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If Trump finds out he can use executive privilege to stop Comey testifying, he will absolutely try it. It'll piss off Congress something fierce, but I fully expect John McCain to just be "deeply disturbed" or "very troubled" or whatever the hell he is these days.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:38
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Alter Ego posted:Actually, all the polling has the race either tied or with Ossoff slightly ahead. There's that big-rear end SurveyUSA outlier that puts him up 7, but I don't think it'll be that big. I think he wins by 2-3 points. We've heard this story before.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:40
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Alter Ego posted:If Trump finds out he can use executive privilege to stop Comey testifying, he will absolutely try it. It'll piss off Congress something fierce, but I fully expect John McCain to just be "deeply disturbed" or "very troubled" or whatever the hell he is these days. "John McCain spends every single moment of his life thinking about the fact that Donald Trump is more electable than he is."
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Jun 2, 2017 17:41
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Can Trump use executive privilege if Comey is technically testifying as a citizen?
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Jun 2, 2017 17:42
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LaserShark posted:"What can I do today to make my administration look even more totally corrupt. Wait, I know!" I dunno, how much time do you have? quote:White House orders agencies to ignore Democrats’ oversight requests
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Jun 2, 2017 17:43
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^^^Then you Andy Dufresne the poo poo out of them and KEEP SENDING THEM.Spiritus Nox posted:We've heard this story before. Karen Handel isn't Trump, Jon Ossoff isn't Hillary Clinton, and this is one district in Georgia, not a voting population of 300 million. Seriously? Are you so "lol nothing matters, kill everyone and burn it all down" that you can't see the situations are different? Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Jun 2, 2017 |
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Jun 2, 2017 17:43
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Alter Ego posted:If Trump finds out he can use executive privilege to stop Comey testifying, he will absolutely try it. It'll piss off Congress something fierce, but I fully expect John McCain to just be "deeply disturbed" or "very troubled" or whatever the hell he is these days. Someone needs to send McCain and thesaurus with all of the synonyms for troubling or disturbed easily marked. Just so he has something else to use in his comments. I would also like to see a YouTube compilation of all of the times a GOP never has said those two words in response to something Trump did.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:44
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So I guess we've all decided that everything is hopeless and we should all just lay down and die if Ossoff narrowly loses the election? Good to know we're keeping things in perspective.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:45
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Alter Ego posted:Karen Handel isn't Trump, Jon Ossoff isn't Hillary Clinton, and this is one district in Georgia, not a voting population of 300 million. Seriously? General distrust of polling is pretty understandable at this point though.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:45
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Alter Ego posted:Karen Handel isn't Trump, Jon Ossoff isn't Hillary Clinton, and this is one district in Georgia, not a voting population of 300 million. Seriously? Yeah, seriously. I'm under the impression Ossof's aggregate lead is at about 1 percent, well within the margin of error in a conservative state during a period in which conservatives tend to outperform their polling numbers on election day. There's no real reason to feel particularly optimistic about that.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:47
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Party Plane Jones posted:I dunno, how much time do you have? This seems real bad.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:47
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sean10mm posted:General distrust of polling is pretty understandable at this point though. So far, the special election polling has more or less lined up with the final results. There wasn't ever a poll that put Rob Quist ahead, nor was there ever one that put Thompson ahead in Kansas. Ossoff, however, has run even or ahead of Handel in every poll. I'm not going to stop trusting science because of a single black swan event.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:47
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TRUMP did badly in GA-06. PRICE won it by over 20 points in the same election. It's a heavily, heavily GOP district that doesn't like Trump. If Ossof loses it's not "Democrats hosed forever, can't win anywhere might as well give up." It's a winable race, unlike Montana or Kansas, but it's a losable race even if Dems are moving upwards. If a district that was R+20 at the house level moves to R+1, that's still enormous. Even better if it moves to D+2.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:47
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I know Nicaragua refused to sign because they wanted the Paris Agreement to go further, but they should really just sign on now to further underline the stupidity of Trump. Leave us to stand with Syria.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:47
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DaveWoo posted:So I guess we've all decided that everything is hopeless and we should all just lay down and die if Ossoff narrowly loses the election? Good to know we're keeping things in perspective. Nah, I'll join you in very happily reminding people at the internment camps that Ossoff only lost by 2% and the average margin of loss for the Dems in 2018 was 1.5%, so we're on track to take over any day now once they start elections up again.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:48
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Party Plane Jones posted:I dunno, how much time do you have? ...motherfuckers.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:49
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Spiritus Nox posted:Yeah, seriously. I'm under the impression Ossof's aggregate lead is at about 1 percent, well within the margin of error in a conservative state during a period in which conservatives tend to outperform their polling numbers on election day. There's no real reason to feel particularly optimistic about that. Seems to me it's Democrats outperforming their usual numbers by staggering margins so far. The specials that have been held so far are in blood-red areas that haven't elected a Democrat since the Civil War, so they were long shots at best, but Ossoff is absolutely running the right type of campaign down there. He's a young, fresh face going up against a human bowl of plain oatmeal, and the DNC is throwing tons of money and resources at him. I don't think it's a certainty, but I'd say we have better than a 50/50 chance, given the fact that the district hates Trump. People forget that it didn't happen for the Tea Party all at once either. They lost a lot of their early engagements, and if they'd done what you people are doing now--throw up their hands and give up because "lol everything sucks"--we probably wouldn't need a Democratic wave in 2018. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jun 2, 2017 |
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Jun 2, 2017 17:50
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BRISTOL PALINS BABY posted:I know Nicaragua refused to sign because they wanted the Paris Agreement to go further, but they should really just sign on now to further underline the stupidity of Trump. Leave us to stand with Syria. I want NK to publicly shame America for this. I really, really do.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:51
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Hellblazer187 posted:TRUMP did badly in GA-06. PRICE won it by over 20 points in the same election. It's a heavily, heavily GOP district that doesn't like Trump. If Ossof loses it's not "Democrats hosed forever, can't win anywhere might as well give up." It's a winable race, unlike Montana or Kansas, but it's a losable race even if Dems are moving upwards. If a district that was R+20 at the house level moves to R+1, that's still enormous. Even better if it moves to D+2. We aren't hoping that the Dems barely win the house. We're optimistically hoping that the GOP is crushed in 2018 in a huge wave. In that timeline, Ossof wins with a decent little margin to spare. If Ossof loses, we have to confront the reality that we aren't likely seeing a wave. edit: regarding Price, you are ignoring the advantage of incumbency. Being the incumbent for over a decade can easily be worth another 10 to 15 points, this is an open election.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:53
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LaserShark posted:I want NK to publicly shame America for this. I really, really do. While you and I would see the delicious irony in that, I think that would do more damage to most of America's view on it. I think it's best if they keep quiet and let the adults like China and the EU do most of the shaming.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:53
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What would Trump blocking Comey's testimony do?
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Jun 2, 2017 17:55
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Nah, let NK overstate how green they'll be. Let them boast. Then people will assume they're doing something more than nothing, which is what Trump wants.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:55
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Grouchio posted:What would Trump blocking Comey's testimony do? Possibly cause some Republicans to turn on him; because it'd be the most obvious sign yet that he'd done something bad. I know, nothing matters, but I think this would...a great deal.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:56
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Grouchio posted:What would Trump blocking Comey's testimony do? really harsh my afternoon vibes
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Jun 2, 2017 17:56
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Grouchio posted:What would Trump blocking Comey's testimony do? Honestly, not much, since we have a special counsel the house and senate investigations don't matter as much as they did before Mueller was appointed. We went from "oh God I hope congress does something, please matter" to "lol, who cares about congress, Trump is turbofucked now" with that appointment. We'd be denied possible amusement and several popcorn moments, but the fact that Mueller is going to be investigating Trump with a staff and budget represents the biggest existential threat to Trump, everything else pales in comparison.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:59
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What exactly is the mechanism Trump would use to "block" testimony on EP grounds? Arrest? Lawsuit? Lean on the committee chair?
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Jun 2, 2017 17:59
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Were you feeling too happy today? http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/local/2017/06/02/generations-disabled/?utm_term=.3042a7306caf&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1 There's nothing to quote. Read it all.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:59
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Rigel posted:We aren't hoping that the Dems barely win the house. We're optimistically hoping that the GOP is crushed in 2018 in a huge wave. In that timeline, Ossof wins with a decent little margin to spare. How many house seats had a smaller margin than 20 points in 2016? If the aggregate gain for Dems is 19 points, that's an insane wave, but also not enough to carry Ossof. Wave isn't binary - there are degrees and 19pt wave would be almost unprecidented in modern times. A narrow Ossof loss would still be an indication of House takeover. Also remember that these things take time. That the GOP isn't dead at 5 months doesn't mean the GOP won't be severely wounded at 24, when it really counts. The reverse is also true - Ossof could win by ten, and we might still see the GOP keep the House. Way, way too much stock being put into one race.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:59
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Comey provides the best TV, though. I'd surmise that his testimony will be roughly analogous to John Dean's during Watergate--although maybe he won't read a 4-hour statement. I really hope he has meticulous notes from all his encounters with Trump. I hope all those stories were true.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:00
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FizFashizzle posted:Were you feeling too happy today? Read it earlier today. Pure, uncut moral panic about the poor.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:01
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Hellblazer187 posted:How many house seats had a smaller margin than 20 points in 2016? If the aggregate gain for Dems is 19 points, that's an insane wave, but also not enough to carry Ossof. Wave isn't binary - there are degrees and 19pt wave would be almost unprecidented in modern times. A narrow Ossof loss would still be an indication of House takeover. Price was an incumbent. If the actual partisan lean is D+19, then Ossof does a hell of a lot better than losing by 1, because this isn't actually an R+20 district
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Jun 2, 2017 18:02
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Spaced God posted:Nah, I'll join you in very happily reminding people at the internment camps that Ossoff only lost by 2% and the average margin of loss for the Dems in 2018 was 1.5%, so we're on track to take over any day now once they start elections up again. Grouchio posted:What would Trump blocking Comey's testimony do?
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Jun 2, 2017 18:03
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Rigel posted:Price was an incumbent. If the actual partisan lean is D+19, then Ossof does a hell of a lot better than losing by 1, because this isn't actually an R+20 district I think it's only R+9 or R+10. If the actual lean is D+19 that sweeps Ossoff--and a LOT of other previously red districts--into the Democrats' camp.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:04
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Alter Ego posted:Comey provides the best TV, though. I'd surmise that his testimony will be roughly analogous to John Dean's during Watergate--although maybe he won't read a 4-hour statement. Frankly if he doesn't that'd be a much better reason to fire him than Trump has ever given us. You don't get to be Chief Spook by not obsessively documenting everything you can about someone you're unsure of.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:04
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FizFashizzle posted:Were you feeling too happy today? You should still read it all, but I'm still gonna quote this bit quote:How to visualize the growth in disability in the United States? One way is to think of a map. Rural communities, where on average 9.1 percent of working-age people are on disability — nearly twice the urban rate and 40 percent higher than the national average — are in a brighter shade than cities. An even brighter hue then spreads from Appalachia into the Deep South and out into Missouri, where rates are higher yet, places economists have called “disability belts.” The brightest color of all can be found in 102 counties, mostly within these belts, where a Washington Post analysis of federal statistics estimates that, at minimum, about 1 in 6 working-age residents draw disability checks. Jesus Christ, this whole article loving horrifying. I mean the puppy bit at the start is extraordinarily hosed up, but it doesn't really let up from there The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Jun 2, 2017 |
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Jun 2, 2017 18:05
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Rigel posted:Price was an incumbent. If the actual partisan lean is D+19, then Ossof does a hell of a lot better than losing by 1, because this isn't actually an R+20 district The last time a Democrat held that seat was 1974. Every election since then, the Republican has had a better than 20% margin of victory. Trump carried it by 1.5, but Romney carried it by about 20 as well IIRC. It is a deep red district.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:05
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Crows Turn Off posted:Is Ossoff going to be yet another case of "he only lost by 2% which is good for the Democrats"? If Ossoff loses people will finally be justified in freaking out about a loss. GA-06 is the exact kind of seat the Dems need to pickup in 18.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:06
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Spiritus Nox posted:Frankly if he doesn't that'd be a much better reason to fire him than Trump has ever given us. You don't get to be Chief Spook by not obsessively documenting everything you can about someone you're unsure of. Well, I only mention that because his friend, that guy who keeps popping up on cable TV, said that Comey was obsessive about documenting his encounters with Trump, and that he would have scads of notes ready to go if needed. I hope the guy wasn't lying. I hope to see my friend again and shake his hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it is in my dreams. I hope. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Jun 2, 2017 |
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Jun 2, 2017 18:07
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Hellblazer187 posted:The last time a Democrat held that seat was 1974. Every election since then, the Republican has had a better than 20% margin of victory. Trump carried it by 1.5, but Romney carried it by about 20 as well IIRC. It is a deep red district. Anything before 2012 is worthless due to redistricting, Price's wins are worthless due to incumbency, and this district has had a lot of demographic change. You can't just toss Trump's narrow win aside as a weird outlier, that did happen and it matters a lot. This is not a R+20 district.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:08
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Rigel posted:Anything before 2012 is worthless due to redistricting, Price's wins are worthless due to incumbency, and this district has had a lot of demographic change. You can't just toss Trump's narrow win aside as a weird outlier, that did happen and it matters a lot. This is not a R+20 district. You can't throw away Price's wins or Romney's margin either. It is not an R+1 district.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:10
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