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Supremezero posted:Er, the voters aren't the problem here. The congressmen are. They're the ones who will freak out, not the voters about "Oh that guy almost won in Montana". ....What the gently caress does it matter if a congressman freaks out? I don't give a poo poo how my congressman feels, I just want him out of office.
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May 26, 2017 03:49
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Silver lining here is if gianforte wins due to early voting we get to brand the Republicans as the Choke Slam Party and hopefully drive away people who think reporters shouldn't be assaulted, if there are any of those left.
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May 26, 2017 03:49
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Not to sound ~Covokian~ here, but voters come 2018 won't care or care to remember what happened in another state, so using this as a benchmark for the ~growing tide of progressivism~ is *also* a bit premature. you have a point, but it's less that people will remember montana and more an assumption that the shift in montana is present in the rest of the country as well
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May 26, 2017 03:49
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Not to sound ~Covokian~ here, but voters come 2018 won't care or care to remember what happened in another state, so using this as a benchmark for the ~growing tide of progressivism~ is *also* a bit premature. Except that the majority of the swing has ALMOST nothing to do with what happened and mostly everything to do with the Republicans loving everything for themselves.
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May 26, 2017 03:49
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Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America?
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May 26, 2017 03:49
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Nemo2342 posted:I kind of figured emailing Young was a waste of time, but I did send both Sullivan and Murkowski emails. Only Murkowski replied though. Murkowski is a good GOP Senator to call/email. She is pretty suspicious of AHCA
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May 26, 2017 03:49
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JBP posted:Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America? its a misdemeanor and he won't be convicted he will pay a fine and as long as he doesn't assault someone else in 6-12 months the case will be dismissed
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May 26, 2017 03:50
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JBP posted:Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America? Yes. Felons can't vote, but just about anyone can be elected. Even dead people.
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May 26, 2017 03:50
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JBP posted:Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America? The GOP will. If Gianforte wins he's in. As I understand it, he's been charged with a misdemeanor he will likely simply pay his way out of jail for and expecting his colleagues in the house to vote to expel him for any reason, let alone picking on a Guardian reporter, is a frankly hilarious notion in the age of Trump and AHCA.
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May 26, 2017 03:50
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JBP posted:Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America? Yes, and if we didn't, you'd find a lot more minority politicians getting convicted for assulting an officer.
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May 26, 2017 03:51
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:you have a point, but it's less that people will remember montana and more an assumption that the shift in montana is present in the rest of the country as well It would be consistent with the other 3 races so far (CA-whatever, KS-03 and GA-06) and 4 points is probably enough to conclusively say "yeah the Dems are up 10-15 from last year" and that is an absolutely insane swing.
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May 26, 2017 03:51
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JBP posted:Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America? Yes just look at Bill Clinton.
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May 26, 2017 03:51
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Silver lining here is if gianforte wins due to early voting we get to brand the Republicans as the Choke Slam Party and hopefully drive away people who think reporters shouldn't be assaulted, if there are any of those left. this is better than a quist win
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May 26, 2017 03:51
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JBP posted:Do you let people convicted of assault be politicians in America? POTUS is a rapist, so...
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May 26, 2017 03:51
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Ragnar Homsar posted:The chokeslam happened yesterday and a majority of Montana's electorate voted early. I'm aware and I'm not saying this is a disastrous result for the Dems. But Gianforte was not a particularly strong candidate and the election was very visible came at a time of high public scrutiny of the GOP and Trump. As I said, some Republicans will sweat, but the election results are proving that a lot of the rosier Dem projections were quite exaggerated.
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May 26, 2017 03:52
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skylined! posted:this is better than a quist win Nah, I'd rather have the seat to be honest
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May 26, 2017 03:52
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skylined! posted:this is better than a quist win
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May 26, 2017 03:52
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Powder River has fully reported results in 18 of 21 precincts. Gianforte is up 63 points. He’d want to be up by at least about 52 points to win statewide based on the past two presidential elections in Montana.
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May 26, 2017 03:52
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Not to sound ~Covokian~ here, but voters come 2018 won't care or care to remember what happened in another state, so using this as a benchmark for the ~growing tide of progressivism~ is *also* a bit premature. Within a vacuum, absolutely, you're correct. When taken with Georgia and Kansas and the 20 pt swing in NY just this week. A national pattern is developing.
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May 26, 2017 03:52
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Silver lining here is if gianforte wins due to early voting we get to brand the Republicans as the Choke Slam Party and hopefully drive away people who think reporters shouldn't be assaulted, if there are any of those left. That's not what's going to happen.
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May 26, 2017 03:53
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Spiritus Nox posted:....What the gently caress does it matter if a congressman freaks out? I don't give a poo poo how my congressman feels, I just want him out of office. ...are you dumb? Because that's exactly what makes them scarred to vote for things like the ACA
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May 26, 2017 03:53
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ISeeCuckedPeople posted:Yes just look at Bill Clinton. *Google's Bill Clinton assault conviction*
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May 26, 2017 03:53
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Supremezero posted:To be fair, there are states that let you change your early vote. Ah yeah, early voting with the ability to change would do it.
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May 26, 2017 03:53
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fsif posted:I'm aware and I'm not saying this is a disastrous result for the Dems. But Gianforte was not a particularly strong candidate and the election was very visible came at a time of high public scrutiny of the GOP and Trump. This is an R+20 seat. If the Dems win this it implies in a nationwide election they would win something like 320 seats.
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May 26, 2017 03:53
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axeil posted:This is an R+20 seat. If the Dems win this it implies in a nationwide election they would win something like 320 seats. and thats 320 out of 435 seats. 320 is a loving shitton. It would be nice, but we don't need an iron grip over the house in 2018.
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May 26, 2017 03:54
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theflyingorc posted:...are you dumb? Because that's exactly what makes them scarred to vote for things like the ACA Didn't stop 200-something GOP reps from voting for a bill with something like an 18 percent approval rating - and there will be bills that hurt people only marginally less than AHCA would that won't be nearly as well publicized to become so unpopular. A possibility of them being out later is nice but we should stop acting as though them being out now isn't a more preferable option by miles.
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May 26, 2017 03:55
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Ekster posted:POTUS is a rapist, so... convicted
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May 26, 2017 03:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Silver lining here is if gianforte wins due to early voting we get to brand the Republicans as the Choke Slam Party and hopefully drive away people who think reporters shouldn't be assaulted, if there are any of those left. Yeah, at the current moment any Republican strategist worth a drat has to be wishing Quist wins since it would be easy to write off the loss as being Gianforte's fault alone, 1 vote isn't that important, and he's going to become a massive pain in the rear end for them for the next year as Dems look to make him and his legal problems yet another symbol of the GOP.
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May 26, 2017 03:55
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An honest to goodness +10 shift towards the Democrats nationwide would potentially overcome gerrymandering. There are a lot of Republicans gerrymandered into seats with tighter margins.
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May 26, 2017 03:55
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Ekster posted:POTUS is a rapist, so... poo poo we can probably name like, five presidents known to be rapists or proababke rapists off the top of our heads.
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May 26, 2017 03:56
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A +20R seat is going to end up diving down to +5R. This is significant.
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May 26, 2017 03:56
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skylined! posted:this is better than a quist win Eh, arguable. It's possible that anyone who's still voting republican is so far gone that this will just further normalize heinous poo poo and in two years Gianforte will be bragging about standing up to LIBERAL MEDIA. Still, I honestly think it would be the smart move for Republicans in the House to refuse to seat the guy because burning one House seat doesn't matter and it would serve to norrmalize their image and give them a pretextual defense of democracy stance -- sure we support President Pussygrab but we draw the line HERE! (over there, where it doesn't matter). But they aren't smart enough for that, if that's even the smart move after all, I could be wrong, maybe everything's already too feral.
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May 26, 2017 03:56
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i dont agree with the posters saying that all reporters should be choked and punched and hospitalized for asking a normal question in a non-threatening way in a 1 on 1 encounter about potentially the most life-changing bill since the one it is trying to replace and maybe the most potentially life-destroying bill in this history or any other.
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May 26, 2017 03:56
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Trabisnikof posted:An honest to goodness +10 shift towards the Democrats nationwide would potentially overcome gerrymandering. There are a lot of Republicans gerrymandered into seats with tighter margins.
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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STAC Goat posted:Yeah, at the current moment any Republican strategist worth a drat has to be wishing Quist wins since it would be easy to write off the loss as being Gianforte's fault alone, 1 vote isn't that important, and he's going to become a massive pain in the rear end for them for the next year as Dems look to make him and his legal problems yet another symbol of the GOP. I honestly am looking forward to the DC press hounding the guy aggressively and hoping he pops off again. DC cops aren't gonna sweep it under the rug.
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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Al Borland Corp. posted:poo poo we can probably name like, five presidents known to be rapists or proababke rapists off the top of our heads. It's a prerequisite.
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:in two years Gianforte will be bragging about standing up to LIBERAL MEDIA. Isn't he already?
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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Rigel posted:and thats 320 out of 435 seats. 320 is a loving shitton. It would be nice, but we don't need an iron grip over the house in 2018. We don't need it but we, those who are screwed by the gerrymandering and gimmicks of the political alignment deserve to be represented in the numbers we actually exist by.
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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Rigel posted:and thats 320 out of 435 seats. 320 is a loving shitton. It would be nice, but we don't need an iron grip over the house in 2018. We need an iron-grip/wave election in 2020 to redraw the districts to make the republican party a permanent minority party. 
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:A +20R seat is going to end up diving down to +5R. ...in a special election. But yeah, I'm tired of supposed moral victories too. So I understand the gloom in here tonight.
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May 26, 2017 03:57
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