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Samurai Sanders posted:Has a US attack on NK been this likely before at some point, or is this new? AFAIR the clinton administration was strongly considering it in the 90s to curtail the nuclear program but went with diplomacy instead. **EDIT Don't even know if it's still a thing but have an image of a portly, poorly photoshopped dog with trumps face anyway 
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Apr 18, 2017 08:41
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About whether the U.S. should ignore/do nothing or do... something (which I don't know what) is that I have no idea what will work. I don't think anybody does. A big problem for the U.S. and the new hard-line "all options are on the table" approach from the Trump administration is that I'm not sure this is at all popular in South Korea, which is having elections next month. Either the liberal-progressive or the centrist will win and neither seems particularly enthused about escalating tensions with the North. And if a more concilatory government takes power there, and negotiates with North Korea without the U.S. being a party, and particularly if it resumes aid, then what does the U.S. do? It can keep making threats, and KJU will just as easily be able to use that as justification to continue its nuclear program, playing the allies against each other. Not that I think putting up a united front of niceness with the North Koreans will work either. But I don't see any way out. The situation is hosed.
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Apr 18, 2017 09:25
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Trump starting poo poo is not remotely popular in South Korea, and people there are way more concerned about him than they are about Kim. But then Trump started his presidency forgetting South Korea even exists so I'm not sure that factors in for him. Apparently Xi Jinping also managed to convince Trump that Korea used to be part of China which is mildly hilarious. Let's learn what we should do in East Asia from China, what could go wrong.
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Apr 18, 2017 12:33
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Man, I can't wait to see how much people panic when Trump sends a B-52 to fly along the Korean border.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:29
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Wikkheiser posted:Edit: Two amphibious assault ships (mini-carriers each carrying a buttload of Marines) are also underway in the Pacific currently. They are larger than a World War 2 carrier.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:34
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fishmech posted:Why, it's Trump himself who's the brainless psycho. The Scooby Gang rips off Trump's mask, only to reveal his identical face underneath.
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Apr 18, 2017 13:44
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CommieGIR posted:They are larger than a World War 2 carrier.
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Apr 18, 2017 14:31
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Wikkheiser posted:About whether the U.S. should ignore/do nothing or do... something (which I don't know what) is that I have no idea what will work. I don't think anybody does. The thing is there is one approach we know will "work" to neutralize North Korea - invading North Korea and removing its entire current ruling elite from power to reunify. The problem with it is the death count is likely to be well over a million people in total if things go "well", as well as trillions of dollars in costs for South Korea and probably the US for subsequent occupation and rebuilding. Everyone's best hope is for Kim Jong Un to die and the military powerbrokers to say "gently caress this we're out" so that North Korea gets turned over without a fight, but that has a likelihood of like 0.0001%
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Apr 18, 2017 14:56
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fishmech posted:Everyone's best hope is for Kim Jong Un to die and the military powerbrokers to say "gently caress this we're out" so that North Korea gets turned over without a fight, but that has a likelihood of like 0.0001% *Trump dressed as Han Solo* "Never tell me the odds!"
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Apr 18, 2017 15:07
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OhFunny posted:I'm seeing reports we're sending two additional aircraft carriers to Korean peninsula. Not sure how reliable they are. It seems that this is likely false. Military sources are denying it, and even the Carl Vinson still hasn't left for Korea. http://www.defensenews.com/articles/us-carrier-still-thousands-of-miles-from-korea quote:WASHINGTON – For more than a week, media reports in the U.S. and around Asia routinely have mentioned the approach of the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group, seemingly implying an attack on North Korea could be imminent. But a week after the U.S. announced the carrier and its escorts would leave Singapore, forego port calls in Australia and instead return to Korean waters, the carrier and its group had yet to head north.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:11
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fishmech posted:The thing is there is one approach we know will "work" to neutralize North Korea - invading North Korea and removing its entire current ruling elite from power to reunify. The problem with it is the death count is likely to be well over a million people in total if things go "well", as well as trillions of dollars in costs for South Korea and probably the US for subsequent occupation and rebuilding.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:11
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This is the official soundtrack of our coming days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nC5TBv3sfU
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Apr 18, 2017 15:20
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Is the NK breaking any treaties with their nuke testing? Not that it matters in practical terms, just curious but not fully up to speed on current international law (lol) in that area.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:22
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Koramei posted:Trump starting poo poo is not remotely popular in South Korea, and people there are way more concerned about him than they are about Kim. But then Trump started his presidency forgetting South Korea even exists so I'm not sure that factors in for him. lol are you serious? I know that he "counseled" Trump about China and East Asia relations (and in 10 minutes Trump flipped from "China is bad and evil" to "China is cool and good") but is he really that much of a dumbass to believe it? the answer will surprise you! yes
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Apr 18, 2017 15:27
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mobby_6kl posted:Is the NK breaking any treaties with their nuke testing? Not that it matters in practical terms, just curious but not fully up to speed on current international law (lol) in that area. Yes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons The tl;dr for the NPT is: quote:The NPT non-nuclear-weapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and the NPT nuclear-weapon states in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals. The NPT nuclear states are the US, USSR (now Russia), China, UK and France. Everyone has signed it except India (actual nukes), Pakistan (also actual nukes), Israel (secret nukes) and South Sudan (new country). NK "withdrew" from it but I believe in the opinion of the UN you can't withdraw from a treaty you've already signed.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:33
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Speaking of NPT, I haven't heard much from Pakistan vs. India lately. I remember that being all the rage for the kickoff of WW3.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:39
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succ posted:Speaking of NPT, I haven't heard much from Pakistan vs. India lately. I remember that being all the rage for the kickoff of WW3. The theory is that once you're actually in the nuclear club you know that you can never go to war with another nuclear power. India and Pakistan both got in and while they were still being dicks to each other for awhile, they knew they couldn't actually go to war. Having now been in it for so long they've dropped all the rhetoric too since they know nothing will come of it and agreed to just sort of angrily stare at each other across the table.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:45
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Well, there was this article a little while ago.India, Long at Odds With Pakistan, May Be Rethinking Nuclear First Strikes posted:India may be reinterpreting its nuclear weapons doctrine, circumstantial evidence suggests, with potentially significant ramifications for the already tenuous nuclear balance in South Asia.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:48
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Grapplejack posted:They've become more hostile since Jong-Un took the reigns, and KJU has been going out of his way to sour North Korea's relationship with China, their ally in the region. China has also been stepping up sanctions in response to poo poo that NK has done, which has worsened relations among that group. The two women who claimed they were tricked into poisoning him as part of a TV show prank are on trial for murder.
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Apr 18, 2017 15:48
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Halloween Jack posted:The two women who claimed they were tricked into poisoning him as part of a TV show prank are on trial for murder. Wait, what? 
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Apr 18, 2017 16:06
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That's the claim they're making in defense of the charges but Malaysian authorities also say that they have CCTV footage of the women rushing to a restroom to wash their hands after the attack. We'll just have to see what comes of the trial. Fake edit: To be more specific, the women claim that they were approached by a group of people who asked them to spray water on the faces of people as part of a prank show. The women also claim that they had sprayed other people without incident. However, the CCTV footage from the airport shows one of the women grabbing Kim Jong Nam from behind and putting a cloth over his face. CCTV footage then shows the women going to a restroom to wash their hands. Since VX was used the women would have most likely died from exposure had they not immediately washed their hands, making Malaysian authorities suspect the women were aware enough of the plot to know the potency of the poison. karlor fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Apr 18, 2017 |
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Apr 18, 2017 16:11
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edit:dp
Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Apr 18, 2017 |
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Apr 18, 2017 16:17
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karlor posted:That's the claim they're making in defense of the charges but Malaysian authorities also say that they have CCTV footage of the women rushing to a restroom to wash their hands after the attack. We'll just have to see what comes of the trial. CBS News posted:Malaysian police have said they questioned the three men and found no grounds to hold them. But Gooi said Thursday that at least one of those three men - identified by police as RI Ji U and known to Aisyah as “James” - was key to her defense.
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Apr 18, 2017 16:23
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Halloween Jack posted:Speaking of souring good relations by doing stupid poo poo, I'm not sure if we discussed the Malaysian reaction to Kim Jong-nam's death. The whole thing was pretty ugly, with the NK ambassador expelled, and NK basically holding Malaysian travelers hostage in exchange for North Korean suspects and KJN's body.
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Apr 18, 2017 16:31
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I hadn't read about the pepper sauce though that does make the hand washing more explainable. Like everything involving North Korea, it's really difficult to figure out what actually happened between the conflicting accounts, shoddy reporting, and deliberate misinformation. Even the CCTV footage I mentioned was rather blurry so we'll have to see what the witnesses (should be plenty since it was at an airport) say at the trial.
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Apr 18, 2017 16:38
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You misunderstand me, I absolutely would expect them to expel diplomats, institute a travel ban on NK nationals, and refuse to release the body to anyone but KJN's family. (Kang, the NK ambassador, made a public and ludicrous demand that they release his body to North Korea without even performing an autopsy.) It's a shame NK was able to hold Malaysian travelers in North Korea hostage to force them to buckle on the latter two issues. I'd propose ending diplomatic relations entirely, but I assume their mutual trade is too valuable to Malaysia. Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Apr 18, 2017 |
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Apr 18, 2017 16:39
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fishmech posted:The thing is there is one approach we know will "work" to neutralize North Korea - invading North Korea and removing its entire current ruling elite from power to reunify. The problem with it is the death count is likely to be well over a million people in total if things go "well", as well as trillions of dollars in costs for South Korea and probably the US for subsequent occupation and rebuilding. yes. these are the only two possibilities. you are very smart and serious
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Apr 18, 2017 16:40
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Halloween Jack posted:You misunderstand me, I absolutely would expect them to expel diplomats, institute a travel ban on NK nationals, and refuse to release the body to anyone but KJN's family. (Kang, the NK ambassador, made a public and ludicrous demand that they release his body to North Korea without even performing an autopsy.) It's a shame NK was able to hold Malaysian travelers in North Korea hostage to force them to buckle on the latter two issues.
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Apr 18, 2017 16:54
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R. Guyovich posted:yes. these are the only two possibilities. you are very smart and serious I realize it's difficult for you to read, but I never said they were the only two possibilities.
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Apr 18, 2017 16:57
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fishmech posted:I realize it's difficult for you to read, but I never said they were the only two possibilities. you were completely wrong about what the "best hope" is
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Apr 18, 2017 17:04
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Ron Darling posted:lol are you serious? I know that he "counseled" Trump about China and East Asia relations (and in 10 minutes Trump flipped from "China is bad and evil" to "China is cool and good") but is he really that much of a dumbass to believe it? quote:He then went into the history of China and Korea. Not North Korea, Korea. And you know, you’re talking about thousands of years …and many wars. And Korea actually used to be a part of China. And after listening for 10 minutes I realized that not — it’s not so easy. I dunno why I was surprised after everything else, but Trump really manages to outdo himself every time.
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Apr 18, 2017 17:04
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Main Paineframe posted:It seems that this is likely false. Military sources are denying it, and even the Carl Vinson still hasn't left for Korea.
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Apr 18, 2017 17:07
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Koramei posted:https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2017...campaign=buffer Hand to God I must have glazed over that because the rest was so drat dumb thank you
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Apr 18, 2017 17:10
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Main Paineframe posted:It seems that this is likely false. Military sources are denying it, and even the Carl Vinson still hasn't left for Korea. Thanks for following up.
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Apr 18, 2017 17:44
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fishmech posted:I realize it's difficult for you to read, but I never said they were the only two possibilities. framing them as the best possible solutions is incredibly stupid no matter how you try to semantically worm your way out of it
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Apr 18, 2017 17:48
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R. Guyovich posted:framing them as the best possible solutions is incredibly stupid no matter how you try to semantically worm your way out of it I never framed them both as the best possible solutions though. Again, please learn to read. I said the invasion scenario is the only solution we have that would work for sure, but would also be absolutely awful in many ways. That's very different from being best (unless you think saying "this is going to kill at least a million people and cost trillions" is a good thing?). Having the current North Korean leadership just give up and get out peacefully is undoubtedly the best way things to go, again unless you're really into pointless divisions or wars for their own sake. Fiction posted:you were completely wrong about what the "best hope" is So you prefer war and pointless division of a people. Ok, you're a clear piece of poo poo then.
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Apr 18, 2017 21:13
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I'm convinced there are no real solutions to this mess, and the solutions offered will create new problems. At the same time I'm generally in favor of a hard-line approach to North Korea, but the perceived threat from the United States plays so highly in the pages of the Rodong Sinmun every day that the Workers Party is clearly using it as a major crutch to legitimize its rule. So one way I might go about it, if I could (which I can't), is to not play into North Korean games about giving them aid, which I think has in the past catastrophically failed to do anything, while I *would* reduce the military pressure -- even extending to withdrawing U.S. troops from the peninsula. North Korea should not be rewarded for bad behavior and its total dishonesty (although I'm aware a U.S. troop withdrawal could be perceived as a reward), but at the same time you don't want to give the regime all this ammunition by blustering and threatening it to no effect. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Apr 18, 2017 |
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Apr 18, 2017 21:23
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fishmech posted:I never framed them both as the best possible solutions though. Again, please learn to read. I said the invasion scenario is the only solution we have that would work for sure, but would also be absolutely awful in many ways. That's very different from being best (unless you think saying "this is going to kill at least a million people and cost trillions" is a good thing?). "the only solution that would work is this one, which implies the other ones would not work, making them worse options. this is different from calling it the best option because i'm going for a gold medal at the pedant olympics" and no, having the dprk government decide to up and leave would in all likelihood lead to the north being a slave state for the imf, an objectively worse solution than a reunification government formed by friendly cooperation between the dprk and rok
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Apr 18, 2017 21:29
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R. Guyovich posted:"the only solution that would work is this one, which implies the other ones would not work, making them worse options. this is different from calling it the best option because i'm going for a gold medal at the pedant olympics" Other ones aren't guaranteed to solve the problem of North Korea still existing as an authoritarian dictatorship that likes to lash out at the South and other nearby countries. Forcibly removing that government guarantees you remove that problem, at the massive cost of high amounts of deaths in war and very high costs in rebuilding. What part do you disagree with? As an example, South Korea and the US just plain threatening North Korea militarily hasn't stopped that, sanctions haven't stopped that, diplomacy in general hasn't stopped that. Uh, how would South Korea taking over the DPRK after the DPRK government leaves lead to the North only being an "IMF slave state" (You could probably say South Korea and future unified Korea will have some problematic ties to the IMF of course)? North Korea literally has no reason to exist outside of perpetuating the Kim Dynasty and Generals power (neither does a South Korea have a reason to still exist), it is obvious that having the North's leadership leave means reunification under a descendant of the ROK government. Certainly no other power is going to be willing to step in and finance any remaining North Korean government for the long term. And I don't consider reunification under a DPRK-descended government to be any sort of viable scenario, because it's become too ossified around supporting the Kims and the generals. And even outside of that, most of the world's countries just don't plain trust them for international dealing, which would be quite harmful to Korea as a whole.
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Apr 18, 2017 21:51
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fishmech posted:Other ones aren't guaranteed to solve the problem of North Korea still existing as an authoritarian dictatorship that likes to lash out at the South and other nearby countries. Forcibly removing that government guarantees you remove that problem, at the massive cost of high amounts of deaths in war and very high costs in rebuilding. Yeah, like how the US removed Saddam Hussein and it worked out great and now everything is just peachy. Loyalty to Jong-Un may not be as high as it was to Jong-Il or Il-Sung, but it's still North Korea, and a lot of people still aren't wild about Americans. Serious question: how would Jong-Un's removal play out in your view? As in, who does it, how, and what happens after?
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Apr 18, 2017 23:04
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