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Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


fridge corn posted:

Where do I find out how my constituency is polling? I live in a marginal seat

as far as I know, there's no constituency - level polls. Some betting websites let you bet at the constituency level, so you can have a look on the odds there, but that is at best a expression of where people are putting their money not anything based on polls.

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Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
People sometimes pretend door to door canvassing figures are 'polling' but those people are idiots.

madey
Sep 17, 2007

I saved the Olympics singlehandedly

pointsofdata posted:

Tbh a proper inheritance tax would be more than that, but yes.

Agreed, albeit with a higher minimum as you said.

This 'll be outrageously punishing on families who are unlucky enough to be both working class and in need of social care.

Putting a percentage on it rather than leaving it open ended makes it seem much more easier to grasp how bad it is.

Ewan
Sep 29, 2008

Ewan is tired of his reputation as a serious Simon. I'm more of a jokester than you people think. My real name isn't even Ewan, that was a joke it's actually MARTIN! LOL fooled you again, it really is Ewan! Look at that monkey with a big nose, Ewan is so random! XD

Pissflaps posted:

People sometimes pretend door to door canvassing figures are 'polling' but those people are idiots.
Exhibit A:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/866229907357147136

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

She's breaking

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
Jeremy desperately trying to take attention away from May's horror show

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866607464061513728

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Coohoolin posted:

If SNP MPs would vote for a Corbyn government in parliament, than isn't a vote for the SNP a vote for Corbyn, especially when certain Scottish Labour candidates are explicitly anti-Corbyn?

The SNP has a symbiotic relationship with the Conservatives because they both love banging on about independence. So gently caress them.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

Jeremy desperately trying to take attention away from May's horror show

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866607464061513728

Sounds to me like a journalist is doing their best to ask irrelevant questions instead of talking about the policy issues in this election. Weird how they never ask if the UVF was a terrorist group.

Zalakwe
Jun 4, 2007
Likes Cake, Hates Hamsters



Pissflaps posted:

People sometimes pretend door to door canvassing figures are 'polling' but those people are idiots.

I know they it is not the same thing as a poll, but if you have good canvassing you can use it to predict the outcome of an election extremely accurately.

Edit: Getting enough data to do this well is hard.

Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 12:29 on May 22, 2017

El Grillo
Jan 3, 2008
Fun Shoe
Welp. That's poo poo. Labour could've sung 'dementia tax' all the way to a small majority Conservative win. Now is going to be 'May will listen to the people!'
Seriously, the Tories have been flip-flopping on tons of things for the past 7 years, and while the media get all in a frenzy about it, I don't know that most people care beyond the fact that something slightly less poo poo is going to happen to them as a result.

If anyone has evidence to the contrary that would be good.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Hmm, let's take a look at these "Labour Uncut" chaps/chapettes and see if they might have an agenda...(bolding mine)

quote:

UNCUT: Three quick points about the Labour manifesto
17/05/2017, 01:51:57 PM

by Kevin Meagher

You campaign in poetry…

Today we’re talking about Labour’s radical plans to scrap tuition fees, nationalise industries deemed to have failed the public, spend more on public services and raise the living wage – while making the dastardly rich pay for it all.

We’re not talking about Brexit and we’re not talking about how Labour wants to scrap nuclear weapons. Or, actually, about Jeremy Corbyn. This is a tactical victory, of sorts.

Is the manifesto wise or workable? Hmmm. Do the individual measures resonate with voters? Yes. Is Labour credible when it explains how they will be funded? No. But the manifesto peps-up Labour activists who now have meaty, simply-understood things to talk about on the doorstep, other than the merits or demerits of their leader.

The sums don’t add up. Who cares?


Labour has a £57 billion ‘black hole’ in its spending plans, splutter the Conservatives, totting-up Labour’s great Monopoly grab of utilities.

Theresa May and Philip Hammond even called a presser so they could stand there and intone about the Cost of Labour. Stood behind their podiums this morning they looked like the lamest Kraftwerk tribute act ever, or a couple of mismatched contestants on Pointless, with Theresa May fluffing a question about whether she still has confidence in Hammond. (‘Well, we’ve known each other a long time…’)

For weary voters, it boils down to one group of politicians they don’t trust claiming the sums of the other group of politicians they don’t trust don’t add up.

At this stage, nothing matters

Election campaigns don’t fundamentally alter voters’ choices. Nothing that happens is either a dramatic success or failure.
You cannot rub out months or years’ worth gradually constructed opinions in a few weeks. Labour famously ‘won’ the 1987 election campaign but lost the election. Ed Miliband had a really good campaign back in 2015. His performance was probably the highpoint of his five year leadership. But, by then, the public had weighed and measured him and found him wanting. Alas, Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers tell the same story.

Kevin Meagher is associate editor of Uncut

The list of associates is something to behold as well (bolding mine again)

quote:

Outside

Alastair Campbell
All that's left
Anthony Painter
Beau Bo D'or
Blackburn Labour
Chicken Yoghurt
Coffee House
Compass
Conservative Home
Dan McCurry
Dave Howells Illustration
Diary of a benefit scrounger
Evening Standard Politics
First Drafts: Prospect blog
Follow my leaders
FT Westminster
Guardian Live Blog
Guido Fawkes
Hopi Sen
Huffington Post
Iain Dale
Kate Williams
Kerry McCarthy
Kevin Maguire
Kezia Dugdale
Labour List
Labour Values
Left Foot Forward
Left Futures
Liberal Conspiracy
London Young Labour
Luke Akehurst
New Statesman
Next Left
Peter Wheeler
Political Betting
Political Promise
Political Scrapbook
Pragmatic Radicalism
Progress
Roberta Blackman-Woods
Scarlet Standard
SMF Market Square
Speaker's Chair
The Centre Left
The Daily Beast
The Daily Mash
Though Cowards Flinch
Tom Harris
Tom Watson
Total Politics

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

TheRat posted:

She's breaking



She appears to be on the news right now doubling down on the policy.

Dabir
Nov 10, 2012


look who you're replying to

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

cool to see may break under the slightest scrutiny. shame it took so long for the press to apply it

Ewan
Sep 29, 2008

Ewan is tired of his reputation as a serious Simon. I'm more of a jokester than you people think. My real name isn't even Ewan, that was a joke it's actually MARTIN! LOL fooled you again, it really is Ewan! Look at that monkey with a big nose, Ewan is so random! XD
I've never seen Theresa shout like this.

Oh dear me
Aug 14, 2012

I have burned numerous saucepans, sometimes right through the metal

Zalakwe posted:

Steve GIlbert's old constituency, that is a really interesting one. I think the LDs will likely come second at least

Could be. Certainly when canvassing for Labour our biggest obstacle is the belief that only LDs can beat the Tories. On the other hand, people remember what Stephen Gilbert actually did.

Serotonin
Jul 14, 2001

The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of *blank*

Ewan posted:

I've never seen Theresa shout like this.

Is Mummy angry?

Firos
Apr 30, 2007

Staying abreast of the latest developments in jam communism



Link to May freaking out?

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Corbyn with the bantz

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/866616811009097736

serious gaylord
Sep 16, 2007

what.

Dabir posted:

look who you're replying to

Are you actually going to post about anything other than ignoring pissflaps this month?



Serotonin posted:

Is Mummy angry?

I'd say she was close to full on meltdown but not quite there.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

How far back in history do we have to go to find ourselves with a pair of worse party leaders than we have now. loving hell.

Ewan
Sep 29, 2008

Ewan is tired of his reputation as a serious Simon. I'm more of a jokester than you people think. My real name isn't even Ewan, that was a joke it's actually MARTIN! LOL fooled you again, it really is Ewan! Look at that monkey with a big nose, Ewan is so random! XD

Firos posted:

Link to May freaking out?
Was on Sky News live stream. They've got a clip on their Twitter but it isn't the part where she was pretty much full on shouting NOTHING HAS CHANGED

fridge corn
Apr 2, 2003

NO MERCY, ONLY PAIN :black101:

Pissflaps posted:

It's unlikely there is any polling data for your constituency.

:(

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Pissflaps posted:

How far back in history do we have to go to find ourselves with a pair of worse party leaders than we have now. loving hell.

Harriet Harman was pretty loving terrible, so 2015?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I think this 'climbdown' is another miscalculation. They look weak due to the u-turn but haven't actually changed the policy enough to defuse the damage it's doing. It's still a dementia tax and it now hits that crucial middle class demographic hardest.

Firos
Apr 30, 2007

Staying abreast of the latest developments in jam communism



Guardian Liveblog posted:

May says Corbyn has claimed elderly people will have to lose their homes. No one will have to lose their family home while they are alive, she says.

I love the implication that the Tories will definitely be taking people's houses once they die lol.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Irony Be My Shield posted:

I think this 'climbdown' is another miscalculation. They look weak due to the u-turn but haven't actually changed the policy enough to defuse the damage it's doing. It's still a dementia tax and it now hits that crucial middle class demographic hardest.

STRONG AND STABLE
STRONG AND STABLE
STRONG AND STABLE

Incy
May 30, 2006
for other Out

Firos posted:

I love the implication that the Tories will definitely be taking people's houses once they die lol.

But they aren't voting once they are dead, so win win.

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


MikeCrotch posted:

Because, as has been pointed out before in this thread, Labour is pairing the cap with increased taxation on wealthier families. So everyone gets the benefit of the cap but if you're richer you will pay more, its just not explicitly stated via means testing.

Means testing is so burned into people's brains at this point that they can't wrap their head around actually paying for things with taxes.

You only benefit from the cap if your parents estate was greater than estate value floor + contribution cap. Inheritance tax is indeed better, but the cap still make the pay for care bit worse.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH
I'm starting to belive that Pissflaps and John Rentoul are the same person.

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


Firos posted:

I love the implication that the Tories will definitely be taking people's houses once they die lol.

Tbh it's the best time to take someone's house.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/866620871112368129

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


Now that the pay for care thing no longer randomly fucks with well off 60 year olds I'm much less keen on it.

El Grillo
Jan 3, 2008
Fun Shoe

Pissflaps posted:

How far back in history do we have to go to find ourselves with a pair of worse party leaders than we have now. loving hell.
I thought that was actually pretty good from Corbz. Not that it helps at this stage but he was pretty much bang on in his response - poke a bit at the Conservatives' 'horrible policy' but otherwise leave them to their mini-implosion. Also genuinely funny with the 'of George Osborne is finally doing something useful with his life...' bit.

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


Pissflaps posted:

Jeremy desperately trying to take attention away from May's horror show

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866607464061513728

It's not a hard question, even if you support their aims and methods!

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
May is being interviewed by Andrew Neil tonight so that could be fun

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

Man, she looks desperate and frustrated

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

pointsofdata posted:

It's not a hard question, even if you support their aims and methods!

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866622530764910593

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Pissflaps posted:

Jeremy desperately trying to take attention away from May's horror show

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866607464061513728

This is just stupidity. I mean, if you support a unified Ireland and believe that the UK did terrible things in Ulster absolutely fair enough...but you can still say the IRA were a terrorist group. I mean, they literally were. And likewise, you can condemn the IRA without endless prevarication and whataboutery.

Considering the handwringing in this thread over a bloody cup (a cup that promoted a policy far more liberal/open than Corbyn's policy on immigration), I'm surprised people are so sanguine about this. It's giving the Tories a route back to controlling the narrative every time it looks like they're on the back foot.

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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Can we get a full transcript? It still isn't an improvement, if that prevarication was the answer to a question on whether the IRA were a terrorist organisation.

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