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Forever_Peace posted:I know that swingin' at strawmen is a something of a hobby here, but what I'm getting from that response is that there is clearly still room for me to improve these arguments. I'll keep trying. It was a good post. I believe you are correct that inaction is capitulation. I definitely feel the other side though. While it's clear that movements do create change over time, we haven't asked society to undertake such a monumental shift in a very long time. Likewise, it's a little grating for people to be like, I talked to my state rep and got involved. That's awesome and that's positive change we need. Just this year my state rep introduced a bill to end the department of education and cosponsored a bill to end the EPA. There's a bunch of reasons we're in the mess, and entrenched ideologues are part of that. That's still no excuse for inaction. We're certainly not gonna get anywhere by wallowing in the systemic poo poo, but it's a giant problem and the answers are just really hard. I don't find it surprising that people would find these answers unsatisfying.
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Apr 24, 2017 02:55
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Forever_Peace posted:OK. IIRC you're usually a decently thoughtful poster. This just an off-day or should I avoid bothering you with effortpost responses ITT? That's not an effortpost that's just you copy pasting some lovely article about how we should all be optimistic and actually it's the cynics that are causing all the problems, and that cynics are as bad as denialists, which is a common theme of yours, and the reason you got the response you did is because it's naive and of course someone would assume that a story promoting optimism would itself be tied to incrementalism because all of the language of incrementalism has been wrapped in kumabaya/clear-headed we-can-do-it Saturday-morning-cartoon optimism. And it's bullshit. The reason a lot of folks really well-educated about climate science, like myself, are super into the language of cynicism and bitterness isn't because we want to give up and cede power but because we're pissed off about all the optimistic "not radical" douchebags spent the last thirty years selling us down the river. We didn't make changes and a big part of the reason we didn't make changes is because technological optimism and scientific optimism and the spirit of bipartisan education was constantly trotted out and sold as the grown up approach and that anyone who acted otherwise was another Malthus or Erlich. You're full of poo poo, your optimism is full of poo poo, your positive idealistic approach is full of poo poo and that's one of the major reasons why this happened.
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Apr 24, 2017 06:10
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Widespread movement of meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves Giant Waterfall in Antarctica Worries Scientists https://youtu.be/55hhWq8W9hY 
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Apr 24, 2017 06:15
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Headlines from the future, today. Antarctic Palm Infestation Worries Uber Shareholders
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Apr 24, 2017 06:17
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TildeATH posted:That's not an effortpost that's just you copy pasting some lovely article about how we should all be optimistic and actually it's the cynics that are causing all the problems, and that cynics are as bad as denialists, which is a common theme of yours, and the reason you got the response you did is because it's naive and of course someone would assume that a story promoting optimism would itself be tied to incrementalism because all of the language of incrementalism has been wrapped in kumabaya/clear-headed we-can-do-it Saturday-morning-cartoon optimism. I mean... Yeah I largely agree. Technology isn't going to save us, incrementalism is just another form of delay, and the "it'll all be ok every generation thinks they'll be the last" folks make my blood boil too. You know how much of that poo poo i get when it comes up that I'm holding off on kids because of climate change? At least you had the wherewithal to understand that you are mad at something other than what I believe. I get it. That doesn't make inaction any less of a hypocritical and ethical failure. I support radical climate mitigation because I believe the scientific consensus that it can help. Folks who deny that consensus are denialists. I'm glad you're angry we haven't been doing it already. I'm angry too. But now, the folks standing in the way of action include the cynics. And you just spelled out why we should be angry at them too.
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Apr 24, 2017 12:38
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Forever_Peace posted:I support radical climate mitigation because I believe the scientific consensus that it can help. Folks who deny that consensus are denialists. lol
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Apr 24, 2017 13:00
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This is TED talk level meaninglessness.
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Apr 24, 2017 13:01
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lol you guys go to opendata.epa.gov and look at the popup.
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Apr 24, 2017 13:05
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Forever_Peace posted:lol you guys go to opendata.epa.gov and look at the popup.   I mean, we knew it was going to happen, but here it is.
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Apr 24, 2017 13:23
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Forever_Peace posted:That's certainly fair! This is a useful and informative post, however I have to point out that the authors are both wonks with strong ties to the CIA and/or deep state adjacent think tanks. If you read the book (I have) their bias is all over it. That the Arab Spring isn't included isn't an accident. Nonviolent protest can work but the parameters are so narrow as to be mostly unrealistic unless there's strong influence or support by an outside third party. Most of what your average American knows about protest is basically upside down from actual history when it comes to our own country and closer to fairy tales than truth of any sort for other nations. Read "This Nonviolent Stuff’ll Get You Killed" or "At the Dark End of the Street" or "Hammer and Hoe" or any book really about organizing and protest in the pre-CRM era. People are deeply resistant to changing the status quo, even if the status quo is strangling them by inches. You can't change that with nice peaceful marches and Facebook posts.
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Apr 24, 2017 13:40
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CommieGIR posted:
Twitter is mad about this and have ironically taken the site offline in an effort to check and scrape it.
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Apr 24, 2017 15:11
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Hello. I'd like to join this doomsday circlejerk, but I'm still optimistic that we can contain the coming disaster. What exactly are the reasons to believe we are all hosed? Non-seismic natural disasters and droughts will get worse for sure, but the mitigation of those things has also improved with time and I see no reason to believe that won't continue. What we can't mitigate will cause instability and maybe war, but it's not like war is a new thing. What is the historical link between war and natural disasters/droughts?
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Apr 24, 2017 15:11
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Rap Record Hoarder posted:This is a useful and informative post, however I have to point out that the authors are both wonks with strong ties to the CIA and/or deep state adjacent think tanks. If you read the book (I have) their bias is all over it. That the Arab Spring isn't included isn't an accident. You'll understand if I'm a little skeptical about the implication that this research is part of a CIA conspiracy to encourage complacency, but it sounds like we have the same disappointment about the limitations of the dataset. I'd love to see a more recent or complete source of data on resistance outcomes if you happen to know one! Mercrom posted:Hello. I'd like to join this doomsday circlejerk, but I'm still optimistic that we can contain the coming disaster. What exactly are the reasons to believe we are all hosed? Non-seismic natural disasters and droughts will get worse for sure, but the mitigation of those things has also improved with time and I see no reason to believe that won't continue. What we can't mitigate will cause instability and maybe war, but it's not like war is a new thing. What is the historical link between war and natural disasters/droughts? "Mitigation" is used in a non-colloquial sense when we talk about climate change. Climate mitigation refers to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions - climate adaptation is what we call the attempt to lessen the impact of climate change. If we try to rely on climate adaptation, as you refer to here, we're definitely hosed. The scale of the problem is impossibly too vast, and we'd have to chase a rapidly moving target across decades of sudden and unpredictable upheavals. The choice here is climate mitigation or centuries of relentless catastrophe (where the less we mitigate, the worse the catapstrophe). We've already locked in enough warming for really dire strife - about 1.5 C in most estimates I've seen.
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Apr 24, 2017 15:25
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Mercrom posted:Hello. I'd like to join this doomsday circlejerk, but I'm still optimistic that we can contain the coming disaster. What exactly are the reasons to believe we are all hosed? Non-seismic natural disasters and droughts will get worse for sure, but the mitigation of those things has also improved with time and I see no reason to believe that won't continue. What we can't mitigate will cause instability and maybe war, but it's not like war is a new thing. What is the historical link between war and natural disasters/droughts? Climate change is an stressor. It exacerbates existing issues by gradually worsening environmental conditions to levels that have never before been experienced by modern civilization - and these new conditions are the new norm, rather than transitory. Since we're talking about the Middle East, the Southwest, and eventually most everything branching out from the tropics, not to mention huge swathes of coastal areas that have been settled for millenia, becoming literally unlivable, that's upfront a shitton of issues we can't "mitigate". As for reasons to think this leads to things being hosed, just look at the world's reaction to the Syrian refugee crisis. Now imagine it a hundred-fold while the world is in the midst of a global economic depression as virtually all economic activity faces the adverse effects of climate change. Now look at Pakistan and India. I assure you that war with city-killing nuclear weapons will be a new and exciting thing.
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Apr 24, 2017 15:45
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Mercrom posted:Hello. I'd like to join this doomsday circlejerk, but I'm still optimistic that we can contain the coming disaster. What exactly are the reasons to believe we are all hosed? Non-seismic natural disasters and droughts will get worse for sure, but the mitigation of those things has also improved with time and I see no reason to believe that won't continue. What we can't mitigate will cause instability and maybe war, but it's not like war is a new thing. What is the historical link between war and natural disasters/droughts? Droughts feature prominently in most historical civilization collapses, and given modern evidence it's clear that they're a major driver. A civ ends up focusing all production on trying to keep up the food supply, as the shrinking supply undercuts production and foments unrest. It's not a problem with a humane outcome regardless of whether we choose to respond in force.
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Apr 24, 2017 15:48
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Basically, google "late Bronze Age Collapse".
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Apr 24, 2017 15:56
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Apparently, road salt useage is increasing the salinity of the Great Lakes. Badly. https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/fresh-water-lakes-salinization-road-salt?utm_source=vicefbus
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Apr 24, 2017 16:04
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CommieGIR posted:
hopefully some people are exporting and backing up the data.
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Apr 24, 2017 16:46
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enraged_camel posted:hopefully some people are exporting and backing up the data. Apparently its a false alarm....for now: https://twitter.com/Revkin/status/856522893815144449
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Apr 24, 2017 16:51
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Oh ok, it's just the government shutting down, nbd.
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Apr 24, 2017 17:07
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I'm sitting in a McDonalds eating a McMuffin and a couple booths over, there's a bunch of old farmers who spent 20 minutes talking about how crazy the weather is. Of course they segued into complaining about fake news and now they're complaining about young people getting dumber.
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Apr 24, 2017 17:08
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FuturePastNow posted:I'm sitting in a McDonalds eating a McMuffin and a couple booths over, there's a bunch of old farmers who spent 20 minutes talking about how crazy the weather is. You should have dragged them into the street and executed them
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Apr 24, 2017 17:16
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Nah you start the summary executions at the top and work your way down. Much more efficient to just scare all the proles into line with a few (hundred) dead Congressmen.
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Apr 24, 2017 17:26
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lol if you think congressmen are even 3 tiers down from the top
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Apr 24, 2017 17:57
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Forever_Peace posted:You'll understand if I'm a little skeptical about the implication that this research is part of a CIA conspiracy to encourage complacency, but it sounds like we have the same disappointment about the limitations of the dataset. I'd love to see a more recent or complete source of data on resistance outcomes if you happen to know one! It's not exactly  territory to acknowledge the fact that the US govt, military, and intelligence community have a vested interest in pushing the "peaceful protest equals peaceful regime change (brokered with power players that can be leaned on) equals peaceful transition of power (with zero change to the status quo besides a new coat of paint) is best for everyone" narrative. But yes, disappointment is a good way to phrase my sentiments towards the book. I did come across a pretty interesting review of the book with some complementary data sources a while back, I'll see if I can dig it up.
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Apr 24, 2017 19:48
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Oh hey glad to see we're moving on from paralyzing nihilism to ecoterrorism. Can't wait to see the rise of the Green Mujahideen in earnest.
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Apr 24, 2017 19:51
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Oh hey glad to see we're moving on from paralyzing nihilism to ecoterrorism. Can't wait to see the rise of the Green Mujahideen in earnest. We're all waiting eagerly to how your petition was received. Did it get the climate changers to stop changing the climate? Maybe we could talk to them and show them more pictures of polar bears? Don't worry, I'm sure we'll all figure this out soon. Go science!
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Apr 24, 2017 19:54
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notice no one even tried to posit a scenario where we burn <400GT going forward
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Apr 24, 2017 22:12
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StabbinHobo posted:notice no one even tried to posit a scenario where we burn <400GT going forward Trump or Putin can make it happen!
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Apr 24, 2017 22:22
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Oh hey glad to see we're moving on from paralyzing nihilism to ecoterrorism. Can't wait to see the rise of the Green Mujahideen in earnest. This, but actually.
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Apr 24, 2017 22:36
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Potato Salad posted:This, but actually. People talking about violent solutions are being just as naive as the incrementalists. The state is all-powerful at this point. The weapons are too advanced, and the domestic surveillance is all-encompassing. You'd still be in the planning stages when the FBI busted you and buried you in some supermax facility to rot for the rest of your life. It seems pretty clear that the corporations and the military know exactly how bad things are going to get because of climate change and that's partially why they've poured so much money and equipment into police militarization and spying technology. So please stop with the stupid LF posts.
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Apr 25, 2017 01:55
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Absolutely, any attempt at organized revolt against the money and power which is currently responsible for destroying the foundation of our very civilization is entirely fruitless. There is zero chance of success by any metric, and those involved will end up slaughtered / imprisoned while being resoundingly portrayed in the media as addled terrorists with nebulous agendas. Not even martyrdom for the greater good of humanity is a possibility at this stage. If humans were at all capable of such things, our current crop of petty dictators would already have been taken care of. The alternatives are either giving into the bland milquetoast bacchanalia of excessive consumption which underpins western civilization, or living a life of crippling asceticism; enjoying nothing of your life and shaking your fist in impunity as global conditions steadily erode around you despite all your peaceful protests and painfully low-oil lifestyle. Do whatever you want, the climate train isn't stopping no matter which of those paths you take, and in a century at best your life will have ceased to have held any meaning to any human regardless of your actions today. 
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Apr 25, 2017 02:19
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Rime posted:Absolutely, any attempt at organized revolt against the money and power which is currently responsible for destroying the foundation of our very civilization is entirely fruitless. There is zero chance of success by any metric, and those involved will end up slaughtered / imprisoned while being resoundingly portrayed in the media as addled terrorists with nebulous agendas. Not even martyrdom for the greater good of humanity is a possibility at this stage. If humans were at all capable of such things, our current crop of petty dictators would already have been taken care of. So, basically: "Give up, we're all hosed, everything is useless, nothing matters." That's your advice?
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Apr 25, 2017 03:02
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I like to think future generations if any will at least think back on us with impotent fury. And hey these posts go into the library of Congress so go ahead and razz potential historians from the comfort of your decadent posting stations. gently caress you it's balmy as heck here in the early 21st century.
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Apr 25, 2017 03:05
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Short of you possessing a magic wand and needing prodding to condense carbon from the atmosphere, there's not much advice to give at this juncture. Consider: 2016 was already over +1°Celsius compared to 1891 temperatures. While you're thinking about that, consider also what happened to global temperatures after 1997-98, which was nearly a quarter of a degree Celsius cooler than 2016. If that repeats three times, we are at +2°Celsius over Ye Olde Days - and right now could be one of the three. Hell, it could even overshoot that at the rate we're going. Evil_Greven fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Apr 25, 2017 |
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Apr 25, 2017 03:26
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DrSunshine posted:So, basically: "Give up, we're all hosed, everything is useless, nothing matters." That's your advice? My advice is to do whatever you deem is the best course of action for your life, but to loving do something which has a more lasting impact than getting some facebook likes or a momentary rush of dopemine. Things that make you "feel good"; be it mindless consumption, ineffective pop-protests, or laughable attempts at virtue-signalling through lifestyle memes, only serve to satisfy the present. I have more respect for noted actually-a-loving-crazy-person Caro than I do most of the posters in this thread, in that regard. To use the example of one particularly annoying poster: The march of history doesn't give a poo poo if you decide to never fly in your life, to your detriment, as there's a hundred million people waiting to take your place. You have wasted untold opportunity in your life for nothing. You are nothing, you have impacted nothing. Rime fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Apr 25, 2017 |
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Apr 25, 2017 03:37
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My consumption is ethical, you see, because there are so many other people also consuming the same way.
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Apr 25, 2017 03:42
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Isn't "virtue signaling" a term most commonly used by the alt right?
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Apr 25, 2017 03:48
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shrike82 posted:Isn't "virtue signaling" a term most commonly used by the alt right? Riding a bike to work is a lifestyle meme. A true man takes Super Male Vitality Testosterone Booster and drives a pickup truck.
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Apr 25, 2017 03:52
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shrike82 posted:Isn't "virtue signaling" a term most commonly used by the alt right? Every once in a while complete idiots accidentally stumble into something that is relevant to the zeitgeist.
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Apr 25, 2017 04:04
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