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verbal enema
May 23, 2009

onlymarfans.com
50 bucks on Cleveland

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Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

jase1 posted:

I put 10k on cavs to win at the beginning of the year @+400 I also put 1k on the cavs sweeping at +2500 (even though it will never happen those odds are worth it).

Cavs will win this series in 6.

i'm gonna need see the ticket to believe this cause that last one is just straight dumb

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
The warriors will lose because they have a coach that plays bad players major minutes while Ty Lue doesn't. Warriors aren't good enough to spot 20 points every game.

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch

Metapod posted:

i'm gonna need see the ticket to believe this cause that last one is just straight dumb

jase1 is Something Awful's resident gambler. He's for real. The MMA betting thread is named after him

E2M2
Mar 2, 2007

Ain't No Thang.
Man the playoffs last year were way better

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-USrOy-aCmQ

milk milk lemonade
Jul 29, 2016

The B_36 posted:

Last year's collapse in the Finals was a level of shookness an order of magnitude higher than what would be required for them to lose this year. Them losing this year is a big upset, last year was an historic collapse. By my estimation, the Cavs have the best player in the series, and the 5th and 6th best (maybe the 4th and 6th best, Kyrie is playing real good), so the talent level is closer than you might think.

I think that's accurate, the real problem for the Cavs is KD and Curry are both loving incredible and they're going to need LeBron to play KD as well as he usually does or better.

I'm all seriousness even as a huge Cavs fan their defense is so incredibly atrocious I'm not sure they have more than a punchers chance. The Warriors have so many good shooters and playmakers, and I don't think the Cavs don't have enough defenders to account for them.

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

Shear Modulus posted:

i think cool buff man was saying 538/Nate Silver gave the Cavs no shot last year, not you

NATE SILVER: Warriors have a 69% chance to win the NBA Finals
http://www.businessinsider.com/nba-finals-nate-silver-warriors-2016-5

That's 31% for the Cavaliers.

Noctone posted:

It pains me to say it but I'll reiterate my opinion that the Cavs will do well just to make it a gentlemen's sweep. Maybe they steal a second game somewhere and take it to six. Barring an unexpected injury, of course. Or Golden State coming down with an historic case of the shookness.

What makes it interesting is that CLE has been dominating nearly as much as GSW this post-season. Playoff average MOV in the last sixty years:

code:
MOV/G	Tm	Season
16.3	GSW	2016-17
14.5	MIL	1970-71
13.6	CLE	2016-17
12.7	LAL	2000-01
11.7	CHI	1990-91
11.6	BOS	1960-61
11.3	LAL	1986-87
10.7	NYA	1973-74
10.5	CHI	1995-96
10.3	BOS	1985-86
10.1	LAL	1984-85
Yea, the west is tougher but it's not like there haven't been other weak playoff conferences other years.

E2M2
Mar 2, 2007

Ain't No Thang.

Zogo posted:

NATE SILVER: Warriors have a 69% chance to win the NBA Finals
http://www.businessinsider.com/nba-finals-nate-silver-warriors-2016-5

That's 31% for the Cavaliers.


Nate Silver is like the Madden curse since predicting Obama like 8 years ago

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Cool Buff Man posted:

jase1 is Something Awful's resident gambler. He's for real. The MMA betting thread is named after him

jesus why jase why did you make the sweep bet

E2M2 posted:

Man the playoffs last year were way better

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-USrOy-aCmQ

game 2 of durant's warrior tenure

Brolander
Oct 20, 2008

i am but a vessel

Zogo posted:

NATE SILVER: Warriors have a 69% chance to win the NBA Finals


That's 31% for the Cavaliers.


drat, you are a numbers guy



jase do another pool thread

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Zogo posted:

NATE SILVER: Warriors have a 69% chance to win the NBA Finals
http://www.businessinsider.com/nba-finals-nate-silver-warriors-2016-5

That's 31% for the Cavaliers.

i guess it makes sense that cool buff man saw "69" and his brain automatically remembered it as "0% chance"

jase1
Aug 11, 2004

Flankensttein: A name given to a FPS gamer who constantly flanks to get kills.

"So I was playing COD yesterday, and some flankenstein came up from behind and shot me."

Metapod posted:

jesus why jase why did you make the sweep bet


game 2 of durant's warrior tenure

Because I was up a shitload of money from betting on MMA. It's hard to explain but I make longshot bets all the time but for smaller units than my normal bets.

Jota
May 6, 2003

uga-booga uga-booga

Cool Buff Man posted:

jase1 is Something Awful's resident gambler. He's for real. The MMA betting thread is named after him

Yeah do not doubt jase1 and the amount he gambles.

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch

Shear Modulus posted:

i guess it makes sense that cool buff man saw "69" and his brain automatically remembered it as "0% chance"

There is 0% chance that happened.

Noctone
Oct 25, 2005

XO til we overdose..

Cool Buff Man posted:

There is 69% chance that happened.

fixed that for the timeline where you steered into the skid

hitze
Aug 28, 2007
Give me a dollar. No, the twenty. This is gonna blow your mind...

cavs in three god drat it

Noctone
Oct 25, 2005

XO til we overdose..

milk milk lemonade posted:

I think that's accurate, the real problem for the Cavs is KD and Curry are both loving incredible and they're going to need LeBron to play KD as well as he usually does or better.

I'm all seriousness even as a huge Cavs fan their defense is so incredibly atrocious I'm not sure they have more than a punchers chance. The Warriors have so many good shooters and playmakers, and I don't think the Cavs don't have enough defenders to account for them.

yeah that's where I come from on it, LeBron/Kyrie/Love might be able to keep up with GSW's stars but I don't see their bench D not getting eaten alive. Only way they have a chance is if it's a bunch of games like game 5 of the ECF where even though Boston scored a C-note they still got blown out because the Cavs balled out of control on offense

verbal enema
May 23, 2009

onlymarfans.com
Man i gotta go to that Cavs parade if they win again

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch

Noctone posted:

yeah that's where I come from on it, LeBron/Kyrie/Love might be able to keep up with GSW's stars but I don't see their bench D not getting eaten alive. Only way they have a chance is if it's a bunch of games like game 5 of the ECF where even though Boston scored a C-note they still got blown out because the Cavs balled out of control on offense

I imagine if Boston sans Isaiah could score 100+ on Cleveland that Golden State is going to hit the 150 mark. I hope Lebron scores 75 a game and holds them at bay.

What's the finals with the highest point total? I'm sure this one is going to come close

milk milk lemonade
Jul 29, 2016
Sometimes when Korver is supposed to switch he puts his head down and arms at his side like Naruto and just runs in a random direction. The Cavs get lost on switches constantly and leave people open on what seems like every posession. They really have a hard time locking down the paint.

They also bomb the poo poo out of teams from 3, so maybeeeeeeeee

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Cool Buff Man posted:

I imagine if Boston sans Isaiah could score 100+ on Cleveland that Golden State is going to hit the 150 mark. I hope Lebron scores 75 a game and holds them at bay.

What's the finals with the highest point total? I'm sure this one is going to come close

http://www.nba.com/history/records/finals_game_points.html

Looks like the record is 141 - 135 set in 1967

BWV
Feb 24, 2005


I really want the Cavs to win but I selected the Warriors in the bracket and I think I'll win it if they win. A win win win situation (the third win is for us all because the NBA is the best )

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

It's going to be sad to see cle lose but they probably will.

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
Why would Korver play in the finals? Just play Lebron/Irving/Love 42 minutes and split the wing between JR Smith, Shump, and Richard Jefferson. You don't need that much shooting, especially with Iggy effectively out of the series.

Time
Aug 1, 2011

It Was All A Dream

Cool Buff Man posted:

I imagine if Boston sans Isaiah could score 100+ on Cleveland that Golden State is going to hit the 150 mark. I hope Lebron scores 75 a game and holds them at bay.

What's the finals with the highest point total? I'm sure this one is going to come close

It's going to have to go to 7 games for that to happen and as much as I want it to be as good as last year, it won't be

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch

I think that record is in jeopardy and I'm very excited for it.

Time posted:

It's going to have to go to 7 games for that to happen and as much as I want it to be as good as last year, it won't be

It's gonna go 7! Zogo has me convinced that this is all rigged!

Time
Aug 1, 2011

It Was All A Dream

Cool Buff Man posted:

I think that record is in jeopardy and I'm very excited for it.


It's gonna go 7!

god bless you and I hope you're right

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Tae posted:

Why would Korver play in the finals? Just play Lebron/Irving/Love 42 minutes and split the wing between JR Smith, Shump, and Richard Jefferson. You don't need that much shooting, especially with Iggy effectively out of the series.

Because then you're playing last year's team but older and worse, which required every minute of a seven game series to beat a worse version of GSW with their second best player missing a game. Cleveland has better depth, Korver and Williams will need to score on the GSW bench if they are going to win. Iman Shumpert is poop btw and Jefferson hasn't been much better this year

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Tae posted:

Why would Korver play in the finals? Just play Lebron/Irving/Love 42 minutes and split the wing between JR Smith, Shump, and Richard Jefferson. You don't need that much shooting, especially with Iggy effectively out of the series.

Korver is no worse than Jefferson on defence and is better offensively. He has been shooting 48% from three since joining the Cavs for christs sake.

Also teams respect his shooting a lot so he helps stretch the floor in their half court offense.

verbal enema
May 23, 2009

onlymarfans.com
Watch your mouth about Shumpert

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


verbal enema posted:

Watch your mouth about Shumpert

You watch my mouth as it forms the words "he is trash, he sucks, he's a liability and will be regularly embarrassed if he plays" about Shumpert

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

by Reene

milk milk lemonade posted:

Their elo ratings are just dumb. Their player comparison models are horrific. I've never seen a single piece of basketball anything on that site that wasn't a waste of time to read. All their stuff is like cut rate Goldsberry or Lowe because they don't even really understand what they're measuring.

:hf:

I'm a math dude so I get friends coming at a fair bit me going "HEY MAN YOU SEE THE LASTEST 538 MODEL AND IT'S BOLD [dumb] predictions" and it's just like....no, please.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
They should just start early and play a best of 9 series

verbal enema
May 23, 2009

onlymarfans.com
gently caress you!!!

https://twitter.com/cavs/status/867187376967176193?s=09

Ghost Dog
Aug 17, 2016

shump was horrendous in last years finals but still got a lot of minutes. also they won, and wins are the greatest stat

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Ghost Dog posted:

shump was horrendous in last years finals but still got a lot of minutes. also they won, and wins are the greatest stat

I'm afraid it's rings.

verbal enema
May 23, 2009

onlymarfans.com

zoux posted:

I'm afraid it's rings.

Oh my goodness is it terminal

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


attackmole posted:

:hf:

I'm a math dude so I get friends coming at a fair bit me going "HEY MAN YOU SEE THE LASTEST 538 MODEL AND IT'S BOLD [dumb] predictions" and it's just like....no, please.

Your math friends should get better at math IMO

E2M2
Mar 2, 2007

Ain't No Thang.

milk milk lemonade posted:

Sometimes when Korver is supposed to switch he puts his head down and arms at his side like Naruto and just runs in a random direction. The Cavs get lost on switches constantly and leave people open on what seems like every posession. They really have a hard time locking down the paint.

They also bomb the poo poo out of teams from 3, so maybeeeeeeeee

Pretty sure its 50/50. Like either they beat us like the Mavs did the Heat that one year or they get swept or something and everyone is like "I told you so"

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Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
watching Yao highlights forgot how funny it was watching him swat shots away

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