|
Vox Nihili posted:Defaulting on unsustainable public debt isn't suicide. Indeed, Greece has already technically defaulted several times, taking small haircuts and accepting bailouts. I think they should have defaulted and aggressively restructured a much, much bigger chunk of their debt, as their current debt-to-GDP ratio is barely sustainable and basically mandates perpetual austerity. greece would be ejected from the common market with no trade deals, absolutely no ability to finance debt, a worthless new currency, and an entire continent that would gladly watch them crumble. they'd be wiped out essentially, which is the reason why merkel was able to call the bluff without fear. the end result is they still get austerity, except 10x worse. the fastest way to end the crisis is for the european creditors to forgive a lot of debt. that is the sensible course that would save money overall, but it's so politically toxic that it seems unlikely. defaulting, for greece (and the world), would be disastrous Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 22:37 on May 8, 2017 |
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 8, 2024 21:40 |
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:greece would be ejected from the common market with no trade deals, absolutely no ability to finance debt, a worthless new currency, and an entire continent that would gladly watch them crumble. they'd be wiped out entirely, which is the reason why merkel was able to call the bluff without fear. the end result is they still get austerity, except 10x worse. Most of this isn't really true. Yes, at first they would not be considered creditworthy, but nations have survived defaults. Look at Argentina, which discharged most of its debt in the period from 2002-2010:  Here is Argentina's GDP growth during that period:  Here's Greece's GDP under extreme austerity measures:  Meanwhile, they're treading water on the debt, which is absolutely unsustainable and will require future restructurings to massage as much money out of the country as possible:  Greece is a sovereign nation. Whether they would actually be kicked out of the EU is not clear; nor is the currency question clear. What is clear is that they are hosed for the foreseeable future under the German plan.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:43
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Most of this isn't really true. Yes, at first they would not be considered creditworthy, but nations have survived defaults. Look at Argentina, which discharged most of its debt in the period from 2002-2010: I think they'd be hosed for quite a while either way, they dug themselves into a deep hole.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:45
|
|
|
To be clear, no realistic default would be a 100% default, it would be a massive restructuring of the debt. A small haircut isn't enough, they need to get under 100% debt-to-GDP.
Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 22:50 on May 8, 2017 |
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:45
|
|
|
all sane solutions to the Greek crisis are some variation on the debt being written off entirely, but that decision isn't in the greek government's hands. the eurozone is dominated by weird sadomonetarists who have limited greek options to one or another form of self-harm, and they get condemned for whichever one they choose. purestrain neoliberal choice fetishism. give people two bad options, then 1. tell them they're free, because they had a choice, and 2. blame them for what happens, because it was their choice.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:46
|
|
|
hakimashou posted:I think they'd be hosed for quite a while either way, they dug themselves into a deep hole. Right but one path offers at least an eventual solution, whereas eternal austerity offers an incredibly lovely status quo for the foreseeable future. In a period as short of a decade the nation could potentially recover from a major default.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:47
|
|
|
Peel posted:all sane solutions to the Greek crisis are some variation on the debt being written off entirely why would anyone ever agree to that? What's your definition of sanity?
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:50
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:why would anyone ever agree to that? What's your definition of sanity? Thanks for pointing out why the neoliberal hegemony is insane.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:51
|
|
|
Man SA really needs a :neoliberals: emoticon One of those crazy eyes ones waving things around I think. A red flag in one hand, but what in the other?
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:55
|
|
|
The :neoliberals: smiley should be the All-Seeing Eye of the Illuminati superimposed on the center of the EU flag, and it's crying.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 22:59
|
|
|
Pener Kropoopkin posted:Thanks for pointing out why the neoliberal hegemony is insane. this hyper-rationality that Marxists ascribe to themselves, the ability to peer into the true nature of things and see beyond the hallucinations of the hated liberals, has not been much evidenced in practice. you'd think it would give them some practical advantage to be able to see the world as it really is and not be afflicted by these delusions, but...nope, apparently not.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:00
|
|
|
If T-May wins i'm thinking about buying one of her magnificent visage for the dnd UK thread. hakimashou has issued a correction as of 23:49 on May 8, 2017 |
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:01
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:this hyper-rationality that Marxists ascribe to themselves, the ability to peer into the true nature of things and see beyond the hallucinations of the hated liberals, has not been much evidenced in practice. you'd think it would give them some practical advantage to be able to see the world as it really is and not be afflicted by these delusions, but...nope, apparently not. nice, where is this from?
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:05
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:this hyper-rationality that Marxists ascribe to themselves, the ability to peer into the true nature of things and see beyond the hallucinations of the hated liberals, has not been much evidenced in practice. you'd think it would give them some practical advantage to be able to see the world as it really is and not be afflicted by these delusions, but...nope, apparently not. That of course won't happen, because the EU represents the interests of creditors, and will place the value of their monetary concerns over the welfare of greek citizens.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:07
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Right but one path offers at least an eventual solution, whereas eternal austerity offers an incredibly lovely status quo for the foreseeable future. In a period as short of a decade the nation could potentially recover from a major default. actually hyperinflation and stuff that comes with it can potentially knock a country out for a decade or more. a decade is a pretty reasonable definition for foreseeable future in my opinion
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:15
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:this hyper-rationality that Marxists ascribe to themselves, the ability to peer into the true nature of things and see beyond the hallucinations of the hated liberals, has not been much evidenced in practice. you'd think it would give them some practical advantage to be able to see the world as it really is and not be afflicted by these delusions, but...nope, apparently not. this post makes people angry itt because it's true
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:16
|
|
|
rudatron posted:Wow you're a disingenuous poo poo. Just because creditors wouldn't agree to it, doesn't mean its not the only sane solution. People matter more than money, and eternal debt bondage is a piece of poo poo, i.e. not sane. Greece can't really pay it back, ergo it has to be discharged. I'm not being disingenuous, you're just being thick. Peel said the only sane solutions involve writing the debt off entirely. a 50% haircut wouldn't be a sane, reasonable solution to you, if it was enough to allow Greece to start growing again?
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:19
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:why would anyone ever agree to that? What's your definition of sanity? because it can be shouldered by the eurozone as a whole with barely a flinch because it is (as a whole) a sovereign currency at no risk of default or economic collapse. private sector creditors can be protected from the consequences of their irresponsible lending by printing them some euros, and a reviving greek economy can proceed to produce goods and services for everyone in the trading bloc. on the other hand insisting greece pay it back drip by drip causes immense suffering in an eu member state while failing to actually resolve the debt problem because the economy shattered by austerity can't pay back loans effectively. i suppose as an alternative you could just refinance it at a cheap-as-free interest rate and wait for it to inflate away this is 'austerity was poo poo' 101, have you been living under a rock for the last decade
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:19
|
|
|
Bulgogi Hoagie posted:actually hyperinflation and stuff that comes with it can potentially knock a country out for a decade or more. a decade is a pretty reasonable definition for foreseeable future in my opinion Or there could be an explosion of economic growth once the enormous burden of servicing unsustainable debt is finally removed. What's certain is that the present debt load and accompanying austerity will continue to be a crippling anchor on growth and will instantly morph into another crisis with the next downturn.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:25
|
|
|
its cool that despite being based on false data and even then being proven to be incredibly bad austerity is still being pushed
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:26
|
|
|
okay, I see what you're objecting to. i guess you could do a 50% haircut if you wanted but why, besides political pressure from moralists? once you're out of the moralist frame of mind that insists on the sanctity of the lender's ledger, why bother? a limited haircut is certainly more politically feasible, but only because of the pervasiveness of that moralism, which is what I'm mad about but sure, a massive haircut sufficient to avoid the problems of austeirity would also work, let's not harden our positions over hyperbole
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:29
|
|
|
 That was tonight, just over an hour ago, having been in the A&E for 3 hours already, and then got told it would be 'around 6 more hours' to be seen. I had multiple contusions, blood running down one arm, Hemostasis in two locations and three spots with severe tissue damage (multiple dog bites from an attack). I've not had to visit an A&E for over 15 years, this felt like a Saturday night, but was what they described as one of the quiestest nights of the week (usually). There were two nurses doing triage There was one doctor on duty gently caress you Jeremy oval office The Conservatives are loving terrible, but they will still win 
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:31
|
|
|
extremely wise marx boy: the eu should just let greece have a mulligan and write off all its debt, that would definitely not set an unsustainable precedent for other eurozone members and would be extremely popular with core eu voters
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:31
|
|
|
e: Peel you're still deliberately ignoring the predictable adverse consequences to what you're proposing.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:33
|
|
|
Nonsense posted:
a substantial amount of people will vote for them despite hating all of their policies and liking labours because they're competent and labour aren't
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:34
|
|
|
Fallen Hamprince posted:extremely wise marx boy: the eu should just let greece have a mulligan and write off all its debt, that would definitely not set an unsustainable precedent for other eurozone members and would be extremely popular with core eu voters the implication here is that the euro is unsound at a basic level because of this split, which gives you a choice between giant moral hazard and policy impotence in the face of recession. writing off the periphery debt sounds less wacky when it's in the context of overhauling how the entire euro works or just abolishing the thing. there have been some attempts to overhaul it but they're hobbled by needing to adhere to austerian orthodoxy. but even given that situation, the hypothetical future danger of moral hazard is much better than the actually existing death and destitution arising from enforced austerity. other things popular with voters but widely understood to be stupid as hell: trump, brexit
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:37
|
|
|
Jose posted:a substantial amount of people will vote for them despite hating all of their policies and liking labours because they're competent and labour aren't Makes me glad that our Republicans are by contrast disorganized and increasingly distrusted dipshits, at least.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:38
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:40
|
|
|
Fallen Hamprince posted:extremely wise marx boy: the eu should just let greece have a mulligan and write off all its debt, that would definitely not set an unsustainable precedent for other eurozone members and would be extremely popular with core eu voters That and, strictly speaking, greece has already suffered a lot. 'Take out bad loans and you lose growth for a decade' is more than sufficient a disincentive.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:44
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Or there could be an explosion of economic growth once the enormous burden of servicing unsustainable debt is finally removed. What's certain is that the present debt load and accompanying austerity will continue to be a crippling anchor on growth and will instantly morph into another crisis with the next downturn. there'd be no explosion of economic growth. it'd be very difficult for greece to remain in the euro after a default because greek banks would lose the ability to gain liquidity from the ecb, necessitating a bailout with money that doesn't exist. this might be possible if it were an orderly, negotiated default, but in the more likely event it would force the greek government to re-introduce the drachma and therefore put it on the fast track to grexit. unlike argentina, greece has no real prospect for prosperity outside the eurozone. in fact, its default would precipitate a financial crisis that may put the entire continent (or world) in recession - magnifying the impact. the immediate impact would likely be shortages of basic necessities, dramatic inflation, and collapse of much of the private sector. it would take months to even produce physical drachma for people to spend. can the state even survive that? it's unclear. there's no real winning solution for greece acting unilaterally. they can take austerity from the eu, or they can accept austerity due to debt obligations and likely economic collapse. i agree that the eu/imf's strategy is inhumane and unsustainable. it may end up being the case that greece ends up defaulting anyway and they are just prolonging the inevitable - their policy is absolutely insane. but the only real solution is basically going to be for everyone to write off significant amounts of the debt and end the austerity imposed on greece. the moral hazard argument itt is insane. germany's policy is impossible. either they allow greece to survive and prosper again, or they have decades of bailouts that will cost far more than the cost of the entire debt - at horrendous cost to its people. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 23:51 on May 8, 2017 |
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:46
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:I'm not being disingenuous, you're just being thick. Peel said the only sane solutions involve writing the debt off entirely. a 50% haircut wouldn't be a sane, reasonable solution to you, if it was enough to allow Greece to start growing again?
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:47
|
|
|
it's kind of surreal contrasting the tory reputation for 'competence' with what's actually happened under their governments i mean they're bad for the economy in general, to use liberal metrics, but cameron-may in particular may actually destroy the union and be a turning point toward substantially diminished global status 'competence' in press reporting terms is a matter of signifying deference to capital and established interests more than demonstrating any kind of effectiveness Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:e: Peel you're still deliberately ignoring the predictable adverse consequences to what you're proposing. i think i just don't think they're that predictable or important. they're intuitive, but those intuitions were shaped by the same ideology that told us we needed austerity. developed countries since 2008, and japan since 1991 have proven you can play a lot of silly buggers with debt
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:54
|
|
|
If Greece were a giant bank, it'd get more money then it would as a country, because fiscal responsibility is only necessary if you're a debtor, not a creditor.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2017 23:54
|
|
|
normally i scoff at hyperinflation scaremongering because it's an actual collapse of the monetary system attending a collapse of the economic system, but greece defaulting and leaving the euro (and inviting immense EU hostility ala britain) would be enough of a shock that I wouldn't count it out in that case, not being an expert on the topic but that's why i focus on eurozone creditor intransigence. it's pointless to play the blame game at someone trapped in a trap from a saw movie trying to decide what to do when jigsaw himself is sat right next to you rambling on about Fiscal Responsibility and being lauded in the press for it
|
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 00:00
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:there'd be no explosion of economic growth. it'd be very difficult for greece to remain in the euro after a default because greek banks would lose the ability to gain liquidity from the ecb, necessitating a bailout with money that doesn't exist. this might be possible if it were an orderly, negotiated default, but in the more likely event it would force the greek government to re-introduce the drachma and therefore put it on the fast track to grexit. unlike argentina, greece has no real prospect for prosperity outside the eurozone. in fact, its default would precipitate a financial crisis that may put the entire continent (or world) in recession - magnifying the impact. the immediate impact would likely be shortages of basic necessities, dramatic inflation, and collapse of much of the private sector. it would take months to even produce physical drachma for people to spend. can the state even survive that? it's unclear. Again, most of this presupposes that Greece would have to reintroduce the drachma, which I'm not convinced is true. The prospect of an EU-wide collapse also strikes me as extremely unlikely when you look at the actual numbers in terms of exposure for the lenders. It's just not that much money relative to the combined economies of France, Germany, and co. I don't believe that starvation or complete collapse of the private sector are by any means outcomes necessarily predetermined by a default. Again, you can look at historical defaults for some precedent; indeed, what's going on right now in Greece is quite similar to the disaster stories that tend to follow a default. The difference is that the current "plan" has zero future upside. I also don't buy that Greece is so uniquely situated that the economy could not recover following a default/major restructuring. That strikes me as an extraordinary claim. Again, lenders tend to return after a major restructuring as they have an opportunity to lend to a state with low debt. It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but banks are lending quite willingly to, e.g., Argentina despite it's series of defaults that have continued to as recently as a couple years ago (2014 I believe). Yes, in the short term there would absolutely be additional hardship. But hardship is now unavoidable, as the EU is unwilling to offer a realistic restructuring plan from it's end of the table. The hardship is ongoing! Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 00:11 on May 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 00:05
|
|
|
If what you're saying is "here are the sane solutions, which are irrelevant because the Eurozone is an insane institution," then OK we're on the same page. If Europe were ruled by enlightened technocrat-kings, debt forgiveness might well be the optimal policy.
|
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 00:08
|
|
|
yeah i think we mostly agree i've been Mad About The Eurozone for the better part of a decade. i'm a prisoner of ideology.
|
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 00:18
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Again, most of this presupposes that Greece would have to reintroduce the drachma, which I'm not convinced is true. The prospect of an EU-wide collapse also strikes me as extremely unlikely when you look at the actual numbers in terms of exposure for the lenders. It's just not that much money relative to the combined economies of France, Germany, and co. well, to avoid having to reintroduce the drachma, greece would have to avoid bank collapse. they wouldn't be defaulting on germany/france, but rather would default on imf/ecb loans. greek banks are 100% reliant on the ecb for euros. they have no other way to get them because no one in the private sector is dumb enough to loan money to the greek banks. if they default on ecb loans, the ecb at that point will cut them off from ELA, which will mean the banks have no euros, which will trigger bank closures. the greeks will then have no choice but to re-introduce the drachma. this is essentially the issue - in order to stay in the EU, the greeks need the ecb to continue to provide their banks with euros despite the fact that they just defaulted on them. the ecb has said that a default on ecb loans would end the euro supply, so it would basically be a game of chicken. you're right that it it's not that much money compared to the eurozone's central members as a whole - the issue is that greece wouldn't be alone. their failure would discredit the ecb and drive up borrowing costs for the entire periphery of the eu (contagion). now you've got several sovereign debt crises, and from there it's unpredictable but potentially catastrophic. quote:I don't believe that starvation or complete collapse of the private sector are by any means outcomes necessarily predetermined by a default. Again, you can look at historical defaults for some precedent; indeed, what's going on right now in Greece is quite similar to the disaster stories that tend to follow a default. The difference is that the current "plan" has zero future upside. even a best case scenario (default with eu) would be catastrophic in short term followed by a return to growth. over the long term they'd be well above the baseline. this is what the eu should allow greece to do, but it seems they are unwilling to do that. so i think basically greece is in a no-win situation here. trying to maintain the (horrid) status quo may eventually yield debt relief, whereas a potential grexit would be really, really bad. and the grexit may end up basically being inevitable if the eu does not budge at some point. quote:I also don't buy that Greece is so uniquely situated that the economy could not recover following a default/major restructuring. That strikes me as an extraordinary claim. Again, lenders tend to return after a major restructuring as they have an opportunity to lend to a state with low debt. It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but banks are lending quite willingly to, e.g., Argentina despite it's series of defaults that have continued to as recently as a couple years ago (2014 I believe). yanis varoufakis made a blog post about why greece isn't argentina - obviously he was an enormous proponent of default with eu, and even he acknowledges that there are pretty significant differences. if greece defaulted within the eu, it could certainly recover. this is what greece would desperately try to do. but the ecb holds the cards. a default outside the eurozone may lead, quite simply, to a failed state. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 00:56 on May 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 00:46
|
|
|
also corbyn said he won't quit even if labour loses horrifically, so lol labour is doomed forever
|
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 00:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 8, 2024 21:40 |
|
|
he won't stop until labour is five socialist dudes in a basement with 100% approval amongst their 20 voters
|
|
#
?
May 9, 2017 01:01
|
|
