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I see Kanon's mysterious "Even I..." line from Episode 1 has made a return. Does this mean back in Episode 1 Kanon was planning to two-time Battler and Jessica before backing out? At least he's not trying to keep it in the family, well not his family anyway.
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May 5, 2017 18:12
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resurgam40 posted:So why now, when they presumably would have the same problem as the other times- that being, they can't very well both go with both people. Easy. Battler is incompetent. Even as the game master. More seriously, if Kanon and Shannon really do share a body, just how many people would have to know about this? To be on-board enough to lie to the reader. "Knox's 9th: It is permitted for observers to let their own conclusions and interpretations be heard." Which to me means that if a scene is told from a certain person's perspective, while that scene need not be what really happened, there has to be a reason for that person to see it that way. Time to comb through every scene where a third-party sees them together, I guess. (Incidentally, I tried to use the bit where Beatrice guaranteed the identities of all the unidentified corpses in episode 1 to fight against, but of the six bodies in the shed Shannon's was the only one said to have enough face to actually identify so she wouldn't even be covered there.)
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May 5, 2017 18:15
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I definitely agree that the evidence does suggest that Shannon=Kanon, and it's definitely possible within the red text, but...ProfessorProf posted:The number of humans on this island has returned to 18... 'I' glanced around at the humans in the parlor. This is seen by Erika with the eyes of the detective. I'm not sure how to get around that.
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May 5, 2017 18:31
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Another question, if they're the same person (or share a body, whatever), will we get red decrementing the total number of people or will we get more "unknown person X"? Probably the Decalogue says no unknown person X allowed, if Battler is going to follow it. And the "I" there is Battler. We don't know what Erika saw, and Shannon was behind her.
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May 5, 2017 18:34
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Cyouni posted:I definitely agree that the evidence does suggest that Shannon=Kanon, and it's definitely possible within the red text, but... No, that scene was from Battler's perspective, and he very explicitly wasn't the detective at any point, and engaged in a whole spiel last episode about how he could have done it. For this reason, can his vision, and what he says to the audience, really be trusted? After all, he also thought he saw Kinzo, a dead person. I don't think we've ever really seen things from Erika's perspective, actually.
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May 5, 2017 18:37
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Cyouni posted:I definitely agree that the evidence does suggest that Shannon=Kanon, and it's definitely possible within the red text, but... e:f,b in regards to Battler's viewpoint. Some part of me started to think "this new Beatrice is actually the past version of the old Beatrice, who ended up becoming the antagonist of games 1-4" due to how much she wanted to learn about Beatrice and become the Beato that Battler wants to see again, but it seems a bit... more convoluted. Also, part of me thinks that Ange found the secret mansion somehow and is learning about what happened through that. Because this is getting convoluted, meeting neo-Beato and Virgillia like this.
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May 5, 2017 18:41
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Qrr posted:Another question, if they're the same person (or share a body, whatever), will we get red decrementing the total number of people or will we get more "unknown person X"? Probably the Decalogue says no unknown person X allowed, if Battler is going to follow it. Upon further reading, it seems the "I" there refers to Player-Battler not Piece-Battler, for whatever that's worth.
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May 5, 2017 18:42
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ZiegeDame posted:Upon further reading, it seems the "I" there refers to Player-Battler not Piece-Battler, for whatever that's worth. Oof, that's even worse. Player Battler has seen tons of witches and stakes and bunnies and demons and magic. He's not a reliable witness at all.
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May 5, 2017 18:54
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Certainly, we can accept that as an answer. There have been other times both have been in the same room with Erika, however, and I think it'd be a lot harder to disguise that. From this one a few updates later, for example. ProfessorProf posted:
If we establish that Kanon=Shannon, then per Knox's 8th, clues must have been given to Erika about that. ZiegeDame posted:(Incidentally, I tried to use the bit where Beatrice guaranteed the identities of all the unidentified corpses in episode 1 to fight against, but of the six bodies in the shed Shannon's was the only one said to have enough face to actually identify so she wouldn't even be covered there.) Krauss's was also identifiable, but yes. The only one who really 'identified' Shannon's body was Hideyoshi (and perhaps Eva/Nanjo), and it's already been established that they were also lying about the bodies in episode 5. Cyouni fucked around with this message at 19:07 on May 5, 2017 |
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May 5, 2017 19:00
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"Probably. It's natural that you'd guess there were six victims after seeing the crime scene in the guesthouse. There were only four corpses, so it'd make you wonder who the other two were."
"...Is that how it is...? That drat witch..."
"So is this really... Beatrice-sama's doing...?"
"...Was Krauss nii-san in the habit of locking his door? We just came in without unlocking it."
"...Yes, Krauss-sama did have a habit of locking up."
"A, at this house, Madam has ordered that all non-public areas be locked."
"How many keys can unlock Uncle Krauss's room?"
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Knoxs 8th doesn't really work like that in the story. It says clues arent valid unless presented, but it doesn't require that the detective notice or present them. They're "presented" when we see them in the story. Also remember that Erika is really bad at being a detective, and that a cornerstone of her previous case was that the bodies were hidden by someone who was dead the whole time. And that we've previously seen her ability to ignore evidence that doesn't help her case. I mean, her process of pretending Kinzo was in Natsuhis room required that she "prove" that Kinzo wasn't anywhere else while intentionally not trying to prove anything about Natsuhis room directly. Because she is terrible.
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May 5, 2017 19:11
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Dlanor disagrees with you.ProfessorProf posted:
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May 5, 2017 19:15
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"Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED. If the crime actually was carried out in the cousins' room, clues must have been SHOWN. Because clues were not given to the detective, Lady Erika, who was on the watch for any abnormalities inside that room until morning, such a crime is IMPOSSIBLE...!!"
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Cyouni posted:Dlanor disagrees with you. Clues must have been shown. Not clues must have been shown to the detective. A more standard Knoxs 8th would require the detective notice, but this one only requires that readers see the clues.
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May 5, 2017 19:23
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Here's another one for Knox's 8th. In Episode 3, if Kanon=Shannon, the following must have happened: The adults (read: liar Nanjo) finish examining Shannon's body, and move on to the second floor. Shannon now must get up, completely change clothes, hair, etc. and sneak off to the Chapel, which has been unlocked this whole time ( can't actually find mention of a magic circle drawn on the chapel door at least), lock the chapel from the inside and play dead again. All this in the space of time it takes the adults to find the other four bodies. The most suspicious part of this to me is the change of clothes. If someone had changed their clothes in a hurry like this, per Knox's 8th there would be some evidence. Can such evidence be found?
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May 5, 2017 19:23
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ZiegeDame posted:Here's another one for Knox's 8th. In Episode 3, if Kanon=Shannon, the following must have happened: The adults (read: liar Nanjo) finish examining Shannon's body, and move on to the second floor. Shannon now must get up, completely change clothes, hair, etc. and sneak off to the Chapel, which has been unlocked this whole time ( can't actually find mention of a magic circle drawn on the chapel door at least), lock the chapel from the inside and play dead again. All this in the space of time it takes the adults to find the other four bodies. Did anyone ever actually go back to the room where Shannons body was found? We can't really fault lack of evidence if no one ever looked for it. We've had a lot of people leaving bodies alone both because they don't like the reminder and because they don't want to disturb the crime scene. That gives a lot of leeway.
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May 5, 2017 19:42
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Qrr posted:Did anyone ever actually go back to the room where Shannons body was found? We can't really fault lack of evidence if no one ever looked for it. While true in real life it is unfair within the rules of the story, especially as 'this is a story following these rules' has been explicitly stated for us. I'm not a huge fan of the S=K theory, but I can't admit to having any better ideas for why only one of them can win, maybe Battler's just a poo poo author? 
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May 5, 2017 19:53
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Graylien posted:While true in real life it is unfair within the rules of the story, especially as 'this is a story following these rules' has been explicitly stated for us. I'm pretty sure that was explicitly not explicitly stated.
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May 5, 2017 20:02
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Qrr posted:Did anyone ever actually go back to the room where Shannons body was found? We can't really fault lack of evidence if no one ever looked for it.  "Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED!!"Graylien posted:I'm not a huge fan of the S=K theory, but I can't admit to having any better ideas for why only one of them can win, maybe Battler's just a poo poo author? Well if for some reason Kanon winning involves George being murdered along with 5-12 other people e: let's think this through like serial-killer aka endless witch. 5 people can survive the ritual and reach the golden land (here meaning living without needs atop a pile of money) if Kinzo counts as a sacrifice, 4 if not. Battler has a reserved seat, if we add Kanon and Jessica, that means 1-2 spots left, but probably Maria gets one too, so there isn't room for both George and Shannon. ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 20:21 on May 5, 2017 |
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May 5, 2017 20:12
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ZiegeDame posted:The most suspicious part of this to me is the change of clothes. If someone had changed their clothes in a hurry like this, per Knox's 8th there would be some evidence. Can such evidence be found? Just out of curiousity, how long do you think it takes to change clothes? I might want to challenge you to a race
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May 5, 2017 20:20
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tiistai posted:Just out of curiousity, how long do you think it takes to change clothes? I might want to challenge you to a race Normal clothes, or these getups?   Kanon's shirt doesn't even have any buttons how the hell is one person supposed to put this on?
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May 5, 2017 20:27
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Is that a serious question or have you never worn a long-sleeved shirt
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May 5, 2017 20:39
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I guess an elastic neckband just seems weirdly informal considering everything else about the outfit. But for a serious answer, I just meant that if someone had changed clothes in a hurry you might expect a discarded sock or something to show up as a clue. e: new thought: is it possible Battler is deliberately setting this game up to make it look like Shannon and Kanon are the same person, in the same way Lambda set up the previous one to make Natsushi look guilty? His goal here is not stump Erkia/Bernkastel and throw them out of the game, so baiting them into weird theories might be his plan. Also it's the sort of plan likely to backfire horribly. ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 20:56 on May 5, 2017 |
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May 5, 2017 20:43
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ZiegeDame posted:Here's another one for Knox's 8th. In Episode 3, if Kanon=Shannon, the following must have happened: The adults (read: liar Nanjo) finish examining Shannon's body, and move on to the second floor. Shannon now must get up, completely change clothes, hair, etc. and sneak off to the Chapel, which has been unlocked this whole time ( can't actually find mention of a magic circle drawn on the chapel door at least), lock the chapel from the inside and play dead again. All this in the space of time it takes the adults to find the other four bodies. The other note is it'd be suspicious for a different reason - Jessica and George would presumably know about this. Even if not George, Jessica at the very least. She's lived in the same house for three years, after all. Hell, Krauss or Natsuhi would have to know. They'd certainly find two different Kanon/Shannon bodies suspicious.
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May 5, 2017 20:58
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ZiegeDame posted:
This is actually the opposite of that. There are a number of clues about them being the same person. Evidence of changing clothes or lack of missing bodies could have contradicted that, but instead didn't. We don't get any clues at all about a clothing change (aside from the general clues that they're the same person), but we also don't get any clues that there wasn't a clothing change.
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May 5, 2017 21:41
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This looks like it's calling out S=K but I think ya'll are skipping something real important here.ProfessorProf posted:
In other words, the epitaph was already solved before anythin on the island actually happened. Someone else already is the successor, someone else controls the gold. Sayo has solved the epitaph?
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May 5, 2017 21:50
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"...To become the Golden Witch, one must solve the epitaph of the gold. And this trial cannot be skipped, not even by Beatrice herself..."
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Hmm. That would definitely clarify the whole "gold is meaningless to this child" conversation between Battler and Virgilia.
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May 5, 2017 21:59
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Qrr posted:This is actually the opposite of that. There are a number of clues about them being the same person. Evidence of changing clothes or lack of missing bodies could have contradicted that, but instead didn't. We don't get any clues at all about a clothing change (aside from the general clues that they're the same person), but we also don't get any clues that there wasn't a clothing change. The hell are you even trying to say here? You can't Devil's Proof Knox's 8th. That's like, the whole point of Knox's 8th, to stop people from arguing "Well you can't prove that it didn't happen". curiousCat posted:In other words, the epitaph was already solved before anythin on the island actually happened. Someone else already is the successor, someone else controls the gold. Sayo has solved the epitaph? Yes, absolutely 100%. Not necessarily Sayo, but whoever the culprit is solved the epitaph but for whatever reason did not step forward to claim their prize, at least not publicly. If the solver is a servant this course of action makes total sense, as it's not like the family is just gonna accept this unrelated commoner taking all their inheritance. I've been sure of this much for a while now.
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May 5, 2017 22:06
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Qrr posted:Clues must have been shown. Not clues must have been shown to the detective. A more standard Knoxs 8th would require the detective notice, but this one only requires that readers see the clues. Read the red again. It specifically calls out clues shown to Erika in that quoted section. curiousCat posted:This looks like it's calling out S=K but I think ya'll are skipping something real important here. Yeah, that's been my assumption since Virgilia brought up "the gold already belongs to this child, so she doesn't need the epitaph solved". Whoever it was solved the epitaph and claimed the gold, possibly also inheriting Kinzo's name as a result.
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May 5, 2017 22:12
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That should be obvious from previous stories, but if Sayo (I guess I'll stick with Sayo for now?) is Beatrice, she's also solved the epitaph and been to the golden land. Where else would she get that money? Maybe that's how she gets the other servants on her side, too. She's technically the head of the family, since Kinzo is dead. That seems like the sort of thing that would matter to Genji, for instance.Qrr posted:Another question, if they're the same person (or share a body, whatever), will we get red decrementing the total number of people or will we get more "unknown person X"? Probably the Decalogue says no unknown person X allowed, if Battler is going to follow it. The number has always been "no more than". We have not, that I can recall, seen a red text that says "the number is exactly X". So no modification needs to be made; there are no more than that number, but there might be fewer.
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May 5, 2017 22:33
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ZiegeDame posted:The hell are you even trying to say here? You can't Devil's Proof Knox's 8th. That's like, the whole point of Knox's 8th, to stop people from arguing "Well you can't prove that it didn't happen". We know for a fact that not everything that happened has been shown. Because duh. So if we have evidence that they are the same person and we posit that they changed clothes, you can't point at that and say "well why wasn't there evidence that they changed clothes". Our evidence that they changed clothes is that they were in one set of clothing in one scene and a different in the next. You may as well argue that someone wasn't the murderer because there's no evidence that they had a stake before the murders. It's not relevant. Cyouni posted:Read the red again. It specifically calls out clues shown to Erika in that quoted section. It calls out clues shown to Erika in that specific scenario. That's not in the Knoxs 8th that this game uses generally.
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May 5, 2017 22:42
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idonotlikepeas posted:That should be obvious from previous stories, but if Sayo (I guess I'll stick with Sayo for now?) is Beatrice, she's also solved the epitaph and been to the golden land. Where else would she get that money? Maybe that's how she gets the other servants on her side, too. She's technically the head of the family, since Kinzo is dead. That seems like the sort of thing that would matter to Genji, for instance. The only "other servants" in this case would be Genji and Kumasawa -- two people we already are assuming are close to Beatrice. So I absolutely agree with you, the servants minus Gohda have always been with Beatrice.
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May 5, 2017 22:48
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curiousCat posted:The only "other servants" in this case would be Genji and Kumasawa -- two people we already are assuming are close to Beatrice. So I absolutely agree with you, the servants minus Gohda have always been with Beatrice. Nanjo too is needed. But he is not a servant.
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May 5, 2017 23:19
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Why is everyone neglecting poor abused Gohda?
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May 5, 2017 23:26
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Qrr posted:We know for a fact that not everything that happened has been shown. Because duh. So if we have evidence that they are the same person and we posit that they changed clothes, you can't point at that and say "well why wasn't there evidence that they changed clothes". Our evidence that they changed clothes is that they were in one set of clothing in one scene and a different in the next. That's circular reasoning, and therefore faulty. Qrr posted:It calls out clues shown to Erika in that specific scenario. That's not in the Knoxs 8th that this game uses generally. Cite your proof that the game can lie to the detective-piece by showing things that don't exist. I can prove that's not allowed to happen. ProfessorProf posted:Allowing falsehoods to be contained within their observations is a right granted to everyone... except for just one person. And that person is 'the detective'...!! Oh, and I proclaim that Furudo Erika is the detective.
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May 5, 2017 23:26
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"Because of the right granted by Knox's 9th, people are allowed to mistake a sheet in the wind for anything else and tell about it. However! Mistaking it for Grandfather in particular is not permitted in this game due to the red truth!!"
"...So, once you claimed to have seen Kinzo, it was no longer misrecognition... but INTENTIONAL. In other words, this proves that the observer wasn't objective... is what you are SAYING...?"
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curiousCat posted:The only "other servants" in this case would be Genji and Kumasawa -- two people we already are assuming are close to Beatrice. So I absolutely agree with you, the servants minus Gohda have always been with Beatrice. Yeah, there are some other servants, but they're not on the island and probably aren't part of this. I was counting Nanjo, too, although he's not technically a servant. He's also not a murderer, per the red text, but I suspect he is frequently a conspirator. oath2order posted:Why is everyone neglecting poor abused Gohda? Gohda is just too pure to be part of a murder conspiracy. ZiegeDame posted:Not necessarily Sayo, but whoever the culprit is solved the epitaph but for whatever reason did not step forward to claim their prize, at least not publicly. If the solver is a servant this course of action makes total sense, as it's not like the family is just gonna accept this unrelated commoner taking all their inheritance. I've been sure of this much for a while now. OK. There's a theory that I've been hanging onto for a long while, and maybe now is a good time to get into it. What you seem to be implying here is that in the canonical world, the world of the actual events that really happened in Rokkenjima, not in any of these bottle stories, Sayo might not be the culprit, but the culprit has found the golden land. I think Sayo definitely found the golden land... but almost certainly isn't the culprit. Sayo planned the murders. The first two bottles are evidence of that; she is the only person that could reasonably have written those before the murders, including Beatrice as they do, and that's the only time they could have been written. Someone was jotting down fake stories during the actual days of the murders? There's just no time to write this amount of text, and everyone's going to be too busy even if they could otherwise have done it. She, as Maria's friend (we have copious if indirect evidence of this), is the most likely person to sign Maria's name to those stories. If she found the gold, she had the means to pay off the families of her future victims. If she's also the child that got pitched off a cliff, that provides a hell of a motive as well as a reason to be a little screwed up in the head. I think it's therefore established, at least provisionally, that she planned to kill everyone. But there is one piece of evidence that has been bothering me about this. Specifically, this: Eva did not reveal the identity of the killer, and refused to discuss the events on Rokkenjima. She refused to do this even though suspicion would naturally fall on her. Why? For what purpose? If the murderer was a servant that was actually an abandoned child from years ago or whatever, it might be embarrassing to the family, but much less so than the living head being considered a murderer. She would have told the truth in that case. Instead, she said nothing. If she didn't know who the killer was, she would have said that, instead. She didn't do that either. For dramatic reasons, I do not believe that Eva was the killer. Eliminating her as a suspect, there are only two plausible scenarios I can construct that make this evidence make sense. The first is if a member of her own family is responsible, since she wouldn't want to tarnish their memories. I have seen nothing that suggests to me that Hideyoshi can or would plan murders without getting her involvement, and frankly I don't think he'd stand much of a chance of succeeding without her help. George has the aptitude, but despite my best efforts I have been unable to get him on any murders, or figure out a way he can fit into that role. He may actually be the slightly weird but genuinely well-intentioned person he appears to be. That brings us to the other possibility. If Eva isn't trying to protect her own memories of her dead family... what if she's trying to protect Ange's? What would it do to Ange to know that her family was involved? How could you lay that kind of burden on a tiny child? Eva's silence makes perfect sense in that case. Ange is incapable of recognizing that Eva loved her, in her own screwed up way... without understanding love, she can't see the reason. So I'll put down some money on this roulette square. The real killers are Rudolf and Kyrie. I don't know how exactly Sayo's plot went wrong, or if it just collided with theirs, but I'm sure of it. This is what this means: Imagine having that kid hate you every day, but never telling her the secret that would destroy her. That's love, right?
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May 5, 2017 23:29
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An interesting hypothesis, though I personally like where it's going. I must ask: you argue that Rudolf and Kyrie are the killers in the third episode, then?
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May 5, 2017 23:40
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Cyouni posted:You're arguing that Shannon and Kanon are the same person because there are two bodies in two different sets of clothing, therefore they must have changed clothes quickly between the bodies being discovered. No. I'm arguing that they're the same person based on other evidence (including the conversation in this update). The two bodies were brought up as a possible counter, and I'm arguing that they aren't a strong counter. quote:Cite your proof that the game can lie to the detective-piece by showing things that don't exist. I can prove that's not allowed to happen. Where did I argue that the detective was shown things that didn't exist?
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May 5, 2017 23:41
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oath2order posted:
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May 5, 2017 23:45
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"Yes... Eva oba-san definitely said that."
"If you wish for your family to return, it's necessary to carry pain and sorrow strong enough to lift that wish to the heavens... Until that day, you mustn't show your smile."
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Cyouni posted:An interesting hypothesis, though I personally like where it's going. I must ask: you argue that Rudolf and Kyrie are the killers in the third episode, then? No, I think it's Eva in that one. I mean, we (probably) have different murderers in different games, so they can't all be the canonical murderers. At least half of the reason I like this is what it means about Ange's Road Trip. She's on a journey to discover a truth that will wreck her life if she actually finds it! It's so good. Edit: Yes, I was thinking of that scene too, although I didn't dig it up to quote it. loving imaginary Bern.
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May 5, 2017 23:46
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I was already in a  mood but now... oh man.
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May 6, 2017 00:20
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I wouldn't be surprised if it's Rudolf or Kyrie. They haven't got an chapter of their own yet.
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May 6, 2017 00:30
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