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jabby posted:So we have several polls from the same time period putting the Tory lead between 5 and 12 points. Election night is certainly gonna be interesting. I can't think of a single prediction 'flaps has made where the polar opposite hasn't happened.
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May 27, 2017 18:20
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https://twitter.com/BrianElects/status/868000176140636160
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May 27, 2017 18:21
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blunt posted:I assume that's asking the general public about old people stuff, not asking just old people? Yeah, the first one. I actually think the main reason the social care issue doesn't seem to be cutting through to older people is that the ones who vote/answer polls are convinced they will never need the social care system and don't give a poo poo about the members of their generation who do.
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May 27, 2017 18:21
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jabby posted:So we have several polls from the same time period putting the Tory lead between 5 and 12 points. Election night is certainly gonna be interesting. 29% is still a figure I'm still comfortable with. Do you have one of your own?
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May 27, 2017 18:22
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fridge corn posted:Im my 15 years experience in the industry I can say that this is simply not true You can say that it is not your experience but you can't say it isn't true for others, because I know for a fact that it is.
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May 27, 2017 18:23
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Firos posted:I can't think of a single prediction 'flaps has made where the polar opposite hasn't happened. Political ones on this forum? Trump and Scottish independence. The only one I called wrong was Brexit, along with everyone else in this thread.
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May 27, 2017 18:23
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Pissflaps posted:29% is still a figure I'm still comfortable with. Nah, I didn't start disbelieving the polls when Labour started to recover. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/868518128086593540
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May 27, 2017 18:25
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jabby posted:Nah, I didn't start disbelieving the polls when Labour started to recover. So you're too scared to give one. Unsurprising. I don't disbelieve the polls.
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May 27, 2017 18:25
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Darth Walrus posted:C'mon, man, don't be deliberately stupid. You really can't see why the people who locked him in a cage and set him on fire might bear the lion's share of responsibility for his death? In order to be charged with manslaughter doesn't it have to be shown that the act or whatever resulted in the victims death? How do you prove that in this case? Is there a legal precedent for this?
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May 27, 2017 18:26
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^^^ Not only precedent but a dedicated act of law.cosmically_cosmic posted:I don't mean to dog-pile on you dude, but the article even says "on the evening before his death, George had been pacing around the house, saying "I have to quit, I can't go back there" over and over again." Let's add to that the fact that if the guy had quit, our caring and understanding government would have denied him all benefits because he had left acceptable employment of his own volition. Jedit fucked around with this message at 18:33 on May 27, 2017 |
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May 27, 2017 18:26
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fridge corn posted:In order to be charged with manslaughter doesn't it have to be shown that the act or whatever resulted in the victims death? How do you prove that in this case? Is there a legal precedent for this? https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/dec/15/hatice-can-sentenced-bullying-death
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May 27, 2017 18:27
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Cerv posted:Alternatively it's good that the unrepentant homophobic bully is gone Eh, there's no shortage of homophobic bullies in contemporary football, they are just boring homophobic bullies.
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May 27, 2017 18:29
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Im amazed this is 12% https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/868518412334616577
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May 27, 2017 18:32
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no surprises there, abbott is terrible
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May 27, 2017 18:34
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Since I might aswell, I'll put down a prediction of 36% for labour vote share on the day of the election.
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May 27, 2017 18:34
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Looke posted:no surprises there, abbott is terrible No I think pissflaps is amazed even 12% of people would think abbott would be good, which is fair enough.
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May 27, 2017 18:36
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For the goon that inevitably sets up the google spreadsheet to track these I'd suggest we just record labour vote percentage and Tory majority. Just to keep things simple.
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May 27, 2017 18:37
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Pissflaps posted:Political ones on this forum? Trump and Scottish independence.
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May 27, 2017 18:37
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Benjamin Arthur posted:I wasn't. I'm stunned that I can't remember what your thoughts on the subject were.
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May 27, 2017 18:39
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I think the convicted having been present at the victims death (from the article it sounds like she climbed into a window and they told her to jump so she did?) makes this case not entirely comparable to the one we've been discussing
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May 27, 2017 18:40
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amber rudd's percentages will also be buoyed by the fact that her saying the average house price in her constituency was £100k when it's actually over £200k never became a meme like abbot, for some strange reason
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May 27, 2017 18:43
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fridge corn posted:I think the convicted having been present at the victims death (from the article it sounds like she climbed into a window and they told her to jump so she did?) makes this case not entirely comparable to the one we've been discussing No it doesn't.
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May 27, 2017 18:44
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After an election in which the opposition becomes the party of government, is the convention for all the shadow cabinet to just become the cabinet with their same assigned briefs?
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May 27, 2017 18:46
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Rakosi posted:You can say that it is not your experience but you can't say it isn't true for others, because I know for a fact that it is. So do our anecdotal evidences cancel each other out or what? I'm not suggesting that bullying doesn't occur at all in my industry, but perhaps it is not as rife as you were suggesting. Certainly not as rife as in any other industry and to claim otherwise seems to suggest some sort of bias or prejudice on your part
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May 27, 2017 18:46
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thehappyprince posted:amber rudd's percentages will also be buoyed by the fact that her saying the average house price in her constituency was £100k when it's actually over £200k never became a meme like abbot, for some strange reason or people just don't know who she is
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May 27, 2017 18:47
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Halisnacks posted:After an election in which the opposition becomes the party of government, is the convention for all the shadow cabinet to just become the cabinet with their same assigned briefs? If there's no cabinet shuffle, then yes.
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May 27, 2017 18:49
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fridge corn posted:So do our anecdotal evidences cancel each other out or what? I'm not suggesting that bullying doesn't occur at all in my industry, but perhaps it is not as rife as you were suggesting. Certainly not as rife as in any other industry and to claim otherwise seems to suggest some sort of bias or prejudice on your part I don't know, how many industries are you claiming to be an expert in here?
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May 27, 2017 18:49
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Pissflaps posted:I'm stunned that I can't remember what your thoughts on the subject were. EU bad thing
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May 27, 2017 18:51
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I expected the polls to narrow over the course of the campaign but I had no real hope last month that we'd really be able to avert a landslide. Of course, hope is always a lie but still.. Of all the hollywood actors who could have come over to support JC, we have the greatest 
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May 27, 2017 18:52
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Pissflaps posted:For the goon that inevitably sets up the google spreadsheet to track these I'd suggest we just record labour vote percentage and Tory majority. Just to keep things simple. And how many MP's will the Lib Dem's have.
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May 27, 2017 18:52
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IIRC, every party/referendum I have voted for has 'won' in some way (Nick Clegg). Now I'm going to gamble on labour and their lovely leader, so...fridge corn posted:So do our anecdotal evidences cancel each other out or what? I'm not suggesting that bullying doesn't occur at all in my industry, but perhaps it is not as rife as you were suggesting. Certainly not as rife as in any other industry and to claim otherwise seems to suggest some sort of bias or prejudice on your part Yeah, I can agree with you that it isn't ubiquitous but I disagree that it's as likely to happen in these industries as anywhere else. I mean, the only industry I can compare to construction/mechanics in the way they treat young hires is finances. These are industries which are infamous for their bullying of young/new hires. What many on a building site consider banter would get you sacked if you pulled the same stunt in even a MacDonalds.
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May 27, 2017 18:52
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forkboy84 posted:Well yes, that's clear. I'm not sure it's working though. I think people are waiting to hear something positive from them. I think it'll work, he did support the IRA for decades, it's kinda of an open goal for them.
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May 27, 2017 18:53
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From two weeks ago when the polls started moving I've got £4 bets on Labour at 250-299 seats (55/1), and Tories on majority of 1-24 seats (33/1). Feeling pretty good about them.
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May 27, 2017 18:54
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Reckon the final weeks of the campaign should be about destroying the myth that May would be any good at handling Brexit negotiations. It's the only thing keeping her numbers in the mid 40%.
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May 27, 2017 18:58
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AP posted:I think it'll work, he did support the IRA for decades, it's kinda of an open goal for them. No he didn't.
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May 27, 2017 18:59
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Rakosi posted:The way young men are treated in these industries is loving atrocious. Every single one of my friends who work in construction/mechanics has gone through some period/kind of hazing at the hands of the 'lads' who've worked on the site/firm for longer. These kind of jobs are infected with "old boys" cliques. I'm getting married in a week and my future brother-in-law just turned 20 and is, because of his age, on half the pay of the skinny alcoholics that make up the majority of the scaffolders he works with, despite being able and willing to do four times the work they can. I've worked on building sites and come in for some 'banter' and have to be honest I didn't really mind it. But it was nothing like what that poor boy went through pretty shameful.
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May 27, 2017 18:59
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AP posted:I think it'll work, he did support the IRA for decades, it's kinda of an open goal for them. A) He didn't B) If it is working then why has their lead shrunk so dramatically? They were on track for a majority of over 100 at one point going by the polling, now it's looking likely it'll stay roughly the same. So if it is an open goal they somehow seem to be missing the target completely.
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May 27, 2017 19:01
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Gonzo McFee posted:Reckon the final weeks of the campaign should be about destroying the myth that May would be any good at handling Brexit negotiations. It's the only thing keeping her numbers in the mid 40%. I think Corbyn would poll better if he got across a message that he is not going to let EU politicians punish Britain for a democratic decision. There is a lot of room for Corbyn to show he can be tough and firm on some issues, and this is one he appears weakest on; he is seen as totally flacid by many Tory voters.
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May 27, 2017 19:11
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https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/868493250142887936 Well I'm sold
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May 27, 2017 19:15
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Spread this around and you'll have a 70% Labour majority faster than you can say "votin' for the footy"
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May 27, 2017 19:16
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