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Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Paul Zuvella posted:

I cannot remember being this excited for a goddamn draft lottery

Same.

Can't wait to get mildly disappointed as the Mavs go from 9th pick to 10th.

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The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Paul Zuvella posted:

They literally cannot end up with the #4 pick.

Sorry, I thought the losing the pick part was implied

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

So you guys do know that Lonzo Ball is really really good, right? I mean I hate his family and he didn't play awesome against Kentucky but he schooled suckas all season long. I watched a lot of UCLA and he's going to win a lot of games for whatever team drafts him. I just hope it isn't the Lakers.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


kiimo posted:

So you guys do know that Lonzo Ball is really really good, right? I mean I hate his family and he didn't play awesome against Kentucky but he schooled suckas all season long. I watched a lot of UCLA and he's going to win a lot of games for whatever team drafts him. I just hope it isn't the Lakers.

I and most people here have been so down on him, I'd like to hear a positive take. What do you see as his NBA level skills and role?

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

He's a creator. I'd call his court vision and passing "elite". High basketball IQ. He's got an old man game when it comes to point guard in the body of 6-6 wing. He'll dominate in the pick and roll and the outside shooting is better than people think, especially as a freshman. He's...Jason Kidd maybe? I feel like his negatives are the type of thing he'll develop no problem.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

How do you feel about the scouting reports that say he doesn't have a quick enough first step to succeed in the P&R at the NBA level meaning he'll struggle to find the same lanes and looks that he did in college?

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy
Or that his shot is so slow and unorthodox that he won't be able to get it off against quality NBA defenders when attempting to take them off the dribble?

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

You know as well as I. That's one of those I guess we'll see things but I mean...sometimes you have an NFL running back run a 4.6 and people are like he's not quick enough to succeed at the NFL level and then he turns into LeVeon Bell.


edit: are you guys watching the games? I'd take Ball over Fox any day. Every mock draft has Ball in the top 3. Fox is fast as gently caress and there's no way I'd draft him over Ball, dude is highly skilled.

kiimo fucked around with this message at 19:05 on May 16, 2017

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

kiimo posted:

You know as well as I. That's one of those I guess we'll see things but I mean...sometimes you have an NFL running back run a 4.6 and people are like he's not quick enough to succeed at the NFL level and then he turns into LeVeon Bell.


edit: are you guys watching the games?

That tends to be the exception that proves the rule. I'm not as down on Ball as others, but there are very valid questions about his ability to perform at the same level in the NBA.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I hope the Sixers don't get ball. Very afraid of him.

Hand Row
May 28, 2001
I don't doubt his awesomeness in college, but if we are making NFL comparisons, I would be more worried that he is Reggie Bush.

His lack of finishing in the paint is more concerning to me than his shooting off the dribble.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

That is also what concerns me. The drive + finish ability.

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

euphronius posted:

I hope the Sixers don't get ball. Very afraid of him.

I'm not a fan of the Simmons+Ball combo.

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch
Ball Simmons

roundmidnight
Jul 9, 2010
Ball has control and vision at a high-NBA level already from what I've seen. Didn't seem to be super flashy but always made the right pass at the right time. It seemed like he could control the tempo and flow of the game almost every play, which is a weird indescribable thing I would dub as Chris Paulian (but unlike Paul he is content with pushing the pace).

The shot looks truly terrible, though; the slow-mo clip in his shoe commercial made me audibly gasp and groan. I think if he can remake his shot and work on his finishing he'll be really great.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Exactly. I don't want a project tho if I'm the Sixers.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

Ball is tall and has good vision and hey Kyle Anderson has carved out a niche for himself so why can't Ball

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Redgrendel2001 posted:

I'm not a fan of the Simmons+Ball combo.

I disagree . I forget who I was listening to (Bodner?) that mentioned he had Ball higher for the Sixers than other teams because Ball's weaknesses could be glazed over by Simmons


I'll take Ball over Fox any day

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

I disagree . I forget who I was listening to (Bodner?) that mentioned he had Ball higher for the Sixers than other teams because Ball's weaknesses could be glazed over by Simmons


I'll take Ball over Fox any day

I'm interested in that argument because they have a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses assuming you think Ball's shot won't work in the NBA.

Agree on ball over fox though

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

roundmidnight posted:

if he can remake his shot

I feel like this is something that gets said about maybe a third of all candidates and then maybe one in every two hundred NBA players ever does it

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

I think most shooting coaches aren't going to want to deconstruct a shot that goes in pretty regularly. That's why dudes like Kevin Martin and Shawn Marion got to keep their hideous looking jumpers for so long. At best you'll probably see it become more consistent and with a faster release (if that's possible) but even then it'll be an incremental thing.

Fox, on the other hand, would probably be building his shot from the ground up

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

kiimo posted:

So you guys do know that Lonzo Ball is really really good, right? I mean I hate his family and he didn't play awesome against Kentucky but he schooled suckas all season long. I watched a lot of UCLA and he's going to win a lot of games for whatever team drafts him. I just hope it isn't the Lakers.

This is very true, and I think the jokes come from either A) Picking Ball over Fultz which I don't think makes sense and B) The fact that if he goes to the Lakers it'll be hilarious. Ball's value comes completely down to if his shot will work in the NBA.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

I disagree . I forget who I was listening to (Bodner?) that mentioned he had Ball higher for the Sixers than other teams because Ball's weaknesses could be glazed over by Simmons


I'll take Ball over Fox any day

That was bodner iirc. He's right . Ball would easily work with Simmons but I want more from this draft .

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Declan MacManus posted:

Ball is tall and has good vision and hey Kyle Anderson has carved out a niche for himself so why can't Ball

This is not something you want to be saying about a guy you might be taking in the top three

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

IcePhoenix posted:

This is not something you want to be saying about a guy you might be taking in the top three

Exactly. To be fair to ball; his on the court results were stupendous.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

Ball is way way better than Kyle Anderson was in college and has the advantage of actually being fast enough to be a point guard in the NBA. I'm just thinking worst case scenario (which would be something like post knee-injury Shaun Livingston I guess)

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

IcePhoenix posted:

This is not something you want to be saying about a guy you might be taking in the top three

He is saying Ball's floor isn't bad, and every player has bad worst-case scenarios. If Ball's shot does work then you have Steph Curry future HOF Buddy Hield v2.

Paul Zuvella
Dec 7, 2011

Ball to me has a pretty high floor. He handles the ball too well and shoots too well for him to be a complete bust. I just don't buy into his potential ceiling. At the end of the day, a long althreltic guy who can shoot open threes is extremely useful in today's NBA

Jota
May 6, 2003

uga-booga uga-booga

kiimo posted:

He's a creator. I'd call his court vision and passing "elite". High basketball IQ. He's got an old man game when it comes to point guard in the body of 6-6 wing. He'll dominate in the pick and roll and the outside shooting is better than people think, especially as a freshman. He's...Jason Kidd maybe? I feel like his negatives are the type of thing he'll develop no problem.

I agree with a lot of the stuff you are saying here , although maybe not the dominating in the pick and roll part. He's a great passer but if Draftexpress is right, he passed out of the pick and roll about 75% of the time. And he's not a great scorer in isolation.

When it comes to his shot, even if he doesn't change anything I think he'll still be a very good 3 point shooter , the problem with his shot is how much it fucks him from trying to shoot off the dribble. Combine with him not really being that great at getting into the paint and scoring, it could make it a lot easier for defenses to guard him.

The Jason Kidd comparison gets thrown around a lot but I feel like he's more similar to second Mavericks run Jason Kidd than prime Jason Kidd. Also Kidd was a far better defender than Ball looks to be. All that said, combining his IQ, ability to drill open 3's, his crazy court vision, and ability in transition, I think he will be a solid pro, but his weaknesses would make me not want to spend a top 3 pick on him since it is easy to see the potential for them to hold him back from being a star.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




MourningView posted:

I'm interested in that argument because they have a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses assuming you think Ball's shot won't work in the NBA.

Agree on ball over fox though

Yeah, it was Bodner. I took a quick re-listen and it was a lot more generalities than specifics, but

-The more +++ passers/playmakers a team has, the better that makes everyone else

-Ball isn't that ball dominant and his style is quick and fast

-With Simmons also running point, Ball doesn't have to be the "do-everything" guard he would have to be on the Kings or somewhere else

Of course, watch the Sixers draft a PG and then back up the Brinks truck for Kyle Lowry

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

EvanTH posted:

This thread was one of the first to acknowledge Jaylen Brown: useful rookie, despite its own internal rookies are bad law that might seem to abnegate the concept

Coming back to this, but the "Rookies are Bad" is somewhat assuming you are going to play the rookie in a big role. Jaylen Brown was the 8th guy on the team, and was slotted as a low-usage, hustle and cutter kind of guy. I think you can get usefulness from a rookie there, but it's not like he moved the needle much. Spread his minutes around to Green, etc and I don't think you change the win total at all.

Given what was on the board when they picked 3rd, Jaylen Brown is not as hilarious of a pick as it first seemed, but right now he's probably right around replacement level. If Boston needed to replace him with a vet-minimum guy they probably could.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

I mean there are rookies who are good and contribute right away, and you'll even have super efficient dudes come out of the gate (Faried comes to mind) but generally speaking most rookies are going to be inefficient as they adjust to the pace of the NBA, and they are invariably bad defenders outside of blocks or steals

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations
The fix is in.
https://twitter.com/swish41/status/864558470380621824
Congrats to Boston, the Lakers, and the Knicks.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I don't mind paying Lowry a 4 year deal even if they draft a pg. they need lots of players.

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd
I probably should've added earlier, as much as I like Jaylen Brown and was impressed by the speed with which he was adjusting to the pace and complexity of the NBA game, he still is actually technically overall a minus player

Don't anyone worry there's no paradox the rule holds true and his BPM is steady -4 for both the regular and post-season.

He looks good, but everything he's showing this post-season should be considered promising still, because he isn't nearly as good as he's going to be. Haha can you imagine a 20 year old kid guarded by LeBron in the playoffs? We'll get to see it in a few days

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I feel like less than half of the top three picks really work out. There's is a significant chance Ball fails, I have to admit. That's the weirdness that is the NBA draft. I haven't seen a player play like Ball plays in a long time. I'm certainly not going to guarantee it. I just wouldn't take Fox over Ball I guess is my main point. Fox is fast but ask UK fans how they felt about him this season. Being fast is like the only thing he does really well. He looked good against UCLA but go back into the season and see how fans felt after Ball came into Lexington and ran a clinic on UK at home.

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

Declan MacManus posted:

I mean there are rookies who are good and contribute right away, and you'll even have super efficient dudes come out of the gate (Faried comes to mind) but generally speaking most rookies are going to be inefficient as they adjust to the pace of the NBA, and they are invariably bad defenders outside of blocks or steals

Part of what I really liked about the Washington series was slow-motion Avery Bradley replay. The dude is constantly grabbing and grabbing, pulling an off-hand wrist when the opponent is dribbling so they can't switch their dribble, pulling on jerseys and shorts whenever a dude tries to use a screen off-ball. He's so quick and he's so good at shielding it from the refs. Some combination of a cruel older sibling who repeatedly violates the my side v. your side car-riding territorial agreements and a street magician who keeps some of the watches at the end of the trick and a terrier mauling a rat. He does dozens of small things that don't come near the box score.

I think a lot of that uncharted small stuff (aka Dirty Vet Tricks) accounts for a lot of the adjustment period. You run into people who are completely familiar with how the refs call the rules, where the boundaries are, and what they can get away with.

Now that I think of it, a lot of European players come in needing to adjust to the speed of the game but perfectly up-to-date if not well-beyond in the dirty tricks department.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Thanks all for encouragement.

Lockback posted:

I dunno, I don't watch any NCAA so my opinions are super lovely but I don't see why Ball and Russell can't co-exist in the backcourt. It'd give them great shooting and ball handling, you wouldn't get any size mismatch from switching, and I don't think they'd get in each others way.
The Lakers become a worse version of the Blazers backcourt on offense (much worse to start, since Ball has no halfcourt basketball skills other than catch and shoot with a broken jumper at this time), and roughly equally as bad on defense (CJ and Lillard are the worst defensive backcourt in the league). You can't run a two PG backcourt and hang defensively unless one of those PGs is defensive-minded enough to guard 2s.

IcePhoenix posted:

How do you feel about the scouting reports that say he doesn't have a quick enough first step to succeed in the P&R at the NBA level meaning he'll struggle to find the same lanes and looks that he did in college?

It's not just the scouting report, the numbers say the same thing.

kiimo posted:

You know as well as I. That's one of those I guess we'll see things but I mean...sometimes you have an NFL running back run a 4.6 and people are like he's not quick enough to succeed at the NFL level and then he turns into LeVeon Bell.


edit: are you guys watching the games? I'd take Ball over Fox any day. Every mock draft has Ball in the top 3. Fox is fast as gently caress and there's no way I'd draft him over Ball, dude is highly skilled.

Yes I've seen the games which is why I'm not fooled and not sure how anyone who isn't a UCLA fan could be! He looks great when UCLA runs, but he brings very little to the table when he's not. All of this "transcendent passing" goes out of the window when talking about setting up a play against a set defense, which is why UCLA primarily played him with another guy to run the offense when teams were able to force halfcourt ball. Considering how difficult it is to constantly fast break in the NBA and how important halfcourt offense is to the league, this is a big problem. He's highly skilled at skills that are irrelevant in the pros.

Also you're just stright up wrong about him being good at PnR. He's 70th among college players in pick and roll scoring.

The only way he becomes a great NBA player is if he learns a lot of new basketball skills or can somehow reverse a trend of limited fast break basketball that has been going for 20 years now.

Because he does have a high basketball IQ, and is one of the best shooters in the draft (broken shot or not) I think it might be possible for him to develop this stuff. But "might be possible" isn't a top 3 pick in my opinion, and not a top 5 pick in a draft with some other good prospects, even at the same position if you're drafting for need for some reason.

I'd draft him over Fox too, but because if all of Ball's college skills bust, he has a jumpshot. If all of Fox's skills bust he's on a plane to China. I wouldn't take either of them top 5.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Rick posted:


If all of Fox's skills bust he's on a plane to China. I wouldn't take either of them top 5.

From here on out I'm assuming Fox is the new Jonny Flynn.

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euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Agree 100% rick on lonzo there. Not top 5.

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