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When Republicans end up winning >50% of congressional seats in 2018 by single digits, people in this thread will be saying "But the GOP should have won some of those seats by like 20% This is great news for Democrats in 2020!!"
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May 26, 2017 04:06
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Rigel posted:We're about halfway in. The political experts are still saying that its too early to say that Quist didn't have a huge election day surge. If he didn't, he's toast obviously. It'd have to be a massive "no one voted for Gianfonte" type surge. Not impossible but highly unlikely. cult member at airport posted:If Republicans end up winning >50% of congressional seats in 2018 by single digits, people in this thread will be saying "But the GOP should have won some of those seats by like 20% This is great news for Democrats in 2020!!" If the Dems fail to take the House in 2018 I will finally say it's okay to now start slitting writs and posting that the world has literally ended, because if the Dems can't manage to take the House in 2018 they'll never manage to.
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May 26, 2017 04:07
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Ein Sexmonster posted:I don't think it's even that high, given that the gerrymander is currently at its least effective. 10+ would be 100%. There were only 16 seats last year that Republicans won by 10% or less. A 10% swing might not be enough.
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May 26, 2017 04:07
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Ein Sexmonster posted:This shift is also very relevant for the senate- A lot of vulnerable dems could be saved by this momentum. Even if we can't take back the senate in 2018, it'd be a huge boon for 2020 and 2022 And think, even if dems don't take back the senate, this momentum could mean they only lose one or two seats which would be an enormous boon in 2028 and 2030.
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May 26, 2017 04:07
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skylined! posted:seat is irrelevant until 2018. What's wrong with you people
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May 26, 2017 04:07
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Quist was never going to win this. Gianforte could have body slammed liberal fake news reporters every day for the last month and would have still won. The margins are what matter in these super Republican seats.
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May 26, 2017 04:08
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cult member at airport posted:If Republicans end up winning >50% of congressional seats in 2018 by single digits, people in this thread will be saying "But the GOP should have won some of those seats by like 20% This is great news for Democrats in 2020!!" No we won't. We'll be drunk and on suicide watch.
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May 26, 2017 04:08
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Spiritus Nox posted:It would help if a Dem could win literally any-loving-thing that matters even a tiny bit This isn't something that matters. And the Dems won two red seats this week, that actually arguably have more consequential worth as they probably have more localized power as state legislators. You're only making yourself feel depressed by this by falsely telling yourself that 1 House seat that has always been red would accomplish anything at all. You're tricking yourself into being depressed.
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May 26, 2017 04:08
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Spiffster posted:ChokeSlam a reporter and get rewarded for it... gently caress everything The guy was a pretty much reprehensible textbook GOP before he decided he wasn't accountable to ANY part of society instead of just vacuuming up capital for it's own sake. The many narratives about this race "He didn't get punished for assaulting someone" isn't really a plausible one, with so many votes already cast and the opposition being un-favored to win anyway.
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May 26, 2017 04:08
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Bill Clinton, Grover Cleveland, Thomas Jefferson, who else? JFK(if the memoirs of one of the interns are true, he made one girl do some poo poo she definitely didn't want to, to friends of his), Grover Cleveland(he counts as two presidents!)
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May 26, 2017 04:08
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Caros posted:In a way, ins't every loss a victory? Holy poo poo it's franscisco maturana 
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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cult member at airport posted:If Republicans end up winning >50% of congressional seats in 2018 by single digits, people in this thread will be saying "But the GOP should have won some of those seats by like 20% This is great news for Democrats in 2020!!" This right here. An almost victory is still a loss. Red seats need to turn Blue and being competitive yet losing is STILL LOSING 
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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axeil posted:Ossoff winning in a shocking landslide will be the final thing we've been building to since KS-03. I still have a bad feeling the GOP is going to manage to win that election in the end, even with Ossoff apparently ahead in some polls lately. The Democrats have to keep the anger at the GOP going and not lose people to outrage fatigue if they have any hopes of pushing a possible 10 point swing in to mattering 18 months from now. 18 months is an eternity for politics and if the GOP can look to be only mildly incompetent and evil, or just really good at getting out the "we're making those people suffer" then they'll make gains in the Senate and maybe keep the House next yet (though probably not). If the Dems don't put a ton of resources in to sweeping State-level races they're just going to get hosed even further via Gerrymandering. Win big in the states, undo as much Gerrymandering as possible ans start passing state level law/amendment stuff to redistrict the way California does and they'll make gains in the House just from that. Add in a ton of expanded voting rights as well as mail in voting to drive up turn out and that can help take back Senate seats too.
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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fknlo posted:Quist was never going to win this. Gianforte could have body slammed liberal fake news reporters every day for the last month and would have still won. The margins are what matter in these super Republican seats. I don't get this. People keep saying that Montana has elected Democratic governors before, why is a House seat supposed to be different? It's the same electorate for both.
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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cult member at airport posted:If Republicans end up winning >50% of congressional seats in 2018 by single digits, people in this thread will be saying "But the GOP should have won some of those seats by like 20% This is great news for Democrats in 2020!!" "The Republicans only won both houses by 1%. 2020 will go great!" "Trump only won by 2% this time! The house and senate only went Republican by 1% again! 2026 wave, here we come!" "The new Republican President lost the popular vote! We have a chance in 2032!"
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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If denying millions of americans healthcare doesn't matter, neither does a bodyslam. Don't expect a late surge.
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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tekz posted:What's wrong with you people you people? HIS NAME IS SETH RICH
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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Spiffster posted:This right here. An almost victory is still a loss. Red seats need to turn Blue and being competitive yet losing is STILL LOSING It's MONTANA
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May 26, 2017 04:09
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cult member at airport posted:If Republicans end up winning >50% of congressional seats in 2018 by single digits, people in this thread will be saying "But the GOP should have won some of those seats by like 20% This is great news for Democrats in 2020!!" This is unironically what's going to happen. America is a one party system now and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Abandon all hope the end is niiiiiiiiigh
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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RuanGacho posted:You should probably consider what the senate looks like if Dems have 320 in the house. Maybe 52 Democrats.
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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Spiffster posted:This right here. An almost victory is still a loss. Red seats need to turn Blue and being competitive yet losing is STILL LOSING No, this is silly. A 5% loss here is good because that points to victory in 2018. Losing in 2018 points to nothing but "we're loving doomed unless we get someone as incredible as Obama to carry us in 2020"
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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Covok posted:And this is what I'm talking about. There is no such thing as a "moral victory" to the out-of-work family of two who just lost their health insurance from the AHCA and, due to the medicaid roll backs, can't afford to keep their eldery parents alive and have to watch them go before their time. All this "numbers" and "it will be fine in 2018" and other self-serving poo poo just serves to piss-off people who know that people will die because we keep losing. Losing is losing in a "winner-take-all" system. If you want people to care or have hope, win. drat you're right people are going to die because they aren't being totally loving myopic dipshits gazing at their navels and complaining that no one's winning anymore kind of reminds me of a speech I heard a while back
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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Rigel posted:No we won't. We'll be drunk and on suicide watch. Yes. If the Dems fail to take the House in 2018 I absolutely believe there are probably posters itt who will try and kill themselves. Trust me, people will not be talking about moral victories at that point. Senate is totally hosed so I'm okay with just treading water (although I'd love to take it) but the Dems must take the House.
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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Fansy posted:If denying millions of americans healthcare doesn't matter, neither does a bodyslam. Don't expect a late surge. Not to say they won't elect the Montana Choke Slamma but denying millions of americans healthcare is kinda starting to matter here and there.
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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Holy poo poo when did the brokebrains invade
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May 26, 2017 04:10
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God Cascade County (Great Falls) going red is depressing. When I was growing up there it was a solid union town with good public schools. Now it's a dying husk that's propped up on a two-legged stool of disability checks and Air Force welfare (Malmstom AFB: No flight mission since the cold war!). So of course they're voting to stick it to the (other) poors.
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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Arist posted:Holy poo poo when did the brokebrains invade They've always been here.
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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Ari Fleisher on Fox News trying to walk that fine line between "assault is never, ever ok" and "the liberal media is fooling themselves into thinking the voters care." This is the boobie prize the Republicans get with Gianforte winning tonight. It also sounds like Fox News is uncertain Gianforte is going to even make an appearance at his campaign celebration.
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:It's MONTANA Montana has a loving democratic governor and senator
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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evilweasel posted:Maybe 52 Democrats. I'll take it.
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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Queering Wheel posted:I don't get this. People keep saying that Montana has elected Democratic governors before, why is a House seat supposed to be different? It's the same electorate for both. It's a special election it's not just any Democratic Governor. Quist really doesn't compare. He's a grassroots candidate.
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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Ein Sexmonster posted:They've always been here. I just meant they've all been popping out of the woodwork in the last few minutes or so
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May 26, 2017 04:12
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BardoTheConsumer posted:This is unironically what's going to happen. America is a one party system now and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Abandon all hope the end is niiiiiiiiigh -Fox News comments circa 2008
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May 26, 2017 04:12
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mango sentinel posted:Not to say they won't elect the Montana Choke Slamma but denying millions of americans healthcare is kinda starting to matter here and there. How long has it been since something mattered? Why do you people keep hope that anything will ever matter?
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May 26, 2017 04:12
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BardoTheConsumer posted:How long has it been since something mattered? Why do you people keep hope that anything will ever matter? Whose rereg are you?
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May 26, 2017 04:12
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I've never been to Montana. I hear they call it BIG SKY country. You ever looked at the sky and thought "gee, that sky sure is big." I have. But I haven't been to Montana.
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May 26, 2017 04:12
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Lumberjack Bonanza posted:drat you're right people are going to die because they aren't being totally loving myopic dipshits gazing at their navels and complaining that no one's winning anymore Yeah you're right sitting around smugly proclaiming "this'll cost them NEXT TIME" over and over and over and over and over again is a proven winning strategy, how could I loving forget
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May 26, 2017 04:13
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:It's MONTANA Your point being? With Trump and the CBO they both should be toxic enough to turn it blue. Dems need a substantial win BAD to shove it in Ryan/Trump's faces. A loss is still a loss
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May 26, 2017 04:13
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Arist posted:I just meant they've all been popping out of the woodwork in the last few minutes or so where else are they going to complain about the death of the republic because an election went about as expected
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May 26, 2017 04:13
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SirPablo posted:I've never been to Montana. I hear they call it BIG SKY country. You ever looked at the sky and thought "gee, that sky sure is big." I have. But I haven't been to Montana. Is it on the East Coast though? 
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May 26, 2017 04:14
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