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OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

icantfindaname posted:

nobody in greece except for a tiny fringe is actually revanchist. armenia on the other hand...

i favor a binational kurdish-armenian state in the armenian highland. call it the republic of ararat



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ararat

Between there done that.

MiddleOne posted:

Elaborate.

The Kurds stood with the Turks and pushed us (Armenians) and the Assyrians into the ditch.

Unlike the Turks, various Kurdish groups recognize Kurdish involvement and have issued apologies.

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icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Randarkman posted:

The reason why Kurds are the most numerous ethnic group in most of Turkish Kurdistan is pretty uncomfortable.

not really. the southern, diyarbakir-centered, 'real kurdistan' never had substantial armenian presence. armenains lived in the eastern oval highland and in the mountains around cilicia and adana (that's where my family was from)

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

I wonder how you would deal with the very large Turkish minority you'd get if you actually did carve out the majority Kurdish part (as far as I can remember 30-40% Turks is pretty common over the whole region with them being in the majority in select areas)

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Randarkman posted:

I wonder how you would deal with the very large Turkish minority you'd get if you actually did carve out the majority Kurdish part (as far as I can remember 30-40% Turks is pretty common over the whole region with them being in the majority in select areas)

Well, ideally you would have multiple ethnic groups living in harmony. Hence why I said bi/multinational Kurdish-Armenian state. Remember it's the Turkish state that has the history of ethnic cleansing, not the SDF

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

icantfindaname posted:

Well, ideally you would have multiple ethnic groups living in harmony. Hence why I said bi/multinational Kurdish-Armenian state instead of full-on nationalist. Remember it's the Turkish state that has the history of ethnic cleansing, not the SDF



Well, I also imagine problems like how Russia is behaving against its neighbors with Russian minorities. Then again I don't think of the SDF taking over Turkish territory as at all a likely scenario to be honest.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
SDF have almost fully captured tabqa after making huge gains yesterday and today. Only the northernmost districts and the dam itself remains



https://twitter.com/melisaraimmo/status/858563925943758848

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!
Good on them. Hope ISIS doesn't blow the dam up out of spite though.

Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007

Woah that's pretty major. ISIS is looking deader by the day, but it matters just as much who the territory is going to. If the sdf gains control of both sides of the river, and keeps its Arab contingent from breaking away, it will go a huge way toward legitimizing Northern Syria as a coherent multiethnic state (within a state).

The Turks are going to keep saber rattling of course, but I don't think they have any intention of invading and occupying a third of Syria either and their strategy of using salafists to bludgeon the kurds has already backfired. Those border clashes were either a warning (perhaps to Arab allies as much as the kurds themselves), or the prelude to something stupid and drastic. The collapse of ISIS seems to have accelerated the move toward an endgame in Syria and we're rapidly approaching a point where northern Syria will be too large and established for the Turks or regime to snuff and too strong for any of the remaining "FSA" factions to challenge.

Pretty soon Syria will face a reckoning, but there are a lot of questions left unanswered. The first is what stupid poo poo will Erdogan, Trump, Putin, hezballah and everyone else playing Powers and Proxies do after ISIS is gone? Even more importantly, what will happen when the SDF and Assad have no left to fight but each other? The TFSA and the others are running out of rope and the never Assad, never SDF position is looking increasingly untenable. Will the kurds start trying to bring them into the fold? Will Assad?

I think the biggest unknown is which side is right about Rojava? Are they true revolutionaries who won't stop until Assad is gone and democratic confederalism reigns in Syria, or are they the collaborators their opponents have always claimed them to be, who will happily sell out the other rebels to Assad in exchange for a KRG-lite in Syria? The idealist in me really hopes they'll stick to their guns, but they've never had much stomach for facing Assad directly and after so long and bloody a war, any kind of peace has to look very tempting.

Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth
They've started sending goons to the front lines.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Svartvit posted:

They've started sending goons to the front lines.



lol holy poo poo that poor Emirati kid. like, THE MOST pampered group of people on the face of the earth. loooooooool.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

How many men have the Saudis and their Gulf allies lost in Yemen? I'm pretty sure I've read numerous times about how notoriously wasteful they've been in how they've waged war and that they've had several tank columns ambushed and destroyed and even lost officers as high as generals.

Less Claypool
Apr 16, 2009

More Primus For Fucks Sake.
Is there any chance the Kurds create a legitimate homeland for themselves (UN Status) or is that impossible because of Turkey?

Godlessdonut
Sep 13, 2005

Al-Saqr posted:

lol holy poo poo that poor Emirati kid. like, THE MOST pampered group of people on the face of the earth. loooooooool.

So basically he really is what everyone keeps accusing you of being?

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

To Battle posted:

Is there any chance the Kurds create a legitimate homeland for themselves (UN Status) or is that impossible because of Turkey?

I very much doubt it. I think the best they can hope for is relatively self governing autonumous regions within Syria and Iraq rather than full blown nationhood

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

El Disco posted:

So basically he really is what everyone keeps accusing you of being?

I dunno I'm a lazy nerd person who likes to play video games and watch anime and I've never had military training so I'm probably worse if were going by that metric, then again he probably is super rich and gets those welfare checks and I dont.

Actually come to think of it, I've started to notice that Qatar and the UAE have actually started to make alot of their young men be in the military from a young age, I met a Qatari college student who graduated high school from what was essentially a military academy type thing, very well disciplined guy and takes care of himself, I suppose it's easy to have a conscripted and loyal population of young people if both those countries have the combined population of a medium sized Saudi town.

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Apr 30, 2017

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

To Battle posted:

Is there any chance the Kurds create a legitimate homeland for themselves (UN Status) or is that impossible because of Turkey?

Basically, Turkey would have to be completely removed from the equation. Granted, I wouldn't put it pass Erdogan to attempt a full invasion of Syrian Kurdistan at this point, everything else has failed and it doesn't seem skirmishing is slowing down YPG offensives against ISIS.

Less Claypool
Apr 16, 2009

More Primus For Fucks Sake.

Bohemian Nights posted:

I very much doubt it. I think the best they can hope for is relatively self governing autonumous regions within Syria and Iraq rather than full blown nationhood

I was assuming once Daesh is defeated they could get some portion of northern Iraq in a manner similar to when Yugoslavia dissolved but I guess I'm being to hopeful because of the region.

Godlessdonut
Sep 13, 2005

To Battle posted:

I guess I'm being to hopeful because of the region.

Yeah, just check the thread title.

Ghost of Babyhead
Jun 28, 2008
Grimey Drawer
Troubling news!

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/857111538867605504

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
https://twitter.com/NRT_English/status/858440758897942528

https://twitter.com/iraqi_day/status/858669653438197760


Coal. I imagine once Mosul is liberated, clearing up Kirkuk and pushing the rest of the IS forces to the syrian border should mostly be a formality with the massive mosul manpower freed up. Three weeks seems a little bit on the optimistic side, though. I guess we'll have to see how rapid the progress is at the start of this next phase of the operation.

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Apr 30, 2017

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

This owns.

Uncle Kitchener
Nov 18, 2009

BALLSBALLSBALLSBALLS
BALLSBALLSBALLSBALLS
BALLSBALLSBALLSBALLS
BALLSBALLSBALLSBALLS

I will risk being called a fascist nazi by saying no, it doesn't own.

Brother Friendship
Jul 12, 2013

https://twitter.com/civilwarmap/status/858642414038331392

lmao turkey has no friends

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Don't forget Northern Cyprus.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

I saw a few tweets about that, and it would be nice if true, but so far I've found no pictures, no official statements or any other verifications of it outside of tweets using other tweets as their source, so I'm a little bit skeptical.

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Uncle Kitchener posted:

I will risk being called a fascist nazi by saying no, it doesn't own.

Protip: Try not to side with the fascist nazis even when you feel like there's the possibility of blowback.

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Bohemian Nights posted:

SDF have almost fully captured tabqa after making huge gains yesterday and today. Only the northernmost districts and the dam itself remains


Turns out there's a reason the SDF is continuing to move so fast in Tabqa, and it's not just the low number of ISIS soldiers:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/68ezar/syrian_democratic_forces_almost_fully_captured/

HevalShizNit, who is apparently living in Rojava posted:

Speaking with my friends on the ground, there appear to be almost no mines. At least nowhere near the scale they were in Manbij. All in all, this seems to be the deciding factor. The mines can slow down and bleed YPG enough to drag it out, but without them, Daesh simply can't stand long against the amount of air support the coalition is able to bring in.
--
Meh, I don't try to pretend why Daesh does or does not mine things. They of course knew there would be a fight for the city, just like they knew there would be one for Shaddadi. In both cases they failed to deploy mines.

We enricled Manbij much faster than Tabqa, yet they had literally thousands of mines in place in the city and surrounding countryside by the time we got there.
Allah wills it I guess?
ISIS couldn't mine Tabqa, thus the SDF doesn't have to spend weeks doing the suckiest job on earth, de-mining all of the buildings and roads.

Given that Shaddadi is now a big anti-ISIS hub in east Syria, this bodes well for Tabqa.

Other news, an update on the Jaish al Islam vs Nusra Tahrir al Sham in East Ghouta:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/68f4mc/army_of_islam_statement_70_of_tahrir_alshams/
Army of Islam statement: "70% of Tahrir al-Sham's forces in Eastern Ghouta have been eliminated. We are determined to terminate this intruder"
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/status/858627552373506050

r Syrian civil war poster Abu3rab translating the tweet posted:


Translation:
A message to our brethren in Faylaq al-Rahman..
Our brethren in Faylaq al-Rahman leaders and soldiers: we are both brothers in Islam and comrades in revolution. What's happening in the Ghouta between us (Jaysh al-Islam) and the al-Nusra Front is the result of as you know the many transgressions of al-Nusra.
We at Jaysh al-Islam have decided to cleanse this group from the Eastern Ghouta and give its followers to the judiciary system (they probably mean sharia courts), as we have also decided to remove this intruding way of thought that has negatively affected our revolution, inflicted upon us many losses and forced it into many conflicts. The conflict between Jaysh al-Islam and Faylaq al-Rahman will remain secondary, as both of us believe in the same core principles, which makes us more similar than different. We hope that you can be of assistance to us in this mission that will help the people of the Ghouta, and the sons of all of Syria. And if you do not want to partake in this mission, then at least we expect for you to be neutral in this conflict (between them and Nusra/HTS). But what we've seen from you is the opposite of neutrality, as you have not only sided with Nusra but you have heavily reinforced their lines, gave them weaponry and pieces all for their losing cause. And after we have eliminated 70% of their forces in mere hours without any losses from our side, we won't accept your current stance on this conflict and nor will we accept your justifications of it.

And they just talk about how they've offered Faylaq a guarentee of peace etc.
Good for them, gently caress Nusra. The absolute last thing East Ghouta needs is an inter-rebel war, and what does Nusra do? Start an inter-rebel war. loving assholes.

Bonus, Kobani after rebuilding:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/681z9f/kobani_tonight_nonstop_enormous_work_efforts_of/
https://twitter.com/jackshahine/status/857797266639392769

quote:

#Kobani tonight
Non-stop enormous work & efforts of Kobani Administration to make the city of rubble to look like this!
Ph: Zekeriya Mistefa

Full resolution image:

And yes, those are streetlights at night. Thanks Tishrin dam!

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Apr 30, 2017

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Bohemian Nights posted:

https://twitter.com/NRT_English/status/858440758897942528

https://twitter.com/iraqi_day/status/858669653438197760


Coal. I imagine once Mosul is liberated, clearing up Kirkuk and pushing the rest of the IS forces to the syrian border should mostly be a formality with the massive mosul manpower freed up. Three weeks seems a little bit on the optimistic side, though. I guess we'll have to see how rapid the progress is at the start of this next phase of the operation.

Not to be rude to the forces fighting to push IS out of Mosul, but I will believe it when I see it.

1stGear
Jan 16, 2010

Here's to the new us.

Saladin Rising posted:

Turns out there's a reason he SDF is continuing to move so fast in Tabqa, and it's not just the low number of ISIS soldiers:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/68ezar/syrian_democratic_forces_almost_fully_captured/

ISIS couldn't mine Tabqa, thus the SDF doesn't have to spend weeks doing the suckiest job on earth, de-mining all of the buildings and roads.

I wonder if this is because the attack on Tabqa was a surprise. Daesh was anticipating the SDF to have to force a Euphrates crossing somewhere and thought they'd have more time to prepare the city's defenses.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Ikasuhito posted:

Not to be rude to the forces fighting to push IS out of Mosul, but I will believe it when I see it.

Eh, less rude and more realistic I think, but if they manage to keep going at the rate they've liberated west mosul so far, three weeks is very optimistic but not entirely impossible. That said, rushing things would be catastrophic for the civillian population, so I at least hope this isn't an informal deadline from above

Also this is pure gambling speculation on my part, but I'll throw out a guesstimate of another 6-7 weeks rather than 3, with the entire thing ending with the old quarters being surrounded and operations within taking far longer while most of the ISF troops move on to other fronts

Chemtrailologist
Jul 8, 2007
Can't wait for Trump to alienate another ally by taking sole credit for the liberation of Mosul.

Less Claypool
Apr 16, 2009

More Primus For Fucks Sake.

Ego-bot posted:

Can't wait for Trump to alienate another ally by taking sole credit for the liberation of Mosul.

If my memory serves me correctly he thought The Kurds and the Quds Force were the same group.

Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

Svartvit posted:

They've started sending goons to the front lines.



I hope the Houthis play by tourney rules.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

To Battle posted:

If my memory serves me correctly he thought The Kurds and the Quds Force were the same group.

Haha yeah he was asked about the Quds force and he said "They are being treated very unfairly!" Legitimate mistake, he though the reporter said Kurds but it was still funny as hell. I think it was fox news so naturally they didn't try to correct him.

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь

Darkman Fanpage posted:

I hope the Houthis play by tourney rules.

Well they are determined to make sure it's very unfun :

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/AlMonitor/status/858742274041102336

Little background on the Ahmadinejad situation. The funny parts are that he was hated just as much by the principlists, if not moreso, as the reformists, which isn't really news. But both ideological blocs have put a mute on coverage of what's going on with him to try and kill him off politically. As I suspected, the Guardian Council did not "disqualify" him. Rather, they determined that his credentials did not qualify him. So he wasn't eligible to even hit the disqualification stage. Subtle distinction, but a distinction nonetheless.

The Guardian Council vetting process is used to entrench the ruling class and prevent any sort of challenge to the government from within government. Typically this favors conservatives, and prevents anyone with an eye on real reform (or a vagina) from qualifying. Because of that, reformists have made quite a bit of noise about how unfair it is (though not too much noise, obviously). But the refusal to qualify Ahmadinejad actually fits right in line with what they want, so rather than continue to argue against the Guardian Council having the power to qualify/disqualify candidates without transparency, they've remained mute on it. Authoritarianism has its perks!

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001



update

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/858709498222878725

Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007


So, um, were there really "Arabs" there either? Nationalism in the Middle East is dumb.

Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

Notice there are also no #arabs as they had not yet left the Arabian Peninsula.

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Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007

Yeah, Arab pan- nationalism is super weird. The United Arab Republic consisted of two countries that aren't in Arabia. The whole Baathist movement and "arabization" was less like true nationalism and more like apartheid settler colonialism.

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