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fsif posted:538 is sort of guessing that Quist is going to lose by 5–10 points. Earlier this week, before the CBO score or the choke slam, I think we were hoping for a result that would be too close to call before people on the east coast went to sleep, if not just MAYBE an outright victory. I don't give a poo poo if people cheer but if they could slow down on the drinking and the cutting that'd be lovely.
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May 26, 2017 04:39
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skylined! posted:gearing up in 2020 for that sweet meteor of death The great thing about Giant Meteor is that it doesn't care if it's an electoral year.
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May 26, 2017 04:39
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:State legislature races in NY and NH, IIRC Alright. I'll live.
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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Rigel posted:The number-cruncher nerds haven't called it yet. They still see a narrow path to victory because apparently there's a rural/urban split. The hicks out in the boonies were strongly for Gianforte which is why it looked bad, but he's underperforming the large counties. Its still possible for the large counties to roll in with a big election-day post-slam Quist wave. Yes. This result is very, very strange: https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/867944941548257280 If Flathead County for some reason counted election day faster than everyone else there is still a narrow path. Honestly in an election post-mortem if these margins hold up I wanna know wtf happened in Flathead. It makes no sense.
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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fsif posted:538 is sort of guessing that Quist is going to lose by 5–10 points. Earlier this week, before the CBO score or the choke slam, I think we were hoping for a result that would be too close to call before people on the east coast went to sleep, if not just MAYBE an outright victory. I'm pretty sure that even a near loss was never in the 'likely outcome' territory. Yes, a win would have been amazing, but losing by 5 in Montana is still really good, and the Montana Handshake incident is always going to be on people's minds now. Do not let the Perfect be the enemy of the Good.
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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Rudoku posted:Where? That'll balance out my malaise until GA. NY/Long Island district that went +23 for Trump went +16 for the Dem. They also won a New Hampshire district Trump won by 7. Both are State positions which is why they aren't getting as much attention, but a real argument can be made they're as meaningful as this election and it keeps up the pattern of a left swing. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-win-two-elections_us_59250144e4b0ec129d3082d0
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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theflyingorc posted:In what way? That you can align yourself with a president who's been recorded bragged about raping people and support a bill that will cost hundreds of thousands of lives if even 1 percent of those predicted to lose insurance over the next few years die as a result of its passage and be met with anything other than complete, utter disaster is loving terrifying to me. The trend is not much consolation because we're trending away from an unimaginably hideous place, and that trend could easily stall or even reverse over the next 18 months even without the GOP doing everything in its now considerable power to stack the odds in its own favor.
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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Spiffster posted:Sorry if I'm a bit going to pause shitposting you have something good. go hug your loving kid. you are no good to anyone if you are a weepy loathsome mess. leave this thread and do something to affect positive change. you have a lot more influence on your kid than uh, a politician
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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but I have a lot of poo poo going on in my life right now... financial woes, worrying about what this means for my already lovely health insurance, newborn girls future is looking grimmer by the second. I don't give a drat about my future as much as I do hers and boy howdy seeing all this play out right when she was born is utterly crushing any optimism I had left. Really need something good
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gently caress Gianforte. Why does a guy who assaults reporters get to sit in the house of representatives. gently caress this gay earth.
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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fsif posted:538 is sort of guessing that Quist is going to lose by 5–10 points. Earlier this week, before the CBO score or the choke slam, I think we were hoping for a result that would be too close to call before people on the east coast went to sleep, if not just MAYBE an outright victory. Maybe if another 25 people explain it in plain loving english you'll finally understand
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May 26, 2017 04:40
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Spiffster posted:Sorry if I'm a bit While the situation around this election is saddening, reading 538 describe this cycle as "pre-slam" and "post-slam" will always be funny to me "I remember my pre-slam life..."
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May 26, 2017 04:41
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:...  I too had this reaction 
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May 26, 2017 04:41
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I'm just gonna say this here where it'll get buried but I know Sinclair very, very well and they are extremely evil. Like "might have a secret deal with the Trump admin for favorable news coverage on local channels" evil. Or "hiring ex-Trump staffers as a kickback to the Trump admin so their FCC complaints disappear" axeil fucked around with this message at 04:44 on May 26, 2017 |
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May 26, 2017 04:42
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Spiritus Nox posted:That you can align yourself with a president who's been recorded bragged about raping people and support a bill that will cost hundreds of thousands of lives if even 1 percent of those predicted to lose insurance over the next few years die as a result of its passage and be met with anything other than complete, utter disaster is loving terrifying to me. The trend is not much consolation because we're trending away from an unimaginably hideous place, and that trend could easily stall or even reverse over the next 18 months even without the GOP doing everything in its now considerable power to stack the odds in its own favor.
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May 26, 2017 04:42
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fsif posted:https://twitter.com/yashar/status/867935997715075073 Sinclair is trying to be even more extreme right wing than Fox News. I'm sure this will just be fine in the end! 
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May 26, 2017 04:42
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axeil posted:People said the same thing about Scott Brown winning in MA and then the GOP had the largest single election wave in modern history. This has nothing to do with "things mattering" because that is seriously the dumbest goddamn meme to grace the internet in years. loving of course poo poo matters, but election results themselves don't matter unless you win. The margin of loss is just reflecting underlying sentiment, which is what actually matters and also happens to be something that we knew before today thanks to polling. What I'm saying is that we can predict that the GOP are likely to get their poo poo kicked in 2018 based on Trump's approval numbers alone. The only thing to get excited about in these special elections is a win.
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May 26, 2017 04:43
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Jack Kingston on CNN about the "bodyslam": "We all know these things happen in politics." Also "he was snarky and asking for it." He's being ripped to shreds as anyone who makes this argument will be.
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May 26, 2017 04:43
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Ein Sexmonster posted:The good news is that the Dems have actually won state represenative seats, Georgia is looking good, and these results show that people do care and votes are shifting. There's nothing to do until 2018 but that was always going to be the case. There is hope. Well, I wouldn't say Georgia is "looking good" as in Ossoff has an advantage. It's a dead heat right now.
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May 26, 2017 04:43
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Rudoku posted:Alright. I'll live. Yeah it would be really cool if dems made significant headway in state governments. We had 8 years of a cool democratic president which I think led a lot of people not to care about local stuff. But a lot of unsexy but important day-to-day stuff is governed by state law so it's good to have decent people in charge of it
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May 26, 2017 04:44
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Pakled posted:Well, I wouldn't say Georgia is "looking good" as in Ossoff has an advantage. It's a dead heat right now. The most recent poll had Ossoff up by 7, the one before that by 2. I'd say that's good.
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May 26, 2017 04:44
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Spiffster posted:Sorry if I'm a bit Seriously if you have a kid then that means you've had sex in the past decade or two and I guarantee you're ahead of most posters on that front
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May 26, 2017 04:45
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STAC Goat posted:Jack Kingston on CNN about the "bodyslam": "1 out of 3 politicians bodyslam their reporters every year" - future PSA
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May 26, 2017 04:45
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:Yeah it would be really cool if dems made significant headway in state governments. We had 8 years of a cool democratic president which I think led a lot of people not to care about local stuff. But a lot of unsexy but important day-to-day stuff is governed by state law so it's good to have decent people in charge of it I'm really hopeful we can break the supermajority here in NC and unlock the Governor's veto.
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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Pakled posted:Well, I wouldn't say Georgia is "looking good" as in Ossoff has an advantage. It's a dead heat right now. In the Safe/Likely/Lean category I'd say KS-03 was Likely GOP, MT-AL is Lean GOP and GA-06 is Toss-up trending towards Lean D. Ein Sexmonster posted:The most recent poll had Ossoff up by 7, the one before that by 2. I'd say that's good. caveat: special election polling is weird and special election runoff polling even weirder. Although it looks like the polls got MT-AL right so
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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If no slave is available (loving plebs), perhaps have a friend or two hold your sword stationary, while you run at it with your eyes closed. This skirts the line a bit, but since it is YOUR movement not theirs that plunges the blade in, it still counts as by your own hand, and your friends need not be implicated in manslaughter.
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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axeil posted:I'm just gonna say this here where it'll get buried but I know Sinclair very, very well and they are extremely evil. oh hey look the news conglomerate to fill the void left by Fox News that someone was wondering about. {{{Sinclair is legit scarier than breitfart}}}
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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We will not be able to spin a loss in Georgia. The best we can say is "eh, maybe we can still barely win the house in 2018" If the GOP really is vulnerable for 2018, we really should win that Georgia seat given the quality of candidate we have and the partisan makeup of the district.
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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axeil posted:I'm just gonna say this here where it'll get buried but I know Sinclair very, very well and they are extremely evil. One reason I'm looking to get out of the local TV news biz. I can see Sinclair and Nexstar gunning for Tegna next. Also, if you have solid evidence of the secret deal, leak that poo poo to FTV Live. It's a garbage website run by a garbage ex-reporter, but the dude's one redeeming quality is his burning hatred for Sinclair and he will make a big stink about it.
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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Ein Sexmonster posted:The most recent poll had Ossoff up by 7, the one before that by 2. I'd say that's good. I'm inclined to say that the one that had him up by 7 is an outlier.
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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skylined! posted:going to pause shitposting I would but she just went down so I plan to go to sleep as well now. I have work tomorrow and a three day weekend with my wife and kid so I will do what we can to enjoy that. My baby and my Goony wife truly are the biggest bright spots in my life right now and when my baby smiles and laughs it does make the poo poo going on around me melt away for a bit. Today though I didn't get to see her much due to work and other obligations. Came home to this news and yeah it caused me to crash. I will still resist and still fight for her future but for now I will rest.
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:... He's saying that when you stab conservatives in the stomach, make sure to pierce the bowels so that they're dead from sepsis even if they manage to escape you.. If you have time and opportunity, tear at them with your bare hands to make the wounds deeper and larger.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 26, 2017 04:46
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STAC Goat posted:Jack Kingston on CNN about the "bodyslam": Jack Kingston is on par with shittiness with people like Sean Hannity (who endorsed his Senate race) and Roger Stone.
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May 26, 2017 04:47
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axeil posted:In the Safe/Likely/Lean category I'd say KS-03 was Likely GOP, MT-AL is Lean GOP and GA-06 is Toss-up trending towards Lean D. Yeah, that's a reasonable analysis. Out of this year's crop of Trump appointee special elections, GA-06 has always been the best chance for the Democrats.
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May 26, 2017 04:47
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theflyingorc posted:I'm really hopeful we can break the supermajority here in NC and unlock the Governor's veto. That would be awesome. Sadly I think I'll be out of NC by election time unless I can vote a few months early
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May 26, 2017 04:47
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skylined! posted:oh hey look the news conglomerate to fill the void left by Fox News that someone was wondering about. Their CEO has explicitly said they want to be the next FOX News. I have a source that heard him explicitly saying that to their Board. Ballz posted:One reason I'm looking to get out of the local TV news biz. I can see Sinclair and Nexstar gunning for Tegna next. I have a series of texts and screenshots but no true smoking gun. They are very litigious and it would be very clear who leaked it to me and I would legit worry about their career and safety. axeil fucked around with this message at 04:50 on May 26, 2017 |
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May 26, 2017 04:48
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Nate Silver agrees that there's a strong rural/urban split compared to normal, but Quist is doing so very badly in rural areas, that he doesn't think a post-slam wave will get him to victory.
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May 26, 2017 04:49
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Rigel posted:We will not be able to spin a loss in Georgia. The best we can say is "eh, maybe we can still barely win the house in 2018" Hasn't the DNC been pouring money into that race, unlike in Montana?
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May 26, 2017 04:49
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Spiffster posted:I would but she just went down so I plan to go to sleep as well now. I have work tomorrow and a three day weekend with my wife and kid so I will do what we can to enjoy that. cool man. unsmith the gently caress out of your brain, for all of you.
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May 26, 2017 04:49
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skylined! posted:oh hey look the news conglomerate to fill the void left by Fox News that someone was wondering about. Yes, by a considerable margin. Much more insidious and harder to identify.
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May 26, 2017 04:49
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People still watch local news?!? I mean, hell, olds, but I'm old and to me Sinclair sounds like a plot to set up a conservative rotary phone network
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May 26, 2017 04:50
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