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Which Thread Title shall we name this new thread? This poll is closed. |
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| Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce |
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44 | 21.36% |
| ScotPol - Unclustering this gently caress |
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19 | 9.22% |
| Trainspotting 2: Independence is my heroin |
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9 | 4.37% |
| Indyref II: Boris hosed a Dead Country |
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14 | 6.80% |
| ScotPol: Wings over Bullshit |
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8 | 3.88% |
| Independence 2: Cameron Lied, UK Died |
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24 | 11.65% |
| Scotpol IV: I Vow To Flee My Country |
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14 | 6.80% |
| ScotPol - A twice in a generation thread |
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17 | 8.25% |
| ScotPol - Where Everything's hosed Up and the Referendums Don't Matter |
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15 | 7.28% |
| ScotPol Thread: Dependence Referendum Incoming |
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2 | 0.97% |
| Indyref II: The Scottish Insturgeoncy |
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10 | 4.85% |
| ScotPol Thread: Act of European Union |
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5 | 2.43% |
| ScotPol - Like Game of Thrones only we wish we would all die |
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25 | 12.14% |
| Total: | 206 votes | ||
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Pissflaps posted:That would be a nightmare result for the SNP. How exactly is a number of seats more in line with the percentage of votes actually received by the party a "nightmare result"? They almost literally cannot gain any seats, it's expected for them to lose a few in any reasonable democracy. Losing as many as 10 might be a bit worrying for the party, but % of seats in line with % of vote can only be a good thing.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:36
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I don't really see the SNP dipping under 50 seats
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Apr 18, 2017 13:39
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Aramoro posted:I don't really see the SNP dipping under 50 seats I'd agree with that.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:39
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Because the SNP need to present themselves as being the uncontested 'voice of Scotland'. Equivocating about it being 'in line with vote' share won't cut it. The SNP have had amazing momentum over the last few years and such a result would be a clear indicator of a high water mark. To be clear I'm talking in terms of their push for a referendum and independence, not purely as a party political force.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:41
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Aramoro posted:I don't really see the SNP dipping under 50 seats I think you're probably right.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:42
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forkboy84 posted:I'm not sure it'd be a nightmare, it's still a very good performance considering how many MPs they had this time 2 year years ago, but it would be a solid confirmation that there's gently caress all chance of ScotRef passing. They were always going to lose MPs because this isn't held 6 months after the first independence referendum, though I do think Venomous's view is an extreme result. There's been no boundary reform as of yet, and while getting 49.97% nationally is not happening again and never would, the SNP losing 13 MPs seems...I don't see it personally. This is a fair point. I didn't consider the lack of boundary reform, and I also haven't looked into the polls recently. Thinking about it, if they lose Edinburgh West, they wouldn't even be losing a seat since iirc Michelle Thomson still hasn't rejoined the SNP. Same with Natalie McGarry and Glasgow East. 50 is a more reasonable estimate tbh. I still can't see the Tories making a resurgence though. By the looks of things there haven't been any Scottish polls for the general elections and since the Scottish local elections are conducted via STV I'm not really sure how well the Conservative support there will translate into seats. I still don't see the Tories doing all that well under FPTP, whereas the Lib Dems will probably take the Northern Isles (Carmichael's been out of the spotlight recently) and Edinburgh West and Labour will probably retake Glasgow East. I dunno, you have a point about the Tories and the Borders.
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Apr 18, 2017 14:12
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Venomous posted:This is a fair point. I didn't consider the lack of boundary reform, and I also haven't looked into the polls recently. Thinking about it, if they lose Edinburgh West, they wouldn't even be losing a seat since iirc Michelle Thomson still hasn't rejoined the SNP. Same with Natalie McGarry and Glasgow East. 50 is a more reasonable estimate tbh.
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Apr 18, 2017 14:16
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Venomous posted:The Tories probably won't make ground in Scotland under FPTP, especially after Davidson's defense of the rape clause. Edinburgh West is 100% going to the Lib Dems at the very least, and Ian Murray will probably retain. Otherwise, I can see Black, Wishart, Sheppard, Robertson and Salmond definitely keeping their seats, but a fair few SNP folks will lose their seats to the Lib Dems. I'm guessing they'll have about 42 seats, something around that scale. Definitely the majority party in Scotland. Why are you so sure Edinburgh West is going Lib Dem?
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Apr 18, 2017 15:29
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Yeah, the only way Labour are even within a whiff of a Glasgow seat is if there's another McGarry situation. Labour will probably just try to hold Edinburgh South and hope for the best. Berwickshire is probably a lock for a Tory gain at this point, since it was the closest SNP pickup in 2015. Moray would be vulnerable if Angus Robertson didn't hold the seat, his personal vote should save him. Salmond could also be upset in Gordon since he didn't win that emphatically in 2015 but vote splitting between the Lib-Dems and Tories could see him survive as well. Banff and Buchan looks vulnerable on the face of it due to the large fishing population, but Whitefords been MP for a while and she won 60% of the vote last time. I can see a hefty swing there but an overall pickup for the Tories seems unlikely. Honestly, looking at the map and the electoral system. I can't really see many places where the Tories can make pickups outside of the North-East and the borders. Consider they only got 7 constituency seats out of 73 in 2016 of which 4 were gains. However, a really good night across the UK might translate north. The Lib-Dems might pull a Rennie-esque surprise somewhere but there's no real way of predicting it. Overall, this is the SNP's GE to lose in the sense that any reduction in seats will be seen as a blow. Being the biggest party, they have the most variability as well My prediction: SNP: 49-56 Tories: 2-6 Labour: 0-2 Lib-Dems: 1-2
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Apr 18, 2017 15:31
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My early days bullshit prediction is that the SNP will lose 2 or 3 seats to the Tories, ScotLab and the Liberals will continue to be irrelevant, the Greens will not figure. Tories will then claim that the Nats don't have a mandate because they only won 45% of the vote (ignoring the fact that they have are probably the UK Govnmt on the basis of 30something%.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:45
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keep punching joe posted:My early days bullshit prediction is that the SNP will lose 2 or 3 seats to the Tories, ScotLab and the Liberals will continue to be irrelevant, the Greens will not figure. This is probably what I'm expecting. Fuuuuuuuck I really want PM Corbyn though
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Apr 18, 2017 18:31
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This is all going to be so utterly loving pointless from up here. The only thing for Labour members to do will either be to travel to Edinburgh to campaign for utter oval office Ian Murray, stay where they are and campaign against an SNP majority of over 10,000, or go to England and campaign for someone who has the slightest chance of winning and isn't scum. What the gently caress is the point?
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Apr 18, 2017 18:44
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I do have some small hopes for some fresh Labour faces emerging. A couple of LFI folk are talking about going for their nominations. But yeah....it's a tough bind up here. And Murray is a fanny that all the lefties hate. Why is everyone so sure Edinburgh west is going lib dem?
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Apr 18, 2017 18:47
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Acaila posted:I do have some small hopes for some fresh Labour faces emerging. A couple of LFI folk are talking about going for their nominations. But yeah....it's a tough bind up here. And Murray is a fanny that all the lefties hate. Because it used to be Liberal, & what's her face proved to be really dodgy. Even though she'll not be the SNP candidate this time round, that sort of thing could hurt, guilt by association sort of thing. Add in that the SNP will lose votes now that this is going to be taken as a big part of any ScotRef, and the Lib Dems place as the only big anti-Brexit, pro-Union party, doesn't seem a stretch to imagine they can pick up 1,500 votes from the SNP. (Alternatively, because Edinburgh is terrible and evil)
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Apr 18, 2017 19:18
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Coohoolin posted:Why are you so sure Edinburgh West is going Lib Dem? I live there. We went Lib Dem for the Scottish Parliament elections after Michelle Thomson hosed up, and it's either the Lib Dems or the Tories at this point for Westminster. However, we haven't returned a Tory MP since 1992, so the chances of us going for anything other than the Lib Dem candidate are quite slim. I mean, the SNP still has a presence around here, but their chances are a bit more slim now for the aforementioned reasons. Comedy option: we return a Labour MP for the first time since 1929. e: also, are Thomson and McGarry going to stand again? If so, they might split the nationalist votes because of the incumbency effect. Of course, this only applies if the SNP run candidates against them. Venomous fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Apr 18, 2017 |
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Apr 18, 2017 21:01
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Venomous posted:I live there. We went Lib Dem for the Scottish Parliament elections after Michelle Thomson hosed up, and it's either the Lib Dems or the Tories at this point for Westminster. However, we haven't returned a Tory MP since 1992, so the chances of us going for anything other than the Lib Dem candidate are quite slim. I mean, the SNP still has a presence around here, but their chances are a bit more slim now for the aforementioned reasons. The SNP will run candidates against them. Assuming they even stand again, which I don't think is a guarantee. "it's either Lib Dem or Tory" is based on what? The SNP got more than twice the votes the Tories got in 2016, though obviously Holyrood & Westminster boundaries aren't identical. It'd be stunning if the Tories beat the Nats to 2nd place.
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Apr 18, 2017 21:11
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Eh, you're probably right. I dunno, I'm pulling poo poo out of my arse here to distract myself from the final stretch of this fuckin dissertation.
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Apr 18, 2017 21:58
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Since I'm a loving nerd here the potential targets for each party in Scotland, from most likely to least likely to win. SNP: All of them but Edinburgh South is the likeliest pickup. The SNP will be fighting a defensive election. They are by far the most well-resourced and well funded party north of the border. However, if the Tories feel like they can make a breakthrough in areas like the North-East, then they might outspend the SNP in those constituencies. Labour: None. East Lothian at an absolute stretch. The one thing that can be agreed upon is that Scottish Labour will probably continue to be majorly hosed in the near future. The real question is where their vote goes. Tories: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (or WAn'K) Gordon Moray East Renfrewshire (If Labour voters tactical vote for the Tories then this could be higher) Banff & Buchan So a realistic maximum of about 6 gains for the Tories if they have a really good night. Any further than that and you start hitting the tipping point where areas like Angus and even Aberdeen South start to become vulnerable. Lib-Dems: Edinburgh West East Dunbartonshire (This could be higher than Edinburgh West if Jo Swinson opts to run again) Gordon (at a stretch) If the hashtaglibdemfightback is a real thing then they could start foraying into their old Highland strongholds. But that's really just conjecture at this point.
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Apr 18, 2017 22:23
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Has Salmond not done a good job as constituency MP for Gordon? I don't see him losing his seat, is the thing.
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Apr 18, 2017 22:52
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Yeah, in hindsight Moray should be ahead of Gordon on that list. It really depends on if one party can get tactical voting support from the other, since Salmond didn't win a majority in 2015.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:06
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Leggsy posted:Yeah, in hindsight Moray should be ahead of Gordon on that list. It really depends on if one party can get tactical voting support from the other, since Salmond didn't win a majority in 2015. Nah, I'd be flabbergasted if Angus Robertson lost his seat. Yes, Tories are strong on Moray Council but Robertson is a long standing and popular local MP. Salmond losing would be an upset but I deffo think he's a bigger chance of him losing than Angus. And based on gently caress all besides living in the Highlands, I've gotten no hints of a serious Liberal come back. But the council elections in a month will see if I'm right or not. Kind of handy having elections just before the election really.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:24
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I wonder how Orkney and Shetland is going to go. I know Alastair Carmichael has pissed off a lot of hardline Nats mainly by existing, though maybe if the lib dems hashtag fight back by becoming the no brexit party of no brexit it might swing back? Still my #1 prediction is the results from Scotland are going to be ten times less exciting than those of elsewhere. wheeeee
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Apr 18, 2017 23:31
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Hard line nats are always pissed off it's their thing.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:43
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They held on in the Northern Isles at the Scottish election though and the seething was fresher then.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:59
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Venomous posted:Eh, you're probably right. I dunno, I'm pulling poo poo out of my arse here to distract myself from the final stretch of this fuckin dissertation. All talk of the absolute void of hopelessness that is the snap election aside, best of luck with the dissertation. The end part can be mentally brutal, that whole final where's-the-time-gone no-more-procrastination-possible panic thing. Try and vent about it when you can, just relying on distraction wasn't all that helpful in my experience! 
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Apr 19, 2017 00:15
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Calling it now that the SNP win 58/59, you can put that in the fancy prediction table someone will no doubt be starting soon.
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Apr 19, 2017 00:58
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duckmaster posted:Calling it now that the SNP win 58/59, you can put that in the fancy prediction table someone will no doubt be starting soon.
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Apr 19, 2017 00:58
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Venomous posted:Has Salmond not done a good job as constituency MP for Gordon? I don't see him losing his seat, is the thing. Salmond's been too busy showboating in Westminster and writing columns for the McSturmer to give two tugs on a dead dog's cock about his constituency. I don't know if it's enough to get him out, though. WANK isn't really likely to go Tory. It was one of the biggest SNP swings in the country and 2015 was an anomaly: historically the constituency has voted for the man, not the party. On the other hand, the incumbent is a Tartan Tory who supported the latest round of gerrymandering. With referendum fever dying down, the seat could go back to the Lib Dems.
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Apr 19, 2017 01:23
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Jedit posted:Salmond's been too busy showboating in Westminster and writing columns for the McSturmer to give two tugs on a dead dog's cock about his constituency. I don't know if it's enough to get him out, though. Figures. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ If it were two years ago I'd be really concerned about the SNP's chances, but I've come to realise that they're actually quite crap since then and I don't really care about Scottish independence as much as I used to. Guess that's why I was so pessimistic about the SNP's chances earlier. Niric posted:All talk of the absolute void of hopelessness that is the snap election aside, best of luck with the dissertation. The end part can be mentally brutal, that whole final where's-the-time-gone no-more-procrastination-possible panic thing. Try and vent about it when you can, just relying on distraction wasn't all that helpful in my experience! Thank you so much. I love both Kafka and Kelman, but urghhhh I just don't feel as motivated to write this as I should. Spent so much time procrastinating on it that it's just arghhhhhhh need to get all the references in, need to format it all correctly, need to make sure everything's in place for Thursday. Exactly what you're saying there. Actually, if there's a mod reading this, could I please have a 1 day probation? Really need to get this poo poo done, and I've been distracting myself here all evening.
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Apr 19, 2017 02:15
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What do you scotpol goons think will be the relationship between the new election and scottish independence? More/less likely or won't really make a difference?
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Apr 19, 2017 02:27
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Venomous posted:Thank you so much. I love both Kafka and Kelman, but urghhhh I just don't feel as motivated to write this as I should. Spent so much time procrastinating on it that it's just arghhhhhhh need to get all the references in, need to format it all correctly, need to make sure everything's in place for Thursday. Exactly what you're saying there. That sounds really cool! At Glasgow uni? Seems like it'd be a good fit for Scot lit. If it comes down to a matter of priorities I'd say to get the formatting nailed before minor references; it's much more obvious to a marker that there's an inconsistency than if something is missing. FWIW it also seems like a really interesting pairing too. There was a great quote in, I think, a review of Kieron Smith, Boy, talking about how the whole literary vandalism controversy was absurd because Kelman is essentially an unrepentent modernist, and there's a definite shared sense of individuals being overwhelmed by circumstance. You also get a whole load of inbuilt alliteration for the title, which is always useful ('how late was it? Causation, contiguity and complex chronologies in kafka and Kelman,' that sort of thing). As for the general election, I can't see more than a handful of seats changing hands in Scotland, and even then I doubt the snp will lose more than 2 or 3 tops. I also can't imagine the tories are going to pump too many resources in for relatively little gain, but maybe things are tighter in the north east than I realise hakimashou posted:What do you scotpol goons think will be the relationship between the new election and scottish independence? Don't think it'll make much difference at all on the short term. A thumping tory victory where there only return 1 MP in Scotland would probably help the nats in the longer run though. It'd certain make me keener on the idea if nothing else, and sad reminder that possibly 45%+ of people will happily vote for despicable things without the slightest shred of consci8 Niric fucked around with this message at 08:41 on Apr 19, 2017 |
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Apr 19, 2017 08:32
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Jedit, do you know if it's possible to find copies of planning applications at ACC after their active period if I have the application number?
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Apr 19, 2017 12:43
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Niric posted:That sounds really cool! At Glasgow uni? Seems like it'd be a good fit for Scot lit. If it comes down to a matter of priorities I'd say to get the formatting nailed before minor references; it's much more obvious to a marker that there's an inconsistency than if something is missing. Nah, Stirling. And yeah, all the references are there now, it's just a case of making sure everything's in place and it's formatted correctly and all that, as you say. Niric posted:FWIW it also seems like a really interesting pairing too. There was a great quote in, I think, a review of Kieron Smith, Boy, talking about how the whole literary vandalism controversy was absurd because Kelman is essentially an unrepentent modernist, and there's a definite shared sense of individuals being overwhelmed by circumstance. You also get a whole load of inbuilt alliteration for the title, which is always useful ('how late was it? Causation, contiguity and complex chronologies in kafka and Kelman,' that sort of thing). Aye, that sums up Kelman's protagonists to a T. It's a bit more blurry in Kafka's case because Karl Rossmann is the only protagonist in his novels who's overwhelmed by circumstance, whereas Joseph K. is an elitist liberal rear end in a top hat and K. the Land Surveyor is an opportunistic power-hungry sociopath. Both Kafka and Kelman are connected by authority and its effect on individuals though, and that's where I'm focusing the dissertation. Whether it's any good or not is for me to find out in due course.
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Apr 19, 2017 22:57
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Suspended SNP MPs Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson will only qualify for redundancy payments if they stand for election - and as they're suspended they would have to stand as independents. Do you think they might split the nationalist vote in their seats?
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Apr 20, 2017 12:00
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hakimashou posted:What do you scotpol goons think will be the relationship between the new election and scottish independence? It seems to be an attempt to quosh Brexit dissent at Westminster and take the nationalist cart off the rails by presenting them with an election they can't possibly win; this week was otherwise going to be the start of the sovereignty tussle over Referendum 2, but that will probably be to look forward to in the summer now. Realistically May can expect the SNP to drop a number of seats, since a 50% vote share is crazy, and this will conclusively demonstrate that there is no mandate for a further vote on Scottish independence because how dare you look me in the eye, peasant. She might also get a couple more Scottish Tory MPs to put in her cabinet to show how 'representative' it is. Publically reaffirming the pointlessness of Scottish votes at Westminster, and cementing another five years' rule by a party that gets 3-4% of the ballot in urban constituencies here, is not likely to help the case for the Union in the short, medium, or long term. If we're lucky it will be remembered in the same way as David Cameron's great idea to hold a referendum on Britain's EU membership.
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Apr 20, 2017 13:02
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Pissflaps posted:Suspended SNP MPs Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson will only qualify for redundancy payments if they stand for election - and as they're suspended they would have to stand as independents. McGarry and Thomson are both new MP's with no entrenched backing the constituencies they were just the warm body to wear the SNP rosette last time, if they do stand which I think is unlikely then they'll lose their deposits.
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Apr 20, 2017 13:30
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Pissflaps posted:Suspended SNP MPs Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson will only qualify for redundancy payments if they stand for election - and as they're suspended they would have to stand as independents. Dunno. Talking purely about McGarry, I can't imagine she has made much of a chance to build up a personal brand, she's been in the job 2 years, she won with a 32% swing on the back of a massive national swing to the SNP, and she's obviously still got an ongoing investigation for fraud hanging over her. On top of that, she's just announced she's pregnant after collapsing at PMQs yesterday. I don't think she has the reputation in the constituency, she's not Dennis Canavan winning a seat to the Scottish Parliament after a career spending campaigning for devolution and then having the leadership tell him they weren't going to use him, despite having the support of 97% of his CLP. No idea about Thomson, Edinburgh West was won by a much smaller margin than Glasgow East. But if she runs and gets maybe 1,000 votes it could be enough to see the Liberals pick up the seat.
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Apr 20, 2017 13:59
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I wonder if they both ran but deliberately did not campaign properly to ensure they'd get a payout without harming the nationalist effort there would be some sort of investigation?
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Apr 20, 2017 14:05
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Pissflaps posted:I wonder if they both ran but deliberately did not campaign properly to ensure they'd get a payout without harming the nationalist effort there would be some sort of investigation? Would they be breaking any law?
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Apr 20, 2017 14:08
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Pissflaps posted:I wonder if they both ran but deliberately did not campaign properly to ensure they'd get a payout without harming the nationalist effort there would be some sort of investigation? Seems like obeying the letter, if not the spirit, of the rule would not actually be worth an investigation.
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Apr 20, 2017 14:11
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