really did exist: in fact, If the internal phone line was in use, it's very strange that Genji didn't bother to try and find where the call came from, since he should know the outside lines don't work in a storm. Further, since Erika has proven that fingerprints can be searched for using materials on the island, he should have been checking the phones for unknown prints. So why didn't he?

2. Bern can't win the game like this: she bet on Battler's victory, and he just delayed that (at the very least). Lamdadelta bet on neither side winning, so she can be counted on to thwart Bern for awhile while Battler and Beatrice try to figure out the truth.

3. Erika sealed all ENTRANCES, but she still hasn't proven that they weren't resealed by people who knew the method, only that the seal was still there when she checked them.

4. Battler does his best thinking after he's been impaled.

KataraniSword
Apr 22, 2008

but at least I don't have
a MLP or MSPA avatar.
I am my own man.

ProfessorProf posted:

It's worth keeping in mind that mysteries are much easier to solve in four weeks as a 20-person team than they are to solve in four hours as a solitary dude whose family is being murdered in front of him repeatedly.

And whose murders get rubbed in his face in particular repeatedly.

Bern brought up Ange because she knew exactly the reaction he'd give just based on his actions throughout the end of Ep 4 and beginning of Ep 5 - as he's shown in this episode alone, he's surprisingly competent when he's not letting his emotions control him. Bern's playing a mean game explicitly because she knows she can totally defang him if he's running on tilt.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

thetruegentleman posted:

Still a fair number of important thing being overlooked:

1. "Come on, Battler. Prove the red you have SHOWN. If you cannot, this is GOODBYE."
-This is proof that the Red Truth isn't absolute: everything Erika said that Bern refused to elaborate on (only restate in red) is actually very weak, and can thus can be negated if Battler can find a weakness. Since we know Natushi isn't the culprit, there must exist a greater truth he can use to do this.

2. Bern can't win the game like this: she bet on Battler's victory, and he just delayed that (at the very least). Lamdadelta bet on neither side winning, so she can be counted on to thwart Bern for awhile while Battler and Beatrice try to figure out the truth.

3. Erika sealed all ENTRANCES, but she still hasn't proven that they weren't resealed by people who knew the method, only that the seal was still there when she checked them.

4. Battler does his best thinking after he's been impaled.

1. His red is weak because it's baseless and - more importantly - he's not a witch, as was stated. Erika actually constructed her arguments and Bern stated them in red, they're not weak at all.

2. Battler is irrelevant to Bern, she's just playing the human side.

3. This was already denied in red. Resealing, even knowing the precise method (how many methods are there to putting duct tape on the wall?), would have left marks and there were none.

4. Better hope so.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

CottonWolf posted:

That's possible, but only if Krauss and Genji are working together. Genji arrives to tell Natsuhi about the call when she and Krauss are together, so either Genji has to be in on it and is setting up for Krauss or Krauss didn't make the call.

Well, we already know Genji's willing to obey orders like "say X happened" in regards to Kinzo, so it's not much of a stretch to include Krauss in that.

Technically, the red specifies Krauss isn't the culprit, but I can easily get around that by doing the same thing as Danganronpa - the culprit is qualified as the person who planned and executed the whole thing, and Krauss simply counts as a pawn.

Fabulousvillain
May 2, 2015

thetruegentleman posted:

4. Battler does his best thinking after he's been impaled.

Battler got dunked on so hard he gets impaled and knows that Beatrice, Natsuhi, and probably everyone else in his family will die with him and won't even know why this ever happened in the first place. For Beatrice it was the worst day of her life, for Bernkastel it was Tuesday, but for Battler it reminds him of a puzzle.

thetruegentleman
Feb 5, 2011

You call that potato a Trump avatar?

THIS is a Trump Avatar!

tiistai posted:

1. His red is weak because it's baseless and - more importantly - he's not a witch, as was stated. Erika actually constructed her arguments and Bern stated them in red, they're not weak at all.

2. Battler is irrelevant to Bern, she's just playing the human side.

3. This was already denied in red. Resealing, even knowing the precise method (how many methods are there to putting duct tape on the wall?), would have left marks and there were none.

4. Better hope so.

1. He doesn't need to be witch: he's fighting Knox and Erika, so those are the arguments his red needs to be able to defeat.

2.

3. It was said "Eva's seal was of the same type as <Miss> Erika's", and that the Seals weren't tampered with: in others words, the Seals could still have been replaced by using Eva's seal, as they would have been replaced, not damaged, and they would also be coming from the same source. That way, there is also no need to attempt prevent marks.

4. O ye of little faith :colbert:.

Mister Olympus
Oct 31, 2011

Buzzard, Who Steals From Dead Bodies
Did we ever get a red confirming that the mystery caller had to have been someone on the island that we physically saw? Knox's 1st wouldn't apply if the culprit was phone, as they were clearly introduced, nor would the 10th, as the conversations with Natsuhi dropped plenty of valid clues as to a potential identity.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

idonotlikepeas posted:

It's a logically valid proof.

Yes, but the victory condition for the human side is not proving that one of the murders could have been done by a human. It's proving all of the murders could have been done by a human. Until they've covered Hideyoshi they aren't done.

It's a cheap dodge, sure, but it at least buys time better than doing nothing and getting impaled.

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

thetruegentleman posted:

4. Battler does his best thinking after he's been impaled.

Shouldn't this have been the easter update?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

EagerSleeper posted:

Shouldn't this have been the easter update?

:golfclap:

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

Does this look like the face of mercy, kupo?
"All deaths were homicides".

And if there were no deaths, then there were no homicides. Nothing happened that night. I don't know how, or why, but if everyone has an alibi, this is it. I know I sound crazy here but, like... this just sounds right to me.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

curiousCat posted:

"All deaths were homicides".

And if there were no deaths, then there were no homicides. Nothing happened that night. I don't know how, or why, but if everyone has an alibi, this is it. I know I sound crazy here but, like... this just sounds right to me.

It'd be a neat dodge, but it has two problems.

1. George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji really are dead. So you then have to explain how they died later.
2. With a conspiracy so grand that literally EVERYONE has to be in on it, you get the problem that Battler both has to have been involved in the murders but not be capable of explaining how they were done before the court. Unless you want to hypothesis that Battler is the only person who doesn't know, but then you have explain why the hell all the cousins and Rosa are willing to get into elaborate stage makeup to trick Battler before getting murdered by persons unknown.

Poltergrift
Feb 16, 2014



"When I grow up, I'm gonna be a proper swordsman. One with clothes."
I'm almost certainly missing something, but couldn't Battler have used Knox to deny that Natsuhi was the culprit?

The criminal must be mentioned in the early part of the story, but must not be anyone whose thoughts the reader has been allowed to know. And didn't we follow Natsuhi's thoughts when she got those phone calls?

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tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

thetruegentleman posted:

1. He doesn't need to be witch: he's fighting Knox and Erika, so those are the arguments his red needs to be able to defeat.

2.

3. It was said "Eva's seal was of the same type as <Miss> Erika's", and that the Seals weren't tampered with: in others words, the Seals could still have been replaced by using Eva's seal, as they would have been replaced, not damaged, and they would also be coming from the same source. That way, there is also no need to attempt prevent marks.

4. O ye of little faith :colbert:.

1. The problem isn't who he's fighting. "...In this court, if anyone other than witches is going to speak the red truth, they'll have to construct an appropriate proof for it. Erika has been following this procedure, right...?"

2. No longer relevant. Battler voluntarily gave his seat to Bern, so what does she need him now for?

3. Regardless, doing anything at all to the seals would have left marks. It doesn't matter what kind of marks or where, the red guarantees that there were none on any of the seals. Also, replacing a seal means discarding the original, and Bern said none of them were tampered with in any way that hindered their ability to act as seals, and because discarding or breaking a seal clearly means hindering its ability to act as one, none of them were discarded or broken.

4. :witch:

Poltergrift posted:

I'm almost certainly missing something, but couldn't Battler have used Knox to deny that Natsuhi was the culprit?

The criminal must be mentioned in the early part of the story, but must not be anyone whose thoughts the reader has been allowed to know. And didn't we follow Natsuhi's thoughts when she got those phone calls?

That's not a red that has been said in the story and I don't understand why you guys keep repeating it.

tiistai fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Apr 17, 2017

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