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StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
yea you can treat the carbon cost of car travel and the carbon cost of home electricity & heating as separate things, but really they're one thing: single family detached housing

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Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Can we still have cheese.

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Arglebargle III posted:

Can we still have cheese.

Only if it's sustainable-farmed dick cheese.

large oblate cat
Jul 7, 2009

StabbinHobo posted:

yea you can treat the carbon cost of car travel and the carbon cost of home electricity & heating as separate things, but really they're one thing: single family detached housing

Which are hard to remove or stop. People in my city successfully badgered the city commission to deny the first new mid-rise apartment over parking spots and how it doesn't fit with the "historic" detached homes in the neighborhood. This is despite the thirty plus years of changes to the zoning code to reduce parking requirements and increase density to promote walking, biking, and less carbon use. Meanwhile our county is growing at 3.7 percent and so the wetlands around our city these same folks love is being carpeted with suburbs. Still, pushing for denser cities is still the most impact any individual can make against CC.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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large oblate cat posted:

Which are hard to remove or stop. People in my city successfully badgered the city commission to deny the first new mid-rise apartment over parking spots and how it doesn't fit with the "historic" detached homes in the neighborhood. This is despite the thirty plus years of changes to the zoning code to reduce parking requirements and increase density to promote walking, biking, and less carbon use. Meanwhile our county is growing at 3.7 percent and so the wetlands around our city these same folks love is being carpeted with suburbs. Still, pushing for denser cities is still the most impact any individual can make against CC.

This is a good post.

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011
Hell, rounding up everyone into high density urban habitation blocks would be incredibly beneficial from a resource conservation and energy use perspective, but it would require highly intrusive surveillance and muscular law enforcement in order to prevent crime and resource diversion... and if you have the political capital or overwhelming force to implement the plot of Judge Dredd, there are even more effective climate change mitigation strategies on the table.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Dead Reckoning posted:

Hell, rounding up everyone into high density urban habitation blocks would be incredibly beneficial from a resource conservation and energy use perspective, but it would require highly intrusive surveillance and muscular law enforcement in order to prevent crime and resource diversion... and if you have the political capital or overwhelming force to implement the plot of Judge Dredd, there are even more effective climate change mitigation strategies on the table.

The the US has 64 times the number of police per capita as Singapore (one of the densest countries on the planet) and still has a crime rate four times higher. So, you know, maybe density is not the problem.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

We just need to live under a dictatorship Singapore style.

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011

Forever_Peace posted:

The the US has 64 times the number of police per capita as Singapore (one of the densest countries on the planet) and still has a crime rate four times higher. So, you know, maybe density is not the problem.
Singapore has no protections against electronic surveillance by the government, and criminalizes vandalism (caning), chewing gum, not flushing the toilet, and homosexuality, among other things, and has the death penalty for drug trafficking. This is what I mean by muscular and intrusive law enforcement; head count is not necessarily a measure of police power.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

If we get to save the planet and wear amazing camp outfits where's the downside?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Dead Reckoning posted:

Singapore has no protections against electronic surveillance by the government, and criminalizes vandalism (caning), chewing gum, not flushing the toilet, and homosexuality, among other things, and has the death penalty for drug trafficking. This is what I mean by muscular and intrusive law enforcement; head count is not necessarily a measure of police power.

I would contend that these are not really pertinent to climate change or the crime rate (?). There appeared to be a belief that crime is a problem when density is high. Rape and murder are illegal in both Singapore and the US but are a problem in only one of those places. I am highly skeptical that the rates of violent crime in Singapore are low because of their restrictive laws on sexuality, toilet flushing, and gum chewing. Broken Windows policing doesn't have a great track record. It seems more plausible to me that, say, restrictions on handguns and an unemployment rate of 2% are more likely contributors.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

It's worth noting that the chewing gum ban has a long history.

quote:

In his memoirs,[3] Lee Kuan Yew recounted that as early as 1983, when he was still serving as Prime Minister, a proposal for the ban was brought up to him by the then Minister for National Development. Chewing gum was causing serious maintenance problems in high-rise public housing flats, with vandals disposing of spent gum in mailboxes, inside keyholes and even on lift buttons. Chewing gum left on the ground, stairways and pavements in public areas increased the cost of cleaning and damaged cleaning equipment. Gum stuck on the seats of public buses was also considered a problem. However, Lee thought that a ban would be "too drastic" and did not take action.

In 1987, the S$5 billion local railway system, the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), started running. It was then the largest public project ever implemented in Singapore, and expectations were high. One of the champions of the project, Ong Teng Cheong, who later became the first elected President, declared,"… the MRT will usher in a new phase in Singapore's development and bring about a better life for all of us."

It was then reported that vandals had begun sticking chewing gum on the door sensors of MRT trains, preventing doors from functioning properly and causing disruption to train services. Such incidents were rare but costly and culprits were difficult to apprehend. In January 1992, Goh Chok Tong, who had just taken over as Prime Minister, decided on a ban. The restriction on the distribution of chewing gum was enacted in Singapore Statute Chapter 57, the Control of Manufacture Act, which also governs the restriction of alcohol and tobacco.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Singapore's hosed by climate change both as a country literally on the equator, and as a port city with less than 10% of food produced domestically.
I guess we might see if the benevolent dictatorship model helps there.

Ivan Shitskin
Nov 29, 2002

I wonder how badly North Korea will be hit by long-term climate change. Since it's such a mountainous region, I'm guessing sea level rise won't be as much of a factor as other countries. They're so isolated and pride themselves on sulf-sufficiency, like how they have blacksmiths make nails by hand instead of importing. They're not entirely self-sufficient, but even if they do get hit with another famine, they're already used to it.

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011

Forever_Peace posted:

I would contend that these are not really pertinent to climate change or the crime rate (?). There appeared to be a belief that crime is a problem when density is high. Rape and murder are illegal in both Singapore and the US but are a problem in only one of those places. I am highly skeptical that the rates of violent crime in Singapore are low because of their restrictive laws on sexuality, toilet flushing, and gum chewing. Broken Windows policing doesn't have a great track record. It seems more plausible to me that, say, restrictions on handguns and an unemployment rate of 2% are more likely contributors.
:lol: "Look, Singapore may be a wealthy city-state island with terrifying powerful public security services and a culture of discipline utterly loving alien to most westerners, but the real reason crime is so low is because they have gun control (which only works because they're a city-state island with terrifying powerful public security services) and rely on a guest worker class that they can deport when necessary to keep unemployment low."

Population density is correlated with violent crime rate (though the correlation is inconsistent across different groupings and the effect can be overshadowed by other influences.) Yeah, we could pack everyone cheek-to-jowl into acrologies and they would get along pretty well if they were all given a wealthy standard of living at the same time, (aka the Qatar model) but given that we're talking about doing this as part of a solution to climate change that will have to involve at least some degree of deindustrialization in order to avoid catastrophe, letting everyone be wealthy ain't exactly on the table (unless you want to start talking population control).

Dead Reckoning fucked around with this message at 02:10 on Apr 28, 2017

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Kenzie posted:

I wonder how badly North Korea will be hit by long-term climate change. Since it's such a mountainous region, I'm guessing sea level rise won't be as much of a factor as other countries. They're so isolated and pride themselves on sulf-sufficiency, like how they have blacksmiths make nails by hand instead of importing. They're not entirely self-sufficient, but even if they do get hit with another famine, they're already used to it.

Going down the expected effects list, first there will be refugee crises and the regime will criticize the treatment of them as western hypocrisy, then they'll be largely immune to the global economic depression, and around this point climate change will be undeniable so the DPRK will openly blame the west for allowing it to happen while KJU vows to protect his citizens. Whether they suffer from famine will depend on how the climate shifts and how their agricultural production is doing at the time, but they are very well prepared to handle their population starving.

smoke sumthin bitch
Dec 14, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
former high level official recently blew the whistle on how the government manipulates and rigs climate data to pass liberticidal policy

http://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-jo...ing_now_video_3

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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smoke sumthin bitch posted:

former high level official recently blew the whistle on how the government manipulates and rigs climate data to pass liberticidal policy

[redacted]

lol if you think you can post things like this without the deep state taking notice. This is exactly the sort of thing that project ECHELON and PRISM have been coded to pick up on. Don't be surprised if you start to see some suspicious slowdowns in your internet connection (that's the latency of your browsing traffic being redirected and logged). Good job keeping your head down idiot.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

smoke sumthin bitch posted:

former high level official recently blew the whistle on how the government manipulates and rigs climate data to pass liberticidal policy

http://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-jo...ing_now_video_3

that doesn't look like anything to me. *eyetwitch*

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Is this supposed to be humor or are some people in this thread just broken? Can't tell anymore.

Kindest Forums User
Mar 25, 2008

Let me tell you about my opinion about Bernie Sanders and why Donald Trump is his true successor.

You cannot vote Hillary Clinton because she is worse than Trump.

smoke sumthin bitch posted:

former high level official recently blew the whistle on how the government manipulates and rigs climate data to pass liberticidal policy

http://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-jo...ing_now_video_3

what a weird and canned interview.

I like how his example is the skewing of hurricane data, but never mentions anything about CO2, warming, ice, or anything of actual significance. He's right in some respects though, when I wrote my paper on the impact of climate change on fisheries, it was very difficult to find any solid evidence that climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of hurricanes. This is because tropical storms have moved northward where they can't gain as much energy, but they are now damaging areas that are less prepared for big storms.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Koonin has no qualifications on climate science.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Discendo Vox posted:

Koonin has no qualifications on climate science.

He's also a little...goofy on how he came to his conclusions

quote:

In "Climate Science Is Not Settled," a 2014 essay published in the Wall Street Journal, Koonin wrote that "We are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy," and that "The impact today of human activity [on climate] appears to be comparable to the intrinsic, natural variability of the climate system itself." Koonin criticized the use of results from climate modelling to support the "scientific consensus" (quotes in original) about climate change, noting that, among other problems, "The models differ in their descriptions of the past century's global average surface temperature by more than three times the entire warming recorded during that time." Regarding climate sensitivity, Koonin wrote that "Today's best estimate of the sensitivity (between 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) is no different, and no more certain, than it was 30 years ago. And this is despite an heroic research effort costing billions of dollars."[10]

Ten days after Koonin wrote this, Jeffrey Kluger in Time [11] called Koonin's piece disingenuous if not dishonest. Koonin simply used the old debating trick of setting up a strawman to knock down by misconstruing what climate scientists mean when they say the climate debate is "settled." "...they mean that the fake debate over whether climate change is a vast hoax is finished," writes Kluger. He goes on to state that every point Koonin made is and has for years been widely acknowledged by climate scientists, very few of whom utilize the kind of overzealous language their critics commonly use.

In 2017, Koonin urged interested parties to a drill-down debate with an article, "A ‘Red Team’ Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science." [12] In support of such an approach, he wrote: "The public is largely unaware of the intense debates within climate science. At a recent national laboratory meeting, I observed more than 100 active government and university researchers challenge one another as they strove to separate human impacts from the climate’s natural variability. At issue were not nuances but fundamental aspects of our understanding, such as the apparent—and unexpected—slowing of global sea-level rise over the past two decades."

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



Minge Binge posted:

what a weird and canned interview.

I like how his example is the skewing of hurricane data, but never mentions anything about CO2, warming, ice, or anything of actual significance. He's right in some respects though, when I wrote my paper on the impact of climate change on fisheries, it was very difficult to find any solid evidence that climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of hurricanes. This is because tropical storms have moved northward where they can't gain as much energy, but they are now damaging areas that are less prepared for big storms.

A warming planet does apply some significant natural brakes to hurricane formation in wind shear and decreasing mid-troposphere relative humidity, but it means when they do form there is increased potential for high intensities. These brakes are only super impactful for Atlantic hurricanes. Pacific side is kinda a wash and the Southern hemisphere the brakes are actually just another gas pedal.

Gareth Gobulcoque fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Apr 28, 2017

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators
If Azolla ferns were able to capture enough carbon to cause Antarctic glaciation, then why aren't we just capturing carbon in plants and sinking them to the bottom of the ocean???????

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

If Azolla ferns were able to capture enough carbon to cause Antarctic glaciation, then why aren't we just capturing carbon in plants and sinking them to the bottom of the ocean???????

You have apt avatar text.

There's no political will to do anything, much less weird stuff. You should spend your time on coming up with an app to capitalize on this, like a climate nihilism uber yelp instagram.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

TildeATH posted:

You have apt avatar text.

There's no political will to do anything, much less weird stuff. You should spend your time on coming up with an app to capitalize on this, like a climate nihilism uber yelp instagram.

Just think, in 30 million years we'll have even *more* fossil fuels at the bottom of the ocean to quibble over!

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

If Azolla ferns were able to capture enough carbon to cause Antarctic glaciation, then why aren't we just capturing carbon in plants and sinking them to the bottom of the ocean???????

This thread is so bad that I can't even tell if this is a joke.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

MiddleOne posted:

This thread is so bad that I can't even tell if this is a joke.

you know it'd work, we just need to dump a freshwater lens somewhere out in the atlantic n start growin em. o wait that's what the arctic is doing as it dies lol.

it'd be a fun bit of rollin the dice with albedo potential though.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

you know it'd work, we just need to dump a freshwater lens somewhere out in the atlantic n start growin em. o wait that's what the arctic is doing as it dies lol.

Another sign that these changes are fine and self-regulating.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators
Please donate to my kickstarter to dump a shitload of phosphorous near svalbard to create giant loving azolla blooms n sink em to the underworld

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

MiddleOne posted:

This thread is so bad that I can't even tell if this is a joke.

On the upshot, I didn't know about Azolla until now!

Article: Can the Fern That Cooled the Planet Do It Again?
From: Scientific American
Date: 2014

quote:

...

[...] Imagine the Arctic like the Dead Sea of today: It was a hot lake that had become stratified, suffering from a lack of exchange with outside waters. That meant its waters were loaded with excess nutrients.

Azolla took advantage of the abundant nitrogen and carbon dioxide [...] and flourished. Large populations formed thick mats that covered the body of the lake.

When rainfall increased from the changing climate, flooding provided a thin layer of fresh water for Azolla to creep outward, over parts of the surrounding continents.

Azolla bloomed and died like this in cycles for roughly 1 million years, each time laying down an additional layer of the thick blanket of sediment that was finally found in 2004 by the Arctic Coring Expedition.

The fact that the fern only needs a little over an inch of water under it to grow makes the whole scenario seem just within reason—that is, until you learn how much carbon this carbon dioxide-hungry plant sucked up over the course of those million years.

"Around half of the CO2 available at the time,"
said Jonathan Bujak, who studies dust and fine plant particles as a palynologist. "Levels dropped from between 2500 and 3500 [parts per million] to between 1500 and 1600 ppm."*

While what ended the Azolla age remains unclear, the next 49 million years saw the Earth fall into a cycle that brought even more drastic drops in CO2 levels. [...]

...

Others have taken to experimenting with the edible aspect of Azolla [...]

...

[...] "Grow Azolla, and boom, you now have a valuable fertilizer, food source for livestock and something to eat yourself."

He added that Azolla could also be a superfood of the future, both because of its nutrition and because of how little land it requires.


...


Much more educational than, "bury bamboo in your yard for carbon credits," or something.

Accretionist fucked around with this message at 07:38 on Apr 29, 2017

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Accretionist posted:

On the upshot, I didn't know about Azolla until now!

Article: Can the Fern That Cooled the Planet Do It Again?
From: Scientific American
Date: 2014



Much more educational than, "bury bamboo in your yard for carbon credits," or something. Although maybe there's something to the idea of micro-payment bribes to spur cultural change?

An interesting point of that article,

quote:

Azolla took advantage of the abundant nitrogen and carbon dioxide, two of its favorite foods, and flourished. Large populations formed thick mats that covered the body of the lake. When rainfall increased from the changing climate, flooding provided a thin layer of fresh water for Azolla to creep outward, over parts of the surrounding continents.

We're already seeing increased snow cover at middle-high latitudes and we'll soon find out whether it's significant. If the Arctic truly is changing to an Atlantic humid client we'll know by increased precipitation on the surrounding land masses soon. This does create salinity stratification with some areas become much less saline while others become much more saline, and when that happens usually interesting things occur.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

large oblate cat posted:

pushing for denser cities is still the most impact any individual can make against CC.
just wanna quote & re-emphasize this

Fasdar
Sep 1, 2001

Everybody loves dancing!
Just a hot note here that densification of urban settlements significantly reduces per capita water requirements for reasons that go beyond just not having yards and other poo poo. Like, 10-20% in estimates done in Colorado, where we're going to need a hell of a lot more efficiency gains than that to keep it all held together over the next 30 years.

cheese
Jan 7, 2004

Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

StabbinHobo posted:

two people said this already but just to drive it home, after cars and electricity comes home-heating

but home heating single family homes is absurdly wasteful compared to multi-unit buildings: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11731



I'm looking for a carbon calculator to get a better feel for the numbers, but struggling to find a good one. Specifically, I'm curious about the cost comparisons of, say, living in an apartment in a dense urban area with multiple gas cars used for commuting vs living in a single family home but using an electric car/bicycle for commute. Also, curious as to the overall carbon cost of living in different climates (we basically don't run central air or heat at all at any point in the year thanks to the bay areas mild climate).

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
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Haven't finished reading it yet but this is a really interesting analysis: THE PRICE TAG OF BEING YOUNG: CLIMATE CHANGE AND MILLENNIALS' ECONOMIC FUTURE

quote:

This report quantifies the cost of climate change to millennials and their children, compared to a world without climate change. The climate change costs are compared to other significant economic burdens millennials will face over the course of their lifetime, including student debt, child care, stagnant wages, and the lack of good jobs. The key findings of this analysis include:
-A 21-year-old college graduate in the class of 2015 earning a median income will lose over $126,000 in lifetime income, and $187,000 in wealth.
-Without action on climate change, a 21-year-old earning a median income will lose $100,000 in lifetime income, and $142,000 in wealth. The millennial generation as a whole will lose nearly $8.8 trillion in lifetime income.

For the children of millennials, the losses from climate change will be drastically greater.
-A child born in 2015 with median earnings will lose $357,000 in lifetime income and $581,000 in wealth.
-A child born in 2015 who will graduate college will lose $467,000 in income over her lifetime, and $764,000 in wealth.

We must transition to a 100 percent clean energy economy in order to avoid the devastating economic impacts of climate change detailed in this report. And we must capitalize on the significant economic driver clean energy can be for the U.S. economy. According to a recent study from ICF International4, transition to a clean energy economy will:
-Create up to 2 million new jobs
-Boost our economy by $290 billion
-Increase household disposable income by $650
-Save families $41 billion on energy bills

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
This is why I got smart and have been building my resume for alternative energy systems maintenance, specifically rope work on wind turbines. I should be set for life by this time next year, if things continue to go the way they're going. :ssh:

Also: Nature: Huge Arctic report ups estimates of sea-level rise.
Report prompts warnings that the polar region is 'unravelling'.


Rehash of it from Scientific American.

quote:

The report increases projections for global sea-level rise, which takes into account all sources of melting including the Arctic. Their new minimum estimates are now almost double those issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 for some emissions scenarios. In fact, the latest calculations suggest that the IPCC's middle estimates for sea-level rise should now be considered minimum estimates.

In one scenario, which assumes that carbon emissions rise slightly above the goals set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement — but still see a considerable reduction — sea levels would increase by at least 0.52 metres by 2100, compared with 2006, the Arctic report says. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the minimum increase would be 0.74 metres.

Nothing we don't know already thanks to our friends over on the arctic sea ice forums, nice to see the alarm bells starting to ring in popular media.

Burt Buckle
Sep 1, 2011

Yowza, that's a big increase in a short amount of time.

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StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

cheese posted:

I'm looking for a carbon calculator to get a better feel for the numbers, but struggling to find a good one. Specifically, I'm curious about the cost comparisons of, say, living in an apartment in a dense urban area with multiple gas cars used for commuting vs living in a single family home but using an electric car/bicycle for commute. Also, curious as to the overall carbon cost of living in different climates (we basically don't run central air or heat at all at any point in the year thanks to the bay areas mild climate).

w/r/t heating you could just go by mcf of gas and kwh of electricity.

but careful with the "*MY* burb castle is OK" line of reasoning. no amount of solar powered electric cars and heating can make up for the fact that city sewer, gas, electric, telco, and straight up asphalt paving has to be laid out (and maintained) to make it work. the road-network and land-use aspects of burb sprawl are intrinsic to the distances it takes to give every 2.3 people their own quarter acre. trying to make burb's sustainable is like putting filters on cigarettes and being proud of how much less tar you're inhaling.

StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Apr 30, 2017

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