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I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. This would leave me with the following RBs: Gore, Perkins, Powell, Burkhead, West, Sproles. My WRs though would be: OBJ, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Adams, Crowder, Funchess, Aiken, Sharpe. I feel like the value is definitely there for the trade, but the situation it leaves me in isn't good. I've always heard to draft value and trade for need, does that rule this out even though I really like the value?
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# ? Jun 5, 2017 20:41 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 17:50 |
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. This would leave me with the following RBs: Gore, Perkins, Powell, Burkhead, West, Sproles. My WRs though would be: OBJ, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Adams, Crowder, Funchess, Aiken, Sharpe. Seems to good to be true? Adams in a dynasty for a buncha mediocre doodoo, AND you get some other stuff...
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# ? Jun 5, 2017 21:46 |
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Teemu Pokemon posted:It's not that he never throws to him, that's not what I'm trying to say, so sorry if that's how it's coming across. It's that he's utilized in a very specific way/has a QB that really doesn't maximize his strengths, so you're hoping for this huge breakout and potential TE1 repeat from a guy who literally has a useage cap just because of the offense he's in. That's a sucker bet imo I really don't disagree with anything you just said so maybe we were talking past each other.
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# ? Jun 5, 2017 23:31 |
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Drunk Nerds posted:Seems to good to be true? Adams in a dynasty for a buncha mediocre doodoo, AND you get some other stuff... I don't know if Hyde is mediocre doodoo, but I agree it's a good trade.
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# ? Jun 5, 2017 23:35 |
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I don't know if Hyde is mediocre doodoo, but I agree it's a good trade. That's true, hyde seems quite likely to get traded to a better situation, at least from what I'm hearing
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 00:43 |
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. This would leave me with the following RBs: Gore, Perkins, Powell, Burkhead, West, Sproles. My WRs though would be: OBJ, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Adams, Crowder, Funchess, Aiken, Sharpe. The only hesitation I have is that Davante Adams might still be doodoo. Maybe it doesn't matter, as Rodgers needs someone to throw the ball too. But when I checked some efficiency stats from 2016 earlier this off season, Adams was like bottom third of 80ish qualified receivers in terms of things like drops, catch rate, red zone efficiency, other stuff I'm forgetting, while Jordy was still like top 25%. Like, Adams was at best average to mediocre, he just happened to get a little lucky with touchdowns and have little competition besides Jordy. Maybe I'm being unfair and he's really turned a corner, but I don't think he was dramatically better than 2015, he just had Jordy to soften up defenses for him and no one else to catch passes from Rodgers.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 01:00 |
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I'll take an 80-year-old Frank Gore over CJ Anderson and his poo poo committee any day
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 03:13 |
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Yeah, Hyde is more the piece I'm sad about losing than CJA, but he's the piece that the other owner wants too so I doubt the trade goes down without him involved.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 03:16 |
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I went wire to wire in a league where I drafted Keenan Allen, and that was mostly due to taking DeMarco Murray instead of a guy like Kelce, so what actually means jack poo poo is your anecdotal evidence when like 6 of us have spent the last 4 years piling up mountains of data that suggest that drafting a TE that isn't Gronk has like a 75% chance being at best a mediocre pick 4 years ago, I drafted Jimmy Graham at 1.7 in a ppr dynasty start-up. And that was his exact ADP! It all seemed so simple back then... Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I need a sanity check here. I just got an offer (dynasty, 2 RB 2 WR 3 Flex) of Davante Adams plus Gore plus 2.5 for Hyde and CJA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlkxcC79LA8
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 04:14 |
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:Yeah, Hyde is more the piece I'm sad about losing than CJA, but he's the piece that the other owner wants too so I doubt the trade goes down without him involved. Just take the trade. Remember that running backs are viable for far less than good wide receivers, so in a dynasty league he could be a long term asset.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 05:06 |
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He's walked back the offer (which to be fair he did say he wasn't 100% on and that it was just an idea) so I think he realized he was about to trade for Carlos Hyde and CJA and what a bad idea that was.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 07:09 |
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:He's walked back the offer (which to be fair he did say he wasn't 100% on and that it was just an idea) so I think he realized he was about to trade for Carlos Hyde and CJA and what a bad idea that was. Yeah, it was an insta-mash trade before he realized what he was doing. You took too long. Adams is not very efficient, but for fantasy, efficiency is not as important as opportunity.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 13:37 |
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Sure, but being actually good at football makes the guy more likely to keep getting opportunity.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 13:55 |
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RVProfootballer posted:Sure, but being actually good at football makes the guy more likely to keep getting opportunity. I'm more saying his role is very clearly defined. He's just good enough to keep getting those opportunities. Gone are the days when Green Bay drafted a superstar receiver every mid round. He's the number two receiver for Rodgers, which makes up for his inefficiency. These are judgements that have to be made on a case by case basis. In this case, his opportunities make up for his issues.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 14:04 |
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Sataere posted:I'm more saying his role is very clearly defined. He's just good enough to keep getting those opportunities. Gone are the days when Green Bay drafted a superstar receiver every mid round. He's the number two receiver for Rodgers, which makes up for his inefficiency. These are judgements that have to be made on a case by case basis. In this case, his opportunities make up for his issues. Adams is interesting. People expected him to take a huge step forward in 2015 when Nelson went down, but he didn't really do much with that opportunity. Now I know he had some injury issues which for sure contributed but even taking that into account, he definitely underperformed. Last year was a HUGE step forward for Adams in terms of stats. He doubled his yardage from the previous year, nearly breaking 1k, and had 12 TD's which is ridiculous. But this was with a healthy Nelson & Cobb who were likely drawing the top coverage. I think he continues to improve this year, but his TD's will go down with Bennett coming to GB (and would probably go down in general). Do we also expect Cobb to look as bad as he did last year?
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 23:27 |
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MrSargent posted:Do we also expect Cobb to look as bad as he did last year? I don't know, but he went 18-260-3 on 24 targets in three playoff games.
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# ? Jun 6, 2017 23:59 |
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Cobb will be a great WR2 unless you draft him
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 00:50 |
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Cobb will be a great WR2 unless you draft him This is me but with Doug Martin.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 01:24 |
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Randall Cobb is an WR3 who will get overdrafted on name recognition. He hasn't lived up to his ADP in a couple years now.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 04:47 |
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I'm lolling out loud IRL that Keenan Allen injury insurance is already hurt and might not be ready for training camp
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 05:09 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 05:15 |
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Hey I'm a few beers in and did this exercise at the start of the offseason, just looking at the ADP rounds and making off-the-cuff hot takes. Now that we're close to training camp, let's re-evaluate the draft consensus and look for potential steals/reaches. ADP Source: https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp First round 1. David Johnson 2. Le'Veon Bell 3. Ezekiel Elliott 4. Antonio Brown 5. Julio Jones 6. Odell Beckham Jr. 7. LeSean McCoy 8. Melvin Gordon 9 Mike Evans 10. A.J. Green 11. Devonta Freeman 12. Jordan Howard The top 3 RBs and top 3 WRs are firmly set, and you honestly can't go wrong with any of those choices. Good year to have a top-6 pick. Gordon at 8 seems generous with his injury history, and I'm wary of Howard being a one-year wonder, but otherwise, most of this round feels right. Second round 13. Jordy Nelson 14. DeMarco Murray 15. Jay Ajayi 16. Michael Thomas 17. Todd Gurley 18. T.Y. Hilton 19. Dez Bryant 20. Rob Gronkowski 21. Lamar Miller 22. Amari Cooper 23. Aaron Rodgers 24. Leonard Fournette Gurley at 17 is an awful leap of faith -- he deserves some blame for the Rams' offense bottoming out. If he was going a round or two later I'd take the plunge, but I don't like that price for a guy who's been more name than game for 1 1/2 seasons. At least TY is finally getting drafted where he deserves, I can't get a bargain this year. Gronk is also a leap of faith, but when healthy he's the undisputed TE1, so it makes sense. Don't draft Amari in the second when you can get Crabtree 2 rounds later for similar or better numbers. Fournette ... well, better hope he lives up to the hype at that price. Third round 25. Brandin Cooks 26. Marshawn Lynch 27. DeAndre Hopkins 28. Doug Baldwin 29. Isaiah Crowell 30. Tom Brady 31. Alshon Jeffery 32. Spencer Ware 33. Allen Robinson 34. Carlos Hyde 35. Davante Adams 36. Terrelle Pryor Marshawn is my favorite football player of all time. He's also 30 years old, hasn't played in a year and looked like an injury-riddled washout his last time out. Uh, good luck taking him at 26. Hopkins seems like a lock to outperform his ADP without Brock making GBS threads up the field. I don't like Hyde in this spot, given all the smoke about him not fitting into Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Pryor is fun but risky drafting that high. Fourth round 37. Demaryius Thomas 38. Sammy Watkins 39. Travis Kelce 40. Eddie Lacy 41. Drew Brees 42. Keenan Allen 43. Adrian Peterson 44. Doug Martin 45. CJ Anderson 46. Tyreek Hill 47. Jordan Reed 48. Michael Crabtree I pity the fool who takes an old/overrated RB stuck in a lovely committee. AP and CJA should be hands-off on any sensible draft board. Fat Eddie is now on my team so I have to be a homer for him, but even I wouldn't draft him in the early fourth round. Keenan would be a bargain if he doesn't crumble to dust (he will). I feel like Tyreek will be exposed as a No. 1 WR, but he'll still bust enough huge plays to not be a total waste.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 05:26 |
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Imagine drafting Melvin Gordon before Shady or Devonta or DeMarco Murray tho
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 05:30 |
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Benne posted:Randall Cobb is an WR3 who will get overdrafted on name recognition. He hasn't lived up to his ADP in a couple years now. When he's playing in the slot and he and Jordy are both healthy, he should be in the top-25 WRs fairly comfortably. That has only happened for a few games since like 2014 but when it did RVProfootballer posted:he went 18-260-3 on 24 targets in three playoff games. If all three Packers WRs are healthy, I could very easily see Cobb being a better ADP bargain than Adams
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 05:37 |
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Benne posted:Second round quote:Third round quote:Fourth round
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 07:33 |
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I don't trust Shady to stay healthy. Older RBs have given me so many headaches
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 08:22 |
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Spoeank posted:Imagine drafting Melvin Gordon before Shady or Devonta or DeMarco Murray tho I'm imagining it and going to do it too! Also I love DT and Keenan in the 4th.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 11:59 |
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I think a lack of Brock will make Miller a guy who can outperform his ADP. I need to see what Gurley does this preseason, but I think his performance last season is not entirely on him. Wasn't he getting blown up in the backfield all year? I also think Cooper is a guy who could outperform his draft spot. He's entering his third season and it is way too early to say he has reached his ceiling. I think the expectations for him coming up have caused a weirdly inverse effect where because he didn't meet those lofty goals right away, his upside is now being undervalued. Michael Thomas is rated way too high. It assumes Brees will not start to regress, which is not a given. Doug Martin is way too high for a guy missing multiple games. I am curious just how much that list changes during training camp, because I hate a lot of thuse projections after the first round.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 15:57 |
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With respect to Michael Thomas, I'm not even worried about Brees regressing. I'm worried about Thomas drawing top coverage and whether he can be the guy. Even if he can, "the guy" in that offense has his upside capped at about what we saw from him last year.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:05 |
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Ground Control was not particularly kind to Doug Martin, Gordon, and Gurley in 2016. This is not in any way intended as a prediction (if they get volume and/or touchdowns they will be fantasy startable), but it does make me nervous at their ADP. edit: draft steals at current ADP in ppr are all in rounds 10-12 for me. Jordan Matthews (117), Marvin Jones (118), James White (123), Adam Thielen (125), Terrance West (127), Breshad Perriman (133), Jack Doyle (133), Duke Johnson (135), Kevin White (136) all seem crazy value right now. These dudes are basically free, and all have clear top-30 upside. Folks were also sleeping on Quincy Enunwa, but those days are probably over. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Jun 7, 2017 |
# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:24 |
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Forever_Peace posted:Ground Control was not particularly kind to Doug Martin, Gordon, and Gurley in 2016. Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else?
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:33 |
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I put this up on Reddit but figured I would share it here:quote:Redskins fan here. The only thing I would be comfortable saying is that Chris Thompson should be a reliable PPR flex play. How the rest of the position pans out between Perine, Marshall, Brown, and Kelley is going to be extremely difficult to establish. With Jones gone Perine has the highest draft pedigree of those remaining, and also has the aura of being "their" guy as opposed to McCloughan's picks. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jun 7, 2017 |
# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:40 |
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I drafted Samaje in dynasty based solely on him being a bruiser type. I hope he pans out.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:43 |
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Sataere posted:Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else? Even if so, has the Rams' o-line improved at all?
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:46 |
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RVProfootballer posted:Even if so, has the Rams' o-line improved at all? They've gained a season of experience!
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 16:47 |
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Rams O-Line wasn't the one not able to make people miss in the open field and going down when someone breathed on him too hard though. Go watch a couple games of Gurley. It was B A D. Bad. The 49ers were one of the worst rush defenses of ALL TIME last year and he went 23 for 67 at home on xmas eve Spoeank fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Jun 7, 2017 |
# ? Jun 7, 2017 19:29 |
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Yeah Gurley was legit bad last year and I don't buy the "he had no help" argument. Steven Jackson had poo poo O-lines for a decade and was still a rock-solid RB1. Gurley was part of the problem, not a helpless bystander.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 21:19 |
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I was more thinking that there's little reason to expect improvement from Gurley, whereas Gordon has some reasons to expect efficiency improvements.
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# ? Jun 7, 2017 23:58 |
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I only referenced ground control, because I did not watch any Rams games. If I wanted to watch bad football, I had the Bears. I might have to go back. Can you get a 2016 game pass?
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# ? Jun 8, 2017 00:15 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 17:50 |
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Forever_Peace posted:Adam Thielen (125) I'm going to try to not poo poo this thread up with don't draft Vikings but
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# ? Jun 8, 2017 02:07 |