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Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. This would leave me with the following RBs: Gore, Perkins, Powell, Burkhead, West, Sproles. My WRs though would be: OBJ, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Adams, Crowder, Funchess, Aiken, Sharpe.

I feel like the value is definitely there for the trade, but the situation it leaves me in isn't good. I've always heard to draft value and trade for need, does that rule this out even though I really like the value?

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Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. This would leave me with the following RBs: Gore, Perkins, Powell, Burkhead, West, Sproles. My WRs though would be: OBJ, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Adams, Crowder, Funchess, Aiken, Sharpe.

I feel like the value is definitely there for the trade, but the situation it leaves me in isn't good. I've always heard to draft value and trade for need, does that rule this out even though I really like the value?

Seems to good to be true? Adams in a dynasty for a buncha mediocre doodoo, AND you get some other stuff...

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Teemu Pokemon posted:

It's not that he never throws to him, that's not what I'm trying to say, so sorry if that's how it's coming across. It's that he's utilized in a very specific way/has a QB that really doesn't maximize his strengths, so you're hoping for this huge breakout and potential TE1 repeat from a guy who literally has a useage cap just because of the offense he's in. That's a sucker bet imo

This while convo started because someone said Kelce is going to feast without Maclin which I wholeheartedly disagree with. Unless he has a QB that can really hit him consistently above that second level, he's not really going to be markedly better than he has been the last two years, which is a fine TE, but not "TE1"

That's why I brought up the fact that he had the lowest scoring TE1 season in a few years, because just because he was once a TE1 in name, doesn't mean we can assume he's jumped up to that tier now, rather that everyone else was so poo poo that he was able to lead the pack in a down year by just doing what he has/will do every year with Alex Smith throwing him the ball.

I really don't disagree with anything you just said so maybe we were talking past each other.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Drunk Nerds posted:

Seems to good to be true? Adams in a dynasty for a buncha mediocre doodoo, AND you get some other stuff...

I don't know if Hyde is mediocre doodoo, but I agree it's a good trade.

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I don't know if Hyde is mediocre doodoo, but I agree it's a good trade.

That's true, hyde seems quite likely to get traded to a better situation, at least from what I'm hearing

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. This would leave me with the following RBs: Gore, Perkins, Powell, Burkhead, West, Sproles. My WRs though would be: OBJ, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Adams, Crowder, Funchess, Aiken, Sharpe.

I feel like the value is definitely there for the trade, but the situation it leaves me in isn't good. I've always heard to draft value and trade for need, does that rule this out even though I really like the value?

The only hesitation I have is that Davante Adams might still be doodoo. Maybe it doesn't matter, as Rodgers needs someone to throw the ball too. But when I checked some efficiency stats from 2016 earlier this off season, Adams was like bottom third of 80ish qualified receivers in terms of things like drops, catch rate, red zone efficiency, other stuff I'm forgetting, while Jordy was still like top 25%. Like, Adams was at best average to mediocre, he just happened to get a little lucky with touchdowns and have little competition besides Jordy. Maybe I'm being unfair and he's really turned a corner, but I don't think he was dramatically better than 2015, he just had Jordy to soften up defenses for him and no one else to catch passes from Rodgers.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
I'll take an 80-year-old Frank Gore over CJ Anderson and his poo poo committee any day

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
Yeah, Hyde is more the piece I'm sad about losing than CJA, but he's the piece that the other owner wants too so I doubt the trade goes down without him involved.

Zombie Tsunami
Jun 22, 2006

Teemu Pokemon posted:

I went wire to wire in a league where I drafted Keenan Allen, and that was mostly due to taking DeMarco Murray instead of a guy like Kelce, so what actually means jack poo poo is your anecdotal evidence when like 6 of us have spent the last 4 years piling up mountains of data that suggest that drafting a TE that isn't Gronk has like a 75% chance being at best a mediocre pick

4 years ago, I drafted Jimmy Graham at 1.7 in a ppr dynasty start-up. And that was his exact ADP!

It all seemed so simple back then...


Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlkxcC79LA8

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

Yeah, Hyde is more the piece I'm sad about losing than CJA, but he's the piece that the other owner wants too so I doubt the trade goes down without him involved.

Just take the trade. Remember that running backs are viable for far less than good wide receivers, so in a dynasty league he could be a long term asset.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
He's walked back the offer (which to be fair he did say he wasn't 100% on and that it was just an idea) so I think he realized he was about to trade for Carlos Hyde and CJA and what a bad idea that was.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

He's walked back the offer (which to be fair he did say he wasn't 100% on and that it was just an idea) so I think he realized he was about to trade for Carlos Hyde and CJA and what a bad idea that was.

Yeah, it was an insta-mash trade before he realized what he was doing. You took too long.

Adams is not very efficient, but for fantasy, efficiency is not as important as opportunity.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Sure, but being actually good at football makes the guy more likely to keep getting opportunity.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



RVProfootballer posted:

Sure, but being actually good at football makes the guy more likely to keep getting opportunity.

I'm more saying his role is very clearly defined. He's just good enough to keep getting those opportunities. Gone are the days when Green Bay drafted a superstar receiver every mid round. He's the number two receiver for Rodgers, which makes up for his inefficiency. These are judgements that have to be made on a case by case basis. In this case, his opportunities make up for his issues.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Sataere posted:

I'm more saying his role is very clearly defined. He's just good enough to keep getting those opportunities. Gone are the days when Green Bay drafted a superstar receiver every mid round. He's the number two receiver for Rodgers, which makes up for his inefficiency. These are judgements that have to be made on a case by case basis. In this case, his opportunities make up for his issues.

Adams is interesting. People expected him to take a huge step forward in 2015 when Nelson went down, but he didn't really do much with that opportunity. Now I know he had some injury issues which for sure contributed but even taking that into account, he definitely underperformed. Last year was a HUGE step forward for Adams in terms of stats. He doubled his yardage from the previous year, nearly breaking 1k, and had 12 TD's which is ridiculous. But this was with a healthy Nelson & Cobb who were likely drawing the top coverage. I think he continues to improve this year, but his TD's will go down with Bennett coming to GB (and would probably go down in general). Do we also expect Cobb to look as bad as he did last year?

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

MrSargent posted:

Do we also expect Cobb to look as bad as he did last year?

I don't know, but he went 18-260-3 on 24 targets in three playoff games.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
Cobb will be a great WR2 unless you draft him

VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010

Teemu Pokemon posted:

Cobb will be a great WR2 unless you draft him

This is me but with Doug Martin.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
Randall Cobb is an WR3 who will get overdrafted on name recognition. He hasn't lived up to his ADP in a couple years now.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
I'm lolling out loud IRL that Keenan Allen injury insurance is already hurt and might not be ready for training camp

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it






:thunk::thunk::thunk:

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
Hey I'm a few beers in and did this exercise at the start of the offseason, just looking at the ADP rounds and making off-the-cuff hot takes. Now that we're close to training camp, let's re-evaluate the draft consensus and look for potential steals/reaches.

ADP Source: https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

First round

1. David Johnson
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Antonio Brown
5. Julio Jones
6. Odell Beckham Jr.
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Melvin Gordon
9 Mike Evans
10. A.J. Green
11. Devonta Freeman
12. Jordan Howard

The top 3 RBs and top 3 WRs are firmly set, and you honestly can't go wrong with any of those choices. Good year to have a top-6 pick. Gordon at 8 seems generous with his injury history, and I'm wary of Howard being a one-year wonder, but otherwise, most of this round feels right.

Second round

13. Jordy Nelson
14. DeMarco Murray
15. Jay Ajayi
16. Michael Thomas
17. Todd Gurley
18. T.Y. Hilton
19. Dez Bryant
20. Rob Gronkowski
21. Lamar Miller
22. Amari Cooper
23. Aaron Rodgers
24. Leonard Fournette

Gurley at 17 is an awful leap of faith -- he deserves some blame for the Rams' offense bottoming out. If he was going a round or two later I'd take the plunge, but I don't like that price for a guy who's been more name than game for 1 1/2 seasons. At least TY is finally getting drafted where he deserves, I can't get a bargain this year. :( Gronk is also a leap of faith, but when healthy he's the undisputed TE1, so it makes sense. Don't draft Amari in the second when you can get Crabtree 2 rounds later for similar or better numbers. Fournette ... well, better hope he lives up to the hype at that price.

Third round

25. Brandin Cooks
26. Marshawn Lynch
27. DeAndre Hopkins
28. Doug Baldwin
29. Isaiah Crowell
30. Tom Brady
31. Alshon Jeffery
32. Spencer Ware
33. Allen Robinson
34. Carlos Hyde
35. Davante Adams
36. Terrelle Pryor

Marshawn is my favorite football player of all time. He's also 30 years old, hasn't played in a year and looked like an injury-riddled washout his last time out. Uh, good luck taking him at 26. Hopkins seems like a lock to outperform his ADP without Brock making GBS threads up the field. I don't like Hyde in this spot, given all the smoke about him not fitting into Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Pryor is fun but risky drafting that high.

Fourth round

37. Demaryius Thomas
38. Sammy Watkins
39. Travis Kelce
40. Eddie Lacy
41. Drew Brees
42. Keenan Allen
43. Adrian Peterson
44. Doug Martin
45. CJ Anderson
46. Tyreek Hill
47. Jordan Reed
48. Michael Crabtree

I pity the fool who takes an old/overrated RB stuck in a lovely committee. AP and CJA should be hands-off on any sensible draft board. Fat Eddie is now on my team so I have to be a homer for him, but even I wouldn't draft him in the early fourth round. Keenan would be a bargain if he doesn't crumble to dust (he will). I feel like Tyreek will be exposed as a No. 1 WR, but he'll still bust enough huge plays to not be a total waste.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Imagine drafting Melvin Gordon before Shady or Devonta or DeMarco Murray tho

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Benne posted:

Randall Cobb is an WR3 who will get overdrafted on name recognition. He hasn't lived up to his ADP in a couple years now.

When he's playing in the slot and he and Jordy are both healthy, he should be in the top-25 WRs fairly comfortably. That has only happened for a few games since like 2014 but when it did

RVProfootballer posted:

he went 18-260-3 on 24 targets in three playoff games.


If all three Packers WRs are healthy, I could very easily see Cobb being a better ADP bargain than Adams

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Benne posted:

Second round

13. Jordy Nelson
14. DeMarco Murray
15. Jay Ajayi
16. Michael Thomas
17. Todd Gurley
18. T.Y. Hilton
19. Dez Bryant
20. Rob Gronkowski
21. Lamar Miller
22. Amari Cooper
23. Aaron Rodgers
24. Leonard Fournette

Gurley at 17 is an awful leap of faith -- he deserves some blame for the Rams' offense bottoming out. If he was going a round or two later I'd take the plunge, but I don't like that price for a guy who's been more name than game for 1 1/2 seasons. At least TY is finally getting drafted where he deserves, I can't get a bargain this year. :( Gronk is also a leap of faith, but when healthy he's the undisputed TE1, so it makes sense. Don't draft Amari in the second when you can get Crabtree 2 rounds later for similar or better numbers. Fournette ... well, better hope he lives up to the hype at that price.
Agree about Gurley/Cooper; they're not worth this price. I'm high on Dez and Gronk at these spots. First round talents with injury discounts are always tempting. Just need to prep for the worst in case. I could be sold on Fournette but I can't currently buy him at a 2nd/3rd round price when that offense has a pretty high risk of being dysfunctional.

quote:

Third round

25. Brandin Cooks
26. Marshawn Lynch
27. DeAndre Hopkins
28. Doug Baldwin
29. Isaiah Crowell
30. Tom Brady
31. Alshon Jeffery
32. Spencer Ware
33. Allen Robinson
34. Carlos Hyde
35. Davante Adams
36. Terrelle Pryor

Marshawn is my favorite football player of all time. He's also 30 years old, hasn't played in a year and looked like an injury-riddled washout his last time out. Uh, good luck taking him at 26. Hopkins seems like a lock to outperform his ADP without Brock making GBS threads up the field. I don't like Hyde in this spot, given all the smoke about him not fitting into Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Pryor is fun but risky drafting that high.
I would take Isaiah Crowell before either Gurley/Fournette... but in the top 30? That doesn't sit right with me but I might do it. Not touching Pryor in the third either. Everyone is really high on him but I'm not sold. Cooks is being taken too high; he won't be bad but his share of the Pats offense won't be large enough to satisfy this high of an ADP. Really a lot of these names should be going later than the third. I think Baldwin is my favorite target here. Or maybe Brady. You could probably take Brady anywhere in the draft and it'll be worth it.

quote:

Fourth round

37. Demaryius Thomas
38. Sammy Watkins
39. Travis Kelce
40. Eddie Lacy
41. Drew Brees
42. Keenan Allen
43. Adrian Peterson
44. Doug Martin
45. CJ Anderson
46. Tyreek Hill
47. Jordan Reed
48. Michael Crabtree

I pity the fool who takes an old/overrated RB stuck in a lovely committee. AP and CJA should be hands-off on any sensible draft board. Fat Eddie is now on my team so I have to be a homer for him, but even I wouldn't draft him in the early fourth round. Keenan would be a bargain if he doesn't crumble to dust (he will). I feel like Tyreek will be exposed as a No. 1 WR, but he'll still bust enough huge plays to not be a total waste.
Watkins and Allen feel like great buys at these prices. I love to gamble on elite players returning from injury. Thomas is priced well here but I think I'd rather have Sanders a round or two later. I need more training camp info about AP/Martin/CJA to decide now but I'm not scared by a 4th round ADP. Just need to hear the right things first. Not touching Lacy here; Seattle showed they can't pull off magic with their garbage o-line every year and I'm not convinced Rawls can't outplay him. Also if I'm sitting at 4.11 and Jordan Reed is there, I'm taking him every time. Unless he gets injured before drafts, then I'll take him several rounds later. He really ought to stop playing football but I'll keep drafting him until he does.

Cat Hassler
Feb 7, 2006

Slippery Tilde
I don't trust Shady to stay healthy. Older RBs have given me so many headaches

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

Imagine drafting Melvin Gordon before Shady or Devonta or DeMarco Murray tho

I'm imagining it and going to do it too!

Also I love DT and Keenan in the 4th.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I think a lack of Brock will make Miller a guy who can outperform his ADP.

I need to see what Gurley does this preseason, but I think his performance last season is not entirely on him. Wasn't he getting blown up in the backfield all year?

I also think Cooper is a guy who could outperform his draft spot. He's entering his third season and it is way too early to say he has reached his ceiling. I think the expectations for him coming up have caused a weirdly inverse effect where because he didn't meet those lofty goals right away, his upside is now being undervalued.

Michael Thomas is rated way too high. It assumes Brees will not start to regress, which is not a given.

Doug Martin is way too high for a guy missing multiple games.

I am curious just how much that list changes during training camp, because I hate a lot of thuse projections after the first round.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
With respect to Michael Thomas, I'm not even worried about Brees regressing. I'm worried about Thomas drawing top coverage and whether he can be the guy. Even if he can, "the guy" in that offense has his upside capped at about what we saw from him last year.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Ground Control was not particularly kind to Doug Martin, Gordon, and Gurley in 2016.

This is not in any way intended as a prediction (if they get volume and/or touchdowns they will be fantasy startable), but it does make me nervous at their ADP.

edit: draft steals at current ADP in ppr are all in rounds 10-12 for me. Jordan Matthews (117), Marvin Jones (118), James White (123), Adam Thielen (125), Terrance West (127), Breshad Perriman (133), Jack Doyle (133), Duke Johnson (135), Kevin White (136) all seem crazy value right now. These dudes are basically free, and all have clear top-30 upside.

Folks were also sleeping on Quincy Enunwa, but those days are probably over.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Jun 7, 2017

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Forever_Peace posted:

Ground Control was not particularly kind to Doug Martin, Gordon, and Gurley in 2016.

This is not in any way intended as a prediction (if they get volume and/or touchdowns they will be fantasy startable), but it does make me nervous at their ADP.

Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I put this up on Reddit but figured I would share it here:

quote:

Redskins fan here. The only thing I would be comfortable saying is that Chris Thompson should be a reliable PPR flex play. How the rest of the position pans out between Perine, Marshall, Brown, and Kelley is going to be extremely difficult to establish. With Jones gone Perine has the highest draft pedigree of those remaining, and also has the aura of being "their" guy as opposed to McCloughan's picks.

"Technically No Longer Fat" Rob has cut his body fat percentage down to 13% and reports indicate that he's shown more athleticism and explosiveness in OTAs. Whether or not that matters given the political and athletic environment will depend on training camp, but Gruden has started rookies without hesitation in the past.

Samaje Perine is an absolute bruiser, and what he lacks in agility he makes up for in brutality. He is an ideal goal-line back, an area where the Redskins desperately need help (Washington was 30th in Red Zone scores in 2016), and stands apart from the competition in terms of raw toughness. He also has the physical traits necessary to endure the grueling pace of a lead back in the NFL. Seriously, just [read this](http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=210262415).

Keith Marshall was drafted in the 7th round last year due to his 4.31 speed in spite of being 220 pounds. He was drafted by McCloughan on upside and speed, did little to demonstrate that upside in last year's preseason, and then got hurt and was put on IR for an elbow injury. At this point Marshall is another lottery ticket who might not make the roster, especially given the concerns about his injury history and lack of vision.

Mack Brown was cut last year's preseason, made the practice squad, was signed from the squad after Matt Jones couldn't play in October, and rushed a grand total of 8 times. It's unlikely that he'll even make the roster this year.

So what do I think? There's a reason that Samaje Perine is getting so much hype in the preseason, and that's because his skill set and athleticism simply sets himself apart from the rest of the backfield. Where Marshall is a burner and Kelley is trying to get more agile, Perine is simply a battering ram. I consider his goal line ability alone to be worth focusing on.

I'm focusing on drafting Perine, and I consider Thompson to be a no brainer late round flyer in PPR leagues.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jun 7, 2017

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007
I drafted Samaje in dynasty based solely on him being a bruiser type. I hope he pans out.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Sataere posted:

Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else?

Even if so, has the Rams' o-line improved at all?

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

RVProfootballer posted:

Even if so, has the Rams' o-line improved at all?

They've gained a season of experience!

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Rams O-Line wasn't the one not able to make people miss in the open field and going down when someone breathed on him too hard though.

Go watch a couple games of Gurley. It was B A D. Bad.

The 49ers were one of the worst rush defenses of ALL TIME last year and he went 23 for 67 at home
on xmas eve

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Jun 7, 2017

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
Yeah Gurley was legit bad last year and I don't buy the "he had no help" argument. Steven Jackson had poo poo O-lines for a decade and was still a rock-solid RB1. Gurley was part of the problem, not a helpless bystander.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
I was more thinking that there's little reason to expect improvement from Gurley, whereas Gordon has some reasons to expect efficiency improvements.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I only referenced ground control, because I did not watch any Rams games. If I wanted to watch bad football, I had the Bears. I might have to go back. Can you get a 2016 game pass?

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Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Forever_Peace posted:

Adam Thielen (125)

I'm going to try to not poo poo this thread up with don't draft Vikings but

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