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Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Just realized that there have now been more Survivor seasons in HD than not. Time sure does fly.

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xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Andrea's obsession with icing Zeke might not be good for her long-term game, but I very much am into it

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

You can't really force a move through that your allies won't agree to, but voting Zeke out here is absolutely the right move.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Michaela is reinventing how this game is played by pointing out that it's stupid to regularly cut off pieces of your own alliance once you get a second of breathing orom

Brock Samson
May 13, 2003

I let you know me, see me. I gave you a rare gift, but you didn't want it.

Lol Debbie is so salty.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

Fast Luck posted:

You can't really force a move through that your allies won't agree to, but voting Zeke out here is absolutely the right move.

I dunno man. Like they don't know about the vote steal, but Debbie's already shown a doublevote and surely they know there are a ton of idols floating around. Having a one-person advantage isn't great right now.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

xbilkis posted:

Michaela is reinventing how this game is played by pointing out that it's stupid to regularly cut off pieces of your own alliance once you get a second of breathing orom
One person advantage SUCKS, I agree with you guys fully on this almost every other time, but Zeke isn't a normal ally. He went at them once and is already itching to defect to Brad and gently caress with them again.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

Fast Luck posted:

One person advantage SUCKS, I agree with you guys fully on this almost every other time, but Zeke isn't a normal ally. He went at them once and is already itching to defect to Brad and gently caress with them again.

Yeah, but they only have the advantage right now because of a defection :v:

Shneak
Mar 6, 2015

A sad Professor Plum
sitting on a toilet.

xbilkis posted:

Michaela is reinventing how this game is played by pointing out that it's stupid to regularly cut off pieces of your own alliance once you get a second of breathing orom

Seriously, how did it take this long into the episode for one of these players to point that out.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova

Fast Luck posted:

One person advantage SUCKS, I agree with you guys fully on this almost every other time, but Zeke isn't a normal ally. He went at them once and is already itching to defect to Brad and gently caress with them again.

Yeah, there are circumstances that justify this move - mainly for Andrea, who Zeke and Sarah already discussed cutting next - but Michaela is right that in general you shouldn't risk a flip next round because you're antsy now.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
OH BOY

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

xbilkis posted:

Yeah, there are circumstances that justify this move - mainly for Andrea, who Zeke and Sarah already discussed cutting next - but Michaela is right that in general you shouldn't risk a flip next round because you're antsy now.
Exactly. It's a bad move in general, and a good move in this particular case for a couple of players. That also doesn't mean it's best to push it through by force against their allies' will, even if it is good for them individually.

Super Aggro Crag
Apr 23, 2008




And, of course as always, kill Hitler.


If Tai goes home...

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



This is terrible math.

Super Aggro Crag
Apr 23, 2008




And, of course as always, kill Hitler.


Aww Michaela. :(

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Tai was way too under edited to go home, but those Tai votes still had me freaking haha

Shneak
Mar 6, 2015

A sad Professor Plum
sitting on a toilet.
Somebody wrote 'Tia' :lol:

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
:stare:

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Michaela bursting into tears because the people around her are incapable of acting on mutual interests for more than three days at a time is a good distillation of how frustrating playing must be

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

I dunno if Sarah did the right thing there... unless she wants to remain to be wishy-washy and then pull a BOOM! secret advantage @ 5.

Perhaps cutting Zeke insures no one knows the advantage exists in the first place.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I missed the middle of the show, did anyone get an advantage at the reward sleepover?

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

wow Sarah and Michaela both voted for Zeke against their will. Sierra and Brad and Troy knifed Tai for no purpose. Meanwhile Tai voted Sierra with Zeke

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 02:01 on May 4, 2017

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Voting out the unstable, untrustworthy person who inexplicably turned on her once and couldn't help himself from doing it again...that kind of ingenuity is why Andrea is a Game Changer

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

get hosed zeke

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


UltimoDragonQuest posted:

I missed the middle of the show, did anyone get an advantage at the reward sleepover?

They haven't done this in quite a few seasons, so nope.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

Fast Luck posted:

wow Sarah and Michaela both voted for Zeke against their will. Sierra and Brad and Troy knifed Tai for no purpose. Meanwhile Tai voted Sierra with Zeke

Yeah I'd like to know more about the Sierra/Brad/Troy votes. I want to know what they thought was happening going into that vote, or if it was just a part of Zeke's "I can't tell you now but I will tell you next week"

though now that must seem pretty hilarious if they figured that whoever was going home was the victim of Zeke's Unspeakable Plan, and then the only non-Zeke, non-Tai votes were for Sierra

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I'm guessing the Zeke voters told the larger part of that alliance it was Tai and then told Tai and Zeke that it was Sierra.

Cirie seems to somehow be liked by everyone and way underneath everyone's radar which is amazing. She'd be a great bet to win if it weren't for the fact you can always vote her out one vote before FTC when you realize she has the jury on lock.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

Fast Luck posted:

I'm guessing the Zeke voters told the larger part of that alliance it was Tai and then told Tai and Zeke that it was Sierra.

Cirie seems to somehow be liked by everyone and way underneath everyone's radar which is amazing. She'd be a great bet to win if it weren't for the fact you can always vote her out one vote before FTC when you realize she has the jury on lock.

Cirie is the perfect bet for the person voted out when everybody else is immune due to individual immunity or hidden idols. Sarah will also steal her vote. Michaela will weep silently.

Schlonged Again
Jan 30, 2016

Poque posted:

Yeah I'd like to know more about the Sierra/Brad/Troy votes. I want to know what they thought was happening going into that vote, or if it was just a part of Zeke's "I can't tell you now but I will tell you next week"

though now that must seem pretty hilarious if they figured that whoever was going home was the victim of Zeke's Unspeakable Plan, and then the only non-Zeke, non-Tai votes were for Sierra

I'm guessing Andrea and Cirie told them it would be Tai in order to nullify their votes and keep them safely out of the loop on the real plan (lessening the chance of any shenanigans). They know those two are calling the shots and just went with it.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




UltimoDragonQuest posted:

I missed the middle of the show, did anyone get an advantage at the reward sleepover?

Brad may or may not have eaten 8 pounds of food

Lost Canyoneer
Nov 1, 2009
Andrea FTW.

On the other hand, if Cirie lets her do the dirty work and then pulls all the votes at final TC, I'd be okay with that too.

I felt like Zeke had to go. He was just too invested in "resume building" at the expense of any alliance he was in.

I feel the same way about Sarah, but they need her vote. Also it's interesting that she and Michaela were so opposed to voting out Zeke, but wound up going along with it anyway. It makes me wonder if Sarah's flipping potential is more an illusion of editing than anything real.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
That was a really fun episode because pretty much everyone was playing well.

Going into this episode, I thought the best play for Sarah/Zeke was to continue riding the middle. Often that strategy results in the person in the middle getting taken out (like Will last season), but this time the numbers worked out JUST right-- in theory, if the Andrea/Cirie side voted out, say, Sarah, than Zeke would then join the Brad/Sierra side, and the Andrea/Cirie side would now be a 4-person minority at Final 9. In that sense, Sarah/Zeke had both sides trapped-- they could keep flipping between the sides all the way to the top, and whichever side was their current side could never turn on them without risking losing their majority.

Both Sarah and Zeke seemed to realize this, but unfortunately for them so did Cirie and Andrea. The only way out of the trap was to get Sarah or Zeke to turn on one another-- it's why Cirie and Andrea were so insistent on getting Sarah on board with the plan first even though they didn't need her vote numerically (if Sarah voted Sierra, it still would have been 4-3-3 on Zeke). They were really smart to put that much pressure on Sarah-- she was smart enough to realize it wasn't worth the political capital to save Zeke, but if they had given her an out and let her save Zeke than that side would have been at Sarah/Zeke's mercy for the rest of the game (and, as we saw, they had no intention with cooperating with Andrea in the longterm).

And props to everyone for realizing how risky the entire plan was, and going through with it anyway. Michaela was completely on point that voting out Zeke thins their majority, and if Sarah flips again they are screwed. BUT it's still a necessary move, because if they don't take out Zeke now while Sarah is (barely) on board, they are leaving way too much power in Sarah/Zeke's hands and might not get another chance to pull this off.

Anyway, really impressive stuff tonight on all sides on a season that has been strategically pretty straightforward (a lot of the pre-merge) or semi-nonsensical (a lot of the post-merge).

Parity warning
Nov 1, 2009



3rd Place, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Brock Samson posted:

Lol Debbie is so salty.

she sucks and they need to boot her off the jury and bring in Sandra

Shneak posted:

Somebody wrote 'Tia' :lol:

Pretty sure that was Ti:h:

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

mancalamania posted:

That was a really fun episode because pretty much everyone was playing well.

Everyone was playing proactively. I'm not sure they were playing well.I think Sarah made a really smart move deciding not to stick her neck out for Zeke. In the end his value to her "for a few votes" is less than not making an enemy of Andrea, Cirie, and Aubry. On the flip side telling Cirie (of all people) about your advantage is dumb as hell. As is immediately considering flipping for a third time in a row. Pts for ending on a high note but kind of sloppy all around.

Andrea (and Cirie, but Andrea seemed like the driving force) was right to be worried about Zeke and in a vacuum that's the right time to go after him. But when you have to push THAT hard for alliance members who you don't have built up trust in and know that this move benefits you more than them? That's a lot of blood this early on. Backstabbing an ally 1 vote after allying with them is a bad move in Survivor generally. I get why she did and Zeke struck first... but that may not be how Sarah and Michaela end up feeling about it.

Zeke... oh, Zeke.

I mean, Sierra and Brad seemed to do what they needed to do. Lay low, do what the majority says, burn your old alliances, start laying foundation for new ones. And Michaela was basically right about not picking off your alliance like that, but its more complicated than that when you've got that many people with that many relationships and agendas. Its part of what's fun about all those tribal swaps. Lots and lots of threads keep everyone going in different directions.

In the end I have this feeling that Andrea and Sarah both did themselves unnecessary harm this episode. I'd be very surprised if Andrea can make it to the end. Cirie might have hurt herself too but she feels like she's gonna get the Sandra/Ozzy "lets just vote her out while we can" treatment when the time comes.

I'm not really sure why Andrea and Cirie didn't just target Brad to try and keep their alliance content but weaken Zeke's side numbers. It might not have worked but it seems like a compromise move and then try and get Zeke next round. Maybe they did and it just didn't make air? Andrea seemed pretty dead set, though.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I thought the vote was obvious as soon as they were going into Tribal Council without Sierra talking about her Legacy Advantage. That's not something the editors wouldn't bring up if it was your boot episode.

I don't think it was a bad move for Sarah. I think it was a better move for Andrea/Cirie than at first glance - they've chopped Sarah off at the knees without alerting Sierra of a potential out/scramble to turn the vote onto Cirie - they made her just desperate enough for her to think they threw her a bone.

So what can Sarah do now? There's still potential for her to flip now that it's 5-4. I don't think the game will go so smooth as to be a straight vote after vote til it's top 6 or 7 - there's too many advantages the bottom four have. Which is probably bad news for Cirie, but Andrea will probably end up getting blindsided first unless she wins immunity.

I feel a bit bad for Cirie. She hasn't been on any of the rewards yet. Neither has Michaela, but Cirie seems to be taking it harder.

ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 11:50 on May 4, 2017

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

It's interesting to note that Sarah actually knew for a fact that Zeke's plan was to vote out Andrea in the very next vote. So she knew also that Andrea was completely correct to want to take him out. She probably ultimately did it for Cirie's sake though, since she seems to be so close to Cirie.

Sooner or later the minority is gonna start busting out all these idols and other bullshit and the majority will start taking losses even if they don't flip.

I wonder if Zeke will admit in his exit interviews that his move against Andrea was bad and he lost his mind

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 13:25 on May 4, 2017

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Well, Troyzan's not gonna play his idol for a while since he's maybe the least threatening of the minority and I can't see him playing it on anyone other than himself and maaaybe Brad. Sierra's advantage is useless until F6, so she has to make it that far first. Tai is the only major threat, so you have to get his guard down enough to circumvent his idols.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Fast Luck posted:

It's interesting to note that Sarah actually knew for a fact that Zeke's plan was to vote out Andrea in the very next vote. So she knew also that Andrea was completely correct to want to take him out. She probably ultimately did it for Cirie's sake though, since she seems to be so close to Cirie.

Sooner or later the minority is gonna start busting out all these idols and other bullshit and the majority will start taking losses even if they don't flip.

I wonder if Zeke will admit in his exit interviews that his move against Andrea was bad and he lost his mind

answer's no

quote:

ZEKE SMITH: I want to zoom out a little more because I was not playing the same game that everyone else was playing. After what went down with Varner, I had no shot to win. I knew that. I knew that nobody wanted to take me anywhere near the end and that wasn’t a secret. I was the decoy vote against Hali and I knew it and I knew the reason why. You heard it in that episode that I had a compelling story. People were unwilling to get me deep into the game because people weren’t willing to sit next to me. So I didn’t just make that move against Andrea out of nowhere.

So I went to my closest two allies — Sarah, who I think was truly a close ally, and Debbie, who I incorrectly calculated as a close ally — and said, “Let’s make a move against Cirie and Andrea.” And I think Ozzy is also someone you can incorporate in that group. I said Cirie and Andrea and was directed towards Andrea and said “great,” and went about to make that move happen. And then clearly it imploded. You can say I made a move too early against Andrea, but what I also knew and what was true is that Cirie and Andrea did not have the numbers. I didn’t vote for Ozzy and that group was still able to vote Ozzy out. So it was a bit of a social gaffe, but it didn’t really change my position in the game. I was still going to go when I went. I was just trying to vote with the majority and I correctly identified the majority. They just didn’t decide to include me in the vote.

http://ew.com/tv/2017/05/04/survivor-zeke-smith-game-changers-cbs-transgender/

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Look, I played to the best of my possible ability. I actually read the situation correctly, it's just that somehow a series of events played out where 0 people clued me into their plans

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less laughter
May 7, 2012

Accelerock & Roll

Robnoxious posted:

I dunno if Sarah did the right thing there... unless she wants to remain to be wishy-washy and then pull a BOOM! secret advantage @ 5.

Perhaps cutting Zeke insures no one knows the advantage exists in the first place.

Did you miss when Sarah filled in Cirie about her secret advantage in this episode

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