Smol posted:

I think I read in NYT that apparently usually over half of Montana votes early. So if Gianforte had a good lead, him losing votes today might not be enough.

exploded mummy posted:

Caros posted:

The final vote count was 217-213 with one absent who would have voted yes. We know that in the initial round (before things were changed) the total got as high at 223, though two of those were democrats who... I dunno, had a seizure or something. That means the republicans likely had, at minimum, 222 of the 216 votes that they needed. So no, one vote does not in fact matter. Democrats are unlikely to flip six house seats before 2016, so it really doesn't seem likely to matter in the grand scheme of things from a legislative sense.

It does, of course, matter in terms of optics and scaring house republicans. Which is why I would have prefered an outright loss rather than a bodyslam based loss.

I'll take my victory where I can get it, but a man can still dream, right?

VitalSigns posted:

And there are two more house special elections coming up in June.

Hyrax Attack! posted:

He has $300 million? Why would he want to be in Congress? I'd buy a house in Kauai and go to weekly luaus.

paperwind posted:

I saw hundreds and hundreds of new posts, wondering what stupid or awful thing Trump did today.

And it wasn't even Trump this time!

Furnaceface posted:

Trump is going to claim the tape is a fake and say he has the real one then accidentally give the media the pee tape.

FizFashizzle posted:

the bbq

RZApublican posted:

Where is the non-Georgia election?

WhiskeyJuvenile posted:

https://twitter.com/LanaDelRaytheon/status/867482632493318144

The Lord of Hats posted:

Everyone knows that the true measure of geographical worth is miles of freshwater shoreline, which is why Minnesota is the best state in the nation.

mango sentinel posted:

Trump told Duterte that Duterte is doing a great job with the drug problem and also divulged we have two "nuclear submarines" off the coast of North Korea. Trump noted we totally don't want to use them. It is unclear if Trump meant nuclear powered or nuclear armed, since he likely does not understand the distinction.

Also his hotels aren't disclosing payments from foreign powers, abrogating his promise to do so.

RZApublican posted:

Where is the non-Georgia election?

mango sentinel posted:

Trump told Duterte that Duterte is doing a great job with the drug problem and also divulged we have two "nuclear submarines" off the coast of North Korea. Trump noted we totally don't want to use them. It is unclear if Trump meant nuclear powered or nuclear armed, since he likely does not understand the distinction.

Also his hotels aren't disclosing payments from foreign powers, abrogating his promise to do so.

glowing-fish posted:

The highest point in Arkansas is 2700 feet.

That is a hill!

The highest point in Arkansas is 800 feet lower than my house in Montana, and I lived at the bottom of one of Montana's lower valleys.

Like, without exagerration, I grew up thinking of "mountains" as meaning places that are rocky, covered with snow 10 months a year, at least a mile above sea level, above the timberline...Like, you East Coast people know that "Timberline" isn't just a brand name for clothing, that is a real thing, an altitude where trees don't grow? You do know that, right?

FourLeaf posted:

Rich white businessmen can get away with anything If he faces consequences because of this, it'll only be because he's a politician under heavy public scrutiny already.

Smol posted:

I think I read in NYT that apparently usually over half of Montana votes early. So if Gianforte had a good lead, him losing votes today might not be enough.

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

Truth. Also:

https://twitter.com/missoulian/status/867598860700569600

Billings is the largest city, it's usually a bellweather battleground.

Missoula is hippies and students.

mango sentinel posted:

Trump told Duterte that Duterte is doing a great job with the drug problem and also divulged we have two "nuclear submarines" off the coast of North Korea. Trump noted we totally don't want to use them. It is unclear if Trump meant nuclear powered or nuclear armed, since he likely does not understand the distinction.

Also his hotels aren't disclosing payments from foreign powers, abrogating his promise to do so.

Kilroy posted:

I don't see why the focus on "scaring Republicans" since if they gave a poo poo in the first place, then they're probably already "scared" (and if they don't see the writing on the wall already, then a special election isn't going to make a big difference). And, a lot of them probably aren't too concerned with losing their seats anyway. The Democratic party is the craven politician's guild - the GOP is there to push through the more heinous components of the ruling class's agenda, and the smarter rank-and-file already know that. Losing their seat in the line of duty just means richer rewards later on for them. For the rest, a scared GOP just means more voter suppression and propaganda and whatever other underhanded poo poo they can dream up. It's not going to change the agenda - that's locked in.

RZApublican posted:

Where is the non-Georgia election?

Erostratus posted:

Billings Gazette, the paper that withdrew the endorsement, said it was only 37%. So it should be interesting.

MT GOP Chair Jeff Essman posted:

Dear Republican Friends,

I am writing today to outline why I am opposing the Mail Ballot Bill introduced just last Friday as SB 305. While I believe it has been introduced on behalf of many County Commissioners who wish to reduce the fiscal impact to their county budgets of the special election to replace Congressman Zinke, the bill will have long term negative impacts to the future election prospects of Republicans at all levels in Montana. So here are my reasons: All mail ballots give the Democrats an inherent advantage in close elections due to their ability to organize large numbers of unpaid college students and members of public employee unions to gather ballots by going door to door. Here are the facts: Data indicates that a vote-by-mail law in Montana would favor Democrats for two primary reasons.

1. Early Mail Voting Favors Democrats

Data from Montana in the 2016 cycle showed Democrats dominated early voting. Democrat candidates for President, Congress and Governor consistently over-performed among voters who said they had already cast their ballots.

2. Lower Propensity Voters Favor Democrat Candidates

Vote-by-mail is designed to increase participation rates of lower propensity voters. Democrats in Montana perform better than Republican candidates among lower propensity voters and Republican candidates do better among higher propensity voters.

If you remember back to Senator Conrad Burns' loss of his reelection in 2006 by 3562 votes you should know that Senator Burns won the most votes that were cast on Election Day. He actually lost the election in votes that were cast by mail prior to Election Day. So the urban myth that he lost the election due to same day registration and voting is incorrect. He lost because of all the mail ballots that had been painstakingly gathered by Democrat front groups in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

As drafted, SB 305 will do nothing to prevent possible Election Day voting problems. SB 305 is not really a bill for an “all mail” ballot election. Close reading of the bill reveals that it really just permits a county by county decision on whether to hold a mail ballot election. So not all counties would be required to use the same process. That would permit counties where there is a desire for satellite polling places, like in many of our counties where our Indian reservations exist, to continue to use polling places and deal with the attendant problems of same day voter registration and identification.

Democrats have an inherent financial advantage when it comes to party political operations in Montana. The Montana Democrat Party raised and spent over $7 Million dollars in the last election cycle. Their allies spent another $2.4 million that we are aware of. The Montana Republican Party was able to raise and spend only about $1 million. We simply do not have access to millions of dollars of Union PAC money that the Democrats do. They gather checks from multiple committees around the country at the $10,000 maximum while we are raising money from the grassroots at $50 to $100 at a time. There is no way we can keep up with them if we have to raise money to overcome the inherent advantage they would obtain with mail ballot elections.

This will not be the end of efforts to go to a mail ballot election where the Democrats want one and the Republicans do not. MACO and the County Election administrators have favored Mail Ballot elections in past sessions and will do so again. If they succeed in this effort this time they will use it as an example of success and will work to make it permanent.

I know that my position will not be popular with many fiscally conservative Republican County Commissioners or the sponsor of House Bill 305. They may be well intended, but this bill could be the death of our effort to make Montana a reliably Republican state. It is my job to remind us all of the long term strategic advantage that passage of this bill would provide to our Democrat opponents for control of our legislature and our statewide elected positions.

Please contact your legislator and ask them to vote NO on SB 305.

Rigel posted:

Break out that banjo!

edit: holy poo poo, he can even play a flute. What can't Quist do?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzPaI5bTP48

Stickman posted:

While I basically agree that an overconfident GOP would be easier to beat in some ways, even Democrats like winning. The more the GOP seems beatable, the more likely it is that the masses of Covoks will actually get off their "nothing matters" despair sofas and vote in 2018.

farraday posted:

South Carolina to replace Mulvaney. Don't get your hopes up.

AShamefulDisplay posted:

Mountain chat: my cousin's partner came out west to visit the family a couple years ago and we took her to Mount Ranier. She's been to the Ozarks, been to the Appalachians, etc but once we got up to Lake Tipsoo, even she was saying that anything east of the Rockies were just hills.

spunkshui posted:

Probably armed since North Korea has been playing with nukes and missiles for a while.

Or maybe they just shoot down missiles and thats why every missile NC fires ends up a failure... That would actually make a ton of sense, I don't think its that hard to build a basic missile.

farraday posted:

South Carolina to replace Mulvaney. Don't get your hopes up.

Young Freud posted:

Kerbal Space Program would like to have a word with you. Even though it's a gamey simulation, it goes to show you that it's actually pretty difficult to build a rocket that you want to do something other than go up. We're not even talking about getting the thing to hit a target on another land mass relatively unseen, that's like a whole other ballgame altogether.

Even Space X forgot to do their staging in the correct order, the common noob mistake in Kerbal.

boner confessor posted:

i'm very impressed that your cousin's partner was able to recognize the relative difference in height across different types of mountains. thank you for sharing, this was very brave

spunkshui posted:

Probably armed since North Korea has been playing with nukes and missiles for a while.

Or maybe they just shoot down missiles and thats why every missile NC fires ends up a failure... That would actually make a ton of sense, I don't think its that hard to build a basic missile.

Ice Phisherman posted:

Whatever, haters. Can't fly if you don't try.