UKMT May 2017: Weak and Wobbly vs. Old and Knobbly

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT May 2017: Weak and Wobbly vs. Old and Knobbly

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Bobby Digital: Sep 4, 2009

NoneMoreNegative posted:

Coming in 2018

Batnan Vs Supergran: Twilight of Justice

# ? May 7, 2017 04:22

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# ? May 17, 2024 07:02

serious gaylord: Sep 16, 2007; what.

Can't believe you all missed Batnan: The Dark Knitting

# ? May 7, 2017 06:30

learnincurve: May 15, 2014; Smoosh

Regarde Aduck posted:

I think, and therefore might be terribly wrong, that most remainers have given up on the issue and just aren't voting. Which is a pity because they're playing into the self-fulfilling prophecy that remainers don't exist and the country is united.

Anyone who's even glanced at the guardian or independent/i100 since we voted leave is painfully aware that remainers exist. I especially don't enjoy the i100s unshakable belief that everyone outside of London is racist , and that is the only possible explanation for THE HORROR OH WOE, WOE IS ME.

# ? May 7, 2017 08:12

Ratjaculation: Aug 3, 2007

more like remoaners lmao

# ? May 7, 2017 08:41

Ratjaculation: Aug 3, 2007

I just DON'T get why 48% of the voters didn't immediately shut up and 100% back up Breakfast?!?! SAD!

# ? May 7, 2017 08:47

learnincurve: May 15, 2014; Smoosh

There is being constructive in defeat and then there is pointing at everyone who disagrees with you and screaming RACIST. It annoys people who are not, and not many people who are actually racists are self aware enough to recognise that they are so it puts their backs up as well.

# ? May 7, 2017 09:10

Zalakwe: Jun 4, 2007; Likes Cake, Hates Hamsters

learnincurve posted:

There is being constructive in defeat and then there is pointing at everyone who disagrees with you and screaming RACIST. It annoys people who are not, and not many people who are actually racists are self aware enough to recognise that they are so it puts their backs up as well.

Who is doing this though? The vast majority of people still arguing about this tend to focus on the economics.

# ? May 7, 2017 09:15

Zephro: Nov 23, 2000; I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Regarde Aduck posted:

I think, and therefore might be terribly wrong, that most remainers have given up on the issue and just aren't voting. Which is a pity because they're playing into the self-fulfilling prophecy that remainers don't exist and the country is united.

Yeah. I think a fair number of people have accepted the argument that if we've voted as a nation to ritually disembowel ourselves the best thing to do is not, you know, think again, but to start sharpening the sword and popping down to Paperchase to buy some nice paper for the death haiku

# ? May 7, 2017 09:21

Seaside Loafer: Feb 7, 2012; Waiting for a train, I needed a shit. You won't bee-lieve what happened next

learnincurve posted:

There is being constructive in defeat and then there is pointing at everyone who disagrees with you and screaming RACIST. It annoys people who are not, and not many people who are actually racists are self aware enough to recognise that they are so it puts their backs up as well.

You cant deny the campaign was basically all built on racism.

# ? May 7, 2017 09:32

Weasling Weasel: Oct 20, 2010

Juliet Whisky posted:

Two media responses to the same announcement, threatening tax rises for people on over �80,000 per year:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39829723

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4481058/Labour-party-hints-massive-tax-hike-middle-classes.html

Pre-tax income for 25% of us <�15,500pa

Pre-tax income for 50% of us <�22,400pa

Pre-tax income for 75% of us <�34,500pa

Pre-tax income for 94% of us <�65,400pa

After this income shoots up exponentially, which helps the median for UK wages get to about �27k/a.

I mean, it's too bad for those on �80,000+ a year and all but my heartstrings aren't tugged even if they're labelled as 'middle class'. Incidentally 98% of earners have an annual income <�78k/a after tax.

Source: HMRC 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/595165/NS_Table_3_1a_1415.xlsx

I find that interesting, as there are so many contradictory sources and quotes of what the average uk income is. It also doesn't include non tax-payers, which suggests that for the total UK population, it's an even smaller percentage that would be hit by a lower Additional Rate Tax thresohld.

�27k is quoted as the media a lot as well due to the HMRC ASHE report from 2014. Can someone who understands statistics better explain what the difference between the two reports are? It's stated as being the median as well, which completed contradicts the median being �22,400 as in the above report.

Weasling Weasel fucked around with this message at 09:53 on May 7, 2017

# ? May 7, 2017 09:48

Ratjaculation: Aug 3, 2007

learnincurve posted:

There is being constructive in defeat and then there is pointing at everyone who disagrees with you and screaming RACIST. It annoys people who are not, and not many people who are actually racists are self aware enough to recognise that they are so it puts their backs up as well.

Counterpoint

Remoaner: leaving the single market really isn't a good idea with our trade deficit, I worry the gov will use parts of the health service to sweeten any deals
Breakfasteer: IM NOT RACIST

# ? May 7, 2017 09:56

Party Boat: Nov 1, 2007; where did that other dog come from

who is he

Not all brexiteers are racist, I'm willing to accept that some are merely thick.

# ? May 7, 2017 09:58

Ratjaculation: Aug 3, 2007

I mean the only leavers I've seen called out on racism were actually being racist. Yet they all seem to have suffered such name calling so as to be the better person in a debate with a remoaner

# ? May 7, 2017 09:59

dispatch_async: Nov 28, 2014; Imagine having the time to have played through 20 generations of one family in The Sims 2. Imagine making the original two members of that family Neil Buchanan and Cat Deeley. Imagine complaining to Maxis there was no technological progression. You've successfully imagined my life

Zalakwe posted:

Who is doing this though? The vast majority of people still arguing about this tend to focus on the economics.

Well, there is this kind of attitude:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/831071337850470400

Although I don't think he's calling all Leave voters racist scroungers, just all people who live outside London�

# ? May 7, 2017 10:06

Zalakwe: Jun 4, 2007; Likes Cake, Hates Hamsters

dispatch_async posted:

Well, there is this kind of attitude:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/831071337850470400

Although I don't think he's calling all Leave voters racist scroungers, just all people who live outside London�

It does exist but one twat doesn't make a twitter.

As is suggested above I think a lot of the "DON'T CALL US RACIST" pleading is born from insecurity. It's pretty clear you don't have to be racist to be a Brexiter, you just voted the same way as all the racists. If you don't think of yourself as racist this may cause problems for your ego.

Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 10:15 on May 7, 2017

# ? May 7, 2017 10:11

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

does someone have those word clouds which had economy as the main word by a mile for remainers and immigration for leavers?

# ? May 7, 2017 10:16

feedmegin: Jul 30, 2008

Zalakwe posted:

It does exist but one twat doesn't make a twitter.

As is suggested above I think a lot of the "DON'T CALL US RACIST" pleading is born from insecurity. It's pretty clear you don't have to be racist to be a Brexiter, you just voted the same way as all the racists. If you don't think of yourself as racist this may cause problems for your ego.

Pretty much this. Not all Leave voters are racist, but pretty much all racists are Leave voters, and if you vote with the racists because you think you'll have to compete with fewer Polish plumbers or whatever, that's still kiiiinda in the racist camp as far as I'm concerned.

And, like it or not, London voted Remain, the rest of England and Wales (especially the bits without any immigrants) largely went Leave. That is a real thing.

feedmegin fucked around with this message at 10:22 on May 7, 2017

# ? May 7, 2017 10:19

Party Boat: Nov 1, 2007; where did that other dog come from

who is he

Anyone who is a Brexit supporter should be absolutely livid with the way the government is conducting itself at the moment. David Allen Green had a good piece in the FT lately arguing that current government policy seems to be to sabotage Brexit without appearing to do so:

"How the UK government is making a successful Brexit difficult posted:

Here is a thought experiment: what would it take, in practice, for a UK government to self-sabotage a �successful� Brexit? And how would that differ from current policy?

We all know the government�s position is that �Brexit means Brexit� and that Britain will make �a success of it�. We also know that, now Article 50 has been triggered, the UK will not be a member of the EU in two years� time (unless something happens which cannot currently be foreseen). Brexit will therefore take place, whether it is to be a success or not.

There are perhaps at least three ways in which a �successful� Brexit could be sabotaged. But the curious thing about each one is that it seems to describe what the current prime minister and her government are doing in practice. This is odd as presumably the intention of the government is that Brexit will be successful. But there are reasons for those who want Brexit to be a success to be concerned.

Wasting time

The first way that a successful Brexit would be sabotaged is by wasting time.

Time is crucial because of the way Article 50 is structured. The two-year time limit is both strict and consequential. The exit date can only be changed as part of the exit agreement or by the unanimous agreement of all 28 EU member states.

But what is the government doing in the critical first few months of the two years? It has decided not to get on with the job but to have a general election instead. This means it will be June before any proper negotiations can start.

This general election is likely to benefit the governing Conservative party in domestic political terms, but in respect of the exit period, the effect can only be negative. There is not time to waste, but the government is wasting it anyway. The supposed justification that the election is needed to strengthen the government�s negotiating position does not wash: the European Council�s guidelines are now in place and the size of any UK government majority makes no difference to what the EU�s negotiating team can accept or not accept.

This is not the first time the government has wasted time with Brexit. In the months just after the referendum result, when the EU was swiftly getting its act together (see my posts here, here and here), the government decided to have the distraction and disruption of a major departmental reorganisation, creating two new departments from scratch. And when the High Court held (correctly) that an act of parliament was needed for the Article 50 notification, the government again wasted time and resources appealing to the Supreme Court (where it lost), rather than passing a bill straight away.

Lack of any grasp of issues and process

The second way the outcome can be sabotaged is by the government having no firm idea what to achieve or how to achieve it.

On the EU side, the negotiating position has been clear since the hours after the referendum and the process has been mastered (again, see here, here and here). The EU appears to have been ready to deal with Brexit since last year. The negotiation �guidelines� were adopted quickly at the last European Council meeting because of the detailed preparatory work. The European Commission�s negotiating team TF50 is well briefed and well resourced.

And Britain? On the basis of publicly available information, the UK appears not to have any developed view on what it wants to achieve or how it is going to get there. The few published statements are not impressive: a flimsy white paper and a rhetorical notification letter. The country can only complain about the EU�s insistence on the phased approach and the priority to be given to an �orderly� Brexit. A week before the UK even issued its notification letter, the EU�s chief negotiator was setting out the methods and procedure that he expected to be followed.

The impression is that the UK is at a loss over how to go about the negotiation process. Of course, it may well be that Britain knows what exactly it is doing but has just chosen not to disclose this yet. But one must feel gullible nodding-along with such a reassuring thought. The leaks of what was said at the now-infamous Downing Street dinner will not provide comfort to those wanting to feel the government is on top of the job as well as (supposedly) getting on with the job.

Needlessly closing down options

The third way means of sabotage is by closing down options prematurely.

The referendum provided a mandate for the UK to leave the EU but not for any particular model of Brexit. There are many ways in which a country can be not a member of the EU but still have a close relationship: ask Norway, or Turkey or Switzerland. And there are many ways in which the referendum mandate could be achieved. The only outcome that the vote result prescribes is that the UK not be a member of the EU.

But in her October speech to the Conservative party conference (and in her Lancaster House speech in January), Theresa May, the prime minister, closed down any option that meant the UK would continue to be part of the single market and the customs union, or accepting any jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union.

The UK therefore combined not knowing what it positively wanted from Brexit with ruling out various potentially viable ways in which a successful exit could be achieved. There is, of course, an argument that these possibilities were never real options: but the country ruling them out so completely at an early stage means we will never find out.

Would a committed Remainer government be able do more than the current government to sabotage a successful Brexit?

There are no doubt further ways in which a successful Brexit can be sabotaged by a UK government: being needlessly confrontational and accusatory, failing to carry all the home nations and stoking unrealistic expectations in the media, for example.

And with these ways also, you can see a case for saying the government is sabotaging a successful Brexit. It is almost as if it is doing what it can not to make Brexit a success, despite claiming otherwise. This is a strange conclusion but that is where the evidence seems to point.

Many in favour of Brexit will stoutly defend the government�s handling of the matter. But beyond the partisanship that means your preferred leaders can never be wrong, there is little concrete for a supporter of the government to show that it is guiding the UK to a successful exit. For example: there is little or nothing to show that time has been (or will be) used well, there is little or nothing to show the government has a grasp of the issues or of the process, and the government has loudly closed down various options.

Brexit can be a success, and the UK can be successful outside the EU (I have no objection in principle to Brexit). But neither eventuality is bound to happen, just as neither is bound not to happen. A great deal will come down to how the government approaches the negotiations.

As it stands, however, it is hard to see how even committed Remainers could do more than the current government in sabotaging the UK�s prospect of a successful Brexit.

It's a pretty good summary of how hosed we probably are. Every action, from the referendum itself to calling a general election to the government's approach to Brexit, is about strengthening the conservative party and looking good to the tabloids ahead of "making Brexit a success". I honestly can't be angry with them either because it's the only rational response when you know (as everyone in the political sphere does apart from a few true believers) that Juncker is right: Brexit cannot be a success. It's a thunderingly stupid step backwards and will harm this country for decades.

e: I'm aware that Green says Brexit could be a success - I disagree. While it's technically possible, the number of social and political changes required for it not to result in more austerity and misery heaped on the poorest in this country makes it highly improbable.

Party Boat fucked around with this message at 10:24 on May 7, 2017

# ? May 7, 2017 10:19

Killed By Death: Jun 29, 2013

Jose posted:

does someone have those word clouds which had economy as the main word by a mile for remainers and immigration for leavers?

# ? May 7, 2017 10:25

Looke: Aug 2, 2013

Ratjaculation posted:

I just DON'T get why 48% of the voters didn't immediately shut up and 100% back up Breakfast?!?! SAD!

# ? May 7, 2017 10:37

Communist Bear: Oct 7, 2008

quote:

It's a pretty good summary of how hosed we probably are. Every action, from the referendum itself to calling a general election to the government's approach to Brexit, is about strengthening the conservative party and looking good to the tabloids ahead of "making Brexit a success". I honestly can't be angry with them either because it's the only rational response when you know (as everyone in the political sphere does apart from a few true believers) that Juncker is right: Brexit cannot be a success. It's a thunderingly stupid step backwards and will harm this country for decades.

I get the feeling this is what happens when you don't have an efficient spin doctor in your party. You get trapped into thinking that you need to woo the tabloids as much as possible. As such the tabloids start making Government policy more than the Government itself. Of course, it's all going to collapse like a ton of bricks on their head when Brexit causes the economic depression everyone is warning about. I'll be curious how the tabloids spin how rationing is a good thing.

# ? May 7, 2017 10:50

Darth Walrus: Feb 13, 2012

WMain00 posted:

I get the feeling this is what happens when you don't have an efficient spin doctor in your party. You get trapped into thinking that you need to woo the tabloids as much as possible. As such the tabloids start making Government policy more than the Government itself. Of course, it's all going to collapse like a ton of bricks on their head when Brexit causes the economic depression everyone is warning about. I'll be curious how the tabloids spin how rationing is a good thing.

Blame it on the Europeans while the May government uses emergency powers to blunt the democratic backlash, presumably.

# ? May 7, 2017 10:55

Party Boat: Nov 1, 2007; where did that other dog come from

who is he

Darth Walrus posted:

Blame it on the Europeans while the May government uses emergency powers to blunt the democratic backlash, presumably.

For a likely preview of how it's going to go, look at May's battle to deport Abu Qatada to Jordan for a trial based on evidence obtained through torture. She wasted a huge amount of time and public money fighting unwinnable court battles for the purposes of political posturing, then finally did what she should have done in the first place (worked out a deal with Jordan) and claimed it was a huge victory over the ECHR when it was what they told her to do in the first place.

# ? May 7, 2017 11:06

HJB: Feb 16, 2011; I can't get enough of are Dan

Party Boat posted:

Not all brexiteers are racist, I'm willing to accept that some are merely thick.

Not all remoaners are classist, I'm willing to accept that some are merely arrogant.

# ? May 7, 2017 11:12

Looke: Aug 2, 2013

brexiteer spotted

# ? May 7, 2017 11:18

Zephro: Nov 23, 2000; I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Party Boat posted:

Anyone who is a Brexit supporter should be absolutely livid with the way the government is conducting itself at the moment. David Allen Green had a good piece in the FT lately arguing that current government policy seems to be to sabotage Brexit without appearing to do so:

I read that piece. It doesn't explicitly state the government is playing 14-dimensional chess and secretly sabotaging the talks in the hope of having to Remain, but it skates amusingly close

# ? May 7, 2017 11:21

Party Boat: Nov 1, 2007; where did that other dog come from

who is he

HJB posted:

Not all remoaners are classist, I'm willing to accept that some are merely arrogant.

Would you say you've had enough of experts?

# ? May 7, 2017 11:21

Zephro: Nov 23, 2000; I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Darth Walrus posted:

Blame it on the Europeans while the May government uses emergency powers to blunt the democratic backlash, presumably.

Yeah. You can already see this happening with that paranoid speech about how the evil Eurocrats are trying to fiddle the Great Patriotic Election*. Anything bad will be used as evidence that the EU is evil and we were right to leave.

*Presumably by putting Labour in power so that Brexit can, err, happen anyway? Even by the standards of delusional bollocks it makes no sense

# ? May 7, 2017 11:21

Party Boat: Nov 1, 2007; where did that other dog come from

who is he

Zephro posted:

I read that piece. It doesn't explicitly state the government is playing 14-dimensional chess and secretly sabotaging the talks in the hope of having to Remain, but it skates amusingly close

I prefer the interpretation that the government knows Brexit is going to be too difficult to make successful, so isn't even trying and is looking to shore up their voter base instead.

# ? May 7, 2017 11:25

Zephro: Nov 23, 2000; I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Party Boat posted:

I prefer the interpretation that the government knows Brexit is going to be too difficult to make successful, so isn't even trying and is looking to shore up their voter base instead.

Yeah, this is probably right. Maybe they can get a good deal on more German water cannons before the tariffs kick in.

# ? May 7, 2017 11:27

Darth Walrus: Feb 13, 2012

Zephro posted:

Yeah. You can already see this happening with that paranoid speech about how the evil Eurocrats are trying to fiddle the Great Patriotic Election*. Anything bad will be used as evidence that the EU is evil and we were right to leave.

*Presumably by putting Labour in power so that Brexit can, err, happen anyway? Even by the standards of delusional bollocks it makes no sense

It makes a lot more sense if you buy the consistent media line that Corbyn is a treacherous sellout who will roll over for the first foreign power that threatens Britain's interests. In other words, Labour is lying about being in favour of Brexit, and their efforts to criticise the government's approach to it are only further evidence of this.

# ? May 7, 2017 11:28

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

it's impressive how Corbyn has managed to simultaneously lie about being in favour of Brexit and lie about being against Brexit

# ? May 7, 2017 11:32

Looke: Aug 2, 2013

Schr�dinger Brexit

Jeremy Hunt

# ? May 7, 2017 11:36

Darth Walrus: Feb 13, 2012

Angepain posted:

it's impressive how Corbyn has managed to simultaneously lie about being in favour of Brexit and lie about being against Brexit

TBF, it's generally different people saying those two things.

# ? May 7, 2017 12:03

Bobstar: Feb 8, 2006; KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

No tax rises for people on less than �80,000, pledges John McDonnell

I like this presentation. It's a better phrasing than "we'll tax people above X", because that invites "politics of envy" and "above X?? That could be me one day!", while "we'll protect people below X" might help with the realisation that that includes the vast majority of the country, including "me, now".

Of course you could argue that taxes should be higher lower down, but it's a start.

# ? May 7, 2017 12:09

TACD: Oct 27, 2000

learnincurve posted:

...not many people who are actually racists are self aware enough to recognise that they are so it puts their backs up as well.

I think that's largely the point.

# ? May 7, 2017 12:09

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/861167745559392256

# ? May 7, 2017 12:12

Taear: Nov 26, 2004; Ask me about the shitty opinions I have about Paradox games!

I think a lot of the problem with politics today is that people can't evaluate sources very well. I see this at work absolutely loads - we have a thing called Chatter which is sort of like a social network. On it you can ask questions if you've come across something difficult. Tonnes of people stopped using it because they'd get a few different answers and didn't know which ones to trust.
Even if two answers were from random new starters and the third one was from the person who actually designed the box and that last person was signposted really heavily as such.

You saw it loads during the EU Referendum when people were screaming for "just non-biased information about what's going on" when it was easily available but they didn't know how to decide what was real or not.

When 90% of people barely ever pay attention to politics anyway it's too easy to lie or present things in a way that makes it sound bad. Taxes for people over 80k? Well that might be loads of people and it might be me! Even though if you look into it, there's basically no chance of it ever being you.

It's a really horrible situation and I blame that for our 1000 year tory reich over any specific politician.

# ? May 7, 2017 12:23

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

LemonDrizzle posted:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/861167745559392256

I know someone who's trying to make a documentary about this and he's said that while it's definitely likely that there are student nurses and part timers in this position, despite quite a lot of effort they haven't actually found a single full time employed nurse needing to use a food bank.

# ? May 7, 2017 12:38

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# ? May 17, 2024 07:02

Zephro: Nov 23, 2000; I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

LemonDrizzle posted:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/861167745559392256

I'm sure there are many complex reasons for this, none of them to do with lack of money

# ? May 7, 2017 12:41

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT May 2017: Weak and Wobbly vs. Old and Knobbly

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