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Pissflaps posted:Is this a consequence of Livingstone or has the Jewish community always been naturally Tory-leaning? From the article quote:
So assuming that the polls are as off now as they were in 2015 then there is a drop but not really a massive one. If the polls are actually more accurate now then it'll be almost the same percentage as who voted for Labour when Ed Miliband was in charge.
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May 30, 2017 09:47
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DesperateDan posted:Tories have already been quietly saying if she returns less than a 70-80 seat majority the knives are out- I don't think she's gonna manage it, and fptp is such a weird beast as to be make projections near loving useless anyway. Yeah, FPTP with so many parties in so many local elections makes things weird and ugly. See also: The 2015 elections, where Tories getting about a third of the popular vote overall gave them a majority of seats, for a highly relevant example. I'm kind of hoping for things to go weird like that again this time, except in Labour's favor. Not necessarily an outright majority, but a plurality or a coalition majority, or at least significant gains. But, yeah, between FPTP being a disaster and May's crumbling after the Tories pinned basically everything on her, I don't know how she'd manage that big of a majority. That seems like a ludicrous expectation under ideal circumstances, really. Is that just an excuse to go after her or something?
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May 30, 2017 09:47
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Pissflaps posted:Is this a consequence of Livingstone or has the Jewish community always been naturally Tory-leaning? Well obviously the people who secretly own all the banks and the media and control the state are going to be in favour of the party of big business! (they've historically been pretty right wing in the UK - Disraeli was a Tory - because they've tended to be fairly wealthy "natural" Tory voters and the poor Jews have tended to be Orthodox who are the most right-wing Jews in every community I know of. Jewish people were twice as likely to vote Conservative in 2010 as the non-Jewish equivalent cohort though I don't know about 2015)
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May 30, 2017 09:48
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Pissflaps posted:Is this a consequence of Livingstone or has the Jewish community always been naturally Tory-leaning? The split last election was something like 66% to 17%, and labour had a Jewish leader who the tory tabloids were making subtle anti-semetic jibes about. I think it's just a community that labour has a hard time with.
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May 30, 2017 09:48
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Does anyone have the Flash Corbbyn image handy? Had a quick google, but wouldn't find it.
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May 30, 2017 09:48
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WeAreTheRomans posted:This is devastatingly good in terms of tone and content. Shame that HRC couldn't have mustered something this simplistic yet effective in the townhall against Trump That's because Hillary didn't have any good policies, and could only define herself by who she was not. This is one of the reasons why neoliberalism is breaking down - it doesn't actually have any solutions to societies problems, and people don't actually like neoliberalism when you try to sell it to them. We are in such a better state than America because we actually have opposition parties willing to stand up to the government and offer meaningful choices, as opposed to the democrats and Tom "Radical Centrism" Perez.
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May 30, 2017 09:54
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I wouldn't say that's fair to Perez. Dude has been slam dunking the Republicans from the left and even got them crying about him being so meaaaan.
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May 30, 2017 09:59
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"you didn't build that" did not have a good reception when Obama said it; it is very easy to flub the wording it is a mistake to presume that there is some given N E O L I B E R A L I S M that people dislike, I think. the rights discourse so peculiar to neoliberalism - its curious inheritance from the New Left - is very popular! People like the idea that people very much like themselves have rights to various things. They don't like the idea that people unlike themselves might have rights to claims on people like themselves, however. ronya fucked around with this message at 10:07 on May 30, 2017 |
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May 30, 2017 10:02
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Pissflaps posted:Is this a consequence of Livingstone or has the Jewish community always been naturally Tory-leaning? Seems to be a natural Tory lean: "Asked this week, 14 per cent of British Jews said they had gone ahead and voted for the party two years ago, with the Tories receiving 67 per cent of the community’s votes." 2015 being pre Livingstone. Probably didn't help to have John Mann publicly branding party figures as antisemitic at any given opportunity though. Earlier election data would be interesting. I wonder if this is linked more to traditional left/ right attitudes to Israel than the current Labour leadership? That said, apparently 54% of those who said they wouldn't vote Labour would be 'more likely to' if Corbyn wasn't in charge, as if that is in any way quantifiable. Complex picture no doubt.
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May 30, 2017 10:07
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Plank Sanction posted:I wonder if this is linked more to traditional left/ right attitudes to Israel than the current Labour leadership? That said, apparently 54% of those who said they wouldn't vote Labour would be 'more likely to' if Corbyn wasn't in charge, as if that is in any way quantifiable. Complex picture no doubt. This just in 30% of British Jews would be more likely to vote Labour if Ken Livingstone was in charge. Or if they gave Blair another shot. Or resurrected Hitler himself. Or maybe coming at the question of the leader from who they shouldn't be without offering an alternative is, and always has been, useless.
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May 30, 2017 10:12
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The assumptions that Jews should vote on the basis of their Jewishness or should vote left are both faulty. Having said that, Israel is an increasingly important issue for European Jews of many nationalities, in light of the growth of anti-semitism in Europe in recent times, and the polls I remember reading attributed the broad support for Conservatives, by British Jews, to Conservative support for Israel, despite the fact that British-Jewish support for Israeli policy is not great.
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May 30, 2017 10:15
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hookerbot 5000 posted:From the article Also, the sample size was 515 so this isn't even a statistically significant shift. I'd also question how easy it really is to get a "representative sample" of such a niche group that accounts for under 0.005% of the UK population. It seems to me that most of the attempts to smear Labour as antisemitic are targeted at middle class white people and not British Jews. Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 10:18 on May 30, 2017 |
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May 30, 2017 10:15
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In my experience, support for Israel is as big an issue for British Jews as brexit, and they dislike anybody who doesn't give 100% support to Israel and their Arab-killing policies. British Jews are, mostly, to the left of Israeli Jews, but still view any odd who doesn't support Israel with suspicion of antisemitism
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May 30, 2017 10:17
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lol https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/869481724346081280
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May 30, 2017 10:22
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Hope 2 c some heckling against these craven little shits.
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May 30, 2017 10:24
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I think historically the British Jewish vote (in so much it exists) started drifting conservative under Thatcher, finchley after all, and drifted back and forth under Blair but shifted more towards conservative under Howard and successive leaders
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May 30, 2017 10:25
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Interesting that both British Jews and the fascists that hate them have a hardon for conservatives.
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May 30, 2017 10:29
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IIRC that building in the background used to have the most ridiculously expensive furniture in Perth and I think it went under recently; if only the tories pushed for a set of policies that ultimately increased consumer money-in-pocket perhaps it could have survived, but now it's gonna be a Gregg's or a betting shop
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May 30, 2017 10:31
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Miftan posted:In my experience, support for Israel is as big an issue for British Jews as brexit, and they dislike anybody who doesn't give 100% support to Israel and their Arab-killing policies. British Jews are, mostly, to the left of Israeli Jews, but still view any odd who doesn't support Israel with suspicion of antisemitism Speaking as an American Jew living in this country for 11 years: go gently caress yourself I've yet to meet a Jew here or in America who gives '100% support to Israel and their Arab-killing policies', but I've met plenty who feel poo poo on by Labour or the trade-union movement for believing that Israel policy is bad but that Israel should not be wiped off the map. And I don't blame them, in my years of active trade-union work I've been told poo poo like: 'your opinion on I/P doesn't count because your surname is [obvious Jewish surname]', or 'hi I'm from the SWP, let me tell you my extensive theories of a global Jewish conspiracy' or 'oh you're Jewish? how does it feel supporting a country that's exactly like Hitler's Germany??' I believe in the left and will never abandon my principles because of these idiots, but holy poo poo do you assholes make it difficult sometimes. I work hard for this movement, please don't treat me like garbage because of my background, thanks.
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May 30, 2017 10:31
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mehall posted:Does anyone have the Flash Corbbyn image handy? Yes.
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May 30, 2017 10:32
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thorsilver posted:Speaking as an American Jew living in this country for 11 years: go gently caress yourself Miftan's an Israeli Jew iirc
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May 30, 2017 10:43
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thorsilver posted:Speaking as an American Jew living in this country for 11 years: go gently caress yourself Let's not open up I/P here though. Do you feel like the reasons you listed are the reasons that the British Jews back the tories? If anything, again only in my experience, it's that a) the tories will support Israel basically no matter what and b) they tend to be either well off and so like tory policies regardless of being Jewish, or ultra orthodox and so not really give a poo poo. I don't know enough about the haredi community here to say if they'd turn out and vote for a party that promises more child benefits, etc. like in israel.
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May 30, 2017 10:45
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Also, the sample size was 515 so this isn't even a statistically significant shift. I'd also question how easy it really is to get a "representative sample" of such a niche group that accounts for under 0.005% of the UK population. It seems to me that most of the attempts to smear Labour as antisemitic are targeted at middle class white people and not British Jews. A good sample size is generally considered to be a thousand people. Five hundred for a small section of the population like British Jews could be better, but isn't all that bad.
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May 30, 2017 10:46
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Maybe Jews are capable of different opinions about things too. I learn a lot here in ukmt.
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May 30, 2017 10:55
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forkboy84 posted:It's probably not helped by Livingstone's idiocy, but if you had to point to one reason then you'd look at fact that Corbyn opposes Zionism first of all. Didn't Corbyn call hamas his friends? They are a terrorist group that kills Jews and wants to destroy the Jewish state. That kind of thing stains leftism, and it ain't just Corbyn either, it's a disgrace spread all around Europe and even the US. hakimashou fucked around with this message at 11:03 on May 30, 2017 |
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May 30, 2017 10:58
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Its hard to make any controls for social class or income bracket to see how disproportionate conservative support is. And the relative growth of the haredi community in recent decades probably skews voting patterns a bit
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May 30, 2017 10:59
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hakimashou posted:wants to destroy the Jewish state. Hey, that's actually not in their charter anymore, also, get bent you genocide apologist.
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May 30, 2017 10:59
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hakimashou posted:Didn't Corbyn call hamas his friends? They are a terrorist group that kills Jews and wants to destroy the Jewish state. This was brought up in the Paxman interview last night. Corbyn repeatedly stated (and was ignored by Paxman) that this was an inclusive piece of language, used to start off a meeting of a group of people with varying views.
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May 30, 2017 10:59
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Darth Walrus posted:A good sample size is generally considered to be a thousand people. Five hundred for a small section of the population like British Jews could be better, but isn't all that bad. Given a Jewish population of 270,000, it's a margin of error of 4%.
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May 30, 2017 11:00
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Pissflaps posted:Given a Jewish population of 270,000, it's a margin of error of 4%. If you have a completely random sample
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May 30, 2017 11:01
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mehall posted:This was brought up in the Paxman interview last night. I think people know where he and people like him stand on the "Israel question." It's not any one thing and it's not just him. European leftism has had this ugly streak for a long time, and it's certainly been there longer than 'leftism' has been a thing.
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May 30, 2017 11:09
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Namtab posted:Maybe Jews are capable of different opinions about things too. I learn a lot here in ukmt. Every day's a school day in this, the best thread on the forums.
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May 30, 2017 11:09
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Miftan posted:I'm sorry I offended you, I did say that it was my experience, and it consists mostly of the Golders green community. I'm an Israel Jew myself and I've never heard criticism of Israel out of British Jews that didn't end with 'but at the end of the day, the most important thing is that the Jewish state is preserved' which I find disgusting. I'm glad your experiences are to the contrary. There was no offense meant. No problem, I'm sorry I went off a bit there -- I'm very touchy about this stuff because I get a lot of poo poo due to my background, even though I've worked my arse off for the trade-union movement (as in: 4 years as branch president, presiding over the biggest strike turnouts we'd had in ten years, and two years of contract negotiations so stressful I now have permanent health problems). It's close to my heart and it's been quite painful so I tend to react aggressively. To be honest I suspect my experiences and yours taken individually probably aren't representative -- in my case, most Jewish people I've met have been via the trade union work, both some reps and people I was hoping to recruit as members, and there I've heard things like people being afraid to talk about their heritage because of the anger about Palestine, and recently the Livingstone stuff didn't go over well. Most of these people are academics like me, so while a few were profs and thus well off, there probably is a general leftward shift there. Got some more to say on this but being kicked out of my hotel now -- keen to pick this up later after my meetings.
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May 30, 2017 11:11
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There are plenty of good leftist reasons to think Israel is poo poo, not just antisemitic ones. This isn't i/p though and we've already established that some of them will want no criticism of Israel, so unless you want to contribute other reasons as to why British Jews vote for the tories, please gently caress off.
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May 30, 2017 11:12
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Viewing figures for last night Channel 4 (inc +1): 2.79m (12.4%) [Channel 4 (exc +1): 2.52m (11.2%)] Sky News: 415k (1.8%) Those are average viewing figures not peak IIRC. About a third of the figures for BGT, for reference.
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May 30, 2017 11:13
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I can't get enough of are Dan
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Pissflaps posted:Given a Jewish population of 270,000, it's a margin of error of 4%. That would suggest it's extremely unclear whether the Jewish vote has changed since 2015, seeing as 17% to 14% is within that margin of error.
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May 30, 2017 11:14
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thorsilver posted:No problem, I'm sorry I went off a bit there -- I'm very touchy about this stuff because I get a lot of poo poo due to my background, even though I've worked my arse off for the trade-union movement (as in: 4 years as branch president, presiding over the biggest strike turnouts we'd had in ten years, and two years of contract negotiations so stressful I now have permanent health problems). It's close to my heart and it's been quite painful so I tend to react aggressively. I am actually on holiday in Israel seeing my family at the moment, so I don't have a ton of free time. Will you drop me an email at imiftan at Gmail? I'm pretty keen to talk to you some more about several things.
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May 30, 2017 11:14
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british chinese outnumber british jews by nearly 2:1 and voted tory in a landslide too. non-muslim british indians outnumber both and also went tory in 2015, albeit by a smaller margin the british jewish vote just doesn't actually matter that much electorally; this is not new york city. what matters is the staggering size of the muslim british asian vote, for which accusations and drama about anti-semitism is merely a proxy
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May 30, 2017 11:15
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How many streamed it? Also, apparently J-Corb just suffered a case of the forgotten figures on Women's Hour. Started to look them up on his iPad. How hard is it to have key information about the policy you're on to promote written on a bit of paper as an aide memoire?
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May 30, 2017 11:16
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hakimashou posted:I think people know where he and people like him stand on the "Israel question." It's not any one thing and it's not just him. European leftism has had this ugly streak for a long time, and it's certainly been there longer than 'leftism' has been a thing. I'd potentially classify myself as someone "like him", and my stance on the "Israel question" is that they were handed a piece of land that I'm not certain they should have had. However, now that they have it, it's clear that Palestine are also owed the space they have been handed. There needs to be a consensus around ensuring some stability for all sides. The continued division and pushing back of Palestinian state cannot continue, because why would it stop at the borders? What stops it continuing unabated into surrounding territories, supported by American goodwill. So I'm sorry if the "leftist" answer to the "Israel question" is to argue that the other people already living there are also owed a place to live.
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May 30, 2017 11:16
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