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Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Amused to Death posted:

Montana has a loving democratic governor and senator

And yet this congressional seat was +20R. Compare apples to apples.

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Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.

Rigel posted:

No, this is silly.

A 5% loss here is good because that points to victory in 2018. Losing in 2018 points to nothing but "we're loving doomed unless we get someone as incredible as Obama to carry us in 2020"

Also, you know Sir Chokes-a-lot has to defend his seat in 2018, right? He gets to do this poo poo again in 6 months with actual governance in this Congress under his belt. Win or lose this is a shiving.

ISeeCuckedPeople
Feb 7, 2017

by Smythe

Ein Sexmonster posted:

Take your meds.

https://open.spotify.com/track/23luOrEVHMfoX0AhfbQuS6

BardoTheConsumer
Apr 6, 2017


I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!


Ein Sexmonster posted:

Whose rereg are you?

I'm everybody's rereg. And mostly joking, the gains actually are pretty real but unless loss of healthcare kills off a few million boomers we are basically hosed as a people. I'd abandon ship but that would be way harder than posting about it.

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches

Arist posted:

I just meant they've all been popping out of the woodwork in the last few minutes or so

Well, we're behind schedule for the show trials, concentration camps, and suspension of constitutional government. People need affirmation.

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011

Spiritus Nox posted:

Yeah you're right sitting around smugly proclaiming "this'll cost them NEXT TIME" over and over and over and over and over again is a proven winning strategy, how could I loving forget
No one is saying that.
The only thing that actually matters in this election is as a barometer of the national mood, in combination with the other special elections. No matter how much you desire real results, those are not possible until 2018.

Arsonist Daria
Feb 27, 2011

Requiescat in pace.

Spiritus Nox posted:

Yeah you're right sitting around smugly proclaiming "this'll cost them NEXT TIME" over and over and over and over and over again is a proven winning strategy, how could I loving forget

I'll tell pelosi next time I see her

mango sentinel
Jan 5, 2001

by sebmojo

Arist posted:

Holy poo poo when did the brokebrains invade
Happens every time there are live election returns.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

538 posted:


We’ve gotten some questions and comments from readers to the effect of: What are you stupid? How can you say a Democrat losing by several percentage points good for the party?

It’s a fair question. At the end of the day, Democrats need to win Republican-held seats to take back the House. But Montana’s seat wouldn’t be a top pickup opportunity. There are 120 Republican-held seats that lean more Democratic on the presidential level than Montana’s. So looking at the Montana race by itself isn’t helpful if you’re interested in the national picture.

Instead, we look at how much better Quist is doing than we’d expect given the presidential lean in Montana. If he loses by say 8 points. It means he outperformed Montana’s default political lean — how it would vote in a presidential election that was tied nationally — by 13 points. There are 64 GOP-held seats that are 13 points redder than the nation as a whole or less. Now, Democrats likely won’t win all 64, but that’s why a mid-single digit loss for a Democrat in Montana suggests that a lot of seats are in play for them in 2018.

So I was wrong and actually if Quist wins it's more like implying the Dems get 340 seats

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Spiffster posted:

Your point being?

With Trump and the CBO they both should be toxic enough to turn it blue. Dems need a substantial win BAD to shove it in Ryan/Trump's faces. A loss is still a loss

Dude, Montana should never have been competitive and the fact that it was should freak the GOP out.

ISeeCuckedPeople
Feb 7, 2017

by Smythe
Nearly 200k votes and that margin is holding steady at 2%....hmm.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Ein Sexmonster posted:

No one is saying that.

There's literally people ITT saying "yeah it's better if Gianforte wins so we can hang it around the GOP's neck" as though Americans aren't just taking it as a signal that beating the poo poo out of uppity reporters is okay now.

CrocodileKingSaysNO
Jul 25, 2007

yeah but fox news comments were based on "it's not our side so it's the end of the world"

instead of "holy poo poo it's literally a scandal a day and oh my god look at the cuts they are making and look at this healthcare bill"

Spiffster
Oct 7, 2009

I'm good... I Haven't slept for a solid 83 hours, but yeah... I'm good...


Lipstick Apathy

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

Also, you know Sir Chokes-a-lot has to defend his seat in 2018, right? He gets to do this poo poo again in 6 months with actual governance in this Congress under his belt. Win or lose this is a shiving.

He also gains incumbent advantage where baring him leaving he's probably staying. Look at Walorski in my district. Hasn't met with us in years and still wins despite being extremely unpopular. Name recognition alone is enough for him now to coast

RuanGacho
Jun 20, 2002

"You're gunna break it!"

Spiffster posted:

Your point being?

With Trump and the CBO they both should be toxic enough to turn it blue. Dems need a substantial win BAD to shove it in Ryan/Trump's faces. A loss is still a loss

I'm not trying to single you out but I feel like you're lacking perspective on what different worlds exist in some of these places. If we are going to win, we need Quist types to keep running and lose and run again and win, and always keep trying, keep talking, keep engaging and becoming the solution. They should be but the the world that the people of Montana live in is not this thread.

Motto
Aug 3, 2013

Caros posted:

In a way, isn't every loss a victory?

Every failure is just a success you haven't had yet

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011

Spiritus Nox posted:

There's literally people ITT saying "yeah it's better if Gianforte wins so we can hang it around the GOP's neck" as though Americans aren't just taking it as a signal that beating the poo poo out of uppity reporters is okay now.
The vast majority of Americans aren't. The rest were already garbage people.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
First they came for the reporters and I dais nothing, for I voted early.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Nearly 200k votes and that margin is holding steady at 2%....hmm.

Can I blame russian hacking yet

skylined!
Apr 6, 2012

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Spiritus Nox posted:

There's literally people ITT saying "yeah it's better if Gianforte wins so we can hang it around the GOP's neck" as though Americans aren't just taking it as a signal that beating the poo poo out of uppity reporters is okay now.

sorry im having trouble on mobile where everything I read from you is dumb and bad

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011


For people who were curious about what this means for the house at large.
If the momentum we've shown in Kansas, New Hampshire, Georgia, and now Montana continues, the dems will win the house.

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Arist posted:

I just meant they've all been popping out of the woodwork in the last few minutes or so

They come poo poo post when bad poo poo happens but then sink into the swamp whenever things don't fit their narrative which is most of the time.

John Wick of Dogs
Mar 4, 2017

A real hellraiser


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

And yet this congressional seat was +20R. Compare apples to apples.

That's what I don't get, it's the exact same electorate. It's an at large state. The exact same set of voters votes for governor, senator, and house.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Spiritus Nox posted:

There's literally people ITT saying "yeah it's better if Gianforte wins so we can hang it around the GOP's neck" as though Americans aren't just taking it as a signal that beating the poo poo out of uppity reporters is okay now.

I said it was a silver lining, not better.

BardoTheConsumer
Apr 6, 2017


I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!


CrocodileKingSaysNO posted:

yeah but fox news comments were based on "it's not our side so it's the end of the world"

instead of "holy poo poo it's literally a scandal a day and oh my god look at the cuts they are making and look at this healthcare bill"

I appreciate the defense but I also don't deserve it. I've been legit sky is falling for months now. But hope springs eternal and I'm almost drunk enough to think that American politics isn't going to be only the republican primary nattering forever.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

I haven't yet gotten to "yep Quist has lost, 100% for sure" just yet, but I'm almost there. This may get called in another hour.

There's a lot of vote still out, but with the current margin, I'm having trouble envisioning what victory would look like.

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

Spiffster posted:

He also gains incumbent advantage where baring him leaving he's probably staying. Look at Walorski in my district. Hasn't met with us in years and still wins despite being extremely unpopular. Name recognition alone is enough for him now to coast

Maybe not after two more years of the Trump clownshow and when people are actually losing their health insurance.

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax
Wait who are the broke brains now? The people who think losing is winning or the people who think losing is losing?

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

Spiritus Nox posted:

There's literally people ITT saying "yeah it's better if Gianforte wins so we can hang it around the GOP's neck" as though Americans aren't just taking it as a signal that beating the poo poo out of uppity reporters is okay now.

Quist seems like a good candidate. Trying to spin him losing to a pile of poo poo as a preferable outcome to actually winning due to some imagined bad optics, as if people give enough of a poo poo about that crap anymore, is beyond grotesque

Arist
Feb 13, 2012

who, me?


TildeATH posted:

Wait who are the broke brains now? The people who think losing is winning or the people who think losing is losing?

if you have to ask

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011

Al Borland Corp. posted:

That's what I don't get, it's the exact same electorate. It's an at large state. The exact same set of voters votes for governor, senator, and house.
Gubneratorial elections are often more about the candidate than the party. There's lots of 'crossover' candidates across the nation.

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

Also, you know Sir Chokes-a-lot has to defend his seat in 2018, right? He gets to do this poo poo again in 6 months with actual governance in this Congress under his belt. Win or lose this is a shiving.

Yeah, that's the sweet part, it's not exactly 6million lost by the DNC for Quist since they've built the base for him a bit. Meanwhile, Dipshit McFlair gets to vote on an absolutely toxic GOP agenda.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo

Rigel posted:

I haven't yet gotten to "yep Quist has lost, 100% for sure" just yet, but I'm almost there. This may get called in another hour.

There's a lot of vote still out, but with the current margin, I'm having trouble envisioning what victory would look like.

DDHQ is reporting election day vote is outstanding so :shrug:

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Arist posted:

if you have to ask

Look I'm just trying to triangulate, baby.

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011

tekz posted:

Quist seems like a good candidate. Trying to spin him losing to a pile of poo poo as a preferable outcome to actually winning due to some imagined bad optics, as if people give enough of a poo poo about that crap anymore, is beyond grotesque
I don't think it's actually preferable, but I don't think it matters.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Spiritus Nox posted:

There's literally people ITT saying "yeah it's better if Gianforte wins so we can hang it around the GOP's neck" as though Americans aren't just taking it as a signal that beating the poo poo out of uppity reporters is okay now.

Actually I believe that was mentioned as a "silver lining." And I called it a "boobie prize."

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!



https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/montana-at-large-congressional-election/

quote:

Update: 5/25/2017 10:39PM
Our map is filling in nicely. Gianforte is running 4-5% ahead of his numbers in the Governor's race last year.
This is good for democrats, actually. :downs:

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Why is this MT special election being held in the first place? Did someone retire or join the Trump admin?

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Al Borland Corp. posted:

That's what I don't get, it's the exact same electorate. It's an at large state. The exact same set of voters votes for governor, senator, and house.

Yeah I am absolutely baffled by it too. Governor I get...sort of. Local state issues can be different from the national environment. I mean, Maryland is one of the bluest states in the nation and it elected a Republican as Governor and he's fairly popular.

Senate is the real :psyduck:

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fsif
Jul 18, 2003

This seat was going to be largely symbolic anyway, but unfortunately, instead of symbolizing "uh oh, maybe we gotta taper back on killing our constituents and our deference to the insane corrupt toddler", it symbolizes "ha! gently caress off, journalists.”

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

And yet this congressional seat was +20R. Compare apples to apples.

Montana only has one congressman in the House. It is apples to apples.

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